Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Exposed population 1.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 194 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1 m (14 Mar 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 222 km/h 2.3 m n.a. 1.5
GDACS Overall 194 km/h 1.0 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

222 km/h Current Max.

Up to 440000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Orange 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 213 6.6 million 870 thousand Mozambique
Orange 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 213 5.6 million 550 thousand Mozambique
Orange 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 204 2.9 million 250 thousand Mozambique
Orange 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 204 4.3 million 340 thousand Mozambique
Orange 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 213 4.1 million 1.3 million Mozambique
Orange 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 213 4.7 million 1.1 million Mozambique
Orange 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 222 5.2 million 440 thousand Mozambique

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 65 100000 people no people -17, 40.2 Mozambique
GREEN
2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -17, 41.3 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
GREEN
3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 1200 people no people -16.9, 42 Madagascar
GREEN
4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 100000 people no people -17.2, 42.4 Madagascar
GREEN
5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 93 69000 people no people -17.4, 42.6 Madagascar
GREEN
6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 102 210000 people no people -17.2, 43 Madagascar
GREEN
7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 Category 1 130 310000 people no people -17.2, 43.2 Madagascar
GREEN
7 11 Mar 2019 06:00 Category 2 157 310000 people no people -17.6, 43.3 Madagascar
GREEN
7 11 Mar 2019 18:00 Category 3 185 190000 people no people -18.2, 43 Madagascar
GREEN
7 12 Mar 2019 06:00 Category 3 204 28000 people no people -18.6, 42.1 Madagascar
GREEN
7 12 Mar 2019 18:00 Category 4 213 no people no people -19, 41.3
GREEN
7 13 Mar 2019 18:00 Category 4 222 1.4 million people <1000 people -19.5, 39.2 Mozambique
ORANGE
7 14 Mar 2019 18:00 Category 4 222 4.5 million people 440000 people -19.2, 36.8 Mozambique
GREEN
7 15 Mar 2019 18:00 Category 2 176 no people no people -18.5, 35.2 Mozambique
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mozambique

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Zambezia Mozambique 3.4 million people
Sofala Mozambique 1.4 million people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Chinde INE unknown 0
Luabo LBM unknown 0
Inhaminga IMG unknown 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Vila Do Chinde Mozambique
Chinde MZINE Mozambique

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.3m in Chofandicho, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 14 Mar 2019 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (147 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 24 of 15 Mar 2019 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

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