Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for RAI-21
in Philippines

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone RAI-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1000853
Name RAI-21
Glide number: TC-2021-000202-PHL
From - To 13 Dec - 20 Dec
Exposed countries Philippines
Exposed population 13 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 259 km/h Category 5
Maximum storm surge 1.4 m (16 Dec 07:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Philippines)


For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS 259 km/h 1.4 m n.a. 2.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 252 km/h 1.4 m 632 mm 2.5
GFS 223 km/h 1.3 m 790 mm 2.5
ECMWF 162 km/h 0.7 m 882 mm 1.5
Beta Version - All weather systems in the area: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Federated States of Micronesia, Palau - Tropical Depression TWENTYEIGHT (ECHO 13 Dec 2021)Mon, 13 Dec 2021 13:25

  • The newly formed tropical depression TWENTYEIGHT is moving westwards over the western Pacific. On 13 December, at 0.00 UTC, its centre was located about 350 km south-east of Sorol Island (Caroline Islands,  Federated States of Micronesia), and 810 km south-east of Palau, with maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h.
  • In the morning of 13 December, TWENTYEIGHT is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm, as it continues westwards over the Pacific Ocean, passing south of Sorol. Afterwards, it is expected to pass over Palau in the midday of 14 December, with maximum sustained winds up to 110 km/h. 
  • Warnings for coastal floods and high waves have been issued for Palau. From 13 December, moderate to heavy rain with strong winds are forecast over the Federated States of Micronesia and Palau.
Palau, Philippines - Tropical Storm RAI, update (ECHO 14 Dec 2021)Tue, 14 Dec 2021 12:42

  • Tropical storm RAI (locally known in the Philippines as Odette) is intensifying, as it moves westwards over the western Pacific. On 14 December at 0.00 UTC, its centre was located about 250 km east of Palau, with maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h. 
  • During the morning of 14 December, RAI is expected to further intensify, as it passes north of Palau. Then it is forecast to move towards the Philippines, reaching the Eastern Visayas in the morning of 16 December, with maximum sustained winds up to 175 km/h. In the Philippines, national authorities have started with preparedness and response measures, ahead of the arrival of RAI.
  • A typhoon warning is in effect for Palau. On 14 December, heavy rain and strong winds are expected for Palau, and from 15 December for central and southern Philippines.
Philippines - Tropical Cyclone RAI, update (ECHO 15 Dec 2021)Wed, 15 Dec 2021 11:51

  • After passing north of Palau, tropical cyclone RAI (also known as "Odette") is moving westwards over the western Pacific Ocean. On 15 December, at 0.00 UTC, its centre was located about 650 km east from the eastern coast of Mindanao Island (southern Philippines), with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h.
  • RAI is forecast to intensify and could make landfall in the morning of 16 December in an area between North-Eastern Mindanao or Eastern Visayas. Local authorities are putting in place all the final preparedness measures.
  • According to UN OCHA, close to 16 million people live in the five regions of central and southern Philippines, which are expected to be most affected by the passage of RAI.
  • A tropical cyclone wind signal 2 (damaging winds expected within 24 hours) has been issued for areas in northern Mindanao, while a tropical cyclone wind signal 1 (strong winds expected within 36 hours) is in effect for southern Luzon, Visayas and the rest of Mindanao.
  • From 16 December, heavy to very heavy rain and strong winds are forecast over central and southern Philippines.
Philippines - Tropical Cyclone RAI, update (ECHO 16 Dec 2021)Thu, 16 Dec 2021 11:48

  • Tropical cyclone RAI is approaching the southern Philippines, and on 16 December at 0.00 UTC, its centre was located about 150 km northeast of Tandag City (Caraga Region, northeastern Mindanao), with maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h.
  • The preparedness activity conducted by the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) is ongoing. According to media reports, tens of thousands of people are being evacuated from their homes in central and southern Philippines.
  • RAI is forecast to make landfall over Siargao Island (Caraga Region) on 16 December morning, after that it will cross Central and Western Visayas Regions. 
  • Tropical cyclone wind signals from 1 (strong winds) to 4 (very destructive typhoon-force winds) have been issued for most areas in Visayas, Mindanao and Luzon. On 16-17 December, heavy to very heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge are forecast over the southern, central and western Philippines.
  • DG ECHO partners on the ground are monitoring the situation and assisting the local Government Units in the response.
Philippines - Tropical Cyclone RAI, update (ECHO 17 Dec 2021)Fri, 17 Dec 2021 11:51

  • After first approaching Surigao del Norte Province, in the afternoon of 16 December, Tropical Cyclone RAI crossed central-southern Philippines, specifically the Visayas and Mindanao Islands, with maximum sustained winds between 200-240 km/h. As of 17 December at 0.00 UTC, its centre was located in the Sulu Sea.
  • According to media, at least three people have died, while national authorities (DSWD-DROMIC) report that 47,358 people have been displaced to evacuation centres. The passage of RAI has affected about 67,650 persons across the Regions of Eastern Visayas, Northern Mindanao, Davao, and Caraga.
  • RAI is forecast to make another landfall in the morning of 17 December over Palawan Islands, and then it will strengthen as it subsequently enters the South China Sea on late 17 December.
  • NDRRMC reports 332,855 persons pre-emptively evacuated. The Local Government Units have provided food assistance to the evacuees. The Philippine Red Cross supports with hot meals. DG ECHO partners support in coordination, camp management, and food and non-food item distribution.
  • The Humanitarian Country Team (HCT) convenes to discuss impact of the typhoon and possible response operation when needed.


Philippines, China - Tropical Cyclone RAI, update (ECHO 20 Dec 2021)Mon, 20 Dec 2021 12:04

  • On 20 December at 0.00 UTC, Tropical Cyclone Rai was approximately 150km southeast of Hainan Island (southeastern China) with maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h.
  • At least 208 people have died and 52 are still missing following its passage across Visayas and Mindanao Islands (The Philippines). The Philippines Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) reports more than 630,000 displaced (of which 438,359 in 2,841 evacuation centres) and 1,805,000 affected across nine regions of central-southern Philippines. 54,783 houses were damaged, 20,102 damaged and 34,681 partially damaged.
  • RAI will continue over the northern South China Sea before dissipating on 21 December.
  • Heavy rain and strong winds are forecast for Paracel Islands, Hainan Island, Guangdong, southern Fujian, eastern and western parts of Guangxi. A blue Typhoon warning is in effect for these southeastern Chinese regions. 
  • DG ECHO's partners present in the most affected areas are already providing initial emergency assistance and additional emergency humanitarian financing will be mobilised in the coming hours.
Philippines - Tropical Cyclone RAI, update (ECHO 21 Dec 2021)Tue, 21 Dec 2021 12:01

  • Needs assessments are ongoing following the devastating passage of Typhoon RAI across the central-southern Philippines on 16-17 December 2021. DG ECHO's antenna office in The Philippines carried out a field assessment on 18- 20 December.
  • As of 21 December, 375 people have died but many are still missing. At least 1,200,000 people are affected according to initial reports and 490,000 people are displaced. There are approximately 30,000 houses damaged. The number of affected people in need, including displaced people, and damaged houses and infrastructure is expected to rise significantly in the coming days/weeks, as access to the affected areas is still very limited. 
  • Immediate humanitarian needs include food, WASH, shelter, health, NFIs, cash, medical supplies, as well as protection services.
  • On 21 December, DG ECHO allocated an initial €1.7 million in emergency humanitarian financing to support immediate response efforts. Humanitarian partners are already on the ground supporting those affected.
RAI-21 - Copernicus EMS activation (EMSR556)Thu, 23 Dec 2021 16:39

EMSR556: Copernicus Emergency Management Service has been activated
Detailed event map. European Union, 2022. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EMSR (2), EC-JRC (38), (1), WMO (1), INFORM (2),