Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for NESTOR-19 in United States from 17 Oct 2019 15:00 UTC to 19 Oct 2019 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NESTOR-19

in United States

18 Oct 2019 00 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NESTOR-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	United States
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	68 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (18 Oct 11:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (United States)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	68 km/h	0.2 m	301 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	112 km/h	0.8 m	777 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

Up to 10 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Oct 2019 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	United States	11,053

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	17 Oct 2019 00:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	United States
2	17 Oct 2019 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	United States
3	18 Oct 2019 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	United States

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Oct 2019 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	United States, Mexico	835,750	+
	United States	832,474
	Mexico	3,276
50-100 mm	United States, Mexico, Guatemala	15,983,238	+
	United States	14,090,261
	Mexico	1,892,961
	Guatemala	16

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	17 Oct 2019 00:00	601	690 thousand			-	-	-	Mexico
2	17 Oct 2019 12:00	241	-	-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
3	18 Oct 2019 00:00	316	840 thousand		-	-	-	-	United States, Mexico, Guatemala

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Flake, United States. This height is estimated for 18 Oct 2019 11:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Oct 2019 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	18 Oct 2019 11:15	Flake	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 11:15	Elmgrove	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 11:15	Crystal Beach	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 11:15	Patton	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 11:15	Bolivar Peninsula	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 11:15	Caplen	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 11:15	Gilchrist	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 11:15	High Island	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 11:00	Galveston	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 11:00	Port Bolivar	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 11:00	Fort Travis	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 11:00	Texas City Junction	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 11:00	Bayou Vista	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 11:00	Anderson Ways	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 11:00	Virginia Point	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 11:15	Hitchcock	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 11:15	Jamaica Beach	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	Port Mansfield	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:45	Bay Harbor	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:45	Sea Isle	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:45	Hoskins	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:45	Port Morris	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:45	Red Fish Cove	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:30	Surfside	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:30	Mims	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:30	Surfside Beach	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 01:00	Buena Vista	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Johnson's Bayou	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Constance Beach	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Peveto Beach	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 01:00	Holly Beach	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 01:00	Laguna Vista	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 01:00	Laguna Heights	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 01:00	Port Isabel	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 01:00	Kopernik Shores	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 01:00	South Padre Island	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 01:00	Boca Chica	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:15	Freeport	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:15	Quintana	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	Yarborough	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	El Martillo	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:15	Gulf Park	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:15	Hoskins	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:15	Bryan Beach	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:15	Valasco Heights	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 02:15	Chinquapin	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	Lamar	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 02:30	Chaparral	Mexico	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	Peary Place	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	Flour Bluff	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 01:45	Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon	Mexico	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	Mustang Beach	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	Port Aransas	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	Rockport	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	Shell Ridge	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	Copano Village	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	Fulton	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	Port Ingleside	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 01:45	Los Ebanos	Mexico	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 01:45	El Mezquital	Mexico	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	Caruthers Cove Colonia	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	Ingleside	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	Kenney Lane West Colonia	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	Indian Trails Lane Colonia	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	Country Estates Colonia	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	Aransas Pass	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	Estes	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	Port O'Connor	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	Matagorda	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 01:45	El Porvenir	Mexico	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 02:30	San Jose de los Leones	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 01:30	Las Guayabas	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 01:30	La Pesca	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 02:30	Guerrero	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 02:30	Real de Salinas	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 05:00	Kaski	Honduras	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 05:00	Dapat	Honduras	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 05:00	Cauauira	Honduras	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 05:00	Tay Lirila	Honduras	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 05:00	Canco	Honduras	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 05:00	Barra Kruta	Honduras	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 05:00	Kanko	Honduras	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 01:30	Rancho Nuevo	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 01:30	La Presita	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 01:30	Rancho de Piedra	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Barnegat	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	South Toms River	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Pebble Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Waretown	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Toms River	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Pine Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Pineward	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Forked River	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Brookside Heights	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Bayville	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Oak Glen	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Cedar Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Island Heights	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Sunrise Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Ocean Gate	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Beachwood	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Harvey Cedars	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Barnegat Bay Estates	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Bay Shore	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Barnegat Light	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Island Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Seaside Park	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Seaside Heights	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Lavallette	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 04:15	Tropic	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 04:15	Melbourne Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 04:15	South Patrick Shores	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 04:15	Satellite Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 04:15	Indian Harbour Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 04:15	Canova Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 04:15	Indialantic	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 04:15	Valkaria	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 04:15	Grant	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 04:15	Melbourne Shores	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 04:15	Evans Pines	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 04:15	Ballard Pines	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	Pueblo Viejo	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	Primero de Mayo	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	Tampico Alta	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 01:30	Los Pericos	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 01:30	Tepeguahe	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 03:45	Celestum	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:15	Ship Bottom	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:15	Surf City	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:15	Long Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Spray Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	North Beach Haven	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Brant Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 03:30	Chelem	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 03:30	Progreso	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 04:30	Sisal	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 00:45	Corozo	Guatemala	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 00:45	Cabeza de Vaca	Guatemala	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 00:45	Baranca	Belize	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 00:45	San Juan	Guatemala	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 00:45	Cocoli	Guatemala	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 00:45	Buena Vista	Guatemala	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 00:45	Livingston	Guatemala	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	Tecolutla	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	La Guadalupe	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 02:00	Monte Gordo	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 00:45	Anton Lizardo	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 00:45	Salinas	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 00:45	Buen Pais	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 00:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:45	Holgate	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:45	Beach Haven	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:45	Beach Haven West	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 01:30	Cabo Rojito	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.