Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
17 Jan 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
    Exposed population 1 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (20 Jan 08:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Mozambique)
    Landfall between
    19 Jan 2021 06:00 - 20 Jan 2021 06:00
    in Madagascar

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 102 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 139 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      102 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 3.1 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 102 3.1 million No people Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -12.6, 62.1
          GREEN
          		 1 17 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -13.1, 59.6
          GREEN
          		 1 18 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -13.7, 57
          GREEN
          		 1 18 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -14.3, 55
          GREEN
          		 1 19 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 1 million people -15, 52.9
          GREEN
          		 1 20 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 2.8 million people -15.5, 50.2 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 1 21 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people 640000 people -16.6, 46.1 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 1 22 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -18.7, 41.9
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar
          Juan De Nova I.

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Antsiranana Madagascar
          Toamasina Madagascar
          Mahajanga Madagascar
          Toliara Madagascar
          Juan De Nova I. Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Antalaha Antsiranana Madagascar City 34000 people
          Sambava Antsiranana Madagascar City 31000 people
          Andapa Antsiranana Madagascar City 20000 people
          Maroantsetra Toamasina Madagascar City 24000 people
          Mananara Toamasina Madagascar City 41000 people
          Mandritsara Mahajanga Madagascar City -
          Marovoay Mahajanga Madagascar City 31000 people
          Ambato Boeni Mahajanga Madagascar City -

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Antalaha Antsirabato ANM 6 Civ. Paved No 3900
          Sambava SVB 6 Civ. Paved No 5900
          Andapa ZWA 473 Civ. Paved No 4100
          Maroantsetra WMN 4 Civ. Paved No 4200
          Mananara Nord WMR 3 Civ. Paved No 4100
          Mandritsara WMA 307 Civ. Unpaved No 3700
          Befandriana WBD 250 Civ. Unpaved No 4100
          Port Berge WPB 65 Civ. Unpaved No 4200
          Tsaratanana TTS 327 Civ. Unpaved No 4300
          Madirovalo WMV unknown 0
          Soalala DWB 43 Civ. Paved No 4100
          Ambatomainty AMY unknown 0
          Morafenobe TVA unknown 0
          Besalampy BPY 38 Civ. Paved No 4900
          Tambohorano WTA 7 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
          Maintirano MXT 30 Civ. Unpaved No 4200

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Antataha MGANM Madagascar
          Sambava MGSVB Madagascar
          Maroantsetra MGWMN Madagascar
          Mananara MGWMR Madagascar
          Soalala MGDWB Madagascar
          Maintirano MGMXT Madagascar

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Ambilivily 1954
          Amboromalandy 1934
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.6 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Maroantsetra, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 20 Jan 2021 08:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (60 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 1 of 17 Jan 2021 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          20 Jan 2021 08:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.6
          20 Jan 2021 08:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.6
          20 Jan 2021 07:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.6
          20 Jan 2021 09:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.5
          20 Jan 2021 08:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.5
          20 Jan 2021 09:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.5
          20 Jan 2021 08:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.5
          20 Jan 2021 08:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.4
          20 Jan 2021 07:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.4
          20 Jan 2021 09:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.4
          20 Jan 2021 03:00 Ratsianarana Madagascar  0.4
          20 Jan 2021 03:00 Ambodivato Madagascar  0.4
          20 Jan 2021 04:00 Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.4
          20 Jan 2021 09:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.3
          20 Jan 2021 09:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.3
          20 Jan 2021 09:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.3
          20 Jan 2021 07:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.3
          20 Jan 2021 09:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.3
          20 Jan 2021 09:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.3
          20 Jan 2021 09:00 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.3
          20 Jan 2021 04:00 Maniroka Madagascar  0.3
          20 Jan 2021 07:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.3
          20 Jan 2021 05:00 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.3
          20 Jan 2021 05:00 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.3
          20 Jan 2021 04:00 Ampanavoana Madagascar  0.3
          20 Jan 2021 02:00 Ambohitralanana Madagascar  0.3
          20 Jan 2021 09:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2021 06:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2021 05:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2021 05:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2021 06:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2021 09:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2021 09:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2021 09:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2021 10:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2021 05:00 Ambalabe Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2021 10:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2021 09:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2021 10:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2021 09:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.2
          20 Jan 2021 10:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2021 10:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2021 09:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2021 08:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2021 10:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2021 04:00 Anjahamarina Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2021 10:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2021 11:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2021 11:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2021 11:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2021 11:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2021 10:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2021 10:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2021 02:00 Ampaha Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2021 02:00 Andrapengy Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2021 02:00 Ambinany Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2021 02:00 Antalaha Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2021 03:00 Antsirabato Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2021 10:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.1
          20 Jan 2021 11:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1