Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SAGAR-18
in Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SAGAR-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 102 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (19 May 07:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Somalia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 93 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 102 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

93 km/h Current

Up to 6.3 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 16 May 2018 18:00 83 3.5 million No people Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti
Green 2 17 May 2018 00:00 83 3 million No people Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti
Green 3 17 May 2018 06:00 93 6 million No people Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti
Green 4 17 May 2018 12:00 102 2.5 million No people Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti
Green 5 17 May 2018 18:00 93 570 thousand No people Yemen, Somalia, Djibouti, Ethiopia
Green 6 18 May 2018 00:00 93 1.6 million No people Somalia, Yemen, Ethiopia
Green 7 18 May 2018 06:00 93 3.3 million No people Somalia, Yemen, Ethiopia
Green 8 18 May 2018 12:00 93 3.7 million No people Somalia, Yemen, Ethiopia
Green 9 18 May 2018 18:00 102 2 million No people Somalia, Yemen, Ethiopia
Green 10 19 May 2018 00:00 102 2.1 million No people Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen
Green 11 19 May 2018 06:00 93 2.9 million No people Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen
Green 12 19 May 2018 12:00 93 6.4 million No people Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 16 May 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 11000 people no people 13.2, 49.5 Yemen
GREEN
2 17 May 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 28000 people no people 13.1, 48.9 Yemen
GREEN
3 17 May 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 34000 people no people 13.2, 48.8 Yemen
GREEN
4 17 May 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 24000 people no people 12.9, 48.1 Yemen
GREEN
5 17 May 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 83 34000 people no people 12.5, 47.2 Somalia
GREEN
6 18 May 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 83 44000 people no people 12, 46.4 Somalia
GREEN
7 18 May 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 93 940000 people no people 11.6, 45.9 Yemen
GREEN
8 18 May 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 93 280000 people no people 11.5, 45.5 Somalia
GREEN
9 18 May 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 230000 people no people 11.3, 45.1 Somalia
GREEN
10 19 May 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 102 700000 people no people 11, 44.6 Somalia
GREEN
11 19 May 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 93 810000 people no people 10.8, 44.2 Somalia
GREEN
12 19 May 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 93 3.1 million people no people 10.3, 43.7 Somalia
GREEN
12 20 May 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 4.2 million people no people 9.6, 42.7 Somalia
GREEN
12 20 May 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 9, 41.9 Ethiopia
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Somalia
Ethiopia
Yemen

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Awdal Somalia -
Woqooyi Galbeed Somalia 1.2 million people
Harerge Ethiopia 5.5 million people
Togdheer Somalia 750000 people
Sanaag Somalia 420000 people
Aden Yemen 3.2 million people
Abyan Yemen -
'Ataq Yemen -
Hadhramaut Yemen -

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Hargeysa Woqooyi Galbeed Somalia City 470000 people 91 km
Saylac Woqooyi Galbeed Somalia City - 119 km
Berbera Woqooyi Galbeed Somalia City 240000 people 144 km
Ji Jiga Harerge Ethiopia City - 145 km
Harar Harerge Ethiopia City - 204 km
Dire Dawa Harerge Ethiopia City 200000 people 216 km
'Adan Yemen Major city 540000 people 310 km
Kraytar Yemen City - 313 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Borama BXX unknown 0 72 km
Hargeisa HGA 1348 0 97 km
Berbera BBO 9 Civ. Paved No 13500 137 km
Aba Tenna Dejazmatch Yilma DIR 1162 Civ. Paved Yes 8800 216 km
Aden International ADE 4 Civ. Paved Yes 10100 315 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Bulhar Somalia 78 km
Zeila Somalia 114 km
Berbera SOBBO Somalia 143 km
Karin Somalia 242 km
Aden YEADE Yemen 311 km
Al Hawra Yemen 574 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Lughaye, Somalia. This height is estimated for 19 May 2018 07:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (14 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 12 of 19 May 2018 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
19 May 2018 07:00 Lughaye Somalia  0.3
19 May 2018 08:00 Harag Jid Somalia  0.2
19 May 2018 09:00 Carmaale Somalia  0.2
19 May 2018 07:00 Sabawanaag Somalia  0.2
19 May 2018 07:00 Hadeytacawl Somalia  0.2
19 May 2018 07:00 Takhushih Somalia  0.2
19 May 2018 07:00 Sheikh Ali Idris Somalia  0.1
19 May 2018 07:00 Saylac Somalia  0.1
19 May 2018 07:00 Biyafoge Somalia  0.1
17 May 2018 21:00 Alela Eritrea  0.1
19 May 2018 03:00 Geeri Somalia  0.1
19 May 2018 05:00 Bullaxaar Somalia  0.1
17 May 2018 21:00 Aseb Eritrea  0.1
17 May 2018 22:00 Fagal Djibouti  0.1