Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20
in Madagascar, Mauritius,
GDACS
Impact Single TC
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Madagascar, Mauritius,
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 74 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (14 Feb 14:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 74 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 74 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

74 km/h Current

Up to 1.8 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 04 Feb 2020 18:00 83 No people No people
Green 2 05 Feb 2020 06:00 83 No people No people
Green 3 05 Feb 2020 18:00 74 No people No people
Green 4 06 Feb 2020 06:00 65 No people No people
Green 5 13 Feb 2020 18:00 93 2.4 million No people Madagascar, Mauritius
Green 6 14 Feb 2020 06:00 74 1.9 million No people Madagascar, Mauritius

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 04 Feb 2020 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -15.8, 66.4
GREEN
2 05 Feb 2020 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -17, 68.2
GREEN
3 05 Feb 2020 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -17.6, 70.3
GREEN
4 06 Feb 2020 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -19.1, 71.7
GREEN
5 13 Feb 2020 18:00 Tropical storm 74 650000 people no people -18.3, 49.9 Madagascar
GREEN
6 14 Feb 2020 06:00 Tropical storm 74 1 million people no people -18.9, 49.5 Madagascar
GREEN
6 14 Feb 2020 18:00 Tropical storm 65 1.3 million people no people -19.3, 48.8 Madagascar
GREEN
6 15 Feb 2020 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -19.4, 48.1 Madagascar
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Madagascar
Mauritius

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Toamasina Madagascar 1.8 million people
Antananarivo Madagascar 4.3 million people
Mauritius Mauritius 1 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Tamatave Toamasina Madagascar City 200000 people
Moramanga Toamasina Madagascar City 28000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Vatomandry VAT 12 Civ. Unpaved No 3800
Toamasina TMM 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
Atsinanana ILK 10 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
Mahanoro VVB 5 Civ. Unpaved No 4400
Rodrigues Plaine Corail RRG 40 Civ. Paved Yes 3300

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Andevoranto Madagascar
Vatomandry MGVAT Madagascar
Tamatave (Toamasina) MGTMM Madagascar
Mahanoro MGVVB Madagascar
Port Mathurin Mauritius

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Mantasoa Varahina-Nord 1938
Tsiazompaniry Varahina-Sud 1956

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Vohitramposina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 14 Feb 2020 14:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (92 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 6 of 14 Feb 2020 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Feb 2020 14:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 15:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 08:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 14:00 Ampitabe Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 06:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 13:00 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 08:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 11:00 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 15:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 17:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 16:00 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 17:00 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Mandrony Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 06:00 Marovoha Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 05:00 Vavony Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 08:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Andamoty Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Maromandia Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 06:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 02:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 03:00 Tampina Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 05:00 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 08:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Ilomotro Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Andohonko Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 00:00 Tamatave Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Mahanoro Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Ambodiharina Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 06:00 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 08:00 Marosakoa Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 02:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 08:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 08:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Androrangambo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 19:00 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 20:00 Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 02:00 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Antananabe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 08:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 08:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 20:00 Ambodihariha Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1