Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for DELTA-20 in United States, Mexico, Cuba, Cayman Islands from 04 Oct 2020 21:00 UTC to 10 Oct 2020 15:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for DELTA-20

in United States, Mexico, Cuba, Cayman Islands

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DELTA-20 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	United States, Mexico, Cuba, Cayman Islands
Exposed population	1.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	231 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.9 m (09 Oct 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 10 Oct 2020 09:00 - 10 Oct 2020 15:00 in United States

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	56 km/h	1.9 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	231 km/h	1.9 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

56 km/h Current Max.

Up to 16.4 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	04 Oct 2020 21:00	157	2.3 million	No people	Cayman Islands, Cuba, United States
2	05 Oct 2020 03:00	167	4.3 million	940 thousand	Cuba, United States
3	05 Oct 2020 09:00	167	5.2 million	1.4 million	United States
4	05 Oct 2020 15:00	167	6.2 million	1.8 million	United States
5	05 Oct 2020 21:00	194	6.8 million	1.3 million	Mexico, United States
6	06 Oct 2020 03:00	185	7 million	1.7 million	Mexico, United States
7	06 Oct 2020 09:00	213	8.8 million	2.1 million	Mexico, United States
8	06 Oct 2020 15:00	222	9.1 million	2.2 million	Mexico, United States
9	06 Oct 2020 21:00	250	10.3 million	1.3 million	Mexico, United States
10	07 Oct 2020 03:00	213	12.1 million	2.9 million	Mexico, United States
11	07 Oct 2020 09:00	185	9.8 million	2 million	Mexico, United States
12	07 Oct 2020 15:00	194	18.2 million	2.1 million	Mexico, United States
13	07 Oct 2020 21:00	185	13.8 million	2 million	Mexico, United States
14	08 Oct 2020 03:00	194	13.2 million	2 million	Mexico, United States
15	08 Oct 2020 09:00	185	15.2 million	1.7 million	Mexico, United States
16	08 Oct 2020 15:00	185	15.8 million	1.8 million	Mexico, United States
17	08 Oct 2020 21:00	194	16.3 million	1.9 million	Mexico, United States
18	09 Oct 2020 03:00	194	14.2 million	1.8 million	United States, Mexico
19	09 Oct 2020 09:00	194	11.7 million	1.7 million	United States, Mexico
20	09 Oct 2020 15:00	185	14.6 million	1.8 million	United States, Mexico
21	09 Oct 2020 21:00	167	16 million	1.7 million	United States, Mexico
22	10 Oct 2020 03:00	120	16.1 million	1.9 million	United States, Mexico
23	10 Oct 2020 09:00	74	16.5 million	1.9 million	United States, Mexico
24	10 Oct 2020 15:00	56	16.4 million	1.9 million	United States, Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	04 Oct 2020 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	16.7, -76.6
2	05 Oct 2020 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	17, -77.3
3	05 Oct 2020 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	17, -78.2
4	05 Oct 2020 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	16.4, -78.6
5	05 Oct 2020 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	16.2, -79.4
6	06 Oct 2020 03:00	Category 1	130	no people	13000 people	16.8, -80.3
7	06 Oct 2020 09:00	Category 2	157	no people	51000 people	17.5, -81.3
8	06 Oct 2020 15:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	18.2, -82.6
9	06 Oct 2020 21:00	Category 4	231	no people	1.2 million people	18.9, -84.1
10	07 Oct 2020 03:00	Category 4	213	1.1 million people	1.5 million people	19.5, -85.1
11	07 Oct 2020 09:00	Category 3	185	1.1 million people	3.1 million people	20.6, -86.4
12	07 Oct 2020 15:00	Category 2	167	98000 people	3.4 million people	21.4, -88	Mexico
13	07 Oct 2020 21:00	Category 1	139	no people	1.9 million people	22.1, -89.5
14	08 Oct 2020 03:00	Category 1	148	no people	1.2 million people	22.5, -90.9
15	08 Oct 2020 09:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	23.4, -91.8
16	08 Oct 2020 15:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	24, -92.7
17	08 Oct 2020 21:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	24.8, -93.4
18	09 Oct 2020 03:00	Category 3	194	no people	230000 people	25.7, -93.6
19	09 Oct 2020 09:00	Category 3	194	no people	3.8 million people	26.9, -93.7
20	09 Oct 2020 15:00	Category 3	185	240000 people	9.8 million people	28, -93.8
21	09 Oct 2020 21:00	Category 2	167	540000 people	11.4 million people	29.3, -93.2
22	10 Oct 2020 03:00	Category 1	120	460000 people	6.1 million people	30.6, -92.6	United States
23	10 Oct 2020 09:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	1.9 million people	31.8, -91.8	United States
24	10 Oct 2020 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	33.1, -90.8	United States
24	11 Oct 2020 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	34.1, -89.3	United States
24	11 Oct 2020 12:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	35.5, -87.4	United States
24	12 Oct 2020 00:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	37.5, -84.8	United States
24	12 Oct 2020 12:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	39.7, -82	United States

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Source: GADM and GHSL

Provinces

Source: GADM and GHSL

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.