Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LUCAS-21 in New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands on 31 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LUCAS-21

in New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands

31 Jan 2021 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LUCAS-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	120 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (03 Feb 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (New Caledonia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	139 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	120 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

139 km/h Current Max.

Up to <1000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
	1	31 Jan 2021 00:00	139	300 thousand	Few people	New Caledonia

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	31 Jan 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-13.9, 152.3
1	31 Jan 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-13.8, 154.8
1	01 Feb 2021 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-14.3, 157.9
1	01 Feb 2021 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-15.4, 161.2
1	02 Feb 2021 00:00	Category 1	139	<1000 people	300000 people	-16.9, 164.2
1	03 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	280000 people	-20.5, 167.4
1	04 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	190000 people	-22.7, 168
1	05 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-24.3, 166.8

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
New Caledonia

Provinces

Region Province	Country
New Caledonia	New Caledonia

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Nang, New Caledonia. This height is estimated for 03 Feb 2021 03:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (60 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 1 of 31 Jan 2021 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	03 Feb 2021 03:00	Nang	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 06:00	Inagod	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 00:00	Wegnec St-Joseph	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 00:00	Teouta	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 14:00	Miramas	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 17:00	Plum	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 16:00	Saint-Louis	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 14:00	Dumbea	New Caledonia	0.2
	04 Feb 2021 00:00	Gadji	New Caledonia	0.2
	04 Feb 2021 00:00	Wapan	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 13:00	Prony	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 04:00	Dosip	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 16:00	Tomo	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 12:00	Nece	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 16:00	Bouloupari	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 02:00	Ognat	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 05:00	Chepenehe	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 19:00	Yate-Village	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 19:00	Waho	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 13:00	Tadine	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 03:00	Tingeting	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 12:00	Wabao	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 12:00	Medu	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 13:00	Eni	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 16:00	Noumea	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 16:00	Comm. du Mont-Dore	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 03:00	Hunete	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 22:00	Kuto	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 22:00	Vao	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 19:00	Ouara	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 06:00	Wadrilla	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 10:00	Ro	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 10:00	Thogone	New Caledonia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 19:00	Hekampan	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 15:00	Goro	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 02:00	Doking	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 02:00	Nathalo	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 06:00	Mou	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 16:00	Nouville	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 06:00	Xode	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 13:00	Kurine	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 03:00	We	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 03:00	Havila	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 10:00	Hnadid	New Caledonia	0.1
	04 Feb 2021 00:00	Tiabet	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 15:00	Nde	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 22:00	Fayaoue	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 22:00	Ognahu	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 04:00	Doueoulou	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 16:00	Paita	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 12:00	Tawainedre	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Pantava	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Rewe	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 18:00	Tagula	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 22:00	Mouly	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 22:00	Lekia	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 11:00	Menaku	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Madaua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	04 Feb 2021 00:00	Arama	New Caledonia	0.1
	04 Feb 2021 00:00	Poum-Plage	New Caledonia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.