Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for DUMAZILE-18 in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar from 02 Mar 2018 12:00 UTC to 03 Mar 2018 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for DUMAZILE-18

in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DUMAZILE-18 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	213 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (04 Mar 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Reunion)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	213 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	213 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

213 km/h Current Max.

Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	02 Mar 2018 12:00	194	8.8 million	No people	Madagascar, Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
2	02 Mar 2018 18:00	213	8.6 million	No people	Madagascar, Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
3	03 Mar 2018 00:00	213	8.3 million	No people	Madagascar, Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	02 Mar 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-12.6, 54.2
2	02 Mar 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-12.8, 54.4
3	03 Mar 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	<1000 people	-14.1, 54.2	Madagascar
3	03 Mar 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	1.5 million people	-15.6, 53.4	Madagascar
3	04 Mar 2018 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	3.6 million people	-17.2, 52.4	Madagascar
3	04 Mar 2018 12:00	Category 2	157	no people	7 million people	-19, 51.7	Madagascar
3	05 Mar 2018 00:00	Category 3	185	no people	6.8 million people	-20.7, 51.6	Madagascar
3	06 Mar 2018 00:00	Category 4	213	no people	2.2 million people	-24.1, 53.1	Madagascar
3	07 Mar 2018 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	840000 people	-26.7, 55.1	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
3	08 Mar 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-29.4, 57.5

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Andrangazaha, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 04 Mar 2018 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (70 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 3 of 03 Mar 2018 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	04 Mar 2018 02:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 03:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 02:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 05:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 22:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 22:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 03:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 03:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 06:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 22:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Mar 2018 16:00	Befasy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Mar 2018 16:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Mar 2018 16:00	Manambondro	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 09:00	Tamatave	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 01:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 00:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 22:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 22:00	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 22:00	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 00:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 01:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 05:00	Itenina	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 19:00	Ratsianarana	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 19:00	Ambodivato	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 01:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 15:00	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 11:00	Amboditafara	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 11:00	Kalomalala	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 15:00	Manakambahiny	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 16:00	Akondro	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 04:00	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 19:00	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 22:00	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 22:00	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 04:00	Ambinanysahavary	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 04:00	Taratasy	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 09:00	Ankarefo	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 09:00	Marofinaritra	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 09:00	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 19:00	Ampanavoana	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 22:00	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 16:00	Ambohitralanana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 09:00	Tampina	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 16:00	Manantenina	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.