Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for RAGASA-25 in Philippines, China on 18 Sep 2025 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for RAGASA-25

in Philippines, China

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RAGASA-25 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2025-000170-PHL
Exposed countries	Philippines, China
Exposed population	47.2 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	269 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (22 Sep 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	213 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	269 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

213 km/h Current Max.

Up to 24000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Level	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
	1	18 Sep 2025 12:00	213	23.7 million	20 thousand	Philippines

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	18 Sep 2025 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15.9, 133
1	19 Sep 2025 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	16.2, 131.8
1	19 Sep 2025 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	16.4, 130.9
1	20 Sep 2025 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	16.8, 130.2
1	20 Sep 2025 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	17.6, 129.1
1	21 Sep 2025 12:00	Category 3	194	16000 people	7.3 million people	18.7, 126.6
1	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Category 4	213	24000 people	23.8 million people	19.4, 122.3
1	23 Sep 2025 12:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	20.2, 117.9

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Philippines	11000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Cagayan Valley	Philippines	11000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Calayan		Philippines

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Bawa, Philippines. This height is estimated for 22 Sep 2025 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (57 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 1 of 18 Sep 2025 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Bawa	Philippines	0.3
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Cabiraoan	Philippines	0.3
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Casambalangan	Philippines	0.3
	22 Sep 2025 10:00	Gonzaga	Philippines	0.2
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	San Dionisio	Philippines	0.2
	19 Sep 2025 03:00	Mualbual	Philippines	0.2
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	San Vincente	Philippines	0.2
	19 Sep 2025 02:00	San Andres	Philippines	0.2
	19 Sep 2025 02:00	Pequit	Philippines	0.2
	19 Sep 2025 02:00	Pabanong	Philippines	0.2
	19 Sep 2025 02:00	Hinabangan	Philippines	0.2
	19 Sep 2025 02:00	Wright	Philippines	0.2
	19 Sep 2025 02:00	Narombacan	Philippines	0.2
	19 Sep 2025 03:00	Bangon	Philippines	0.2
	19 Sep 2025 02:00	Tatabunan	Philippines	0.2
	22 Sep 2025 09:00	Buguey	Philippines	0.2
	19 Sep 2025 02:00	Macalonud	Philippines	0.2
	19 Sep 2025 02:00	Bagacay	Philippines	0.2
	19 Sep 2025 02:00	Guintampilan	Philippines	0.2
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Meycauayan	Philippines	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Tanza	Philippines	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Tinajeros	Philippines	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Caloocan	Philippines	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Manila	Philippines	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Minabul	Philippines	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Pamarauan	Philippines	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 08:00	Balza	Philippines	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Banua	Philippines	0.1
	19 Sep 2025 02:00	Catbalogan	Philippines	0.1
	19 Sep 2025 02:00	Babatngon	Philippines	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Cadagatan	Philippines	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Kaniwalan	Philippines	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Nagsidel	Philippines	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Dadao	Philippines	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Cavite	Philippines	0.1
	19 Sep 2025 02:00	Daram	Philippines	0.1
	19 Sep 2025 05:00	Bantayan	Philippines	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Alacan	Philippines	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Poso	Philippines	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 08:00	Punta	Philippines	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Sorongan	Philippines	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Rarasi	Philippines	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Gongqiancun	China	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Chendai	China	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Hsi-pu	China	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Huqiu	China	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Wutian	China	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Chengguanzhen	China	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Guleitou	China	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Gangkou	China	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Hsia-mei	China	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Liu'ao	China	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Chencheng	China	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Bateng	Philippines	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Tanza	Philippines	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Binakayan	Philippines	0.1
	22 Sep 2025 12:00	Tehero	Philippines	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.