Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for MELISSA-25 in Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, Bermuda, Haiti, Canada from 21 Oct 2025 15:00 UTC to 31 Oct 2025 15:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for MELISSA-25

in Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, Bermuda, Haiti, Canada

31 Oct 2025 15 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MELISSA-25 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2025-000196-HTI
Exposed countries	Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, Bermuda, Haiti, Canada
Exposed population	2.8 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	296 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.1 m (28 Oct 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Jamaica)
Landfall	between 29 Oct 2025 15:00 - 29 Oct 2025 21:00 in Bahamas

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	139 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	296 km/h	1.1 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

139 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.8 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	21 Oct 2025 15:00	130	4.6 million	No people	Haiti, Jamaica
2	21 Oct 2025 21:00	139	4.7 million	No people	Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba, United States
3	22 Oct 2025 03:00	139	4.6 million	No people	Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba, United States
4	22 Oct 2025 09:00	167	4.1 million	No people	Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba
5	22 Oct 2025 15:00	194	4 million	No people	Haiti, Jamaica
6	22 Oct 2025 21:00	213	3.2 million	No people	Haiti, Jamaica
7	23 Oct 2025 03:00	213	2.8 million	No people	Jamaica
8	23 Oct 2025 09:00	213	3.6 million	No people	Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba
9	23 Oct 2025 15:00	194	4.7 million	40 thousand	Jamaica
10	23 Oct 2025 21:00	231	5.8 million	270 thousand	Jamaica
11	24 Oct 2025 03:00	213	9.3 million	1000 thousand	Jamaica
12	24 Oct 2025 09:00	231	9.3 million	220 thousand	Jamaica, Cuba
13	24 Oct 2025 15:00	241	8.8 million	1.8 million	Jamaica, Cuba
14	24 Oct 2025 21:00	250	16.5 million	4.2 million	Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba, United States
15	25 Oct 2025 03:00	250	15.1 million	4.3 million	Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas
16	25 Oct 2025 09:00	250	13.6 million	3.5 million	Haiti, Jamaica, United States, Cuba, Bahamas
17	25 Oct 2025 15:00	241	8.9 million	3.4 million	Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba, United States, Bahamas
18	25 Oct 2025 21:00	259	12.3 million	3.7 million	Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba, United States, Bahamas
19	26 Oct 2025 03:00	259	10.9 million	3.8 million	Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Bahamas
20	26 Oct 2025 09:00	250	10 million	4 million	Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Bahamas
21	26 Oct 2025 15:00	259	10 million	3.7 million	Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Bahamas
22	26 Oct 2025 21:00	259	10.5 million	3.3 million	Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Bermuda
23	27 Oct 2025 03:00	259	10.3 million	3.1 million	Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Bermuda
24	27 Oct 2025 09:00	259	10.2 million	3.1 million	Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Bermuda
25	27 Oct 2025 15:00	269	9.9 million	3.1 million	Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Bermuda
26	27 Oct 2025 21:00	269	9 million	3.5 million	Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Bermuda
27	28 Oct 2025 03:00	278	8.9 million	3 million	Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Bermuda
28	28 Oct 2025 09:00	278	8.9 million	3.5 million	Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Bermuda
29	28 Oct 2025 15:00	296	8.9 million	3.4 million	Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Bermuda
30	28 Oct 2025 21:00	231	8.6 million	2.7 million	Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas
31	29 Oct 2025 03:00	213	10.4 million	2.9 million	Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, Bahamas
32	29 Oct 2025 09:00	185	9.4 million	2.7 million	Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, Bahamas
33	29 Oct 2025 15:00	167	9.5 million	2.8 million	Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, Haiti
34	29 Oct 2025 21:00	167	9.5 million	2.8 million	Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, Haiti, Canada
35	30 Oct 2025 03:00	167	9.5 million	3.1 million	Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, Haiti, Canada
36	30 Oct 2025 09:00	176	9.5 million	3 million	Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, Haiti, Canada
37	30 Oct 2025 15:00	167	9.7 million	3 million	Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, Bermuda, Haiti, Canada
38	30 Oct 2025 21:00	167	9.7 million	2.8 million	Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, Bermuda, Haiti, Canada
39	31 Oct 2025 03:00	157	9.8 million	2.8 million	Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, Bermuda, Haiti, Canada
40	31 Oct 2025 09:00	148	9.6 million	2.8 million	Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, Bermuda, Haiti
41	31 Oct 2025 15:00	139	9.7 million	2.8 million	Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, Bermuda, Haiti, Canada

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	21 Oct 2025 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.3, -71.7
2	21 Oct 2025 21:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.2, -73
3	22 Oct 2025 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.2, -74
4	22 Oct 2025 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.3, -73.5
5	22 Oct 2025 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.4, -73.6
6	22 Oct 2025 21:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.4, -74.3
7	23 Oct 2025 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.3, -74.6
8	23 Oct 2025 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15, -74.9
9	23 Oct 2025 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.4, -74.9
10	23 Oct 2025 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.6, -75.5
11	24 Oct 2025 03:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	89000 people	16.2, -75.5
12	24 Oct 2025 09:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	16, -75.5
13	24 Oct 2025 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.7, -74.6
14	24 Oct 2025 21:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	540000 people	16, -74.3
15	25 Oct 2025 03:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	1.1 million people	16.1, -74.9
16	25 Oct 2025 09:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	1.4 million people	16.3, -75
17	25 Oct 2025 15:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	1.3 million people	16.5, -75.1
18	25 Oct 2025 21:00	Category 1	148	no people	3.9 million people	16.6, -75.5
19	26 Oct 2025 03:00	Category 3	185	no people	2.8 million people	16.4, -75.9
20	26 Oct 2025 09:00	Category 4	222	no people	2.8 million people	16.3, -76.3
21	26 Oct 2025 15:00	Category 4	222	no people	2.8 million people	16.4, -76.6
22	26 Oct 2025 21:00	Category 4	231	no people	2.8 million people	16.4, -77.2
23	27 Oct 2025 03:00	Category 4	231	no people	2.8 million people	16.3, -77.5
24	27 Oct 2025 09:00	Category 5	259	no people	2.8 million people	16.4, -77.8
25	27 Oct 2025 15:00	Category 5	269	no people	2.8 million people	16.4, -78.2
26	27 Oct 2025 21:00	Category 5	278	no people	2.8 million people	16.7, -78.4
27	28 Oct 2025 03:00	Category 5	278	no people	2.9 million people	16.6, -78.5
28	28 Oct 2025 09:00	Category 5	278	1 million people	4.6 million people	17.2, -78.3
29	28 Oct 2025 15:00	Category 5	296	1.1 million people	7.5 million people	17.9, -77.9	Jamaica
30	28 Oct 2025 21:00	Category 4	231	1000000 people	7.9 million people	18.5, -77.7	Jamaica
31	29 Oct 2025 03:00	Category 4	213	1.9 million people	8.6 million people	19.3, -76.6
32	29 Oct 2025 09:00	Category 3	185	1.7 million people	7.9 million people	20.3, -76.1	Cuba
33	29 Oct 2025 15:00	Category 2	157	170000 people	4.8 million people	21.4, -75.6
34	29 Oct 2025 21:00	Category 1	148	3800 people	1.5 million people	22.9, -74.8	Bahamas
35	30 Oct 2025 03:00	Category 2	157	<1000 people	29000 people	24.3, -74.3
36	30 Oct 2025 09:00	Category 2	167	no people	7200 people	25.8, -73.4
37	30 Oct 2025 15:00	Category 2	167	no people	64000 people	27.8, -71.7
38	30 Oct 2025 21:00	Category 2	167	no people	64000 people	30.2, -69.7
39	31 Oct 2025 03:00	Category 2	157	no people	64000 people	32.8, -67.5
40	31 Oct 2025 09:00	Category 1	148	no people	64000 people	35.9, -64
41	31 Oct 2025 15:00	Category 1	139	no people	470000 people	39, -60.5
41	01 Nov 2025 00:00	Category 1	130	1900 people	660000 people	43.5, -55.2
41	01 Nov 2025 12:00	Category 1	120	no people	480000 people	49.4, -48
41	02 Nov 2025 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	53.2, -41.8
41	02 Nov 2025 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	55, -35.8
41	03 Nov 2025 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	56.2, -29.7
41	03 Nov 2025 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	57.5, -24.4
41	04 Nov 2025 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	60.5, -16.5

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.