Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PETER-21
in Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands U.S., Virgin Islands British, Anguilla, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.





Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 230237
TCDAT1

Remnants Of Peter Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

Although a low-level swirl can still be seen in infrared satellite
imagery, this feature has continued to lose definition. A recently
arriving partial ASCAT-A overpass shows that the circulation has
become more elongated, and Peter lacks a well-defined center. In
addition, the system has not produced any organized deep convection
in quite some time. The cloudiness and convective activity that has
been occuring over the western Atlantic has been located along a
trough axis well northeast of the decaying circulation center. As a
result, Peter no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone,
and this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. The initial
intensity is set at 25 kt in accordance with the ASCAT data. The
remnants of Peter are expected to remain within an area of strong
upper-level westerly winds, and further weakening should occur over
the next day or two.

The system has been moving slowly north-northwestward or 335/4 kt.
A weakness in the low-level ridge should allow the remnants to turn
northward tomorrow, and this general motion should continue through
the end of the week.

This is the last NHC advisory on this system. Additional information
on the remnants of Peter can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 22.1N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 230234
TCMAT1

REMNANTS OF PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021
0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 67.0W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 67.0W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 66.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 67.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF
PETER CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01
KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 230235
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Peter Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

...DEPRESSION PETERS OUT...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON PETER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 67.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the remnants of Peter were located near
latitude 22.1 North, longitude 67.0 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). The remnants are
expected to move generally northward over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Peter will affect the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and portions of the Bahamas during the
next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on the remnants of
Peter can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 222058
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Peter Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

Peter continues to just barely maintain its classification as a
tropical cyclone. While the low-level circulation has remained
intact today, the convection continues to be located well downshear
to the east. However, there have been a few convective elements
forming a bit closer to the center recently and that is the
primarily justification for maintaining advisories on Peter as
a tropical cyclone this afternoon. The initial intensity is
maintained at 30 kt given the earlier scatterometer data, though
this might be generous. Continued strong southwesterly vertical wind
shear within a dry mid-level environment should ultimately strip the
remaining convection away from Peter, with the tropical cyclone
expected to finally peter out as a post-tropical remnant low in the
next 12 hours.

The depression has been moving very slowly recently, with an
estimated north-northwestward motion of 340/4 kt. The cyclone is
expected to turn northward and then north-northeastward following a
weakness in the low-level ridge until the system finally opens up
into a trough, sometime in the 48 to 60 hour period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 21.7N 66.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 22.5N 66.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/1800Z 23.5N 66.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0600Z 24.4N 66.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1800Z 25.6N 65.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 222055
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021
2100 UTC WED SEP 22 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 66.7W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 66.7W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 66.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N 66.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.5N 66.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.4N 66.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 25.6N 65.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 66.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 222055
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Peter Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

...PETER EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 66.7W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Peter
was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 66.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7
km/h). A similar motion with gradual turn to the north is expected
tonight followed by a turn toward the north-northeast tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and
Peter is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or
tomorrow.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Peter are affecting the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, and will continue spreading westward to
the Bahamas tonight. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 221453
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Peter Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

Peter is barely hanging on to its status as a tropical cyclone this
morning. While still closed, the low-level circulation continues to
look increasingly diffuse on satellite imagery. In addition, the
convective activity, which lacks much organization, remains
displaced well to the northeast by moderate to strong southwesterly
vertical wind shear. A blend of the latest subjective satellite
intensity estimates support keeping Peter as a 30-kt tropical
depression this advisory. As has been the story for the last few
days, Peter will continue to deal with a lethal combo of 25-35 kt
southwesterly vertical wind shear while embedded in a relatively dry
mid-level air environment. These factors should ultimately lead to
Peter's demise as a tropical cyclone, with the latest NHC intensity
forecast moving the timing up for post-tropical remnant low status
to 24 hours. This degeneration could occur as soon as this afternoon
if more organized convection does not soon return near the center.
Alternatively, Peter may also open up into a trough at any time
since the center continues to gradually lose definition.

Similar to prior nights, Peter made another jog to the left after
overnight convection diminished near the center. More recently, the
depression has begun a slow north-northwestward motion estimated at
330/6 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn northward and then
northeastward over the next 24 hours as low-level ridging breaks
down south of a deep-layer trough located near Bermuda. The NHC
track forecast early on is a bit west of the previous one due to the
leftward initial position, but falls in line to a similar track
after 24 hours, continuing to split the difference between the GFS
and ECMWF models.

As Peter moves poleward away from Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the
Virgin Islands, the threat of heavy rainfall for these regions
associated with the system has diminished.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 21.6N 66.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 22.3N 67.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 23.3N 67.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0000Z 24.2N 66.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1200Z 25.1N 66.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/0000Z 26.3N 65.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 221442
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Peter Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

...PETER BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 66.9W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Peter
was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 66.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11
km/h). A turn to the north is expected by tonight, followed by a
north-northeastward or northeastward motion through the end of the
week. On the forecast track, the center of Peter will continue
moving away from the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Peter is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Peter are affecting the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, and will continue spreading westward to
the Bahamas later today. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 221441
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021
1500 UTC WED SEP 22 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 66.9W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 66.9W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 66.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.3N 67.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.3N 67.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.2N 66.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.1N 66.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 26.3N 65.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 66.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 220840
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Peter Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

Peter is a disorganized tropical depression. The low-level center
is fully exposed and currently located a couple of hundred miles
north of Puerto Rico. Most of the associated thunderstorm activity
remains displaced well east of the center due to about 30 kt of
westerly shear. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on a
0206 UTC ASCAT-B pass that showed a swath of 25-30 kt winds about 60
n mi north of the center. The ASCAT data also showed that the
circulation has become quite elongated. Since the hostile
conditions of strong westerly shear and dry air entrainment are not
expected to let up, a continued gradual decay of Peter is forecast.
The system is still predicted to become a remnant low in 36 hours
and dissipate in a few days, but both of these could occur sooner.

The depression is moving northwestward, with the latest initial
motion estimated to be 310/10 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn
northward by tonight and then northeastward by the end of the week
as the system moves in the flow on the east side of a deep-layer
trough. The NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the
previous one and close to an average of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Key Messages:

1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Peter may lead to areas
of urban and small stream flooding through Thursday morning across
northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and portions of the Virgin
Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 21.5N 66.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 22.2N 66.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 23.2N 66.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 24.1N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0600Z 25.1N 65.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/1800Z 26.5N 64.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 220834
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Peter Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

...POORLY ORGANIZED PETER EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 66.1W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Peter
was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 66.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
turn to the north is expected by tonight, followed by a
north-northeastward or northeastward motion through the end of the
week. On the forecast track, the center of Peter will continue
moving away from the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Peter is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Peter could
produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with storm
total accumulations up to 9 inches, across portions of the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and northern portions of Hispaniola through
Thursday morning. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small
stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Peter are affecting the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, and will continue spreading westward to
the Bahamas later today. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 220834
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021
0900 UTC WED SEP 22 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 66.1W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 66.1W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 65.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.2N 66.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.2N 66.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.1N 66.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.1N 65.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.5N 64.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 66.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 220244
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Peter Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021

The last visible satellite images of Peter this evening indicated
that its low-level center was losing definition and becoming even
more elongated. Earlier, new bursts of convection associated with
Peter had become oriented along a northeast to southwest axis, a
possible sign that Peter may no longer have a well-defined center
and could be opening up into a trough. But the estimated center
position is now obscured by convective debris, and without recent
scatterometer data to prove otherwise, Peter is maintained as a
sheared tropical depression for this advisory. The initial intensity
of 30 kt is consistent with a UW-CIMSS ADT objective 30-kt estimate
and a T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classification from SAB.

It is estimated that Peter is moving northwestward, or 310/6 kt,
although this is somewhat uncertain given the degraded low-level
structure of the cyclone. The track reasoning remains consistent
with previous advisories. Peter is forecast to turn more northward
on Wednesday, and then move north-northeastward to northeastward
through the end of the week as a trough to the north and northeast
of Peter erodes the southern portion of the low-level steering
ridge. The track consensus aids have shifted slightly to the right
this cycle, and so the latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted a
little to the right of the previous one.

Environmental conditions are expected to remain hostile for Peter
over the next couple of days. Strong vertical wind shear of 25-30 kt
will persist for the next 24-36 h, and GFS and ECMWF model simulated
satellite imagery suggest that Peter will be unable to sustain
enough deep, organized convection to maintain its status as a
tropical cyclone for much longer. Thus, the NHC forecast shows Peter
becoming a remnant low in 36 h, with some additional weakening
expected before dissipation by this weekend. Of course, without
sufficient convection to sustain the low-level vortex, it would not
be surprising if the depression degenerated into a trough even
sooner than forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Peter may lead to areas
of urban and small stream flooding through early Wednesday across
northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and portions of the Virgin
Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 20.8N 65.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 21.6N 66.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 22.6N 66.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 23.6N 66.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0000Z 24.6N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/1200Z 25.7N 65.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 220243
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Peter Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH STRONG SHEAR...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 65.3W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Peter
was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 65.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A
turn to the north is expected by late tomorrow, followed by a
north-northeastward or northeastward motion through the end of the
week. On the forecast track, the center of Peter will continue
moving away from the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Peter is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday.

Nearby NOAA buoy observations indicate the estimated minimum central
pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Peter could
produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 4 inches, with storm
total accumulations up to 6 inches, across portions of the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and northern portions of Hispaniola through
Thursday morning. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small
stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Peter are affecting the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, and will continue spreading westward to
the Bahamas on Wednesday. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 220242
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021
0300 UTC WED SEP 22 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 65.3W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 65.3W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 65.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.6N 66.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.6N 66.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.6N 66.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.6N 66.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.7N 65.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 65.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 212050
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Peter Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
500 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021

Like clockwork compared to prior days, deep convection has reignited
closer to the increasingly elongated low-level circulation of Peter.
Despite this increase in convective coverage, there does not appear
to be much if any organization to this activity, with the
upper-level cirrus taking on the appearance of a shapeless blob. In
addition, an earlier 1157 UTC ASCAT-A pass received just after the
prior advisory showed a peak wind retrieval of only 29 kt, well to
the north of the low-level circulation. Furthermore, NOAA buoy
41043, located north of the center of Peter, has been observing peak
1-minute sustained winds between 20-25 kt over the last 6 hours.
These lower winds, in combination with the lack of tropical storm
force winds observed by the earlier Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance
mission provide enough justification to downgrade Peter to a
tropical depression this advisory with maximum sustained winds of 30
kt.

The ongoing afternoon convection appears to have slowed down the
forward motion of Peter a bit this afternoon, but the heading
remains off to the west-northwest at 300/7 kt. Peter is still
expected to gradually move to the west-northwest in the short term,
followed by a somewhat sharp turn to the north and north-northeast
as a weakness in the low-level flow develops from a deep-layer
trough positioned near Bermuda. Similar to this morning, the
guidance is in general agreement on this solution, with some cross-
and along-track spread. The latest NHC track forecast is just a bit
more right compared to the previous advisory, leaning a bit closer
to the consensus aids which have also shifted a bit right this
advisory.

Peter's convective activity is unlikely to help improve the
increasingly elongated vortex, mainly because the convection is
likely to entrain dry mid-level air that often results in cool
downdrafts disrupting the low-level cyclonic circulation more than
helping. With deep-layer shear between 25-35 kt expected to persist
for the next 36 hours in both the GFS- and ECMWF-SHIPS guidance,
gradual weakening is likely to continue. By 36 hours, while
intermittent bursts of deep convection will remain possible over
warm sea-surface temperatures, both the GFS and ECMWF forecast
simulated IR brightness temperatures show the convection becoming
increasingly disorganized and unlikely to sustain Peter's status as
a tropical cyclone. Thus, the cyclone is now forecast to become a
remnant low in 36 hours. However, given that Peter's circulation is
becoming increasingly elongated, it is also possible the system may
open up into a trough even before this time period.

Key Messages:

1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Depression
Peter could lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through
the evening across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, portions of the
Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 20.5N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 21.3N 66.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 22.3N 67.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 23.2N 67.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1800Z 24.2N 66.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/0600Z 25.3N 66.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1800Z 26.7N 65.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1800Z 28.7N 63.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 212046
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Peter Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
500 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021

...PETER NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 65.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Peter
was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 65.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).
A turn to the north with a decrease in forward speed is expected
beginning tomorrow. On the forecast track, the center of Peter will
remain well north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and
should move well east of the southeastern Bahamas during the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional gradual weakening is forecast over the next
several days, and Peter could degenerate into a remnant low by
Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical
Depression Peter could produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 4
inches, with storm total accumulations up to 6 inches, across
portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including portions of the
Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico and the northern portions of
Hispaniola through Thursday morning. This rainfall may lead to areas
of urban and small stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Peter are affecting the northern Leeward
Islands and Puerto Rico, and will continue spreading westward to
Hispaniola this evening and the Bahamas on Wednesday. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 212043
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021
2100 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 65.0W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 65.0W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 64.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.3N 66.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.3N 67.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.2N 67.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.2N 66.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.3N 66.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.7N 65.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.7N 63.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 65.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 211457
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 21 2021

Like the last several days, this morning's visible satellite
imagery indicates that Peter has become increasingly detached
from the remaining fragmented convection that is firing more than
100 n mi east of the center. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance
aircraft has been sampling the storm this morning and so far has
yet to find any flight level (925 mb) or SFMR winds above tropical
storm force, although they weren't able to fly the full pattern in
the northeastern quadrant. The initial intensity has been lowered
to 35 kt for this advisory, though the data so far suggests this
estimate is generous.

After taking a jog to the west overnight, Peter appears to have
resumed a slower west-northwest motion at 290/8 kt. Over the next
several days, Peter is expected to continue to slow down as it
gradually turns to the north and then north-northeast as a
deep-layer cyclone to the north is forecast to create a weakness in
the current low-level ridging. The track guidance is in general
agreement with this scenario, but differences remain in how sharp
this rightward turn will be. The latest NHC track forecast has
elected to stay close to the track consensus models TVCN and HCCA,
and is a bit right of the previous track.

After holding its own against a fairly hostile upper-level wind
environment during the last 24-48 hours, Peter appears to finally
be succumbing to the combination of 25-30 kt of deep-layer vertical
wind shear helping to import sub-50 percent mid-level relative
humidity over the center. This shear is not forecast to abate for
the next 36-48 hours, and it now appears likely Peter will not be
able to survive this unfavorable environment. The latest NHC
intensity forecast now weakens Peter to a tropical depression in 12
hours, and degenerates it to a remnant low in 48 hours. However,
given the current fragile state of the low-level circulation, it is
distinctly possible that Peter may open up into a trough even sooner
in the next 24-48 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter
could lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through
today across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, portions of the
Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 19.9N 64.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 20.7N 65.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 21.7N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 22.7N 67.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 23.4N 67.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/0000Z 24.4N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1200Z 25.4N 66.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1200Z 27.5N 64.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/1200Z 29.8N 62.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 211454
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 21 2021

...PETER WEAKENING AS IT PASSES BY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 64.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM NW OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 64.7 West. Peter is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
west-northwest motion is expected to continue today. A turn to the
north with a decrease in forward speed is expected beginning
tomorrow. On the forecast track, the center of Peter is currently
passing north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and
should move well east of the southeastern Bahamas during the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next several
days. Peter is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by
tonight and then degenerate to a remnant low by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm
Peter could produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 4 inches,
with storm total accumulations up to 6 inches, across portions of
the Northern Leeward Islands, including portions of the Virgin
Islands, as well as Puerto Rico and the northern portions of
Hispaniola through Thursday morning. This rainfall may lead to areas
of urban and small stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Peter are affecting the northern Leeward
Islands and Puerto Rico, and will continue spreading westward to
Hispaniola later today and the Bahamas on Wednesday. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 211452
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021
1500 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 64.7W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 64.7W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 64.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.7N 65.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.7N 67.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.7N 67.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.4N 67.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.4N 67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.4N 66.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.5N 64.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 29.8N 62.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 64.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 210835
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
500 AM AST Tue Sep 21 2021

Peter is a ragged and strongly sheared tropical storm. Satellite
images and surface observations indicate that the low-level center
is fully exposed and located about 100 miles west-southwest of the
edge of the main area of deep convection. This very asymmetric
structure is due to strong west-southwesterly shear associated with
an upper-level low to the northwest of Peter. The initial intensity
is held at 45 kt based on the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB,
but this could be a little generous. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm later this morning.

Since the storm has decoupled, the low-level center has been moving
just south of due west at 265/10 kt. This motion has brought the
storm to the southwest of the previous track. The models insist
that Peter will turn back to the west-northwest soon and continue
moving in that direction during the next couple of days as the storm
moves in the flow on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge. After
that time, a turn to the north and then northeast is expected as
Peter moves toward broad troughing over the north Atlantic. The
latest run of the ECMWF has come into line with the remainder of the
guidance, and the new forecast is to the west of, and slower than,
the previous one. This prediction lies on the south side of the
guidance envelope during the first 24 hours of the forecast.

Peter is expected to remain in fairly hostile conditions during the
next few days with strong westerly shear continuing and dry air
likely entraining into the circulation. These negative factors for
the storm should cause a slow decay, and that is reflected in the
NHC forecast. In fact, some of the guidance suggests that Peter
could succumb to the hostile conditions and open into a trough later
this week. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous
one and in line with the majority of the guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter
could lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through
Tuesday across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, portions of the
Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 19.6N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 20.3N 65.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 21.2N 66.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 22.2N 67.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 23.2N 68.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 24.0N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 25.2N 67.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 27.2N 65.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 29.2N 64.2W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 210835
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021
0900 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 63.8W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 63.8W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 63.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.3N 65.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.2N 66.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.2N 67.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.2N 68.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.2N 67.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 27.2N 65.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 29.2N 64.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 63.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 210835
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
500 AM AST Tue Sep 21 2021

...DISORGANIZED PETER PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 63.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNW OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 63.8 West. Peter is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwest
motion is expected to resume later today and continue for the next
day or two. A turn to the north with a decrease in forward speed
is expected later this week. On the forecast track, the center of
Peter will pass north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm
Peter could produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 4 inches,
with storm total accumulations up to 6 inches, across portions of
the Northern Leeward Islands, including portions of the Virgin
Islands, as well as Puerto Rico and the northern portions of
Hispaniola through Thursday morning. This rainfall may lead to areas
of urban and small stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Peter are affecting the northern Leeward
Islands and Puerto Rico, and will continue spreading westward to
Hispaniola later today and the Bahamas on Wednesday. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 210250
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021

Peter has proven to be a resilient tropical cyclone, despite strong
upper-level wind shear that continues to displace its deep
convection well east of its now exposed low-level center. Data from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Peter
tonight, as well as recent scatterometer data, indicate that the
cyclone has maintained its tropical storm intensity. An ASCAT-A pass
shows several 40-kt wind vectors, with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 150 n mi from the center in the northeastern
quadrant. The aircraft has found peak 925-mb flight-level winds of
47 kt and SFMR winds of around 35 kt, although it did not sample the
area where ASCAT depicted the strongest winds. The initial intensity
is held at a possibly generous 45 kt for this advisory based on the
scatterometer data.

An upper-level trough to the northwest of Peter should maintain 20
to 30 kt of vertical wind shear over the cyclone for the next 2-3
days. Thus, intensification seems unlikely during this period,
despite 29 deg C SSTs along Peter's forecast track. If the tropical
cyclone can endure these hostile upper-level winds, it could survive
through the entire forecast period, although the drier mid-level
environment at higher latitudes will also work against Peter later
this week. However, an alternative scenario that has been favored by
the GFS is that Peter weakens sooner due to a lack of sustained
convection and opens up into a trough late this week. The long-range
forecast is further complicated by the potential development of
another non-tropical low to the north of Peter later this week,
which could interact with or absorb Peter. The official NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and only shows
gradual weakening over the next several days, which is in good
agreement with the HCCA and IVDR consensus aids.

Data from the aircraft indicate that the center has moved westward
and slowed down a bit over the past several hours, and Peter's
initial motion is estimated to be 285/10 kt. Peter is expected
to continue moving generally west-northwestward through Tuesday, as
it is steered around the southern extent of a low- to mid-level
ridge over the central and western Atlantic. By Wednesday, a
mid-level cutoff low is forecast to develop to the north of Peter
over the western Atlantic, which will induce a weakness in the
steering ridge. Therefore, the cyclone is forecast to slow down and
turn northward and then north-northeastward through the latter part
of the week and into the weekend. There are some larger along-track
differences noted in the guidance at days 4-5, with the ECMWF moving
or re-forming the center much farther north than the rest of the
track guidance. The official NHC track forecast is shifted slightly
to the right at 48 h and beyond, based on the latest TVCA and HCCA
consensus aids. At longer ranges, the forecast is of much lower
confidence and trends a bit slower than the consensus aids, which
are heavily influenced by the outlying ECMWF solution.


Key Messages:

1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter
may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Tuesday
across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the
Northern Leeward Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 19.8N 62.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 20.4N 64.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 21.3N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 22.3N 67.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 23.2N 67.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 24.0N 67.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 25.1N 67.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 27.5N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 30.5N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 210247
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021

...RESILIENT PETER MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH DESPITE STRONG SHEAR...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON
TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 62.8W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 62.8 West. Peter is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so,
followed by a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed
on Wednesday, and then a turn to the north by Wednesday night. On
the forecast track, the center of Peter will pass north of the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday.

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained
winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow
weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center, primarily in the northeastern quadrant.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm
Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally
higher amounts possible, across portions of the Northern Leeward
Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico and
the northern portions of Hispaniola through Tuesday. This rainfall
may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Peter are affecting the northern Leeward
Islands and Puerto Rico, and will continue spreading westward to
Hispaniola on Tuesday and the Bahamas on Wednesday. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 210246
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021
0300 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 62.8W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 62.8W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 62.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.4N 64.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.3N 66.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.3N 67.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N 67.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N 67.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.1N 67.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 27.5N 66.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 30.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 62.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 202032
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
500 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021

Peter's evolution on satellite today is nearly a repeat of
yesterday, with the deep convection having been stripped well east
of the center in the morning and then redeveloping over and east of
the center by the afternoon. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft investigating Peter this morning and early afternoon
provided data during a few different passes through the northeast
quadrant that supported peak surface winds of 40-45 kt. Since the
convection has returned it is reasonable to assume that no weakening
has occurred since the aircraft departed the cyclone, and the
initial advisory intensity remains 45 kt.

Vertical wind shear is forecast to remain near 30 kt for the next
few days as Peter interacts with an upper trough to its west, so
some weakening is anticipated during that time. By late in the
forecast period, the shear should lessen somewhat as the cyclone
lifts north of the upper trough. Therefore, slow strengthening is
indicated by late this week. There remains a possibility that Peter
does not survive the shear over the next few days. However, the
storm thus far has shown some resiliency to the hostile environment.
The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the
previous one and remains near the various intensity consensus
solutions.

Peter continues to move west-northwest but at a slightly slower pace
of around 12 kt. The forecast track reasoning for the cyclone
remains the same. The west-northwestward motion is forecast to
continue for the next two days as the system remains to the
southwest of a subtropical ridge. By Wednesday, Peter should slow
down and turn northwest then north as it reaches a developing
weakness in the ridge carved out by a mid-latitude trough moving
across the northeastern United States. There were no significant
changes to the track or the track guidance from the previous
advisory, and the latest NHC track is closest to the TVCN and GFEX
consensus tracks.

Based on the latest track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, no
tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern
Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico at this time.
However, locally heavy rain is possible today and Tuesday when
Peter is expected to pass to the north of these locations.


Key Messages:

1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter
may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through
Tuesday across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin
Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 20.0N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 20.6N 63.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 21.4N 65.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 22.2N 66.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 23.1N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 24.0N 68.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 25.1N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 27.8N 66.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 30.5N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 202032
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021
2100 UTC MON SEP 20 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 61.8W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 61.8W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 61.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.6N 63.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.4N 65.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.2N 66.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.1N 68.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.0N 68.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.1N 68.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 27.8N 66.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 30.5N 65.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 61.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 202032
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
500 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021

...PETER REFUSES TO SUCCUMB TO STRONG WIND SHEAR...
...STORM EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS
WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 61.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 61.8 West. Peter is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, followed
by a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed on
Wednesday, and then a turn to the north by Wednesday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Peter will pass north of the northern
Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm
Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally
higher amounts possible across portions of the Northern Leeward
Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico and
the northern portions of Hispaniola through Tuesday. This rainfall
may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Peter are expected to affect the northern
Leeward Islands early this week, and then reach the Bahamas by
midweek. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 201444
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021

West-southwesterly vertical wind shear on the order of 30 kt is
pummeling Peter this morning. Just like yesterday morning, the
low-level center of the storm is pulling away from the deep
convection and is now displaced greater than 80 n mi. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Peter this
morning and has measured peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 54 kt
and several SFMR values of 40-45 kt, supporting keeping the initial
intensity at 45 kt for this advisory.

Peter refuses to slow down, and for the past several hours has been
moving 290/14 kt. This west-northwestward motion is forecast to
continue for the next two days as the system remains to the
southwest of a subtropical ridge. By Wednesday, Peter should slow
down and turn northwest then north as it reaches a developing
weakness in the ridge carved out by a mid-latitude trough
moving across the northeastern United States later this week. The
model track guidance has shifted slightly left for the 24-72 h time
frames, and the NHC forecast track was nudged in that direction as
well. Otherwise, the latest NHC forecast track is little changed
from the previous one.

An upper-level trough to the west of Peter is forecast to remain
near the cyclone for the next few days, keeping the storm in a
high-shear environment. Therefore, despite being over warm waters
the storm is forecast to slowly weaken. If Peter survives the next
72 h, there could be a window of opportunity late in the forecast
period for some modest strengthening as the cyclone would have
lifted to the north of the upper trough. It should be noted that a
vast majority of the GFS ensembles show Peter dissipating later this
week as the system opens into a wave. This scenario is plausible,
especially if deep convection fails to persist near the center of
the cyclone. The latest NHC intensity forecast assumes Peter
survives, and closely follows the various intensity consensus
solutions.

Based on the latest track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, no
tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern
Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico at this time.
However, locally heavy rain is possible today and Tuesday when
Peter is expected to pass to the north of these locations.


Key Messages:

1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter
may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through
Tuesday across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin
Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 19.5N 60.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 20.1N 62.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 20.8N 64.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 21.8N 66.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 22.7N 67.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 23.5N 68.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 24.5N 68.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 26.5N 67.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 28.6N 66.4W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 201444
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021

...PETER BATTLING INCREASINGLY HOSTILE WIND SHEAR...
...TROPICAL STORM EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
EARLY THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 60.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 60.9 West. Peter is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of
days, followed by a turn to the northwest with a decrease in
forward speed on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Peter will pass north of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto
Rico through Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is
1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm
Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally
higher amounts possible, across portions of the Northern Leeward
Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico and
the northern portions of Hispaniola through Tuesday. This rainfall
may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Peter are expected to affect the northern
Leeward Islands early this week, and then reach the Bahamas by
midweek. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 201444
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021
1500 UTC MON SEP 20 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 60.9W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 60.9W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 60.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.1N 62.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.8N 64.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.8N 66.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.7N 67.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.5N 68.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.5N 68.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.5N 67.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 28.6N 66.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 60.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 200848 CCA
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 7...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021

Corrected name of storm in first and second paragraphs

Peter is a strongly sheared tropical storm. Reconnaissance wind
data, conventional satellite imagery, and passive microwave
satellite data indicate that Peter's center is located just to the
west of the deep convection. Data from the aircraft support holding
the intensity at 45 kt for now based on 925-mb flight-level and
SFMR winds of 53 kt and 41 kt, respectively, on their last leg when
the aircraft came in from the northeast. The central pressure had
also increased only slightly to 1006 mb.

Peter has continued to move west-northwestward, or 295/12 kt. There
are no significant changes to the previous track forecast or
reasoning. Peter is expected to move around the southwestern and
western periphery of a subtropical ridge for the next couple of
days, followed by a slow northward motion on days 3-5 as the
cyclone moves through a weakness in the ridge induced by the
southward-moving former Tropical Storm Odette. The new NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies
just to the east of the tightly packed consensus track models.

Some fluctuations in intensity will be possible during the next
24-36 hours owing to 5-10 kt fluctuations in the magnitude and also
the direction of the deep-layer vertical wind shear. However, by 48
hours and beyond, a slow weakening trend is expected due to the
shear increasing from the southwest and west-southwest of near 30
kt. The new official intensity forecast is essentially just an
update of the previous advisory, and closely follows the IVCN and
HCCA intensity consensus models.

Based on the latest track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, no
tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern
Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico at this time.
However, locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when
Peter is expected to pass to the north of these locations.


Key Messages:

Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may
lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Tuesday
across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward
Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 19.1N 59.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 19.7N 61.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 20.4N 63.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 21.4N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 22.4N 67.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 23.2N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 24.2N 68.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 26.2N 67.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 28.5N 66.8W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 200841
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021

Peter is a strongly sheared tropical storm. Reconnaissance wind
data, conventional satellite imagery, and passive microwave
satellite data indicate that Rose's center is located just to the
west of the deep convection. Data from the aircraft support holding
the intensity at 45 kt for now based on 925-mb flight-level and SFMR
winds of 53 kt and 41 kt, respectively, on their last leg when the
aircraft came in from the northeast. The central pressure had
also increased only slightly to 1006 mb.

Peter has continued to move west-northwestward, or 295/12 kt. There
are no significant changes to the previous track forecast or
reasoning. Rose is expected to move around the southwestern and
western periphery of a subtropical ridge for the next couple of
days, followed by a slow northward motion on days 3-5 as the
cyclone moves through a weakness in the ridge induced by the
southward-moving former Tropical Storm Odette. The new NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies
just to the east of the tightly packed consensus track models.

Some fluctuations in intensity will be possible during the next
24-36 hours owing to 5-10 kt fluctuations in the magnitude and also
the direction of the deep-layer vertical wind shear. However, by 48
hours and beyond, a slow weakening trend is expected due to the
shear increasing from the southwest and west-southwest of near 30
kt. The new official intensity forecast is essentially just an
update of the previous advisory, and closely follows the IVCN and
HCCA intensity consensus models.

Based on the latest track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, no
tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern
Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico at this time.
However, locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when
Peter is expected to pass to the north of these locations.


Key Messages:

Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may
lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Tuesday
across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward
Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 19.1N 59.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 19.7N 61.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 20.4N 63.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 21.4N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 22.4N 67.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 23.2N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 24.2N 68.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 26.2N 67.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 28.5N 66.8W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 200841
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS PETER HAS CHANGED LITTLE...
...TROPICAL STORM EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
EARLY THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 59.5W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 59.5 West. Peter is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of
days, followed by a turn to the northwest with a decrease in
forward speed on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km),
primarily to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm
Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally
higher amounts possible, across portions of the Northern Leeward
Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico
through Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small
stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Peter are expected to affect the northern
Leeward Islands early this week, and then reach the Bahamas by
midweek. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 200840
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021
0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 59.5W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 59.5W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 58.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.7N 61.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 63.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.4N 65.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.4N 67.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.2N 68.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.2N 68.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 26.2N 67.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 28.5N 66.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 59.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 200251
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021

Peter is a sheared tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery and microwave
data indicate that an earlier convective burst near the center of
Peter has collapsed tonight. Although the low-level center is now
displaced at least 60 n mi west of the edge of the convective cloud
mass, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating
Peter has found the cyclone is a bit stronger tonight. The aircraft
measured flight-level (925 mb) winds of 58 kt and SFMR winds of 45
kt or so. These data support raising the initial intensity to 45 kt
for this advisory.

Peter's wind field is very asymmetric, with tropical-storm-force
winds extending outward up to 120 n mi from the center only in its
northeast quadrant. The moderate to strong southwesterly vertical
wind shear that is plaguing the system is forecast to persist during
the next several days. Thus, despite sufficient oceanic heat content
along its forecast track, the official NHC intensity forecast does
not show any further intensification. In fact, some gradual
weakening is forecast since the system appears likely to struggle
sustaining organized convection near its center, as suggested by
GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery. The official NHC
intensity forecast has been adjusted upward in the near-term to
account for the stronger initial intensity, but otherwise closely
follows the HCCA and IVCN aids and shows gradual weakening this
week. While the official NHC forecast shows Peter remaining a
tropical cyclone through the forecast period, the GFS suggests
Peter could struggle to even maintain its closed low-level
circulation in the coming days. Therefore, it is plausible that the
cyclone could degenerate into an open wave and weaken somewhat
quicker than forecast.

Peter is moving west-northwestward, or 295/12 kt, along the
southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the central
Atlantic. This general motion should continue for the next couple of
days. Thereafter, the track forecast becomes more challenging. A
low- to mid-level ridge is expected to build over the western
Atlantic by midweek, which would keep the weakening cyclone on a
more northwestward trajectory. But, a mid-level shortwave is
forecast to drop southward and erode the southern extent of the
ridge, which should eventually draw Peter more northward during the
middle and latter parts of the week. There is more spread noted in
the track guidance at days 3-5, as the timing of this northward turn
is uncertain. The official NHC track forecast has been adjusted
slightly to the left of the previous one, and it lies near the
center of the guidance envelope and closer to the TVCA and HCCA
aids.

Based on the latest track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, no
tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern
Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico at this time.
However, locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when
Peter is expected to pass to the north of these locations.


Key Messages:

1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter
may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Tuesday
across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward
Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 18.6N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 19.3N 60.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 20.1N 62.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 21.0N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 22.0N 66.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 23.0N 67.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 23.9N 68.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 25.7N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 28.0N 67.5W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 200249
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND PETER A LITTLE STRONGER...
...PETER EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS
WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 58.5W
ABOUT 305 MI...485 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 58.5 West. Peter is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of
days, followed by a turn to the northwest with a decrease in
forward speed on Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the
next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm
Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally
higher amounts possible, across portions of the Northern Leeward
Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico
through Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small
stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Peter are expected to affect the northern
Leeward Islands early this week, and then reach the Bahamas by
midweek. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 200248
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021
0300 UTC MON SEP 20 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 58.5W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 58.5W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 58.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.3N 60.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.1N 62.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.0N 66.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.0N 67.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.9N 68.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 25.7N 68.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 28.0N 67.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 58.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 192039
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
500 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021

Over the past few hours deep convection with cloud tops as cold as
-85 degrees C have developed near and to the east of the center of
Peter. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating
the system earlier provided data during several legs of the flight
that confirmed an intensity of 40 kt. A blend of the latest Dvorak
T- and CI- numbers from TAFB are consistent with that data, and
therefore the initial intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory.

The vertical wind shear that stripped Peter of its deep convection
earlier today is forecast to increase further through tonight and
persist for at least a few days. Global model simulated satellite
imagery suggests this latest burst of convection will also become
removed from the center within several hours, with the cyclone
struggling to maintain persistent deep convection throughout much of
the 5-day forecast period. Therefore, despite being over very warm
waters, Peter is forecast to slowly weaken over the next several
days. The intensity model guidance is in decent agreement on this
scenario, and the NHC forecast remains near the various intensity
consensus solutions. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there
are some indications, particularly by the GFS, that Peter could open
back into a wave within a few days which adds some additional
uncertainty to the intensity forecast.

Peter's initial motion remains 290/15 kt. The storm is forecast to
continue to move in this west-northwestward direction for the next
couple of days as it is steered to the south of a subtropical ridge.
This ridge is expected to weaken in a few days which should cause
the cyclone to slow its forward motion and turn northwestward. Late
in the forecast period a turn to the north and possibly northeast
is expected to occur as Peter gets caught in the flow around a
large trough to its north. The model guidance has shifted westward
beyond day 2, in part due to a faster forward motion. While the
timing of the cyclone's turn to the north remains the same, the NHC
forecast was shifted to the left beyond 48 h, but still remains to
the east of the consensus.

Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical
storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward
Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. However, interests there
should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is
possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the
north of the area.


Key Messages:

1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter
may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding from late today
into Tuesday across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the
Northern Leeward Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 18.4N 57.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 19.1N 59.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 19.9N 62.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 20.8N 64.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 21.9N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 22.9N 67.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 24.1N 68.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 26.1N 68.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 27.7N 67.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 192039
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
500 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021

...PETER FENDING OFF STRONG WIND SHEAR...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 57.8W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 57.8 West. Peter is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general motion along with a gradual decrease in forward speed is
is expected through Tuesday. A turn to the northwest is expected
to occur by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Peter
is expected to pass well north of the Leeward Islands on Monday and
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight. Some slight
weakening is expected on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
primarily to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm
Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally
higher amounts possible, across portions of the Northern Leeward
Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico
through Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small
stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Peter are expected to
reach the northern Leeward Islands tonight and Monday, and then the
Bahamas by midweek. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 192039
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021
2100 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 57.8W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 57.8W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 57.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.1N 59.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.9N 62.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.8N 64.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.9N 66.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.9N 67.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.1N 68.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 26.1N 68.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 27.7N 67.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 57.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 191458
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021

Earlier this morning, Peter began to encounter increasing
southwesterly shear emanating from flow around an upper-level
trough to its northwest. This shear caused the low-level center of
the storm to separate from the deep convection and as of now is
located over 100 n mi from the edge of that band of convection. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating
the cyclone for the past few hours and has provided helpful data on
the structure and intensity of Peter. Based on the aircraft data,
tropical-storm-force winds extend at least 100 n mi to the northeast
of the center, while there are no tropical-storm-force winds in the
southern semicircle. The initial intensity of 40 kt is based on
aircraft passes through the northeastern quadrant that measured
peak 925 mb flight-level winds of 56 and 54 kt.

The initial motion is 290/15 kt. Peter is forecast to continue to
move in this west-northwestward direction for the next couple of
days as it is steered to the south of a subtropical ridge. This
ridge is expected to weaken in a few days which should cause the
cyclone to turn northwestward. Late in the forecast period a turn to
the north and possibly northeast is expected to occur as Peter gets
caught in the flow around a large trough to its north. As mentioned
in the special advisory discussion a couple hours ago, a shift to
the west-southwest of the track was required to accommodate a
initial position adjustment. Some additional southward adjustments
were made to the official NHC track for this advisory to come into
better agreement with a blend of the GFS/ECMWF solutions that also
indicate a shallower system.

The UW-CIMSS shear analysis suggests about 20 kt of southwesterly
shear is impacting Peter. Just to its west and northwest, where the
cyclone is heading, the shear is analyzed as 30 kt or greater.
Given that Peter is already exhibiting the structure of a highly
sheared tropical cyclone, some slight weakening is now forecast
tonight into tomorrow. There is quite a bit of spread in the
environmental forecast between the GFS and ECMWF beyond day 3, as
the GFS shows shear increasing to 40 kt, while the ECMWF indicates
a less hostile environment with 20 kt of shear. Assuming Peter
survives its interaction with the upper trough to its northwest
over the next few days, additional weakening is indicated
due to the ongoing shear. It should be noted that quite a few GFS
ensemble members open Peter into a trough by the end of the
forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is near the
various consensus solutions. However, due to the possibility the
cyclone may not survive the next few days, the confidence in this
forecast is lower than normal.

Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical
storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward
Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. However, interests there
should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is
possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the
north of the area.


Key Messages:

1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter
may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding from late today
into Tuesday across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the
Northern Leeward Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 17.6N 56.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 18.3N 58.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 19.2N 60.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 20.2N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 21.3N 64.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 22.5N 66.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 23.8N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 25.5N 67.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 27.2N 66.7W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 191455
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021
1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 56.5W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 56.5W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 55.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.3N 58.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.2N 60.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.2N 63.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.3N 64.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 66.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.8N 67.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.5N 67.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 27.2N 66.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 56.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 191455
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021

...DISHEVELED PETER HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 56.5W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 56.5 West. Peter is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general motion along with a gradual decrease in forward speed is
is expected through Tuesday. A turn to the northwest is expected
to occur by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Peter
is expected to pass well north of the Leeward Islands on Monday and
Tuesday.

Based on data from a Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft,
maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through today. Some
slight weakening is expected tonight into Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km),
primarily northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on the aircraft data
is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The outer bands south of the tropical storm could produce
rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts
possible across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including
the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico late today through
Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Peter are expected to
reach the northern Leeward Islands tonight and Monday. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 191253
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Peter Special Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
900 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021

Satellite imagery as well as data from a Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the center of Peter is over 100 n mi
west-southwest of its forecast position. Therefore, a special
advisory for track is being issued. The forecast track has been
adjusted through the first 60 h, resulting in a slight southward
adjustment of the track through the first couple of days. The
aircraft also measured 925 mb flight-level winds of 56 kt, which
supports an initial intensity of 40 kt. No adjustments were made
to the intensity forecast. The next full advisory will be issued at
1500 UTC.

Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical
storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward
Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. However, interests there
should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is
possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the
north of the area.

Key Messages:

1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter
may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding from late
Sunday into Tuesday across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the
Northern Leeward Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1300Z 17.6N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 18.2N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 19.3N 58.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 20.2N 61.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 21.3N 63.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 22.6N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 24.3N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 25.8N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 27.7N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 191247
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Peter Special Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
900 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021

...CENTER OF PETER FOUND FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...
...STILL EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 56.0W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM AST (1300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 56.0 West. Peter is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast
track, Peter is expected to pass well to the north of the northern
Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or
so, followed by a slow weakening trend by late Monday and on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (170 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The outer bands south of the Tropical Storm Peter could
produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the
Northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as
Puerto Rico late Sunday into Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to
areas of urban and small stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Peter are expected to
reach the northern Leeward Islands Sunday night and Monday. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 191247
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM PETER SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021
1300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 56.0W AT 19/1300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 56.0W AT 19/1300Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 53.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.2N 57.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.3N 58.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.2N 61.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.3N 63.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.6N 65.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.3N 65.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.8N 65.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 27.7N 65.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 56.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 190849
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
500 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021

Deep convection has increased since the previous advisory, with the
convective cloud pattern having taken on a more curved-band
configuration compared to the earlier shear pattern. Satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support increasing the
intensity to 35 kt. In addition, earlier ASCAT passes, which missed
the center of circulation, did reveal 30-kt winds west of the center
in convection-free areas. Thus, it is reasonable to assume that
stronger winds are occurring within the deep convection east of the
center, which further supports upgrading the system to Tropical
Storm Peter with a 35-kt intensity.

The initial estimate is an uncertain 305/13 kt. Peter has made a
slight jog to the north-northwest since the previous advisory, but
this is likely a short-term motion owing to the center redeveloping
farther to the north and east into the deep convection. However, a
west-northwestward motion is expected to resume later today.
Thereafter, the cyclone is forecast to maintain a west-northwestward
motion through Wednesday as Peter moves around the southwestern
periphery of a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge. On Thursday and
Friday, Peter is forecast to turn northward into a weakness in the
ridge induced by the large Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette. The new
forecast track has been shifted slightly to the right or north of
the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more northward
initial position, and lies close to the consensus track models TVCA
and HCCA.

Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours or so as
Peter moves over warmer sea-surface temperatures of about 29 deg C.
However, proximity to very dry mid-level air and moderate
deep-layer southwesterly vertical wind shear are expected to prevent
any significant or rapid strengthening. By early Tuesday and
beyond, slow weakening is expected to begin due to increasing wind
shear. The new official NHC intensity forecast is very similar to
the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the IVCN and
HCCA intensity consensus models.

Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical
storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward
Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. However, interests there
should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is
possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the
north of the area.

Key Messages:

1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter
may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding from late
Sunday into Tuesday across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the
Northern Leeward Islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 18.0N 53.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 18.8N 55.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 19.8N 57.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 20.8N 60.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 21.7N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 22.7N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 23.7N 64.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 25.8N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 27.7N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 190835
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
500 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021

...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE SIXTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 53.5W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 53.5 West. Peter is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn back toward the
west-northwest is forecast to occur by this afternoon, with that
motion continuing into Wednesday. On the forecast track, Peter
is expected to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward
Islands on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or
so, followed by a slow weakening trend by late Monday and on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center, mainly to the northeast and southeast of the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The outer bands south of the Tropical Storm Peter could
produce rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches across portions of the
Northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as
Puerto Rico late Sunday into Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to
areas of urban and small stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Peter are expected to
reach the northern Leeward Islands Sunday night and Monday. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 190835
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021
0900 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 53.5W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 53.5W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 52.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.8N 55.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.8N 57.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.8N 60.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.7N 62.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.7N 63.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.7N 64.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.8N 65.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 27.7N 65.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 53.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 190231
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of
low pressure that NHC has been monitoring to the east of the
northern Leeward Islands now has a well-defined center and
sufficiently organized deep convection to be classified a tropical
depression. The depression has a small area of deep convection near
its center and curved bands on its north and east sides. The
initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt, but this is a little
below the latest Dvorak classifications and could be conservative.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. The cyclone
should continue west-northwestward at about the same pace during the
next few days as it moves in the flow on the southwest side of a
mid-level ridge. After that time, the ridge is expected to break
down and the steering currents are forecast to become weak. Not
surprisingly, the spread in the models increases around that time,
but most of the solutions show a slow turn toward the north toward
broad troughing associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette. The
GFS is on the southern side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF
on the northern side. The NHC track forecast lies between those
models near the consensus aids.

Some strengthening seems possible during the next 12 to 24 hours and
the system is expected to become a tropical storm during that time
frame. However, an increase in southerly and then southwesterly
vertical wind shear should cause the system to level off in strength
from 24 hours through the end of the forecast period. The models
are in fairly good agreement on this overall scenario, and the NHC
intensity forecast is in line with the majority of the guidance.

Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical
storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward
Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. However, interests there
should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is
possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the
north of the area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 16.4N 53.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 17.3N 54.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 18.5N 57.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 19.4N 59.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 20.3N 61.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 21.3N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 22.3N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 24.4N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 26.3N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 190230
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 53.1W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen
was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 53.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue during the next few days.
On the forecast track, the depression is expected to pass to the
north of the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The outer bands of the depression could produce rainfall
totals of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the northern Leeward
Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico later
Sunday through Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and
small stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to reach the
northern Leeward Islands Sunday night and Monday. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 190230
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021
0300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 53.1W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 53.1W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 52.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.3N 54.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 57.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.4N 59.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.3N 61.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.3N 64.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 65.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 24.4N 66.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 26.3N 66.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 53.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>