Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for CHENESO-23 in Madagascar from 18 Jan 2023 04:00 UTC to 10:00

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23

in Madagascar

18 Jan 2023 10 UTC

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Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	169 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (19 Jan 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 18 Jan 2023 22:00 - 19 Jan 2023 10:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	106 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	169 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind

106 km/h Current Max.

Up to 4.4 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
	1	18 Jan 2023 04:00	95	4.1 million	No people	Madagascar
	2	18 Jan 2023 10:00	106	4.4 million	No people	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Category (WMO/RSMC) **	Max winds (km/h) (WMO/RSMC)	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	18 Jan 2023 04:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-13.9, 56
2	18 Jan 2023 10:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-13.7, 54.5
2	18 Jan 2023 22:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	670000 people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-13.8, 51.6
2	19 Jan 2023 10:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	1.5 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-14.2, 50.3	Madagascar
2	19 Jan 2023 22:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	1.3 million people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-15.1, 49.2	Madagascar
2	20 Jan 2023 10:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	650000 people	Overland Depression	56	-16, 48.5	Madagascar
2	20 Jan 2023 22:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	980000 people	Overland Depression	56	-16.6, 48.4	Madagascar
2	21 Jan 2023 10:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	1.1 million people	Overland Depression	56	-17.2, 48.4	Madagascar
2	21 Jan 2023 22:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	1.6 million people	Overland Depression	56	-17.6, 48.6	Madagascar
2	22 Jan 2023 10:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	1.1 million people	Overland Depression	56	-18.1, 48.9	Madagascar
2	22 Jan 2023 22:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	1.2 million people	Overland Depression	56	-18.7, 49.3	Madagascar
2	23 Jan 2023 10:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-19.5, 49.8

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Madagascar	4.3 million people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Antsiranana	Madagascar	810000 people
Toamasina	Madagascar	2.6 million people
Mahajanga	Madagascar	880000 people
Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	71000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Sambava	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	31000 people
Antalaha	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	34000 people
Andapa	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	20000 people
Maroantsetra	Toamasina	Madagascar	City	24000 people
Mandritsara	Mahajanga	Madagascar	City	-
Tamatave	Toamasina	Madagascar	City	200000 people
Moramanga	Toamasina	Madagascar	City	29000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Sambava	SVB	6	Civ.	Paved	No	5900
Antalaha Antsirabato	ANM	6	Civ.	Paved	No	3900
Andapa	ZWA	473	Civ.	Paved	No	4100
Doany	DOA	unknown				0
Maroantsetra	WMN	4	Civ.	Paved	No	4200
Bealanana	WBE	1120				0
Mandritsara	WMA	307	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3700
Befandriana	WBD	250	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4100
Toamasina	TMM	6	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7200
Ambatondrazaka	WAM	766	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4200
Vatomandry	VAT	12	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3800
Atsinanana	ILK	10	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3200
Mahanoro	VVB	5	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4400

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Sambava	MGSVB	Madagascar
Antataha	MGANM	Madagascar
Maroantsetra	MGWMN	Madagascar
Tamatave (Toamasina)	MGTMM	Madagascar
Andevoranto		Madagascar
Vatomandry	MGVAT	Madagascar
Mahanoro	MGVVB	Madagascar

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Sahamaloto	Sahamaloto	1958
	Antanifotsy	Antanifotsy	1958

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Manambia, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 19 Jan 2023 16:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (121 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 1 of 18 Jan 2023 04:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 17:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 17:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Ambodipont-Sahana	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 14:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Andrapengy	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2023 01:00	Tampina	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2023 07:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2023 07:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2023 07:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2023 07:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2023 07:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2023 07:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2023 07:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 17:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2023 11:00	Bobasakoa	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2023 00:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2023 00:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2023 00:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2023 00:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2023 07:00	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Amborimalana	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2023 01:00	Ampanotoamaizina	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 15:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 00:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2023 22:00	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2023 22:00	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2023 04:00	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 14:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2023 06:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2023 06:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 14:00	Antongompatatra	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 14:00	Bemanevika	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 14:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2023 22:00	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2023 06:00	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 14:00	Antohamaro	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 17:00	Ampaha	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 14:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2023 01:00	Vavony	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 15:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2023 05:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 17:00	Ankazomalemy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 15:00	Farahalana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2023 22:00	Ankarefo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2023 14:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 17:00	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2023 22:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2023 04:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 15:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 14:00	Ampana Kanana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 17:00	Ambinany	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2023 21:00	Marofinaritra	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2023 02:00	Kalomalala	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2023 01:00	Ambila-Lemaitso	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2023 14:00	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Anjahamarina	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2023 15:00	Antetezambaro	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2023 15:00	Ambodihariha	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 15:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 18:00	Antalaha	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2023 04:00	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2023 04:00	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2023 22:00	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2023 14:00	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2023 06:00	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2023 06:00	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Ambohitralanana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2023 18:00	Tamatave	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2023 09:00	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2023 09:00	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 19:00	Ratsianarana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 19:00	Ambodivato	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2023 22:00	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2023 03:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2023 05:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2023 05:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2023 06:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2023 06:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 14:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 17:00	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 17:00	Fararano	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 17:00	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 14:00	Sambava	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2023 15:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2023 15:00	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 17:00	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2023 20:00	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2023 02:00	Amboditafara	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 15:00	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 15:00	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Jan 2023 08:00	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2023 01:00	Ampitabe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2023 02:00	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.