Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for GAMANE-24 in Madagascar from 25 Mar 2024 18:00 UTC to 26 Mar 2024 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GAMANE-24

in Madagascar

26 Mar 2024 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GAMANE-24 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	560 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	169 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (27 Mar 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 27 Mar 2024 00:00 - 27 Mar 2024 12:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	190 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	169 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind

190 km/h Current Max.

Up to 340000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	25 Mar 2024 18:00	211	4.4 million	3 thousand	Madagascar
2	26 Mar 2024 00:00	179	2.2 million	440 thousand	Madagascar
3	26 Mar 2024 00:00	95	4 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
4	26 Mar 2024 06:00	190	3.3 million	580 thousand	Madagascar
5	26 Mar 2024 12:00	190	3.8 million	340 thousand	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Category (WMO/RSMC) **	Max winds (km/h) (WMO/RSMC)	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	25 Mar 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-12.8, 51.5
1	25 Mar 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	200000 people	Tropical Depression	56	-12.8, 51.1
2	25 Mar 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-12.8, 51.1
2	26 Mar 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	1.3 million people	Tropical Depression	56	-12.8, 50.9
3	26 Mar 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	4 million people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-12.5, 50.9
4	26 Mar 2024 06:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	1.4 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-12.4, 50.6
5	26 Mar 2024 12:00	Category 1	127	no people	490000 people	Severe Tropical Storm	111	-12.4, 50.8
5	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Category 2	169	160000 people	1.3 million people	Tropical Cyclone	148	-13.1, 50.7
5	27 Mar 2024 12:00	Category 3	190	340000 people	1.5 million people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	167	-13.5, 50.2	Madagascar
5	28 Mar 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	1.5 million people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-14.2, 49.7	Madagascar
5	28 Mar 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	1.1 million people	Overland Depression	56	-15, 49.7	Madagascar
5	29 Mar 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	260000 people	Overland Depression	56	-16, 50.4	Madagascar
5	29 Mar 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-16.3, 51.9
5	30 Mar 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-16.7, 53.5
5	30 Mar 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-17.6, 54.8
5	31 Mar 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	1.3 million people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-18.7, 55.8
5	31 Mar 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-20, 57.3

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Madagascar	310000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Antsiranana	Madagascar	310000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Vohemar	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Vohemar	VOH	6	Civ.	Paved	No	4200

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Vohemar		Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Andohonko, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 27 Mar 2024 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (23 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 5 of 26 Mar 2024 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.3
	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.3
	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.2
	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Andringahely	Madagascar	0.1
	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Ampondrabe	Madagascar	0.1
	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Ampondrahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Irodo	Madagascar	0.1
	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Ambaritsatrana	Madagascar	0.1
	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Ampisikanana	Madagascar	0.1
	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Andrafiamadinika	Madagascar	0.1
	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Ambolobozokely	Madagascar	0.1
	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Lokia	Madagascar	0.1
	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Ambatoharanana	Madagascar	0.1
	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Antanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Ampondra	Madagascar	0.1
	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Vohemar	Madagascar	0.1
	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Amboanio	Madagascar	0.1
	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.