Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LUCAS-21
in New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone LUCAS-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1000765
Name LUCAS-21
From - To 31 Jan - 03 Feb
Exposed countries New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 120 km/h Category 1
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (03 Feb 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (New Caledonia)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS JTWC 74 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 151 km/h 0.5 m 527 mm 0.5
GFS 126 km/h 0.5 m 570 mm 0.5
ECMWF 97 km/h 0.5 m 680 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
New Caledonia, Vanuatu - Tropical cyclone LUCAS (ECHO 01 Feb 2021)Mon, 01 Feb 2021 10:40

  • Tropical cyclone LUCAS, formed over the Coral Sea, is strengthening as it moves southeast. On 1 February at 0.00 UTC, its centre was located approximately 850 km west of Espiritu Santo Island (northern-central Vanuatu), with maximum sustained wind of 93 km/h.
  • LUCAS is forecast to continue southeast over the Coral Sea, passing approximately 300 km west of Vanuatu Islands on 2-3 February and it could make landfall over New Caledonia on 3 February.
  • For the next 48 hours, moderate to heavy rain, strong wind and storm surge are forecast over most parts of Vanuatu and New Caledonia.
  • According to the Civil Security Direction of New Caledonia, a pre-warning for tropical cyclone has been issued over the whole New Caledonia.
New Caledonia, Vanuatu - Tropical Cyclone LUCAS (ECHO 02 Feb 2021)Tue, 02 Feb 2021 10:26

  • Tropical Cyclone LUCAS, continued south-east over the Coral Sea. On 2 February at 0.00 UTC, its centre was approximately 340 km north-east of Grande Terre (New Caledonia) and 270 km east of Malekula Island (northern-central Vanuatu), with maximum sustained wind of 83km/h.
  • LUCAS will continue south-east over the Coral Sea before crossing Lifou, Maré, Grande Terre, and Île-des-Pins on 3-4 February, with winds up to 85 km/h.
  • Heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge are forecast over most parts of Vanuatu and New Caledonia over the next 24 hours.
  • A hurricane alert has been issued for the Vanuatu Group of islands.

 

New Caledonia - Tropical Cyclone LUCAS update (ECHO 03 Feb 2021)Wed, 03 Feb 2021 02:00

  • After passing over Loyalty Islands Province (New Caledonia) on 2 February, Tropical Cyclone LUCAS is moving south-west, towards southern Grande Terre island. On 3 February at 0.00 UTC, its center was located about 80 km north-east of Noumea Capital City, with maximum sustained wind of 74 km/h. 
  • According to initial media reports, several houses, phone and electricity networks in Loyalty islands have been damaged. 
  • LUCAS is expected to pass over the southern tip of Grande Terre in the morning of 3 February, with maximum sustained wind up to 75 km/h and after that, it is forecast to dissipate in the Coral Sea. Preparedness measures in Grande Terre have started ahead of Tropical Cyclone LUCAS.
  • A hurricane alert has been issued for municipalities in South Province and heavy rainfall, strong winds and strong waves are forecast for south of Grande Terre. 
 
New Caledonia - Tropical Cyclone LUCAS update Thu, 04 Feb 2021 02:00

  • The passage of Tropical Cyclone over Grande Terre (New Caledonia) on 3 February, resulted in damage.
  • According to media reports, Mont-Dore commune (South Province) has been severely affected, with many houses flooded and several roads impassable. In Grande Terre, several families have been evacuated, and more than 10,000 customers experienced power outages, hindering telecommunications.
  • Moderate rainfall is forecast over the South Province and most of Loyalty Islands on 4-5 February. 
Detailed event map. European Union, 2024. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

Dépression Lucas : comment se faire indemniser ? 2/5/2021 12:34:00 AM.

Au lendemain du passage de la dépression Lucas qui a occasionné des dégâts matériels importants dans le sud et les îles, les coups de fils pleuvent chez les compagnies d'assurance. Inquiets, de nombreux Calédoniens sinistrés se demandent s'
...(more)
Cambriolage, conséquences de Lucas, usine du sud : l'actu à la 1 du... 2/4/2021 11:32:00 PM.

Un cambrioleur se fait tuer par le propriétaire de la maison A Boulouparis , un homme est décédé lors d’une tentative de cambriolage dans la nuit de mercredi à jeudi. Le cambrioleur, surpris par le propriétaire, a été blessé par balles et a
...(more)
Evenement Météorologique Lucas Du 01/02/2021 au 04/02/2021- Communiqué.. 2/4/2021 5:06:00 AM.

Situation : LUCAS est au stade de dépression tropicale faible. La pression au centre est estimée à 998 hPa, avec des vents à 65 km/h au sud de son centre et des rafales à 85 km/h. Elle se déplace vers le sud à 5 km/h environ. Les conditions
...(more)
Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone Lucas continues tracking southward in the .. 2/2/2021 11:30:00 PM.

Event. Tropical Cyclone Lucas has weakened slightly as it tracks southward in the Coral Sea near New Caledonia early Feb. 3. As of 0500 NCT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 207 km (129 miles) northeast of Noumea, New Ca
...(more)

View more news

Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (38), (2), WMO (1), INFORM (2),