Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for RAGASA-25
in Philippines, China

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 242245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 242100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM RAGASA (2518) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 15 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 252100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 241645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 241500 UTC, TYPHOON RAGASA (2518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) ONE ONE ZERO
POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 15 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.
0000012200
99625


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 241045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 240900 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON RAGASA (2518) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ONE
ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250900 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.
0000013600
97767


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 240800
WARNING ATCG MIL 24W NWP 250924074348
2025092406 24W RAGASA 024 03 285 12 SATL RADR 060
T000 216N 1126E 105 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 165 SE QD 140 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 218N 1100E 065 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 120 SE QD 105 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 220N 1075E 040 R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 221N 1049E 025
T048 219N 1025E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 024
1. TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 024
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 21.6N 112.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 112.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.8N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.0N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 22.1N 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.9N 102.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 112.0E.
24SEP25. TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 98 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240600Z IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2425091606 130N1383E 15
2425091612 132N1375E 15
2425091618 134N1371E 15
2425091700 136N1366E 20
2425091706 144N1358E 20
2425091712 151N1351E 20
2425091718 149N1346E 20
2425091800 153N1341E 20
2425091806 157N1334E 25
2425091812 159N1330E 30
2425091818 160N1322E 35
2425091900 160N1312E 35
2425091906 160N1308E 45
2425091912 160N1305E 45
2425091918 162N1300E 60
2425091918 162N1300E 60
2425092000 163N1296E 65
2425092000 163N1296E 65
2425092000 163N1296E 65
2425092006 168N1290E 75
2425092006 168N1290E 75
2425092006 168N1290E 75
2425092012 173N1286E 100
2425092012 173N1286E 100
2425092012 173N1286E 100
2425092018 178N1278E 115
2425092018 178N1278E 115
2425092018 178N1278E 115
2425092100 180N1270E 120
2425092100 180N1270E 120
2425092100 180N1270E 120
2425092106 184N1263E 140
2425092106 184N1263E 140
2425092106 184N1263E 140
2425092112 189N1253E 145
2425092112 189N1253E 145
2425092112 189N1253E 145
2425092118 191N1241E 145
2425092118 191N1241E 145
2425092118 191N1241E 145
2425092200 192N1228E 145
2425092200 192N1228E 145
2425092200 192N1228E 145
2425092206 193N1217E 140
2425092206 193N1217E 140
2425092206 193N1217E 140
2425092212 194N1205E 130
2425092212 194N1205E 130
2425092212 194N1205E 130
2425092218 196N1193E 125
2425092218 196N1193E 125
2425092218 196N1193E 125
2425092300 200N1182E 125
2425092300 200N1182E 125
2425092300 200N1182E 125
2425092306 204N1171E 120
2425092306 204N1171E 120
2425092306 204N1171E 120
2425092312 208N1160E 115
2425092312 208N1160E 115
2425092312 208N1160E 115
2425092318 211N1148E 115
2425092318 211N1148E 115
2425092318 211N1148E 115
2425092400 213N1138E 110
2425092400 213N1138E 110
2425092400 213N1138E 110
2425092406 216N1126E 105
2425092406 216N1126E 105
2425092406 216N1126E 105
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 240800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 024
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 21.6N 112.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 112.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.8N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.0N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 22.1N 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.9N 102.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 112.0E.
24SEP25. TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 98 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240600Z IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 25W (NEOGURI) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 26W (BUALOI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 240445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 240300 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON RAGASA (2518) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N) ONE ONE
THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (113.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 75 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250300 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (108.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.
0000012600
95795


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 240145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 240000 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON RAGASA (2518) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 925 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N) ONE ONE
THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (113.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 75 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250000 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 232245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 232100 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON RAGASA (2518) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 925 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N) ONE ONE
FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (114.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 75 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 242100 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (109.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 252100 UTC
TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (105.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 262100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 232100
WARNING ATCG MIL 24W NWP 250923194805
2025092318 24W RAGASA 022 03 285 12 SATL 010
T000 211N 1148E 115 R064 105 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 095 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 105 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 135 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 215N 1124E 110 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 217N 1098E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 218N 1072E 060 R050 000 NE QD 045 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 217N 1046E 035
T072 212N 0996E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 022
1. TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 022
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 21.1N 114.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 114.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 21.5N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.7N 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 21.8N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 21.7N 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.2N 99.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 114.2E.
23SEP25. TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 79 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231800Z IS 939 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z,
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX)
2425091606 130N1383E 15
2425091612 132N1375E 15
2425091618 134N1371E 15
2425091700 136N1366E 20
2425091706 144N1358E 20
2425091712 151N1351E 20
2425091718 149N1346E 20
2425091800 153N1341E 20
2425091806 157N1334E 25
2425091812 159N1330E 30
2425091818 160N1322E 35
2425091900 160N1312E 35
2425091906 160N1308E 45
2425091912 160N1305E 45
2425091918 162N1300E 60
2425091918 162N1300E 60
2425092000 163N1296E 65
2425092000 163N1296E 65
2425092000 163N1296E 65
2425092006 168N1290E 75
2425092006 168N1290E 75
2425092006 168N1290E 75
2425092012 173N1286E 100
2425092012 173N1286E 100
2425092012 173N1286E 100
2425092018 178N1278E 115
2425092018 178N1278E 115
2425092018 178N1278E 115
2425092100 180N1270E 120
2425092100 180N1270E 120
2425092100 180N1270E 120
2425092106 184N1263E 140
2425092106 184N1263E 140
2425092106 184N1263E 140
2425092112 189N1253E 145
2425092112 189N1253E 145
2425092112 189N1253E 145
2425092118 191N1241E 145
2425092118 191N1241E 145
2425092118 191N1241E 145
2425092200 192N1228E 145
2425092200 192N1228E 145
2425092200 192N1228E 145
2425092206 193N1217E 140
2425092206 193N1217E 140
2425092206 193N1217E 140
2425092212 194N1205E 130
2425092212 194N1205E 130
2425092212 194N1205E 130
2425092218 196N1193E 125
2425092218 196N1193E 125
2425092218 196N1193E 125
2425092300 200N1182E 125
2425092300 200N1182E 125
2425092300 200N1182E 125
2425092306 204N1171E 120
2425092306 204N1171E 120
2425092306 204N1171E 120
2425092312 208N1160E 115
2425092312 208N1160E 115
2425092312 208N1160E 115
2425092318 211N1148E 115
2425092318 211N1148E 115
2425092318 211N1148E 115
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 022
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 21.1N 114.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 114.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 21.5N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.7N 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 21.8N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 21.7N 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.2N 99.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 114.2E.
23SEP25. TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 79 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231800Z IS 939
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (BUALOI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 231645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 231500 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON RAGASA (2518) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 925 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N) ONE ONE
FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (115.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 75 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241500 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251500 UTC
TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (106.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 231345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 231200 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON RAGASA (2518) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 925 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (20.8 N) ONE
ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (116.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 75 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241200 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251200 UTC
TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 231045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 230900 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON RAGASA (2518) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 920 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ONE
SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 110 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 75 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240900 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250900 UTC
TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (107.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 230745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 230600 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON RAGASA (2518) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 905 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N) ONE
ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (117.1 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 120 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 75 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240600 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250600 UTC
TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (21.9 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (107.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.
0000044800
89155


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 230445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 230300 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON RAGASA (2518) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 905 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ONE
SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (117.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 120 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 75 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240300 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 100 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250300 UTC
TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (21.9 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (108.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 230145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 230000 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON RAGASA (2518) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 900 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE
EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 125 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240000 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (113.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 105 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250000 UTC
TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (21.9 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 222245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 222100 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON RAGASA (2518) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 900 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE
ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (118.8 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 125 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 232100 UTC
TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N)
ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 115 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 242100 UTC
TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (21.9 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (109.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 252100 UTC
TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (105.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 262100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 222100
WARNING 222100.
WARNING VALID 232100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2518 RAGASA (2518) 915 HPA
AT 19.7N 118.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230900UTC AT 20.6N 116.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 232100UTC AT 21.2N 114.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 221945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 221800 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON RAGASA (2518) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 905 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ONE
NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (119.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 120 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 231800 UTC
TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 115 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241800 UTC
TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (110.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251800 UTC
TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (105.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 221800
WARNING 221800.
WARNING VALID 231800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2518 RAGASA (2518) 915 HPA
AT 19.6N 119.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 20.4N 117.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 21.1N 115.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 21.5N 110.0E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 21.6N 105.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 221500
WARNING 221500.
WARNING VALID 231500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2518 RAGASA (2518) 905 HPA
AT 19.5N 119.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 20.2N 117.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 20.8N 115.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 221200
WARNING 221200.
WARNING VALID 231200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2518 RAGASA (2518) 905 HPA
AT 19.5N 120.5E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 19.9N 118.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 20.7N 116.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 21.5N 111.6E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 21.4N 105.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 220900
WARNING 220900.
WARNING VALID 230900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2518 RAGASA (2518) 905 HPA
AT 19.5N 121.1E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 222100UTC AT 19.8N 118.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230900UTC AT 20.6N 116.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 220600
WARNING 220600.
WARNING VALID 230600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2518 RAGASA (2518) 905 HPA
AT 19.4N 121.7E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 19.7N 119.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 20.4N 117.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 21.4N 112.7E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 21.4N 107.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 20.6N 102.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 220300
WARNING 220300.
WARNING VALID 230300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2518 RAGASA (2518) 905 HPA
AT 19.4N 122.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 19.7N 120.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 20.3N 117.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 220000
WARNING 220000.
WARNING VALID 230000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2518 RAGASA (2518) 905 HPA
AT 19.4N 123.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 19.6N 120.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 20.1N 118.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 21.1N 113.7E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 21.1N 108.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 20.7N 102.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 212100
WARNING 212100.
WARNING VALID 222100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2518 RAGASA (2518) 925 HPA
AT 19.2N 123.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220900UTC AT 19.5N 121.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 222100UTC AT 19.9N 118.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 212100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 212100UTC 19.2N 123.6E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 270NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 220900UTC 19.5N 121.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 222100UTC 19.9N 118.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 231800UTC 20.8N 114.6E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 241800UTC 21.0N 109.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 251800UTC 20.5N 104.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 261800UTC 19.6N 100.4E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY RAGASA IS LOCATED AT 19.1N, 124.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
925HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. NOAA-21/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL
FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211800UTC 19.1N 124.1E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 270NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 220600UTC 19.5N 121.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 221800UTC 19.7N 119.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 231800UTC 20.8N 114.6E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 241800UTC 21.0N 109.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 251800UTC 20.5N 104.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 261800UTC 19.6N 100.4E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 211800
WARNING 211800.
WARNING VALID 221800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2518 RAGASA (2518) 925 HPA
AT 19.1N 124.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 19.5N 121.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 19.7N 119.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 20.8N 114.6E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 21.0N 109.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 20.5N 104.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 19.6N 100.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 211500
WARNING 211500.
WARNING VALID 221500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2518 RAGASA (2518) 925 HPA
AT 19.0N 124.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220300UTC AT 19.5N 122.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 19.6N 119.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 211500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211500UTC 19.0N 124.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 270NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 220300UTC 19.5N 122.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 221500UTC 19.6N 119.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 231200UTC 20.4N 115.9E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 241200UTC 20.8N 111.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 251200UTC 20.6N 106.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 261200UTC 19.4N 100.1E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY RAGASA IS LOCATED AT 18.8N, 125.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
925HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL
FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 18.8N 125.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 270NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 220000UTC 19.4N 123.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 221200UTC 19.5N 120.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 231200UTC 20.4N 115.9E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 241200UTC 20.8N 111.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 251200UTC 20.6N 106.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 261200UTC 19.4N 100.1E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 211200
WARNING 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2518 RAGASA (2518) 925 HPA
AT 18.8N 125.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 19.4N 123.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 19.5N 120.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 20.4N 115.9E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 20.8N 111.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 20.6N 106.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 19.4N 100.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 210900 CCA
WARNING 210900.
WARNING VALID 220900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2518 RAGASA (2518) 925 HPA
AT 18.6N 125.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220900UTC AT 19.6N 121.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 210900 CCA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210900UTC 18.6N 125.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 270NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 220900UTC 19.6N 121.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 230600UTC 20.6N 117.1E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 240600UTC 21.0N 112.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 250600UTC 20.6N 107.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 260600UTC 20.7N 105.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 210900
WARNING 210900.
WARNING VALID 220900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2518 RAGASA (2518) 925 HPA
AT 18.4N 126.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220900UTC AT 19.6N 121.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 210900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210900UTC 18.4N 126.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 270NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 220900UTC 19.6N 121.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 230600UTC 20.6N 117.1E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 240600UTC 21.0N 112.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 250600UTC 20.6N 107.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 260600UTC 20.7N 105.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY RAGASA IS LOCATED AT 18.4N, 126.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
925HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND
LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 210600
WARNING 210600.
WARNING VALID 220600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2518 RAGASA (2518) 925 HPA
AT 18.4N 126.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 19.7N 121.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 20.6N 117.1E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 21.0N 112.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 20.6N 107.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 20.7N 105.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210600UTC 18.4N 126.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 270NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 220600UTC 19.7N 121.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 230600UTC 20.6N 117.1E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 240600UTC 21.0N 112.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 250600UTC 20.6N 107.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 260600UTC 20.7N 105.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 210300
WARNING 210300.
WARNING VALID 220300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2518 RAGASA (2518) 940 HPA
AT 18.2N 126.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220300UTC AT 19.6N 122.4E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 210300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210300UTC 18.2N 126.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 270NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 220300UTC 19.6N 122.4E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 230000UTC 20.3N 118.1E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 240000UTC 21.4N 113.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 250000UTC 21.0N 108.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
117HF 260000UTC 20.4N 105.3E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY RAGASA IS LOCATED AT 17.9N, 127.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND
LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 210000
WARNING 210000.
WARNING VALID 220000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2518 RAGASA (2518) 950 HPA
AT 17.9N 127.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 19.5N 123.1E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 20.3N 118.1E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 21.4N 113.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 21.0N 108.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 20.4N 105.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 17.9N 127.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 300NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 220000UTC 19.5N 123.1E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 230000UTC 20.3N 118.1E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 240000UTC 21.4N 113.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 250000UTC 21.0N 108.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
120HF 260000UTC 20.4N 105.3E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 202100
WARNING 202100.
WARNING VALID 212100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2518 RAGASA (2518) 955 HPA
AT 17.9N 127.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 212100UTC AT 19.4N 123.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 202100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 202100UTC 17.9N 127.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 300NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 212100UTC 19.4N 123.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 221800UTC 20.0N 119.2E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
69HF 231800UTC 21.2N 115.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
93HF 241800UTC 20.9N 111.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 251800UTC 20.3N 106.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY RAGASA IS LOCATED AT 17.8N, 127.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
955HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201800UTC 17.8N 127.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 300NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 211800UTC 19.3N 124.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 221800UTC 20.0N 119.2E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 231800UTC 21.2N 115.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 241800UTC 20.9N 111.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 251800UTC 20.3N 106.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 201800
WARNING 201800.
WARNING VALID 211800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2518 RAGASA (2518) 955 HPA
AT 17.8N 127.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 19.3N 124.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 20.0N 119.2E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 21.2N 115.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 20.9N 111.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 20.3N 106.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 201500
WARNING 201500.
WARNING VALID 211500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2518 RAGASA (2518) 955 HPA
AT 17.6N 128.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211500UTC AT 18.9N 124.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 201500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201500UTC 17.6N 128.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 300NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 211500UTC 18.9N 124.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 221200UTC 19.9N 121.0E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
69HF 231200UTC 21.1N 116.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
93HF 241200UTC 21.1N 111.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 251200UTC 20.6N 107.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPN22 PGTW 201500
WARNING ATCG MIL 24W NWP 250920132701
2025092012 24W RAGASA 009 02 325 06 SATL 020
T000 172N 1287E 100 R064 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 115 SE QD 035 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 200 SE QD 240 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 180N 1274E 115 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 188N 1257E 130 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 194N 1237E 135 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 200 NW QD
T048 200N 1215E 135 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 220 NW QD
T072 211N 1167E 115 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 213N 1121E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 206N 1077E 060 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 009
1. TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 17.2N 128.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 128.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.0N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.8N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.4N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.0N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.1N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.3N 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.6N 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 128.4E.
20SEP25. TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 471 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201200Z IS 957 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2425091606 130N1383E 15
2425091612 132N1375E 15
2425091618 134N1371E 15
2425091700 136N1366E 20
2425091706 144N1358E 20
2425091712 151N1351E 20
2425091718 149N1346E 20
2425091800 153N1341E 20
2425091806 157N1334E 25
2425091812 159N1330E 30
2425091818 160N1322E 35
2425091900 160N1312E 35
2425091906 160N1308E 45
2425091912 160N1305E 45
2425091918 162N1300E 60
2425091918 162N1300E 60
2425092000 163N1296E 65
2425092000 163N1296E 65
2425092000 163N1296E 65
2425092006 167N1291E 70
2425092006 167N1291E 70
2425092006 167N1291E 70
2425092012 172N1287E 100
2425092012 172N1287E 100
2425092012 172N1287E 100
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY RAGASA IS LOCATED AT 17.3N, 128.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
955HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL
FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 201200
WARNING 201200.
WARNING VALID 211200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2518 RAGASA (2518) 955 HPA
AT 17.3N 128.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 18.9N 125.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 19.9N 121.0E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 21.1N 116.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 21.1N 111.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 20.6N 107.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 17.3N 128.6E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 211200UTC 18.9N 125.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 221200UTC 19.9N 121.0E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 231200UTC 21.1N 116.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 241200UTC 21.1N 111.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 251200UTC 20.6N 107.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 200900
WARNING 200900.
WARNING VALID 210900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2518 RAGASA (2518) 970 HPA
AT 17.0N 128.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210900UTC AT 18.7N 126.0E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 200900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200900UTC 17.0N 128.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 210900UTC 18.7N 126.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 220600UTC 19.7N 122.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 230600UTC 20.9N 117.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
93HF 240600UTC 21.5N 112.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 250600UTC 20.7N 108.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPN22 PGTW 200900
WARNING ATCG MIL 24W NWP 250920074035
2025092006 24W RAGASA 008 03 310 06 SATL 020
T000 167N 1291E 070 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 200 SE QD 240 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 176N 1280E 085 R064 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 183N 1265E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 191N 1246E 115 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 180 NW QD
T048 196N 1225E 125 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 220 NW QD
T072 208N 1178E 115 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 213N 1132E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 205N 1087E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 008
1. TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 16.7N 129.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 129.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.6N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.3N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.1N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.6N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.8N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 21.3N 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.5N 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 128.8E.
20SEP25. TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200600Z IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2425091606 130N1383E 15
2425091612 132N1375E 15
2425091618 134N1371E 15
2425091700 136N1366E 20
2425091706 144N1358E 20
2425091712 151N1351E 20
2425091718 149N1346E 20
2425091800 153N1341E 20
2425091806 157N1334E 25
2425091812 159N1330E 30
2425091818 160N1322E 35
2425091900 160N1312E 35
2425091906 160N1308E 45
2425091912 160N1305E 45
2425091918 162N1300E 60
2425091918 162N1300E 60
2425092000 163N1296E 65
2425092000 163N1296E 65
2425092000 163N1296E 65
2425092006 167N1291E 70
2425092006 167N1291E 70
2425092006 167N1291E 70
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY RAGASA IS LOCATED AT 16.9N, 129.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE
NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN
UPPER VORTEX UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND LAND.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2518 RAGASA (2518) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200600UTC 16.9N 129.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 210600UTC 18.6N 126.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 220600UTC 19.7N 122.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 230600UTC 20.9N 117.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 240600UTC 21.5N 112.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 250600UTC 20.7N 108.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 200600
WARNING 200600.
WARNING VALID 210600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2518 RAGASA (2518) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 975
HPA
AT 16.9N 129.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 18.6N 126.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 19.7N 122.4E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 20.9N 117.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 21.5N 112.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 20.7N 108.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 200300
WARNING 200300.
WARNING VALID 210300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2518 RAGASA (2518) 980 HPA
AT 16.6N 129.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210300UTC AT 18.4N 126.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 200300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200300UTC 16.6N 129.2E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 210300UTC 18.4N 126.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 220000UTC 19.8N 123.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 230000UTC 20.8N 119.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
93HF 240000UTC 21.9N 114.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
117HF 250000UTC 21.0N 110.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR STS 2518 RAGASA (2518)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS RAGASA IS LOCATED AT 16.7N, 129.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE
CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN
UPPER VORTEX UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 16.7N 129.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 210000UTC 18.2N 127.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 220000UTC 19.8N 123.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 230000UTC 20.8N 119.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 240000UTC 21.9N 114.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
120HF 250000UTC 21.0N 110.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 200000
WARNING 200000.
WARNING VALID 210000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2518 RAGASA (2518) 985 HPA
AT 16.7N 129.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 18.2N 127.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 19.8N 123.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 20.8N 119.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 21.9N 114.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 21.0N 110.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 192100
WARNING 192100.
WARNING VALID 202100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2518 RAGASA (2518) 990 HPA
AT 17.1N 129.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 202100UTC AT 18.1N 127.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 192100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 192100UTC 17.1N 129.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 202100UTC 18.1N 127.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 211800UTC 19.4N 125.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 221800UTC 20.4N 120.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
93HF 231800UTC 21.6N 115.8E 125NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
117HF 241800UTC 21.6N 111.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR STS 2518 RAGASA (2518)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS RAGASA IS LOCATED AT 16.6N, 129.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
AN UPPER VORTEX UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP
AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 16.6N 129.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 201800UTC 17.9N 128.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 211800UTC 19.4N 125.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 221800UTC 20.4N 120.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 231800UTC 21.6N 115.8E 125NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
120HF 241800UTC 21.6N 111.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 191800
WARNING 191800.
WARNING VALID 201800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2518 RAGASA (2518) 990 HPA
AT 16.6N 129.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 17.9N 128.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 19.4N 125.1E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 20.4N 120.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 21.6N 115.8E WITH 125 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 21.6N 111.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 191500
WARNING 191500.
WARNING VALID 201500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2518 RAGASA (2518) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
992 HPA
AT 16.5N 130.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201500UTC AT 17.7N 128.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 191500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2518 RAGASA (2518) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191500UTC 16.5N 130.0E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 201500UTC 17.7N 128.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 211200UTC 19.2N 126.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 221200UTC 20.1N 121.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
93HF 231200UTC 21.3N 117.2E 125NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
117HF 241200UTC 21.3N 113.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 191505
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAGASA (24W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP242025
105 AM CHST SAT SEP 20 2025

...TROPICAL STORM RAGASA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THE
WESTERN PHILIPPINE SEA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
RAGASA IS NOW WEST OF 130E AND HAS EXITED THE NWS GUAM AREA
OF RESPONSIBILITY.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 129.9E

ABOUT 695 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR
ABOUT 730 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP
ABOUT 1015 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAGASA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
129.9 DEGREES EAST. RAGASA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. IT
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH SUNDAY. AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST, RAGASA WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE PHILIPPINES ON
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 MPH. RAGASA IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH SUNDAY AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER UP TO
185 MILES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ON RAGASA.

$$

M. AYDLETT=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 2518 RAGASA (2518)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS RAGASA IS LOCATED AT 16.5N, 130.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
AN UPPER VORTEX UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND
REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 191200
WARNING 191200.
WARNING VALID 201200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2518 RAGASA (2518) 994 HPA
AT 16.5N 130.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 17.6N 128.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 19.2N 126.0E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 20.1N 121.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 21.3N 117.2E WITH 125 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 21.3N 113.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191200UTC 16.5N 130.0E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 201200UTC 17.6N 128.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 211200UTC 19.2N 126.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 221200UTC 20.1N 121.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 231200UTC 21.3N 117.2E 125NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
120HF 241200UTC 21.3N 113.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 190900
WARNING 190900.
WARNING VALID 200900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2518 RAGASA (2518) 998 HPA
AT 16.4N 130.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200900UTC AT 17.6N 129.3E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 190900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190900UTC 16.4N 130.1E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 200900UTC 17.6N 129.3E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 210600UTC 19.0N 127.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 220600UTC 19.9N 123.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
93HF 230600UTC 20.8N 118.5E 125NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
117HF 240600UTC 21.5N 114.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 190926
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ragasa (24W) Advisory Number 4
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP242025
726 PM ChST Fri Sep 19 2025

...TROPICAL STORM RAGASA CONTINUES MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
PHILIPPINE SEA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...16.2N 130.5E

About 670 miles north-northwest of Koror
About 690 miles northwest of Yap
About 970 miles west-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...45 mph
Present movement...west...280 degrees at 6 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Ragasa
was located near Latitude 16.2 degrees North and Longitude 130.5
degrees East. Ragasa is moving west at 6 mph. It is expected to
make a slight turn toward the west-northwest with little change
in forward speed through Saturday as it continues into the western
Philippine Sea.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 45 mph. Ragasa is forecast to
steadily intensify the next few days, possibly to become a typhoon
Saturday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
160 miles, mainly to the northeast and southwest.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 AM ChST early Saturday morning.

$$

DeCou


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 2518 RAGASA (2518)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS RAGASA IS LOCATED AT 16.1N, 130.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND
LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 16.1N 130.6E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 17.6N 129.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 210600UTC 19.0N 127.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 220600UTC 19.9N 123.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 230600UTC 20.8N 118.5E 125NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
120HF 240600UTC 21.5N 114.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 190600
WARNING 190600.
WARNING VALID 200600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2518 RAGASA (2518) 998 HPA
AT 16.1N 130.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 17.6N 129.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 19.0N 127.1E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 19.9N 123.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 20.8N 118.5E WITH 125 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 21.5N 114.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 190300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190300UTC 15.7N 131.2E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 200300UTC 17.0N 130.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 210000UTC 18.3N 128.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 220000UTC 19.4N 124.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
93HF 230000UTC 20.1N 120.0E 125NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
117HF 240000UTC 20.9N 115.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 190300
WARNING 190300.
WARNING VALID 200300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2518 RAGASA (2518) 998 HPA
AT 15.7N 131.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200300UTC AT 17.0N 130.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 190329
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ragasa (24W) Advisory Number 3
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP242025
129 PM ChST Fri Sep 19 2025

...TROPICAL STORM RAGASA CONTINUES MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
PHILIPPINE SEA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...16.1N 131.1E

About 645 miles north-northwest of Koror
About 655 miles northwest of Yap
About 930 miles west-northwest of Guam
About 975 miles west of Saipan

Maximum sustained winds...45 mph
Present movement...west...270 degrees at 12 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Ragasa
was located near Latitude 16.1 degrees North and Longitude
131.1 degrees East. Ragasa is moving west at 12 mph. It is
expected to make a slight turn toward the west-northwest with a
decrease in forward speed through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 45 mph. Ragasa is
forecast to intensify through tonight.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
130 miles to the east and up to 10 miles to the west.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 PM ChST.

$$

Doll


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 2518 RAGASA (2518)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS RAGASA IS LOCATED AT 15.7N, 131.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE
LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT96
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 16.0N 131.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 131.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.2N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.4N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.1N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.9N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.2N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.3N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.5N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 131.1E.
19SEP25. TROPICAL STORM 24W (RAGASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 602
NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190000Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W (MITAG) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 25W (NEOGURI) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 190300
WARNING ATCG MIL 24W NWP 250919012753
2025091900 24W RAGASA 003 03 270 10 SATL 060
T000 160N 1313E 040 R034 115 NE QD 100 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 162N 1304E 055 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 164N 1297E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 171N 1290E 080 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 179N 1278E 095 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 192N 1247E 120 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 220 NW QD
T096 203N 1197E 120 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 180 SE QD 130 SW QD 220 NW QD
T120 215N 1156E 100 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 16.0N 131.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 131.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.2N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.4N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.1N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.9N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.2N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.3N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.5N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 131.1E.
19SEP25. TROPICAL STORM 24W (RAGASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 602
NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190000Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2425091606 130N1383E 15
2425091612 132N1375E 15
2425091618 134N1371E 15
2425091700 136N1366E 20
2425091706 144N1358E 20
2425091712 151N1351E 20
2425091718 149N1346E 20
2425091800 153N1341E 20
2425091806 157N1334E 25
2425091812 159N1330E 30
2425091818 160N1323E 35
2425091900 160N1313E 40
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 15.7N 131.9E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 16.8N 130.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 210000UTC 18.3N 128.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 220000UTC 19.4N 124.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 230000UTC 20.1N 120.0E 125NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
120HF 240000UTC 20.9N 115.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 190000
WARNING 190000.
WARNING VALID 200000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2518 RAGASA (2518) 998 HPA
AT 15.7N 131.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 16.8N 130.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 18.3N 128.2E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 19.4N 124.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 20.1N 120.0E WITH 125 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 20.9N 115.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 182100
WARNING 182100.
WARNING VALID 192100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2518 RAGASA (2518) 998 HPA
AT 16.1N 132.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 192100UTC AT 16.6N 130.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 182100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 182100UTC 16.1N 132.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 192100UTC 16.6N 130.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 201800UTC 18.1N 129.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 211800UTC 19.4N 126.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 221800UTC 20.0N 121.4E 125NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
117HF 231800UTC 20.8N 116.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 182108
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ragasa (24W) Advisory Number 2
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP242025
708 AM ChST Fri Sep 19 2025

...RAGASA NOW A TROPICAL STORM IN THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE SEA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
Ragasa (24W) is now a tropical storm.

Forecast track/intensity graphics are available from the Joint
Typhoon Warning Center web page at
www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2425.gif

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...16.3N 132.0E

About 625 miles northwest of Yap
About 640 miles north-northwest of Koror
About 875 miles west-northwest of Guam
About 915 miles west of Saipan

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...295 degrees at 8 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Ragasa was
located near Latitude 16.3 degrees North and Longitude 132.0 degrees
East. Ragasa is moving west-northwest at 8 mph. It is expected to
maintain a northwest to west-northwest course with a slight decrease
in forward speed through Saturday as it continues into the western
Philippine Sea.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 40 mph. Ragasa is forecast
to steadily intensify the next couple of days, possibly to become a
typhoon Saturday.

Tropical storm force winds are mainly found in the southeast
quadrant, extending outward from the center up to 115 miles in that
direction.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 200 PM ChST.

$$

Aydlett


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2518 RAGASA (2518)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS RAGASA IS LOCATED AT 16.1N, 132.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER VORTEX UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND
REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 182100
WARNING ATCG MIL 24W NWP 250918192232
2025091818 24W RAGASA 002 03 295 07 SATL 060
T000 162N 1323E 035 R034 000 NE QD 100 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 165N 1313E 050 R050 020 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 168N 1305E 060 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 172N 1299E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 080 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 181N 1292E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 192N 1260E 115 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 120 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 203N 1219E 115 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 120 SW QD 210 NW QD
T120 215N 1169E 105 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 16.2N 132.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 132.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.5N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.8N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.2N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.1N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.2N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.3N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 21.5N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 132.0E.
18SEP25. TROPICAL STORM 24W (RAGASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 526
NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181800Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2425091606 130N1383E 15
2425091612 132N1375E 15
2425091618 134N1371E 15
2425091700 136N1366E 20
2425091706 144N1358E 20
2425091712 151N1351E 20
2425091718 149N1346E 20
2425091800 153N1341E 20
2425091806 157N1334E 25
2425091812 159N1330E 30
2425091818 162N1323E 35
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 16.2N 132.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 132.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.5N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.8N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.2N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.1N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.2N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.3N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 21.5N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 132.0E.
18SEP25. TROPICAL STORM 24W (RAGASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 526
NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181800Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W (MITAG) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 25W (NEOGURI) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 181842
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ragasa (24W) Advisory Number 1
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP242025
442 AM ChST Fri Sep 19 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W FORMS NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
Tropical Depression 24W (Ragasa) forms north-northwest of Palau.

Up to date forecast track/intensity graphics are available from
the Joint Typhoon Warning Center web page at
www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2425.gif

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...16.0N 132.7E

About 575 miles northwest of Yap
About 610 miles north of Koror
About 825 miles west-northwest of Guam
About 870 miles west of Saipan

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...300 degrees at 5 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression
Ragasa was located near Latitude 16.0 degrees North and Longitude
132.7 degrees East. Ragasa is moving west-northwest at 5 mph and
is expected to continue west-northwest with little change in
forward speed the next few days. As currently forecast, Ragasa
will pass near and just north of the Philippines Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph. Ragasa is forecast to
strengthen, likely becoming a tropical storm later today.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 AM ChST.

$$

M. Aydlett


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 181800
WARNING 181800.
WARNING VALID 191800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2518 RAGASA (2518) 998 HPA
AT 16.1N 132.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 16.5N 130.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 18.1N 129.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 19.4N 126.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 20.0N 121.4E WITH 125 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 20.8N 116.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 16.1N 132.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 16.5N 130.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 201800UTC 18.1N 129.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 211800UTC 19.4N 126.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 221800UTC 20.0N 121.4E 125NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
120HF 231800UTC 20.8N 116.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 181500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180551ZSEP2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 15.9N 133.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 133.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.2N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.4N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.8N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.6N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.7N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.4N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 20.2N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 132.7E.
18SEP25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (RAGASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
849 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181200Z IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W (MITAG) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (NEOGURI) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PGTW 180600).//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED REFERENCE.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 181500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2518 RAGASA (2518)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181500UTC 16.0N 132.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 191500UTC 16.4N 130.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 201200UTC 17.7N 130.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 211200UTC 19.1N 127.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 221200UTC 19.4N 123.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 231200UTC 19.7N 117.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2518 RAGASA (2518)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 15.2N, 132.7E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(RAGASA) STATUS. TS RAGASA IS LOCATED AT 15.7N, 133.0E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER VORTEX UNTIL
FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 181200
WARNING 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2518 RAGASA (2518) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1002 HPA
AT 15.7N 133.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 16.5N 130.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 17.7N 130.1E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 19.1N 127.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 19.4N 123.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 19.7N 117.8E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2518 RAGASA (2518) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 15.7N 133.0E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 16.5N 130.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 201200UTC 17.7N 130.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 211200UTC 19.1N 127.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 221200UTC 19.4N 123.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 231200UTC 19.7N 117.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =