Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for RAI-21 in Philippines from 13 Dec 2021 00:00 UTC to 20 Dec 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for RAI-21

in Philippines

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RAI-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2021-000202-PHL
Exposed countries	Philippines
Exposed population	13 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	259 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.4 m (16 Dec 07:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Philippines)
Landfall	between 16 Dec 2021 00:00 - 16 Dec 2021 06:00 in Philippines

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	74 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	259 km/h	1.4 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

74 km/h Current Max.

Up to 47.5 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	13 Dec 2021 00:00	157	41.1 million	4.7 million	Philippines
2	13 Dec 2021 06:00	167	76.4 million	7.4 million	Philippines
3	13 Dec 2021 12:00	167	85.9 million	14.5 million	Philippines
4	13 Dec 2021 18:00	185	85.6 million	11.7 million	Philippines
5	14 Dec 2021 00:00	176	85.3 million	15.3 million	Philippines
6	14 Dec 2021 06:00	185	61.3 million	13.6 million	Philippines
7	14 Dec 2021 12:00	176	84.8 million	14 million	Philippines
8	14 Dec 2021 18:00	167	50.1 million	11.7 million	Philippines
9	15 Dec 2021 00:00	176	63.7 million	12.4 million	Philippines
10	15 Dec 2021 06:00	167	46 million	8.1 million	Philippines
11	15 Dec 2021 12:00	176	65.7 million	3.6 million	Philippines
12	15 Dec 2021 18:00	176	65.8 million	3.6 million	Philippines
13	16 Dec 2021 00:00	259	49.9 million	7.2 million	Philippines
14	16 Dec 2021 06:00	241	52.7 million	8.3 million	Philippines
15	16 Dec 2021 12:00	213	51.2 million	13 million	Philippines
16	16 Dec 2021 18:00	204	52.2 million	12.9 million	Philippines
17	17 Dec 2021 00:00	185	53.9 million	13 million	Philippines
18	17 Dec 2021 06:00	176	53.9 million	13 million	Philippines
19	17 Dec 2021 12:00	167	55.7 million	13 million	Philippines
20	17 Dec 2021 18:00	111	50.2 million	13 million	Philippines
21	18 Dec 2021 00:00	204	43.5 million	13 million	Philippines
22	18 Dec 2021 06:00	204	43.7 million	13 million	Philippines
23	18 Dec 2021 12:00	213	45.4 million	13 million	Philippines
28	19 Dec 2021 18:00	167	92.4 million	13 million	Philippines
29	20 Dec 2021 00:00	130	57.4 million	13 million	Philippines
30	20 Dec 2021 06:00	83	47.5 million	13 million	Philippines
31	20 Dec 2021 12:00	46	47.5 million	13 million	Philippines
32	20 Dec 2021 18:00	74	47.5 million	13 million	Philippines

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	13 Dec 2021 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	5.1, 141.7
2	13 Dec 2021 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	5.2, 141
3	13 Dec 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	1200 people	6, 139.8
4	13 Dec 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	31000 people	6.8, 138.6
5	14 Dec 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	21000 people	7.4, 136.9
6	14 Dec 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	21000 people	7.6, 135.3
7	14 Dec 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	21000 people	8.5, 134.5
8	14 Dec 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	21000 people	8.8, 133.3
9	15 Dec 2021 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	380000 people	8.9, 132.3
10	15 Dec 2021 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	3 million people	9.1, 131
11	15 Dec 2021 12:00	Category 1	148	no people	21.8 million people	9.4, 130
12	15 Dec 2021 18:00	Category 2	157	880000 people	42.3 million people	9.5, 128.3
13	16 Dec 2021 00:00	Category 5	259	1.3 million people	29.6 million people	9.7, 127.5
14	16 Dec 2021 06:00	Category 4	241	7.3 million people	36.2 million people	9.9, 126	Philippines
15	16 Dec 2021 12:00	Category 4	213	11.7 million people	32.3 million people	10.1, 124.3	Philippines
16	16 Dec 2021 18:00	Category 3	204	3.7 million people	24.6 million people	10.2, 122.5
17	17 Dec 2021 00:00	Category 3	185	370000 people	9.1 million people	10, 121.1
18	17 Dec 2021 06:00	Category 2	176	360000 people	1.2 million people	10.1, 119.9
19	17 Dec 2021 12:00	Category 2	167	98000 people	1.2 million people	10.3, 118.5
20	17 Dec 2021 18:00	Category 3	185	<1000 people	910000 people	10.7, 117.3
21	18 Dec 2021 00:00	Category 3	204	<1000 people	<1000 people	11, 115.9
22	18 Dec 2021 06:00	Category 3	204	<1000 people	1700 people	11.2, 114.8
23	18 Dec 2021 12:00	Category 4	213	no people	1700 people	11.9, 113.5
28	19 Dec 2021 18:00	Category 2	167	no people	13.1 million people	16, 110.6
29	20 Dec 2021 00:00	Category 1	130	no people	6.9 million people	17.3, 110.9
30	20 Dec 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	2.7 million people	18.3, 111.8
31	20 Dec 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	18.8, 112.5
32	20 Dec 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	19.8, 113
32	21 Dec 2021 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	21.1, 115.2
32	21 Dec 2021 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	21.9, 118.1

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Source: GADM and GHSL

Provinces

Source: GADM and GHSL

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.