Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for MOLAVE-20 in Viet Nam, Laos, Philippines, Cambodia, Thailand from 24 Oct 2020 00:00 UTC to 28 Oct 2020 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for MOLAVE-20

in Viet Nam, Laos, Philippines, Cambodia, Thailand

28 Oct 2020 06 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MOLAVE-20 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Viet Nam, Laos, Philippines, Cambodia, Thailand
Exposed population	4.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	204 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.9 m (25 Oct 10:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Vietnam)
Landfall	between 28 Oct 2020 00:00 - 28 Oct 2020 06:00 in Viet Nam

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	130 km/h	0.8 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	204 km/h	0.9 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

130 km/h Current Max.

Up to 4.9 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	24 Oct 2020 00:00	139	78 million	1.4 million	Viet Nam, Laos
2	24 Oct 2020 06:00	139	102.3 million	2.3 million	Viet Nam, Laos
3	24 Oct 2020 12:00	148	71.8 million	1.8 million	Viet Nam, Laos, Thailand
4	24 Oct 2020 18:00	148	86.9 million	4.8 million	Viet Nam, Laos, Thailand
5	25 Oct 2020 00:00	157	84.2 million	3.9 million	Philippines, Viet Nam, Laos, Cambodia
6	25 Oct 2020 06:00	148	91.6 million	5.7 million	Philippines, Viet Nam, Laos, Thailand
7	25 Oct 2020 12:00	157	83.8 million	10.3 million	Philippines, Viet Nam, Laos, Thailand
8	25 Oct 2020 18:00	157	94.4 million	4.5 million	Philippines, Viet Nam, Laos
9	26 Oct 2020 00:00	148	95.1 million	6.4 million	Philippines, Viet Nam, Laos, Thailand
10	26 Oct 2020 06:00	176	103.1 million	7.7 million	Philippines, Viet Nam, Laos, Thailand
11	26 Oct 2020 12:00	167	94.2 million	4.4 million	Philippines, Viet Nam, Laos
12	26 Oct 2020 18:00	185	119 million	5.4 million	Philippines, Viet Nam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand
13	27 Oct 2020 00:00	185	80.6 million	5 million	Philippines, Viet Nam, Cambodia, Laos
14	27 Oct 2020 06:00	185	85.8 million	5.3 million	Viet Nam, Cambodia, Laos, Philippines, Thailand
15	27 Oct 2020 12:00	194	73 million	4.4 million	Viet Nam, Cambodia, Laos, Philippines
16	27 Oct 2020 18:00	185	92.6 million	5 million	Viet Nam, Laos, Philippines
17	28 Oct 2020 00:00	167	82.1 million	5 million	Viet Nam, Laos, Philippines
18	28 Oct 2020 06:00	130	80.7 million	4.9 million	Viet Nam, Laos, Philippines

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	24 Oct 2020 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	12.5, 131.2
2	24 Oct 2020 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	120000 people	13.2, 129.9
3	24 Oct 2020 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	13.3, 128.9
4	24 Oct 2020 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	2.1 million people	13.5, 127.8
5	25 Oct 2020 00:00	Tropical storm	102	590000 people	8.3 million people	13.4, 126.3
6	25 Oct 2020 06:00	Tropical storm	111	2.3 million people	39.4 million people	13.4, 124.9
7	25 Oct 2020 12:00	Category 1	120	3.6 million people	47.4 million people	13.5, 122.9	Philippines
8	25 Oct 2020 18:00	Category 1	139	950000 people	49 million people	13.2, 121.8	Philippines
9	26 Oct 2020 00:00	Category 1	139	2000 people	40.4 million people	13.3, 120.1
10	26 Oct 2020 06:00	Category 1	148	no people	39.1 million people	13.5, 118.9
11	26 Oct 2020 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	68000 people	13.3, 117.7
12	26 Oct 2020 18:00	Category 2	167	no people	2800 people	13.2, 115.9
13	27 Oct 2020 00:00	Category 3	185	no people	3.7 million people	13.3, 114.7
14	27 Oct 2020 06:00	Category 3	204	no people	13 million people	13.5, 113.4
15	27 Oct 2020 12:00	Category 3	194	660000 people	13 million people	13.9, 112
16	27 Oct 2020 18:00	Category 3	185	1.8 million people	18.3 million people	14.2, 111.3
17	28 Oct 2020 00:00	Category 2	167	2.4 million people	20.8 million people	14.9, 109.8
18	28 Oct 2020 06:00	Category 1	130	1.5 million people	17.5 million people	15.4, 108.5	Viet Nam
18	28 Oct 2020 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	16.7 million people	15.9, 105.8	Laos
18	29 Oct 2020 06:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	16.4, 103.1	Thailand

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Source: GADM and GHSL

Provinces

Source: GADM and GHSL

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

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While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
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