Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for PETER-21 in Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands U.S., Virgin Islands British, Anguilla, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda from 19 Sep 2021 03:00 UTC to 23 Sep 2021 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for PETER-21

in Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands U.S., Virgin Islands British, Anguilla, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda

23 Sep 2021 03 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PETER-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands U.S., Virgin Islands British, Anguilla, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	83 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability	Medium (Anguilla)

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	46 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	83 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

46 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.2 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	19 Sep 2021 03:00	74	No people	No people
2	19 Sep 2021 09:00	74	No people	No people
3	19 Sep 2021 13:00	74	No people	No people
4	19 Sep 2021 15:00	74	30 thousand	No people	Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla
5	19 Sep 2021 21:00	74	No people	No people
6	20 Sep 2021 03:00	83	20 thousand	No people	Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla
7	20 Sep 2021 09:00	83	Few people	No people	Anguilla
8	20 Sep 2021 15:00	83	Few people	No people	Anguilla
9	20 Sep 2021 21:00	83	No people	No people
10	21 Sep 2021 03:00	83	220 thousand	No people	Anguilla, Virgin Islands British, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Virgin Islands U.S.
11	21 Sep 2021 09:00	83	2 million	No people	Virgin Islands British, Anguilla, Virgin Islands U.S., Puerto Rico, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda
12	21 Sep 2021 15:00	65	2.2 million	No people	Virgin Islands British, Virgin Islands U.S., Puerto Rico, Anguilla, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda
13	21 Sep 2021 21:00	56	2.2 million	No people	Virgin Islands British, Virgin Islands U.S., Puerto Rico, Anguilla, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda
14	22 Sep 2021 03:00	56	2.2 million	No people	Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands British, Virgin Islands U.S., Anguilla, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda
15	22 Sep 2021 09:00	56	2.2 million	No people	Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands U.S., Virgin Islands British, Anguilla, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda
16	22 Sep 2021 15:00	56	2.2 million	No people	Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands U.S., Virgin Islands British, Anguilla, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda
17	22 Sep 2021 21:00	56	2.2 million	No people	Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands U.S., Virgin Islands British, Anguilla, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda
18	23 Sep 2021 03:00	46	2.2 million	No people	Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands U.S., Virgin Islands British, Anguilla, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	19 Sep 2021 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	16.4, -53.1
2	19 Sep 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	18, -53.5
3	19 Sep 2021 13:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	17.6, -56
4	19 Sep 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	17.6, -56.5
5	19 Sep 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	18.4, -57.8
6	20 Sep 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	18.6, -58.5
7	20 Sep 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	19.1, -59.5
8	20 Sep 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	<1000 people	19.5, -60.9
9	20 Sep 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	20, -61.8
10	21 Sep 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	220000 people	19.8, -62.8
11	21 Sep 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	2 million people	19.6, -63.8
12	21 Sep 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	2 million people	19.9, -64.7
13	21 Sep 2021 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	20.5, -65
14	22 Sep 2021 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	20.8, -65.3
15	22 Sep 2021 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	21.5, -66.1
16	22 Sep 2021 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	21.6, -66.9
17	22 Sep 2021 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	21.7, -66.7
18	23 Sep 2021 03:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	22.1, -67

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Source: GADM and GHSL

Provinces

Source: GADM and GHSL

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.