Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for GOMBE-22 in Madagascar from 07 Mar 2022 18:00 UTC to 10 Mar 2022 10:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GOMBE-22

in Madagascar

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
1 min - 10 min
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact
10 min
1 min

Tropical Cyclone GOMBE-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Glide number:	TC-2022-000182-MDG
Exposed countries	Mozambique
Exposed population	870 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	190 km/h (1-min*)
Maximum storm surge	1 m (11 Mar 05:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 10 Mar 2022 22:00 - 11 Mar 2022 10:00 in Mozambique
* GDACS: 1-min sustained winds; WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France: 10-min average

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind (1-min*)	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	190 km/h	1.0 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	190 km/h	1.0 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: latest forecast, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind
10 min
1 min

Impact Timeline
10 min
1 min

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h) (1-min*)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	07 Mar 2022 16:00	158	1.3 million	110 thousand	Mozambique
2	07 Mar 2022 22:00	74	630 thousand	No people	Madagascar
3	08 Mar 2022 04:00	74	340 thousand	No people	Madagascar
4	08 Mar 2022 10:00	169	4.2 million	400 thousand	Mozambique
5	08 Mar 2022 16:00	179	5.3 million	200 thousand	Mozambique
6	08 Mar 2022 22:00	190	4.9 million	380 thousand	Mozambique
7	09 Mar 2022 04:00	190	3.8 million	510 thousand	Mozambique
8	09 Mar 2022 10:00	211	5.2 million	200 thousand	Mozambique
9	09 Mar 2022 16:00	211	4.3 million	170 thousand	Mozambique
10	09 Mar 2022 22:00	201	4.2 million	1.2 million	Mozambique
11	10 Mar 2022 04:00	201	4.5 million	110 thousand	Mozambique
12	10 Mar 2022 10:00	190	4.2 million	870 thousand	Mozambique

Bulletin Timeline
10 min
1 min

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h) (1-min*)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Category (WMO/RSMC) **	Max winds (km/h) (WMO/RSMC)	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	07 Mar 2022 16:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	15000 people	Tropical Depression	56	-15.5, 51.7
2	07 Mar 2022 22:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	630000 people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-15.7, 51
3	08 Mar 2022 04:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	340000 people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-15.5, 50.1	Madagascar
4	08 Mar 2022 10:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	570000 people	Overland Depression	56	-15.3, 49.4	Madagascar
5	08 Mar 2022 16:00	Tropical depression	42	no people	no people	Overland Depression	37	-14.9, 48.3	Madagascar
6	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	20000 people	Overland Depression	56	-14.9, 47.6	Madagascar
7	09 Mar 2022 04:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-14.9, 46.8
8	09 Mar 2022 10:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-14.8, 46
9	09 Mar 2022 16:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-15.2, 45.3
10	09 Mar 2022 22:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-15.4, 44.3
11	10 Mar 2022 04:00	Tropical storm	116	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	102	-15.4, 43.5
12	10 Mar 2022 10:00	Category 1	137	no people	200000 people	Tropical Cyclone	120	-15.7, 42.8
12	10 Mar 2022 22:00	Category 3	179	390000 people	3.2 million people	Tropical Cyclone	157	-15.6, 41.4
12	11 Mar 2022 10:00	Category 3	190	800000 people	3.2 million people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	167	-15.5, 40	Mozambique
12	11 Mar 2022 22:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	300000 people	Overland Depression	56	-15.4, 38.7	Mozambique
12	12 Mar 2022 10:00	Tropical depression	42	no people	no people	Overland Depression	37	-15.4, 37.9	Mozambique
12	12 Mar 2022 22:00	Tropical depression	42	no people	no people	Overland Depression	37	-15.6, 37.2	Mozambique
12	13 Mar 2022 10:00	Tropical depression	42	no people	no people	Overland Depression	37	-16, 37	Mozambique
12	13 Mar 2022 22:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-16.5, 37.1	Mozambique
12	14 Mar 2022 22:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-18.5, 38.7
12	15 Mar 2022 10:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-19.4, 39.6

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mozambique

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Nampula	Mozambique

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Quinga		Mozambique

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.0m in Barroa, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 11 Mar 2022 05:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

The storm surge calculations have been performed using 1 min atmospheric wind forcing

Locations affected by Storm surge (68 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 12 of 10 Mar 2022 10:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	11 Mar 2022 05:00	Barroa	Mozambique	1.0
	11 Mar 2022 06:00	Metopa	Mozambique	0.8
	11 Mar 2022 06:00	Momade	Mozambique	0.5
	11 Mar 2022 06:00	Quinga	Mozambique	0.5
	11 Mar 2022 06:00	Metula	Mozambique	0.5
	11 Mar 2022 08:00	Muaco	Mozambique	0.4
	11 Mar 2022 03:00	Ali	Mozambique	0.4
	11 Mar 2022 05:00	Coluvelane	Mozambique	0.4
	09 Mar 2022 00:00	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Mar 2022 00:00	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Mar 2022 00:00	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Mar 2022 00:00	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.4
	08 Mar 2022 06:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Mar 2022 06:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Terrene	Mozambique	0.3
	09 Mar 2022 00:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Mar 2022 05:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Mar 2022 06:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Mar 2022 00:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Mar 2022 06:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Mar 2022 07:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Mar 2022 00:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2022 00:00	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 03:00	Lunga	Mozambique	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 03:00	Injaca	Mozambique	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 03:00	Calajulo	Mozambique	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 05:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 08:00	Nantapa	Mozambique	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 09:00	Namuali	Mozambique	0.2
	09 Mar 2022 00:00	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 07:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 04:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 02:00	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 10:00	Namacoto	Mozambique	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 02:00	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 02:00	Ampanavoana	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 21:00	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2022 00:00	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 02:00	Antanjokatafana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 06:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 05:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 02:00	Maniroka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 23:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Lumbo	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Mosengeri	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Mocambique	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Mar 2022 05:00	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Mar 2022 01:00	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 02:00	Ratsianarana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 02:00	Ambodivato	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 06:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 04:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Mar 2022 00:00	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Mar 2022 05:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 09:00	Metapa	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 05:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 05:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 23:00	Singalana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 23:00	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 23:00	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 23:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 23:00	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 23:00	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Mar 2022 02:00	Anjajavy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Mar 2022 01:00	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 03:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 02:00	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 09:00	Raraga	Mozambique	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

Impact 10 min1 min