Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LUCAS-21
in New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands
03 Feb 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone LUCAS-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 120 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (03 Feb 06:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (New Caledonia)
    Landfall between
    02 Feb 2021 12:00 - 02 Feb 2021 18:00
    in New Caledonia

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 74 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 120 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      74 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 370000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 31 Jan 2021 00:00 139 300 thousand Few people New Caledonia
        Green 2 31 Jan 2021 06:00 157 510 thousand 10 thousand New Caledonia
        Green 3 31 Jan 2021 12:00 148 510 thousand No people Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu
        Green 4 31 Jan 2021 18:00 130 400 thousand No people Vanuatu, New Caledonia
        Green 5 01 Feb 2021 00:00 111 280 thousand No people New Caledonia
        Green 6 01 Feb 2021 06:00 120 280 thousand No people New Caledonia
        Green 7 01 Feb 2021 12:00 120 440 thousand No people Vanuatu, New Caledonia
        Green 8 01 Feb 2021 18:00 111 450 thousand No people Vanuatu, New Caledonia
        Green 9 02 Feb 2021 00:00 83 390 thousand No people Vanuatu, New Caledonia
        Green 10 02 Feb 2021 06:00 83 380 thousand No people New Caledonia, Vanuatu
        Green 11 02 Feb 2021 12:00 93 380 thousand No people New Caledonia, Vanuatu
        Green 12 02 Feb 2021 18:00 74 380 thousand No people New Caledonia, Vanuatu
        Green 13 03 Feb 2021 00:00 74 370 thousand No people New Caledonia, Vanuatu

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 31 Jan 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -13.9, 152.3
          GREEN
          		 2 31 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -13.9, 153.2
          GREEN
          		 3 31 Jan 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 2600 people -13.1, 155.2
          GREEN
          		 4 31 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -13.4, 157.2
          GREEN
          		 5 01 Feb 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -14.1, 158.5
          GREEN
          		 6 01 Feb 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -14.8, 160.9
          GREEN
          		 7 01 Feb 2021 12:00 Category 1 120 no people 110000 people -15.7, 162.6
          GREEN
          		 8 01 Feb 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 190000 people -16.6, 164
          GREEN
          		 9 02 Feb 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 120000 people -17.1, 165
          GREEN
          		 10 02 Feb 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 360000 people -18.4, 166.1
          GREEN
          		 11 02 Feb 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 310000 people -19.6, 166.8
          GREEN
          		 12 02 Feb 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 280000 people -20.6, 167.3 New Caledonia
          GREEN
          		 13 03 Feb 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 230000 people -21.9, 167.1
          GREEN
          		 13 03 Feb 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -23, 166.8
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          New Caledonia
          Vanuatu

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          New Caledonia New Caledonia
          Vanuatu Vanuatu

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Comm. du Mont-Dore New Caledonia City -
          Nouméa New Caledonia Capital 83000 people
          Port-Vila Vanuatu Capital 36000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Ile Ouen IOU unknown 0
          Noumea / Magenta GEA 3 Civ. Paved Yes 4100
          Ile Des Pins Moue ILP 96 Civ. Paved No 3600
          La Tontouta NOU 16 Civ. Paved Yes 10600
          Mare la Roche MEE 43 Civ. Paved No 3200
          Wanaham LIF 28 Civ. Paved No 3600
          Ouvea Ouloup UVE 7 Civ. Paved No 3600
          Houailou / Nesson HLU 3 Civ. Paved No 3200
          Mueo PDC unknown 0
          Touho TOU 3 Civ. Paved No 3600
          Kone KNQ 7 Civ. Paved No 3200
          Hienghene HNG unknown 0
          White Grass 6 Civ. Paved Yes 5000
          Tanna Island Tanna TAH unknown 0
          Dillons Bay DLY unknown 0
          Port Vila Bauerfield VLI 20 Civ. Paved Yes 8500
          Quine Hill UIQ unknown 0
          South West Bay SWJ unknown 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Noumea NCNOU New Caledonia
          Ducos NCDUS New Caledonia
          Tadine New Caledonia
          Kuto New Caledonia
          Thialis NCTHI New Caledonia
          We New Caledonia
          Kouaoua NCKOU New Caledonia
          Baie de Poro NCPOR New Caledonia
          Baie Ugue NCBUG New Caledonia
          Nepoui NCNEP New Caledonia
          Tana Island Vanuatu
          Port Vila VUVLI Vanuatu
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.3 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Plum, New Caledonia. This height is estimated for 03 Feb 2021 06:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (63 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 13 of 03 Feb 2021 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          03 Feb 2021 06:00 Plum New Caledonia  0.3
          03 Feb 2021 04:00 Prony New Caledonia  0.3
          03 Feb 2021 06:00 Ouara New Caledonia  0.3
          03 Feb 2021 06:00 Saint-Louis New Caledonia  0.3
          03 Feb 2021 06:00 Yate-Village New Caledonia  0.3
          31 Jan 2021 08:00 Losuia Papua New Guinea  0.3
          03 Feb 2021 04:00 Goro New Caledonia  0.3
          03 Feb 2021 05:00 Comm. du Mont-Dore New Caledonia  0.2
          03 Feb 2021 06:00 Noumea New Caledonia  0.2
          03 Feb 2021 05:00 Tomo New Caledonia  0.2
          03 Feb 2021 06:00 Nouville New Caledonia  0.2
          02 Feb 2021 19:00 Chepenehe New Caledonia  0.2
          02 Feb 2021 21:00 Inagod New Caledonia  0.2
          03 Feb 2021 03:00 Waho New Caledonia  0.2
          03 Feb 2021 04:00 Bouloupari New Caledonia  0.2
          02 Feb 2021 19:00 Nathalo New Caledonia  0.2
          02 Feb 2021 19:00 Wegnec St-Joseph New Caledonia  0.2
          02 Feb 2021 19:00 Teouta New Caledonia  0.2
          02 Feb 2021 19:00 Tingeting New Caledonia  0.2
          02 Feb 2021 19:00 Nang New Caledonia  0.2
          02 Feb 2021 19:00 Ognat New Caledonia  0.2
          03 Feb 2021 05:00 Nde New Caledonia  0.2
          02 Feb 2021 19:00 Hunete New Caledonia  0.2
          02 Feb 2021 19:00 Dosip New Caledonia  0.2
          31 Jan 2021 06:00 Lahimoina Papua New Guinea  0.2
          31 Jan 2021 06:00 Leileiafa Papua New Guinea  0.2
          31 Jan 2021 09:00 Pantava Papua New Guinea  0.2
          02 Feb 2021 21:00 Wadrilla New Caledonia  0.1
          03 Feb 2021 05:00 Paita New Caledonia  0.1
          02 Feb 2021 19:00 Havila New Caledonia  0.1
          03 Feb 2021 02:00 Mamie New Caledonia  0.1
          31 Jan 2021 09:00 Madaua Papua New Guinea  0.1
          31 Jan 2021 07:00 Auneri Papua New Guinea  0.1
          31 Jan 2021 10:00 Hekampan Papua New Guinea  0.1
          31 Jan 2021 10:00 Tagula Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Feb 2021 06:00 Dumbea New Caledonia  0.1
          02 Feb 2021 18:00 Doking New Caledonia  0.1
          02 Feb 2021 19:00 We New Caledonia  0.1
          31 Jan 2021 07:00 Gadaisu Papua New Guinea  0.1
          31 Jan 2021 09:00 Griffin Point Papua New Guinea  0.1
          31 Jan 2021 07:00 Bona Bona I Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Feb 2021 20:00 Doueoulou New Caledonia  0.1
          31 Jan 2021 09:00 Rewe Papua New Guinea  0.1
          31 Jan 2021 08:00 Mirimairau Papua New Guinea  0.1
          31 Jan 2021 07:00 Sidabadu Papua New Guinea  0.1
          31 Jan 2021 08:00 Mira Papua New Guinea  0.1
          31 Jan 2021 09:00 Donuwo Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Feb 2021 06:00 Gadji New Caledonia  0.1
          31 Jan 2021 07:00 Lawes College Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Feb 2021 06:00 Wapan New Caledonia  0.1
          31 Jan 2021 08:00 Apeawa Papua New Guinea  0.1
          31 Jan 2021 08:00 Babai Papua New Guinea  0.1
          31 Jan 2021 08:00 Avioua Papua New Guinea  0.1
          31 Jan 2021 08:00 Veraibari Papua New Guinea  0.1
          31 Jan 2021 08:00 Tovai Papua New Guinea  0.1
          31 Jan 2021 08:00 Uramu I Papua New Guinea  0.1
          31 Jan 2021 08:00 Kaivu Papua New Guinea  0.1
          31 Jan 2021 08:00 Mairipepea Papua New Guinea  0.1
          31 Jan 2021 08:00 Moravamu Papua New Guinea  0.1
          31 Jan 2021 08:00 Kamaua Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Feb 2021 20:00 Mou New Caledonia  0.1
          02 Feb 2021 20:00 Xode New Caledonia  0.1
          31 Jan 2021 07:00 Gogsiba Papua New Guinea  0.1