Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for BERGUITTA-18
in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BERGUITTA-18 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
Exposed population 340 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 194 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (18 Jan 05:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Reunion)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 83 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 194 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

83 km/h Current

Up to 870000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 12 Jan 2018 18:00 176 1.3 million No people Mauritius
Green 2 13 Jan 2018 00:00 176 2.2 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Orange 3 13 Jan 2018 06:00 176 2.2 million 1.2 million Mauritius
Orange 4 13 Jan 2018 12:00 176 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Orange 5 13 Jan 2018 18:00 167 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Orange 6 14 Jan 2018 00:00 167 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Orange 7 14 Jan 2018 06:00 167 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Orange 8 14 Jan 2018 12:00 176 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Orange 9 14 Jan 2018 18:00 176 3 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Red 10 15 Jan 2018 00:00 185 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Red 11 15 Jan 2018 06:00 194 2.2 million 1.8 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Red 12 15 Jan 2018 12:00 194 2.2 million 1.5 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Red 13 15 Jan 2018 18:00 185 2.2 million 1.4 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Orange 14 16 Jan 2018 00:00 176 2.2 million 1.3 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Orange 15 16 Jan 2018 06:00 157 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Orange 16 16 Jan 2018 12:00 157 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Orange 17 16 Jan 2018 18:00 139 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Orange 18 17 Jan 2018 00:00 139 2.2 million 1.8 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Orange 19 17 Jan 2018 06:00 130 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Orange 20 17 Jan 2018 12:00 120 2.2 million 2.1 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Orange 21 17 Jan 2018 18:00 120 2.2 million 1.3 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Orange 22 18 Jan 2018 00:00 120 2.2 million 1.6 million Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Orange 23 18 Jan 2018 06:00 120 2.2 million 740 thousand Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Green 24 18 Jan 2018 12:00 120 2.2 million 760 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
Green 25 18 Jan 2018 18:00 111 3.2 million 880 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
Green 26 19 Jan 2018 00:00 102 3.3 million 880 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
Green 27 19 Jan 2018 06:00 102 3 million 880 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
Green 28 19 Jan 2018 12:00 93 2.3 million 880 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
Green 29 19 Jan 2018 18:00 93 2.3 million 880 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
Green 30 20 Jan 2018 00:00 83 2.3 million 880 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
Green 31 20 Jan 2018 06:00 83 2.3 million 880 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 12 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -17, 66.9
GREEN
2 13 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -17.3, 65.6
GREEN
3 13 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 43000 people no people -17.7, 64.9 Mauritius
GREEN
4 13 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 43000 people no people -17.9, 64 Mauritius
GREEN
5 13 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 74 43000 people no people -18.3, 63.6 Mauritius
GREEN
6 14 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 93 43000 people no people -18.2, 63.4 Mauritius
GREEN
7 14 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 102 43000 people no people -18.1, 63 Mauritius
GREEN
8 14 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 102 43000 people no people -18.1, 62.9 Mauritius
GREEN
9 14 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 43000 people no people -18, 63.1 Mauritius
GREEN
10 15 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 43000 people no people -17.8, 63.2 Mauritius
GREEN
11 15 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 1 139 43000 people no people -17.8, 63.2 Mauritius
GREEN
12 15 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 2 167 43000 people no people -18, 63 Mauritius
GREEN
13 15 Jan 2018 18:00 Category 3 185 43000 people no people -18.1, 62.6 Mauritius
GREEN
14 16 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 3 185 1.2 million people no people -18.2, 61.9 Mauritius
GREEN
15 16 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 2 176 1.3 million people no people -18, 61.6 Mauritius
GREEN
16 16 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 2 157 1.3 million people no people -18.2, 61.1 Mauritius
GREEN
17 16 Jan 2018 18:00 Category 1 148 1.3 million people no people -18.2, 60.8 Mauritius
GREEN
18 17 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 1 148 1.2 million people no people -18.3, 60.6 Mauritius
GREEN
19 17 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 2.1 million people no people -18.1, 60.2 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
GREEN
20 17 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 1 120 2.1 million people no people -18.3, 59.8 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
ORANGE
21 17 Jan 2018 18:00 Category 1 120 2.1 million people 330000 people -18.9, 59.5 Mauritius
ORANGE
22 18 Jan 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 2.1 million people 1.2 million people -19.7, 58.5 Mauritius
ORANGE
23 18 Jan 2018 06:00 Category 1 120 2.1 million people 200000 people -20.7, 57.6 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
GREEN
24 18 Jan 2018 12:00 Category 1 120 2.1 million people 30000 people -21.5, 56.6 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
GREEN
25 18 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 2.1 million people no people -22.4, 54.8 Madagascar
GREEN
26 19 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 102 2.9 million people no people -22.8, 54.2 Madagascar
GREEN
27 19 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 102 1.6 million people no people -23.8, 53.4 Madagascar
GREEN
28 19 Jan 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 93 110000 people no people -25, 52.7 Madagascar
GREEN
29 19 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 93 94000 people no people -26.6, 51.2 Madagascar
GREEN
30 20 Jan 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -27.9, 50.3
GREEN
31 20 Jan 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -29.5, 49.6
GREEN
31 20 Jan 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -32.1, 49.5
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Reunion
Mauritius

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Reunion Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands 640000 people
Mauritius Mauritius 1 million people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Plaisance International MRU 57 Civ. Paved Yes 9900 1294 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Saint Pierre Reunion 1081 km
Mahebourg Mauritius 1294 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Maheboug, Mauritius. This height is estimated for 18 Jan 2018 05:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (29 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 31 of 20 Jan 2018 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
18 Jan 2018 05:00 Maheboug Mauritius  0.5
18 Jan 2018 05:00 Riche-en-Eau Mauritius  0.4
18 Jan 2018 06:00 Souillac Mauritius  0.3
18 Jan 2018 06:00 Chemin Grenier Mauritius  0.2
18 Jan 2018 06:00 Choisy Mauritius  0.2
18 Jan 2018 14:00 Saint-Philippe Reunion  0.2
18 Jan 2018 15:00 Les Avirons Reunion  0.2
19 Jan 2018 15:00 Akondro Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2018 13:00 Saint-Benoit Reunion  0.1
18 Jan 2018 04:00 Saint-Antoine Mauritius  0.1
18 Jan 2018 14:00 Petite Ile Reunion  0.1
18 Jan 2018 14:00 Saint-Joseph Reunion  0.1
19 Jan 2018 15:00 Befasy Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2018 04:00 Riviere du Rempart Mauritius  0.1
18 Jan 2018 15:00 Saint-Pierre Reunion  0.1
18 Jan 2018 15:00 Saint-Leu Reunion  0.1
18 Jan 2018 03:00 Grande Reviere Sud Est Mauritius  0.1
18 Jan 2018 05:00 Black River Mauritius  0.1
18 Jan 2018 14:00 Cascades Reunion  0.1
18 Jan 2018 15:00 Saint-Louis Reunion  0.1
20 Jan 2018 01:00 Ankazomanitsy Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2018 01:00 Beaniky Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2018 04:00 Port Louis Mauritius  0.1
18 Jan 2018 04:00 Trou aux Biches Mauritius  0.1
18 Jan 2018 14:00 Sainte-Rose Reunion  0.1
18 Jan 2018 15:00 Etang Sale Reunion  0.1
18 Jan 2018 15:00 Trois Bassins Reunion  0.1
20 Jan 2018 01:00 Iambaro Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2018 01:00 Ambazoamazava Madagascar  0.1