Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KEVIN-21 in Mexico from 07 Aug 2021 15:00 UTC to 12 Aug 2021 15:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KEVIN-21

in Mexico

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KEVIN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	93 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	56 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	93 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

56 km/h Current Max.

Up to <1000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	07 Aug 2021 15:00	130	Few people	Few people
2	07 Aug 2021 21:00	139	Few people	Few people
3	08 Aug 2021 03:00	139	Few people	Few people
4	08 Aug 2021 09:00	130	Few people	Few people
5	08 Aug 2021 15:00	130	Few people	Few people
6	08 Aug 2021 21:00	130	Few people	Few people
7	09 Aug 2021 03:00	120	Few people	Few people
8	09 Aug 2021 09:00	102	Few people	No people
9	09 Aug 2021 15:00	93	Few people	No people
10	09 Aug 2021 21:00	83	Few people	No people
11	10 Aug 2021 03:00	74	Few people	No people
12	10 Aug 2021 09:00	74	Few people	No people	Mexico
13	10 Aug 2021 15:00	74	Few people	No people	Mexico
14	10 Aug 2021 21:00	83	Few people	No people	Mexico
15	11 Aug 2021 03:00	83	Few people	No people	Mexico
16	11 Aug 2021 09:00	74	Few people	No people	Mexico
17	11 Aug 2021 15:00	74	Few people	No people	Mexico
18	11 Aug 2021 21:00	74	Few people	No people	Mexico
19	12 Aug 2021 03:00	65	Few people	No people	Mexico
20	12 Aug 2021 09:00	56	Few people	No people	Mexico
21	12 Aug 2021 15:00	56	Few people	No people	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	07 Aug 2021 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15.9, -105.5
2	07 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	15.8, -106.8
3	08 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.8, -107.7
4	08 Aug 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.8, -108.7
5	08 Aug 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	15.8, -109
6	08 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	15.8, -109.7
7	09 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	16, -110.3
8	09 Aug 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	16.3, -110.9
9	09 Aug 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	16.6, -111.5
10	09 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	<1000 people	17, -112.2
11	10 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	<1000 people	17.4, -112.9
12	10 Aug 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	<1000 people	18.1, -113.3
13	10 Aug 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	<1000 people	19.1, -114.3
14	10 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	<1000 people	19.1, -115.5
15	11 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	<1000 people	19.5, -115.4
16	11 Aug 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	<1000 people	19.8, -116.4
17	11 Aug 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	21, -116.8
18	11 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	21.1, -117.8
19	12 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	22, -118.2
20	12 Aug 2021 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	22.3, -119.3
21	12 Aug 2021 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	23.2, -120.6
21	13 Aug 2021 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	24.2, -122.5
21	13 Aug 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	25.5, -124.9
21	14 Aug 2021 00:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	27, -126.9
21	14 Aug 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	28.7, -128.6
21	15 Aug 2021 00:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	30.2, -129.8

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Baja California Sur	Mexico

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Isla Socorro		100				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Clarion Island		Mexico
Roca Partido Island		Mexico
Socorro Island		Mexico

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 11 of 10 Aug 2021 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Level

Date (UTC)

Name

Country

Storm surge height (m)

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.