Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for 10-20252026-26
in Madagascar

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone 10-20252026-26 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1001256
Name 10-20252026-26
From - To 06 Feb - 06 Feb
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population 1.2 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 148 km/h Category 1
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (09 Feb 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
WMO-RSMC La Réunion 148 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF n.a n.a. n.a. n.a.
GFS n.a n.a. n.a. n.a.
ECMWF 68 km/h 0.7 m 343 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Madagascar - Tropical cyclone 10-20252026 (ECHO 06 Feb 2026)Fri, 06 Feb 2026 12:08

  • A tropical storm formed over the South West Indian Ocean, north-east of the coast of eastern Madagascar. On 6 February at 00:00 UTC, its centre was located offshore, approximately 600 km northeast of Mauritius and 1 000 km northeast of Madagascar, with maximum sustained winds of 63 km/h.
  • On the forecast track, the tropical storm is expected to continue moving south-west and then east over the Ocean, passing north of Reunion and Mauritius between 8 and 9 February, strengthening to a Category 3 tropical cyclone, and making landfall over eastern Madagascar on 11 February with maximum sustained winds of 106 km/h.
  • Madagascar was affected by the tropical cyclone FYTIA between 29 January and 4 February, which caused 12 fatalities and 31 480 displaced people.
  • Over the next 72 hours, showers are forecast over Madagascar.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2026. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (40), WMO (1), INFORM (2), (1),