Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for GOMBE-22 in Madagascar from 07 Mar 2022 18:00 UTC to 11 Mar 2022 16:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GOMBE-22

in Madagascar

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
1 min - 10 min
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact
10 min
1 min

Tropical Cyclone GOMBE-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Glide number:	TC-2022-000182-MDG
Exposed countries	Mozambique
Exposed population	1.1 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	190 km/h (1-min*)
Maximum storm surge	0.8 m (11 Mar 05:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 10 Mar 2022 22:00 - 11 Mar 2022 04:00 in Mozambique
* GDACS: 1-min sustained winds; WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France: 10-min average

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind (1-min*)	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	84 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	190 km/h	0.8 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: latest forecast, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind
10 min
1 min

Impact Timeline
10 min
1 min

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h) (1-min*)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	07 Mar 2022 16:00	158	1.3 million	110 thousand	Mozambique
2	07 Mar 2022 22:00	74	630 thousand	No people	Madagascar
3	08 Mar 2022 04:00	74	340 thousand	No people	Madagascar
4	08 Mar 2022 10:00	169	4.2 million	400 thousand	Mozambique
5	08 Mar 2022 16:00	179	5.3 million	200 thousand	Mozambique
6	08 Mar 2022 22:00	190	4.9 million	380 thousand	Mozambique
7	09 Mar 2022 04:00	190	3.8 million	510 thousand	Mozambique
8	09 Mar 2022 10:00	211	5.2 million	200 thousand	Mozambique
9	09 Mar 2022 16:00	211	4.3 million	170 thousand	Mozambique
10	09 Mar 2022 22:00	201	4.2 million	1.2 million	Mozambique
11	10 Mar 2022 04:00	201	4.5 million	110 thousand	Mozambique
12	10 Mar 2022 10:00	190	4.2 million	870 thousand	Mozambique
13	10 Mar 2022 16:00	190	2.3 million	480 thousand	Mozambique
14	10 Mar 2022 22:00	190	5.9 million	1.8 million	Mozambique
15	11 Mar 2022 04:00	190	5.8 million	1.3 million	Mozambique
16	11 Mar 2022 10:00	127	6.6 million	1.3 million	Mozambique
17	11 Mar 2022 16:00	84	5.3 million	1.1 million	Mozambique

Bulletin Timeline
10 min
1 min

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h) (1-min*)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Category (WMO/RSMC) **	Max winds (km/h) (WMO/RSMC)	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	07 Mar 2022 16:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	15000 people	Tropical Depression	56	-15.5, 51.7
2	07 Mar 2022 22:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	630000 people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-15.7, 51
3	08 Mar 2022 04:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	340000 people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-15.5, 50.1	Madagascar
4	08 Mar 2022 10:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	570000 people	Overland Depression	56	-15.3, 49.4	Madagascar
5	08 Mar 2022 16:00	Tropical depression	42	no people	no people	Overland Depression	37	-14.9, 48.3	Madagascar
6	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	20000 people	Overland Depression	56	-14.9, 47.6	Madagascar
7	09 Mar 2022 04:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-14.9, 46.8
8	09 Mar 2022 10:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-14.8, 46
9	09 Mar 2022 16:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-15.2, 45.3
10	09 Mar 2022 22:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-15.4, 44.3
11	10 Mar 2022 04:00	Tropical storm	116	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	102	-15.4, 43.5
12	10 Mar 2022 10:00	Category 1	137	no people	200000 people	Tropical Cyclone	120	-15.7, 42.8
13	10 Mar 2022 16:00	Category 1	148	17000 people	820000 people	Tropical Cyclone	130	-15.8, 42
14	10 Mar 2022 22:00	Category 2	158	410000 people	4.4 million people	Tropical Cyclone	139	-15.6, 41.3
15	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Category 3	190	340000 people	3.8 million people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	167	-15.4, 40.6	Mozambique
16	11 Mar 2022 10:00	Category 1	127	1.2 million people	4.6 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	111	-15.3, 39.7	Mozambique
17	11 Mar 2022 16:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	2.7 million people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-15.4, 39.1	Mozambique
17	12 Mar 2022 04:00	Tropical depression	42	no people	no people	Overland Depression	37	-15.3, 38.2	Mozambique
17	12 Mar 2022 16:00	Tropical depression	42	no people	no people	Overland Depression	37	-15.4, 37.4	Mozambique
17	13 Mar 2022 04:00	Tropical depression	42	no people	no people	Overland Depression	37	-15.9, 36.9	Mozambique
17	13 Mar 2022 16:00	Tropical depression	42	no people	no people	Overland Depression	37	-16.8, 36.9	Mozambique
17	14 Mar 2022 16:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-18.6, 38.4
17	15 Mar 2022 04:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-19.4, 39.2
17	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-19.9, 39.6
17	16 Mar 2022 04:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-20.4, 39.9
17	16 Mar 2022 16:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-21.1, 40.3

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mozambique
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Nampula	Mozambique
Zambezia	Mozambique
Mahajanga	Madagascar
Toamasina	Madagascar
Antsiranana	Madagascar

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Nampula	Nampula	Mozambique	City	380000 people
Moçambique		Mozambique	Major city	48000 people
Nacala	Nampula	Mozambique	City	220000 people
Maroantsetra	Toamasina	Madagascar	City	24000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Nampula	APL	444	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6500
Angoche	ANO	36	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3600
Lumbo		10	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Nacala	MNC	125	Mil.	Paved	No	8200
Befandriana	WBD	250	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4100
Maroantsetra	WMN	4	Civ.	Paved	No	4200

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Angoche	MZANO	Mozambique
Quinga		Mozambique
Mocambique	MZMZQ	Mozambique
Mozambique	MZMZQ	Mozambique
Nacala	MZMNC	Mozambique
Memba	MZMEM	Mozambique
Maroantsetra	MGWMN	Madagascar

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Nacala	Moecula	1971

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

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StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.8m in Barroa, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 11 Mar 2022 05:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

The storm surge calculations have been performed using 1 min atmospheric wind forcing

Locations affected by Storm surge (174 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 17 of 11 Mar 2022 16:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	11 Mar 2022 05:00	Barroa	Mozambique	0.8
	11 Mar 2022 05:00	Coluvelane	Mozambique	0.8
	11 Mar 2022 05:00	Terrene	Mozambique	0.7
	11 Mar 2022 06:00	Metopa	Mozambique	0.5
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Ali	Mozambique	0.5
	15 Mar 2022 15:00	Maconharumo	Mozambique	0.5
	15 Mar 2022 15:00	Amado	Mozambique	0.5
	15 Mar 2022 05:00	Nhangau	Mozambique	0.5
	15 Mar 2022 05:00	Chamba	Mozambique	0.5
	15 Mar 2022 05:00	Beira	Mozambique	0.5
	15 Mar 2022 05:00	Damiao	Mozambique	0.5
	09 Mar 2022 00:00	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Mar 2022 00:00	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.4
	15 Mar 2022 15:00	Chimuaza	Mozambique	0.4
	09 Mar 2022 00:00	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.4
	15 Mar 2022 05:00	Chofandicho	Mozambique	0.4
	15 Mar 2022 10:00	Tama	Mozambique	0.3
	15 Mar 2022 10:00	Jonja	Mozambique	0.3
	08 Mar 2022 06:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Mar 2022 06:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	15 Mar 2022 10:00	Machesse	Mozambique	0.3
	09 Mar 2022 00:00	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.3
	15 Mar 2022 10:00	Panaca	Mozambique	0.3
	09 Mar 2022 00:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Mar 2022 05:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.3
	11 Mar 2022 11:00	Muaco	Mozambique	0.3
	15 Mar 2022 12:00	Mulia	Mozambique	0.3
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Mar 2022 06:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.3
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Lumbo	Mozambique	0.3
	11 Mar 2022 07:00	Quinga	Mozambique	0.3
	11 Mar 2022 06:00	Metula	Mozambique	0.3
	15 Mar 2022 05:00	Manica	Mozambique	0.3
	09 Mar 2022 00:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Mar 2022 06:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.3
	11 Mar 2022 13:00	Mocareja	Mozambique	0.3
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.3
	11 Mar 2022 13:00	Namacoto	Mozambique	0.3
	08 Mar 2022 07:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.3
	15 Mar 2022 10:00	Bingue	Mozambique	0.3
	15 Mar 2022 10:00	Rupia	Mozambique	0.3
	15 Mar 2022 12:00	Ocone	Mozambique	0.3
	15 Mar 2022 12:00	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.3
	15 Mar 2022 12:00	Barra	Mozambique	0.3
	11 Mar 2022 14:00	Caramaca	Mozambique	0.3
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.3
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.3
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.3
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.3
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.3
	11 Mar 2022 13:00	Nantapa	Mozambique	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Inhangulue	Mozambique	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Mendozo	Mozambique	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Magromane	Mozambique	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 12:00	Vila do Chinde	Mozambique	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2022 00:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2022 00:00	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 14:00	Metapa	Mozambique	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Manometimay	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 13:00	Natiquinde	Mozambique	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 05:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 13:00	Caliua	Mozambique	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 13:00	Raraga	Mozambique	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 13:00	Morrua	Mozambique	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Onara	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2022 00:00	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 13:00	Tomodo	Mozambique	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 13:00	Mutiba	Mozambique	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 14:00	Murrumuana	Mozambique	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 12:00	Namuali	Mozambique	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 13:00	Napito	Mozambique	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 14:00	Pebane	Mozambique	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 07:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 04:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 14:00	Carramali	Mozambique	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 14:00	Bajone	Mozambique	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 14:00	Mutadua	Mozambique	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 04:00	Nova Sofala	Mozambique	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Belo-sur-Mer	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 02:00	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 02:00	Ampanavoana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 12:00	Coropoa	Mozambique	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 12:00	Larde	Mozambique	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 04:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Antsamaka	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Mossuril	Mozambique	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 13:00	Chululu	Mozambique	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 13:00	Moebase	Mozambique	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Morondava	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 05:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2022 00:00	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Ankiliabo	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 14:00	Namelala	Mozambique	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 14:00	Maaia	Mozambique	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 02:00	Antanjokatafana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 06:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 02:00	Maniroka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 06:00	Momade	Mozambique	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 15:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 05:00	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 23:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Mosengeri	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 07:00	Cabaceira	Mozambique	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 15:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 15:00	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 05:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 05:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 05:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 05:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 05:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 02:00	Ratsianarana	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Mocambique	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 10:00	Namorre	Mozambique	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 05:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 05:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 05:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 05:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 05:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 05:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Mar 2022 01:00	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 06:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 05:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 02:00	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Mar 2022 00:00	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 14:00	Lunga	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 02:00	Matibane	Mozambique	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 04:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 05:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 04:00	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 04:00	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 05:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 05:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 16:00	Chiloane	Mozambique	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Mar 2022 05:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 02:00	Ambodivato	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 05:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 05:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 23:00	Singalana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 23:00	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 23:00	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 23:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 23:00	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 23:00	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 23:00	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 07:00	Calajulo	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 10:00	Injaca	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Sanhute	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Miaola	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Mar 2022 02:00	Anjajavy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Mar 2022 01:00	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Mar 2022 16:00	Morombe	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

Impact 10 min1 min