Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ORLENE-22
in Mexico
30 Sep 2022 15 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone ORLENE-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population 110 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 213 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (03 Oct 12:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
    Landfall between
    03 Oct 2022 12:00 - 04 Oct 2022 12:00
    in Mexico

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 157 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 213 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      157 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 3800 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 29 Sep 2022 03:00 139 930 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 2 29 Sep 2022 09:00 139 1.8 million No people Mexico
        Orange 3 29 Sep 2022 15:00 120 1.8 million 810 thousand Mexico
        Green 4 29 Sep 2022 21:00 157 2 million 90 thousand Mexico
        Green 5 30 Sep 2022 03:00 157 2.1 million 40 thousand Mexico
        Green 6 30 Sep 2022 09:00 167 710 thousand 3 thousand Mexico
        Green 7 30 Sep 2022 15:00 157 920 thousand 4 thousand Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 29 Sep 2022 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.4, -103.7
          GREEN
          		 2 29 Sep 2022 09:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.8, -104.9
          GREEN
          		 3 29 Sep 2022 15:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 15.1, -105.9
          GREEN
          		 4 29 Sep 2022 21:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 15.4, -106.5
          GREEN
          		 5 30 Sep 2022 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 15.6, -106.7
          GREEN
          		 6 30 Sep 2022 09:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 15.9, -106.9
          GREEN
          		 7 30 Sep 2022 15:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 16.1, -107.1
          GREEN
          		 7 01 Oct 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 16.7, -107.3
          GREEN
          		 7 01 Oct 2022 12:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 17.5, -107.3
          GREEN
          		 7 02 Oct 2022 00:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 18.4, -107.2
          GREEN
          		 7 02 Oct 2022 12:00 Category 2 157 3300 people 31000 people 19.7, -107
          GREEN
          		 7 03 Oct 2022 00:00 Category 1 139 3800 people 780000 people 21.4, -106.6 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 7 03 Oct 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 800000 people 22.9, -106.4
          GREEN
          		 7 04 Oct 2022 12:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 25.1, -106 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
          Mexico 3300 people

          Provinces

          Region Province Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
          Nayarit Mexico 3300 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Isla Maria Madre 5 0
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.3 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Jarilla, Mexico. This height is estimated for 03 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (16 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 7 of 30 Sep 2022 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          03 Oct 2022 12:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.3
          03 Oct 2022 12:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.3
          03 Oct 2022 12:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.3
          03 Oct 2022 15:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.3
          03 Oct 2022 12:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.3
          03 Oct 2022 14:00 Barron Mexico  0.3
          03 Oct 2022 09:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.3
          03 Oct 2022 07:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.3
          03 Oct 2022 14:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.3
          03 Oct 2022 12:00 Novillero Mexico  0.2
          03 Oct 2022 08:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
          03 Oct 2022 12:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
          03 Oct 2022 17:00 Florida Mexico  0.2
          03 Oct 2022 08:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
          03 Oct 2022 05:00 San Blas Mexico  0.1
          03 Oct 2022 19:00 Marmol Mexico  0.1