Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 241235
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 36/7/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 24/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.1 S / 29.5 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES UN SUD ET VINGT NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/01/2021 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 26.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 25/01/2021 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 24.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE





2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
ELOISE CONTINUE A S'ENFONCER DANS LES TERRES. LE CENTRE SE SITUE
ACTUELLEMENT DANS LE NORD DE L'AFRIQUE DU SUD. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE
BIEN QUE MOINS PROFONDE RESTE ENCORE PRESENTE PROCHE DU CENTRE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT AU NIVEAU DE LA TRAJECTOIRE : LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
CONTINUER SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN SE DEPLACANT SUR LA
BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LOCALISEE AU SUD-EST DE
MADAGASCAR. PAR LA SUITE, ELOISE VA SE DISSIPER SUR LES HAUTS
PLATEAUX AU SUD DU BOTSWANA

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS, LE RISQUE PRINCIPAL EST UN RISQUE DE FORTES
PLUIES. CE RISQUE CONCERNE D'UNE PART, LE BOTSWANA EN LIEN DIRECT
AVEC LES RESTES D'ELOISE A PARTIR DE DEMAIN JUSQU'A MARDI/MERCREDI ET
D'AUTRE PART LA ZONE NORD-EST DE L'AFRIQUE DU SUD LE SWAZILAND AINSI
QUE LE SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE. EN EFFET, SOUS L'EFFET DE LA REMONTEE D'UN
FRONT FROID, DES FORTES PLUIES DANS LE SECTEUR SUD DE LA DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE ELOISE CONCERNERONT CES ZONES JUSQU'EN JOURNEE DE MARDI.
CES CUMULS POURRAIENT DONNER PLUS DE 100MM SUR 2 A 3 JOURS ET
LOCALEMENT 200 A 300MM.

LES HABITANTS DES PAYS CONCERNES SONT INVITES A SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES
DES AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 241235
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/7/20202021
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1 S / 29.5 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
TWENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/25 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 26.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2021/01/25 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 24.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
ELOISE CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND. THE CENTER IS NOW LOCATED IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH AFRICA. EVEN IF IT NOT SO DEEP, CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS STILL PRESENT NEAR THE CENTER.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK: THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON A
WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK MOVING ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. THEREAFTER, ELOISE
WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF BOTSWANA

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THE MAIN RISK IS RELATED TO THE HEAVY RAINS.
THIS RISK CONCERNS ON THE ONE HAND BOTSWANA IN DIRECT LINK WITH THE
REMAINS OF ELOISE FROM TOMORROW UP TO TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND ON THE
OTHER HAND THE NORTH-EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH AFRICA, ESWATINI AND
SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT,
HEAVY RAINS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE DEPRESSION ON TERRE ELOISE
WILL IMPACT THESE AREAS UP TO TUESDAY. 100MM ARE TO BE EXPECTED OVER
2 TO 3 DAYS AND LOCALLY 200 TO 300MM ARE POSSIBLE.

THE INHABITANTS OF THESE COUNTRIES ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.CONCERNED BY THE RISK OF HEAVY
RAINS IN THE COMING DAYS=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 240635
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 35/7/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 24/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.6 S / 30.5 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES SIX SUD ET TRENTE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/01/2021 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 28.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 25/01/2021 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 26.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 25/01/2021 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 24.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE




2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
ELOISE CONTINUE A S'ENFONCER DANS LES TERRES. LE CENTRE SE SITUE
ACTUELLEMENT DANS LE NORD DE L'AFRIQUE DU SUD. LA PRESSION CENTRALE A
ETE AJUSTEE AVEC LES OBSERVATIONS DISPONIBLES DES DERNIERES HEURES
12H.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT AU NIVEAU DE LA TRAJECTOIRE : LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
CONTINUER SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN SE DEPLACANT SUR LA
BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LOCALISEE AU SUD-EST DE
MADAGASCAR. PAR LA SUITE, ELOISE VA SE DISSIPER SUR LES HAUTS
PLATEAUX AU SUD DU BOTSWANA

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS, LE RISQUE PRINCIPAL EST UN RISQUE DE FORTES
PLUIES. CE RISQUE CONCERNE D'UNE PART, LE BOTSWANA EN LIEN DIRECT
AVEC LES RESTES D'ELOISE A PARTIR DE DEMAIN JUSQU'A MARDI/MERCREDI ET
D'AUTRE PART LA ZONE NORD-EST DE L'AFRIQUE DU SUD LE SWAZILAND AINSI
QUE LE SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE. EN EFFET, SOUS L'EFFET DE LA REMONTEE D'UN
FRONT FROID, DES FORTES PLUIES DANS LE SECTEUR SUD DE LA DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE ELOISE CONCERNERONT CES ZONES JUSQU'EN JOURNEE DE MARDI.
CES CUMULS POURRAIENT DONNER PLUS DE 100MM SUR 2 A 3 JOURS ET
LOCALEMENT 200 A 300MM.

LES HABITANTS DES PAYS CONCERNES SONT INVITES A SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES
DES AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 240635
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/7/20202021
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/24 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.6 S / 30.5 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/24 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 28.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2021/01/25 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 26.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2021/01/25 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 24.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
ELOISE CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND. THE CENTER IS NOW LOCATED IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH AFRICA.CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ADJUSTED WITH THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA OVER THE LAST 12H.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK: THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON A
WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK MOVING ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. THEREAFTER, ELOISE
WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF BOTSWANA

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THE MAIN RISK IS RELATED TO THE HEAVY RAINS.
THIS RISK CONCERNS ON THE ONE HAND BOTSWANA IN DIRECT LINK WITH THE
REMAINS OF ELOISE FROM TOMORROW UP TO TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND ON THE
OTHER HAND THE NORTH-EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH AFRICA, ESWATINI AND
SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT,
HEAVY RAINS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE DEPRESSION ON TERRE ELOISE
WILL IMPACT THESE AREAS UP TO TUESDAY. 100MM ARE TO BE EXPECTED OVER
2 TO 3 DAYS AND LOCALLY 200 TO 300MM ARE POSSIBLE.

THE INHABITANTS OF THESE COUNTRIES ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.CONCERNED BY THE RISK OF HEAVY
RAINS IN THE COMING DAYS=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 240002
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 34/7/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 24/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.1 S / 31.2 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES UN SUD ET TRENTE UN DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/01/2021 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 29.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 25/01/2021 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 28.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 25/01/2021 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 25.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT




2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
ELOISE CONTINUE A S'ENFONCER DANS LES TERRES GAGNANT LA ZONE
FRONTALIERE ENTRE LE MOZAMBIQUE, L'AFRIQUE DU SUD ET LE ZIMBABWE. LA
CONVECTION PROFONDE SE CONCENTRE PLUTOT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD
JUSQU'A UNE DISTANCE DE 300KM DU CENTRE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT AU NIVEAU DE LA TRAJECTOIRE : LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
CONTINUER SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN SE DEPLACANT SUR LA
BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LOCALISEE AU SUD-EST DE
MADAGASCAR. PAR LA SUITE, ELOISE VA SE DISSIPER SUR LES HAUTS
PLATEAUX DU NORD DE L'AFRIQUE DU SUD A LA FRONTIERE DU BOTSWANA.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, ELOISE VA CONTINUER DE S'AFFAIBLIR
GRADUELLEMENT SUR TERRE. TOUTEFOIS, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE DEVRAIT
ENCORE SE MAINTENIR DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-EST DU SYSTEME BIEN QUE
FAIBLISSANT EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE. CETTE ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE POURRAIT REPARTIR EN COURS DE NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI
DANS LE SECTEUR SUD DU SYSTEME SOUS L'EFFET D'UN FRONT FROID QUI
REMONTE PAR LE SUD.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS, LES RESTES D'ELOISE AFFECTERONT PRINCIPALEMENT
LA ZONE FRONTALIERE MOZAMBIQUE-ZIMBABWE-AFRIQUE DU SUD, INCLUANT
AUSSI LE SWAZILAND, JUSQU'A MARDI. LE RISQUE PRINCIPAL EST UN RISQUE
DE FORTES PLUIES. CE RISQUE CONCERNE D'UNE PART, LE BOTSWANA EN LIEN
DIRECT AVEC LES RESTES D'ELOISE JUSQU'A MARDI ET D'AUTRE PART LA ZONE
NORD-EST DE L'AFRIQUE DU SUD INCLUANT LE SWAZILAND AINSI QUE LE SUD
DU MOZAMBIQUE. EN EFFET, SOUS L'EFFET DE LA REMONTEE D'UN FRONT
FROID, DES FORTES PLUIES DANS LE SECTEUR SUD DE LA DEPRESSION SUR
TERRE ELOISE CONCERNERONT CES ZONES PLUS AU SUD DE LA TRAJECTOIRE.

LES HABITANTS DES PAYS CONCERNES PAR LE RISQUE DE FORTES PLUIES CES
PROCHAINS JOURS SONT INVITES A SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES
LOCALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 240002
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/7/20202021
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/24 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 31.2 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/24 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 29.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2021/01/25 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 28.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2021/01/25 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 25.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
ELOISE CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND INTO THE BORDER ZONE BETWEEN
MOZAMBIQUE, SOUTH AFRICA, AND ZIMBABWE. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE EXTENDING UP TO A DISTANCE OF
300KM FROM THE CENTER.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK: THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON A
WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK MOVING ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. THEREAFTER, ELOISE
WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGHLANDS OF SOUTH AFRICA BORDERING
BOTSWANA.

ON THIS TRACK, ELOISE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON LAND.
HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, ALBEIT WEAKENING OVER THE COURSE
OF SUNDAY. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD RESUME DURING THE NIGHT
OF SUNDAY TO MONDAY IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM UNDER THE
EFFECT OF A COLD FRONT MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THE REMNANTS OF ELOISE WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE
MOZAMBIQUE-ZIMBABWE-SOUTH AFRICA BORDER AREA, INCLUDING ALSO
SWAZILAND, UNTIL TUESDAY. THE MAIN RISK IS A RISK OF HEAVY RAINS.
THIS RISK CONCERNS ON THE ONE HAND BOTSWANA IN DIRECT LINK WITH THE
REMAINS OF ELOISE UNTIL TUESDAY AND ON THE OTHER HAND THE
NORTH-EASTERN ZONE OF SOUTH AFRICA INCLUDING SWAZILAND AND SOUTHERN
MOZAMBIQUE. INDEED, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE RISE OF A COLD FRONT,
HEAVY RAINS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE DEPRESSION ON TERRE ELOISE
WILL CONCERN THESE AREAS FURTHER SOUTH OF THE TRACK.

THE INHABITANTS OF THE COUNTRIES CONCERNED BY THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINS
IN THE COMING DAYS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 231833
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/7/20202021
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 32.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/24 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 30.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2021/01/24 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 29.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2021/01/25 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 27.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, ELOISE CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND IN MOZAMBIQUE.
THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED QUITE FAR FROM THE CENTER AND CONCERNS
RATHER THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LAST OBSERVATIONS FROM
INLAND STATIONS CLOSE TO THE CENTER (MASSANGENA) PLEAD FOR WINDS OF
THE ORDER OF 25KT, ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION IS DOUBTFUL.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK: THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON A
WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK MOVING ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. THEREAFTER, ELOISE
WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGHLANDS OF SOUTH AFRICA BORDERING
BOTSWANA.

ON THIS TRACK, ELOISE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON LAND.
HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, ALBEIT WEAKENING OVER THE COURSE
OF SUNDAY. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD RESUME DURING THE NIGHT
OF SUNDAY TO MONDAY IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM UNDER THE
EFFECT OF A COLD FRONT MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THE REMNANTS OF ELOISE WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE
MOZAMBIQUE-ZIMBABWE-SOUTH AFRICA BORDER AREA, INCLUDING ALSO
SWAZILAND, UNTIL TUESDAY. THE MAIN RISK IS A RISK OF HEAVY RAINS.
THIS RISK CONCERNS ON THE ONE HAND BOTSWANA IN DIRECT LINK WITH THE
REMAINS OF ELOISE UNTIL TUESDAY AND ON THE OTHER HAND THE
NORTH-EASTERN ZONE OF SOUTH AFRICA INCLUDING SWAZILAND AND SOUTHERN
MOZAMBIQUE. INDEED, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE RISE OF A COLD FRONT,
HEAVY RAINS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE DEPRESSION ON TERRE ELOISE
WILL CONCERN THESE AREAS FURTHER SOUTH OF THE TRACK.

THE INHABITANTS OF THE COUNTRIES CONCERNED BY THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINS
IN THE COMING DAYS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 231805
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/01/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 033/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 23/01/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELOISE) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 32.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

OVERLAND CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25KT
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/24 AT 06 UTC:
22.1 S / 30.7 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2021/01/24 AT 18 UTC:
22.9 S / 29.0 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST BULLETIN ABOUT THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 231242
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/7/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 23/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.9 S / 33.2 E
(VINGT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET TRENTE TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 295 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/01/2021 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 31.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 24/01/2021 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 30.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 25/01/2021 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 28.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 25/01/2021 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 26.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 26/01/2021 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 24.5 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 26/01/2021 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 22.6 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, ELOISE A CONTINUE A S'ENFONCER DANS
LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE AVEC UNE CONVECTION PROFONDE QUI RESTE BIEN
ORGANISEE AUTOUR DU CENTRE MAIS LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX ONT TENDANCE A SE
RECHAUFFER.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONTINUER SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN
SE DEPLACANT SUR LA BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
LOCALISEE AU SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LES RESTES
D'ELOISE DEVRAIENT DERIVER EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST, SOUS L'ACTION
D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE ARRIVANT PAR L'OUEST.

ELOISE VA CONTINUER A GRADUELLEMENT S'AFFAIBLIR SUR TERRE. L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE DEVRAIT ENCORE TENIR A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE JUSQU'A
DIMANCHE MATIN AVANT DE DEVENIR PLUS SPORADIQUE EN JOURNEE DE
DIMANCHE.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS, LES RESTES D'ELOISE AFFECTERONT ESSENTIELLEMENT
PAR UN RISQUE DE FORTES PLUIES PLUSIEURS PAYS D'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE AU
COURS DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS : DE FORTES PLUIES SONT ATTENDUES LE LONG
DE LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME, AVEC DES CUMULS DE L'ORDRE DE 100 MM EN
24H DIMANCHE SUR LE SUD DU ZIMBABWE ET LE NORD-EST DE L'AFRIQUE DU
SUD. ELLES SE PROPAGENT LUNDI VERS LE SUD VERS LE SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE
ET LE SWAZILAND (RENFORCEMENT DE L'ACTIVITE A L'AVANT D'UN FRONT
FROID EN APPROCHE PAR LE SUD) ET GAGNENT EGALEMENT L'EST DU BOTSWANA
LUNDI ET MARDI (PLUIES DIRECTEMENT LIEES AUX RESTES D'ELOISE).

LES HABITANTS DES PAYS CONCERNES PAR LE RISQUE DE FORTES PLUIES CES
PROCHAINS JOURS SONT INVITES A SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES
LOCALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 231242
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/7/20202021
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 33.2 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 295 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/24 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 31.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2021/01/24 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 30.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2021/01/25 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 28.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2021/01/25 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 26.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2021/01/26 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 24.5 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2021/01/26 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 22.6 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ELOISE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS
MOZAMBIQUE WITH DEEP CONVECTION THAT REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AROUND
THE CENTER BUT THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED UP.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK MOVING
ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST
OF MADAGASCAR. FROM MONDAY, THE REMNANTS OF ELOISE SHOULD DRIFT
WESTWARD, UNDER THE ACTION OF A NEW RIDGE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.

ELOISE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER LAND. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE CENTER UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE BECOMING MORE SPORADIC ON SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THE REMNANTS OF ELOISE WILL AFFECT SEVERAL
SOUTHERN AFRICAN COUNTRIES MAINLY BY A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL DURING
THE NEXT 3 DAYS: HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TRAJECTORY OF THE
SYSTEM, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF ABOUT 100 MM IN 24 HOURS ON SUNDAY OVER
SOUTHERN ZIMBABWE AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AFRICA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO SPREAD SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY TOWARDS SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE AND
SWAZILAND (AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH) AND WILL
ALSO REACH EASTERN BOTSWANA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY (DIRECTLY RELATED
TO ELOISE REMNANTS).

THE INHABITANTS OF THE COUNTRIES AFFECTED BY THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINS
IN THE COMING DAYS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 231214
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/01/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 032/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 23/01/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELOISE) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 33.2 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 TO 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/24 AT 00 UTC:
21.8 S / 31.5 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2021/01/24 AT 12 UTC:
22.5 S / 30.0 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 230645
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/7/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 23/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.6 S / 33.9 E
(VINGT DEGRES SIX SUD ET TRENTE TROIS DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SO: 95 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SO: 55 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/01/2021 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 32.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SO: 30 NO: 55

24H: 24/01/2021 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 30.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 24/01/2021 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 28.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 25/01/2021 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 26.9 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 25/01/2021 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 24.8 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 26/01/2021 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 23.5 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
L'OEIL DU CYCLONE TROPICAL ELOISE A TOUCHE TERRE VERS 01Z SUR LA COTE
DU MOZAMBIQUE A ENVIRON 30 KM AU SUD DE BEIRA ET DE L'EMBOUCHURE DU
FLEUVE PUNGWE, DANS LA BAIE DE SOFALA, AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMES A 80 KT
ET UNE PRESSION CENTRALE PROCHE DE 967 HPA. LA STATION SYNOPTIQUE DE
BEIRA, PROCHE DU MUR DE L'OEIL NORD, A MESURE UNE RAFALE A 130 KM/H
DE COMPOSANTE NORD-EST A 01Z.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONTINUER SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN
SE DEPLACANT SUR LA BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
LOCALISEE AU SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LES RESTES
D'ELOISE DEVRAIENT DERIVER EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST, SOUS L'ACTION
D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE ARRIVANT PAR L'OUEST.

ELOISE VA MAINTENANT GRADUELLEMENT S'AFFAIBLIR SUR TERRE. L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE DEVRAIT ENCORE TENIR ENCORE PLUSIEURS HEURES A PROXIMITE
DU CENTRE AVANT DE S'EFFONDRER EN COURS D'APRES-MIDI OU EN SOIREE AU
PROFIT D'UNE ACTIVITE PLUVIO-ORAGEUSE PLUS SPORADIQUE PLUTOT LOIN DU
CENTRE RESIDUEL.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS, ELOISE EST EN TRAIN D'IMPACTER SIGNIFICATIVEMENT
LE SUD DE LA REGION DE BEIRA ET VA AFFECTER ESSENTIELLEMENT PAR UN
RISQUE DE FORTES PLUIES PLUSIEURS PAYS D'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE AU COURS
DES 3 PROCHAINS JOURS :
- DES VENTS A 100/120 KM/H EN RAFALES TOUCHENT LES RA GIONS DANS LES
TERRES SITUA ES A PROXIMITA SUD DE LA TRAJECTOIRE. DIMANCHE, DE
FORTES RAFALES DE VENTS POUVANT ATTEINDRE 90-100 KM/H POURRONT
ACCOMPAGNER LES A PISODES PLUVIO-ORAGEUX SE DA VELOPPANT AU SUD DE LA
CIRCULATION DA PRESSIONNAIRE, INTERESSANT DONC PRINCIPALEMENT LE NORD
DE L'AFRIQUE DU SUD.
- AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H, DES CUMULS DE PLUIES ADDITIONNELS DE
L'ORDRE DE 50 A 100 MM SONT ATTENDUS AU NIVEAU DE LA ZONE D'IMPACTS.
LES FORTES PLUIES ASSOCIA ES A ELOISE VONT AUSSI GAGNER L'INTA RIEUR
DES TERRES: DES CUMULS DE 100 A LOCALEMENT 150 MM EN 24H SONT
POSSIBLES LE LONG DE LA TRAJECTOIRE AINSI QUE SUR LE RELIEF DE LA
ZONE FRONTALIA RE ENTRE LE MOZAMBIQUE ET LE ZIMBABWE. DIMANCHE, LES
PLUIES D'ELOISE CONCERNENT LE SUD DU ZIMBABWE, LE NORD DE L'AFRIQUE
DU SUD ET L'EST DU BOTSWANA EN DONNANT DES CUMULS DE L'ORDRE DE 50 A
100 MM/24H LOCALEMENT 150 MM SUR LE RELIEF. PARALLA LEMENT, DES
PLUIES DE MA ME AMPLEUR SE PROPAGENT AUSSI VERS LE SUD SUR LE SUD DU
MOZAMBIQUE ET LE SWAZILAND.

LES HABITANTS DU MOZAMBIQUE ET DES PAYS CONCERNES PAR LE RISQUE DE
FORTES PLUIES LES JOURS SUIVANTS SONT INVITES A SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES
DES AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 230645
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/7/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/23 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 33.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SW: 95 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 55 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/23 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 32.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 30 NW: 55

24H: 2021/01/24 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 30.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2021/01/24 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 28.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2021/01/25 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 26.9 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2021/01/25 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 24.8 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2021/01/26 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 23.5 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE EYE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ELOISE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 01Z ON THE
COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE ABOUT 30 KM SOUTH OF BEIRA AND OF THE PUNGWE
RIVER ESTUARY, IN THE BAY OF SOFALA, WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80 KT
AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE CLOSE TO 967 HPA. THE SYNOPTIC STATION OF
BEIRA, CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN EYEWALL, MEASURED A NORTHEASTERLY GUST
OF 130 KM/H AT 01Z.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK MOVING
ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST
OF MADAGASCAR. FROM MONDAY, THE REMNANTS OF ELOISE SHOULD DRIFT
WESTWARD, UNDER THE ACTION OF A NEW RIDGE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.

ELOISE WILL NOW GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER LAND. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS NEAR THE CENTER BEFORE
COLLAPSING IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING IN FAVOR OF MORE SPORADIC
RAINSTORM ACTIVITY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE RESIDUAL CENTER.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, ELOISE IS ABOUT TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE BEIRA REGION AND WILL AFFECT MAINLY BY A RISK OF
HEAVY RAINS SEVERAL SOUTHERN AFRICAN COUNTRIES DURING THE NEXT 3
DAYS:
- WINDS GUSTING TO 100/120 KM/H WILL REACH THE REGIONS IN THE LANDS
LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTH OF THE TRACK. ON SUNDAY, STRONG WIND GUSTS OF
UP TO 90-100 KM/H MAY ACCOMPANY THE RAINSTORM EPISODES DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION, THUS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN
SOUTH AFRICA.
- DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
ORDER OF 50 TO 100 MM IS EXPECTED AT THE LEVEL OF THE IMPACT ZONE.
THE HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ELOISE WILL ALSO REACH THE INTERIOR
OF THE COUNTRY: RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 150 MM IN 24 HOURS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK AS WELL AS ON THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS NEAR THE
BORDER ZONE BETWEEN MOZAMBIQUE AND ZIMBABWE. ON SUNDAY, THE ELOISE
RAINS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ZIMBABWE, NORTHERN SOUTH AFRICA AND
EASTERN BOTSWANA, WITH CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OF AROUND 50 TO 100 MM/24H
LOCALLY 150 MM. MEANWHILE, RAINS OF THE SAME MAGNITUDE WILL ALSO
SPREAD SOUTHWARDS OVER SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE AND SWAZILAND.

THE INHABITANTS OF MOZAMBIQUE AND OF THE COUNTRIES CONCERNED BY THE
RISK OF HEAVY RAINS IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 230626
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/01/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 23/01/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 33.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/23 AT 18 UTC:
21.3 S / 32.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/24 AT 06 UTC:
22.4 S / 30.9 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 230047
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/7/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/23 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 35.0 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 967 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SW: 165 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/23 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 33.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 75 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2021/01/24 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 31.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2021/01/24 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 30.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2021/01/25 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 28.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2021/01/25 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 27.0 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2021/01/26 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 25.1 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

ELOISE HAS INTENSIFIED IN THE FINAL APPROACH TO LAND WITH AN EYE
CONFIGURATION THAT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED SINCE 18Z. THE AVERAGE
DT OVER 3H HAS RISEN TO 5.0 AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH AN ESTIMATE OF 80 KT. THE BEIRA STATION REPORTED A
MINIMUM PRESSURE AT 974 HPA AT 23Z AND STORM CONDITIONS AT 00Z.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK MOVING
ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST
OF MADAGASCAR. FROM MONDAY, THE REMNANTS OF ELOISE SHOULD DRIFT
WESTWARD, UNDER THE ACTION OF A NEW RIDGE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.

ELOISE WILL NOW GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON LAND. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS NEAR THE CENTER BEFORE
COLLAPSING IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING IN FAVOR OF MORE SPORADIC
RAINSTORM ACTIVITY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE RESIDUAL CENTER.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, ELOISE IS ABOUT TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE BEIRA REGION AND WILL AFFECT MAINLY BY A RISK OF
HEAVY RAINS SEVERAL SOUTHERN AFRICAN COUNTRIES DURING THE NEXT 3
DAYS:
- VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS THAT CAN EXCEED 200 KM/H IN GUSTS ARE
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGIONS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL AND WILL DO SO IN THE COMING
HOURS. DURING THE DAY, WINDS GUSTING TO 100/120 KM/H WILL REACH THE
REGIONS IN THE LANDS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTH OF THE TRACK. ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, STRONG WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 90-100 KM/H MAY ACCOMPANY THE
RAINSTORM EPISODES DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION,
THUS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN SOUTH AFRICA.
- DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
ORDER OF 100 TO 150 MM IS EXPECTED AT THE LEVEL OF THE IMPACT ZONE.
THE HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ELOISE WILL ALSO REACH THE INTERIOR
OF THE COUNTRY: RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 150 MM IN 24 HOURS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK AS WELL AS ON THE RELIEF OF THE BORDER ZONE
BETWEEN MOZAMBIQUE AND ZIMBABWE. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE ELOISE
RAINS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ZIMBABWE, NORTHERN SOUTH AFRICA AND
EASTERN BOTSWANA, WITH CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OF AROUND 50 MM/24H
LOCALLY 100 MM. MEANWHILE, RAINS OF THE SAME MAGNITUDE WILL ALSO
SPREAD SOUTHWARDS OVER SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE AND SWAZILAND.
- AS THE WINDS SHIFT, THE RISK OF STORM SURGE DECREASES FOR BEIRA. ON
THE OTHER HAND IN THE BAY OF SOFALA THIS STORM SURGE COULD BE 3 TO 4M
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE INHABITANTS OF MOZAMBIQUE AND OF THE COUNTRIES CONCERNED BY THE
RISK OF HEAVY RAINS IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 230026
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/01/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 23/01/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (ELOISE) 967 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 35.0 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200-250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/23 AT 12 UTC:
20.8 S / 33.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/24 AT 00 UTC:
21.6 S / 31.7 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
THE SYSTEM IS MAKING LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF BEIRA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 221853
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 29/7/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 22/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.5 S / 36.1 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET TRENTE SIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 974 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SO: 295 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 70 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/01/2021 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 34.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SO: 155 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 23/01/2021 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 32.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 24/01/2021 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 31.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 24/01/2021 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 29.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 25/01/2021 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 28.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 25/01/2021 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 26.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/01/2021 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 23.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5

LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL D'ELOISE A FLUCTUE AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6
HEURES MAIS GLOBALEMENT DEPUIS 15Z, L'ALLURE GENERALE EST EN
AMELIORATION. JUSTE AVANT 18Z, L'OEIL EST DEVENU PLUS CHAUD ET MIEUX
DEFINI. LA PASS SSMIS F17 DE 1637Z REVELAIT ALORS UN OEIL PEINANT A
SE CONSOLIDER. EN ACCORD AVEC LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK SUBJECTIVES,
L'INTENSITE EST AUGMENTE A 70 KT.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONTINUER SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN
SE DEPLACANT SUR LA BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
LOCALISEE AU SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR. ELOISE DEVRAIT ATTERRIR SUR LE
MOZAMBIQUE EN COURS DE NUIT PROCHAINE, VOIRE DEMAIN MATIN. A PARTIR
DE LUNDI, LES RESTES D'ELOISE DEVRAIENT DERIVER EN DIRECTION DE
L'OUEST, SOUS L'ACTION D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE ARRIVANT PAR L'OUEST.
LE TIMING ET LA LOCALISATION DE L'ATTERRISSAGE POURRAIENT ETRE PLUS
RAPIDE QU'ENVISAGA , AU REGARD DE LA CONFIGURATION DE LA COTE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION FRANCHE VOIRE RAPIDE (EAUX CHAUDES,
ENVIRONNEMENT HUMIDE, PAS DE CISAILLEMENT ET EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE
COTE NORD). NEANMOINS, LA PROXIMITE AVEC LES TERRES LIMITE LE
POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION AVEC UN RAYON DE VENT MAX QUI POURRAIT
TOUCHER LA COTE DANS SA PARTIE NORD AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS, ELOISE REPRESENTE UNE MENACE SIGNIFICATIVE POUR
LA ZONE AUTOUR DE BEIRA, ENTRE QUELIMANE AU NORD ET LE FLEUVE SAVE AU
SUD :
- DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES, 150 A 250 MM DE PRA CIPITATIONS
SONT PRA VUES ENTRE L'EMBOUCHURE DU ZAMBEZE ET VILANCULOS, ET JUSQU'A
300 MM LOCALEMENT DANS LA RA GION DE BEIRA. AU COURS DES PROCHAINS
JOURS, LES FORTES PLUIES (CUMULS A PLUS DE 100 MM/24H) VONT GAGNER A
LA FOIS VERS L'OUEST (SUD ZIMBABWE, NORD AFRIQUE DU SUD ET EST
BOTSWANA) MAIS AUSSI VERS LE SUD (REGION DE MAPUTO DES CE WEEK-END)
AINSI QUE LE SWAZILAND ET LE NORD-EST DE L'AFRIQUE DU SUD.
- LES RAFALES DEPASSERONT LES 100KM/H SUR L'ENSEMBLE DE CETTE ZONE
LITTORALE, ET ENTRE 150 ET 200 KM/H AU PLUS PRA S DU POINT D'IMPACT.
- UNE SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 1M A 1M50 EN MOYENNE EST ATTENDUE AU
NORD DE BEIRA ET ENTRE 1M50 ET 2M AU SUD DE BEIRA. CETTE SURCOTE
POURRAIT DEPASSER LES 3M SUIVANT LE SCENARIO LE PLUS DEFAVORABLE
(ATTERRISSAGE SUR OU AU NORD DE BEIRA), PRES DU FLEUVE PUNGWE. BIEN
QUE DE COEFFICIENT FAIBLE, LA MAREE HAUTE A 00Z POURRA A TRE UN
FACTEUR AGGRAVANT.

LES HABITANTS DU MOZAMBIQUE ET DES PAYS CONCERNES PAR LE RISQUE DE
FORTES PLUIES LES JOURS SUIVANTS SONT INVITES A SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES
DES AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 221853
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/7/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 36.1 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SW: 295 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 70 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/23 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 34.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/01/23 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 32.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2021/01/24 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 31.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2021/01/24 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 29.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2021/01/25 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 28.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2021/01/25 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 26.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/26 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 23.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

THE ELOISE'S EYE CONFIGURATION HAS FLUCTUATED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS
BUT OVERALL SINCE 15Z, THE OVERALL LOOK IS IMPROVING. JUST BEFORE
18Z, THE EYE HAS BECOME WARMER AND BETTER DEFINED. THE SSMIS F17 PASS
OF 1637Z REVEALED AN EYE STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE. IN ACCORDANCE
WITH DVORAK SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES, THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70
KT.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
MOVING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. ELOISE IS EXPECTED TO LAND IN MOZAMBIQUE
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING. FROM MONDAY, THE REMNANTS OF ELOISE ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD, DRIVEN BY A NEW RIDGE ARRIVING FROM THE
WEST. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LANDFALL COULD CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN THE CONFIGURATION OF THE COASTLINE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT OR EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION (WARM WATERS, HUMID
ENVIRONMENT, NO SHEAR AND EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE). NEVERTHELESS,
THE PROXIMITY TO THE LAND IS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS
THAT COULD MOVE OVERLAND BEFORE LANDFALL.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, ELOISE REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE
AREA NEAR BEIRA, BETWEEN QUELIMANE IN THE NORTH AND THE SAVE RIVER IN
THE SOUTH:
- IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, 150 TO 250 MM OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
THE MOUTH OF THE ZAMBEZE AND VILANCULOS, AND UP TO 300 MM LOCALLY IN
THE REGION OF BEIRA. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, HEAVY RAINS (CUMULATIVE
RAINFALL OF MORE THAN 100 MM/24H) WILL MOVE BOTH WESTWARD (SOUTH
ZIMBABWE, NORTH SOUTH AFRICA AND EAST BOTSWANA) BUT ALSO SOUTHWARD
(MAPUTO REGION THIS WEEKEND) AS WELL AS SWAZILAND AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
AFRICA.
- GUSTS WILL EXCEED 100KM/H THROUGHOUT THIS COASTAL ZONE, AND BETWEEN
150 AND 200 KM/H AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE TO THE POINT OF IMPACT.
- AN ADDITIONAL COST OF AROUND 1M TO 1M50 ON AVERAGE IS EXPECTED
NORTH OF BEIRA AND BETWEEN 1M50 AND 2M SOUTH OF BEIRA. THIS OVERCOTE
COULD EXCEED 3M ACCORDING TO THE MOST UNFAVORABLE SCENARIO (LANDING
ON OR NORTH OF BEIRA), NEAR THE PUNGWE RIVER. ALTHOUGH OF LOW
COEFFICIENT, THE HIGH WATER LEVEL AT 00Z COULD BE AN AGGRAVATING
FACTOR.

THE INHABITANTS OF MOZAMBIQUE AND COUNTRIES CONCERNED BY THE RISK OF
HEAVY RAINS IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 221819
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/01/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 029/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 22/01/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (ELOISE) 974 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 36.1 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200-250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 145 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/23 AT 06 UTC:
20.3 S / 34.2 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/23 AT 18 UTC:
21.1 S / 32.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 221241
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/7/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 22/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.1 S / 37.0 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES UN SUD ET TRENTE SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SO: 315 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/01/2021 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 35.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 360 SO: 165 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 23/01/2021 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 33.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 75

36H: 24/01/2021 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 31.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 24/01/2021 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 30.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 25/01/2021 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 29.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 25/01/2021 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 28.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/01/2021 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 24.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGUATION NUAGEUSE A EVOLUEE
AVEC L'EMERGENCE D'UN UN OEIL ASSEZ LARGE ET QUI RESTE POUR LE MOMENT
ASSEZ MAL DEFINI. L'INTENSITA EST BASEE SUR L'ESTIMATION DVORAK DU
CMRS QUI EST EN ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES
DISPONIBLES. AINSI ELOISE A ATTEINT LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONTINUER SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN
TRAVERSANT LE CANAL, SE DEPLACANT SUR LA BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LOCALISEE AU SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR. ELOISE
DEVRAIT ATTERRIR SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE EN COURS DE NUIT PROCHAINE, VOIRE
DEMAIN MATIN. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LES RESTES D'ELOISE DEVRAIENT
DERIVER EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST, SOUS L'ACTION D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE
ARRIVANT PAR L'OUEST.
LE TIMING ET LA LOCALISATION DE L'ATTERRISSAGE POURRAIENT ETRE PLUS
RAPIDE QU'ENVISAGA , AU REGARD DE LA CONFIGURATION DE LA COTE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION FRANCHE VOIRE RAPIDE (EAUX CHAUDES,
ENVIRONNEMENT HUMIDE, PAS DE CISAILLEMENT ET EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE
COTE NORD). NEANMOINS, LA PROXIMITE AVEC LES TERRES RISQUE DE LIMITER
LE POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION. LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE
N'EST PAS EXCLU MAIS DEVIENT PEU PROBABLE.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS, ELOISE REPRESENTE UNE MENACE SIGNIFICATIVE POUR
LA ZONE AUTOUR DE BEIRA, ENTRE QUELIMANE AU NORD ET LE FLEUVE SAVE AU
SUD :
- DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES, 150 A 250 MM DE PRA CIPITATIONS
SONT PRA VUES ENTRE QUELIMANE ET INHAMBANE, ET JUSQU'A PLUS DE 300 MM
DANS LA RA GION DE BEIRA. CE SOIR ET DEMAIN, CE RISQUE DEVRAIT
EGALEMENT CONCERNER L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES.
- LES RAFALES DEPASSERONT LES 100KM/H SUR L'ENSEMBLE DE CETTE ZONE
LITTORALE, ET ENTRE 150 ET 200 KM/H AU PLUS PRA S DU POINT D'IMPACT.
- UNE SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 1M A 1M50 EN MOYENNE EST ATTENDUE AU
NORD DE BEIRA ET ENTRE 1M50 ET 2M AU SUD DE BEIRA. CETTE SURCOTE
POURRAIT DEPASSER LES 3M SUIVANT LE SCENARIO LE PLUS DEFAVORABLE
(ATTERRISSAGE SUR OU AU NORD DE BEIRA), PRES DU FLEUVE PUNGWE. BIEN
QUE DE COEFFICIENT FAIBLE, LA MAREE HAUTE A 00Z POURRA A TRE UN
FACTEUR AGGRAVANT.

LES HABITANTS DU MOZAMBIQUE SONT INVITES A SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES
AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 221241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/7/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 37.0 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/23 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 35.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 360 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2021/01/23 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 33.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 75

36H: 2021/01/24 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 31.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2021/01/24 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 30.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2021/01/25 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 29.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2021/01/25 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 28.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/26 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 24.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS EVOLVED WITH THE
EMERGENCE A BROAD EYE, WICH REMAINS RATHER RAGGED FOR NOW. CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON RSMC DVORAK ESTIMATE, IN AGREEMENT WITH
AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE ANS SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THUS, ELOISE REACHED THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
ACROSS THE CHANNEL, MOVING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. ELOISE IS EXPECTED
TO LAND IN MOZAMBIQUE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING. FROM MONDAY, THE
REMNANTS OF ELOISE ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD, DRIVEN BY A NEW
RIDGE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LANDFALL
COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN THE CONFIGURATION OF THE COASTLINE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT OR EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION (WARM WATERS, HUMID
ENVIRONMENT, NO SHEAR AND EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE). NEVERTHELESS,
THE PROXIMITY TO THE LAND MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT
EXCLUDED BUT BECOMES UNLIKELY.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, ELOISE REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE
AREA NEAR BEIRA, BETWEEN QUELIMANE IN THE NORTH AND THE SAVE RIVER IN
THE SOUTH:
- IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, 150 TO 250 MM OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
QUELIMANE AND INHAMBANE, AND UP TO MORE THAN 300 MM IN THE REGION OF
BEIRA. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, THIS RISK SHOULD ALSO CONCERN THE INLAND
AREAS.
- GUSTS WILL EXCEED 100 KM/H OVER THE ENTIRE COASTLINE, AND BETWEEN
150 AND 200 KM/H CLOSE TO THE IMPACT POINT.
- A STORM SURGE OF ABOUT 1M TO 1M50 ON AVERAGE IS EXPECTED NORTH OF
BEIRA AND BETWEEN 1M50 AND 2M SOUTH OF BEIRA. THIS STORM SURGE COULD
EXCEED 3M ACCORDING TO THE MOST UNFAVORABLE SCENARIO (LANDFALL ON OR
NORTH OF BEIRA), NEAR THE PUNGWE RIVER. ALTHOUGH OF LOW COEFFICIENT,
THE HIGH TIDE AT 00Z COULD BE AN AGGRAVATING FACTOR.

INHABITANTS OF MOZAMBIQUE ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF
THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 221229 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/01/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 22/01/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (ELOISE) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 37.0 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/23 AT 00 UTC:
20.0 S / 35.0 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/23 AT 12 UTC:
20.9 S / 33.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
CORRECTIVE ON WIND FORECAST EXTENSIONS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 220711
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/7/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 22/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.9 S / 38.2 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SO: 315 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/01/2021 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 380 SO: 230 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 23/01/2021 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 34.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SO: 75 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 23/01/2021 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 32.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 24/01/2021 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 31.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 24/01/2021 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 30.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 25/01/2021 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 28.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/01/2021 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 24.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

120H: 27/01/2021 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 22.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES
INITIALEMENT VISIBLE EN IMAGERIE VISIBLE ET INFRAROUGE, A ETE
RECOUVERT PAR LA CONVECTION. CELA CONDUIT A UNE CONFIGURATION EN CDO
DU SYSTEME, ET DONC A UNE AMELIORATION DE L'ORGANISATION NUAGEUSE.
AU VU DES DERNIA RES IMAGES MICRO-ONDE (SSMIS F17 DE 0403Z), L'ANNEAU
DE CONVECTION INTERNE D'ELOISE TEND A SE FERMER EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE, CEPENDANT IL PRA SENTE ENCORE UNE FAIBLESSE SUR LE COTE
OUEST. L'INTENSITA EST BASEE SUR L'ESTIMATION DVORAK DU CMRS QUI EST
LEGEREMENT PLUS HAUTE QUE LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES
DISPONIBLES.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONTINUER SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN
TRAVERSANT LE CANAL, SE DEPLACANT SUR LA BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LOCALISEE AU SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR. ELOISE
DEVRAIT ATTERRIR SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE CE SOIR OU EN COURS DE NUIT
PROCHAINE.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LES RESTES D'ELOISE DEVRAIENT DERIVER EN DIRECTION
DE L'OUEST, SOUS L'ACTION D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE ARRIVANT PAR
L'OUEST.
LE TIMING ET LA LOCALISATION DE L'ATTERRISSAGE POURRAIENT NETTEMENT
CHANGER AU VU DE LA CONFIGURATION DE LA COTE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION FRANCHE VOIRE RAPIDE (EAUX CHAUDES,
ENVIRONNEMENT HUMIDE, PAS DE CISAILLEMENT ET EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE
COTE NORD). NEANMOINS, LA PROXIMITE AVEC LES TERRES RISQUE DE LIMITER
LE POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION. LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE
N'EST PAS EXCLU MAIS DEVIENT PEU PROBABLE.

ELOISE REPRESENTE UNE MENACE SIGNIFICATIVE POUR LA ZONE AUTOUR DE
BEIRA, ENTRE QUELIMANE AU NORD ET LE FLEUVE SAVE AU SUD.
LES EPISODES DE FORTES PLUIES VONT CONTINUER DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES NOTAMMENT SUR CETTE ZONE LITTORALE. CE SOIR ET DEMAIN, CE
RISQUE DEVRAIT EGALEMENT CONCERNER L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES. LES
RAFALES DEPASSERONT LES 100KM/H SUR L'ENSEMBLE DE CETTE ZONE
LITTORALE, ET ENTRE 150 ET 200 KM/H AU PLUS PRA S DU POINT D'IMPACT.
UNE SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 1M50 EN MOYENNE EST ATTENDUE, POUVANT
ATTEINDRE LOCALEMENT 2 A 3M50 NOTAMMENT AU SUD DE BEIRA PRES DU
FLEUVE PUNGWE. BIEN QUE DE COEFFICIENT FAIBLE, LA MAREE HAUTE A 00Z
POURRA A TRE UN FACTEUR AGGRAVANT.

LES HABITANTS DU MOZAMBIQUE SONT INVITES A SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES
AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 220711
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/7/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/22 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 38.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/22 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 380 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2021/01/23 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 34.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SW: 150 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2021/01/23 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 32.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2021/01/24 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 31.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2021/01/24 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 30.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2021/01/25 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 28.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/26 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 24.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2021/01/27 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 22.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER INITIALLY
VISIBLE IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGING, HAS BEEN COVERED BY
CONVECTION. THIS LEADS TO A CDO CONFIGURATION OF THE SYSTEM, AND THUS
TO AN IMPROVEMENT OF THE CLOUD ORGANIZATION.
ACCORDING TO THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGES (SSMIS F17 OF 0403Z), THE
INTERNAL CONVECTION RING OF ELOISE TENDS TO CLOSE IN MID-LEVELS,
HOWEVER IT STILL SHOWS A WEAKNESS ON THE WESTERN SIDE. THE INTENSITY
IS BASED ON THE RSMC DVORAK ESTIMATE WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
ACROSS THE CHANNEL, MOVING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. ELOISE IS EXPECTED
TO LAND IN MOZAMBIQUE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING. FROM MONDAY, THE
REMNANTS OF ELOISE ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD, DRIVEN BY A NEW
RIDGE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LANDFALL
COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN THE CONFIGURATION OF THE COASTLINE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT OR EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION (WARM WATERS, HUMID
ENVIRONMENT, NO SHEAR AND EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE). NEVERTHELESS,
THE PROXIMITY TO THE LAND MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT
EXCLUDED BUT BECOMES UNLIKELY.

ELOISE REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT AROUND BEIRA, BETWEEN
QUELIMANE IN THE NORTH AND THE RIVER SAVE IN THE SOUTH.
EPISODES OF HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
ESPECIALLY IN THIS COASTAL AREA. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, THIS RISK
SHOULD ALSO CONCERN THE INLANDS. THE GUSTS WILL EXCEED 100KM/H OVER
THIS ENTIRE COASTAL ZONE, AND BETWEEN 150 AND 200 KM/H IN THE
VICINITY OF THE POINT OF IMPACT.
A STORM SURGE OF ABOUT 1.5 M ON AVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON THE COAST,
WHICH MAY REACH 2 TO 3.5 M LOCALLY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BEIRA NEAR
THE PUNGWE RIVER. ALTHOUGH OF LOW COEFFICIENT, THE HIGH TIDE AT 00Z
COULD BE AN AGGRAVATING FACTOR.

INHABITANTS OF MOZAMBIQUE ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF
THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 220621
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/01/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 22/01/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 38.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/22 AT 18 UTC:
19.5 S / 36.2 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/23 AT 06 UTC:
20.2 S / 34.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 220055
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/7/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 22/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.2 S / 39.3 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET TRENTE NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SO: 315 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1017 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/01/2021 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SO: 285 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

24H: 23/01/2021 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SO: 185 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 23/01/2021 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 33.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 24/01/2021 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 32.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 24/01/2021 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 30.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 25/01/2021 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 29.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'ELOISE A
CONTINUE DE S'AMELIORER AVEC DES SIGNES DE COURBURE PLUS MARQUEES
DANS LES BANDES CONVECTIVES PROCHES DU CENTRE. LES DONNEES DE LA
PASSE ASCAT DE 1822Z SUGGERENT QUE DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE ETAIENT
DEJA PRESENTS A 18Z, DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. AU VU DE L'AMELIORATION
VISUELLE, DES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES PROCHE DE 3.5/4.0 ET DE CES
DONNEES SCATTEROMETRIQUES, L'INTENSITE EST REHAUSSEE A 55KT.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONTINUER SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN
TRAVERSANT LE CANAL, SE DEPLACANT SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LOCALISEE AU SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR. SUIVANT
CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, ELOISE DEVRAIT ARRIVER AU NIVEAU DES COTES
MOZAMBICAINES ENTRE VENDREDI SOIR ET SAMEDI MATIN. NEANMOINS, SUR LES
DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES, UNE TENDANCE UN PEU PLUS OUEST SEMBLE SE
DESSINER. SI CE CAP DEVAIT SE MAINTENIR, LE TIMING ET LA LOCALISATION
DE L'ATTERISAGE POURRAIT NETTEMENT CHANGER AU VU DE LA CONFIGURATION
DE LA COTE.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION FRANCHE VOIRE RAPIDE (EAUX CHAUDES,
ENVIRONNEMENT HUMIDE, PAS DE CISAILLEMENT ET EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE
COTE NORD). NEANMOINS, LA PROXIMITE DE PLUS EN PLUS MARQUEES AVEC LES
TERRES RISQUE DE LIMITER LE POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION. LE STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE N'EST PAS EXCLU MAIS DEVIENT PEU PROBABLE.

MALGRE TOUT ELOISE REPRESENTE UNE MENACE SIGNIFICATIVE POUR LA ZONE
AUTOUR DE BEIRA, ENTRE QUELIMANE AU NORD ET FLEUVE SAVE AU SUD. LES
EPISODES DE FORTES PLUIES VONT CONTINUER DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES
NOTAMMENT SUR CETTE ZONE LITTORALE. CE SOIR ET DEMAIN, CE RISQUE
DEVRAIT SE DECALER DANS LES TERRES. LES RAFALES DEPASSERONT LES
100KM/H SUR L'ENSEMBLE DE CETTE ZONE LITTORALE. UNE SURCOTE DE
L'ORDRE DE 1M/1M50 EN MOYENNE EST ATTENDUE, POUVANT ATTEINDRE
LOCALEMENT 2 A 4M NOTAMMENT AU SUD DE BEIRA PRES DU FLEUVE PUNGWE.
LES HABITANTS DU MOZAMBIQUE SONT INVITES A SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES
AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 220055
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/7/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/22 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 39.3 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1017 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/22 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 285 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2021/01/23 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2021/01/23 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 33.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2021/01/24 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 32.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2021/01/24 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 30.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2021/01/25 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 29.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, ELOISE CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVED WITH
INCREASING CURVATURE PATTERNS. 1822Z ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
STORM FORCE WINDS WERE ALREADY PRESENT IN THE CIRCULATION AT 18Z, IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GIVEN THE IMPROVEMENT, SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS CLOSE TYO 3.5/4.0 AND THESE DATA, INTENSITY WAS SET TO 55KT.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK ACROSS THE
CHANNEL, MOVING ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. FOLLOWING THIS TRACK, ELOISE SHOULD
REACH THE MOZAMBICAN COAST BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
MORNING. ON THE LATEST IMAGES A MORE WESTWARD TREND SEEMS VISIBLE. IF
THIS DIRECTION WAS TO BE MAINTAINED, THE TIMING AND THE LANDFALL MAY
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN THE COASTLINE SHAPE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE TO
A SWIFT OR EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION (WARM WATER, WET ENVIRONMENT,
NO SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE). HOWEVER THE
PROXIMITY WXITH THE COASTLINE IS LIKELY TO HINDER THE DEEPENING. THE
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS NOT EXCLUDED BUT APPEARS NOW
UNLIKELY.

ELOISE REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR THE AREA AROUND BEIRA,
BETWEEN QUELIMANE AT NORTH AND SAVE DELTA SOUTH. HEAVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY IN THESE AREAS. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, THE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND. WIND GUSTS SHOULD EXCEED 100KM/H ON ALL THIS
COASTLINE. A SURGE IS ALSO EXPECTED, REACHING 1M/1M50 AND UP TO 2/4M
LOCALLY ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BEIRA NEAR THE PUNGWE RIVER. THE
INHABITANTS OF MOZAMBIQUE ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF
THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 220030
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/01/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 22/01/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 39.3 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/22 AT 12 UTC:
19.0 S / 37.1 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/23 AT 00 UTC:
19.6 S / 35.3 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 211844
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/7/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 21/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.8 S / 40.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 102 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 185

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/01/2021 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 370 SO: 270 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 65

24H: 22/01/2021 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SO: 270 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 65

36H: 23/01/2021 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 34.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SO: 120 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 65

48H: 23/01/2021 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SO: 45 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 24/01/2021 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 31.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 24/01/2021 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 30.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE A PROXIMITE
DU CENTRE D'ELOISE A MONTRE DE PLUS EN PLUS DE SIGNES DE COURBURES.
LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (SSMIS 1356Z,..) SEMBLENT EGALEMENT
INDIQUER LA CONTRACTION DU COEUR INTERNE. LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS
MESURES A JUAN DE NOVA CONFIRMENT LA PRESENCE DE COUP DE VENT AU SEIN
DE LA CIRCULATION. LES DERNIERES ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES SONT PROCHES
DES 3.0/3.5. ENFIN LA PASSE SMAP DE 1518Z SEMBLENT INDIQUER DES VENTS
DE L'ORDRE DE 60KT. BIEN QUE CETTE DERNIERE DONNEE SEMBLE SURESTIMER
L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE D'ELOISE, LE SYSTEME EST PROBABLEMENT PROCHE DU
STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE. L'INTENSITE EST FIXEE A 45KT CE QUI EST PEUT
ETRE UN PEU CONSERVATEUR.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONTINUER SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN
TRAVERSANT LE CANAL, SE DEPLACANT SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LOCALISEE AU SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR. SUIVANT
CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, ELOISE DEVRAIT ARRIVER AU NIVEAU DES COTES
MOZAMBICAINES ENTRE VENDREDI SOIR ET SAMEDI MATIN. LA CONFIANCE DANS
LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE RESTE BONNE ET S'APPUIE SUR UN FAISCEAU
DE GUIDANCE PEU DISPERSE.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION FRANCHE VOIRE RAPIDE (EAUX CHAUDES,
ENVIRONNEMENT HUMIDE, PAS DE CISAILLEMENT ET EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE
COTE NORD). BIEN QUE LA PRESENTE PRESENTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE
N'ATTEIGNE PAS LE STADE DE CYCLONE INTENSE, CE DERNIER RESTE
ENVISAGEABLE.

LA MENACE D'UN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF POUR LA ZONE AUTOUR DE BEIRA,
ENTRE LES DELTAS DU FLEUVE ZAMBEZE AU NORD ET FLEUVE SAVE AU SUD, EST
DONC TOUJOURS PRESENTE. DEMAIN, DE FORTES PLUIES VONT COMMENCER A
IMPACTER CERTAINES REGIONS, UNE LARGE ZONE COTIERE ENTRE ANGOCHE ET
QUELIMANE A L'APPROCHE DU METEORE. LE VENT FORT DEVRAIT AUSSI ETRE
PLUS PRESENT DES DEMAIN SUR CES ZONES. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, LA ZONE
IMPACTEE SE DEPLACE PLUS VERS BEIRA ET PLUS PROFONDEMENT DANS LES
TERRES. LES HABITANTS DU MOZAMBIQUE SONT INVITES A SUIVRE LES
CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 211844
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/7/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/21 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 40.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 102 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 185

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/22 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 370 SW: 270 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2021/01/22 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 65

36H: 2021/01/23 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 34.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 65

48H: 2021/01/23 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 45 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2021/01/24 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 31.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2021/01/24 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 30.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE CENTER SHOW
INCREASING SIGNS OF CURVATURE. LAST MICRO WAVE DATA (1356Z SSMIS,..)
ALSO SHOW A MORE COMPACT INNER CORE. STRONGEST WINDS MEASURED AT JUAN
DE NOVA CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF GALE FORCE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION.
LAST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS ARE AROUND 3.0/3.5. FINALLY, 1518Z
SMAP SWATH SHOW MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 60KT. EVEN IT SEEMS TO
OVERESTIMATE, THE REAL INTENSITY IS PROBABLY CLOSE TO SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM THRESHOLD. INTENSITY IS SET FOR NOW AT 45KT WHICH MAY BE A BIT
CONSERVATIVE.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK ACROSS THE
CHANNEL, MOVING ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. FOLLOWING THIS TRACK, ELOISE SHOULD
REACH THE MOZAMBICAN COAST BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS GOOD AND IS BASED
ON A LOW SPREAD MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE TO
A SWIFT OR EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION (WARM WATER, WET ENVIRONMENT,
NO SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE). EVEN IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST DO NOT REACH INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE, SUCH
INTENSITIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FOR THE AREA AROUND BEIRA, BETWEEN
THE ZAMBEZI AND SAVE DELTAS IS STILL PRESENT. TOMORROW HEAVY RAINS
WILL START TO IMPACT SOME AREAS, A LARGE COASTAL ZONE BETWEEN ANGOCHE
AND QUELIMANE AS THE METEOR APPROACHES. THE STRONG WIND SHOULD ALSO
BE MORE PRESENT FROM TOMORROW IN THESE AREAS. FROM FRIDAY, THE WORST
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS BEIRA THEN INLAND WITH THE
ELOISE CENTER. THE INHABITANTS OF MOZAMBIQUE ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW
THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 211818
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/01/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 21/01/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 40.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/22 AT 06 UTC:
18.7 S / 38.2 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/22 AT 18 UTC:
19.3 S / 36.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 211303
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/7/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 21/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.1 S / 42.0 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 139 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SO: 185 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/01/2021 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SO: 280 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 35

24H: 22/01/2021 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SO: 280 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

36H: 23/01/2021 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 360 SO: 280 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 23/01/2021 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 33.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 380 SO: 280 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 230 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

60H: 24/01/2021 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 32.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 400 SO: 280 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 110

72H: 24/01/2021 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 31.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0;CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LE CENTRE DE LA TEMPETE ELOISE EST
PASSE AU NORD IMMEDIAT DE JUAN DE NOVA, COMME LE MONTRE LA ROTATION
DES VENTS OBSERVES SUR L'ILE DU SECTEUR EST AU SECTEUR NORD. LES
IMAGES SATELLITAIRES DANS LE CANAL VISIBLE MONTRENT UNE STRUCTURE AU
COEUR ENCORE LARGE, CE QUI EST CONFIRME PAR L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDE GMI
DE 1015UTC ET LA DERNIERE PASSE ASCAT EXPLOITABLE (0551UTC). UNE
STRUCTURE EN OEIL EN BANDE SEMBLE SE DESSINER SUR LES DERNIERES
IMAGES VISIBLES, CONFORTANT UNE ANALYSE DVORAK EN T3.0. CETTE ANALYSE
DVORAK PERMET D'ESTIMER LES VENTS A 40KT, VALEUR QUI SURPASSE
LEGEREMENT LES ANCIENNES DONNEES ASCAT DE 0551UTC QUI ETAIENT PLUS
PROCHES DE 35KT. ELOISE EST DONC ENCORE AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONTINUER SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN
TRAVERSANT LE CANAL, SE DEPLACANT SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LOCALISEE AU SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR. SUIVANT
CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, ELOISE DEVRAIT ARRIVER AU NIVEAU DES COTES
MOZAMBICAINES D'ICI SAMEDI EN MATINEE (HEURE DU MOZAMBIQUE). LA
CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE RESTE BONNE ET S'APPUIE
SUR UN FAISCEAU DE GUIDANCE BIEN RESSERE AUTOUR D'UN CONSENSUS
MULTI-MODELE. IL EXISTE ENCORE UNE LEGERE IMPRECISION SUR LE TIMING
D'ATTERRISSAGE.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION FRANCHE ET RAPIDE (EAUX CHAUDES,
ENVIRONNEMENT HUMIDE, PAS DE CISAILLEMENT ET BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE
NORD). CETTE INTENSIFICATION DEVRAIT SE METTRE EN PLACE DANS LES 12
PROCHAINES HEURES, LE TEMPS QUE LE COEUR DU SYSTEME SE CONSOLIDE. LES
GUIDANCES SONT GLOBALEMENT TRES REACTIVES DES LES PREMIERES ECHEANCES
(BEAUCOUP TROP PAR RAPPORT A L'OBSERVATION) ET SUGGERENT QU'ELOISE
DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LE SEUIL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AVANT
L'ATTERRISSAGE, SCENARIO SUIVI ACTUELLEMENT PAR LE CMRS, EN PRENANT
EN COMPTE LE RETARD D'INTENSIFICATION OBSERVE A COURTE ECHEANCE.

POUR LE MOZAMBIQUE, LA MENACE D'UN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF EST EN HAUSSE
POUR LA ZONE AUTOUR DE BEIRA, ENTRE QUELIMANE AU NORD ET INHAMBANE AU
SUD. DANS LA JOURNEE DE JEUDI, DE FORTES PLUIES VONT COMMENCER A
IMPACTER CERTAINES REGIONS, UNE LARGE ZONE COTIERE ENTRE ANGOCHE ET
QUELIMANE A L'APPROCHE DU METEORE. LE VENT FORT DEVRAIT AUSSI ETRE
PLUS PRESENT A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI SUR CES ZONES. A
PARTIR DE VENDREDI, LA ZONE IMPACTEE SE DEPLACE PLUS VERS BEIRA ET
PLUS PROFONDEMENT DANS LES TERRES. LES HABITANTS DES REGIONS
CENTRALES ET SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE SONT INVITES A SUIVRE DES A PRESENT
LES CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 211303
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/7/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/21 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 42.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 139 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/22 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 35

24H: 2021/01/22 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2021/01/23 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 360 SW: 280 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2021/01/23 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 33.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 380 SW: 280 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 230 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

60H: 2021/01/24 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 32.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 400 SW: 280 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SW: 150 NW: 110

72H: 2021/01/24 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 31.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0;CI=3.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CENTER OF ELOISE PASSED TO THE IMMEDIATE
NORTH OF JUAN DE NOVA, AS SHOWN BY THE WIND ROTATION OBSERVED ON THE
ISLAND, FROM THE EAST SECTOR TO THE NORTH SECTOR. SATELLITE IMAGES IN
THE VISIBLE CHANNEL SHOW A STRUCTURE WITH A WIDE CORE, WHICH IS
CONFIRMED BY THE MICROWAVE GMI IMAGERY OF 1015UTC AND THE LAST ASCAT
SWATH (0551UTC). A BANDED EYE STRUCTURE SEEMS TO APPEAR ON THE LAST
VISIBLE IMAGES, CONFIRMING A DVORAK ANALYSIS AT T3.0. THIS DVORAK
ANALYSIS ALLOWS TO ESTIMATE THE WINDS AT 40KT, A VALUE THAT SLIGHTLY
SURPASSES THE PREVIOUS ASCAT DATA OF 0551UTC WHICH WERE CLOSER TO
35KT. ELOISE IS THEREFORE STILL A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK ACROSS THE
CHANNEL, MOVING ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. FOLLOWING THIS TRACK, ELOISE SHOULD
REACH THE MOZAMBICAN COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING (MOZAMBICAN TIME).
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS GOOD AND IS BASED ON A TIGHT
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE TIME OF LANDFALL IS STILL SLIGHTLY
UNCERTAIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE TO
A FRANK AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION (WARM WATER, WET ENVIRONMENT, NO
SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE). THIS INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WHEN THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES. THE GUIDANCES ARE GLOBALLY VERY REACTIVE FROM
THE FIRST STAGES OF THE FORECAST (TOO MUCH COMPARED TO THE
OBSERVATION) AND SUGGEST THAT ELOISE SHOULD REACH THE THRESHOLD OF
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE LANDFALL, SCENARIO CURRENTLY FOLLOWED
BY THE RSMC, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DELAY OF INTENSIFICATION
OBSERVED IN THE SHORT TERM.

FOR MOZAMBIQUE, THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS INCREASING FOR
THE AREA AROUND BEIRA, BETWEEN QUELIMANE IN THE NORTH AND INHAMBANE
IN THE SOUTH. ON THURSDAY, HEAVY RAINS WILL START TO IMPACT SOME
AREAS, A LARGE COASTAL ZONE BETWEEN ANGOCHE AND QUELIMANE AS THE
METEOR APPROACHES. THE STRONG WIND SHOULD ALSO BE MORE PRESENT FROM
THE NIGHT OF THURSDAY TO FRIDAY IN THESE AREAS. FROM FRIDAY ONWARD,
THE IMPACTED ZONE MOVES MORE TOWARDS BEIRA AND DEEPER INLAND. THE
INHABITANTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGIONS OF MOZAMBIQUE ARE
INVITED TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES FROM NOW
ON.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 211205
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/01/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 21/01/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 42.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 220 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 320 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/22 AT 00 UTC:
18.1 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/22 AT 12 UTC:
18.8 S / 37.6 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 210650
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/7/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 21/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.2 S / 43.3 E
(SEIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 110 SO: 185 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 75 SO: 150 NO: 150

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/01/2021 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SO: 195 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 85

24H: 22/01/2021 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SO: 220 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55

36H: 22/01/2021 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SO: 215 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 23/01/2021 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 34.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 120 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 23/01/2021 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 33.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 45 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 35 NO: 65

72H: 24/01/2021 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 31.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EST RESTEE
EN BANDE INCURVEE AVEC DES SOMMETS CONVECTIFS RESTANT ASSEZ FROIDS.
LA PRESENCE DU CONTINENT AFRICAIN LIMITE UN PEU L'EXTENSION DE LA
BANDE INCURVEE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST. EN L'ABSENCE DE NOUVELLES
DONNEES VENT SATELLITE, L'ANALYSE DVORAK DE 3.5- LAISSE ENCORE ELOISE
AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMES A 45KT.
LES OBSERVATIONS DE JUAN DE NOVA, SITUEE A 0600UTC A PRES DE 100KM AU
SUD-OUEST DU CENTE DE ELOISE, FOURNISSENT DES VENTS MOYENS DE 30KT
AVEC DES RAFALES DEPASSANT LES 50KT. LA PRESSION EST EN BAISSE
CONTNIUE AVEC UNE VALEUR DE 996HPA.

LEGER CHANGEMENT DANS LA TRAJECTOIRE AVEC UNE ACCELERATION UN PEU
PLUS MARQUEE PAR RAPPORT A LA PRECEDENTE PREVISION CMRS. LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT TOUTEFOIS CONTINUER SA TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN
TRAVERSANT LE CANAL SE DEPLACANT SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE LOCALISEE AU SUD-EST DE MADAGASCARSE. SUIVANT CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE, ELOISE DEVRAIT ARRIVER AU NIVEAU DES COTES MOZAMBICAINES
D'ICI SAMEDI EN MATINEE (HEURE DU MOZAMBIQUE). LA CONFIANCE DANS LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE RESTE BONNE AVEC UN FAISCEAU DE GUIDANCE
ASSEZ BIEN RESSERE AUTOUR D'UN CONSENSUS AU COURS DES DERNIERS RUNS,
BIEN QU'IL EXISTE ENCORE UNE CERTAINE IMPRECISION SUR LE TIMING
D'ATTERRISSAGE.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION FRANCHE ET RAPIDE (EAUX CHAUDES,
ENVIRONNEMENT HUMIDE, PAS DE CISAILLEMENT ET BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE
NORD). LES GUIDANCES SONT D'AILLEURS GLOBALEMENT TRES REACTIVES ET
SUGGERENT QU'ELOISE DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LE SEUIL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE, AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE. AU COURS DE SON DEPLACEMENT SUR LE
CANAL, DES FLUCTUATIONS DANS L'INTENSIFICATION SONT ATTENDUES DU FAIT
DE PHENEMONES COMME LE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL.

ELOISE GENERE ACTUELLEMENT DES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES DANGEREUSES
SUR LE NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR. DES CUMULS DE 150 A 200 MM EN 24H,
LOCALEMENT PLUS, SONT POSSIBLES SUR LES REGIONS NORD-OUEST DE
MADAGASCAR. DES VENTS FORTS A 45KT VOIRE PLUS SE PROPAGENT DU NORD AU
SUD LE LONG DES COTES NORD-OUEST PUIS OUEST DE MADAGASCAR. CES VENTS,
ORIENTES DE LA MER VERS LA TERRE, SUR LA COTE NORD-OUEST, PEUVENT
OCCASIONNER LOCALEMENT QUELQUES SUBMERSIONS COTIERES. LES HABITANTS
DES ZONES CONCERNEES SONT INVITES A SE TENIR INFORMES DE LA SUITE DES
EVENEMENTS PAR LE BIAIS DES INFORMATIONS ET RECOMMENDATIONS DES
SERVICES METEOROLOGIQUES MALGACHES.

POUR LE MOZAMBIQUE, LA MENACE D'UN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF EST EN HAUSSE
POUR LA ZONE AUTOUR DE BEIRA, ENTRE QUELIMANE AU NORD ET INHAMBANE AU
SUD. DANS LA JOURNEE DE JEUDI, DE FORTES PLUIES VONT COMMENCER A
IMPACTER CERTAINES REGIONS, UNE LARGE ZONE COTIERE ENTRE ANGOCHE ET
QUELIMANEA L'APPROCHE DU METEORE. LE VENT FORT DEVRAIT AUSSI ETRE
PLUS PRESENT A PARTIR DE LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI SUR CES ZONES.
EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI, LA ZONE IMPACTE SE DEPLACE PLUS VERS BEIRA ET
PLUS PROFONDEMENT DANS LES TERRES. LES HABITANTS DES REGIONS
CENTRALES ET SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE SONT INVITES A SUIVRE DES A PRESENT
LES CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 210650
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/7/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/21 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 43.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 110 SW: 185 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 75 SW: 150 NW: 150

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/21 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 85

24H: 2021/01/22 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55

36H: 2021/01/22 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 215 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2021/01/23 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 34.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 120 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2021/01/23 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 33.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 45 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 35 NW: 65

72H: 2021/01/24 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 31.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINED IN A CURVED BAND
WITH CONVECTIVE TOPS REMAINING QUITE COLD. THE PRESENCE OF THE
AFRICAN CONTINENT SOMEWHAT LIMITS THE EXTENSION OF THE CURVED BAND IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW SATELLITE WIND DATA,
THE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 3.5- LEAVES US AT THE STAGE OF A MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 45KT. OBSERVATIONS FROM JUAN
DE NOVA, LOCATED AT 0600UTC ABOUT 100KM SOUTHWEST OF ELOISE CENTER,
PROVIDE AVERAGE WINDS OF 30KT WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 50KT. THE PRESSURE
IS DECREASING STEADILY WITH A VALUE OF 996HPA.

SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE TRACK WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE MARKED ACCELERATION
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST RSMC. THE SYSTEM SHOULD HOWEVER
CONTINUE ITS TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CHANNEL MOVING ON THE
NORTHWEST FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR. FOLLOWING THIS TRACK, ELOISE SHOULD REACH THE MOZAMBICAN
COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING (MOZAMBICAN TIME). CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST REMAINS GOOD WITH A FAIRLY CLOSE GUIDANCE BEAM AROUND A
CONSENSUS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME
IMPRECISION ON THE LANDING TIMING.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
A FRANK AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION (WARM WATER, WET ENVIRONMENT, NO
SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE). THE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS
ARE, MOREOVER, GLOBALLY VERY REACTIVE AND SUGGEST THAT ELOISE SHOULD
REACH THE THRESHOLD OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE LANDING.
DURING ITS MOVEMENT ON THE CHANNEL, FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSIFICATION
ARE EXPECTED DUE TO PHENOMENA SUCH AS THE EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.

ELOISE IS CURRENTLY GENERATING HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
NORTHWEST MADAGASCAR. ACCUMULATIONS OF 150 TO 200 MM IN 24 HOURS,
LOCALLY MORE, ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN REGIONS OF
MADAGASCAR. STRONG WINDS OF 45 KNOTS OR MORE ARE SPREADING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF MADAGASCAR.
THESE WINDS, ORIENTED FROM THE SEA TO THE LAND, ON THE NORTHWEST
COAST, CAN LOCALLY CAUSE SOME COASTAL SUBMERSION. THE INHABITANTS OF
THE CONCERNED AREAS ARE INVITED TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE FOLLOWING
EVENTS THROUGH THE INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE MALAGASY
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES.

FOR MOZAMBIQUE, THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS INCREASING FOR
THE AREA AROUND BEIRA, BETWEEN QUELIMANE IN THE NORTH AND INHAMBANE
IN THE SOUTH. ON THURSDAY, HEAVY RAINS WILL START TO IMPACT SOME
REGIONS, A LARGE COASTAL AREA BETWEEN ANGOCHE AND QUELIMANEA AS THE
METEOR APPROACHES. THE STRONG WIND SHOULD ALSO BE MORE PRESENT FROM
THE NIGHT OF THURSDAY TO FRIDAY IN THESE AREAS. DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY, THE IMPACTED ZONE MOVES MORE TOWARDS BEIRA AND DEEPER INLAND.
THE INHABITANTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGIONS OF MOZAMBIQUE ARE
INVITED TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES FROM NOW
ON.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 210604
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/01/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 21/01/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 43.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 450 NM IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/21 AT 18 UTC:
17.2 S / 41.2 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/22 AT 06 UTC:
18.1 S / 39.0 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 210059
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/7/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 21/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.9 S / 44.3 E
(QUINZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 0 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 0 SO: 150 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/01/2021 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 155 SO: 250 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 140 SO: 165 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 85

24H: 22/01/2021 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 75

36H: 22/01/2021 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 38.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SO: 285 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 230 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55

48H: 23/01/2021 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SO: 195 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 185 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 23/01/2021 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 34.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 24/01/2021 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 33.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 110 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SO: 85 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/01/2021 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 30.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

120H: 26/01/2021 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 27.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+.

L'IMAGERIE SATELLITAIRE ET LES DERNIA RES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES GPM DE
2059UTC MONTRENT QUE LE CENTRE D'ELOISE SE TROUVE MAINTENANT SUR MER
EN BORDURE DE LA COTE NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR. DE PLUS LE SYSTEME
PRESENTE MAINTENANT UNE BELLE BANDE INCURVEE OCCUPANT LA TOTALITA DU
CANAL, TRADUISANT LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA CIRCULATION. L'INTENSITE EST
AUGMENTE A 40 KT AVEC DU COUP DE VENT DANS LE CADRAN DANS LES
QUADRANTS NORD-EST ET SUD-OUEST SELON LES DONNEES ASCAT DE 1930UTC.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONTINUER SA TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST QUI LE
FERA COMMENCER A TRAVERSER LE CANAL. ENSUITE, ELOISE GARDE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST A SUD-OUEST QUI DEVRAIT L'AMENER AU
NIVEAU DES COTES MOZAMBICAINES D'ICI SAMEDI, ALORS QUE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE SE RENOUVELLE AU SUD-EST DU METEORE. LA CONFIANCE DANS
LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST EN HAUSSE AVEC UN FAISCEAU DE
GUIDANCE ASSEZ BIEN RESSERE AUTOUR D'UN CONSENSUS AU COURS DES
DERNIERS RUNS.

DE RETOUR SUR LES EAUX DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT FAVORABLES A UNE REINTENSIFICATION FRANCHE ET
POTENTIELLEMENT RAPIDE (EAUX CHAUDES, ENVIRONNEMENT HUMIDE, PAS DE
CISAILLEMENT ET BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE NORD).
LES GUIDANCES SONT D'AILLEURS GLOBALEMENT TRES REACTIVES ET SUGGERENT
QU'ELOISE DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LE SEUIL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL, VOIRE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE, AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE. IL Y A AUSSI UN
CONSENSUS PARMI LES GUIDANCES POUR QU'ELOISE DEVIENNE UN SYSTEME
D'ASSEZ GRANDE TAILLE POUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, CE QUI EN FERAIT
UN SYSTEME PARTICULIEREMENT DANGEREUX.

ELOISE GENERE ACTUELLEMENT DES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES DANGEREUSES
SUR LE NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR. DES CUMULS DE 100 A 150 MM EN 24H,
LOCALEMENT PLUS, SONT POSSIBLES SUR LES REGIONS NORD-OUEST DE
MADAGASCAR. DES VENTS FORTS A 30/35 KT SE PROPAGENT DU NORD AU SUD LE
LONG DES COTES NORD-OUEST PUIS OUEST DE MADAGASCAR. CES VENTS,
ORIENTES DE LA MER VERS LA TERRE, SUR LA COTE NORD-OUEST, PEUVENT
OCCASIONNER LOCALEMENT QUELQUES SUBMERSIONS COTIERES. LES HABITANTS
DES ZONES CONCERNEES SONT INVITES A SE TENIR INFORMES DE LA SUITE DES
EVENEMENTS PAR LE BIAIS DES INFORMATIONS ET RECOMMENDATIONS DES
SERVICES METEOROLOGIQUES MALGACHES.

POUR LE MOZAMBIQUE, LA MENACE D'UN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF EST EN HAUSSE
POUR LA ZONE AUTOUR DE BEIRA, ENTRE QUELIMANE AU NORD ET INHAMBANE AU
SUD ET IL EST IMPORTANT QUE L'ENSEMBLE DES HABITANTS DE LA ZONE
POTENTIELLE D'IMPACT SUIVENT LES CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES LOCALES.
DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI, DE FORTES PLUIES ET DES VENTS FORTS
VONT COMMENCER A IMPACTER CERTAINES REGIONS, UNE LARGE ZONE COTIERE
ENTRE ANGOCHE ET QUELIMANEA L'APPROCHE DU METEORE, PUIS EN JOURNA EE
DE VENDREDI ENTRE QUELIMANE AU NORD ET INHAMBANE AU SUD PLUS
PROFONDEMENT DANS LES TERRES. LE TEMPS EST PREVU SE DEGRADER AU SEIN
DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT POTENTIEL DES VENDREDI APRES-MIDI. LES HABITANTS
DES REGIONS CENTRALES ET SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE SONT INVITES A SUIVRE DES
A PRESENT LES CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 210059
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/7/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/21 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 44.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 0 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 0 SW: 150 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/21 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 155 SW: 250 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 85

24H: 2021/01/22 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 75

36H: 2021/01/22 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 38.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55

48H: 2021/01/23 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2021/01/23 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 34.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/01/24 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 33.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 85 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/25 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 30.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2021/01/26 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 27.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LAST MW DATA GPM OAT 2059UTC SHOW THAT THE
CENTER OF ELOISE IS NOW OVER SEAS NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR.
MOREOVER DEEEP CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED IN A LARGE CURVED BAND OVER
ALL THE WIDTH OF THE CHANEL, REFLECTING THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS IN THE 1930UTC
ASACT DATA.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESUME A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK WHICH WILL MAKE IT
CROSS THE CHANEL.
THEN, ELOISE IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST TRACK
WHICH SHOULD BRING IT ON THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS BY SATURDAY, WHILE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RENEWS ITSELF SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK PREDICTION IS INCREASING WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GUIDANCE
BEAM AROUND A CONSENSUS DURING THE LAST FEW RUNS.

BACK OVER SEAS ON THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FRANK AND POTENTIALLY RAPID REINTENSIFICATION
(WARM WATERS, MOIST ENVIRONMENT, LITTLE SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARDS
DIVERGENCE).
OTHERWISE, THE GUIDANCES ARE GENERALLY VERY REACTIVE AND SUGGEST THAT
ELOISE SHOULD REACH THE THRESHOLD OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE, OR EVEN AN
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, BEFORE LANDFALL. THERE IS ALSO CONSENSUS
AMONG GUIDANCE THAT ELOISE SHOULD BECOME A LARGE ENOUGH SYSTEM FOR
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WHICH WOULD MAKE IT A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
SYSTEM.

ELOISE IS CURRENTLY GENERATING HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
NORTHWESTERN MADAGASCAR. ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 150 MM IN 24 HOURS,
LOCALLY MORE, ARE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH-WESTERN REGIONS OF
MADAGASCAR. STRONG WINDS, REACHING NEAR GALE OR GALE FORCE WINDS
(30/35 KT) ARE SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST THEN WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THESE WINDS, ORIENTED FROM
THE SEA TO THE LAND, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST, MAY CAUSE SOME
LOCAL COASTAL SUBMERSION. THE INHABITANTS OF THE AREAS CONCERNED ARE
INVITED TO KEEP THEMSELVES INFORMED OF THE FOLLOWING EVENTS THROUGH
THE INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE MALAGASY METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICES.

FOR MOZAMBIQUE, THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS INCREASING FOR
THE AREA NEAR BEIRA, FROM QUELIMANE IN THE NORTH AND INHAMBANE IN THE
SOUTH AND IT IS IMPORTANT THAT ALL THE INHABITANTS OF THE POTENTIAL
IMPACT ZONE FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
IN THE NIGHT OF THURSDAY TO FRIDAY, HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS
WILL START TO IMPACT SOME AREAS, A LARGE COASTAL ZONE BETWEEN ANGOCHE
AND QUELIMANE AT THE APPROACH OF THE METEORE, THEN ON FRIDAY MORE
INTO LANDS FROM QUELIMANE IN THE NORTH AND INHAMBANE IN THE SOUTH.
THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE WITHIN THE POTENTIAL IMPACT
ZONE AS SOON AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE INHABITANTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN REGIONS OF MOZAMBIQUE ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 210016
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/01/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 21/01/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 44.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 320
NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/21 AT 12 UTC:
16.9 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/22 AT 00 UTC:
17.6 S / 40.3 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 201821
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/7/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 20/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.7 S / 45.1 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/01/2021 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 35 SO: 75 NO: 55

24H: 21/01/2021 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 270 SO: 195 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 35

36H: 22/01/2021 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 285 SO: 220 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 30 NO: 35

48H: 22/01/2021 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 285 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 65

60H: 23/01/2021 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 295 SO: 165 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SO: 140 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 75

72H: 23/01/2021 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 33.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 155 SO: 55 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SO: 45 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/01/2021 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 30.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

120H: 25/01/2021 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 27.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+.

L'IMAGERIE SATELLITAIRE ET LES OBSERVATIONS DE SURFACE (METAR DE
MAJUNGA) MONTRENT QUE LE CENTRE D'ELOISE SE TROUVE MAINTENANT SUR MER
EN BORDURE DE LA COTE NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR. DE PLUS LA COURBURE
DES BANDES CONVECTIVES S'EST NETTEMENT ACCENTUE, AVEC DES
TEMPERATURES TRES FOIDES (-85/-88) TRADUISANT UN RENFORCEMENT
PROBABLE DE LA CIRCULATION. L'INTENSITE EST AUGMENTE A 35 KT AVEC DU
COUP DE VENT DASN LE CADRAN DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST SELON LES
DONNEES ASCAT DE 17UTC.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT REPRENDRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST QUI LE
FERA LONGER LE LITTORAL MALGACHE JUSQU'EN FIN DE NUIT, PUIS COMMENCER
A TRAVERSER LE CANAL. ENSUITE, ELOISE GARDE UNE TRAJECTOIRE
OUEST-SUD-OUEST A SUD-OUEST QUI DEVRAIT L'AMENER AU NIVEAU DES COTES
MOZAMBICAINES D'ICI SAMEDI, ALORS QUE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SE
RENOUVELLE AU SUD-EST DU METEORE. LA CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE EST EN HAUSSE AVEC UN FAISCEAU DE GUIDANCE ASSEZ BIEN
RESSERE AUTOUR D'UN CONSENSUS QUI S'EST ENCORE SENSIBLEMENT DECALE
VERS LE NORD AU COURS DES DERNIERS RUNS.

JEUDI, UNE FOIS RESSORTI EN MER DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SERONT FAVORABLES A UNE
REINTENSIFICATION FRANCHE ET POTENTIELLEMENT RAPIDE (EAUX CHAUDES,
ENVIRONNEMENT HUMIDE, PAS DE CISAILLEMENT ET BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE
NORD). IL CONVIENT DE RESTER PRUDENT SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE
APRES UN TRAJET AU-DESSUS DES TERRES QUI POURRAIT RETARDER LA
REINTENSIFICATION. CEPENDANT, LES GUIDANCES SONT GLOBALEMENT TRES
REACTIVES ET SUGGERENT QU'ELOISE DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LE SEUIL DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL, VOIRE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE, AVANT
L'ATTERRISSAGE. IL Y A AUSSI UN CONSENSUS PARMI LES GUIDANCES POUR
QU'ELOISE DEVIENNE UN SYSTEME D'ASSEZ GRANDE TAILLE POUR LE CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE, CE QUI EN FERAIT UN SYSTEME PARTICULIEREMENT DANGEREUX.

ELOISE GENERE ACTUELLEMENT DES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES DANGEREUSES
SUR LE NORD DE MADAGASCAR. DES CUMULS DE 100 A 150 MM EN 24H,
LOCALEMENT PLUS, SONT POSSIBLES SUR LES REGIONS NORD-OUEST DE
MADAGASCAR. DES VENTS FORTS A 30/35 KT SE PROPAGENT DU NORD AU SUD LE
LONG DES COTES NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR. CES VENTS, ORIENTES DE LA
MER VERS LA TERRE, PEUVENT OCCASIONNER LOCALEMENT QUELQUES
SUBMERSIONS COTIERES. LES HABITANTS DES ZONES CONCERNEES SONT INVITES
A SE TENIR INFORMES DE LA SUITE DES EVENEMENTS PAR LE BIAIS DES
INFORMATIONS ET RECOMMENDATIONS DES SERVICES METEOROLOGIQUES
MALGACHES.

POUR LE MOZAMBIQUE, LA MENACE D'UN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF EST EN HAUSSE
POUR LA ZONE AUTOUR DE BEIRA, ENTRE QUELIMANE AU NORD ET INHAMBANE AU
SUD ET IL EST IMPORTANT QUE L'ENSEMBLE DES HABITANTS DE LA ZONE
POTENTIELLE D'IMPACT SUIVENT LES CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES LOCALES.
A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, DE FORTES PLUIES ET DES VENTS FORTS VONT
COMMENCER A IMPACTER CERTAINES REGIONS, UNE LARGE ZONE COTIERE ENTRE
ANGOCHE ET QUELIMANEA L'APPROCHE DU METEORE, PUIS ENTRE QUELIMANE AU
NORD ET INHAMBANE AU SUD PLUS PROFONDEMENT DANS LES TERRES. LE TEMPS
EST PREVU SE DEGRADER AU SEIN DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT POTENTIEL DES
VENDREDI APRES-MIDI. LES HABITANTS DES REGIONS CENTRALES ET SUD DU
MOZAMBIQUE SONT INVITES A SUIVRE DES A PRESENT LES CONSIGNES DES
AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 201821
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/7/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/20 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 45.1 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/21 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 35 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2021/01/21 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 270 SW: 195 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 35

36H: 2021/01/22 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 285 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 35

48H: 2021/01/22 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 65

60H: 2021/01/23 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 295 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 75

72H: 2021/01/23 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 33.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 155 SW: 55 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/24 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 30.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2021/01/25 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 27.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=205+.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS (METAR DE MAJUNGA) SHOW
THAT THE CENTER OF ELOISE IS NOW OVER SEAS NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF MADAGASCAR. MOREOVER THE CURVATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDS
HAS BEEN CLEARLY INCREASED, WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES (-85/-88)
REFLECTING A PROBABLE STRENGTHENING OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 35 KT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT IN THE 17UTC ASACT DATA.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESUME A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK WHICH WILL MAKE IT
SKIRT THE MALAGASY COAST UNTIL THE END OF THE NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO
CROSS THE CHANEL.
THEN, ELOISE IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST TRACK
WHICH SHOULD BRING IT ON THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS BY SATURDAY, WHILE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RENEWS ITSELF SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK PREDICTION IS INCREASING WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GUIDANCE
BEAM AROUND A CONSENSUS THAT HAS SHIFTED ONCE AGAIN SIGNIFICANTLY
NORTHWARD DURING THE LAST FEW RUNS.

ON THURSDAY, ONCE OUT TO SEA IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FRANK AND POTENTIALLY RAPID
REINTENSIFICATION (WARM WATERS, MOIST ENVIRONMENT, LITTLE SHEAR AND
GOOD EQUATORWARDS DIVERGENCE). IT IS ADVISABLE TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS ON
THE INTENSITY PREDICTION AFTER AN OVERLAND TRACK THAT COULD DELAY
REINTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCES ARE GENERALLY VERY REACTIVE
AND SUGGEST THAT ELOISE SHOULD REACH THE THRESHOLD OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE, OR EVEN AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, BEFORE LANDFALL. THERE
IS ALSO CONSENSUS AMONG GUIDANCE THAT ELOISE SHOULD BECOME A LARGE
ENOUGH SYSTEM FOR THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WHICH WOULD MAKE IT A
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SYSTEM.

ELOISE IS CURRENTLY GENERATING HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 150 MM IN 24 HOURS,
LOCALLY MORE, ARE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH-WESTERN REGIONS OF
MADAGASCAR. STRONG WINDS, REACHING NEAR GALE OR GALE FORCE WINDS
(30/35 KT) ARE SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THESE WINDS, ORIENTED FROM THE SEA TO THE LAND,
MAY CAUSE SOME LOCAL COASTAL SUBMERSION. THE INHABITANTS OF THE AREAS
CONCERNED (NORTH-WEST OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN NOSY-BE AND MAINTIRANO)
ARE INVITED TO KEEP THEMSELVES INFORMED OF THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
THROUGH THE INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE MALAGASY
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES.

FOR MOZAMBIQUE, THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS INCREASING FOR
THE AREA NEAR BEIRA, FROM QUELIMANE IN THE NORTH AND INHAMBANE IN THE
SOUTH AND IT IS IMPORTANT THAT ALL THE INHABITANTS OF THE POTENTIAL
IMPACT ZONE FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
FROM FRIDAY, HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS WILL START TO IMPACT SOME
AREAS, A LARGE COASTAL ZONE BETWEEN ANGOCHE AND QUELIMANE AT THE
APPROACH OF THE METEORE, THEN MORE INTO LANDS FROM QUELIMANE IN THE
NORTH AND INHAMBANE IN THE SOUTH. THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE WITHIN THE POTENTIAL IMPACT ZONE AS SOON AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE INHABITANTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGIONS OF
MOZAMBIQUE ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL
AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 201814
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/01/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 20/01/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 45.1 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 450 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 80
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/21 AT 06 UTC:
16.8 S / 42.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 150 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/21 AT 18 UTC:
17.6 S / 40.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 201248
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/7/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 20/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.5 S / 46.8 E
(QUINZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/01/2021 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 0 SO: 55 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 35

24H: 21/01/2021 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 155 SO: 100 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 75

36H: 22/01/2021 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 270 SO: 195 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 35

48H: 22/01/2021 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 295 SO: 280 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SO: 205 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 65

60H: 23/01/2021 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 315 SO: 215 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 75

72H: 23/01/2021 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 270 SO: 110 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 100 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 55 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/01/2021 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 32.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 55

120H: 25/01/2021 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 30.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
L'IMAGERIE SATELLITAIRE ET LES OBSERVATIONS DE SURFACE (METAR DE
MAJUNGA) MONTRENT QUE LE CENTRE D'ELOISE SE TROUVE A PROXIMITE
IMMADIATE DU LITTORAL NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR. DE PLUS LA COURBURE
DES BANDES CONVECTIVES PRESENTES EN MER S'EST NETTEMENT ACCENTUE
TRADUISANT UN RENFORCEMENT PROBABLE DE LA CIRCULATION. L'INTENSITE
EST AUGMENTE A 35 KT AVEC DU COUP DE VENT PROBABLE DANS LE QUADRANT
NORD-EST.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT REPRENDRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST QUI LE
FERA LONGER LE LITTORAL MALGACHE LA NUIT PROCHAINE PUIS RESSORTIR
PLUS PLEINEMENT EN MER EN FIN DE NUIT. ENSUITE, ELOISE GARDE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST A SUD-OUEST QUI DEVRAIT L'AMENER AU
NIVEAU DES COTES MOZAMBICAINES D'ICI SAMEDI, ALORS QUE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE SE RENOUVELLE AU SUD-EST DU METEORE. LA CONFIANCE DANS
LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST EN HAUSSE AVEC UN FAISCEAU DE
GUIDANCE ASSEZ BIEN RESSERE AUTOUR D'UN CONSENSUS QUI S'EST
SENSIBLEMENT DECALE VERS LE NORD AU COURS DES DERNIERS RUNS.

JEUDI, UNE FOIS RESSORTI EN MER DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SERONT FAVORABLES A UNE
REINTENSIFICATION FRANCHE ET POTENTIELLEMENT RAPIDE (EAUX CHAUDES,
ENVIRONNEMENT HUMIDE, PAS DE CISAILLEMENT ET BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE
NORD). IL CONVIENT DE RESTER PRUDENT SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE
APRES UN TRAJET AU-DESSUS DES TERRES QUI POURRAIT RETARDER LA
REINTENSIFICATION. CEPENDANT, LES GUIDANCES SONT GLOBALEMENT TRES
REACTIVES ET SUGGERENT QU'ELOISE DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LE SEUIL DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL, VOIRE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE, AVANT
L'ATTERRISSAGE. IL Y A AUSSI UN CONSENSUS PARMI LES GUIDANCES POUR
QU'ELOISE DEVIENNE UN SYSTEME D'ASSEZ GRANDE TAILLE POUR LE CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE, CE QUI EN FERAIT UN SYSTEME PARTICULIEREMENT DANGEREUX.

ELOISE GENERE ACTUELLEMENT DES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES DANGEREUSES
SUR LE NORD DE MADAGASCAR. DES CUMULS DE 100 A 150 MM EN 24H,
LOCALEMENT PLUS, SONT POSSIBLES SUR LES REGIONS NORD-OUEST DE
MADAGASCAR. DES VENTS FORTS A 30/35 KT SE PROPAGENT DU NORD AU SUD LE
LONG DES COTES NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR. CES VENTS, ORIENTES DE LA
MER VERS LA TERRE, PEUVENT OCCASIONNER LOCALEMENT QUELQUES
SUBMERSIONS COTIERES. LES HABITANTS DES ZONES CONCERNEES SONT INVITES
A SE TENIR INFORMES DE LA SUITE DES EVENEMENTS PAR LE BIAIS DES
INFORMATIONS ET RECOMMENDATIONS DES SERVICES METEOROLOGIQUES
MALGACHES.

POUR LE MOZAMBIQUE, LA MENACE D'UN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF EST EN HAUSSE
POUR LA ZONE ENTRE BEIRA AU NORD ET INHAMBANE AU SUD ET IL EST
IMPORTANT QUE L'ENSEMBLE DES HABITANTS DE LA ZONE POTENTIELLE
D'IMPACT SUIVENT LES CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES LOCALES. A PARTIR DE
VENDREDI, DE FORTES PLUIES ET DES VENTS FORTS VONT COMMENCER A
IMPACTER CERTAINES REGIONS NOTAMMENT ENTRE PEBANE ET BEIRA. LE TEMPS
EST PREVU SE DEGRADER AU SEIN DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT POTENTIEL DES
VENDREDI APRES-MIDI. LES HABITANTS DES REGIONS CENTRALES ET SUD DU
MOZAMBIQUE SONT INVITES A SUIVRE DES A PRESENT LES CONSIGNES DES
AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 201248
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/7/20202021
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 46.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/21 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 0 SW: 55 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 35

24H: 2021/01/21 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75

36H: 2021/01/22 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 270 SW: 195 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 35

48H: 2021/01/22 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 65

60H: 2021/01/23 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 315 SW: 215 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 75

72H: 2021/01/23 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 270 SW: 110 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 100 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/24 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 32.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 55

120H: 2021/01/25 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 30.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS (METAR DE MAJUNGA) SHOW
THAT THE CENTER OF ELOISE IS IN IMMADIATE PROXIMITY TO THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. MOREOVER THE CURVATURE OF THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS PRESENT OVERSEA HAS BEEN CLEARLY INCREASED
REFLECTING A PROBABLE STRENGTHENING OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 35 KT WITH PROBABLE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESUME A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK WHICH WILL MAKE IT
SKIRT THE MALAGASY COAST NEXT NIGHT AND THEN COME OUT MORE FULLY AT
SEA AT THE END OF THE NIGHT. THEN, ELOISE IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS A
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST TRACK WHICH SHOULD BRING IT ON THE
MOZAMBICAN COASTS BY SATURDAY, WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RENEWS
ITSELF SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK PREDICTION
IS INCREASING WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GUIDANCE BEAM AROUND A CONSENSUS
THAT HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY NORTHWARD DURING THE LAST FEW RUNS.

ON THURSDAY, ONCE OUT TO SEA IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FRANK AND POTENTIALLY RAPID
REINTENSIFICATION (WARM WATERS, MOIST ENVIRONMENT, LITTLE SHEAR AND
GOOD EQUATORWARDS DIVERGENCE). IT IS ADVISABLE TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS ON
THE INTENSITY PREDICTION AFTER AN OVERLAND TRACK THAT COULD DELAY
REINTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCES ARE GENERALLY VERY REACTIVE
AND SUGGEST THAT ELOISE SHOULD REACH THE THRESHOLD OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE, OR EVEN AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, BEFORE LANDFALL. THERE
IS ALSO CONSENSUS AMONG GUIDANCE THAT ELOISE SHOULD BECOME A LARGE
ENOUGH SYSTEM FOR THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WHICH WOULD MAKE IT A
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SYSTEM.

ELOISE IS CURRENTLY GENERATING HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 150 MM IN 24 HOURS,
LOCALLY MORE, ARE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH-WESTERN REGIONS OF
MADAGASCAR. STRONG WINDS, REACHING NEAR GALE OR GALE FORCE WINDS
(30/35 KT) ARE SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THESE WINDS, ORIENTED FROM THE SEA TO THE LAND,
MAY CAUSE SOME LOCAL COASTAL SUBMERSION. THE INHABITANTS OF THE AREAS
CONCERNED (NORTH-WEST OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN NOSY-BE AND MAINTIRANO)
ARE INVITED TO KEEP THEMSELVES INFORMED OF THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
THROUGH THE INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE MALAGASY
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES.

FOR MOZAMBIQUE, THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS INCREASING FOR
THE AREA BETWEEN BEIRA IN THE NORTH AND INHAMBANE IN THE SOUTH AND IT
IS IMPORTANT THAT ALL THE INHABITANTS OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACT ZONE
FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES. FROM FRIDAY, HEAVY
RAINS AND STRONG WINDS WILL START TO IMPACT SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN PEBANE AND BEIRA. THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
WITHIN THE POTENTIAL IMPACT ZONE AS SOON AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
INHABITANTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGIONS OF MOZAMBIQUE ARE
INVITED TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 201222
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/01/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 20/01/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELOISE) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 46.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 220 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 80
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/21 AT 00 UTC:
16.3 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/21 AT 12 UTC:
17.5 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 15.6S 48.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 48.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.4S 45.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.4S 43.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.3S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.2S 39.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.4S 36.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 23.7S 33.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 24.5S 30.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 47.4E.
20JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ELOISE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200
NM NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THAT TC 12S HAS STEADILY WEAKENED AS IT MOVED
INLAND. THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERODED OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SOME FLARING DEEPER CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE USING LOW-CLOUD TRACING IN THE ANIMATED MSI ALONG WITH
ANALYSIS OF THE BROAD BANDING EVIDENT IN A 200546Z MHS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS BASED ON A
WEAKENING TREND IN UNOFFICIAL PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET
BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND THE FRICTIONAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS REFLECTED IN THE WEAKENING STRUCTURE. THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 12S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT TRACKS OVER MADAGASCAR PRIOR TO EMERGING OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL PRIOR TO TAU 24. WITHIN THE CHANNEL, THE WARM (29-30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW VWS VALUES WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
STEADILY RE-INTENSIFY TO 80 KTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARDS, TC 12S WILL
MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE AND LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THEREAFTER AS IT TRACKS INLAND. NUMERICAL MODELS
REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, PLACING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 200641
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/7/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 20/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.0 S / 47.8 E
(SEIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE SEPT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 315

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/01/2021 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 110

24H: 21/01/2021 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 110

36H: 21/01/2021 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 215 SO: 110 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 75

48H: 22/01/2021 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 95 NO: 35

60H: 22/01/2021 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SO: 270 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 195 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 75

72H: 23/01/2021 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SO: 215 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/01/2021 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 33.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 390 SO: 230 NO: 0

120H: 25/01/2021 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 32.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST EFFONDREE PRES DU CENTRE MAIS SE
MAINTIENT A DISTANCE, NOTAMMENT DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST OU ELLE
EST FORTE ENTRE LES COMORES ET LA COTE NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR. LA
PASS ASACT DE CE MATIN MONTRE L'EXISTENCE DE GRAND-FRAIS AU SEIN DE
CETTE ZONE ET L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME RESTE DONC ESTIMEE A 30 KT. LE
CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES EST LOCALISEE AVEC LES IMAGES VISIBLES.

LE SYSTEME VA TRAVERSER MADAGASCAR AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 18 A 24H
EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RESSORTIR EN MER EN FIN
DE NUIT PROCHAINE. ENSUITE, ELOISE GARDE UNE TRAJECTOIRE
OUEST-SUD-OUEST A SUD-OUEST QUI DEVRAIT L'AMENER AU NIVEAU DES COTES
MOZAMBICAINES D'ICI SAMEDI, ALORS QUE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SE
RENOUVELLE AU SUD-EST DU METEORE. UNE DIFFERENCE D'APPRECIATION DE
L'EXTENSION DE CETTE DORSALE (EN LIEN AVEC LA MISE EN PLACE D'UN
TALWEG D'ALTITUDE SUR L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE A PARTIR DE DEMAIN SOIR)
CONDUISAIT JUSQU'AU RUNS DE 18Z A UNE DIFFERENCE SENSIBLE DE
TRAJECTOIRE ENTRE GFS ET IFS POUVANT LAISSER PLANER UN DOUTE SUR
L'ENVENTUALITE D'UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE. LE RUN DE GFS/00Z
S'EST MAINTENANT ACCORDER SUR LE SCENARIO DE IFS, CE QUI ACCENTUE LE
DEGRE DE CONFIANCE DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE.

JEUDI, UNE FOIS RESSORTI EN MER DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SERONT FAVORABLES A UNE
REINTENSIFICATION FRANCHE ET RAPIDE. IL CONVIENT DE RESTER PRUDENT
SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE APRES UN TRAJET AU-DESSUS DES TERRES QUI
POURRAIT RETARDER LA REINTENSIFICATION. CEPENDANT, LES GUIDANCES SONT
GLOBALEMENT TRES REACTIVES ET SUGGERENT QU'ELOISE DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE
LE SEUIL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL, VOIRE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE,
AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE. IL Y A AUSSI UN CONSENSUS PARMI LES GUIDANCES
POUR QU'ELOISE DEVIENNE UN SYSTEME D'ASSEZ GRANDE TAILLE POUR LE
CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, CE QUI EN FERAIT UN SYSTEME PARTICULIEREMENT
DANGEREUX.

ELOISE GENERE ACTUELLEMENT DES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES DANGEREUSES
SUR LE NORD DE MADAGASCAR. SI LES PLUIES VONT CESSER SUR LA ZONE DE
L'ATTERRISSAGE, DES CUMULS DE 100 A 150 MM EN 24H, LOCALEMENT PLUS,
SONT POSSIBLES SUR LES REGIONS NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR. DES VENTS
FORTS, ATTEIGNANT LE GRAND FRAIS (30 KT), VONT SE PROPAGER DU NORD AU
SUD LE LONG DES COTES NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR. CES VENTS, ORIENTES
DE LA MER VERS LA TERRE, PEUVENT OCCASIONNER LOCALEMENT QUELQUES
SUBMERSIONS COTIERES. LES HABITANTS DES ZONES CONCERNEES(NORD-OUEST
DE MADAGASCAR ENTRE NOSY-BE ET MAINTIRANO) SONT INVITES A SE TENIR
INFORMES DE LA SUITE DES EVENEMENTS PAR LE BIAIS DES INFORMATIONS ET
RECOMMENDATIONS DES SERVICES METEOROLOGIQUES MALGACHES.

POUR LE MOZAMBIQUE, LA MENACE D'UN IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF EST EN HAUSSE
POUR LA ZONE ENTRE BEIRA AU NORD ET INHAMBANE AU SUD ET IL EST
IMPORTANT QUE L'ENSEMBLE DES HABITANTS DE LA ZONE POTENTIELLE
D'IMPACT SUIVENT LES CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES LOCALES. A PARTIR DE
VENDREDI, DE FORTES PLUIES ET DES VENTS FORTS VONT COMMENCER A
IMPACTER CERTAINES REGIONS NOTAMMENT ENTRE PEBANE ET BEIRA. LE TEMPS
EST PREVU SE DEGRADER AU SEIN DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT POTENTIEL DANS LA
NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI. LES HABITANTS DES REGIONS CENTRALES ET SUD
DU MOZAMBIQUE SONT INVITES A SUIVRE DES A PRESENT LES CONSIGNES DES
AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 200641
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/7/20202021
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/20 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 47.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 315

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/20 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 110

24H: 2021/01/21 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 110

36H: 2021/01/21 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 215 SW: 110 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 75

48H: 2021/01/22 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 95 NW: 35

60H: 2021/01/22 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 195 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 75

72H: 2021/01/23 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SW: 215 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/24 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 33.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 390 SW: 230 NW: 0

120H: 2021/01/25 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 32.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS COLLAPSED NEAR THE CENTER BUT REMAINS AT
DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
BETWEEN THE COMOROS AND THE NORTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THIS
MORNING'S ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE EXISTENCE OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN
THIS AREA AND THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 30 KT. THE
LOW LEVELS CENTER IS LOCATED WITH THE VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS MADAGASCAR DURING THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS IN A
GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER SEA LATE
NEXT NIGHT. THEN, ELOISE IS FORECAST TO KEEP A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TO
SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK WHICH SHOULD BRING IT OVER THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS
BY SATURDAY, WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RENEWS ITSELF TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A DIFFERENCE IN APPRECIATION OF THE
EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE (IN CONNECTION WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A
UPPER LEVELS TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA FROM TOMORROW EVENING) LED
TO THE 18Z RUN TO A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN TRACK BETWEEN GFS AND
YEWS THAT COULD LEAVE DOUBT ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A LANDFALL ON
MOZAMBIQUE. THE GFS/00Z RUN HAS NOW AGREED ON THE SCENARIO OF IFS
WHICH INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL OF THE TRACK PREDICTION.

ON THURSDAY, ONCE OUT TO SEA IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FRANK AND RAPID REINTENSIFICATION.
IT IS ADVISABLE TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS ON THE INTENSITY PREDICTION AFTER
AN OVERLAND TRACK THAT COULD DELAY REINTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THE
GUIDANCES ARE GENERALLY VERY REACTIVE AND SUGGEST THAT ELOISE SHOULD
REACH THE THRESHOLD OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE, OR EVEN AN INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE, BEFORE LANDING. THERE IS ALSO CONSENSUS AMONG
GUIDANCE THAT ELOISE SHOULD BECOME A LARGE ENOUGH SYSTEM FOR THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WHICH WOULD MAKE IT A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
SYSTEM.

ELOISE IS CURRENTLY GENERATING HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. IF THE RAINS ARE GOING TO STOP ON THE LANDFALL
ZONE, ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 150 MM IN 24 HOURS, LOCALLY MORE, ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH-WESTERN REGIONS OF MADAGASCAR. STRONG WINDS,
REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS (30 KT), WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THESE WINDS,
ORIENTED FROM THE SEA TO THE LAND, MAY CAUSE SOME LOCAL COASTAL
SUBMERSION. THE INHABITANTS OF THE AREAS CONCERNED (NORTH-WEST OF
MADAGASCAR BETWEEN NOSY-BE AND MAINTIRANO) ARE INVITED TO KEEP
THEMSELVES INFORMED OF THE FOLLOWING EVENTS THROUGH THE INFORMATION
AND RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE MALAGASY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES.

FOR MOZAMBIQUE, THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS INCREASING FOR
THE AREA BETWEEN BEIRA IN THE NORTH AND INHAMBANE IN THE SOUTH AND IT
IS IMPORTANT THAT ALL THE INHABITANTS OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACT ZONE
FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES. FROM FRIDAY, HEAVY
RAINS AND STRONG WINDS WILL START TO IMPACT SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN PEBANE AND BEIRA. THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
WITHIN THE POTENTIAL IMPACT ZONE DURING THE NIGHT OF FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY. THE INHABITANTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGIONS OF
MOZAMBIQUE ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL
AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 200626
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/01/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 20/01/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELOISE) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 47.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 220 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
UP TO 300 NM WITHIN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 170 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT (90 TO 100 NM FROM THE
NORTH-WESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF MADAGASCAR).
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/20 AT 18 UTC:
16.6 S / 45.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 60 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/21 AT 06 UTC:
17.5 S / 43.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 60 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 200031
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/7/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 20/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.4 S / 49.6 E
(QUINZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/01/2021 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 21/01/2021 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 21/01/2021 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE

48H: 22/01/2021 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 85 NO: 65

60H: 22/01/2021 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

72H: 23/01/2021 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 37.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 350 SO: 350 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SO: 185 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/01/2021 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 34.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

120H: 25/01/2021 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 325 SO: 165 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SO: 95 NO: 65

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
ELOISE EVOLUE SUR TERRE ET CIRCULE ACTUELLEMENT AU NORD DE LA BAIE
D'ANTONGIL. LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE SONT NETTEMENT RECHAUFFES AU COURS
DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES. LE SYSTEME GENERE PROBABLEMENT ENCORE DU
GRAND FRAIS DANS LA BAIE D'ANTONGIL AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES,
AVANT DE S'ENFONCER PLUS LOIN DANS LES TERRES.

LE SYSTEME VA TRAVERSER MADAGASCAR PENDANT PRES DE 30H EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. LA TEMPETE DEVRAIT RESSORTIR EN MER JEUDI. ENSUITE,
ELOISE GARDE UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-OUEST QUI DEVRAIT L'AMENER AU NIVEAU
DES COTES MOZAMBICAINES D'ICI CE WEEK END, ALORS QUE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE SE RENOUVELLE AU SUD-EST DU METEORE. TOUTEFOIS, EN FIN
DE PERIODE, L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE ALORS QUE DEUX SCENARIOS SE
DEGAGENT : SOIT ELOISE CONTINUE VERS LE SUD-OUEST ET IMPACTE LES
COTES MOZAMBICAINES (IFS), SOIT ELLE INCURVE VERS LE SUD A L'AVANT
D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES ET PASSE A L'EST DES COTES (GFS).

JEUDI, UNE FOIS RESSORTI EN MER DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SERONT FAVORABLES A UNE
REINTENSIFICATION FRANCHE ET RAPIDE. IL CONVIENT DE RESTER PRUDENT
SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE APRES UN SI LONG TRAJET AU-DESSUS DES
TERRES QUI POURRAIT RETARDER LA REINTENSIFICATION. CEPENDANT, LES
GUIDANCES SONT GLOBALEMENT TRES REACTIVES ET SUGGERENT QU'ELOISE
DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LE SEUIL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL, VOIRE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE, AVANT SON POSSIBLE ATTERRISSAGE.

ELOISE GENERE ACTUELLEMENT DES CONDITIONS METEOS DANGEREUSES SUR LE
NORD DE MADAGASCAR AVEC DES FORTES PLUIES POUVANT DURER PENDANT PLUS
DE 24H ET DES VENTS FORTS QUI CONCERNENT ENCORE POUR QUELQUES HEURES
LA BAIE D'ANTONGIL. DE FORTES PLUIES SONT EGALEMENT EN COURS SUR LA
POINTE NORD-OUEST DU PAYS. LES HABITANTS DES ZONES CONCERNEES SONT
INVITES A SE TENIR INFORMES DE LA SUITE DES EVENEMENTS PAR LE BIAIS
DES INFOS ET RECOMMENDATIONS DES SERVICES METEOROLOGIQUES MALGACHES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 200031
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/7/20202021
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/20 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 49.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/20 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2021/01/21 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2021/01/21 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

48H: 2021/01/22 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 65

60H: 2021/01/22 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2021/01/23 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 37.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 350 SW: 350 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/24 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 34.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2021/01/25 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 325 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 95 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
ELOISE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER LAND AND IS PASSING NORTH OF THE
ANTONGIL BAY. CLOUD TOPS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMED OVER THE LAST
6HRS. THE SYSTEM WILL STILL PORBABLY GENERATING GALE FROCE OVER THE
ANTONGIL BAY OVER THE NEXT HOURS, BEFORE TRACKING INLAND.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS MADAGASCAR DURING MORE THAN 30HRS,
FOLLOWING A SOUTH-WESTWARD TRACK STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO COME BACK OVER WATER THURSDAY. THEN, ELOISE
SHOULD KEEP ON HEADING SOUTH-WESTWARD AND NEAR THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS
BY THIS WEEK-END, AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS REBUILDING IN THE
SOUTH-EAST. HOWEVER, AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS TWO SCENARIOS ARE SUGGESTED BY THE GUIDANCE
: ELOISE COULD CONTINUE SOUTH-WESTWARD AND IMPACT THE MOZAMBICAN
COASTS (IFS), OR ITS TRACK COULD CURVE SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDES TROUGH AND PASS EAST OF THE SHORELINE (GFS).

THURSDAY, ONCE ELOISE WILL BE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR A QUICK
REINTENSIFICATION. NOTE THAT THE UNCERTAINTY ON THIS INTENSITY
FORECAST IS HIGH AFTER SUCH A LONG PASSAGE OVER LAND THAT COULD DELAY
THE REINTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT
ELOISE SHOULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY, OR EVEN THE INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE, BEFORE A POSSIBLE LANDFALL.

ELOISE CURRENTLY GENERATES DANGEROUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ON NORTHERN
MADAGASCAR WITH HEAVY RAINS THAT SHOULD LAST LONGER THAN 24 HRS AND
STRONG WINDS THAT STILL AFFECT THE ANTONGIL BAY FOR A FEW HOURS.
HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO DEVELOPPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THE INHABITANTS OF THESE REGIONS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE SITUATION THROUGH THE INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
PROVIDED BY THE MADAGASCAN WEATHER AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 200030 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/01/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 20/01/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELOISE) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 49.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP UP
TO 350 NM WITHIN THE NORTH-WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/20 AT 12 UTC:
16.1 S / 47.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2021/01/21 AT 00 UTC:
17.2 S / 45.0 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAN COAST. STRONG
WINDS WILL ABATE QUICKLY OVER SEAS IN THE NEXT HOURS. MAX WIND
FORECAST CORRECTIVE=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 200019
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/01/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 20/01/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELOISE) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 49.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP UP
TO 350 NM WITHIN THE NORTH-WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/20 AT 12 UTC:
16.1 S / 47.2 E, MAX WIND = 0 , OVERLAND DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2021/01/21 AT 00 UTC:
17.2 S / 45.0 E, MAX WIND = 0 , OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAN COAST. STRONG
WINDS WILL ABATE QUICKLY OVER SEAS IN THE NEXT HOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 50.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 50.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.8S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.7S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.7S 44.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.6S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.6S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.1S 35.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 24.9S 33.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 49.6E.
19JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262
NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY ERODED AFTER IT MADE
LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR NEAR ANTALAHA. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING LOW-CLOUD TRACING IN
THE EIR LOOP AND TRIANGULATION FROM COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS,
INCLUDING ANTALAHA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS EXTRAPOLATED
FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND DEDUCED FROM INLAND SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS. THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, DRAG ACROSS THE
ISLAND, THEN EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AROUND TAU 36, AND BY
TAU 96 WILL MAKE LANDFALL INTO SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE NORTH OF MAXIXE.
THE RUGGED MADAGASCAR TERRAIN WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE TO 30KTS BY
TAU 24; HOWEVER, AFTER IT EXITS INTO THE WARM MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, IT
WILL GRADUALLY RE-INTENSIFY TO 80KTS BEFORE LANDFALL. BY TAU 120,
LAND INTERACTION WILL REDUCE IT TO 60KTS. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
AT TAU 120, A STRAND OF MODELS INCLUDING AFUM, UEMN, AND AVNO
DEFLECT THE VORTEX SOUTHEASTWARD BACK INTO THE CHANNEL, AN UNLIKELY
SCENARIO. THE JTWC TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER INLAND AT THE TERMINATION
POINT TO OFFSET THIS UNLIKELY DEFLECTION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z
AND 202100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 191857
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/7/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 19/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.1 S / 50.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/01/2021 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 45 SO: 10 NO: 55

24H: 20/01/2021 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 21/01/2021 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 100

48H: 21/01/2021 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SO: 95 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 85 NO: 65

60H: 22/01/2021 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 315 SO: 215 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 35

72H: 22/01/2021 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 350 SO: 260 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 20 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/01/2021 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 305 SO: 260 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75

120H: 24/01/2021 18 UTC: 26.1 S / 34.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 335 SO: 490 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SO: 95 NO: 65

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
ELOISE A ATTERRI A PROXIMITE SUD DE LA VILLE COTIERE D'ANTALAHA. LA
TEMPETE A EFFECTUE UN VIRAGE VERS LE NORD AU MOMENT DE SON
ATTERRISSAGE, PROBABLEMENT EN INTERAGISSANT AVEC LE RELIEF MALGACHE.
L'IMAGE SSMIS DE 1538Z MONTRE QUE LA STRUCTURE DU SYSTEME S'ETAIT
ENCORE RENFORCEE AU MOMENT DE L'ATTERRISSAGE AVEC LA CONSTITUTION
D'UN ANNEAU DE CONVECTION INTERNE. LE STADE MAXIMAL DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICAL A PROBABLEMENT ETE ATTEINT. DESORMAIS, ELOISE S'ENFONCE DANS
LES TERRES EN S'AFFAIBLISSANT.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT TRAVERSER MADAGASCAR PENDANT PRES DE 30H EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. LA TEMPETE DEVRAIT RESSORTIR EN MER JEUDI. ENSUITE,
ELOISE GARDE UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-OUEST QUI DEVRAIT L'AMENER AU NIVEAU
DES COTES MOZAMBICAINES D'ICI CE WEEK END. TOUTEFOIS, EN FIN DE
PERIODE, L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE ALORS QUE DEUX SCENARIOS SE DEGAGENT
: SOIT ELOISE CONTINUE VERS LE SUD-OUEST ET IMPACTE LES COTES
MOZAMBICAINES, SOIT ELLE INCURVE VERS LE SUD A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG
DES MOYENNES LATITUDES ET PASSE A L'EST DES COTES.

JEUDI, UNE FOIS RESSORTI EN MER DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SERONT FAVORABLES A UNE
REINTENSIFICATION FRANCHE ET RAPIDE. IL CONVIENT DE RESTER PRUDENT
SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE APRES UN SI LONG TRAJET AU-DESSUS DES
TERRES QUI POURRAIT RETARDER LA REINTENSIFICATION. CEPENDANT, LA
PLUPART DES GUIDANCES SUGGERENT QU'ELOISE DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LE SEUIL
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL, VOIRE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE, AVANT SON
POSSIBLE ATTERRISSAGE.

ELOISE GENERE ACTUELLEMENT DES CONDITIONS METEOS DANGEREUSES SUR LE
NORD DE MADAGASCAR AVEC DES FORTES PLUIES POUVANT DURER PENDANT PLUS
DE 24H ET DES VENTS FORTS QUI CONCERNENT ENCORE LA COTE NORD-EST. DE
FORTES PLUIES SONT EGALEMENT ATTENDUES SUR LA POINTE NORD-OUEST DU
PAYS. LA HOULE EST ESTIMEE A 4M, VOIRE 6M MAX. LA SURCOTE AFFECTE
PRINCIPALEMENT LA BAIE DE ANTONGIL, AVEC DES ESTIMATIONS DE L'ORDRE
D'1M. LES HABITANTS DES ZONES CONCERNEES SONT INVITES A SE TENIR
INFORMES DE LA SUITE DES EVENEMENTS PAR LE BIAIS DES INFOS ET
RECOMMENDATIONS DES SERVICES METEOROLOGIQUES MALGACHES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 191857
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/7/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/19 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 50.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/20 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 45 SW: 10 NW: 55

24H: 2021/01/20 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2021/01/21 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 100

48H: 2021/01/21 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 95 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 65

60H: 2021/01/22 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 315 SW: 215 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 35

72H: 2021/01/22 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 350 SW: 260 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 20 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/23 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75

120H: 2021/01/24 18 UTC: 26.1 S / 34.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 335 SW: 490 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 95 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
ELOISE MADE LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF ANTALAHA. THE STORM TURNED
NORTHWARD AS IT MADE LANDFALL, PROBABLY IN INTERACTION WITH THE
MOUNTAINOUS MADAGASCAN TERRAIN. THE 1538Z SSMIS MW IMAGE REVEALED
THAT THE INNER STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS REINFORCED BY THE TIME IT
REACHED THE SHORE, WITH A WELL DEFINED INNER CONVECTION RING ON 91GHZ
IMAGE. THE MAX STAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WAS PROBABLY REACHED.
NOW, ELOISE IS TRACKING INLAND WHILE WEAKENING.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS MADAGASCAR DURING MORE THAN 30HRS,
FOLLOWING A SOUTH-WESTWARD TRACK STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO COME BACK OVER WATER THURSDAY. THEN, ELOISE
SHOULD KEEP ON HEADING SOUTH-WESTWARD AND NEAR THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS
BY THIS WEEK-END. HOWEVER, AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS TWO SCENARIOS ARE SUGGESTED BY THE GUIDANCE
: ELOISE COULD CONTINUE SOUTH-WESTWARD AND IMPACT THE MOZAMBICAN
COASTS, OR ITS TRACK COULD CURVE SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDES
TROUGH AND PASS EAST OF THE SHORELINE.

THURSDAY, ONCE ELOISE WILL BE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR A QUICK
REINTENSIFICATION. NOTE THAT THE UNCERTAINTY ON THIS INTENSITY
FORECAST IS HIGH AFTER SUCH A LONG PASSAGE OVER LAND THAT COULD DELAY
THE REINTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT
ELOISE SHOULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY, OR EVEN THE INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE, BEFORE A POSSIBLE LANDFALL.

ELOISE CURRENTLY GENERATED DANGEROUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ON NORTHERN
MADAGASCAR WITH HEAVY RAINS THAT CAN LAST MORE THAN 24 HRS AND STRONG
WINDS THAT STILL AFFECT THE NORTH-EASTERN COAST. HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE
WELL ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 4M TO 6M MAX. THE STORM SURGE MAINLY
AFFECTS THE ANTONGIL BAY, WITH ESTIMATES OF 1M. THE INHABITANTS OF
THESE REGIONS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION THROUGH
THE INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDATIONS PROVIDED BY THE MADAGASCAN
WEATHER AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 191822
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/01/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 19/01/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 50.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/20 AT 06 UTC:
15.6 S / 48.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 5 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/20 AT 18 UTC:
16.6 S / 46.3 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAN COAST. STRONG
WINDS WILL ABATE QUICKLY OVER SEAS IN THE NEXT HOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 191351
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/7/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 19/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 50.8 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 31 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/01/2021 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 30 SO: 20 NO: 35

24H: 20/01/2021 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 21/01/2021 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 21/01/2021 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 55

60H: 22/01/2021 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 35

72H: 22/01/2021 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SO: 270 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/01/2021 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 350 SO: 250 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 75

120H: 24/01/2021 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 215 NO: 95

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.0

LE CENTRE DE CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES, BIEN VISIBLE CE MATIN, A
ETE PROGRESSIVEMENT RECOUVERT PAR L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE QUI A REPRIS
DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. CETTE REPRISE DE L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE EST CONFIRMEE PAR LES DONNES MICRO-ONDE GPM DE 1026Z , QUI
DE PLUS CONFIRMENT ENCORE LA PRESENCE D'UN OEIL DE BASSES COUCHES
BIEN DESSINE, ET MOINS BIEN DEFINI EN ALTITUDE. AU COURS DES 6 DERNIA
RES HEURES LE RVM A EGALEMENT DIMINUA . AU VU DE CES ELEMENTS ET DES
ANALYSES OBJECTIVES (DONNEES COMPLETES DE LA PASSE ASCAT-B DE 0606Z)
PLAIDENT POUR UNE LEGERE AUGMENTATION DE L'INTENSITA DES VENTS DE
L'ORDRE DE 55KT, JUSTE AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE D'ELOISE SUR LA PENINSULE
DE MASOALA.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, ELOISE CONTINUE SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION
DU SUD-OUEST ET DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE.
SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, ELOISE EST ACTUELLEMENT SUR LE POINT DE
RENTRER EN CONTACT AVEC LA PENINSULE DE MASOALA, AU SUD D'ANTALAHA.
ELOISE VA TRANSISTER ENSUITE SUR TERRE PENDANT PRES DE 30 HEURES,
POUR RESSORTIR SUR MER, EN JOURNA E DE JEUDI, TOUJOURS SUR LA FACE
NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, ELOISE
GARDE UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-OUEST QUI DEVRAIT L'AMENER AU NIVEAU DES
COTES MOZAMBICAINES A ECHEANCE DE 5 JOURS. TOUTEFOIS, EN FIN DE
PERIODE, L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE QUANT A LA TRAJECTOIRE FINALE: SOIT
ELOISE EST EVACUEE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES DANS UN FLUX DE
NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG, SOIT ELLE EST REPRISE DANS UN FLUX
DE SUD-EST EN MARGE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. CES DEUX SCENARIOS
SONT REPRESENTES PAR LES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE: JEUDI, UNE FOIS RESSORTI EN MER DANS LE CANAL
DU MOZAMBIQUE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT FAVORABLES A UNE
REINTENSIFICATION FRANCHE ET RAPIDE. IL CONVIENT DE RESTER PRUDENT
SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE A CES LONGUES ECHEANCES, MAIS EN SUIVANT
LA PLUPART DES GUIDANCES, ELOISE DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LE SEUIL DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL, VOIRE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE, AVANT UN
ATTERRISSAGE POSSIBLE SUR LES COTES MOZAMBICAINES.

A TRES COURTES ECHEANCES, ELOISE SE DEFINIT COMME UN SYSTEME
DANGEREUX POUR MADAGASCAR AVEC DES FORTES PLUIES POUVANT DURER
PENDANT PLUS DE 24H ET DES VENTS FORTS QUI CONCERNERONT D'ABORD LA
COTE NORD-EST DE MADAGASCAR. L'ACTIVITE PLUVIEUSE SERA AUSSI PRESENTE
SUR LA POINTE NORD-OUEST DU PAYS. DES PHENOMENES DE VAGUES ET DE
SURCOTE ASSOCIES SE PRODUIRONT. DES VAGUES D'UNE HAUTEUR PROBABLE DE
L'ORDRE DE 4M SONT ATTENDUE POUVANT ATTEINDRE AU MAXIMUM UNE HAUTEUR
DE 6M. LES SURCOTES SERONT PRINCIPALEMENT MARQUEES DANS LA BAIE DE
ANTONGIL, DE L'ORDRE DE 1M. LES HABITANTS DES ZONES CONCERNEES SONT
INVITES A SE TENIR INFORMES DE LA SUITE DES EVENEMENTS PAR LE BIAIS
DES SERVICES METEOROLOGIQUES MALGACHES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 191351
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/7/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 50.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 31 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/20 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 30 SW: 20 NW: 35

24H: 2021/01/20 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2021/01/21 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2021/01/21 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 55

60H: 2021/01/22 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 35

72H: 2021/01/22 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SW: 270 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/23 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 350 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75

120H: 2021/01/24 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.0


THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, CLEARLY VISIBLE THIS MORNING, WAS
GRADUALLY COVERED BY THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT RESUMED IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THIS RESUMPTION OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS CONFIRMED BY THE MICROWAVE GPM DATA OF 1026Z, WHICH
FURTHER CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL EYE, LESS
WELL DEFINED IN ALTITUDE. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS THE RVM HAS ALSO
DECREASED. ACCORDING TO THESE ELEMENTS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
(COMPLETE DATA OF THE ASCAT-B SWATH OF 0606Z) ARGUE FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE OF WIND INTENSITY OF ABOUT 55KT, JUST BEFORE ELOISE'S
LANDING ON THE MASOALA PENINSULA.

IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY, ELOISE CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
AND SHOULD CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON THE
NORTHWEST FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ON THIS TRAJECTORY, ELOISE
IS ABOUT TO LANDFALL THE MASSOALA PENINSULA, SOUTH OF ANTALAHA.
ELOISE WILL THEN TRACK INLAND FOR NEARLY 30 HOURS, TO COME BACK ON
SEA, ON THURSDAY, STILL ON THE NORTHWESTERN FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AT LONGER RANGE, ELOISE KEEPS A SOUTH-WESTERN TRAJECTORY WHICH
SHOULD BRING HER TO THE LEVEL OF THE MOZAMBICAN COAST IN 5 DAYS.
HOWEVER, AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS TO
THE FINAL TRAJECTORY: EITHER ELOISE IS EVACUATED TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES IN A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW IN FRONT OF A TROUGH, OR IT IS
CAUGHT BACK IN A SOUTH-EASTERLY FLOW AT THE MARGIN OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THESE TWO SCENARIOS ARE REPRESENTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY: THURSDAY, ONCE OUT AT SEA IN THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A RAPID
REINTENSIFICATION. IT IS NECESSARY TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS ON THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AT TAU 120. ACCORDING TO MOST GUIDANCE, ELOISE
SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE, OR EVEN AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE, BEFORE A POSSIBLE LANDING ON THE MOZAMBICAN COAST.

APPROACHING MADAGASCAR, ELOISE IS DEFINED AS A DANGEROUS SYSTEM WITH
HEAVY RAINS THAT CAN LAST FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS AND STRONG WINDS
THAT WILL FIRST CONCERN THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE RAINY
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE PRESENT ON THE NORTH-WESTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. HEAVY SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH SURGE WILL OCCUR. WAVES
HEIHT ABOUT 4M TO 6M ARE EXPECTED. THE SURGE WILL BE MAINLY MARKED IN
THE BAY OF ANTONGIL, AROUND 1M. THE INHABITANTS OF THE CONCERNED
ZONES ARE INVITED TO KEEP INFORMED, THROUGH THE MALAGASY
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 191233 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/01/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 19/01/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 50.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 210 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER AND EXTENDING UP
TO 420 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 210 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/20 AT 00 UTC:
15.6 S / 49.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 10 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/20 AT 12 UTC:
16.3 S / 47.1 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 191227
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/01/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 19/01/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 51.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 210 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER AND EXTENDING UP
TO 420 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40
NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 210 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/19 AT 18 UTC:
15.5 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/20 AT 06 UTC:
15.9 S / 48.2 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 14.5S 51.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 51.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 14.9S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.4S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.2S 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.3S 44.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.2S 40.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.4S 37.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 23.6S 34.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 51.3E.
19JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ELOISE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
358NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
AROUND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. BASED ON THE MSI AND A
190608Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KTS BASED
ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0-3.5 (45-
55 KTS) AND A 190608Z METOP-B PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE WITH A SWATH OF 45-
50 KT WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
OVERALL MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 12S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN THE
NEAR TERM, TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN
MADAGASCAR BY TAU 12 THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 30 KTS AS IT TRANSITS
ACROSS THE RUGGED ISLAND TERRAIN BEFORE EXITING OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL NEAR TAU 54. THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WILL
ENABLE TC 12S TO STEADILY RE-INTENSIFY TO 70 KTS PRIOR TO MAKING
FINAL LANDFALL NEAR MAXIXE IN SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
OF NOTE, THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE TRACKERS MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM ALONG
A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERN TRACK THAN THE OTHER CONSENSUS
MODELS. THE 19/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTION SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, LENDING OVERALL
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 190757
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/7/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 19/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.6 S / 51.8 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SO: NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/01/2021 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 20/01/2021 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 20/01/2021 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 21/01/2021 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 75 SO: 130 NO: 110

60H: 21/01/2021 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 95

72H: 22/01/2021 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 325 SO: 270 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SO: 175 NO: 130

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/01/2021 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 500 SO: 335 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 335 SO: 315 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

120H: 24/01/2021 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 34.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 555 SO: 360 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 390 SO: 350 NO: 175

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A EVOLUE:
LA CONFIGURATION MIGRE PROGRESSIVEMENT EN CONFIGURATION EN OEIL
(ASSEZ MAL DEFINI) MAIS LES SOMMETS SE SONT NETTEMENT RECHAUFFES. LES
DONNEES MICRO-ONDE SSMIS DE 0303Z MONTRENT UN OEIL QUI SE STRUCTURE
EN BASSES COUCHES MAIS ENCORE PEU EN ALTITUDE. CES ELEMENTS ET ET LES
ANALYSES OBJECTIVES PLAIDENT POUR UNE INTENSITA DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE
DE 50KT.

CES DERNIERES HEURES ELOISE A INFLA CHI LEGEREMENT SA TRAJECTOIRE EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST. ELOISE VA POURSUIVRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE.
SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, ELOISE DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE MADAGASCAR DANS LA
SOIRA E, VOIRE DANS LA NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI, AU NIVEAU DE LA
PRESQU'ILE DE MASOALA. TRANSISTANT ENSUITE SUR TERRE PENDANT PRES DE
30HEURES, LE SYSTEME VA RESSORTIR SUR MER TOUJOURS SUR LA FACE
NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, ELOISE
GARDE UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-OUEST QUI DEVRAIT L'AMENER AU NIVEAU DES
COTES MOZAMBICAINES A ECHEANCE DE 5 JOURS.

AU COURS DE CETTE JOURNEE DE MARDI ET AVANT LE PROCHAIN ATTERRISSAGE,
LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES REDEVIENNENT FAVORABLES : LE
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR DEVIENT MOINS PRESENT QUE LES JOURS
PRECEDENTS ET LE SYSTEME RETROUVE DE L'AIR HUMIDE EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE RESTE BONNE DANS LE QUADRANT
NORD-OUEST. DANS CES CONDITIONS, ELOISE DEVRAIT S'INTENSIFIER
LEGEREMENT AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE. LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL RESTE
ENCORE POSSIBLE. JEUDI, UNE FOIS RESSORTI SUR MER DANS LE CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT FAVORABLES A UNE
REINTENSIFICATION RAPIDE. IL CONVIENT DE RESTER PRUDENT SUR LA
PREVISION D'INTENSITE A CES LONGUES ECHEANCES, MAIS EN SUIVANT LA
PLUPART DES GUIDANCES, ELOISE DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LE SEUIL DE CYCLONE,
VOIRE DE CYCLONE INTENSE, AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES
MOZAMBICAINES.

EN APPROCHE DE MADAGASCAR, ELOISE SE DEFINIT COMME UN SYSTEME
DANGEREUX AVEC DES FORTES PLUIES POUVANT DURER PENDANT PLUS DE 24H ET
DES VENTS FORTS QUI CONCERNERONT D'ABORD LA COTE NORD-EST DE
MADAGASCAR. L'ACTIVITE PLUVIEUSE SERA AUSSI PRESENTE SUR LA POINTE
NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR. DES PHENOMENES DE VAGUES ET DE SURCOTE
ASSOCIES SE PRODUIRONT. DES VAGUES D'UNE HAUTEUR PROBABLE DE L'ORDRE
DE 4M SONT ATTENDUE POUVANT ATTEINDRE AU MAXIMUM UNE HAUTEUR DE 6M.
LES SURCOTES SERONT PRINCIPALEMENT MARQUEES PAR LA BAIE DE ANTONGIL,
DE L'ORDRE DE 1M. LES HABITANTS DES ZONES CONCERNEES SONT INVITES A
SE TENIR INFORMER DE LA SUITE DES EVENEMENTS PAR LE BIAIS DES
SERVICES METEOROLOGIQUES MALGACHES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 190757
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/7/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/19 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 51.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/19 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2021/01/20 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2021/01/20 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2021/01/21 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 75 SW: 130 NW: 110

60H: 2021/01/21 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 95

72H: 2021/01/22 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 175 NW: 130

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/23 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 500 SW: 335 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 335 SW: 315 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

120H: 2021/01/24 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 34.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 555 SW: 360 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 390 SW: 350 NW: 175

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5


DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS EVOLVED: THE
CONFIGURATION IS GRADUALLY MIGRATING TO AN EYE PATTERN (RATHER BADLY
DEFINED) BUT THE TOPS HAVE WARMED UP SIGNIFICANTLY. THE MICROWAVE
DATA OF 0303Z SHOW AN EYE THAT IS STRUCTURED IN LOW LLEVELS BUT STILL
WEAK IN ALTITUDE. ACCORDING TO THESE ELEMENTS AND THE OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES THE WIND INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50KT.

N THE LAST FEW HOURS, ELOISE HAS SLIGHTLY CHANGED ITS COURSE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST. ELOISE WILL CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION ON THE NORTHWEST FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ON THIS
TRAJECTORY, ELOISE SHOULD REACH MADAGASCAR IN THE EVENING, OR EVEN
DURING THE NIGHT FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, AT THE LEVEL OF THE
MASOALA PENINSULA. TRANSITING THEN ON LAND FOR NEARLY 30 HOURS, THE
SYSTEM WILL COME OUT ON SEA STILL ON THE NORTHWEST FACE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AT THE LONGER RANGE, ELOISE KEEPS A SOUTH-WESTERN
TRAJECTORY WHICH SHOULD BRING IT TO THE LEVEL OF THE MOZAMBICAN
COASTS AT THE END OF 5 DAYS.

DURING TUESDAY AND BEFORE THE NEXT LANDING, THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS BECOME AGAIN CONDUCIVE: THE WIND SHEAR BECOMES LESS
PRESENT THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE SYSTEM FINDS HUMID AIR IN
AVERAGE TROPOSPHERE. THE UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD IN THE
NORTH-WEST QUADRANT. IN THESE CONDITIONS, ELOISE SHOULD INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY BEFORE LANDING. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS STILL
POSSIBLE. ON THURSDAY, ONCE OUT TO SEA IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A RAPID REINTENSIFICATION.
CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED IN FORECASTING INTENSITY OVER THESE LONG
RANGE, BUT FOLLOWING MOST GUIDANCE, ELOISE SHOULD REACH THE THRESHOLD
OF A CYCLONE, OR EVEN AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, BEFORE LANDING ON
THE MOZAMBICAN COAST.

APPROACHING MADAGASCAR, ELOISE IS DEFINED AS A DANGEROUS SYSTEM WITH
HEAVY RAINS THAT CAN LAST FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS AND STRONG WINDS
THAT WILL FIRST CONCERN THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE RAINY
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE PRESENT ON THE NORTH-WESTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. PHENOMENA OF WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURGE WILL OCCUR. WAVES
OF A PROBABLE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4M ARE EXPECTED TO REACH A MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF 6M. THE SURGE WILL BE MAINLY MARKED BY THE BAY OF ANTANGIL,
AROUND 1M. THE INHABITANTS OF THE CONCERNED ZONES ARE INVITED TO BE
INFORMED OF THE CONTINUATION OF THE EVENTS THROUGH THE MALAGASY
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 190651
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/01/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 19/01/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 51.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 110 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER AND EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40
NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 210 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/19 AT 18 UTC:
15.5 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/20 AT 06 UTC:
15.9 S / 48.2 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 190023
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/7/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 19/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.3 S / 52.6 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SO: NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/01/2021 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 140 SO: 85 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 20/01/2021 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SO: 75 NO: 55

36H: 20/01/2021 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 21/01/2021 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 21/01/2021 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 95

72H: 22/01/2021 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 250 SO: 175 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/01/2021 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 350 SO: 240 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SO: 205 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

120H: 24/01/2021 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 335 SO: 175 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 70 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A EVOLUE :
AVEC DES SOMMETS QUI SE SONT RECHAUFFES MAIS UNE CONFIGURATION QUI
MIGRE PROGRESSIVEMENT EN CONFIGURATION EN OEIL MAL DEFINI, ELOISE
PRESENTE DES SIGNES D'INTENSIFICATION. LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDE GMI DE
2110UTC MONTRENT QUASIMENT UN OEIL CE QUI PLAIDE POUR LE PASSAGE AU
SEUIL DE FORTE TEMEPTE TROPICALE. UNE ANALYSE DVORAK DE 3.5 PERMET
AUSSI D'ESTIMER DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 50KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT PAR RAPPORT A LA PREVISION PRECEDENTE. ELOISE VA
POURSUIVRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE
NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, ELOISE
DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE MADAGASCAR AUJOURD'HUI EN COURS D'APRES-MIDI AU
NIVEAU DE LA PRESQU'ILE DE MASOALA. TRANSISTANT ENSUITE SUR TERRE
PENDANT PRES DE 30HEURES, LE SYSTEME VA RESSORTIR SUR MER TOUJOURS
SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. A PLUS LONGUE
ECHEANCE, ELOISE GARDE UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-OUEST QUI DEVRAIT L'AMENER
AU NIVEAU DES COTES AFRICAINES A ECHEANCE DE 5 JOURS.

AU COURS DE CETTE JOURNEE DE MARDI ET AVANT LE PROCHAIN ATTERRISSAGE,
LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT MITIGEES : LE CISAILLEMENT
DE SECTEUR EST RESTE OMNIPRESENT AVEC DE L'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE PRESENT SUR UNE BONNE PARTIE DE LA CIRCULATION DE ELOISE
A L'EXCEPTION DU SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE RESTE
BONNE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST. DANS CES CONDITIONS, ELOISE
DEVRAIT RESTER AU SEUIL DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE AVANT SON
ATTERRISSAGE. A ECHEANCE DE JEUDI, UNE FOIS RESSORTIE SUR MER DANS LE
CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT TOUT A
FAIT FAVORABLES A UNE REINTENSIFICATION RAPIDE. IL CONVIENT DE RESTER
PRUDENT SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE A CES LONGUES ECHEANCES, MAIS EN
SUIVANT LA PLUPART DES GUIDANCES, ELOISE DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LE SEUIL
DE CYCLONE AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES AFRICAINES.

EN APPROCHE DE MADAGASCAR, ELOISE SE DEFINIT COMME UN SYSTEME
DANGEREUX AVEC DES FORTES PLUIES POUVANT DURER PENDANT PLUS DE 24H ET
DES VENTS FORTS QUI CONCERNERONT D'ABORD LA COTE NORD-EST DE
MADAGASCAR. L'ACTIVITE PLUVIEUSE SERA AUSSI PRESENTE SUR LA POINTE
NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR. DES PHENOMENES DE VAGUES ET DE SURCOTE
ASSOCIES SE PRODUIRONT. DES VAGUES D'UNE HAUTEUR PROBABLE DE L'ORDRE
DE 4M SONT ATTENDUE POUVANT ATTEINDRE AU MAXIMUM UNE HAUTEUR DE 6M.
LES SURCOTES SERONT PRINCIPALEMENT MARQUEES PAR LA BAIE DE ANTANGIL.
LES HABITANTS DES ZONES CONCERNEES SONT INVITES A SE TENIR INFORMER
DE LA SUITE DES EVENEMENTS PAR LE BIAIS DES SERVICES METEOROLOGIQUES
MALGACHES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 190023
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/7/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 52.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/19 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2021/01/20 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SW: 75 NW: 55

36H: 2021/01/20 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2021/01/21 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2021/01/21 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 95

72H: 2021/01/22 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 250 SW: 175 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/23 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 350 SW: 240 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

120H: 2021/01/24 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 335 SW: 175 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS EVOLVED: WITH PEAKS THAT
HAVE WARMED UP BUT A PATTERN THAT IS GRADUALLY MIGRATING INTO AN
ILL-DEFINED EYE CONFIGURATION, ELOISE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
INTENSIFICATION. GMI MICROWAVE DATA FROM 2110UTC SHOWS ALMOST AN EYE
WHICH PLEADS FOR THE PASSAGE TO THE THRESHOLD OF STRONG TROPICAL
STORM. A DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 3.5 ALSO ALLOWS TO ESTIMATE WINDS OF THE
ORDER OF 50KT.

NO CHANGE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ELOISE WILL CONTINUE IN
A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WEST DIRECTION ON THE NORTH-WEST FACE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ON THIS TRACK, ELOISE SHOULD REACH MADAGASCAR
TODAY IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE MASOALA PENINSULA. TRANSITING THEN ON
LAND FOR NEARLY 30 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL COME OUT ON SEA STILL ON
THE NORTHWESTERN FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AT THE LONGER TIME,
ELOISE KEEPS A SOUTH-WESTERN TRACK WHICH SHOULD BRING IT TO THE LEVEL
OF THE AFRICAN COASTS AT THE END OF 5 DAYS.

DURING THIS DAY ON TUESDAY AND BEFORE THE NEXT LANDING, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN MIXED: EASTERN SECTOR SHEAR REMAINS OMNIPRESENT
WITH DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE PRESENT OVER A GOOD PART OF
ELOISE'S CIRCULATION EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR. THE ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. IN THESE
CONDITIONS, ELOISE SHOULD REMAIN AT THE THRESHOLD OF A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDING. BY THURSDAY, ONCE IT HAS EMERGED OVER
THE SEA IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR RAPID REINTENSIFICATION. IT IS ADVISABLE TO REMAIN
CAUTIOUS ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT THESE LONG INTERVALS, BUT
FOLLOWING MOST OF THE GUIDELINES, ELOISE SHOULD REACH THE CYCLONE
THRESHOLD BEFORE LANDING ON THE AFRICAN COAST.

APPROACHING MADAGASCAR, ELOISE IS DEFINED AS A DANGEROUS SYSTEM WITH
HEAVY RAINS THAT CAN LAST FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS AND STRONG WINDS
THAT WILL FIRST CONCERN THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE RAINY
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE PRESENT ON THE NORTH-WESTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. PHENOMENA OF WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURGE WILL OCCUR. WAVES
OF A PROBABLE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4M ARE EXPECTED TO REACH A MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF 6M. THE SURGE WILL BE MAINLY MARKED BY THE BAY OF ANTANGIL.
THE INHABITANTS OF THE CONCERNED ZONES ARE INVITED TO BE INFORMED OF
THE CONTINUATION OF THE EVENTS THROUGH THE MALAGASY METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 190008
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/01/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 19/01/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 52.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 70NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER AND EXTENDING UP TO
220 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40
NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 210 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/19 AT 12 UTC:
15.1 S / 51.1 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/20 AT 00 UTC:
15.8 S / 49.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 14.1S 53.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 53.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 14.9S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.2S 49.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.5S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.1S 46.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.2S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.0S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.0S 35.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 52.6E.
18JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 428
NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY WARMED UP;
HOWEVER, RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO TIGHTLY WRAP INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS PARTLY OBSCURED BY THE CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR
LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50KTS IS AVERAGED FROM AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS (PGTW) AND T3.5/55KTS (FMEE). ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
WARM SST (29-30C) OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TC 12S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST, MAKING LANDFALL OVER
NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR BY TAU 18, DRAG ACROSS THE ISLAND, THEN EXIT
INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AROUND TAU 66 AND BY TAU 120 WILL BE
POISED TO MAKE A FINAL LANDFALL INTO SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE NORTH OF
MAXIXE. THE RUGGED MADAGASCAR TERRAIN WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE TO
30KTS BY TAU 48; HOWEVER, AFTER IT EXITS INTO THE WARM MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, IT WILL GRADUALLY RE-INTENSIFY TO 60KTS BEFORE FINAL
LANDFALL. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 181848
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/7/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 18/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.1 S / 53.0 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SO: 390 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 185

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/01/2021 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SO: 205 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 45 SO: 75 NO: 35

24H: 19/01/2021 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 100 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 20/01/2021 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 20/01/2021 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 21/01/2021 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

72H: 21/01/2021 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 335 SO: 250 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 85 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/01/2021 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 415 SO: 390 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75

120H: 23/01/2021 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 34.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 325 SO: 195 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 80 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 40

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EVOLUE
PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS UNE CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE LAISSANT UNE
ANALYSE DVORAK PROCHE DE 3.5-. LES DONNEES SCATSAT DE 1630UTC
FOURNISSENT DES VENTS ATTEIGNANT LES 45KT DANS LE SECTEUR NORD DE
ELOISE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK PERMET UNE ESTIMATION DE L'ORDRE DE 45KT
LAISSANT ELOISE AU SEUIL SUPERIEUR DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE.
ETANT DANS UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION, ELOISE NE DEVRAIT PLUS TARDER
A PASSER LE SEUIL DES 50KT.

LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE 1253UTC ONT PERMIS DE RELOCALISER
LE SYSTEME UN PEU PLUS AU NORD PAR RAPPORT A LA PRECEDENTE PREVISION
DU CMRS. LE SYSTEME VA TOUTEFOIS POURSUIVRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
QUI L'AFFAIBLIT TEMPORAIREMENT. UNE ACCELERATION EST AUSSI ATTENDUE
AVANCANT LA DATE D'ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR DE PRES DE 6HEURES.
TRANSISTANT ENSUITE SUR TERRE PENDANT PRES DE 24HEURES, LE SYSTEME VA
RESSORTIR SUR MER TOUJOURS SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-OUEST, ELOISE DEVRAIT
ATTEINDRE LES COTES AFRICAINES A ECHEANCE DE 5 JOURS.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
MITIGEES LAISSANT ELOISE AVEC UN POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION MODESTE.
LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR EST RESTE OMNIPRESENT AVEC DE L'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PRESENT EN BORDURE EST DE LA CIRCULATION PENDANT
QUE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE RESTE BONNE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST.
DANS CES CONDITIONS, ELOISE DEVRAIT RESTER AU SEUIL DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE. A ECHEANCE DE JEUDI, UNE FOIS
RESSORTIE SUR MER DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT TOUT A FAIT FAVORABLES A UNE REINTENSIFICATION
RAPIDE.

EN APPROCHE DE MADAGASCAR, ELOISE SE DEFINIT COMME UN SYSTEME
DANGEREUX AVEC DES FORTES PLUIES, DES VENTS FORTS ET DES PHENOMENES
DE VAGUE ET SURCOTE ASSOCIES. LES HABITANTS SONT INVITES A SE TENIR
INFORMER DE LA SUITE DES EVENEMENTS PAR LE BIAIS DES SERVICES
METEOROLOGIQUES MALGACHES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 181848
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/7/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 53.0 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SW: 390 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 185

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/19 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 45 SW: 75 NW: 35

24H: 2021/01/19 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2021/01/20 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2021/01/20 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2021/01/21 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

72H: 2021/01/21 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 335 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 85 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/22 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 415 SW: 390 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75

120H: 2021/01/23 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 34.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 325 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION PROGRESSIVELY EVOLVES
TOWARDS A CURVED BAND CONFIGURATION LEAVING A DVORAK ANALYSIS CLOSE
TO 3.5-. SCATSAT DATA FROM 1630UTC PROVIDE WINDS REACHING 45KT IN THE
NORTHERN SECTOR OF ELOISE. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS ALLOWS AN ESTIMATION
OF 45KT LEAVING ELOISE AT THE UPPER THRESHOLD OF A MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM. BEING IN A PHASE OF INTENSIFICATION, ELOISE SHOULD NOT BE LONG
IN PASSING THE 50KT THRESHOLD.

THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGES OF 1253UTC ALLOWED TO RELOCATE THE SYSTEM A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF THE RSMC. THE
SYSTEM WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON
THE NORTHWESTERN FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH TEMPORARILY
WEAKENS IT. AN ACCELERATION IS ALSO AWAITED ADVANCING THE DATE OF
LANDING ON MADAGASCAR OF NEARLY 6 HOURS. TRANSITING THEN ON LAND FOR
NEARLY 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL COME BACK TO SEA STILL ON THE
NORTHWESTERN FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ON THIS SOUTH-WEST TRACK,
ELOISE SHOULD REACH THE AFRICAN COAST WITHIN 5 DAYS.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MIXED,
LEAVING ELOISE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MODEST INTENSIFICATION. EASTERLY
SHEAR REMAINS OMNIPRESENT WITH DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE
PRESENT AT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION WHILE ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS, ELOISE SHOULD REMAIN AT THE THRESHOLD OF A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDING. BY THURSDAY, ONCE IT EMERGES INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR RAPID REINTENSIFICATION.

ON APPROACH TO MADAGASCAR, ELOISE IS DEFINED AS A DANGEROUS SYSTEM
WITH HEAVY RAINS, STRONG WINDS AND ASSOCIATED WAVE AND SURGE
PHENOMENA. THE INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO KEEP THEMSELVES INFORMED OF
THE NEXT EVENTS THROUGH THE MALAGASY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 181816
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 18/01/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 53.0 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER AND EXTENDING UP TO
240 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/19 AT 06 UTC:
14.7 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/19 AT 18 UTC:
15.6 S / 49.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 181423 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CORRECTIF CONCERNANT TAU48
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/7/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 18/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.4 S / 54.7 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SO: 390 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 185

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/01/2021 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SO: 205 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 140

24H: 19/01/2021 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 100

36H: 20/01/2021 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 30 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 20/01/2021 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 21/01/2021 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 21/01/2021 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 110

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/01/2021 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 400 SO: 215 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 100 NO: 35

120H: 23/01/2021 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 415 SO: 260 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SO: 175 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 30 SO: 50 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

PEU DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE QUI RESTE CISAILLEE
AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES AVEC UN CENTRE, LOCALISE A L'AIDE DE
LA DERNIERE PASSE SCATSAT DE 04H30UTC ET DE L'IMAGERIE SATELLITE, EN
BORDURE SUD-EST DE LA CONVECTION PRINCIPALE. CELLE-CI EST TRES
VIGOUREUSE AVEC DES SOMMETS FROIDS A -85C ET UNE ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE
SPORADIQUE.
L'INTENSITE EST REMONTEE A 40 KT EN ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES
SUBJECTIIVES DE DVORAK ET DES DONNEES DE LA PASSE SSCATSAT.




AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
MITIGA ES. LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR EST RESTE OMNIPRESENT AVEC DE
L'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PRESENT EN BORDURE EST DE LA
CIRCULATION PENDANT QUE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE RESTE BONNE DANS LE
QUADRANT NORD-OUEST.

L'AUGMENTATION DE LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME DANS LE MEME
SENS QUE LE CISAILLEMENT A UN PEU REDUIT L'IMPACT DE CELUI-CI SUR LE
SYSTEME, PERMETTANT UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI SOIR, LA CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DEVRAIT FAIBLIR,
D'ABORD EN ALTITUDE PUIS EN MOYENNE TROPO.
LE DEVELOPPEMENT D'ELOISE POURRAIT ALORS S'ACCELERER AVANT
L'ATTERRISSAGE COMME SUGGERE CERTAINS MODELES. LE DEGRE DE CONFIANCE
DANS CETTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE.

JEUDI EN COURS DE JOURNEE, ELOISE DEVRAIT RESSORTIR EN MER SUR LE
CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. UNE NOUVELLE REINTENSIFICATION EST ENVISAGEE
DANS DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES.

LE SYSTEME EST PREVU POURSUIVRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE EN PHASE AVEC LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG
AU SUD QUI AFFAIBLIT TEMPORAIREMENT LA DORSALE.
CEPENDANT, LA DORSALE SE RECONSTRUIT DES MERCREDI, CE QUI DEVRAIT
EMPECHER ELOISE DE PLONGER VERITABLEMENT AU SUD. LA DISPERSION DE
L'ENSEMBLE EUROPEEN ET DES DETERMINISTES EST PLUS FAIBLE QUE LA
NORMALE, CE QUI DONNE UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS CETTE PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE.

LE RISQUE DE VENTS FORTS, DE FORTES PLUIES ET D'INONDATION COTIERE
EST PRESENT POUR LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR PARTICULIEREMENT POUR LES
ZONES COTIERES ENTRE SAMBAVA AU NORD ET TAMATAVE AU SUD. BIEN QUE
MOINS PROBABLE AU VUE DES DERNIERES PREVISIONS, ON NE PEUT EXCLURE UN
ATTERRISSAGE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.

MESSAGES CLES SUR LES IMPACTS SUR MADAGASCAR:

- FORTES PLUIES: C'EST LE DANGER PRINCIPAL ASSOCIE A CE SYSTEME.
ELLES VONT COMMENCER A ABORDER LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR EN FIN DE
NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI OU MARDI MATIN. MARDI ET MERCREDI, DES CUMULS
DE PLUIES GENERALISEES A PRES DE 200 A 300 MM/24H VOIRE LOCALEMENT
400 MM SONT ATTENDUES A PROXIMITA DE LA ZONE ATTERRISSAGE, SOIT SUR
LES REGIONS ENTOURANT LA BAIE D'ANTONGIL.
ELLES SE PROPAGERONT ENSUITE MERCREDI ET JEUDI DANS L'INTERIEUR DES
TERRES LE LONG DE LA TRAJECTOIRE DE ELOISE AINSI QUE SUR LES REGIONS
NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR OU LE PASSAGE D'ELOISE VA ACTIVER LA MOUSSON
DE NORD-OUEST. DES CUMULS DE PLUIES GENERALISEES A 100 MM / 24H SONT
ATTENDUS SUR CES ZONES ATTEIGNANT PLUS DE 200 MM EN 24H PAR ENDROITS.
CES FORTES PLUIES PEUVENT GENERER DES CRUES ECLAIRS, DES INONDATIONS
ET DES GLISSEMENTS DE TERRAIN.

- VENTS FORTS: IL Y A UN RISQUE EN HAUSSE DE VENTS FORTS AVEC DES
RAFALES POUVANT ATTEINDRE LES 100 KM/H ET ASSOCIEES A DES DOMMAGES
MATERIELS. CES VENTS FORTS POURRAIENT COMMENCER A TOUCHER LA COTE
MARDI APRES-MIDI OU LA NUIT SUIVANTE. DES VENTS PLUS FORTS SONT
POSSIBLES PRES DU LIEU OU ELOISE VA ATTERIR EN FONCTION DE
L'INTENSITE FINALE DU SYSTEME A CE MOMENT LA.

- VAGUE ET SURCOTE: LA HOULE ASSOCIEE A CE SYSTEME, TRES MODEREE AU
MOINS DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS A 2M50-3M, VA COMMENCER A DEFERLER SUR
LES REGIONS COTIERES LA NUIT PROCHAINE OU DEMAIN MATIN.
SUR LA BASE DE LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE ACTUELLE ET DES INCERTITUDES
QUI LUI SONT ASSOCIEES, LE SCENARIO LE PLUS PROBABLE TABLE POUR
L'INSTANT SUR DES SURCOTES INFERIEURES A 1M LE LONG DE LA ZONE
POTENTIELLE D'IMPACT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 181423 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
CORRECTIVE ABOUT TAU48
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/7/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4 S / 54.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SW: 390 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 185

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/19 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 140

24H: 2021/01/19 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 100

36H: 2021/01/20 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 30 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2021/01/20 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2021/01/21 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2021/01/21 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 110

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/22 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 400 SW: 215 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 100 NW: 35

120H: 2021/01/23 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 415 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 175 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 30 SW: 50 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN THAT HAS REMAINED SHEARED DURING
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH A CENTER, LOCATED WITH THE HELP OF THE LAST
SCATSAT DATA AND THE SATELLITE IMAGERY, AT THE SOUTH-EASTERN EDGE OF
THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS VIGOROUS OVERNIGHT
WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND BURST OF LIGHTNING.
THE INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED AT 40 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
LAST SCATSAT DATA AND DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES.

INCREASING THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM MOVEMENT IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS
THE SHEAR HAS SLIGHTLY REDUCED THE IMPACT OF THE SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM,
ALLOWING A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
FROM MONDAY EVENING, THE SHEAR CONSTRAINT COULD EASE OFF, FIRST IN
THE UPPER LEVELS THEN AT THE MID-LEVELS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ELOISE COULD ACCELERATE BEFORE LADNFALL AS SUGGESTED
BY SOME MODELS. THE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS INTENSITY PREDICTION
IS LOW.

LATE THURSDAY, ELOISE SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA ON THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. A NEW INTENSIFICATION PHASE IS AWAITED WITHIN CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON HEADING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE
NORTH-WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW/MID-LEVEL SUTROPICAL RIDGE AND IN PHASE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH IN THE SOUTH WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY
WEAKEN THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER, THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS BACK UP AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY WHICH
SOULD PREVENT ELOISE FROM SIGNIFICANTLY DIVING SOUTHWARDS. THE EURO
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DISPERSION IS WEAKER THAN NORMAL,
WHICH YIELDS A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.

THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG WINDS, FLOODS AND STORM SURGE OVER SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF EASTERN MADAGASCAR MAINLY BETWEEN SAMBAVA TO THE
NORTH AND TAMATAVE TO THE SOUTH. A LANDFALL AT TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY REMAINS A REAL POSSIBILITY, ALTHOUGH LESS LIKELY BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE.

KEY MESSAGES ON ASSOCIATED HAZARDS OVER MADAGASCAR:

-HEAVY RAINS: THIS IS THE MAIN DANGER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF MADAGASCAR LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 200 TO 300 MM/24H OR
EVEN 400 MM LOCALLY ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE LANDING ZONE, I.E. IN THE
REGIONS SURROUNDING THE BAY OF ANTONGIL.
THOSE HEAVY RAINS WILL THEN SPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY INLAND
ALONG ELOISE'S TRACK AND OVER LARGE PART OF NORTH-WESTERN REGIONS OF
MADAGASCAR, WHERE THE PASSAGE OF ELOISE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE
MONSOON RAINS. GENERALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNT UP TO 100 MM / 24H ARE
EXPECTED ON THESE AREAS REACHING MORE THAN 200 MM / 24H IN SOME
PLACES.
THESE HEAVY RAINS CAN GENERATE FLASH FLOODS, WIDESPREAD FLOODINGS AND
LANDSLIDES.

- STRONG WINDS: THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF STRONG WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 100 KM/H THAT CAN CAUSE DAMAGE TO LIFE AND PROPERTIES.
THESE STRONG WINDS COULD START TO REACH THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OR TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL SYSTEM INTENSITY AT THAT TIME.

- WAVE AND STORM SURGE: THE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, VERY
MODERATE AT LEAST INITIALLY AT 2M50-3M, WILL START TO AFFECT PORTION
OF COASTAL REGIONS LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
BASED ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTIES, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING IS BASED
ON STORM SURGE OF LESS THAN 1M ALONG THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL AREA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 181224
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/7/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 18/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.4 S / 54.7 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SO: 390 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 185

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/01/2021 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SO: 205 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 140

24H: 19/01/2021 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 100

36H: 20/01/2021 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 30 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 20/01/2021 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 21/01/2021 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 21/01/2021 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 110

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/01/2021 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 400 SO: 215 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 100 NO: 35

120H: 23/01/2021 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 415 SO: 260 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SO: 175 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 30 SO: 50 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

PEU DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE QUI RESTE CISAILLEE
AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES AVEC UN CENTRE, LOCALISE A L'AIDE DE
LA DERNIERE PASSE SCATSAT DE 04H30UTC ET DE L'IMAGERIE SATELLITE, EN
BORDURE SUD-EST DE LA CONVECTION PRINCIPALE. CELLE-CI EST TRES
VIGOUREUSE AVEC DES SOMMETS FROIDS A -85C ET UNE ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE
SPORADIQUE.
L'INTENSITE EST REMONTEE A 40 KT EN ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES
SUBJECTIIVES DE DVORAK ET DES DONNEES DE LA PASSE SSCATSAT.




AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
MITIGA ES. LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR EST RESTE OMNIPRESENT AVEC DE
L'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PRESENT EN BORDURE EST DE LA
CIRCULATION PENDANT QUE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE RESTE BONNE DANS LE
QUADRANT NORD-OUEST.

L'AUGMENTATION DE LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME DANS LE MEME
SENS QUE LE CISAILLEMENT A UN PEU REDUIT L'IMPACT DE CELUI-CI SUR LE
SYSTEME, PERMETTANT UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI SOIR, LA CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DEVRAIT FAIBLIR,
D'ABORD EN ALTITUDE PUIS EN MOYENNE TROPO.
LE DEVELOPPEMENT D'ELOISE POURRAIT ALORS S'ACCELERER AVANT
L'ATTERRISSAGE COMME SUGGERE CERTAINS MODELES. LE DEGRE DE CONFIANCE
DANS CETTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE.

JEUDI EN COURS DE JOURNEE, ELOISE DEVRAIT RESSORTIR EN MER SUR LE
CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. UNE NOUVELLE REINTENSIFICATION EST ENVISAGEE
DANS DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES.

LE SYSTEME EST PREVU POURSUIVRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE EN PHASE AVEC LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG
AU SUD QUI AFFAIBLIT TEMPORAIREMENT LA DORSALE.
CEPENDANT, LA DORSALE SE RECONSTRUIT DES MERCREDI, CE QUI DEVRAIT
EMPECHER ELOISE DE PLONGER VERITABLEMENT AU SUD. LA DISPERSION DE
L'ENSEMBLE EUROPEEN ET DES DETERMINISTES EST PLUS FAIBLE QUE LA
NORMALE, CE QUI DONNE UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS CETTE PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE.

LE RISQUE DE VENTS FORTS, DE FORTES PLUIES ET D'INONDATION COTIERE
EST PRESENT POUR LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR PARTICULIEREMENT POUR LES
ZONES COTIERES ENTRE SAMBAVA AU NORD ET TAMATAVE AU SUD. BIEN QUE
MOINS PROBABLE AU VUE DES DERNIERES PREVISIONS, ON NE PEUT EXCLURE UN
ATTERRISSAGE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.

MESSAGES CLES SUR LES IMPACTS SUR MADAGASCAR:

- FORTES PLUIES: C'EST LE DANGER PRINCIPAL ASSOCIE A CE SYSTEME.
ELLES VONT COMMENCER A ABORDER LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR EN FIN DE
NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI OU MARDI MATIN. MARDI ET MERCREDI, DES CUMULS
DE PLUIES GENERALISEES A PRES DE 200 A 300 MM/24H VOIRE LOCALEMENT
400 MM SONT ATTENDUES A PROXIMITA DE LA ZONE ATTERRISSAGE, SOIT SUR
LES REGIONS ENTOURANT LA BAIE D'ANTONGIL.
ELLES SE PROPAGERONT ENSUITE MERCREDI ET JEUDI DANS L'INTERIEUR DES
TERRES LE LONG DE LA TRAJECTOIRE DE ELOISE AINSI QUE SUR LES REGIONS
NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR OU LE PASSAGE D'ELOISE VA ACTIVER LA MOUSSON
DE NORD-OUEST. DES CUMULS DE PLUIES GENERALISEES A 100 MM / 24H SONT
ATTENDUS SUR CES ZONES ATTEIGNANT PLUS DE 200 MM EN 24H PAR ENDROITS.
CES FORTES PLUIES PEUVENT GENERER DES CRUES ECLAIRS, DES INONDATIONS
ET DES GLISSEMENTS DE TERRAIN.

- VENTS FORTS: IL Y A UN RISQUE EN HAUSSE DE VENTS FORTS AVEC DES
RAFALES POUVANT ATTEINDRE LES 100 KM/H ET ASSOCIEES A DES DOMMAGES
MATERIELS. CES VENTS FORTS POURRAIENT COMMENCER A TOUCHER LA COTE
MARDI APRES-MIDI OU LA NUIT SUIVANTE. DES VENTS PLUS FORTS SONT
POSSIBLES PRES DU LIEU OU ELOISE VA ATTERIR EN FONCTION DE
L'INTENSITE FINALE DU SYSTEME A CE MOMENT LA.

- VAGUE ET SURCOTE: LA HOULE ASSOCIEE A CE SYSTEME, TRES MODEREE AU
MOINS DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS A 2M50-3M, VA COMMENCER A DEFERLER SUR
LES REGIONS COTIERES LA NUIT PROCHAINE OU DEMAIN MATIN.
SUR LA BASE DE LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE ACTUELLE ET DES INCERTITUDES
QUI LUI SONT ASSOCIEES, LE SCENARIO LE PLUS PROBABLE TABLE POUR
L'INSTANT SUR DES SURCOTES INFERIEURES A 1M LE LONG DE LA ZONE
POTENTIELLE D'IMPACT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 181224
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/7/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4 S / 54.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SW: 390 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 185

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/19 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 140

24H: 2021/01/19 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 100

36H: 2021/01/20 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 30 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2021/01/20 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2021/01/21 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2021/01/21 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 110

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/22 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 400 SW: 215 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 100 NW: 35

120H: 2021/01/23 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 415 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 175 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 30 SW: 50 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN THAT HAS REMAINED SHEARED DURING
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH A CENTER, LOCATED WITH THE HELP OF THE LAST
SCATSAT DATA AND THE SATELLITE IMAGERY, AT THE SOUTH-EASTERN EDGE OF
THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS VIGOROUS OVERNIGHT
WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND BURST OF LIGHTNING.
THE INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED AT 40 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
LAST SCATSAT DATA AND DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES.

INCREASING THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM MOVEMENT IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS
THE SHEAR HAS SLIGHTLY REDUCED THE IMPACT OF THE SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM,
ALLOWING A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
FROM MONDAY EVENING, THE SHEAR CONSTRAINT COULD EASE OFF, FIRST IN
THE UPPER LEVELS THEN AT THE MID-LEVELS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ELOISE COULD ACCELERATE BEFORE LADNFALL AS SUGGESTED
BY SOME MODELS. THE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS INTENSITY PREDICTION
IS LOW.

LATE THURSDAY, ELOISE SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA ON THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. A NEW INTENSIFICATION PHASE IS AWAITED WITHIN CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON HEADING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE
NORTH-WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW/MID-LEVEL SUTROPICAL RIDGE AND IN PHASE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH IN THE SOUTH WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY
WEAKEN THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER, THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS BACK UP AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY WHICH
SOULD PREVENT ELOISE FROM SIGNIFICANTLY DIVING SOUTHWARDS. THE EURO
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DISPERSION IS WEAKER THAN NORMAL,
WHICH YIELDS A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.

THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG WINDS, FLOODS AND STORM SURGE OVER SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF EASTERN MADAGASCAR MAINLY BETWEEN SAMBAVA TO THE
NORTH AND TAMATAVE TO THE SOUTH. A LANDFALL AT TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY REMAINS A REAL POSSIBILITY, ALTHOUGH LESS LIKELY BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE.

KEY MESSAGES ON ASSOCIATED HAZARDS OVER MADAGASCAR:

-HEAVY RAINS: THIS IS THE MAIN DANGER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF MADAGASCAR LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 200 TO 300 MM/24H OR
EVEN 400 MM LOCALLY ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE LANDING ZONE, I.E. IN THE
REGIONS SURROUNDING THE BAY OF ANTONGIL.
THOSE HEAVY RAINS WILL THEN SPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY INLAND
ALONG ELOISE'S TRACK AND OVER LARGE PART OF NORTH-WESTERN REGIONS OF
MADAGASCAR, WHERE THE PASSAGE OF ELOISE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE
MONSOON RAINS. GENERALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNT UP TO 100 MM / 24H ARE
EXPECTED ON THESE AREAS REACHING MORE THAN 200 MM / 24H IN SOME
PLACES.
THESE HEAVY RAINS CAN GENERATE FLASH FLOODS, WIDESPREAD FLOODINGS AND
LANDSLIDES.

- STRONG WINDS: THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF STRONG WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 100 KM/H THAT CAN CAUSE DAMAGE TO LIFE AND PROPERTIES.
THESE STRONG WINDS COULD START TO REACH THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OR TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL SYSTEM INTENSITY AT THAT TIME.

- WAVE AND STORM SURGE: THE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, VERY
MODERATE AT LEAST INITIALLY AT 2M50-3M, WILL START TO AFFECT PORTION
OF COASTAL REGIONS LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
BASED ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTIES, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING IS BASED
ON STORM SURGE OF LESS THAN 1M ALONG THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL AREA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 181213
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 18/01/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4 S / 54.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/19 AT 00 UTC:
15.2 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 75 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/19 AT 12 UTC:
15.8 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 55 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 13.7S 56.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 56.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.5S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.1S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.5S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.8S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.0S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.9S 41.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.7S 37.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 56.0E.
18JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ELOISE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
386 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) OBSCURED UNDER THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION. AN 180321Z MHS 89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD LLCC WITH A CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND
DISPLACED OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES (29-30C). TC 12S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFUM, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 130-170NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
FROM TAU 96 TO TAU 120. CONSEQUENTLY, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGH. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AS IT APPROACHES THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER
MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48, AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, TC 12S IS FORECAST TO
RE-INTENSIFY AS IT EMERGES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
182100Z AND 190900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 180631
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/7/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 18/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.2 S / 56.7 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE SIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 425 SO: 425 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 240 NO: 110

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/01/2021 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 140

24H: 19/01/2021 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SO: 175 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 110

36H: 19/01/2021 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 45

48H: 20/01/2021 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 20 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 20/01/2021 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 21/01/2021 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 130

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/01/2021 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 325 SO: 195 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 205 SO: 85 NO: 45

120H: 23/01/2021 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 325 SO: 315 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 70 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5;CI=2.5

PEU DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE QUI RESTE CISAILLEE
AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES AVEC UN CENTRE, LOCALISE A L'AIDE DE
L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDE, EN BORDURE SUD-EST DE LA CONVECTION
PRINCIPALE. CELLE-CI EST TRES VIGOUREUSE AVEC DES SOMMETS FROIDS A
-85C ET UNE ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE SPORADIQUE. EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES
OBJECTIVES, L'INTENSITE EST LAISSEE A 35 KT EN ACCORD AVEC LES
ANALYSES SUBJECTIIVES DE DVORAK MAIS EN-DESSOUS DES ESTIMATIONS
OBJECTIVES QUI SONT A PRES DE 45 KT.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
MITIGA ES. LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR EST RESTE OMNIPRESENT AVEC DE
L'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PRESENT EN BORDURE EST DE LA
CIRCULATION PENDANT QUE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE RESTE BONNE DANS LE
QUADRANT NORD-OUEST. DANS CE CONTEXTE, UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUTOT
LENTE DU SYSTEME EST ENVISAGEE EN ACCORD AVEC LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES
NUMERIQUES.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI SOIR, LA CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DEVRAIT FAIBLIR,
D'ABORD EN ALTITUDE PUIS EN MOYENNE TROPO. LE DEVELOPPEMENT D'ELOISE
POURRAIT ALORS S'ACCELERER AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE COMME SUGGERE
CERTAINS MODELES. LE DEGRE DE CONFIANCE DANS CETTE PREVISION
D'INTENSITE RESTE RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE.

JEUDI EN FIN DE JOURNEE, ELOISE DEVRAIT RESSORTIR EN MER SUR LE CANAL
DU MOZAMBIQUE. UNE NOUVELLE REINTENSIFICATION EST ENVISAGEE DANS DES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES.

LE SYSTEME EST PREVU POURSUIVRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. MARDI, LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG AU SUD
AFFAIBLIT TEMPORAIREMENT LA DORSALE ET POURRAIT PILOTER UNE LEGERE
INFLEXION DE LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. CEPENDANT, LA DORSALE
SE RECONSTRUIT DES MERCREDI, CE QUI DEVRAIT EMPECHER ELOISE DE
PLONGER VERITABLEMENT AU SUD. LA DISPERSION DE L'ENSEMBLE EUROPEEN ET
DES DETERMINISTES EST PLUS FAIBLE QUE LA NORMALE, CE QUI DONNE UNE
BONNE CONFIANCE DANS CETTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE.

LE RISQUE DE VENTS FORTS, DE FORTES PLUIES ET D'INONDATION COTIERE
EST PRESENT POUR LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR PARTICULIEREMENT POUR LES
ZONES COTIERES ENTRE SAMBAVA AU NORD ET TAMATAVE AU SUD. BIEN QUE
MOINS PROBABLE AU VUE DES DERNIERES PREVISIONS, ON NE PEUT EXCLURE UN
ATTERRISSAGE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.

MESSAGES CLES SUR LES IMPACTS SUR MADAGASCAR:

- FORTES PLUIES: C'EST LE DANGER PRINCIPAL ASSOCIE A CE SYSTEME.
ELLES VONT COMMENCER A ABORDER LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR EN FIN DE
NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI OU MARDI MATIN. ELLES SE PROPAGERONT ENSUITE
MERCREDI ET JEUDI DANS L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES LE LONG DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE ELOISE AINSI QUE SUR LES REGIONS NORD-OUEST DE
MADAGASCAR OU LE PASSAGE D'ELOISE VA ACTIVER LA MOUSSON DE
NORD-OUEST. DES CUMULS DE PLUIES GENERALISEES A 100 MM / 24H SONT
ATTENDUS SUR CES ZONES ATTEIGNANT PLUS DE 200 MM EN 24H PAR ENDROITS.
CES FORTES PLUIES PEUVENT GENERER DES CRUES ECLAIRS, DES INONDATIONS
ET DES GLISSEMENTS DE TERRAIN.

- VENTS FORTS: IL Y A UN RISQUE EN HAUSSE DE VENTS FORTS AVEC DES
RAFALES POUVANT ATTEINDRE LES 100 KM/H ET ASSOCIEES A DES DOMMAGES
MATERIELS. CES VENTS FORTS POURRAIENT COMMENCER A TOUCHER LA COTE
MARDI APRES-MIDI OU LA NUIT SUIVANTE. DES VENTS PLUS FORTS SONT
POSSIBLES PRES DU LIEU OU ELOISE VA ATTERIR EN FONCTION DE
L'INTENSITE FINALE DU SYSTEME A CE MOMENT LA.

- VAGUE ET SURCOTE: LA HOULE ASSOCIEE A CE SYSTEME, TRES MODEREE AU
MOINS DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS A 2M50-3M, VA COMMENCER A DEFERLER SUR
LES REGIONS COTIERES LA NUIT PROCHAINE OU DEMAIN MATIN.
SUR LA BASE DE LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE ACTUELLE ET DES INCERTITUDES
QUI LUI SONT ASSOCIEES, LE SCENARIO LE PLUS PROBABLE TABLE POUR
L'INSTANT SUR DES SURCOTES INFERIEURES A 1M LE LONG DE LA ZONE
POTENTIELLE D'IMPACT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 180631
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/7/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 56.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 425 SW: 425 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 240 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/18 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 140

24H: 2021/01/19 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 110

36H: 2021/01/19 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 45

48H: 2021/01/20 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 20 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2021/01/20 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2021/01/21 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 130

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/22 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 325 SW: 195 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 205 SW: 85 NW: 45

120H: 2021/01/23 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 325 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5;CI=2.5

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN THAT HAS REMAINED SHEARED DURING
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH A CENTER, LOCATED WITH THE HELP OF MICROWAVE
IMAGERY, AT THE SOUTH-EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS VIGOROUS OVERNIGHT WITH VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS AND BURST OF LIGHTNING. IN THE ABSENCE OF OBJECTIVE DATA, THE
INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE
ANALYSES BUT BELOW THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES WHICH ARE NEAR 45 KT.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
AMBIVALENT. THE EASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS OMNIPRESENT WITH
MID-TROPOSPHERE DRY AIR LOCATED IN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
CIRCULATION, WHILE THE UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. IN THIS CONTEXT, A SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. FROM
MONDAY EVENING, THE SHEAR CONSTRAINT COULD EASE OFF, FIRST IN THE
UPPER LEVELS THEN AT THE MID-LEVELS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ELOISE COULD ACCELERATE BEFORE LADNFALL AS SUGGESTED BY SOME MODELS.
THE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS INTENSITY PREDICTION IS LOW.

LATE THURSDAY, ELOISE SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA ON THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. A NEW INTENSIFICATION PHASE IS AWAITED WITHIN CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON HEADING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE
NORTH-WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW/MID-LEVEL SUTROPICAL RIDGE. TUESDAY,
THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH IN THE SOUTH WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE
RIDGE AND COULD DRIVE A SLIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD INFLECTION OF THE TRACK.
HOWEVER, THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS BACK UP AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY WHICH
SOULD PREVENT ELOISE FROM SIGNIFICANTLY DIVING SOUTHWARDS. THE EURO
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DISPERSION IS WEAKER THAN NORMAL,
WHICH YIELDS A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.

THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG WINDS, FLOODS AND STORM SURGE OVER SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF EASTERN MADAGASCAR MAINLY BETWEEN SAMBAVA TO THE
NORTH AND TAMATAVE TO THE SOUTH. A LANDFALL AT TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY REMAINS A REAL POSSIBILITY, ALTHOUGH LESS LIKELY BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE.

KEY MESSAGES ON ASSOCIATED HAZARDS OVER MADAGASCAR:

-HEAVY RAINS: THIS IS THE MAIN DANGER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF MADAGASCAR LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING.THOSE HEAVY RAINS
WILL THEN SPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY INLAND ALONG ELOISE'S
TRACK AND OVER LARGE PART OF NORTH-WESTERN REGIONS OF MADAGASCAR,
WHERE THE PASSAGE OF ELOISE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE MONSOON RAINS.
GENERALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNT UP TO 100 MM / 24H ARE EXPECTED ON THESE
AREAS REACHING MORE THAN 200 MM / 24H IN SOME PLACES.
THESE HEAVY RAINS CAN GENERATE FLASH FLOODS, WIDESPREAD FLOODINGS AND
LANDSLIDES.

- STRONG WINDS: THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF STRONG WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 100 KM/H THAT CAN CAUSE DAMAGE TO LIFE AND PROPERTIES.
THESE STRONG WINDS COULD START TO REACH THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OR TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL SYSTEM INTENSITY AT THAT TIME.

- WAVE AND STORM SURGE: THE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, VERY
MODERATE AT LEAST INITIALLY AT 2M50-3M, WILL START TO AFFECT PORTION
OF COASTAL REGIONS LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
BASED ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTIES, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING IS BASED
ON STORM SURGE OF LESS THAN 1M ALONG THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL AREA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 180611
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 18/01/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 56.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 60
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 145 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/18 AT 18 UTC:
14.9 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 75 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/19 AT 06 UTC:
15.7 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 60 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 180059
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/7/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 18/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.4 S / 58.4 E
(TREIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 425 SO: 425 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 185 NO: 110

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/01/2021 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 155 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 85

24H: 19/01/2021 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 185 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 65 NO: 100

36H: 19/01/2021 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 110

48H: 20/01/2021 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 30 SO: 55 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 10 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 20/01/2021 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 21/01/2021 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/01/2021 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SO: 165 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 165 SO: 100 NO: 55

120H: 23/01/2021 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 37.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 350 SO: 285 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SO: 100 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 40

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5;CI=2.5

PEU DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE QUI RESTE CISAILLEE
AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES AVEC UN CENTRE, LOCALISE A L'AIDE DE
L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDE, EN BORDURE SUD-EST DE LA CONVECTION
PRINCIPALE. CELLE-CI EST TRES VIGOUREUSE AVEC DES SOMMETS FROIDS A
-85C ET UNE ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE SPORADIQUE. EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES
OBJECTIVES, L'INTENSITE EST LAISSEE A 35 KT EN ACCORD AVEC LES
ANALYSES SUBJECTIIVES DE DVORAK MAIS EN-DESSOUS DES ESTIMATIONS
OBJECTIVES QUI SONT A PRES DE 45 KT.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
MITIGA ES. LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR EST RESTE OMNIPRESENT AVEC DE
L'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PRESENT EN BORDURE EST DE LA
CIRCULATION PENDANT QUE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE RESTE BONNE DANS LE
QUADRANT NORD-OUEST. DANS CE CONTEXTE, UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUTOT
LENTE DU SYSTEME EST ENVISAGEE EN ACCORD AVEC LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES
NUMERIQUES. A PARTIR DE LUNDI SOIR, LA CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DEVRAIT
FAIBLIR, D'ABORD EN ALTITUDE PUIS EN MOYENNE TROPO. LE DEVELOPPEMENT
D'ELOISE POURRAIT ALORS S'ACCELERER AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE COMME
SUGGERE CERTAINS MODELES (HWRF, ARPEGE, UKMO). LE DEGRE DE CONFIANCE
DANS CETTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE.JEUDI EN
FIN DE JOURNEE OU NUIT SUIVANTE, ELOISE DEVRAIT RESSORTIR EN MER SUR
LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. UNE NOUVELLE REINTENSIFICATION EST ENVISAGEE
DANS DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES.

LE SYSTEME EST PREVU POURSUIVRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. MARDI, LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG AU SUD
AFFAIBLIT TEMPORAIREMENT LA DORSALE ET POURRAIT PILOTER UNE LEGERE
INFLEXION DE LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. CEPENDANT, LA DORSALE
SE RECONSTRUIT DES MERCREDI, CE QUI DEVRAIT EMPECHER ELOISE DE
PLONGER VERITABLEMENT AU SUD. LA DISPERSION DE L'ENSEMBLE EUROPEEN ET
DES DETERMINISTES EST PLUS FAIBLE QUE LA NORMALE, CE QUI DONNE UNE
BONNE CONFIANCE DANS CETTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE.

LE RISQUE DE VENTS FORTS, DE FORTES PLUIES ET D'INONDATION COTIERE
EST PRESENT POUR LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR PARTICULIEREMENT POUR LES
ZONES COTIERES ENTRE ANTALAHA AU NORD ET TAMATAVE AU SUD. BIEN QUE
MOINS PROBABLE AU VUE DES DERNIERES PREVISIONS, ON NE PEUT EXCLURE UN
ATTERRISSAGE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.

MESSAGES CLES SUR LES IMPACTS SUR MADAGASCAR:

- FORTES PLUIES: C'EST LE DANGER PRINCIPAL ASSOCIE A CE SYSTEME.
ELLES VONT COMMENCER A ABORDER LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR EN FIN DE
NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI OU MARDI MATIN. ELLES SE PROPAGERONT ENSUITE
MERCREDI ET JEUDI DANS L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES LE LONG DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE ELOISE AINSI QUE SUR LES REGIONS NORD-OUEST DE
MADAGASCAR OU LE PASSAGE D'ELOISE VA ACTIVER LA MOUSSON DE
NORD-OUEST. DES CUMULS DE PLUIES GENERALISEES A 100 MM / 24H SONT
ATTENDUS SUR CES ZONES ATTEIGNANT PLUS DE 200 MM EN 24H PAR ENDROITS.
CES FORTES PLUIES PEUVENT GENERER DES CRUES ECLAIRS, DES INONDATIONS
ET DES GLISSEMENTS DE TERRAIN.

- VENTS FORTS: IL Y A UN RISQUE EN HAUSSE DE VENTS FORTS AVEC DES
RAFALES POUVANT ATTEINDRE LES 100 KM/H AT ASSOCIEES A DES DOMMAGES
MATERIELS. CES VENTS FORTS POURRAIENT COMMENCER A TOUCHER LA COTE
MARDI APRES-MIDI OU LA NUIT SUIVANTE. DES VENTS PLUS FORTS SONT
POSSIBLES PRES DU LIEU OU ELOISE VA ATTERIR EN FONCTION DE
L'INTENSITE FINALE DU SYSTEME A CE MOMENT LA.

- VAGUE ET SURCOTE: LA HOULE ASSOCIEE A CE SYSTEME, TRES MODEREE AU
MOINS DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS A 2M50-3M, VA COMMENCER A DEFERLER SUR
LES REGIONS COTIERES LA NUIT PROCHAINE OU DEMAIN MATIN.
SUR LA BASE DE LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE ACTUELLE ET DES INCERTITUDES
QUI LUI SONT ASSOCIEES, LE SCENARIO LE PLUS PROBABLE TABLE POUR
L'INSTANT SUR DES SURCOTES INFERIEURES A 1M LE LONG DE LA ZONE
POTENTIELLE D'IMPACT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 180059
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/7/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4 S / 58.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 425 SW: 425 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/18 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 85

24H: 2021/01/19 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 100

36H: 2021/01/19 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 110

48H: 2021/01/20 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 30 SW: 55 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 10 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2021/01/20 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2021/01/21 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/22 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 55

120H: 2021/01/23 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 37.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 350 SW: 285 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SW: 100 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5;CI=2.5

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN THAT HAS REMAINED SHEARED DURING
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH A CENTER, LOCATED WITH THE HELP OF MICROWAVE
IMAGERY, AT THE SOUTH-EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS VIGOROUS OVERNIGHT WITH VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS AND BURST OF LIGHTNING. IN THE ABSENCE OF OBJECTIVE DATA, THE
INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE
ANALYSES BUT BELOW THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES WHICH ARE NEAR 45 KT.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
AMBIVALENT. THE EASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS OMNIPRESENT WITH
MID-TROPOSPHERE DRY AIR LOCATED IN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
CIRCULATION, WHILE THE UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. IN THIS CONTEXT, A SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. FROM
MONDAY EVENING, THE SHEAR CONSTRAINT COULD EASE OFF, FIRST IN THE
UPPER LEVELS THEN AT THE MID-LEVELS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ELOISE COULD ACCELERATE BEFORE LADNFALL AS SUGGESTED BY SOME MODELS
(HWRF, ARPEGE, UKMO). THE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS INTENSITY
PREDICTION IS LOW. LATE THURSDAY, ELOISE SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA ON
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. A NEW INTENSIFICATION PHASE IS AWAITED WITHIN
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON HEADING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE
NORTH-WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW/MID-LEVEL SUTROPICAL RIDGE. TUESDAY,
THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH IN THE SOUTH WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE
RIDGE AND COULD DRIVE A SLIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD INFLECTION OF THE TRACK.
HOWEVER, THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS BACK UP AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY WHICH
SOULD PREVENT ELOISE FROM SIGNIFICANTLY DIVING SOUTHWARDS. THE EURO
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DISPERSION IS WEAKER THAN NORMAL,
WHICH YIELDS A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.

THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG WINDS, FLOODS AND STORM SURGE OVER SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF EASTERN MADAGASCAR MAINLY BETWEEN ANTALAHA TO THE
NORTH AND TAMATAVE TO THE SOUTH. A LANDFALL AT TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY REMAINS A REAL POSSIBILITY, ALTHOUGH LESS LIKELY BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE.

KEY MESSAGES ON ASSOCIATED HAZARDS OVER MADAGASCAR:

-HEAVY RAINS: THIS IS THE MAIN DANGER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF MADAGASCAR LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING.THOSE HEAVY RAINS
WILL THEN SPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY INLAND ALONG ELOISE'S
TRACK AND OVER LARGE PART OF NORTH-WESTERN REGIONS OF MADAGASCAR,
WHERE THE PASSAGE OF ELOISE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE MONSOON RAINS.
GENERALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNT UP TO 100 MM / 24H ARE EXPECTED ON THESE
AREAS REACHING MORE THAN 200 MM / 24H IN SOME PLACES.
THESE HEAVY RAINS CAN GENERATE FLASH FLOODS, WIDESPREAD FLOODINGS AND
LANDSLIDES.

- STRONG WINDS: THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF STRONG WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 100 KM/H THAT CAN CAUSE DAMAGE TO LIFE AND PROPERTIES.
THESE STRONG WINDS COULD START TO REACH THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OR TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL SYSTEM INTENSITY AT THAT TIME.

- WAVE AND STORM SURGE: THE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, VERY
MODERATE AT LEAST INITIALLY AT 2M50-3M, WILL START TO AFFECT PORTION
OF COASTAL REGIONS LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
BASED ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTIES, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING IS BASED
ON STORM SURGE OF LESS THAN 1M ALONG THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL AREA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 180043
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 18/01/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4 S / 58.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 60
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 145 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/18 AT 12 UTC:
13.9 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/19 AT 00 UTC:
15.0 S / 53.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 55 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 13.2S 59.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 59.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.5S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.3S 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.0S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.6S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.0S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.7S 43.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.0S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 59.0E.
17JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SYMMETRIC MASS OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
WHICH IS SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 171740Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED SHALLOW
BUT DEFINED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING THE LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE NORTHWEST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE,
HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5
(35 KTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND FMEE, IN LIGHT OF AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.1
AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 48 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR
CENTERED TO THE SOUTH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 48 ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR.
SOME SLIGHT MODIFCATIONS IN THE TRACK CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM
CROSSES MADAGASCAR BUT THE OVERALL STEERING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN STEADY FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. AS INDICATED BY THE
SHARP UPSTREAM EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT, PROVIDING FOR MODERATE (15-25 KTS) VWS AND LIMITED
OUTFLOW. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE WARM (28-29C) BUT THE COMBINATION OF
LIMITED DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VWS WILL RESULT IN SLOW
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM GAINS
LATITUDE IT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE BAND OF STRONG EASTERLIES CURRENTLY
INHIBITING STRENGTHENING, ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A
POINT SOURCE OR ANTICYCLONE OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM AROUND TAU 48. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BURST OF INTENSIFICATION JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL,
WITH A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS EXPECTED AT TAU 48. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF DEVELOPMENT OF THIS POINT SOURCE ALOFT, THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TC 12S IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR BY
TAU 96 BUT THEN RAPIDLY RE-INTENSIFY AFTER IT REEMERGES INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AROUND TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH 80NM SPREAD AT TAU 48, INCREASING TO 140NM AT TAU 120,
LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180900Z AND 182100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//NNNN
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 171901
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/7/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 17/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.3 S / 59.7 E
(TREIZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 425 SO: 425 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 185 NO: 110

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/01/2021 06 UTC: 13.9 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SO: 295 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 65

24H: 18/01/2021 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 19/01/2021 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 75

48H: 19/01/2021 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 65

60H: 20/01/2021 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 250 SO: 415 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SO: 55 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 45

72H: 20/01/2021 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/01/2021 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 500 SO: 415 NO: 240

120H: 22/01/2021 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 520 SO: 415 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 335 SO: 295 NO: 130

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5;CI=2.5

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EST RESTEE CISAILLEE AU COURS DES DERNIERES
6 HEURES AVEC UN CENTRE, LOCALISE A L'AIDE DE L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDE,
EN BORDURE SUD-EST DE LA CONVECTION PRINCIPALE. EN L'ABSENCE DE
DONNEES OBJECTIVES, L'INTENSITE EST LAISSEE A 35 KT EN ACCORD AVEC
LES ANALYSES SUBJECTIIVES DE DVORAK MAIS EN-DESSOUS DES ESTIMATIONS
OBJECTIVES QUI SONT A 40-45 KT.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
MITIGA ES. LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR EST RESTE OMNIPRESENT AVEC DE
L'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PRESENT EN BORDURE EST DE LA
CIRCULATION PENDANT QUE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE RESTE BONNE DANS LE
QUADRANT NORD-OUEST. DANS CE CONTEXTE, UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUTOT
LENTE DU SYSTEME EST ENVISAGEE EN ACCORD AVEC LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES
NUMERIQUES. A PARTIR DE LUNDI SOIR, LA CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DEVRAIT
FAIBLIR, D'ABORD EN ALTITUDE PUIS EN MOYENNE TROPO. LE DEVELOPPEMENT
D'ELOISE POURRAIT ALORS S'ACCELERER AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE COMME
SUGGERE CERTAINS MODELES (HWRF, ARPEGE, UKMO). LE DEGRE DE CONFIANCE
DANS CETTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE.

LE SYSTEME EST PREVU POURSUIVRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. MARDI, LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG AU SUD
AFFAIBLIT TEMPORAIREMENT LA DORSALE ET POURRAIT PILOTER UNE LEGERE
INFLEXION DE LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. CEPENDANT, LA DORSALE
SE RECONSTRUIT DES MERCREDI, CE QUI DEVRAIT EMPECHER ELOISE DE
PLONGER VERITABLEMENT AU SUD. LA DISPERSION DE L'ENSEMBLE EUROPEEN ET
DES DETERMINISTES EST PLUS FAIBLE QUE LA NORMALE, CE QUI DONNE UNE
BONNE CONFIANCE DANS CETTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE.

IL EST ENCORE UN PEU TOT POUR AVOIR DES CERTITUDES SUR LA ZONE
D'IMPACT AINSI QUE SUR L'INTENSITE DU PHENOMENE MAIS LE RISQUE DE
VENTS FORTS, DE FORTES PLUIES ET D'INONDATION COTIERE EST PRESENT
POUR LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR PARTICULIEREMENT POUR LES ZONES
COTIERES ENTRE SAMBAVA AU NORD ET TAMATAVE AU SUD. UN ATTERRISSAGE AU
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL RESTE TOUT A FAIT POSSIBLE.

JEUDI EN FIN DE JOURNEE OU NUIT SUIVANTE, ELOISE DEVRAIT RESSORTIR EN
MER SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. UNE NOUVELLE REINTENSIFICATION EST
ENVISAGEE DANS DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 171901
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/7/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3 S / 59.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 425 SW: 425 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/18 06 UTC: 13.9 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 295 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 65

24H: 2021/01/18 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2021/01/19 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 75

48H: 2021/01/19 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 65

60H: 2021/01/20 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 250 SW: 415 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 45

72H: 2021/01/20 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/21 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 500 SW: 415 NW: 240

120H: 2021/01/22 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 520 SW: 415 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 130

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5;CI=2.5

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED SHEARED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH A
CENTER, LOCATED WITH THE HELP OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY, AT THE
SOUTH-EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. IN THE ABSENCE OF
OBJECTIVE DATA, THE INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES BUT BELOW THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES WHICH
ARE AT 40-45 KT.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
AMBIVALENT. THE EASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS OMNIPRESENT WITH
MID-TROPOSPHERE DRY AIR LOCATED IN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
CIRCULATION, WHILE THE UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. IN THIS CONTEXT, A SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. FROM
MONDAY EVENING, THE SHEAR CONSTRAINT COULD EASE OFF, FIRST IN THE
UPPER LEVELS THEN AT THE MID-LEVELS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ELOISE COULD ACCELERATE BEFORE LADNFALL AS SUGGESTED BY SOME MODELS
(HWRF, ARPEGE, UKMO). THE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS INTENSITY
PREDICTION IS LOW.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON HEADING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE
NORTH-WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW/MID-LEVEL SUTROPICAL RIDGE. TUESDAY,
THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH IN THE SOUTH WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE
RIDGE AND COULD DRIVE A SLIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD INFLECTION OF THE TRACK.
HOWEVER, THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS BACK UP AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY WHICH
SOULD PREVENT ELOISE FROM SIGNIFICANTLY DIVING SOUTHWARDS. THE EURO
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DISPERSION IS WEAKER THAN NORMAL,
WHICH YIELDS A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT LANDFALL BUT
THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG WINDS, FLOODS AND STORM SURGE OVER SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF EASTERN MADAGASCAR MAINLY BETWEEN SAMBAVA TO THE
NORTH AND TAMATAVE TO THE SOUTH. A LANDFALL AT TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY REMAINS A REAL POSSIBILITY.

LATE THURSDAY, ELOISE SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA ON THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. A NEW INTENSIFICATION PHASE IS AWAITED WITHIN CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 171841
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/01/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 17/01/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3 S / 59.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 60
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 145 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/18 AT 06 UTC:
13.9 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/18 AT 18 UTC:
14.6 S / 54.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 171231
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/7/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 17/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.0 S / 61.4 E
(TREIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 425 SO: 425 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 185 NO: 110

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/01/2021 00 UTC: 13.5 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 305 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 120 NO: 65

24H: 18/01/2021 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 65

36H: 19/01/2021 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 19/01/2021 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SO: 250 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 65 NO: 65

60H: 20/01/2021 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 65

72H: 20/01/2021 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/01/2021 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 250 SO: 110 NO: 85

120H: 22/01/2021 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SO: 240 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 155 NO: 110

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5-;CI=2.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST MAINTENUE
AU-DESSUS DU CENTRE DE CIRCULATION, MAIS S'EST GLOBALEMENT AFFAIBLIE
PROBABLEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LE CYCLE DIURNE. LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
CONTINUE DE GENER LE DEVELOPPEMENT D'ELOISE, ANALYSE A 25KT SUR LES
DONNEES DU CIMSS. SUR LES TOUTES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITE, LE
CENTRE SEMBLE EMERGER SOUS LES CIRRUS AU SUD-EST DE LA CONVECTION
PRINCIPALE.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
MITIGA ES. LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR EST RESTE OMNIPRESENT AVEC DE
L'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PRESENT EN BORDURE EST DE LA
CIRCULATION PENDANT QUE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE RESTE BONNE DANS LE
QUADRANT NORD-OUEST. DANS CE CONTEXTE, UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUTOT
LENTE DU SYSTEME EST ENVISAGEE EN ACCORD AVEC LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES
NUMERIQUES. A PARTIR DE LUNDI SOIR, LA CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DEVRAIT
FAIBLIR, D'ABORD EN ALTITUDE PUIS EN MOYENNE TROPO. LE DEVELOPPEMENT
D'ELOISE POURRAIT ALORS S'ACCELERER AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE COMME
SUGGERE PAR PLUSIEURS MODELES (HWRF, ARPEGE, IFS). LE DEGRE DE
CONFIANCE DANS CETTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE.

LE SYSTEME EST PREVU POURSUIVRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. MARDI, LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG AU SUD
AFFAIBLIT TEMPORAIREMENT LA DORSALE ET POURRAIT PILOTER UNE LEGERE
INFLEXION DE LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. CEPENDANT, LA DORSALE
SE RECONSTRUIT DES MERCREDI, CE QUI DEVRAIT EMPECHER ELOISE DE
PLONGER VERITABLEMENT AU SUD. LA DISPERSION DE L'ENSEMBLE EUROPEEN ET
DES DETERMINISTES EST PLUS FAIBLE QUE LA NORMALE, CE QUI DONNE UNE
BONNE CONFIANCE DANS CETTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE.

IL EST ENCORE UN PEU TOT POUR AVOIR DES CERTITUDES SUR LA ZONE
D'IMPACT AINSI QUE SUR L'INTENSITE DU PHENOMENE MAIS LE RISQUE DE
VENTS FORTS, DE FORTES PLUIES ET D'INONDATION COTIERE EST PRESENT
POUR LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR PARTICULIEREMENT POUR LES ZONES
COTIERES ENTRE SAMBAVA AU NORD ET TAMATAVE AU SUD. UN ATTERRISSAGE AU
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL RESTE TOUT A FAIT POSSIBLE.

JEUDI, ELOISE DEVRAIT RESSORTIR EN MER SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE.
UNE NOUVELLE REINTENSIFICATION EST ENVISAGEE DANS DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 171231
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/7/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/17 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 61.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 425 SW: 425 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/18 00 UTC: 13.5 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 305 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 65

24H: 2021/01/18 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 65

36H: 2021/01/19 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2021/01/19 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2021/01/20 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2021/01/20 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/21 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 250 SW: 110 NW: 85

120H: 2021/01/22 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SW: 240 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5-;CI=2.5

OVER THE LAST 6HRS, CONVECTION MAINTAINED OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER
BUT WEAKENED OVERALL, PROBABLY BECAUSE OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE. THE
EASTERLY SHEAR KEEPS ON SLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELOISE (25KT
ACCORDING TO CIMSS ANALYSIS). ON THE VERY LAST SAT IMAGES AVAILABLE,
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SEEMS TO BECOME VISIBLE UNDER THE CIRRUS CLOUDS,
SOUTH-EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
AMBIVALENT. THE EASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS OMNIPRESENT WITH
MID-TROPOSPHERE DRY AIR LOCATED IN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
CIRCULATION, WHILE THE UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. IN THIS CONTEXT, A SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. FROM
MONDAY EVENING, THE SHEAR CONSTRAINT COULD EASE OFF, FIRST IN THE
UPPER LEVELS THEN AT THE MID-LEVELS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ELOISE COULD ACCELERATE BEFORE LADNFALL AS SUGGESTED BY SOME MODELS
(HWRF, ARPEGE, IFS). THE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS INTENSITY
PREDICTION IS LOW.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON HEADING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE
NORTH-WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW/MID-LEVEL SUTROPICAL RIDGE. TUESDAY,
THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH IN THE SOUTH WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE
RIDGE AND COULD DRIVE A SLIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD INFLECTION OF THE TRACK.
HOWEVER, THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS BACK UP AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY WHICH
SOULD PREVENT ELOISE FROM SIGNIFICANTLY DIVING SOUTHWARDS. THE EURO
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DISPERSION IS WEAKER THAN NORMAL,
WHICH YIELDS A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT LANDFALL BUT
THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG WINDS, FLOODS AND STORM SURGE OVER SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF EASTERN MADAGASCAR MAINLY BETWEEN SAMBAVA TO THE
NORTH AND TAMATAVE TO THE SOUTH. A LANDFALL AT TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY REMAINS A REAL POSSIBILITY.

THURSDAY, ELOISE SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA ON THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
A NEW INTENSIFICATION PHASE IS AWAITED WITHIN CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 171224
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/01/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 17/01/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 61.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING IN A RADIUS OF 50 NM AROUND THE CENTER AND
UP TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 60
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 145 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/18 AT 00 UTC:
13.5 S / 58.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/18 AT 12 UTC:
14.3 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/162151JAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 12.6S 62.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 62.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.1S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.7S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.3S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.0S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.5S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.6S 46.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.7S 41.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 61.5E.
17JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ELOISE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
528 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE CLUSTER OF PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 170507Z MHS
89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
BROAD BUT DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW, GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES (28-
29C). TC 12S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 100-150NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM TAU
96 TO TAU 120. IF YOU EXCLUDE NVGM, THE SPREAD IS ONLY 30-60NM IN
THE EXTENDED TAUS. CONSEQUENTLY, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS HIGH. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF
55 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM MAY PEAK HIGHER AFTER TAU 48 PRIOR
TO MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, TC 12S WILL RAPIDLY
WEAKEN OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR WITH DISSIPATION
ANTICIPATED BY TAU 96. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT
EMERGES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL NEAR TAU 108. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
172100Z AND 180900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 162200).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 170628
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/7/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 17/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.6 S / 62.4 E
(DOUZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 425 SO: 425 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 185 NO: 110

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 17/01/2021 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 345 SO: 270 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SO: 110 NO: 45

24H: 18/01/2021 06 UTC: 13.8 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SO: 260 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 95

36H: 18/01/2021 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SO: 295 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 100

48H: 19/01/2021 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 305 SO: 215 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 100

60H: 19/01/2021 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 65 NO: 35

72H: 20/01/2021 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 85 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 20 NO: 130

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/01/2021 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

120H: 22/01/2021 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 380 SO: 220 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 110 NO: 55

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST BIEN MAINTENUE
AU DESSUS DU CENTRE DE CIRCULATION. L'INFLUENCE DU CISAILLEMENT DE
SECTEUR EST EN ALTITUDE RESTE TOUTEFOIS MANIFESTE ALORS QUE LA
CONVECTION PRINCIPALE RESTE CONFINEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST ET QUE
DE L'AIR SEC RESTE PRESENT A L'EST. CEPENDANT, LES DERNIERES IMAGES
37GHZ DISPONIBLES (AMSUB DE 0507Z, SSMIS DE 0031Z) SUGGERENT UNE
AMELIORATION DE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE DE BASSES COUCHES AVEC LE DA BUT
D'ENROULEMENT DE BANDES DE PLUIES ASSEZ INTENSES DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
NORD. SUR LA BASE DES DONNEES ASCAT-A DE 0350Z QUI A REVELE LA
PRESENCE DE COUP DE VENT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST, LE SERVICE METEO
DE MAURICE A BAPTISE LE SYSTEME ELOISE A 05Z. L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE
EST LEGEREMENT AU-DESSUS DE L'ESTIMATION DVORAK DU CMRS.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT
MITIGA ES. LE CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR EST RESTE OMNIPRESENT AVEC DE
L'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PRESENT EN BORDURE EST DE LA
CIRCULATION PENDANT LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE RESTE BONNE DANS LE
QUADRANT NORD-OUEST. DANS CE CONTEXTE, UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUTOT
LENTE DU SYSTEME EST ENVISAGEE EN ACCORD AVEC LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES
NUMERIQUES. MARDI, LA CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE FAIBLIT, CE QUI POURRAIT
PERMETTRE UNE INTENSIFICATION UN PEU PLUS RAPIDE AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE
COMME SUGGERE PAR PLUSIEURS MODELES (HWRF, ARPEGE). COMME UN
DEPLACEMENT UN PEU PLUS RAPIDE POURRAIT REDUIRE L'EFFET DE LA
CONTRAINTE, LE DEGRE DE CONFIANCE DANS CETTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE
RESTE RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE.

LE SYSTEME EST PREVU POURSUIVRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
QUI SE MAINTIENT AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES JUSQU'A LUNDI COMPRIS. AU
DELA, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE DECALE VERS L'EST ET LAISSE LA PLACE
A UN TALWEG QUI REMONTE SUR LE SUD DE MADAGASCAR ET GENERE UNE
FAIBLESSE DANS LA CEINTURE ANTICYCLONIQUE. LA TRAJECTOIRE PREND ALORS
UNE INFLEXION EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST SUD-OUEST, AMENANT LE SYSTEME A
ATTERRIR SUR LA COTE ORIENTALE DE MADAGASCAR.

IL EST ENCORE UN PEU TOT POUR AVOIR DES CERTITUDES SUR LA ZONE
D'IMPACT AINSI QUE SUR L'INTENSITE DU PHENOMENE MAIS LE RISQUE DE
VENTS FORTS, DE FORTES PLUIES ET D'INONDATION COTIERE EST PRESENT
POUR LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR PARTICULIEREMENT POUR LES ZONES
COTIERES ENTRE SAMBAVA AU NORD ET TAMATAVE AU SUD. UN ATTERRISSAGE AU
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL RESTE TOUT A FAIT POSSIBLE.

VENDREDI, ELOISE DEVRAIT RESSORTIR EN MER SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE.
UNE NOUVELLE REINTENSIFICATION EST ENVISAGEE DANS DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 170628
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/7/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6 S / 62.4 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 425 SW: 425 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/17 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 45

24H: 2021/01/18 06 UTC: 13.8 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 95

36H: 2021/01/18 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 100

48H: 2021/01/19 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 305 SW: 215 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 100

60H: 2021/01/19 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 65 NW: 35

72H: 2021/01/20 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 20 NW: 130

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/21 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2021/01/22 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 380 SW: 220 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 110 NW: 55

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, CONVECTION MAINTAINED WELL OVER THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER EASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS CLEAR AS
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ONLY LOCATED ON THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE WHILE DRY AIR IS OCCUPYING THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HOWEVER, THE LAST 37GHZ MW IMAGES AVAILABLE (AMSUB 0507Z, SSMIS
0031Z) SUGGEST AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL INNER STRUCTURE WITH
RELATIVELY INTENSE RAINBANDS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. BASED ON THE 0350Z ASCAT-A WIND SCATT DATA WHICH
REVEALED GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUARANT, MAURITIUS
MET SERVICE HAS NAMED THE SYSTEM ELOISE AT 05Z. CURRENT INTENSITY IS
THUS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE RSMC DVORAK ESTIMATE.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MIXED. THE
EASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS OMNIPRESENT WITH MID-TROPOSPHERE DRY AIR
LOCATED IN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION, WHILE THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. IN THIS
CONTEXT, A SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED IN
AGREEMENT WITH MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. TUESDAY, THE PACE OF
INTENSIFICATION COULD INCREASE A BIT BEFORE LANDFALL AS THE UPPER
SHEAR CONSTRAINT BEGINS TO EASE OFF. AS A QUICKER MOTION THAN
ANTICIPATED COULD DECREASE THE EFFECTS OF THE SHEAR CONSTRAINT, THE
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS INTENSITY PREDICTION IS LOW.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID SUBTROPICAL LOW RIDGE WHICH
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ISLANDS UNTIL MONDAY. THEN, A TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO CIRCULATE ON THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, CAUSING A
WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH PRESSURE BELT. THE TRACK SHOULD BEND
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, AND ELOISE SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN
MADAGASCAN COAST.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT LANDFALL BUT
THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG WINDS, FLOODS AND STORM SURGE OVER SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF EASTERN MADAGASCAR MAINLY BETWEEN SAMBAVA TO THE
NORTH AND TAMATAVE TO THE SOUTH. A LANDFALL AT TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY, ELOISE SOULD COME BACK OVER SEA ON THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. A
NEW INTENSIFICATION PHASE IS AWAITED WITHIN CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 170616
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/01/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 17/01/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6 S / 62.4 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING IN A RADIUS OF 50 NM AROUND THE CENTER AND
UP TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 60
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 145 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/17 AT 18 UTC:
13.1 S / 59.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/18 AT 06 UTC:
13.8 S / 57.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 50 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>