Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KEVIN-21
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 121600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KEVIN) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KEVIN) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 22.9N 120.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N 120.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 24.2N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 25.5N 124.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 27.0N 126.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 28.7N 128.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 30.2N 129.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
121600Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 120.8W.
12AUG21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KEVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
608 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z
IS 8 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 121431
TCDEP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kevin Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
800 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021

A little bit of convection continues to persist about 200 n mi to
the southwest of Kevin's center, but at that distance, it is not
considered organized in relation to the cyclone. In fact, Kevin has
had this structure for a good 18 hours or so, and it has
therefore degenerated into a remnant low. Based on last evening's
ASCAT passes, it is assumed that winds as high as 30 kt are still
occurring within the circulation. However, the center will be
moving over waters colder than 23 degrees Celsius very soon, so a
gradual decrease in the winds is expected over the next couple of
days. Dissipation of the remnant low in expected in about 3 days.

Kevin is moving toward the west-northwest, or 300/12 kt. The
remnant low is expected to move along the southwestern periphery of
a low- to mid-level ridge centered over the United States and
Mexico, which should cause a west-northwestward or northwestward
motion until dissipation. There is very little spread in the track
guidance, and this last NHC track forecast is just an update of
the previous one.

This is the last advisory being issued for Kevin. For additional
information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI
and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 23.2N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 13/0000Z 24.2N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 13/1200Z 25.5N 124.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/0000Z 27.0N 126.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1200Z 28.7N 128.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 15/0000Z 30.2N 129.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 121430
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Kevin Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
800 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...KEVIN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 120.6W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Kevin
was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 120.6 West. Kevin
is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through early Friday. A turn toward
the northwest is expected later on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
remnant low is expected to dissipate by Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are reaching the west coast of
Baja California Sur but will gradually subside today. However,
another round of swells is expected to reach southern portions of
Baja California Sur on Friday from Linda. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 121430
TCMEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021
1500 UTC THU AUG 12 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 120.6W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 120.6W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 120.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.2N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.5N 124.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.0N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.7N 128.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.2N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 120.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 121000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KEVIN) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KEVIN) WARNING NR 020
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 11E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 22.0N 118.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 118.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 23.2N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 24.4N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 25.8N 125.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 27.4N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 29.0N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
121000Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 119.5W.
12AUG21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KEVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
648 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121600Z, 122200Z, 130400Z AND 131000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 120838
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Kevin Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
200 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Kevin is barely a tropical cyclone, as its exposed low-level center
has been displaced over 100 n mi northeast of a few small bursts of
convection for most of the night. In fact, the last semblance of
organized convection with this sheared cyclone ended around 11/2100
UTC. If Kevin is unable to generate any organized convection soon,
the system could be declared a post-tropical remnant low later this
morning. Overnight ASCAT-A/B passes only showed 25 to 30-kt winds,
primarily in the eastern semicircle of Kevin. Therefore, the initial
intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory, which makes Kevin a
tropical depression.

Based on recent scatterometer fixes, it appears the broad center of
Kevin is moving slightly more west-northwestward than before, or
295/10 kt. A general west-northwest to northwest motion should
continue through dissipation as the system moves along the
southwestern side of a deep-layer ridge. The track guidance remains
in good agreement, and the official NHC track forecast has been
nudged slightly southward from the previous one based on the initial
motion adjustment.

The cyclone is already north of the 26 deg C isotherm, and it will
move over progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable
environment during the next couple of days. Thus, the development of
new, organized convection near Kevin's center seems very unlikely.
The official NHC forecast now shows Kevin degenerating to a remnant
low later today, in agreement with the latest GFS and ECMWF model
simulated satellite imagery. The remnant low should gradually spin
down over the next couple of days before dissipating this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 22.3N 119.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 23.2N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 13/0600Z 24.4N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/1800Z 25.8N 125.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0600Z 27.4N 127.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 14/1800Z 29.0N 129.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 120837
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Kevin Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
200 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...KEVIN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 119.3W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kevin
was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 119.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
few days.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and
Kevin is forecast to become a remnant low later today and dissipate
this weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kevin will affect portions of the coast
of Baja California Sur today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 120836
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021
0900 UTC THU AUG 12 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 119.3W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 119.3W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 118.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.2N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.4N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.8N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.4N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 29.0N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 119.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 120400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (KEVIN) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KEVIN) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 21.7N 117.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 117.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.9N 119.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 24.1N 122.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 25.5N 124.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 27.1N 126.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 28.7N 128.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
120400Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 118.4W.
12AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KEVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 661 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121000Z, 121600Z, 122200Z AND 130400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 120250
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021

The center of Kevin this evening consists of a broad low-level
swirl, with a decaying area of convection that has become
increasingly detached from the circulation in the southwestern
quadrant. The 0000 UTC subjective Dvorak estimates were both
T2.5/35 kt from SAB and TAFB, while the most recent UW-CIMSS
SATCON estimate was a bit higher at 38 kt. Given the degradation in
convective structure from the previous advisory, the initial
intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this advisory.

After an earlier westward jog, the initial motion has resumed a more
northwest heading at 305/11 kt. The track philosophy remains
unchanged, as Kevin's broad circulation will continue to be steered
to the west-northwest or northwest along the southwestern side of a
deep tropospheric ridge for the next 48-60 hours. The latest track
forecast is essentially an update from the previous advisory, and
lies nearly along the HCCA consensus aid, just a shade west of the
previous forecast track.

As Kevin continues to move into cooler sea-surface temperatures and
a drier air-mass, the storm is expected to continue weakening as the
remaining organized convection ceases. The latest intensity forecast
weakens Kevin to a tropical depression tomorrow morning and
degenerates the cyclone into a remnant low by Friday morning, in
good agreement with the model guidance that shows the remaining
convection dissipating by tomorrow night.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 22.0N 118.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 22.9N 119.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 24.1N 122.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 25.5N 124.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0000Z 27.1N 126.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 14/1200Z 28.7N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 120245
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...KEVIN WEAKENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW FRIDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 118.2W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 118.2 West. Kevin is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and a general
northwest or west-northwest motion should continue until
dissipation in a few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Kevin is expected to weaken to a tropical depression tomorrow
morning and then become a remnant low by Friday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
These swells should diminish along the coast by late Thursday.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 120243
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021
0300 UTC THU AUG 12 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 118.2W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 100SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 180SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 118.2W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 117.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.9N 119.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.1N 122.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.5N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.1N 126.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.7N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 118.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 112200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (KEVIN) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KEVIN) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 21.0N 117.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 117.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 22.2N 119.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 23.4N 121.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 24.7N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 26.2N 126.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 27.9N 128.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 29.5N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
112200Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 118.0W.
11AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KEVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 702 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120400Z, 121000Z, 121600Z AND 122200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORME 12E (LINDA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 112054
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows that Kevin continues to
have a large circulation, but that the deep convection is
well-removed from the tropical storm's center. A blend of the
Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB suggest that the system
remains with an intensity of 40 kt, which is also supported by
1723Z SATCON estimate of 38 kt.

Kevin's short-term movement has been a bit more westward, perhaps
due to pulling by the remaining deep convection restricted to its
southwestern quadrant. The longer-term initial motion is estimated
as 290 degrees at 9 kt. The tropical storm is primarily being
steered along the southwestern periphery of a deep tropospheric
ridge. However, as the deep convection ceases completely in a day
or two, the system will increasingly be steered by the lower
tropospheric flow. A motion toward the west-northwest or northwest
at a slightly faster forward speed is anticipated until dissipation.
The official track forecast is based upon the HFIP Corrected
Consensus Approach (HCCA), which is midway between the GFS and ECMWF
global model solutions but substantially faster than the mesoscale
hurricane model output. This new forecast is slightly westward of
the previous advisory, due to the somewhat more westward position at
the initial time.

The tropical storm has already moved across the 26C SST isotherm and
is moving toward even cooler water, drier air, and a more stable
atmosphere. Additionally, Kevin is being affected by moderate NE
tropospheric vertical wind shear. The large system should gradually
weaken under these increasingly hostile conditions and it's likely
that Kevin will become a remnant low by late Thursday. The official
intensity forecast is based upon the IVCN statistical scheme and is
nearly the same as the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 21.1N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 22.2N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 23.4N 121.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 24.7N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/1800Z 26.2N 126.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 14/0600Z 27.9N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1800Z 29.5N 129.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 112052
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...KEVIN CONTINUES AS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM WELL OFFSHORE OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY LATE THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 117.8W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was
located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 117.8 West. Kevin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). The
tropical storm should continue toward the west-northwest or
northwest at a slightly faster forward speed until dissipation.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Kevin is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by Thursday
morning and then a remnant low by Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
These swells should diminish along the coast by late Thursday.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 112050
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021
2100 UTC WED AUG 11 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 117.8W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 150SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 210SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 117.8W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 117.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.2N 119.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 60SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.4N 121.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.7N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.2N 126.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.9N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 29.5N 129.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 117.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 111434
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Shortwave infrared images show that the center of Kevin's broad
circulation is exposed to the northeast of a persistent cluster of
deep convection, resulting from 15-20 kt of east-northeasterly
shear over the system. With Dvorak T-numbers holding steady at T3.0
from TAFB and T2.5 from SAB, the initial intensity remains 40 kt.

Recent geostationary images and a 0943 UTC GCOM overpass warranted
a slight adjustment to the initial position, which now makes the
initial motion northwestward at 325/9 kt. A mid-tropospheric high
located over northern Mexico is expected to keep Kevin on a
northwestward to west-northwestward path for the next several days,
which is shown by all the track models. Most differences among the
models are speed related, with the ECMWF being one of the fastest
models and the GFS one of the slowest. In general, the NHC track
forecast is close to the consensus aids, but the initial position
adjustment required a fairly noteworthy northeastward shift in the
forecast track compared to the previous advisory.

Kevin's center is just about ready to move over waters cooler than
26 degrees Celsius and should be over waters as cold as 21 degrees
in a couple of days. Also, the shear affecting the storm is only
expected to diminish gradually, and these conditions should induce
imminent weakening. In line with the latest intensity guidance,
Kevin is likely to weaken to a tropical depression within 24 hours
and then become a remnant low in about 48 hours when it loses all
of its deep convection. This scenario is shown by the GFS and
ECMWF simulated satellite imagery.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 21.0N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 22.0N 118.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 23.2N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 24.4N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 25.6N 124.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 14/0000Z 27.0N 126.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1200Z 28.3N 128.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 111434
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...KEVIN ABOUT TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 116.8W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was
located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 116.8 West. Kevin is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward
to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Kevin is
likely to weaken to a tropical depression by early Thursday and
then a remnant low by early Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of
Baja California Sur over the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 111434
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021
1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 116.8W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 150SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 390SE 240SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 116.8W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 116.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.0N 118.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 50SE 100SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.2N 120.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.4N 122.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.6N 124.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.0N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.3N 128.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 116.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 110837
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021

The satellite presentation has degraded during the past several
hours and consists of an ill-defined surface circulation with an
associated ragged looking curved band in the south semi-circle.
The initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory and is
based on a blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB.

Statistical-dynamical SHIPS (GFS and ECMWF) intensity guidance show
the moderate northeasterly shear persisting, and as a result,
displacing the deep convective mass from the surface center for
another 24-36 hours. Later today, Kevin should begin moving over
decreasing (sub-26C) sea surface temperatures, and by mid-period,
entering a more statically stable and drier surrounding environment.
Therefore, steady weakening is forecast through the remaining
period, and Kevin is expected to become a depression tonight, and
degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday night. The NHC intensity
forecast is basically an update of the previous one, but now shows
the cyclone opening up into a trough of low pressure a little
sooner, similar to the global model solutions.

Kevin's surface center has been difficult to find this morning.
A timely SSMI/S microwave overpass, however, indicated that initial
position was a little south than previously noted, and the initial
motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 315/8 kt. Kevin is
being steered by a mid-tropospheric ridge to the northeast of the
cyclone and either a northwestward or west-northwestward motion is
forecast during the next 4 days. The official track forecast has
been nudged a bit to the left of the previous advisory, due to the
position adjustment, and is in agreement with the better performing
HCCA and TVCN multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 19.8N 116.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 20.7N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 22.1N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 23.3N 121.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 24.5N 123.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/1800Z 25.6N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0600Z 27.0N 127.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 110836
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...KEVIN WEAKENS SOME MORE...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 116.4W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 116.4 West. Kevin is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) A general
northwestward or west-northwestward motion is expected over the
next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Kevin is
forecast to weaken to a tropical depression tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of
Baja California Sur over the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 110836
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021
0900 UTC WED AUG 11 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 116.4W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 150SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 390SE 240SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 116.4W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 115.9W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.7N 117.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 100SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.1N 119.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.3N 121.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.5N 123.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.6N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.0N 127.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 116.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 110325 CCA
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 15...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021

Corrected direction of motion in the second paragraph.

Tracking the center of Kevin this evening has been a challenge, as
multiple low-level swirls appear to be rotating cyclonically around
a broader mean circulation. The deeper convection remains mostly
south of the estimated circulation center, though some cooler cloud
tops did attempt to build northward, following a mesovortex seen
on visible satellite imagery. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
from SAB and TAFB at 0000 UTC were T2.5/35 kt and T3.0/45 kt,
respectively, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate was hovering
between these values at 42 kt. The initial intensity is held at 45
kt for this advisory, favoring the higher intensity estimates given
the earlier ASCAT data.

The initial motion is estimated at 320/7 kt, attempting to follow
the mean center that has several mesovorticies rotating
around. A general northwest to west-northwestward motion is
expected to continue over the next several days as the large
cyclone is steered by a deep-layer ridge located to its northeast.
The latest track guidance was a bit more poleward compared to the
previous cycle, and the latest NHC track forecast has been shifted
a bit more poleward in the short term, choosing to remain close to
the track guidance consensus.

Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear continues to keep
Kevin's deepest convection downshear in the southern semicircle of
the large circulation envelope. Over the next 24 hours, Kevin will
also be crossing a sharp sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient,
with sub 26 C SSTs not far away to the north. As the
cyclone moves over these progressively cooler waters, gradual
weakening should commence. Simulated IR brightness temperature data
from both the GFS and ECMWF suggest that Kevin will lose its
remaining organized convection by 48-60 hours, and the latest NHC
intensity forecast shows Kevin becoming a remnant low by that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 19.5N 115.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 20.7N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 21.9N 118.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 23.0N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 24.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 25.1N 124.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0000Z 26.3N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0000Z 28.4N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 110252
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...POORLY ORGANIZED KEVIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 115.4W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 115.4 West. Kevin is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A general
northwestward or west-northwestward motion is expected over the
next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected to begin tomorrow and Kevin is
forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of
Baja California Sur over the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 110236
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021

Tracking the center of Kevin this evening has been a challenge, as
multiple low-level swirls appear to be rotating cyclonically around
a broader mean circulation. The deeper convection remains mostly
south of the estimated circulation center, though some cooler cloud
tops did attempt to build northward, following a mesovortex seen
on visible satellite imagery. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
from SAB and TAFB at 0000 UTC were T2.5/35 kt and T3.0/45 kt,
respectively, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate was hovering
between these values at 42 kt. The initial intensity is held at 45
kt for this advisory, favoring the higher intensity estimates given
the earlier ASCAT data.

The initial motion is estimated at 315/7 kt, attempting to follow
the mean center that has several mesovorticies rotating
around. A general northwest to west-northwestward motion is
expected to continue over the next several days as the large
cyclone is steered by a deep-layer ridge located to its northeast.
The latest track guidance was a bit more poleward compared to the
previous cycle, and the latest NHC track forecast has been shifted
a bit more poleward in the short term, choosing to remain close to
the track guidance consensus.

Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear continues to keep
Kevin's deepest convection downshear in the southern semicircle of
the large circulation envelope. Over the next 24 hours, Kevin will
also be crossing a sharp sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient,
with sub 26 C SSTs not far away to the north. As the
cyclone moves over these progressively cooler waters, gradual
weakening should commence. Simulated IR brightness temperature data
from both the GFS and ECMWF suggest that Kevin will lose its
remaining organized convection by 48-60 hours, and the latest NHC
intensity forecast shows Kevin becoming a remnant low by that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 19.5N 115.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 20.7N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 21.9N 118.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 23.0N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 24.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 25.1N 124.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0000Z 26.3N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0000Z 28.4N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 110235
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...POORLY ORGANIZED KEVIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD..


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 115.4W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 115.4 West. Kevin is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A general
northwestward or west-northwestward motion is expected over the
next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected to begin tomorrow and Kevin is
forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of
Baja California Sur over the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 110234
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021
0300 UTC WED AUG 11 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 115.4W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 130SE 160SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 300SE 240SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 115.4W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 115.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.7N 116.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.9N 118.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.0N 120.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.1N 124.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.3N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 28.4N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 115.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 102042
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021

Kevin is a poorly defined tropical cyclone. A recent scatterometer
pass shows a small enclosed low embedded in a larger, elongated
cyclonic gyre. This satellite wind data also indicated that the
strongest winds associated with the cyclone are located well to the
south of the center. Some of this data was questionable, and the
wind retrievals greater than 45 kt were in an area of deep
convection and likely rain contaminated. However, there were a few
believable wind vectors outside of the convection between 40-45 kt,
so Kevin's initial intensity has been adjusted to 45 kt, despite the
disorganized satellite presentation.

The scatterometer data along with surface observations from Clarion
Island revealed that the mean center of Kevin is farther to the
southwest than previously estimated, and therefore the initial
motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/08kt. There is no change to the
forecast track philosophy. A general northwestward to
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days as
Kevin moves along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge.
Other than an adjustment to the short-term track based on the shift
in the initial position, the latest NHC track forecast is little
changed from the previous one.

Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear is forecast to persist
over Kevin for the next 18-24 h, which should limit the cyclone's
ability to strengthen despite favorable SSTs and abundant mid-level
moisture. By 24 h, the cyclone will begin to pass over progressively
cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. Based on
this scenario, the latest NHC intensity forecast shows no change in
strength through tonight, followed by weakening beginning Wednesday.
By 72 h, CMC and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery continue to
suggest that Kevin will be devoid of organized convection, and so
the official NHC forecast shows Kevin as a remnant low by that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 19.1N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 19.9N 116.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 21.2N 118.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 22.2N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 23.3N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 24.3N 124.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 25.3N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1800Z 27.1N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 102040
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...DISHEVELED KEVIN CROSSES CLARION ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 115.5W
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 115.5 West. Kevin is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward
or west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast through tonight. Gradual
weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of
Baja California Sur today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 102038
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021
2100 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 115.5W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 150SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 150SW 15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 115.5W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.9N 116.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 150SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.2N 118.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 80SE 100SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.2N 120.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.3N 122.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.3N 124.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.3N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 27.1N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 115.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 101440
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
900 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021

Kevin remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the bulk of the deep
convection located southwest of its center, while the center
itself was exposed for a few hours earlier this morning. The
structure of the cyclone has changed little since yesterday, and
remains somewhat elongated. The estimated initial intensity is
being held at 40 kt, using a blend of the latest Dvorak T-numbers
from TAFB and SAB.

Kevin continues to make its jog to the northwest, and the initial
motion is 315/08 kt. A general northwestward to west-northwestward
motion is expected over the next several days as Kevin moves along
the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge. Model guidance
has continued to make a gradual shift to the north for the past
several runs, and thus the latest NHC track forecast has been
nudged a little northward as well, lying just south of the
consensus models.

Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear is forecast to persist
over Kevin for the next 24 h, which should limit the cyclone's
ability to strengthen despite favorable SSTs and abundant mid-level
moisture. By 24 h, the cyclone will begin to pass over progressively
cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. Based on
this scenario, the latest NHC intensity forecast shows no change in
strength through much of tonight, followed by weakening beginning
Wednesday morning. By 72 h, CMC and ECMWF model simulated
satellite imagery suggest that Kevin will be devoid of organized
convection, and so the official NHC forecast shows Kevin as a
remnant low by that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 19.1N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 19.9N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 21.0N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 22.1N 118.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 23.1N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 24.1N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 25.2N 125.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1200Z 27.2N 128.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1200Z 28.7N 131.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 101439
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
900 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...KEVIN EXPECTED TO REACH COOLER WATERS TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 114.3W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 114.3 West. Kevin is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward
or west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast through tonight. Gradual
weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of
Baja California Sur today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 101439
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021
1500 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 114.3W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 150SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 114.3W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 114.0W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.9N 115.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 150SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.0N 116.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 80SE 100SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.1N 118.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.1N 120.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.1N 122.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.2N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 27.2N 128.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 28.7N 131.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 114.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 100844
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021

Deep convection associated with Kevin is still displaced well south
and southwest of its exposed low-level center by strong
northeasterly vertical wind shear. Recent scatterometer data
indicate that the center is elongated from northeast to southwest,
and the tropical-storm-force winds are confined to the southern
semicircle of the cyclone. Based on several 35-kt wind vectors noted
in the latest scatterometer passes, the initial intensity is held at
40 kt for this advisory.

Satellite imagery indicates that Kevin has taken a northward jog
overnight, and its estimated initial motion is now northwest or
305/8 kt. A general northwestward to west-northwestward motion is
expected over the next several days as Kevin moves along the
southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge. Based on the initial
motion adjustment and guidance trends, the official NHC forecast
track has been adjusted northward from the previous one, although it
still lies a little to the south of the TVCE and HCCA aids.

Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear is forecast to persist
over Kevin for the next day or so, which should limit its ability to
strengthen despite favorable SSTs and abundant mid-level moisture.
By the time that the wind shear diminishes, the cyclone will be
passing over much cooler waters in a drier, more stable environment.
Thus, little change in strength is expected in the near-term,
followed by weakening beginning on Wednesday. Overall, the latest
NHC intensity forecast remains near the multi-model consensus. By
72 h, GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery suggest that
Kevin will be devoid of organized convection, and so the official
NHC forecast shows Kevin as a remnant low at that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 18.1N 113.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 18.8N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 19.8N 115.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 21.0N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 22.0N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 22.9N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 23.9N 123.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0600Z 26.0N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0600Z 27.5N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 100844
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...KEVIN STILL A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 113.3W
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 113.3 West. Kevin is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northwestward
or west-northwestward motion with little change in forward speed is
expected over the next several days.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is forecast during the next day or so, followed by gradual
weakening beginning on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center, primarily in the southern semicircle.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of
Baja California Sur today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 100844
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021
0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 113.3W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 150SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 113.3W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 113.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.8N 114.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 150SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.8N 115.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 80SE 100SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.0N 117.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.0N 119.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.9N 121.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.9N 123.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 26.0N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 27.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 113.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 100233
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
900 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021

Kevin remains a sheared tropical cyclone with most of the convection
displaced to the southwest of the elongated inner-core wind field
due to strong northeasterly vertical wind shear. However, some small
curved bands of shallow convection have recently developed in the
eastern semicircle, suggesting that the shear might be starting to
abate somewhat. The initial intensity has been decreased to 40 kt,
more in line with earlier ASCAT surface wind data that showed peak
surface winds near 40 kt.

The initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 295/08
kt. There is no change to the previous track forecast reasoning.
Kevin is expected to continue moving west-northwestward through the
120-h forecast period along the southwestern periphery of a
deep-layer ridge. The new NHC track forecast is just a tad to the
right or north of the previous track, but remains near the southern
portion of the track model envelope, between the ECMWF model to the
south and the consensus models to the north.

Kevin is forecast remain under the influence of at least modest
northeasterly to easterly wind shear for the next 48 h. Thus little
change in strength is expected despite he warm sea-surface
temperatures (SST) exceeding 28C and a very moist mid-level
environment exceeding 80 percent relative humidity. Thereafter the
shear is forecast to decrease to less than 10 kt, which would
normally favor intensification. However, Kevin will be moving over
near-22 deg C SSTs at that time, so weakening rather than
strengthening is forecast in the 72-120 period. The latest official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely
follows a blend of the consensus models HCCA and IVCN, and the Navy
COAMPS-TC model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 17.4N 112.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 18.1N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 19.0N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 20.0N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 21.0N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 21.8N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 22.7N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0000Z 24.6N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0000Z 26.2N 132.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 100233
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
900 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021

...KEVIN CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR CLARION ISLAND OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 112.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF CLARION ISLAND MEXICO
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 112.9 West. Kevin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next 48 hours. A weakening trend is expected to begin by Wednesday
evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 44 mph (70 km/h) was recently
measured by a Mexican Navy weather observation site on Clarion
Island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the
coast of Baja California Sur today and Tuesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 100233
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021
0300 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 112.9W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 90SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 60SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 112.9W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 112.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.1N 114.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.0N 115.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.0N 116.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.0N 118.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.8N 120.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.7N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 24.6N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 26.2N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 112.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 092032
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
300 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021

Visible satellite imagery and satellite wind data have revealed
today that Kevin is a poorly organized tropical cyclone. The
circulation is elongated from northeast-to-southwest, with one
dominant, exposed low-level cloud swirl pivoting around the larger
cyclonic gyre. The center has been initialized a little to the
southwest of the exposed swirl, closer to a generalized mean
cyclonic center. Satellite wind data also indicate that
tropical-storm-force winds are confined to the southern semicircle,
with a swath of 35-41 kt winds covering an area up to 110 n mi from
the estimated center. Assuming some instrument undersampling, and
based on the latest pair of 3.0 (45 kt) T-numbers from TAFB and SAB,
the initial intensity remains at 45 kt.

Kevin has not been able to get its act together over warm waters
and within the favorable thermodynamic environment, likely due to
moderate northeasterly shear and a subsequent lack of persistent
deep convection over the center. The overall environment that the
storm is interacting with is not expected to change much over the
next 36 h. And, since the structure of the cyclone is not conducive
for imminent strengthening, additional intensification is no longer
anticipated. After 36 h, Kevin will begin to move over decreasing
SSTs and into a more stable atmospheric environment. These
unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the cyclone to
begin weakening. By 96 hours, the system is forecast to be over
water temperatures of less than 22 degrees C, which should result
in the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low. The latest NHC
intensity forecast was adjusted slightly lower once again, and is
in good agreement with the latest consensus intensity guidance.

Kevin continues to move to the west-northwest, or 300/08 kt, along
the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This steering
pattern is forecast by all of the forecast models to remain intact
for the next several days, resulting in a continued
west-northwestward motion. The track guidance has once again
shifted slightly northward after 24 h. Therefore, the latest NHC
track forecast was also nudged a little to the north, and lies on
the southern end of the tightly clustered track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 17.0N 112.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 17.7N 113.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 18.5N 114.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 19.3N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 20.4N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 21.2N 119.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 22.0N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 23.6N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1800Z 25.5N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 092032
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
300 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021

...POORLY ORGANIZED KEVIN CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 112.2W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 112.2 West. Kevin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. A
weakening trend is expected to begin by Wednesday evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the
coast of Baja California Sur today and Tuesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 092032
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021
2100 UTC MON AUG 09 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 112.2W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 110SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 120SE 60SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 112.2W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 111.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.7N 113.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 110SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.5N 114.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.3N 116.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.4N 117.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.2N 119.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.0N 121.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 23.6N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 25.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 112.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 091434
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
900 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021

Kevin has been successfully battling moderate northeasterly wind
shear overnight, as a large convective mass with cloud tops colder
than -80 degrees C has persisted for several hours over the center
and southwestern portion of the cyclone's large circulation. The
latest Dvorak intensity estimates have a large spread, ranging from
55 kt from TAFB to 35 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT. A mean of 45 kt from
these values suggest that the storm's initial intensity remains the
same as 6 h ago, which seems reasonable as the overall appearance of
Kevin has changed little this morning.

The storm is moving to the west-northwest at 300/07 kt along the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This steering pattern
is forecast by all of the forecast models to remain in tact for the
next several days, resulting in a continued west-northwestward
motion. The only notable change in the track guidance was a slight
shift to the north, and the latest NHC track forecast lies in
between the previous one and the tightly clustered track guidance.

The favorable thermodynamic environment and warm water have allowed
Kevin to maintain deep convection despite the vertical wind shear.
With the large amount of convection occurring near and over the
center of the cyclone, it is possible for some slight strengthening
to occur in the short-term, despite wind shear persisting over the
next couple of days. By 48 hours, Kevin will begin to move over
decreasing SSTs and into a more stable atmospheric environment.
These unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the cyclone
to begin weakening. By 96 hours, the system is forecast to be over
water temperatures of less than 23 degrees C, which should result in
the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low. The latest NHC
intensity forecast was decreased slightly from the previous one, and
is in good agreement with the various intensity consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 16.6N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 17.3N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 18.1N 114.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 18.9N 115.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 19.7N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 20.6N 119.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 21.4N 121.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 23.0N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1200Z 24.5N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 091432
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
900 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021

...KEVIN MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES TO BATTLE WIND
SHEAR...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 111.5W
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 111.5 West. Kevin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days,
followed by a gradual weakening trend thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the
coast of Baja California Sur today and Tuesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 091432
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021
1500 UTC MON AUG 09 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 111.5W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 120SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 111.5W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 111.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.3N 112.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.1N 114.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.9N 115.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.7N 117.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.6N 119.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.4N 121.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 23.0N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 24.5N 130.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 111.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 090836
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021

Kevin is a sheared tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery indicates the
low-level center lies near the edge of the dense overcast, which has
a sharp border in the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone. The
associated deep convection is displaced well to the southwest of
Kevin's partially exposed center. Recent scatterometer data only
show 25 to 30-kt winds near the center, but the full southwestern
quadrant where the most intense convection is occurring was not
sampled. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this
advisory, in best agreement with the subjective final Dvorak
T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. This estimate could still be generous,
however.

The cyclone has turned west-northwestward during the past 12 h, and
its estimated motion is now 290/6 kt. The track forecast reasoning
is unchanged, as Kevin is expected to move west-northwestward for
most of the forecast period along the southwestern periphery of a
mid-level ridge. The official NHC track forecast has been adjusted a
bit northward again this cycle, following the trend of the latest
multi-model consensus aids.

Although Kevin has been embedded within a favorable thermodynamic
environment, 15 to 20 kt of northeasterly shear has thus far limited
its rate of strengthening. This shear is expected to persist for the
next couple of days, so it seems likely that Kevin will continue to
struggle intensifying, despite warm SSTs and a moist, unstable
environment. By the time the vertical wind shear diminishes, Kevin
will have gained enough latitude that the underlying SSTs will be
unfavorable for further strengthening. The new intensity guidance is
much lower than previous cycles, and so the latest NHC intensity
forecast has been reduced by 5 to 10 kt at all forecast hours. Thus,
Kevin is no longer forecast to become a hurricane. By day 5, the
system is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low over sub-22
deg C waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 16.3N 110.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 16.8N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 17.6N 113.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 18.4N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 19.2N 116.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 20.1N 118.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 21.0N 120.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 22.5N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 24.0N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 090835
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021

...SLIGHTLY WEAKER KEVIN IS STRUGGLING WITH WIND SHEAR...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 110.9W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 110.9 West. Kevin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. A little strengthening is possible during the
next couple of days, followed by a slow weakening trend thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the
coast of Baja California Sur today and Tuesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 090834
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021
0900 UTC MON AUG 09 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 110.9W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 110.9W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.8N 111.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.6N 113.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.4N 115.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.2N 116.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.1N 118.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.0N 120.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 22.5N 124.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 24.0N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 110.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 090400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (KEVIN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KEVIN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 15.9N 110.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 110.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.4N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.2N 112.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.0N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.7N 115.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.6N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.6N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.1N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 23.5N 128.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
090400Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 110.4W.
09AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KEVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1079
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091000Z, 091600Z, 092200Z AND 100400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (JIMENA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 090234
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021

Satellite images indicate that Kevin has been relatively steady in
strength over the past several hours. Deep convection is most
organized near the center and over the western half of the
circulation, with microwave images showing the center partially
exposed. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 15 kt of
northeasterly wind shear. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB,
SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are largely unchanged
and range from 45 to 55 kt, and based on that data the initial
intensity is once again held at 50 kt.

Kevin is moving westward at a relatively slow pace of 7 kt. There
has been little change in the track forecast rationale. A general
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days
as Kevin moves in the flow on the southwest side of a mid-level
ridge. The track models have trended a little to the north this
cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that direction.

Despite being over warm 29 degree C waters and embedded in a moist
air mass, northeasterly shear has limited the amount of
strengthening during the past day or so. Since the shear is
expected to continue, Kevin is only forecast to strengthen slowly
during the next day or two. After that time, however, progressively
cooler waters and a more stable environment should cause a gradual
decay. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the
previous one, following the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. The
cyclone will likely become a remnant low by the end of the forecast
period when it is expected to be over cool 22 C waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 16.0N 110.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 16.4N 111.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 17.2N 112.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 18.0N 114.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 18.7N 115.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 19.6N 117.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 20.6N 119.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 22.1N 123.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 23.5N 128.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 090233
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021

...KEVIN HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH BUT STILL FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 110.3W
ABOUT 475 MI...770 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 110.3 West. Kevin is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected overnight, and that general motion
should continue during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next day or two,
and Kevin could become a hurricane Monday night or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the
coast of Baja California Sur during the next day or two. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 090232
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021
0300 UTC MON AUG 09 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 110.3W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 110.3W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.2N 112.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.0N 114.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.7N 115.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.6N 117.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.6N 119.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.1N 123.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 23.5N 128.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 110.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 082200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (KEVIN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KEVIN) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 15.7N 109.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 109.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 16.0N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.6N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.3N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.1N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.0N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 19.8N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.5N 122.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 23.0N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
082200Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 109.9W.
08AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KEVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1103
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090400Z, 091000Z, 091600Z AND 092200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (JIMENA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 082034
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021

The earlier burst of deep convection almost completely dissipated,
leaving the core of the low-level circulation briefly exposed.
However, over the past couple of hours new convection has
redeveloped over the center of Kevin. This disruption, possibly
aided by moderate northeasterly shear, put a temporary pause on the
cyclone's strengthening. The latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and
SAB have decreased to 3.0 (45 kt), while the CI-values remain at 3.5
(55 kt). Based on a blend of these numbers, the estimated initial
advisory intensity remains 50 kt.

Kevin is forecast to remain over warm waters while embedded in a
moist and unstable atmospheric environment for the next 48 h or so.
The main inhibiting factor for intensification is the persistent
vertical wind shear, which is forecast to persist for the next few
days. Kevin is forecast by all of the intensity guidance to overcome
this shear, and slowly strengthen over the next two days. After 60
h, Kevin should begin to move over decreasing SSTs and into a more
stable atmospheric environment, which should cause the cyclone to
steadily weaken. By 120 h, the system is forecast to be over waters
of less than 23 degrees C, likely causing the cyclone to become
devoid of deep convection. The only notable change in the latest NHC
forecast from the previous one was to introduce the mention of the
system as post-tropical by day 5. Otherwise, the latest forecast
remains near the IVCN consensus aid.

Kevin continues to move westward, or 270/7 kt. There is no change to
the forecast track reasoning. A mid- to upper-level trough west of
the Baja California peninsula is expected to weaken the western
portion of the ridge that is currently steering Kevin westward.
This should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward overnight
and this west-northwestward heading is then expected to continue for
the remainder of the forecast period. The latest track guidance is
in very good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast
is little changed from the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 15.8N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 16.0N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 16.6N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 17.3N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 18.1N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 19.0N 116.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 19.8N 118.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 21.5N 122.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 23.0N 126.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 082030
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021

...KEVIN EXPECTED TO RESUME STRENGTHENING TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 109.7W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 109.7 West. Kevin is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected tonight, and that general motion
should continue into Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Kevin
is forecast to become a hurricane by Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the
coast of Baja California Sur during the next day or two. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 082030
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021
2100 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.7W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.7W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 109.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.0N 110.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.6N 112.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.3N 113.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.1N 115.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.0N 116.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.8N 118.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 21.5N 122.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 23.0N 126.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 109.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 081600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (KEVIN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KEVIN) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 15.7N 108.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 108.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.8N 110.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.2N 111.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.9N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.7N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.5N 115.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.4N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.2N 120.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 22.7N 125.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
081600Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 109.2W.
08AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KEVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1118
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082200Z, 090400Z, 091000Z AND 091600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (JIMENA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 081448
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
900 AM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021

A burst of deep convection with clouds top temperatures of around
-80C has developed and expanded over the center of Kevin this
morning, however a few microwave overpass have shown that the
center is located near the eastern portion of the convective mass.
Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were
T3.5 (55 kt) at 12Z, with the latest objective estimates from ADT
and SATCON at 53 kt and 44 kt, respectively. Using a blend of these
intensity estimates, the initial wind speed has been increased to 50
kt for this advisory. Kevin remains in a generally favorable
environment of warm water and a moist, unstable atmosphere, however
moderate northeasterly shear is likely to hinder rapid development
over the next day or two. The NHC intensity forecast does call for
steady strengthening and it brings Kevin to hurricane status on
Monday. After 60-72 hours, decreasing SSTs and less favorable
thermodynamic conditions should cause weakening during the latter
portion of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and lies near the ICVN consensus
aid.

Kevin is moving westward or 270 degrees at about 7 kt, a little
slower than before. A mid- to upper-level trough west of the Baja
California peninsula is expected to weaken the western portion
of the ridge that is currently steering Kevin westward. This
should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward by Monday
morning, and this west-northwestward heading is then expected to
continue for the remainder of the forecast period. The track
guidance is in relatively good agreement on the overall forecast
scenario except there are some differences in Kevin's forward
speed. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, closest
to the the HCCA and GFEX consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 15.8N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 15.8N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 16.2N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 16.9N 112.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 17.7N 114.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 18.5N 115.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 19.4N 117.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 21.2N 120.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 22.7N 125.3W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 081445
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
900 AM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021

...KEVIN STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 109.0W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 109.0 West. Kevin is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected early Monday, and that general motion
should continue into Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days, and Kevin is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the
coast of Baja California Sur during the next day or two. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 081445
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021
1500 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.0W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.0W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 108.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.8N 110.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.2N 111.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.9N 112.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.7N 114.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.5N 115.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.4N 117.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 21.2N 120.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 22.7N 125.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 109.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 081000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (KEVIN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KEVIN) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 15.8N 108.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 108.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 15.8N 109.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 16.1N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.7N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.5N 113.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.2N 114.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.1N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 20.8N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 22.5N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
081000Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 108.7W.
08AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KEVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1124
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081600Z, 082200Z, 090400Z AND 091000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (HILDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09E (JIMENA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 080839
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
300 AM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021

Kevin has changed little overnight. Microwave data and infrared
satellite imagery reveal that its convective bands are still
somewhat fragmented with only modest curvature. Recent UW-CIMSS
objective estimates and subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB range from 35 to 45 kt, so the initial intensity is held at
40 kt for this advisory. Unfortunately, no recent scatterometer
passes were available to better assess the cyclone's current
intensity.

The cyclone continues moving westward, or 270 degrees, at around 9
kt. This motion is expected for another 12 to 24 h, before a mid- to
upper-level trough weakens the steering ridge and causes Kevin to
move west-northwestward through midweek. Kevin is forecast to pass
near or just south of Clarion Island on Tuesday. The track guidance
is in good agreement for much of the forecast period, and the latest
official NHC forecast lies near the previous one and generally
follows the multi-model consensus aids.

Kevin appears primed for some strengthening, as the cyclone will
remain in a moist, unstable environment with ample oceanic heat
content for the next couple of days. However, persistent
northeasterly wind shear of 15-20 kt will likely curtail rapid
intensification in an otherwise favorable environment. Despite the
shear, the guidance supports strengthening in the near-term, and the
official NHC forecast shows Kevin becoming a hurricane on Monday.
The cyclone's intensity is forecast to level off by Tuesday, with
weakening thereafter as Kevin moves over cooler waters and continues
to battle moderate shear. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a
little lower than the previous one, but remains near or slightly
above the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and IVCN aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 15.8N 108.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 15.8N 109.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 16.1N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 16.7N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 17.5N 113.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 18.2N 114.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 19.1N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 20.8N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 22.5N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 080837
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
300 AM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021

...KEVIN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 108.7W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 108.7 West. Kevin is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue today, followed by a west-northwestward
motion on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Kevin
is forecast to become a hurricane by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are expected to begin affecting
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico today, and spread
northward to the coast of Baja California Sur early this week.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 080836
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021
0900 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.7W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.7W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.8N 109.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.1N 110.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.7N 112.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.5N 113.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.2N 114.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.1N 116.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 20.8N 120.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 22.5N 124.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 108.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 080402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 08.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 142.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.08.2021 0 16.3N 142.5W 1014 20
1200UTC 08.08.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91C ANALYSED POSITION : 9.3N 169.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP912021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.08.2021 0 9.3N 169.9W 1012 21
1200UTC 08.08.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 25.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.08.2021 0 14.2N 25.5W 1014 17
1200UTC 08.08.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 40.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.08.2021 0 13.9N 40.6W 1013 22
1200UTC 08.08.2021 12 14.0N 42.4W 1014 22
0000UTC 09.08.2021 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 107.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.08.2021 0 15.6N 107.3W 1005 26
1200UTC 08.08.2021 12 15.7N 108.7W 1003 26
0000UTC 09.08.2021 24 16.0N 110.4W 1001 27
1200UTC 09.08.2021 36 16.7N 111.6W 999 38
0000UTC 10.08.2021 48 17.7N 113.7W 998 37
1200UTC 10.08.2021 60 18.5N 115.5W 996 41
0000UTC 11.08.2021 72 19.4N 117.9W 995 39
1200UTC 11.08.2021 84 19.9N 119.6W 996 42
0000UTC 12.08.2021 96 20.5N 121.9W 996 39
1200UTC 12.08.2021 108 21.1N 124.7W 997 36
0000UTC 13.08.2021 120 21.7N 127.5W 998 39
1200UTC 13.08.2021 132 22.2N 130.5W 1002 34
0000UTC 14.08.2021 144 23.1N 133.5W 1007 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 13.6N 101.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.08.2021 60 14.7N 102.3W 1008 34
0000UTC 11.08.2021 72 16.1N 104.6W 1006 38
1200UTC 11.08.2021 84 17.4N 106.6W 1008 26
0000UTC 12.08.2021 96 18.2N 108.7W 1007 21
1200UTC 12.08.2021 108 19.0N 110.6W 1009 21
0000UTC 13.08.2021 120 19.4N 112.8W 1008 20
1200UTC 13.08.2021 132 19.5N 114.9W 1010 22
0000UTC 14.08.2021 144 19.0N 116.7W 1010 20

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 17.3N 63.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.08.2021 60 17.3N 63.3W 1013 28
0000UTC 11.08.2021 72 18.7N 66.3W 1012 27
1200UTC 11.08.2021 84 19.6N 69.0W 1011 28
0000UTC 12.08.2021 96 20.7N 71.5W 1011 29
1200UTC 12.08.2021 108 21.7N 74.0W 1012 26
0000UTC 13.08.2021 120 22.4N 76.2W 1012 25
1200UTC 13.08.2021 132 23.2N 78.0W 1013 22
0000UTC 14.08.2021 144 23.9N 80.0W 1013 26


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080402

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 080402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 142.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.08.2021 16.3N 142.5W WEAK
12UTC 08.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91C ANALYSED POSITION : 9.3N 169.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP912021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.08.2021 9.3N 169.9W WEAK
12UTC 08.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 25.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.08.2021 14.2N 25.5W WEAK
12UTC 08.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 40.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.08.2021 13.9N 40.6W WEAK
12UTC 08.08.2021 14.0N 42.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 107.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.08.2021 15.6N 107.3W WEAK
12UTC 08.08.2021 15.7N 108.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2021 16.0N 110.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2021 16.7N 111.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2021 17.7N 113.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2021 18.5N 115.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2021 19.4N 117.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2021 19.9N 119.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2021 20.5N 121.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2021 21.1N 124.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2021 21.7N 127.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2021 22.2N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2021 23.1N 133.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 13.6N 101.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.08.2021 14.7N 102.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.08.2021 16.1N 104.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2021 17.4N 106.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2021 18.2N 108.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2021 19.0N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2021 19.4N 112.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2021 19.5N 114.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2021 19.0N 116.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 17.3N 63.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.08.2021 17.3N 63.3W WEAK
00UTC 11.08.2021 18.7N 66.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2021 19.6N 69.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2021 20.7N 71.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2021 21.7N 74.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2021 22.4N 76.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2021 23.2N 78.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2021 23.9N 80.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080402

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 080400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (KEVIN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KEVIN) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 15.8N 107.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 107.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.7N 108.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.7N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.1N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.9N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.7N 113.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.6N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.5N 118.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.2N 123.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
080400Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 107.8W.
08AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KEVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1145
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081000Z, 081600Z, 082200Z AND 090400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09E (JIMENA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 080232
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
900 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021

Kevin appears to be gradually gaining strength. Satellite images
show that the storm has a central dense overcast feature that is
surrounded by fragmented curved bands. The latest Dvorak
classifications from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin range from 35 to 45 kt, and based on that data, the
initial intensity is nudged up to 40 kt.

The cyclone is moving westward, or 270 degrees, at 10 kt. Kevin is
expected to continue westward for about another day or so while it
remains on the south side of a mid-level ridge to its north. After
that time, a turn to the west-northwest is forecast as a mid- to
upper-level trough erodes the western portion of the ridge, allowing
Kevin to gain more latitude. The models are in fairly good
agreement, and the NHC track forecast is essentially an update of
the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

The tropical storm is currently over warm 29 C waters and embedded
in a very moist air mass. These conditions support strengthening,
but there could be a moderate amount of northeasterly shear that
will likely prevent rapid intensification. Nonetheless, steady
strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Kevin
is forecast to become a hurricane during that time period. Beyond
that time, however, progressively cooler waters and drier air should
cause Kevin to level off in strength and then begin to weaken. The
NHC intensity forecast lies close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus
models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 15.8N 107.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 15.7N 108.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 15.7N 110.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 16.1N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 16.9N 112.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 17.7N 113.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 18.6N 115.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 20.5N 118.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 22.2N 123.1W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 080231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
900 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021

...KEVIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 107.7W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 107.7 West. Kevin is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, followed
by a turn toward the west-northwest on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast over the
next couple of days, and Kevin is expected to become a hurricane
Sunday night or Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are expected to begin affecting
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Sunday, and spread
northward to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 080231
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021
0300 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 107.7W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 107.7W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 107.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.7N 108.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.7N 110.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.1N 111.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.9N 112.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.7N 113.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.6N 115.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 20.5N 118.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.2N 123.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 107.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 072038
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021

Visible satellite imagery has continued to show an improvement in
the cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone today. Banding has
increased over the western and southern portions of the circulation
while a small CDO has developed near the center. Scatterometer data
from around 1700 UTC revealed an area of 30-kt winds to the
northwest of the center, but with the continued increase in
organization and Dvorak T-numbers of T2.5 from both TAFB and SAB the
initial wind speed has been increased to 35 kt. Kevin becomes the
eleventh named storm in the eastern Pacific basin during the 2021
season, which is running about a month ahead of schedule as the
eleventh named storm typically does not form until early-to-mid
September.

Kevin is located within an environment of low-to-moderate shear,
warm sea surface temperatures, and a moist atmosphere. These
conditions are expected to support steady strengthening over the
next few days, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane
in about 36 hours. There is some spread in the intensity guidance
with the statistical guidance on the more aggressive side as
compared to some of the dynamical models. The NHC wind speed
forecast lies a little above the various consensus models but
slightly below the SHIPS guidance.

The storm is moving westward or 270/9 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge
that extends across the subtropical eastern Pacific is forecast to
steer Kevin generally westward during the next 36 hours. After that
time, a cut-off low west of the Baja peninsula is expected to erode
the western portion of the ridge causing Kevin to turn west-
northwestward to northwestward through the remainder of the forecast
period. The GFS, which depicts an unrealistic elongation of the
system's low-level vorticity in about 48 hours, shows a much
sharper northward or northwestward motion from 48-72 hours. Less
weight was placed on that solution with the NHC track remaining
closer to the bulk of the guidance and the various consensus aids.
The latest track forecast is similar to, but a little slower than
previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 15.8N 106.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 15.8N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 15.7N 109.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 15.7N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 16.2N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 17.3N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 18.2N 114.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 19.9N 117.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 21.9N 122.2W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 072037
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021

...YET ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 106.8W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 106.8 West. Kevin is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, followed
by a turn toward the west-northwest or northwest on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast over the
next couple of days, and Kevin is expected to become a hurricane
Sunday night or Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are expected to begin affecting
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Sunday, and spread
northward to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 072037
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021
2100 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.8W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.8W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.8N 108.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.7N 109.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.7N 110.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.2N 111.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.3N 112.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.2N 114.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 19.9N 117.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 21.9N 122.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 106.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 071451
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021

Last night's METOP-A/B scatterometer overpasses indicated that the
area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico had become a little better defined, and
since that time, the system has developed sufficient organized
convection to be designated as a tropical depression. The initial
intensity is estimated to be 30 kt and is in agreement with the
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Modest northeasterly shear, warm sea surface temperatures and
a moist surrounding low- to mid-level environment support steady
strengthening during the next few days, and the depression
is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight. The Statistical
SHIPS (GFS/ECMWF), and the HCCA/IVCN multi-model intensity aids,
all show that the cyclone will become a hurricane in about 48
hours, and the NHC forecast follows suit. The intensity forecast
resembles the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models, and is just
below the Decay SHIPS guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/8 kt. The
depression is being steered by a mid-tropospheric ridge stretching
westward over the subtropical eastern Pacific from high pressure
located over the northern Gulf of Mexico. A general westward motion
with a similar forward speed is expected through early next week.
Through the remaining portion of the forecast, a turn toward the
west-northwest to northwest is expected due to a growing weakness in
the aforementioned ridge. The official forecast is based on the
TVCN multi-model consensus and lies between the GFS and ECMWF global
models solutions.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 15.9N 105.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 15.9N 106.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 15.9N 108.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 15.9N 109.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 16.2N 111.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 16.8N 112.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 18.0N 113.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 19.9N 117.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 21.7N 121.4W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 071450
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 105.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 105.5 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and
this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or
so, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is expected during the next few days. The
cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight, and
could become a hurricane in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 071450
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021
1500 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 105.5W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 105.5W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 105.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.9N 106.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.9N 108.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.9N 109.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.2N 111.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.8N 112.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.0N 113.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 19.9N 117.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 21.7N 121.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 105.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>