Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for YUTU-18 in Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands on 21 Oct 2018 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for YUTU-18

in Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands

21 Oct 2018 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone YUTU-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands
Exposed population	11 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	287 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.1 m (25 Oct 10:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	231 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	287 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

231 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2500 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
	1	21 Oct 2018 12:00	231	210 thousand	2 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	21 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	<1000 people	8.4, 157.6
1	22 Oct 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	<1000 people	8.9, 156.1
1	22 Oct 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	<1000 people	9.8, 154.7
1	23 Oct 2018 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	<1000 people	11, 153
1	23 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 1	148	no people	51000 people	12.1, 151.4	Guam
1	24 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 3	204	2500 people	210000 people	14.1, 148	Northern Mariana Islands
1	25 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 4	231	no people	190000 people	16.2, 145.9	Guam
1	26 Oct 2018 12:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	18.8, 145

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Northern Mariana Is.

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Northern Mariana Is.	Northern Mariana Islands

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Nikko		18				0
Pagan Airstrip		10				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Farallon de Medinilla		Northern Mariana Islands
Guguan Island		Northern Mariana Islands
Pagan Island		Northern Mariana Islands

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in Garapan, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 25 Oct 2018 10:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (11 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 1 of 21 Oct 2018 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	25 Oct 2018 10:00	Garapan	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	25 Oct 2018 10:00	Mutcho	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	25 Oct 2018 07:00	Aslito	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	25 Oct 2018 10:00	Tanapag	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	25 Oct 2018 10:00	San Roque	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	25 Oct 2018 07:00	Afetna	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	25 Oct 2018 05:00	Susupi	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	25 Oct 2018 05:00	Laolao	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	25 Oct 2018 05:00	Chalan Kanoa	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	25 Oct 2018 07:00	Saipan	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	25 Oct 2018 07:00	Kagman	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.