Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for EMNATI-22 in Madagascar from 16 Feb 2022 18:00 UTC to 17 Feb 2022 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for EMNATI-22

in Madagascar

17 Feb 2022 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EMNATI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2022-000175-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	2.2 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	204 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (21 Feb 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	167 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	204 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

167 km/h Current Max.

Up to 83000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 18:00	176	1.3 million	No people	Mauritius
2	17 Feb 2022 00:00	185	2.1 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
3	17 Feb 2022 12:00	167	10.4 million	80 thousand	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	16 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-14.1, 68.4
2	17 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-14.2, 67.8
3	17 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.9, 64.2
3	18 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-14, 62.5
3	18 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-14.7, 61
3	19 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-15.5, 59.4
3	19 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	-16.3, 57.9
3	20 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 2	176	no people	780000 people	-17.2, 55.5
3	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 2	167	83000 people	10.4 million people	-17.9, 52.8
3	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-18.8, 49.7

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Toamasina	Madagascar

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Andevoranto		Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Andrangazaha, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 21 Feb 2022 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (29 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 3 of 17 Feb 2022 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 05:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 05:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 05:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 04:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 04:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 07:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 07:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 04:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.