Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19
in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
05 Dec 2019 06 UTC
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  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
    Exposed population 50 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 185 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (08 Dec 16:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 130 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 185 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      130 km/h Current Max.

      Up to <1000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 04 Dec 2019 18:00 130 490 thousand No people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 2 05 Dec 2019 06:00 130 670 thousand Few people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 04 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -6.7, 51.6
          GREEN
          		 2 05 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -6.7, 50.9
          GREEN
          		 2 05 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -7.1, 49.6
          GREEN
          		 2 06 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people -7.6, 48.6
          GREEN
          		 2 06 Dec 2019 18:00 Category 1 120 no people <1000 people -8.3, 48 Seychelles
          GREEN
          		 2 07 Dec 2019 06:00 Category 1 130 <1000 people <1000 people -9.3, 47.6 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          GREEN
          		 2 08 Dec 2019 06:00 Category 1 130 no people 79000 people -12, 47 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 2 09 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 610000 people -14.6, 45.9 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 2 10 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -17.4, 44.5 Madagascar
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Glorioso Is.

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Glorioso Is. Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Cosmoledo Island Seychelles
          Astove Island Seychelles
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.1 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Anjiabe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 08 Dec 2019 16:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (8 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 2 of 05 Dec 2019 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          08 Dec 2019 16:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 06:00 Antonibe Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 06:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 06:00 Antantiloky Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 06:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.1
          08 Dec 2019 14:00 Ampasimena Madagascar  0.1
          08 Dec 2019 15:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 06:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.1