Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MELISSA-25
in Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, Bermuda, Haiti, Canada

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 311601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 31.10.2025

HURRICANE MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 37.4N 62.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.10.2025 0 37.4N 62.3W 971 60
0000UTC 01.11.2025 12 43.6N 55.2W 968 55
1200UTC 01.11.2025 24 49.7N 46.9W 965 49
0000UTC 02.11.2025 36 53.3N 42.8W 953 51
1200UTC 02.11.2025 48 54.5N 37.0W 955 44
0000UTC 03.11.2025 60 POST-TROPICAL


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 311600


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 311600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 31.10.2025

HURRICANE MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 37.4N 62.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.10.2025 37.4N 62.3W STRONG
00UTC 01.11.2025 43.6N 55.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.11.2025 49.7N 46.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.11.2025 53.3N 42.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.11.2025 54.5N 37.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.11.2025 POST-TROPICAL


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 311600


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 311443
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 31 2025

Melissa no longer possesses organized convection, and is now merging
with a warm front extending eastward and a cold front extending
toward the southwest. Therefore, Melissa is now a post-tropical
cyclone. Melissa still has hurricane-force winds, especially in
the southeastern semicircle, as shown in Thursday evening ASCAT data
and also shown in the latest global model fields for the current
time of 15Z. The initial intensity is lowered slightly to 75 kt,
mainly based on forecast continuity. Large swells from Melissa are
spreading over much of the western Atlantic, resulting in hazardous
marine conditions in this region.

The post-tropical cyclone is racing northeastward, or 40 degrees at
42 kt. This motion should continue into Saturday within the flow
ahead of an upper-level trough. Track guidance is in excellent
agreement that the center of post-tropical Melissa will pass near,
but to the southeast of, the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland late
tonight, bringing the potential for some gusty winds and heavy rain.
Later this weekend, Melissa is forecast to turn east-northeastward
while interacting with a higher-latitude, upper-level low over the
North Atlantic. Very little change has been made to the NHC track
forecast, which lies very close to the average of the GFS and ECMWF
deterministic models (GFEX).

Global models indicate that Melissa will continue to be a large and
strong extratropical cyclone for the next couple of days as it
traverses the North Atlantic. Only gradual weakening is expected
through the weekend, with the system forecast to have
hurricane-force winds for another 24 h and still be a storm-force
cyclone in 60 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is at the high end
of the guidance suite through 60 hours. By early next week, global
models show the large system weakening further as it begins to join
up with a large and elongated area of low pressure over the far
northeastern Atlantic, and the system should be absorbed and
dissipated just beyond the 96-hour point.


Key Messages:

1. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid
areas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During
clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 39.0N 60.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 01/0000Z 43.5N 55.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 01/1200Z 49.4N 48.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 02/0000Z 53.2N 41.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 02/1200Z 55.0N 35.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 03/0000Z 56.2N 29.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 03/1200Z 57.5N 24.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/1200Z 60.5N 16.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 311442
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 31 2025

...MELISSA BECOMES A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.0N 60.5W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 48 MPH...78 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.

A brief period of heavy rain and gusty winds is possible over the
southern Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland tonight. For more
information on impacts in Canada, see the Canadian Hurricane Center
website at https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Melissa was located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 60.5 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 48 mph
(78 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue into
Saturday, followed by a gradual slowdown and turn toward the
east-northeast later this weekend. On the forecast track, the center
of Melissa is expected to pass to the southeast of the Avalon
Peninsula of Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next
few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Gusty winds are possible over the southern Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland tonight.

RAINFALL: A brief period of heavy rain is possible over the southern
Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Bermuda, the
Northeastern United States coast and portions of Atlantic Canada
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 311441
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1500 UTC FRI OCT 31 2025

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 60.5W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 42 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 140SE 90SW 30NW.
34 KT.......180NE 240SE 200SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 360SE 480SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 60.5W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 62.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 43.5N 55.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 70SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 140SE 100SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 300SE 290SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 49.4N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 80NE 130SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 390SE 290SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 53.2N 41.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 110SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 390SE 290SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 55.0N 35.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 70SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 390SE 300SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 56.2N 29.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 300SE 240SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 57.5N 24.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 210SE 210SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 60.5N 16.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N 60.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 310910 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 40...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM AST Fri Oct 31 2025

Corrected time of next advisory issuance

...MELISSA MOVING QUICKLY AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 64.0W
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 41 MPH...67 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has discontinued the Hurricane
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.

After Melissa becomes post-tropical, a brief period of heavy rain
and gusty winds is possible over the southern Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland tonight. For more information on impacts in Canada, see
the Canadian Hurricane Center website at
https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 35.9 North, longitude 64.0 West. Melissa is
moving toward the northeast near 41 mph (67 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue into Saturday, followed by a gradual
slowdown and turn toward the east-northeast later this weekend. On
the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to pass to the
south of the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland as a post-tropical
cyclone tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is expected to become a strong post-tropical cyclone
later today, with gradual weakening forecast over the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265
miles (425 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Gusty winds over Bermuda will gradually subside this morning.
Gusty winds are possible over the southern Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland tonight.

RAINFALL: A brief period of heavy rain is possible over the southern
Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland tonight.

STORM SURGE: Water levels should continue to subside this morning
for Bermuda.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and
Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells are expected to
reach the coast of the Northeastern United States and Atlantic
Canada today and persist into the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 310909 CCA
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0900 UTC FRI OCT 31 2025

CORRECTED TIME OF NEXT ADVISORY ISSUANCE

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 64.0W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 36 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 140SE 80SW 30NW.
34 KT.......170NE 230SE 180SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 360SE 450SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 64.0W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 65.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 40.4N 58.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 140SE 80SW 30NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 46.4N 51.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 30NW.
34 KT...210NE 290SE 240SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 51.3N 45.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 100SE 80SW 20NW.
34 KT...210NE 320SE 260SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 54.1N 39.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...170NE 330SE 260SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 55.6N 32.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 300SE 240SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 56.8N 26.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 270SE 210SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 60.0N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.9N 64.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 310847
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM AST Fri Oct 31 2025

Recent satellite images show Melissa is quickly losing tropical
characteristics. The estimated low-level center is displaced well to
the west of the weakening convection associated with the system.
Decreasing satellite intensity estimates and the latest global model
wind fields support lowering the intensity to 80 kt this morning.
Earlier ASCAT data showed an expanding wind field in the southern
semicircle of Melissa, with 50-kt winds that extended up to 140 n mi
from the center in the southeastern quadrant. Large swells from
Melissa are spreading over much of the western Atlantic, resulting
in hazardous marine conditions in this region.

Melissa remains in a highly-sheared environment and will move over
rapidly cooling SSTs while completing extratropical transition
today. Based on current satellite trends and simulated satellite
imagery from the GFS and ECMWF, the updated NHC forecast now shows
Melissa becoming a hurricane-force extratropical cyclone in 12 h,
though this could occur as soon as later this morning. Gradual
weakening is forecast over the next few days, but Melissa will
remain a large and powerful extratropical cyclone as it moves over
the North Atlantic through early next week.

Melissa is racing northeastward (040/36 kt) away from Bermuda and is
expected to continue this general motion for the next day or two
within the flow ahead of an upper-level trough. The tightly
clustered track guidance agrees that the center of post-tropical
Melissa will pass near, but to the south of, the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland late tonight, bringing the potential for some gusty
winds and heavy rain. Later this weekend, Melissa is forecast to
turn east-northeastward while interacting with a higher-latitude,
upper-level low over the North Atlantic. The latest NHC track
prediction remains very similar to the previous forecast, generally
following a blend of the HCCA and GDMI aids.

Key Messages:

1. Bermuda: Gusty winds over Bermuda are expected to gradually
subside this morning.

2. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid
areas of downed power lines and flooding. The flooding across Cuba,
Jamaica, and Hispaniola could persist for another day or two. Ensure
generators are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20
feet away from dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide
poisoning. During clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and
power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 35.9N 64.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 40.4N 58.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 01/0600Z 46.4N 51.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 01/1800Z 51.3N 45.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 02/0600Z 54.1N 39.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 02/1800Z 55.6N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 03/0600Z 56.8N 26.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/0600Z 60.0N 17.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 310846
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM AST Fri Oct 31 2025

...MELISSA MOVING QUICKLY AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 64.0W
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 41 MPH...67 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has discontinued the Hurricane
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.

After Melissa becomes post-tropical, a brief period of heavy rain
and gusty winds is possible over the southern Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland tonight. For more information on impacts in Canada, see
the Canadian Hurricane Center website at
https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 35.9 North, longitude 64.0 West. Melissa is
moving toward the northeast near 41 mph (67 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue into Saturday, followed by a gradual
slowdown and turn toward the east-northeast later this weekend. On
the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to pass to the
south of the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland as a post-tropical
cyclone tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is expected to become a strong post-tropical cyclone
later today, with gradual weakening forecast over the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265
miles (425 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Gusty winds over Bermuda will gradually subside this morning.
Gusty winds are possible over the southern Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland tonight.

RAINFALL: A brief period of heavy rain is possible over the southern
Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland tonight.

STORM SURGE: Water levels should continue to subside this morning
for Bermuda.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and
Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells are expected to
reach the coast of the Northeastern United States and Atlantic
Canada today and persist into the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 310845
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0900 UTC FRI OCT 31 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 64.0W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 36 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 140SE 80SW 30NW.
34 KT.......170NE 230SE 180SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 360SE 450SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 64.0W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 65.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 40.4N 58.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 140SE 80SW 30NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 46.4N 51.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 30NW.
34 KT...210NE 290SE 240SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 51.3N 45.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 100SE 80SW 20NW.
34 KT...210NE 320SE 260SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 54.1N 39.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...170NE 330SE 260SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 55.6N 32.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 300SE 240SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 56.8N 26.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 270SE 210SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 60.0N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.9N 64.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 31/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 310543
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 39A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 AM AST Fri Oct 31 2025

...HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS REPORTED ON BERMUDA AS MELISSA MAKES
ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 65.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

After Melissa becomes post-tropical, a brief period of heavy rain
and gusty winds is possible over the southern Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland tonight. For more information on impacts in Canada, see
the Canadian Hurricane Center website at
https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 65.5 West. Melissa is
moving toward the northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h). An even faster
northeastward motion is expected into Saturday. A gradual turn
toward the east-northeast is forecast on Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center of Melissa is expected to move away from Bermuda
this morning and pass south of the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland
as a post-tropical cyclone tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Melissa is expected to become a post-tropical low by tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km). The L.F. Wade International Airport on Bermuda
recently reported sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust of
61 mph (98 km/h). An elevated station at the National Museum of
Bermuda recently reported a wind gust of 76 mph (122 km/h), with a
peak gust of 98 mph (158 km/h) during the past couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions, primarily in gusts, are occurring on
Bermuda. Gusty winds are possible over the southern Avalon
Peninsula of Newfoundland tonight.

RAINFALL: For Bermuda, outer bands of Melissa may bring 1 to 2
inches of rain through early this morning.

A brief period of heavy rain is possible over the southern Avalon
Peninsula of Newfoundland tonight.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas
of onshore winds for Bermuda.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and
Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells are expected to
reach the coast of the Northeastern United States and Atlantic
Canada today and persist into the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 310400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 31.10.2025

HURRICANE MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.4N 68.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.10.2025 0 31.4N 68.4W 968 74
1200UTC 31.10.2025 12 37.3N 62.1W 969 68
0000UTC 01.11.2025 24 43.4N 55.5W 964 58
1200UTC 01.11.2025 36 49.3N 47.3W 961 49
0000UTC 02.11.2025 48 52.9N 41.9W 950 51
1200UTC 02.11.2025 60 54.2N 34.7W 953 45
0000UTC 03.11.2025 72 55.0N 27.2W 956 48
1200UTC 03.11.2025 84 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 29.9N 71.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.11.2025 72 30.7N 70.8W 1013 38
1200UTC 03.11.2025 84 32.0N 71.4W 1013 37
0000UTC 04.11.2025 96 37.4N 68.7W 1001 48
1200UTC 04.11.2025 108 42.5N 61.5W 974 62
0000UTC 05.11.2025 120 45.9N 55.3W 948 68
1200UTC 05.11.2025 132 48.6N 51.0W 944 50
0000UTC 06.11.2025 144 49.1N 47.5W 949 47
1200UTC 06.11.2025 156 49.7N 44.1W 958 45
0000UTC 07.11.2025 168 49.4N 38.3W 963 47


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 310400


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 310400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 31.10.2025

HURRICANE MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.4N 68.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.10.2025 31.4N 68.4W STRONG
12UTC 31.10.2025 37.3N 62.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.11.2025 43.4N 55.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.11.2025 49.3N 47.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.11.2025 52.9N 41.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.11.2025 54.2N 34.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.11.2025 55.0N 27.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.11.2025 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 29.9N 71.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.11.2025 30.7N 70.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.11.2025 32.0N 71.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.11.2025 37.4N 68.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.11.2025 42.5N 61.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.11.2025 45.9N 55.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 05.11.2025 48.6N 51.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.11.2025 49.1N 47.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.11.2025 49.7N 44.1W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.11.2025 49.4N 38.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 310400


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 310233
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 30 2025

Satellite imagery suggests that Melissa is starting the
extratropical transition process, with cold air clouds beginning to
enter the southwestern side of the circulation and the remaining
convection now confined to the northeastern quadrant. Reports from
the last Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission into the storm
included a central pressure near 971 mb and 700-mb flight-level
winds of 111 kt well to the southeast of the center. Since there is
no convection in this area to mix these winds to the surface, it is
difficult to tell just how strong the surface winds may be. However,
based on the observed structural decay and the trends in satellite
intensity estimates, the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly
generous 85 kt.

Melissa continues to accelerate to the northeast with the initial
motion now 040/33 kt. An even faster motion toward the northeast is
expected during the next 48 h as the cyclone becomes embedded in
strong southwesterly flow associated with a mid-latitude cyclone to
the northwest. This track should bring the center to the northwest
of Bermuda during the next 6 h or so, and just south of the Avalon
Peninsula of Newfoundland between 24-36 h. After 48 h, an
east-northeastward motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected as Melissa becomes part of an elongated area of low
pressure over the northeastern Atlantic. The new forecast track is
faster than the previous one, but has little difference in direction
of motion from the previous track through 96 h. An eastward
adjustment was made at 120 h. Overall, the new forecast track is
close to the consensus models in a tightly-packed guidance suite.

Melissa is now moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and
this should aid the ongoing extratropical transition. The cyclone
is expected to become post-tropical by 24 h, then continue as a
gradually weakening extratropical low as it crosses the north
Atlantic. The forecast intensities during the extratropical stage
are based on a blend of the GFS and ECMWF forecast intensities.

Key Messages:

1. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda tonight,
with tropical storm conditions now occurring on the island.

2. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials as you may
need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines
and flooding. Any flooding across the Bahamas is expected to subside
today. Flooding across Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola could persist
for another few days. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and
placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to
avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when
using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat
exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 32.8N 67.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 37.3N 62.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 43.5N 55.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 01/1200Z 49.2N 48.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 02/0000Z 52.9N 42.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 02/1200Z 54.6N 36.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 03/0000Z 55.6N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/0000Z 59.5N 17.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/0000Z 62.6N 11.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 310233
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 30 2025

...MELISSA CONTINUES LOSING ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NOW OCCURRING ON BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 67.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

After Melissa becomes post-tropical, a brief period of heavy rain
and gusty winds is possible over the southern Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland Friday night. For more information on impacts in
Canada, see the Canadian Hurricane Center website at
https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 67.5 West. Melissa is
moving toward the northeast near 38 mph (61 km/h). An even faster
motion toward the northeast is expected into Saturday. A gradual
turn toward the east-northeast is expected on Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to pass to the
northwest of Bermuda tonight and pass south of the Avalon Peninsula
of Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone on Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected later tonight, and Melissa is
expected to become a post-tropical low by Friday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km). An elevated station at the National Museum of
Bermuda recently reported sustained winds of 58 mph (94 km/h)
and a wind gust of 74 mph (119 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading over Bermuda at this
time, with hurricane conditions expected there tonight. Gusty winds
are possible over the southern Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland
Friday night.

RAINFALL: For Bermuda, outer bands of Melissa may bring 1 to 2
inches of rain through tonight.

A brief period of heavy rain is possible over the southern Avalon
Peninsula of Newfoundland Friday night.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas
of onshore winds for Bermuda.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands and
Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells generated by Melissa
are also likely to reach the coast of the Northeastern United States
and Atlantic Canada Friday and persist into the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 310232
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0300 UTC FRI OCT 31 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 67.5W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 33 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 110SE 80SW 50NW.
34 KT.......170NE 220SE 140SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 330SE 420SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 67.5W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 68.8W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 37.3N 62.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 30NW.
34 KT...190NE 250SE 190SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 43.5N 55.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...230NE 290SE 260SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 49.2N 48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...220NE 350SE 270SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 52.9N 42.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 100SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 350SE 270SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 54.6N 36.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...190NE 340SE 260SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 55.6N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 340SE 260SW 220NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 59.5N 17.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 250SE 230SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 62.6N 11.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.8N 67.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 31/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 302351
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 PM AST Thu Oct 30 2025

...MELISSA BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD...
...CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 68.9W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...51 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations should be rushed to
completion in Bermuda before tropical-storm-force winds reach the
island shortly after sunset today.

After Melissa becomes post-tropical, a brief period of heavy rain
and gusty winds is possible over the southern Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland Friday night. For more information on impacts in
Canada, see the Canadian Hurricane Center website at
https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 68.9 West. Melissa is
moving rapidly toward the northeast near 32 mph (51 km/h). An even
faster motion toward the northeast is expected into Saturday. A
gradual turn toward the east-northeast is expected on Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to pass to the
northwest of Bermuda tonight and pass south of the Avalon Peninsula
of Newfoundland Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is likely through evening.
However, Melissa is expected to weaken later tonight and Friday
and become a post-tropical low by Friday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km). Automated stations on Bermuda have been reporting
wind gusts near 40 mph (65 km/h) during the past hour.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will begin on Bermuda shortly, with
hurricane conditions expected there tonight. Gusty winds are
possible over the southern Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland Friday
night.

RAINFALL: For Bermuda, outer bands of Melissa may bring 1 to 2
inches of rain through tonight.

A brief period of heavy rain is possible over the southern Avalon
Peninsula of Newfoundland Friday night.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas
of onshore winds for Bermuda.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands and
Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells generated by Melissa
are also likely to reach the coast of the Northeastern United States
and Atlantic Canada Friday and persist into the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 302042
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM AST Thu Oct 30 2025

A recent AMSR2 microwave pass over Melissa indicates that the
center is tilted toward the northeast with height. The 89 GHz
(mid-upper level) image shows a center at least 30 n mi northeast of
where the 37 GHz (low-level) image has the center. This indicates
that strong west-southwesterly shear has begun. Dropsonde and
flight-level wind data from a NOAA reconnaissance flight show that
the surface winds are much weaker than the winds aloft, and that the
standard 90 percent reduction factor should not be used. Winds on
the east side of Melissa are quite strong between 1,500 ft and
10,000 ft, but drop off significantly near the surface. The
strongest flight-level wind was 113 kt. ASCAT showed vectors up to
70 kt around 15Z, which is consistent with lower-level
layer-averaged data from the dropsondes. The latest subjective
Dvorak estimates are T5.0/90 kt from both TAFB and SAB. The initial
intensity will be held at 90 kt, which is equivalent to 80 percent
of the maximum flight-level wind from the recent flight, but this
may be a bit generous.

Melissa is accelerating northeastward, or 35 degrees at 27 kt.
Melissa is likely to speed up to a forward speed of 35 kt or more
over the next 12 hours, and the fast motion should continue into
Saturday as Melissa moves within the flow between a mid-level trough
over the eastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge over the central
Atlantic. The guidance is in excellent agreement for the first 48
of the forecast, with the center expected to pass northwest of
Bermuda tonight, where a hurricane warning is in effect. After
Melissa becomes extratropical in about 30 hours, the center should
pass very near the southeastern tip of the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland, where some impacts from wind, rain and surf are
possible. Little to no change has been made to the official track
forecast through 48 hours, which lies near the various consensus
aids.

Melissa is now moving into progressively stronger west-southwesterly
wind shear and will reach sea-surface temperatures below 26C this
evening. Therefore, Melissa should begin a weakening trend by early
Friday. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggests that
Melissa should become post-tropical around Friday evening, prior to
making its closest approach to Newfoundland. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies within the upper
portion of the intensity guidance suite. The NHC intensity and
radii forecasts after Melissa becomes post-tropical are largely
based on the global model solutions.


Key Messages:

1. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning early this evening.
Preparations should have been completed.

2. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials as you may
need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines
and flooding. Any flooding across the Bahamas is expected to subside
today. Flooding across Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola could persist
for another few days. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and
placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to
avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when
using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat
exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 30.2N 69.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 34.4N 65.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 40.4N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 46.3N 52.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 01/1800Z 51.3N 45.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 02/0600Z 53.8N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 02/1800Z 55.1N 33.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/1800Z 57.6N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/1800Z 61.7N 15.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 302038
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM AST Thu Oct 30 2025

...MELISSA ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD...
...CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 69.7W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations should be rushed to
completion in Bermuda before tropical-storm-force winds reach the
island shortly after sunset today.

After Melissa becomes post-tropical, a brief period of heavy rain
and gusty winds is possible over the southern Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland Friday night. For more information on impacts in
Canada, see the Canadian Hurricane Center website at
https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 69.7 West. Melissa is
moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h). An even faster
motion toward the northeast is expected into Saturday. A gradual
turn toward the east-northeast is expected on Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to pass to the
northwest of Bermuda this evening and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is likely through evening, but a
weakening trend is expected to begin by early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will begin on Bermuda by early this
evening, with hurricane conditions expected there tonight. Gusty
winds are possible over the southern Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland Friday night.

RAINFALL: For Bermuda, outer bands of Melissa may bring 1 to 2
inches of rain through tonight.

A brief period of heavy rain is possible over the southern Avalon
Peninsula of Newfoundland Friday night.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas
of onshore winds for Bermuda.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands and
Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells generated by Melissa
are also likely to reach the coast of the Northeastern United States
and Atlantic Canada Friday and persist into the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 302037
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
2100 UTC THU OCT 30 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 69.7W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 27 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 110SE 80SW 50NW.
34 KT.......170NE 220SE 140SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 300SE 390SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 69.7W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 70.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 34.4N 65.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 50NW.
34 KT...190NE 250SE 190SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 40.4N 59.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...230NE 290SE 260SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 46.3N 52.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 50SE 35SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...220NE 350SE 290SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 51.3N 45.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 120SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 360SE 270SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 53.8N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...190NE 340SE 260SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 55.1N 33.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 340SE 260SW 220NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 57.6N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 250SE 230SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 61.7N 15.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 69.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 31/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 301748
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025

...CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 70.9W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations should be rushed to
completion in Bermuda before tropical-storm-force winds reach the
island later today.

After Melissa becomes post-tropical, a brief period of heavy rain
and gusty winds is possible over the southern Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland Friday night. For more information on impacts in
Canada, see the Canadian Hurricane Center website at
https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 70.9 West. Melissa is
moving toward the northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to pass to the
northwest of Bermuda later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, and a weakening
trend is likely to begin on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will begin on Bermuda late this
afternoon or early this evening, with hurricane conditions expected
there tonight. Gusty winds are possible over the southern Avalon
Peninsula of Newfoundland Friday night.

RAINFALL: An additional 1 to 2 inches is possible today over
portions of Hispaniola.

For Bermuda, outer bands of Melissa may bring an inch of rain
through tonight.

A brief period of heavy rain is possible over the southern Avalon
Peninsula of Newfoundland Friday night.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas
of onshore winds for Bermuda.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands
during the next couple of days, and will spread toward Bermuda later
today. Swells generated by Melissa are also likely to reach the
coast of the Northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada Friday
and persist into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 301500
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1500 UTC THU OCT 30 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 71.7W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 65SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 90SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 190SE 110SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 210SE 240SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 71.7W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 72.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 31.6N 68.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 70SE 35SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 37.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 70SE 35SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 40NW.
34 KT...200NE 230SE 210SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 43.8N 55.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 70SE 35SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT...230NE 300SE 280SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 49.5N 48.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT...220NE 350SE 270SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 53.3N 43.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 340SE 250SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 54.7N 37.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 300SE 250SW 220NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 56.6N 26.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 270SE 200SW 220NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 61.0N 19.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 71.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 301454
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance recently investigated Melissa and
found winds in the southeast quadrant that supported a 90-kt
intensity. The central pressure is about 965 mb, based on dropsonde
data. The wind radii have changed only slightly during the past 12
hours. The satellite presentation remains fairly impressive, with
an eye feature emerging on GOES 19 imagery over the past couple of
hours. Some slight additional strengthening is possible for another
few hours while Melissa remains over marginally warm sea-surface
temperatures, but the water temperatures will rapidly decrease
tonight while wind shear rapidly increases. As a result, Melissa is
expected to quickly lose tropical characteristics once it passes
Bermuda, and it is forecast to become a strong post-tropical cyclone
over the North Atlantic by Friday night. The latest NHC intensity
forecast remains towards the higher end of the guidance envelope,
and more closely follows the global models during the extratropical
phase.

Melissa is accelerating toward the north-northeast, now moving 30
degrees at 21 kt. A faster motion is expected during the next
couple of days as Melissa moves within the flow between a
mid-level trough over the eastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge
over the central Atlantic. The guidance is in excellent agreement
through the next 48 hours, until after the system makes its closest
approach to Atlantic Canada. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect
for Bermuda, and Melissa is likely to pass to the west and
northwest of the island tonight. Melissa should then pass near the
southeastern tip of Newfoundland as a strong extratropical cyclone
on Friday night before turning more towards the east-northeast, and
moving across the North Atlantic this weekend. No significant
changes were made to the NHC track forecast through 48 hours, but
the track was shifted a bit to the northeast of the previous
forecast from day 3 onward.

Key Messages:

1. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning late this afternoon.
Preparations should be rushed to completion.

2. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials as you may
need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines
and flooding. Any flooding across the Bahamas is expected to subside
today. Flooding across Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola could persist
for another few days. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and
placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to
avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when
using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat
exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 27.8N 71.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 31.6N 68.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 37.5N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 43.8N 55.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 01/1200Z 49.5N 48.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 02/0000Z 53.3N 43.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 02/1200Z 54.7N 37.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/1200Z 56.6N 26.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/1200Z 61.0N 19.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 301451
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025

...MELISSA WILL BE APPROACHING BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 71.7W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations should be rushed to
completion in Bermuda before tropical-storm-force winds reach the
island later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 71.7 West. Melissa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and the
hurricane is expected to continue accelerating northeastward during
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of
Melissa is expected to pass to the northwest of Bermuda later today
and tonight.

Data from Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, and a
weakening trend is likely to begin on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220
miles (350 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will begin on Bermuda late this
afternoon, with hurricane conditions expected there tonight.

RAINFALL: An additional 1 to 2 inches is possible today over
portions of Hispaniola.

For Bermuda, outer bands of Melissa may bring an inch of rain
through tonight.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas
of onshore winds for Bermuda.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands
during the next couple of days, and will spread toward Bermuda later
today. Swells generated by Melissa are also likely to reach the
coast of the Northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada Friday
and persist into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 301157
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025

...MELISSA WILL BE APPROACHING BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 72.7W
ABOUT 605 MI...980 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations should be rushed to
completion in Bermuda before tropical-storm-force winds reach the
island later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude
26.8 North, longitude 72.7 West. Melissa is moving toward the
north-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and the hurricane is expected
to continue accelerating northeastward during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to
pass to the northwest of Bermuda later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, and a
weakening trend is likely to begin on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunters is
965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will begin on Bermuda later today,
with hurricane conditions expected there tonight.

RAINFALL: Over the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos,
an additional inch of rain is possible, with storm total maxima up
to 10 inches in the southeast Bahamas and storm total maxima up to
4 inches across the Turks and Caicos. Any residual flooding should
be waning.

Over portions of Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches
is possible this morning, with storm total accumulations up to 40
inches possible in southern Hispaniola.

Across Bermuda, outer bands east of Melissa’s track may bring up t
an inch (25 mm) of rain today and tonight.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Water levels should continue to subside through the
morning for the southeastern Bahamas.

Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas of onshore
winds for Bermuda.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands
during the next couple of days, and will spread toward Bermuda later
today, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 300256
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0300 UTC THU OCT 30 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 74.3W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 50SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 90SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 150SE 120SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 74.3W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 74.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 26.9N 72.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 50SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 31.7N 68.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 35SW 25NW.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 70SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 160SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 37.6N 62.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 75SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 40NW.
34 KT...190NE 220SE 210SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 44.0N 55.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 40NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 220SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 50.0N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 120SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 250SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 53.0N 43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 250SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 56.5N 29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 270SE 270SW 270NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 57.5N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 180SE 180SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 74.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 300855
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0900 UTC THU OCT 30 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 73.4W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 50SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......170NE 170SE 100SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 73.4W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 73.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 29.0N 70.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 34.4N 65.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 60SE 35SW 25NW.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 170SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 40.6N 59.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 40NW.
34 KT...200NE 230SE 220SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 47.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 50SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 20NW.
34 KT...210NE 250SE 230SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 51.6N 45.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 240SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 53.9N 40.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 250SE 250SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 55.5N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 210SE 210SW 150NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 58.5N 21.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 180SE 150SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 73.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 300852
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Melissa appears slightly better organized this morning. Overnight
GMI passive microwave images showed a closed mid-level eyewall, and
there have been hints of a ragged eye feature in recent conventional
satellite images with deep convection surrounding the center. Based
on these developments, the initial intensity is raised to 90 kt for
this advisory, which is supported by a 5.0/90 kt Dvorak
classification from SAB. A comparison of the 89 and 37 GHz GMI
images indicates the vortex is tilted toward the northeast with
height, likely the result of southwesterly shear over the hurricane.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the hurricane this morning.

Melissa is moving quickly northeastward (030/18 kt) away from the
Bahamas. An even faster northeastward motion is expected during the
next couple of days as Melissa moves within the flow between a
mid-level trough over the southeastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge
over the central Atlantic. The tightly clustered track guidance
shows the center of Melissa passing to the northwest of Bermuda
tonight, and a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the island.
Then, Melissa should pass near the southeastern tip of Newfoundland
as a strong extratropical cyclone on Friday night before moving
across the North Atlantic this weekend. No notable changes were
made to the NHC track forecast with this update.

Slight additional strengthening is possible today while Melissa
remains over warm waters in a diffluent upper-level environment.
However, the shear is forecast to become prohibitively strong later
tonight and Friday, and Melissa will reach much cooler waters during
the next 24-48 h. As a result, Melissa is expected to quickly lose
tropical characteristics once it passes Bermuda, and it is forecast
to become a strong post-tropical cyclone over the North Atlantic by
Friday night or early Saturday. The latest NHC intensity forecast
remains on the high end of the guidance envelope, and more closely
follows the global models during the extratropical phase later in
the forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Preparations
should be rushed to completion.

2. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials as you may
need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines
and flooding. Any flooding across the Bahamas is expected to subside
today. Flooding across Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola could persist
for another few days. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and
placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to
avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when
using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat
exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 25.8N 73.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 29.0N 70.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 34.4N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 40.6N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 47.0N 52.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 01/1800Z 51.6N 45.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 02/0600Z 53.9N 40.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/0600Z 55.5N 29.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/0600Z 58.5N 21.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 300851
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA AS MELISSA IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE ISLAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS TO INVESTIGATE MELISSA THIS
MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 73.4W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane Warning
for the central and southeastern Bahamas. The Tropical Storm Warning
has been discontinued for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations should be rushed to
completion in Bermuda before tropical-storm-force winds reach the
island later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 73.4 West. Melissa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and the
hurricane is expected to continue accelerating northeastward during
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of
Melissa is expected to pass to the northwest of Bermuda later today
and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible today before
weakening likely begins on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will begin on Bermuda later today,
with hurricane conditions expected there tonight.

RAINFALL: Over the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos,
an additional inch of rain is possible, with storm total maxima up
to 10 inches in the southeast Bahamas and storm total maxima up to
4 inches across the Turks and Caicos. Any residual flooding should
be waning.

Over portions of Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches
is possible this morning, with storm total accumulations up to 40
inches possible in southern Hispaniola.

Across Bermuda, outer bands east of Melissa’s track may bring up to
an inch (25 mm) of rain today and tonight.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Water levels should continue to subside through the
morning for the southeastern Bahamas.

Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas of onshore
winds for Bermuda.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands
during the next couple of days, and will spread toward Bermuda later
today, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 300543
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025

...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 73.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Residents in the Bahamas should
remain sheltered. In Bermuda, preparations should be rushed to
completion before tropical-storm-force winds reach the island later
today.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 73.9 West. Melissa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and the
hurricane is expected to continue accelerating northeastward during
the next few days. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is
expected to move away from the southeastern and central Bahamas this
morning, then pass near or to the west of Bermuda later today and
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Further strengthening is possible today before weakening
likely begins on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions, mainly in gusts, will continue over the
southeastern and central Bahamas for the next few hours. Tropical
storm conditions, mainly in gusts, will continue in the Turks and
Caicos Islands for the next few hours.

On Bermuda, tropical storm conditions will begin later today and
hurricane conditions are expected tonight.

RAINFALL: Over the Southeastern Bahamas, storm total rainfall of 5
to 10 inches is expected through this morning, which will result
in areas of flash flooding. For the Turks and Caicos, rainfall
totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected.

Over southern Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is
expected through early this morning, with storm total local maxima
of 40 inches possible.

Across Bermuda, outer bands east of Melissas track may bring up to
an inch (25 mm) of rain today and tonight.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge of 4 to 7 ft above normally dry ground is
possible in the southeastern Bahamas overnight, and minor coastal
flooding is possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands overnight.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands
for the next couple of days, and will spread toward Bermuda later
today, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 300254
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

...DAMAGING WINDS, FLOODING RAINS, AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
ONGOING IN THE BAHAMAS DUE TO MELISSA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 74.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Residents in the Bahamas should
remain sheltered. In Bermuda, preparations should be underway and be
completed before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 74.3 West. Melissa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h). An
accelerating northeastward motion is expected during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to
continue moving near the southeastern or central Bahamas overnight,
and is forecast to pass near or to the west of Bermuda late Thursday
and Thursday night.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph
(155 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is possible
tomorrow before weakening likely begins on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the warning area in
the southeastern and central Bahamas and should continue overnight.
Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and should continue overnight.

Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda late Thursday and
Thursday night with tropical storm conditions expected earlier on
Thursday.

RAINFALL: Over the Southeastern Bahamas, storm total rainfall of 5
to 10 inches is expected through Thursday morning, which will result
in areas of flash flooding. For the Turks and Caicos, rainfall
totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected.

Over southern Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is
expected through tonight, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches
possible.

Across Bermuda, outer bands east of Melissa’s track may bring up to
an inch or 25 mm of rain Thursday and Thursday night.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge of 4 to 7 ft above normally dry ground is
possible in the southeastern Bahamas overnight, and minor coastal
flooding is possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands overnight.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
for the next few days, and will spread toward Bermuda later this
week, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 292358
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

...MELISSA PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, FLOODING RAINS, AND A
DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IN THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 74.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Residents in the Bahamas should
remain sheltered. In Bermuda, preparations should be underway and be
completed before anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 74.8 West. Melissa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). An
accelerating northeastward motion is expected during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to
continue to move across the southeastern or central Bahamas this
evening, and is forecast to pass near or to the west of Bermuda
late Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast tonight into tomorrow with
weakening beginning thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km). A private weather station at Pitts Town on Crooked Island
recently reported sustained winds of 76 mph (122 km/h) and a wind
gust of 85 mph (137 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches)
based on dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the warning area in
the southeastern and central Bahamas and should continue through
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in the Turks and
Caicos Islands and should continue through tonight.

Hurricane conditions are now expected on Bermuda late Thursday and
Thursday night with Tropical storm conditions expected earlier on
Thursday.

RAINFALL: Over the Southeast Bahamas, storm total rainfall of 5 to
10 inches are expected through Thursday morning, which will result
in areas of flash flooding. For the Turks and Caicos rainfall totals
of 1 to 3 inches are expected. Heavy rain may begin to affect
Bermuda on Thursday or Thursday night.

Over southern Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches are
through this evening, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches
possible.

For eastern Cuba, the rainfall has subsided. However, additional
scattered showers are expected through this evening, with additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches. With storm total rainfall of 10
to 20 inches, possibly up to 25 inches over mountainous terrain, the
ongoing life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding
and landslides will likely persist into the evening.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge of 4 to 7 ft above normally dry ground is
possible in the southeastern Bahamas tonight, and minor coastal
flooding is possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands for the
remainder of the day, will affect the Bahamas and the Turks and
Caicos Islands for the next few days, and will spread toward Bermuda
later this week, causing life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 292047
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Melissa showing some some signs of convective recovery after
weakening a little more from the land interaction with Cuba. After
looking quite ragged after emerging off Cuba, convection is
redeveloping on its upshear flank, and showing some signs of
wrapping around the center again. Aircraft fixes from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunter mission also show that the hurricane is beginning
to accelerate to the northeast. Peak 700 mb flight level winds were
87 kt both to the east and northeast of the center, and the minimum
central pressure was unchanged from this morning, at around 974 mb.
The mission also indicated a much larger eyewall with an eye
diameter of 40 n mi. Using a standard 0.9 reduction from the 700 mb
wind yields a maximum sustained wind of 80 kt this advisory, which
is also in between the TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates. Aircraft and scatterometer data were used to expand some
of the wind radii associated with Melissa this afternoon. Another
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for this
evening.

The hurricane continues to gradually accelerate this afternoon, with
the motion currently estimated at 035/14 kt. Not much has changed
with the track reasoning this afternoon, as Melissa is beginning to
be captured in the flow between an amplified trough swinging into
the southeastern United States and a mid-level ridge centered to the
east of the tropical cyclone. This motion will bring Melissa across
the southeastern and central Bahamas though the evening. The track
models continue to remain clustered on the center of Melissa passing
just northwest of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night, though
the enlarging wind radii will likely cause hurricane conditions to
be experienced near or on the island. The track guidance this cycle
remains in fairly good agreement, and only subtle changes to the
track forecast were made this cycle, sticking close to a blend of
the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind
ensemble mean (GDMI). It is also worth noting that the forecast
track does also take Melissa close to the southeastern tip of
Newfoundland, but as an post-tropical extratropical cyclone.

While Melissa has weakened substantially in the past 24 h due to
land interaction from the high terrain of Jamaica and Cuba, the
global and hurricane-regional models continue to suggest it has a
short-term window to re-intensify some while it remains over
sufficently warm 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures. While vertical
wind shear is starting to increase over the hurricane, it is in the
same direction as the current accelerating motion, and the current
satellite structure suggests that convection is not having any
issues wrapping around the circulation. In addition, the
accelerating forward motion might have the net effect of increasing
the maximum winds speeds on the southeastern flank of Melissa.
Finally, the hurricane finds itself positioned in the right entrance
region of a jet streak located over the northeastern United States,
which may aid in upper-level divergence over the system before the
shear becomes prohibitively strong. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast
does show some modest intensification over the next 24 h, and it is
worth nothing this forecast is a little lower than some of the
hurricane-regional models (HAFS-B/HWRF/HMON) that suggest it could
re-intensify into a major hurricane. Once the hurricane approaches
the north wall of the gulf stream in 48 h, extratropical transition
will likely be well underway, with most models suggesting it
completing this process between 48 to 60 h. The NHC intensity
forecast is a little on the high side of the overall guidance
envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions,
life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected across
portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas through this
evening. Remain sheltered until local officials deem it safe to
venture out. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rains, and significant
storm surge are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands through
this evening.

2. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions and heavy rainfall are expected in
Bermuda beginning late Thursday and continuing through Thursday
night.

3. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials as you may
need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines
and flooded areas. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and
placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to
avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when
using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat
exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 22.9N 74.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 25.1N 73.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 29.1N 70.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 34.4N 65.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 40.7N 58.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 46.6N 52.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 01/1800Z 52.0N 45.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1800Z 56.0N 32.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1800Z 57.0N 27.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 292044
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

...MELISSA STARTING TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
BAHAMAS...
...DAMAGING WINDS, FLOODING RAINS, AND A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE CONTINUING IN THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 74.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued all Hurricane and Tropical
Storm Warnings for their Cuban provinces.

The Tropical Storm Warning in effect for Haiti has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Residents in the Bahamas should
remain sheltered. In Bermuda, preparations should be underway and be
completed before anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 74.8 West. Melissa is
moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). An accelerating
northeastward motion is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move across the
southeastern or central Bahamas this evening, and is forecast to
pass near or to the west of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some restrengthening is possible tonight into tomorrow with
weakening beginning thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km). A private weather station at Pitts Town on Crooked Island
recently reported sustained winds of 69 mph (111 km/h) and a wind
gust of 82 mph (131 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). A
private weather station at Buckley's Settlement on Long Island
recently reported a pressure of 978.4 mb (28.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the warning area in
the southeastern and central Bahamas and should continue through
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in the Turks and
Caicos Islands and should continue through tonight.

Hurricane conditions are now expected on Bermuda late Thursday and
Thursday night with Tropical storm conditions expected earlier on
Thursday.

RAINFALL: Over the Southeast Bahamas, storm total rainfall of 5 to
10 inches are expected through Thursday morning, which will result
in areas of flash flooding. For the Turks and Caicos rainfall totals
of 1 to 3 inches are expected. Heavy rain may begin to affect
Bermuda on Thursday or Thursday night.

Over southern Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches are
through this evening, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches
possible.

For eastern Cuba, the rainfall has subsided. However, additional
scattered showers are expected through this evening, with additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches. With storm total rainfall of 10
to 20 inches, possibly up to 25 inches over mountainous terrain, the
ongoing life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding
and landslides will likely persist into the evening.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge of 4 to 7 ft above normally dry ground is
possible in the southeastern Bahamas today, and minor coastal
flooding is possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands today.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands for the
remainder of the day, will affect the Bahamas and the Turks and
Caicos Islands for the next few days, and will spread toward Bermuda
later this week, causing life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 292042
TCMAT3

ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
2100 UTC WED OCT 29 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 74.8W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 100SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 90SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 150SE 90SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 74.8W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 75.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 25.1N 73.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 50SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 85NE 100SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 29.1N 70.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 55SE 35SW 25NW.
50 KT... 90NE 105SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 130SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 34.4N 65.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 65SE 40SW 20NW.
50 KT... 95NE 120SE 80SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 200SE 170SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 40.7N 58.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT... 95NE 120SE 80SW 40NW.
34 KT...200NE 230SE 220SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 46.6N 52.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 260SE 230SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 52.0N 45.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT...190NE 270SE 210SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 56.0N 32.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 270SE 220SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 57.0N 27.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 180SE 170SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 74.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 291740
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

...DAMAGING WINDS, FLOODING RAINS, AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND FOR THE AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN CUBA...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 75.3W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo,
Holguin, and Las Tunas
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Residents in Cuba should remain
sheltered. In the Bahamas, residents should remain sheltered. In
Bermuda, preparations should be underway and be completed before
anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located by Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 22.1 North, longitude 75.3 West. Melissa is moving toward
the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). An accelerating northeastward
motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track,
the core of Melissa is expected to move across the southeastern or
central Bahamas this afternoon and evening, and pass near or to the
west of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today into tomorrow
with little change in strength thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from aircraft dropsonde data
is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the warning area in
Cuba but expected to begin subsiding this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Haiti today.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central
Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks
and Caicos Islands today.

Hurricane conditions are now expected on Bermuda late Thursday and
Thursday night with Tropical storm conditions expected earlier on
Thursday.

RAINFALL: For eastern Cuba, heavy rains will continue this morning,
tapering off this afternoon. Storm total rainfall of 10 to 20
inches with local amounts to 25 inches over mountainous terrain is
expected. This will cause life-threatening and potentially
catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches
are expected today, which will result in areas of flash flooding.
For the Turks and Caicos rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are
expected. Heavy rain may begin to affect Bermuda on Thursday or
Thursday night.

Rainfall has diminished across Jamaica. However, additional
scattered showers are possible with additional rainfall amounts of
2 to 4 inches. This will bring storm total amounts to 12 to 24
inches, with isolated areas of 30 inches possible over mountainous
terrain. Ongoing catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides
will continue today and into tonight.

Over southern Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 4 to 6 inches are
expected today, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge of 4 to 7 ft above normally dry ground is
possible in the southeastern Bahamas today, and minor coastal
flooding is possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands today.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in bays and inlets along the
north coast of eastern Cuba and minor coastal flooding is expected
along the coast of Haiti.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands during the
next day or so, and now affecting the Bahamas and the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and will spread toward Bermuda later this week,
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 291451
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1500 UTC WED OCT 29 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 75.6W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 100SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 70SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 75.6W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 75.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.4N 74.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 26.9N 71.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 45SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT... 85NE 95SE 55SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 31.6N 67.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 25NW.
50 KT... 95NE 110SE 70SW 55NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 140SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 37.2N 61.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 55SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 85SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 220SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 43.3N 55.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 50SE 35SW 0NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 80SW 50NW.
34 KT...190NE 260SE 240SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 49.0N 48.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT...190NE 270SE 210SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 55.0N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 290SE 240SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 58.8N 18.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 300SE 320SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 75.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 29/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 291459 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 33...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Corrected surge totals for the Bahamas

...MELISSA NOW OFFSHORE OF EAST CUBA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...
...DAMAGING WINDS, FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE FOR CUBA, BAHAMAS, AND A
DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 75.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has issued a Hurricane
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo,
Holguin, and Las Tunas
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Residents in Cuba should remain
sheltered. In the Bahamas, preparations to protect life and property
should be completed and residents should remain sheltered. In
Bermuda preparations should be underway and be completed before
anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 21.4 North,
longitude 75.6 West. Melissa is moving toward the northeast near 14
mph (22 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected during the
next few days. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is
expected to move further offshore of Eastern Cuba this morning, move
across the southeastern or central Bahamas today, and pass near or
to the west of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today into tomorrow
with little change in strength thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure measured by aircraft
dropsonde data is 974 mb (28.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the warning area in
Cuba but expected to begin subsiding this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Haiti today.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central
Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks
and Caicos Islands today.

Hurricane conditions are now expected on Bermuda late Thursday and
Thursday night with Tropical storm conditions expected earlier on
Thursday.

RAINFALL: For eastern Cuba, heavy rains will continue this morning,
tapering off this afternoon. Storm total rainfall of 10 to 20
inches with local amounts to 25 inches over mountainous terrain is
expected. This will cause life-threatening and potentially
catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches
are expected today, which will result in areas of flash flooding.
For the Turks and Caicos rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are
expected. Heavy rain may begin to affect Bermuda on Thursday or
Thursday night.

Rainfall has diminished across Jamaica. However, additional
scattered showers are possible with additional rainfall amounts of
2 to 4 inches. This will bring storm total amounts to 12 to 24
inches, with isolated areas of 30 inches possible over mountainous
terrain. Ongoing catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides
will continue today and into tonight.

Over southern Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 4 to 6 inches are
expected today, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge of 4 to 7 ft above normally dry ground is
possible in the southeastern Bahamas today, and minor coastal
flooding is possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands today.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in bays and inlets along the
north coast of eastern Cuba and minor coastal flooding is expected
along the coast of Haiti.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands during the
next day or so, and now affecting the Bahamas and the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and will spread toward Bermuda later this week,
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 291458
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Melissa is moving back offshore, now in the Southwestern Atlantic
Ocean. The NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft flew around Cuba and more
recently was able to make a fix of Melissa just offshore. This
matches the latest view from the GOES-19 mesoscale sector and radar
out of Camaguey, Cuba. However, the smaller core that Melissa had
stubbornly maintained over the past few days has been destroyed by
the higher terrain of Cuba, and a larger core structure is
developing. This has led to a significant expansion of the 50-kt
wind radii on the eastern side of the hurricane. Land interaction
also appears to have lead to additional weakening of the the maximum
sustained winds that are now estimated to be around 85 kt, with the
pressure up to 974 mb based on the first NOAA-P3 aircraft fix. This
may still be a little generous given the aircraft wind data thus
far. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission will also be
sampling Melissa later today.

The hurricane is continuing to slowly accelerate, now estimated to
be moving to the northeast at 030/12 kt. Melissa is expected to
continue accelerating northeastward during the next several days as
the hurricane is picked up by a very large an amplified upper-level
trough currently digging into the southeastern United States. This
motion will bring the core of the hurricane over portions of the
southeastern and central Bahamas over the next several hours. After
today, the track models remain tightly clustered on the center of
Melissa passing just to the northwest of Bermuda late Thursday and
Thursday night. The center of the hurricane is a little bit further
to the west emerging off Cuba, and the overall track guidance has
nudged a little bit further west this cycle, and the NHC track
forecast was also nudged in that direction, continuing to blend the
reliable consensus aids with the Google DeepMind ensemble mean
(GDMI).

Now that Melissa is back offshore, it has a short-term opportunity
for the hurricane to re-intensify a little as long as the larger
core that has developed is able to reorganize. Shear does start to
increase over the next 24-36 h, but the shear vector is also in the
same direction as the forward motion of the storm, which could
still allow some core reorganization of the convection while the
hurricane remains over warm 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures. Thus,
the short-term NHC forecast shows a little bit of intensification
over the next 12-24 h before weakening begins by 36 h.
Extratropical transition is expected to be well underway at or just
after Melissa passes by Bermuda, with the global model fields and
model-simulated satellite imagery show Melissa quickly losing
tropical characteristics and becoming an extratropical cyclone by 60
h. However, Melissa will still likely be a formidable extratropical
cyclone as it moves up into the Canadian Maritimes by this weekend
into early next week. The NHC intensity forecast is in good
agreement with the HAFS model guidance and HFIP Corrected Consensus
approach (HCCA).

Key Messages:

1. Eastern Cuba: Life-threatening storm surge, flash flooding and
landslides, and damaging winds are ongoing through this afternoon.
Remain in a safe shelter.

2. Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions,
life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected across
portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas today. Find a safe
shelter and follow local official guidance. Tropical storm
conditions, heavy rains, and significant storm surge are expected in
the Turks and Caicos Islands today.

3. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding and
landslides are expected across portions of Haiti and the Dominican
Republic through today. In Haiti, extensive damage and isolation of
communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected
through this afternoon.

4. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions and heavy rainfall are expected in
Bermuda beginning late Thursday and continuing through Thursday
night.

5. Post-storm safety in impacted areas: Follow advice of local
officials as you may need to remain sheltered after the storm due to
downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During
clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 21.4N 75.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 23.4N 74.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 26.9N 71.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 31.6N 67.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 37.2N 61.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 43.3N 55.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 01/1200Z 49.0N 48.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1200Z 55.0N 36.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1200Z 58.8N 18.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 291455
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

...MELISSA NOW OFFSHORE OF EAST CUBA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...
...DAMAGING WINDS, FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE FOR CUBA, BAHAMAS, AND A
DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 75.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has issued a Hurricane
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo,
Holguin, and Las Tunas
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Residents in Cuba should remain
sheltered. In the Bahamas, preparations to protect life and property
should be completed and residents should remain sheltered. In
Bermuda preparations should be underway and be completed before
anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 21.4 North,
longitude 75.6 West. Melissa is moving toward the northeast near 14
mph (22 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected during the
next few days. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is
expected to move further offshore of Eastern Cuba this morning, move
across the southeastern or central Bahamas today, and pass near or
to the west of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today into tomorrow
with little change in strength thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure measured by aircraft
dropsonde data is 974 mb (28.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the warning area in
Cuba but expected to begin subsiding this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Haiti today.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central
Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks
and Caicos Islands today.

Hurricane conditions are now expected on Bermuda late Thursday and
Thursday night with Tropical storm conditions expected earlier on
Thursday.

RAINFALL: For eastern Cuba, heavy rains will continue this morning,
tapering off this afternoon. Storm total rainfall of 10 to 20
inches with local amounts to 25 inches over mountainous terrain is
expected. This will cause life-threatening and potentially
catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches
are expected today, which will result in areas of flash flooding.
For the Turks and Caicos rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are
expected. Heavy rain may begin to affect Bermuda on Thursday or
Thursday night.

Rainfall has diminished across Jamaica. However, additional
scattered showers are possible with additional rainfall amounts of
2 to 4 inches. This will bring storm total amounts to 12 to 24
inches, with isolated areas of 30 inches possible over mountainous
terrain. Ongoing catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides
will continue today and into tonight.

Over southern Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 4 to 6 inches are
expected today, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge of 5 to 8 ft above normally dry ground is
possible in the southeastern Bahamas today, and minor coastal
flooding is possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands today.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in bays and inlets along the
north coast of eastern Cuba and minor coastal flooding is expected
along the coast of Haiti.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands during the
next day or so, and now affecting the Bahamas and the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and will spread toward Bermuda later this week,
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 290855
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0900 UTC WED OCT 29 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 76.1W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 70SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS.... 0NE 150SE 120SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 76.1W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 76.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.9N 75.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 25.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 29.0N 69.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 34.2N 64.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 45SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 140SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 40.3N 58.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 45SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 180SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 46.3N 51.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT...190NE 250SE 210SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 53.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...220NE 320SE 210SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 58.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...210NE 300SE 180SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 76.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 29/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 290256
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0300 UTC WED OCT 29 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 76.6W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 35SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT.......170NE 130SE 60SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 165SE 150SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 76.6W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 77.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.8N 75.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.4N 74.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 26.9N 71.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 31.5N 67.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 37.1N 61.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 43.2N 54.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 200SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 52.3N 36.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 300SE 240SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 57.2N 19.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 360SE 420SW 180NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 76.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 29/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 282041
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
2100 UTC TUE OCT 28 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 77.7W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 921 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 35SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT.......170NE 130SE 60SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 210SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 77.7W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 77.9W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.9N 76.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.2N 75.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 25.0N 73.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 28.9N 70.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.8N 64.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 39.0N 58.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 45SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 160SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 48.4N 42.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 200SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 54.8N 25.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...210NE 260SE 200SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 77.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 29/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 291149
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

...MELISSA CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA AND WILL SOON EMERGE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC, BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS, FLOODING
RAINS, AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE TO CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 75.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Jamaica has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Island of Jamaica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo,
Holguin, and Las Tunas
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Residents in Cuba should remain
sheltered. In the Bahamas, preparations to protect life and property
should be completed and residents should remain sheltered.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 75.7 West. Melissa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move offshore of
Eastern Cuba this morning, move across the southeastern or central
Bahamas later today, and pass near or to the west of Bermuda late
Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is expected to remain a powerful hurricane when it
moves across the Bahamas later today and passes near Bermuda on
Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the warning area in
Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti today.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central
Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks
and Caicos Islands today.

Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda late Thursday and
Thursday night.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring an additional 3 to 6 inches
across Jamaica, where storm total amounts will be between 12 to 24
inches. Isolated areas near 30 inches will be possible over
mountainous terrain. Ongoing catastrophic flash flooding and
numerous landslides will continue today and into tonight.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches are
expected through today with local amounts to 25 inches expected over
mountainous terrain. This will cause life-threatening and
potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides.

Over the Southeastern Bahamas, storm total rainfall of 5 to 10
inches are expected today, which will result in areas of flash
flooding. For the Turks and Caicos, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches
are expected. Heavy rain may begin to affect Bermuda on Thursday or
Thursday night.

Over southern Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 2 to 6 inches are
expected today, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge of 5 to 8 ft above normally dry ground is
possible in the southeastern Bahamas today, and minor coastal
flooding is possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands today.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in bays and inlets along the
north coast of eastern Cuba and minor coastal flooding is expected
along the coast of Haiti.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during
the next day or so, causing life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. These swells are beginning to reach the Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands, and will spread toward Bermuda later this
week. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 290851
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

...MELISSA BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS, FLOODING RAINS, AND DANGEROUS
STORM SURGE AS IT MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 76.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo,
Holguin, and Las Tunas
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Residents in Cuba should remain
sheltered. In the Bahamas, preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 76.1 West. Melissa is
moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to cross eastern
Cuba this morning, move across the southeastern or central Bahamas
later today, and pass near or to the west of Bermuda late Thursday
and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Melissa is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane when it moves across the Bahamas later today and passes
near Bermuda on Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). Leeward Point Field in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba,
recently reported a sustained wind of 59 mph (94 km/h) and a gust of
75 mph (120 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Damaging winds are subsiding across Jamaica, but residents
are advised to remain in a safe shelter until sunrise.

Hurricane conditions are occurring within the warning area in Cuba.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti today.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central
Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands today.

Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda late Thursday and
Thursday night.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring an additional 3 to 6 inches
across Jamaica, where storm total amounts will be between 12 to 24
inches. Isolated areas near 30 inches will be possible over
mountainous terrain. Ongoing catastrophic flash flooding and
numerous landslides will continue today and into tonight.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches are
expected through today with local amounts to 25 inches expected over
mountainous terrain. This will cause life-threatening and
potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides.

Over the Southeastern Bahamas, storm total rainfall of 5 to 10
inches are expected today, which will result in areas of flash
flooding. For the Turks and Caicos, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches
are expected. Heavy rain may begin to affect Bermuda on Thursday or
Thursday night.

Over southern Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 2 to 6 inches are
expected today, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: There is a potential for significant storm surge along
the southeast coast of Cuba this morning. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa made landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Minor coastal
flooding is possible in bays and inlets along the north coast of
eastern Cuba.

Storm surge of 5 to 8 ft above normally dry ground is possible in
the southeastern Bahamas today, and 2 to 4 ft above normally dry
ground is possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands today.

Minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast of Haiti.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during
the next day or so, causing life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. These swells are beginning to reach the Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands, and will spread toward Bermuda later this
week. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 290852
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Radar data and satellite images indicate that Melissa made landfall
in the province of Santiago de Cuba to the east of Chivirico around
0710 UTC this morning. The estimated landfall intensity of 105 kt
was based on a blend of the earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter wind
and pressure data with the available satellite intensity estimates.
The hurricane is now centered inland over eastern Cuba, where
damaging winds and heavy rainfall continue across the region. Outer
rainbands are also noted across Haiti and portions of the Bahamas
and Turks and Caicos. Land interaction with the rugged terrain of
eastern Cuba has likely caused some weakening over the past couple
of hours, so the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt.

The hurricane is moving to the northeast at 10 kt within the flow
between an upper trough over the southeastern U.S. and a subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic. After crossing eastern Cuba this
morning, Melissa is expected to continue accelerating northeastward
during the next several days. This motion will bring the core of the
hurricane over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas
later today. Then, the track models are tightly clustered on the
center of Melissa passing to the west of Bermuda late Thursday and
Thursday night. With good overall model agreement, no notable
changes were made to this portion of the NHC track forecast. There
was a leftward shift in much of the guidance at 96-120 h, and the
official track forecast was adjusted to reflect these trends.

Additional weakening is expected while the hurricane moves across
eastern Cuba this morning. Melissa is expected to remain a strong
hurricane while it crosses portions of the Bahamas later today. Over
the next few days, increasing vertical wind shear, cooler waters,
and a drier surrounding mid-level environment will likely induce
further weakening. However, Melissa is forecast to still be a
hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Bermuda later this
week. Then, the global model fields and model-simulated satellite
imagery show Melissa quickly losing tropical characteristics and
becoming an extratropical cyclone by Friday night or early Saturday.
No major changes were made to the updated NHC intensity prediction,
which remains near the middle of the intensity guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: You may need to remain sheltered after the storm due to
downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During
clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding and
landslides are expected across portions of Haiti and the Dominican
Republic through today. In Haiti, extensive damage and isolation of
communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected
through this morning.

3. Eastern Cuba: Life-threatening storm surge, flash flooding and
landslides, and damaging hurricane winds are ongoing this morning.
Remain in a safe shelter.

4. Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions,
life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected across
portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas today. Find a safe
shelter and follow local official guidance. Tropical storm
conditions, heavy rains, and significant storm surge are expected in
the Turks and Caicos Islands today.

5. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions and heavy rainfall are possible in
Bermuda beginning Thursday or Thursday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 20.3N 76.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 21.9N 75.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 25.0N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 29.0N 69.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 34.2N 64.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 31/1800Z 40.3N 58.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 46.3N 51.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/0600Z 53.5N 36.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/0600Z 58.0N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 290710
TCUAT3

Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
310 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MELISSA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA...

Satellite and radar imagery indicate that Melissa has made landfall
in the Cuban province of Santiago de Cuba near the city of Chivirico
at 310 AM EDT (0710 UTC) with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph
(195 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from the earlier
reconnaissance data is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


SUMMARY OF 310 AM EDT...0710 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 76.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF CHIVIRICO CUBA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 290551
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

...MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOON ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF EASTERN CUBA AS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 76.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo,
Holguin, and Las Tunas
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Residents in Cuba should seek
safe shelter immediately. In the Bahamas, preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 76.4 West. Melissa is
moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move over eastern
Cuba through this morning, move across the southeastern or central
Bahamas later today, and approach Bermuda Thursday and Thursday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Melissa is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane when it moves across Cuba and the Bahamas and passes near
Bermuda.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). Leeward Point Field in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba,
recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust of
69 mph (111 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Hurricane
Hunter dropsonde data is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Damaging winds are expected to gradually subside across
Jamaica, but residents are advised to remain in a safe shelter until
sunrise.

Hurricane conditions are spreading across the warning area in Cuba
and will continue through this morning. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Haiti through today.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central
Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands today.

Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda late Thursday and
Thursday night.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring an additional 4 to 8 inches
across Jamaica, where storm total amounts will be between 12 to 24
inches. Isolated areas near 30 inches will be possible over
mountainous terrain. Ongoing catastrophic flash flooding and
numerous landslides will continue through this morning.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches are
expected through today, with local amounts to 25 inches expected
over mountainous terrain. This will cause life-threatening and
potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches
are expected through today, which will result in areas of flash
flooding. For the Turks and Caicos, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches
are expected. Heavy rain may begin to affect Bermuda Thursday night.

Over southern Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 2 to 6 inches are
expected through today, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches
possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: There is a potential for significant storm surge along
the southeast coast of Cuba early today. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Minor coastal
flooding is possible in bays and inlets along the north coast of
eastern Cuba.

Storm surge of 5 to 8 ft above normally dry ground is possible in
the southeastern Bahamas today, and 2 to 4 ft above normally dry
ground is possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands today.

Minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast of Haiti.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during
the next day or so, causing life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. These swells will reach the Bahamas and the Turks and
Caicos Islands early this morning, and Bermuda later this week.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 290255
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...MELISSA RE-STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL THERE AS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 76.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Jamaica has replaced the Hurricane Warning with a
Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo,
Holguin, and Las Tunas
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Residents in Jamaica should
remain in a safe shelter. In the warning area in Cuba, residents
should seek safe shelter immediately. In the Bahamas, preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 76.6 West. Melissa is
moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move over eastern
Cuba later tonight and early Wednesday morning, move across the
southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday, and approach
Bermuda Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Melissa is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane when it moves across Cuba, the Bahamas, and near
Bermuda.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: The damaging winds are expected to gradually subside across
Jamaica, but it is advised to remain in a safe shelter until
sunrise.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba
through Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in Haiti tonight and Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central
Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and
hurricane conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands on
Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Thursday and Thursday
night.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring an additional 4 to 8 inches
across Jamaica, where storm total amounts will be between 12 to 24
inches. Isolated areas near 30 inches will be possible over
mountainous terrain. Ongoing catastrophic flash flooding and
numerous landslides will continue through Tuesday night.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches are
expected through Wednesday, with local amounts to 25 inches expected
over mountainous terrain. This will cause life-threatening and
potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches
are expected through Wednesday, which will result in areas of flash
flooding. For the Turks and Caicos, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches
are expected. Heavy rain may begin to affect Bermuda Thursday night.

Over southern Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 2 to 6 inches are
expected through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40
inches possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: There is a potential for significant storm surge along
the southeast coast of Cuba through early Wednesday. Peak storm
surge heights could reach 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels,
near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall.
This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Minor coastal flooding is possible in bays and inlets along the
north coast of eastern Cuba.

Storm surge of 5 to 8 ft above normally dry ground is possible in
the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and 2 to 4 ft above normally
dry ground in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

Minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast of Haiti.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during
the next day or so, causing life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. These swells will reach the Bahamas and the Turks and
Caicos Islands overnight, and Bermuda later this week. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 290256
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Melissa's passage over Jamaica this afternoon and evening caused a
significant amount of weakening. The pressure rose nearly 60 mb,
and the maximum winds decreased by about 50 kt based on data
collected by the NOAA Hurricane Hunters earlier this evening.
However, now that the core is pulling away from Jamaica, satellite
images and radar data from Cuba show that the eye is becoming better
defined again and the eyewall is gaining symmetry. Melissa appears
to be on a strengthening trend, and based on a combination of the
earlier aircraft data and the latest satellite intensity estimates,
the initial wind speed is set at 115 kt. The inner core appears
larger than it was earlier today.

The hurricane has turned to the northeast and is currently moving at
040/8 kt. A trough is expected to amplify and shift eastward across
the southeast U.S. during the next few days. This feature combined
with a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic should cause
Melissa to accelerate northeastward through the end of the week.
This motion should take the core of Melissa over eastern Cuba
overnight, and then across portions of the southeast and central
Bahamas on Wednesday. Melissa will likely be in the vicinity of
Bermuda late Thursday. The models are in good agreement, but there
is some along-track (timing) spread. The NHC track forecast is
similar to the previous one and near a blend of the HCCA and Google
DeepMind ensemble mean.

Melissa is expected to continue to strengthen until it reaches Cuba
in a few hours, and it is expected to make landfall there as a very
dangerous major hurricane. After Melissa moves inland, the passage
over the rugged island combined with a gradual increase in vertical
wind shear and intrusions of dry air should cause the hurricane to
gradually weaken through the period. That being said, Melissa is
still expected to be a powerful hurricane when it moves through the
Bahamas and near Bermuda. The models suggest that Melissa should
complete extratropical transition by 72 hours when it is forecast to
have crossed the north wall of the Gulf Stream current. The NHC
intensity forecast is above the guidance in the short term, based on
recent data trends, but generally near the middle of the guidance
envelope from 36 to 120 h.

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Although Melissa is pulling away from the island,
deadly hazards remain including downed power lines and flooded
areas. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and placed outside
at least 20 feet away from doors, windows, and garages to avoid
carbon monoxide poisoning. If you are cleaning up storm damage, be
careful when using chainsaws and power tools, and drink plenty of
water to avoid heat exhaustion.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding and
landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern
portions of the Dominican Republic during the next day or so. In
Haiti, extensive damage and isolation of communities is likely.
Tropical storm conditions are expected into Wednesday.

3. Eastern Cuba: Life-threatening storm surge, flash flooding and
landslides, and extremely damaging hurricane winds are likely
through Wednesday morning. Seek safe shelter now.

4. Southeastern and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos:
Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall are expected across portions of the southeastern and
central Bahamas on Wednesday. Complete preparations by tonight and
follow local official guidance. Tropical storm conditions, heavy
rains, and significant storm surge are expected in the Turks and
Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

5. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions and heavy rainfall are possible in
Bermuda beginning Thursday or Thursday night, where a Hurricane
Watch is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 19.3N 76.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 20.8N 75.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 23.4N 74.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 26.9N 71.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 31.5N 67.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 31/1200Z 37.1N 61.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 43.2N 54.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/0000Z 52.3N 36.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/0000Z 57.2N 19.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 282341
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...POWERFUL MELISSA MOVING TOWARD EASTERN CUBA...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 77.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo,
Holguin, and Las Tunas
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Residents in Jamaica should
remain in a safe shelter. In the warning area in Cuba, residents
should seek safe shelter immediately. In the Bahamas, preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 77.2 West. Melissa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected later this evening, and a faster
motion in that direction is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On
the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move over
eastern Cuba later tonight and early Wednesday morning, move across
the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday, and approach
Bermuda Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Melissa is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane when it moves across Cuba, the Bahamas, and near
Bermuda.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from a
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: The damaging winds are expected to gradually subside across
Jamaica, but it is advised to remain in a safe shelter until
sunrise.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba
later tonight through Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Haiti tonight and Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central
Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and
hurricane conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands on
Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Thursday and Thursday
night.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring an additional 6 to 12 inches
across Jamaica, where storm total amounts will be between 12 to 24
inches. Isolated areas near 30 inches will be possible over
mountainous terrain. Ongoing catastrophic flash flooding and
numerous landslides will continue through Tuesday night.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches is
expected through Wednesday, with local amounts to 25 inches expected
over mountainous terrain. This will cause life-threatening and
potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches
is expected through Wednesday, which will result in areas of flash
flooding. For the Turks and Caicos, rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches are expected. Heavy rain may begin to affect Bermuda Thursday
night.

Over southern Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 2 to 6 inches is
expected through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40
inches possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: On the northwest coast of Jamaica, near Montego Bay,
there is the possibility of 2 to 4 feet of storm surge above ground
level. Storm surge flooding on the southern coast of Jamaica should
subside later tonight.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba through early Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Minor coastal
flooding is possible in bays and inlets along the north coast of
eastern Cuba.

Storm surge of 5 to 8 ft above normally dry ground is possible in
the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and 2 to 4 ft above normally
dry ground in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

Minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast of Haiti.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next day or so, causing life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. These swells will reach the Bahamas and the Turks and
Caicos Islands overnight, and Bermuda later this week. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 282051
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...CENTER OF MELISSA EMERGING FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN
JAMAICA...
...DAMAGING WINDS. CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING, AND
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUES IN JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 77.7W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has issued a Hurricane Watch
for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo,
Holguin, and Las Tunas
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Residents in Jamaica should
remain in a safe shelter. In the warning area in Cuba, residents
should seek safe shelter. In the Bahamas, preparations to protect
life and property should be completed later tonight.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 77.7 West. Melissa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
this evening, followed by a faster northeastward motion on
Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa
will move away from western Jamaica this evening. After that, the
center is expected to move over southeastern Cuba later tonight
and early Wednesday morning, move across the southeastern or central
Bahamas later on Wednesday, and approach Bermuda Thursday and
Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Melissa is expected to reach southeastern
Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and it could
still be a major hurricane when it moves across the southeastern
Bahamas. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will
be investigating Melissa this evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 921 mb (27.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Damaging winds will continue across portions of Jamaica
through this evening, especially in mountainous areas. Remain in a
safe shelter in Jamaica through tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are spreading across eastern Cuba, with
hurricane conditions expected in the hurricane warning area
starting tonight into Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Haiti tonight and Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central
Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and
hurricane conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands on
Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Thursday and Thursday
night.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring an additional 6 to 12 inches
across Jamaica, where storm total amounts will be between 12 to 24
inches. Isolated areas near 30 inches will be possible over
mountainous terrain. Ongoing catastrophic flash flooding and
numerous landslides will continue through Tuesday night.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches is
expected through Wednesday, with local amounts to 25 inches expected
over mountainous terrain. This will cause life-threatening and
potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches
is expected through Wednesday, which will result in areas of flash
flooding. For the Turks and Caicos, rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches are expected. Heavy rain may begin to affect Bermuda Thursday
night.

Over southern Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 2 to 6 inches is
expected through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40
inches possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: On the northwest coast of Jamaica, near Montego Bay,
there is the possibility of 2 to 4 feet of storm surge above ground
level. Storm surge flooding on the southern coast of Jamaica should
subside tonight.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late today or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Minor coastal
flooding is possible in bays and inlets along the north coast of
eastern Cuba.

Storm surge of 5 to 8 ft above normally dry ground is possible in
the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and 2 to 4 ft above normally
dry ground in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

Minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast of Haiti.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next day or two, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. These swells will reach the Bahamas, the Turks
and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda later this week. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 282052
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

The eye of Melissa made landfall in western Jamaica near 17Z with
maximum sustained winds estimated at 160 kt and a central pressure
near 892 mb. Since that time, the hurricane has been weakening over
the mountains of western Jamaica with the eye disappearing and some
warming of the convective cloud tops. Based on these changes, the
initial intensity has been reduced to a highly uncertain 125 kt.
NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled
to investigate Melissa this evening to provide better information
on how much it has weakened. It should be noted that while
Melissa's landfall intensity is among the strongest ever recorded
in the Atlantic basin, it will take extensive post-analysis to
determine exactly where it ranks among landfalling Atlantic
hurricanes.

The initial motion is now 025/7. A turn toward the northeast with
an increase in forward speed is expected this evening, and this
should bring the center near or over southeastern Cuba late tonight
or early Wednesday. After that, an even faster motion toward the
northeast should bring the center through the southeastern and
central Bahamas on Wednesday and near Bermuda Thursday or Thursday
night. After passing Bermuda, the cyclone should continue quickly
northeastward into the north Atlantic. The track guidance envelope
has shifted a little to the left (north and west) through 72 h
since the last advisory, and the new forecast track during this
time is also shifted a little to the north and west.

While the center of Melissa is now emerging over water, it will
probably not re-intensify significantly before landfall in Cuba due
to the limited amount of time before landfall and an upper-level
wind environment that is becoming less favorable. Based on this, the
intensity forecast calls for little change in strength before
Melissa reaches Cuba. After leaving Cuba, Melissa should encounter
increasing southwesterly vertical shear that should cause gradual
weakening, although the cyclone should still be at hurricane
strength when it passes near Bermuda. Based on global model
guidance, Melissa is forecast to become a strong extratropical
cyclone over the North Atlantic by 96 h.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Remain in a safe shelter tonight. Damaging winds will
continue over portions of Jamaica this evening. Catastrophic flash
flooding, and landslides, are expected across the island tonight
with widespread infrastructure damage, power and communication
outages, and isolated communities.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding
and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern
portions of the Dominican Republic during the next day or so. In
Haiti, extensive damage and isolation of communities is likely.
Tropical storm conditions are expected later today and Wednesday.

3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall, flash flooding and landslides are
expected soon. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are
likely to begin later today. Seek safe shelter.

4. Southeastern and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos:
Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall are expected across portions of the southeastern and
central Bahamas on Wednesday. Complete preparations by tonight and
follow local official guidance. Tropical storm conditions, heavy
rains, and significant storm surge are expected in the Turks and
Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

5. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions and heavy rainfall are possible in
Bermuda beginning Thursday or Thursday night where a Hurricane
Watch is now in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 18.5N 77.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 19.9N 76.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 22.2N 75.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 25.0N 73.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 28.9N 70.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 31/0600Z 33.8N 64.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 39.0N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 48.4N 42.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1800Z 54.8N 25.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 281957
TCUAT3

Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
400 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE ONGOING IN
JAMAICA...
...MELISSA REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OVER
NORTHWESTERN JAMAICA...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION!
Residents should not leave their shelter and should remain in place
through the passage of these life-threatening conditions. To protect
yourself from wind, the best thing you can do is put as many walls
as possible between you and the outside. An interior room without
windows, ideally one where you can also avoid falling trees, is the
safest place you can be in a building. You can cover yourself with a
mattress and wear a helmet for added protection.

The next update will be with the full advisory package at 500 PM
EDT (2100 UTC). This is the last scheduled position update.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 77.9W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM S OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES


$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 281900
TCUAT3

Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
300 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE ONGOING IN
JAMAICA...
...REMAIN SHELTERED IN YOUR SAFE PLACE...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! Do
not leave your shelter as the eye passes over, as winds will rapidly
increase on the other side of the eye. Residents should not leave
their shelter and should remain in place through the passage of
these life-threatening conditions.

To protect yourself from wind, the best thing you can do is put as
many walls as possible between you and the outside. An interior room
without windows, ideally one where you can also avoid falling trees,
is the safest place you can be in a building. You can cover yourself
with a mattress and wear a helmet for added protection.

The next position update will be provided at 400 PM EDT (2000 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 77.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM S OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB...26.75 INCHES


$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 281753
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 MELISSA CROSSING WESTERN
JAMAICA...
...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE OCCURRING ON
THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 78.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...899 MB...26.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo,
Holguin, and Las Tunas
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Residents in Jamaica should
remain in a safe shelter. In the warning area in Cuba and the
Bahamas, preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa.
Watches could be required later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located
over western Jamaica near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 78.0 West.
Melissa is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is
expected later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on
Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa
will cross western Jamaica during the next few hours and then move
back into the Caribbean Sea. After that, the center is expected to
move across southeastern Cuba early Wednesday morning, and move
across the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued weakening is expected while the
center is over Jamaica. However, Melissa is expected to reach
southeastern Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and it
will still be a strong hurricane when it moves across the
southeastern Bahamas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 899 mb (26.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic hurricane-force winds are spreading over
Jamaica within the eyewall of Melissa. Total structural failure
is likely near the path of Melissa, especially in higher elevation
areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and
mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger. Do not venture out
in the eye as winds will rapidly increase within the backside of the
eyewall.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba
during the next few hours, with hurricane conditions expected in
the hurricane warning area starting tonight into Wednesday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti later today and
Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central
Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and
hurricane conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands on
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches with
localized maximum to 12 inches for southern Hispaniola through
Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible.
Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with
local amounts to 25 inches, is expected into Wednesday resulting in
life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with
numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, rain is expected to develop later today
and continue into Wednesday. Total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is
expected to result in areas of flash flooding. For the Turks and
Caicos rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected. Heavy rain
may begin to affect Bermuda Thursday night.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the
south coast of Jamaica today. Peak storm surge heights could reach
9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the
center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. On the northwest coast
of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the possibility of 2 to 4
feet of storm surge above ground level.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late today or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Storm surge of 5 to 8 ft above normally dry ground is possible in
the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and 2 to 4 ft above normally
dry ground in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

Minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast of Haiti.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next day or two, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. These swells will reach the Bahamas, the Turks
and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda later this week. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 281701
TCUAT3

Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
100 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...CATEGORY 5 MELISSA MAKES LANDFALL IN JAMAICA...
...ONE OF THE MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE LANDFALLS ON RECORD IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN...

Melissa has made landfall in southwestern Jamaica near New Hope with
estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) and an
estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb (26.34 inches).

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! Do
not leave your shelter as the eye passes over, as winds will
quickly, and rapidly increase on the other side of the eye.
Residents should remain in place through the passage of these
life-threatening conditions. To protect yourself from wind, the
best thing you can do is put as many walls as possible between you
and the outside. An interior room without windows, ideally one where
you can also avoid falling trees, is the safest place you can be in
a building. You can cover yourself with a mattress and wear a
helmet for added protection.

The next position update will be provided with the intermediate
advisory at 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 78.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES


$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 281558
TCUAT3

Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1200 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...MELISSA'S EYE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA...
...STAY IN YOUR SHELTER...
...1200 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! Do
not leave your shelter as the eye passes over, as winds will
quickly, and rapidly increase on the other side of the eye.
Residents should remain in place through the passage of these
life-threatening conditions. To protect yourself from wind, the
best thing you can do is put as many walls as possible between you
and the outside. An interior room without windows, ideally one where
you can also avoid falling trees, is the safest place you can be in
a building. You can cover yourself with a mattress and wear a
helmet for added protection.

The next update will be provided at 100 PM EDT (1700 UTC), or as
needed for landfall.

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 78.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...55 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 281458 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 29...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Corrected Tropical Storm Warning section to add Turks and Caicos

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 MELISSA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
JAMAICA...
...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE OCCURRING ON
THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 77.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
province of Las Tunas and a Tropical Storm Warning for the province
of Camaguey.

The Meteorological Service of the Bahamas has discontinued the
Hurricane Watch for the Turks and Caicos islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo,
Holguin, and Las Tunas
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Residents in Jamaica should
remain in a safe shelter. In the warning area in Cuba and the
Bahamas, preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa.
Watches could be required later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 77.9 West. Melissa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday
and Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is
expected to make landfall on Jamaica during the next couple of
hours, move across southeastern Cuba early Wednesday morning, and
move across the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before
Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica. Melissa is expected to reach
Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely dangerous major
hurricane, and it will still be a strong hurricane when it moves
across the southeastern Bahamas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 892 mb (26.34 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic hurricane-force winds are spreading over
Jamaica within the eyewall of Melissa. Total structural failure
is likely near the path of Melissa, especially in higher elevation
areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and
mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger. Do not venture out
in the eye as winds will rapidly increase within the backside of the
eyewall.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba
this afternoon, with hurricane conditions expected in the hurricane
warning area starting tonight into Wednesday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Haiti later today and Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central
Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and
hurricane conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands on
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches with
localized maximum to 12 inches for southern Hispaniola through
Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible.
Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with
local amounts to 25 inches, is expected into Wednesday resulting in
life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with
numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, rain is expected to develop later today
and continue into Wednesday. Total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is
expected to result in areas of flash flooding. For the Turks and
Caicos rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected. Heavy rain
may begin to affect Bermuda Thursday night.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the
south coast of Jamaica today. Peak storm surge heights could reach
9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the
center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. On the northwest coast
of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the possibility of 2 to 4
feet of storm surge above ground level.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late today or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Storm surge of 5 to 8 ft above normally dry ground is possible in
the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and 2 to 4 ft above normally
dry ground in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

Minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast of Haiti.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next day or two, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. These swells will reach the Bahamas, the Turks
and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda later this week. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 281452
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
show that Melissa has strengthened since the last advisory. The
central pressure inside the 15 n mi wide eye has fallen to near
892 mb, and the NOAA aircraft reported flight-level winds of 172 kt
at 700 mb. Based on these data, the the initial intensity has been
increased to 160 kt.

The initial motion is now 025/8. This general motion should
continue with some increase in forward speed, with the center
making landfall in Jamaica in a couple of hours and reaching
eastern Cuba late tonight or early Wednesday. After that, a faster
motion toward the northeast should bring the center through the
southeastern and central Bahamas on Wednesday and near Bermuda
Thursday or Thursday night. After passing Bermuda the cyclone
should continue quickly northeastward into the north Atlantic. The
new forecast track is similar to the previous track through 36 h
and a little north of the previous track after that time.

Melissa should weaken over Jamaica as the inner core gets disrupted
by the mountainous terrain. However, the cyclone should maintain
major hurricane status until the center reaches eastern Cuba.
After leaving Cuba, Melissa should encounter increasing
southwesterly vertical shear that should cause steady weakening,
although the cyclone should still be at hurricane strength when it
passes near Bermuda. Based on global model guidance, Melissa is
forecast to become a strong extratropical cyclone over the North
Atlantic by 96 h.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION! TAKE COVER NOW! Catastrophic winds with total
structural failure are liklely near the path of Melissa’s center.
Catstrophic flash flooding, landslides, and destructive winds are
expected across the remainder of the island causing widespread
infrastructure damage, power and communication outages, and isolated
communities. Along the southern coast, life-threatening storm surge
and damaging waves are expected through the day.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding
and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern
portions of the Dominican Republic through midweek. In Haiti,
extensive damage and isolation of communities is likely. Tropical
storm conditions are expected later today and Wednesday.

3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall, flash flooding and landslides are
expected soon. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are
likely to begin later today. Complete all preparations now.

4. Southeastern and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos:
Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall are expected across portions of the southeastern and
central Bahamas on Wednesday. Complete preparations by tonight and
follow local official guidance. Tropical storm conditions, heavy
rains, and significant storm surge are expected in the Turks and
Caicos Islands on Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 17.9N 77.9W 160 KT 185 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 19.0N 77.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 21.0N 75.7W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0000Z 23.4N 74.1W 95 KT 110 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 30/1200Z 26.6N 71.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 31/0000Z 30.8N 67.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 35.9N 61.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 45.9N 47.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1200Z 52.8N 30.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 281452
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 MELISSA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
JAMAICA...
...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE OCCURRING ON
THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 77.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
province of Las Tunas and a Tropical Storm Warning for the province
of Camaguey.

The Meteorological Service of the Bahamas has discontinued the
Hurricane Watch for the Turks and Caicos islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo,
Holguin, and Las Tunas
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Camaguey

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Residents in Jamaica should
remain in a safe shelter. In the warning area in Cuba and the
Bahamas, preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa.
Watches could be required later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 77.9 West. Melissa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday
and Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is
expected to make landfall on Jamaica during the next couple of
hours, move across southeastern Cuba early Wednesday morning, and
move across the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before
Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica. Melissa is expected to reach
Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely dangerous major
hurricane, and it will still be a strong hurricane when it moves
across the southeastern Bahamas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 892 mb (26.34 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic hurricane-force winds are spreading over
Jamaica within the eyewall of Melissa. Total structural failure
is likely near the path of Melissa, especially in higher elevation
areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and
mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger. Do not venture out
in the eye as winds will rapidly increase within the backside of the
eyewall.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba
this afternoon, with hurricane conditions expected in the hurricane
warning area starting tonight into Wednesday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Haiti later today and Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central
Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and
hurricane conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands on
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches with
localized maximum to 12 inches for southern Hispaniola through
Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible.
Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with
local amounts to 25 inches, is expected into Wednesday resulting in
life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with
numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, rain is expected to develop later today
and continue into Wednesday. Total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is
expected to result in areas of flash flooding. For the Turks and
Caicos rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected. Heavy rain
may begin to affect Bermuda Thursday night.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the
south coast of Jamaica today. Peak storm surge heights could reach
9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the
center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. On the northwest coast
of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the possibility of 2 to 4
feet of storm surge above ground level.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late today or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Storm surge of 5 to 8 ft above normally dry ground is possible in
the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and 2 to 4 ft above normally
dry ground in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

Minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast of Haiti.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next day or two, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. These swells will reach the Bahamas, the Turks
and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda later this week. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 281451
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1500 UTC TUE OCT 28 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 77.9W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 892 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 160 KT WITH GUSTS TO 190 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 35SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT.......170NE 130SE 60SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 210SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 77.9W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 78.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.0N 77.1W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.0N 75.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.4N 74.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 26.6N 71.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 30.8N 67.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 35.9N 61.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 160SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 45.9N 47.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 70SW 40NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 200SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 52.8N 30.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...210NE 260SE 200SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 77.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 28/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 281401
TCUAT3

Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1000 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...CATASTROPHIC WINDS MOVING ONSHORE SOUTHERN JAMAICA...
...LAST CHANCE TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...
...1000 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! TAKE
COVER NOW! Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious
injury, and loss of life. Residents in Jamaica that experience the
eye should not leave their shelter as winds will rapidly increase
within the backside of the eyewall of Melissa.

To protect yourself from wind, the best thing you can do is put as
many walls as possible between you and the outside. An interior room
without windows, ideally one where you can also avoid falling trees,
is the safest place you can be in a building. You can cover yourself
with a mattress and wear a helmet for added protection.

NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft find that Melissa continues to
strengthen with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h).The
minimum central pressure has fallen to 892 mb (26.34 inches) based
on NOAA and Hurricane Hunter Air Force Reserve aircraft data.

The next update will be provided with the full advisory package at
1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 78.1W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 281259
TCUAT3

Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
900 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MELISSA STRONGER AS THE
NORTHERN EYEWALL IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA...
...900 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

The eye of Melissa is nearing the southern coast of Jamaica and is
expected to make landfall within the next few hours. This is an
extremely dangerous and a life-threatening situation. Take action
now to protect your life! Residents in the Jamaica should not leave
their shelter as winds will rapidly increase within the eyewall of
Melissa. Remain in place through the passage of these life-
threatening conditions.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found that
Melissa is strengthening with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph
(290 km/h). Estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft
data has fallen to 896 mb (26.47 inches).

Another position update will be provided at 1000 AM EDT (1400 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 78.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...290 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...896 MB...26.47 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 281150
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 MELISSA APPROACHING
WESTERN JAMAICA...
...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED ON
THE ISLAND TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 78.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...901 MB...26.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Las Tunas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Residents in Jamaica should
remain in a safe shelter. In the warning area in Cuba and the
Bahamas, preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa.
Watches could be required later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located
near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 78.1 West. Melissa is moving
toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today,
followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday.
On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to make
landfall on Jamaica during the next several hours, move across
southeastern Cuba Wednesday morning, and move across the
southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected
before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica. Melissa is expected to
reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely dangerous major
hurricane, and it will still be at hurricane strength when it moves
across the southeastern Bahamas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). During the past few hours, Norman Manley
International Airport in Kingston, Jamaica, reported a sustained
wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust of 59 mph (93 km/h). Also
during the past few hours, Sangster International Airport in Montego
Bay, Jamaica, reported a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a
gust of 54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 901 mb (26.61 inches). An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is enroute to
investigate Melissa.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in Jamaica, and
catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected to begin during
the next few hours. Within the eyewall, total structural failure is
likely, especially in higher elevation areas where wind speeds atop
and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30
percent stronger.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba
today, with hurricane conditions expected in the hurricane warning
area starting tonight into Wednesday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Haiti later today and Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central
Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and
hurricane conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands on
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 6 to 12 inches for
southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima
of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with
local amounts to 25 inches, is expected into Wednesday resulting in
life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with
numerous landslides.

Over the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, rain is
expected to develop later today and continue into Wednesday. Total
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected to result in areas of flash
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the
south coast of Jamaica today. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9
to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the
center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. On the northwest coast
of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the possibility of 2 to 4
feet of storm surge above ground level.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late today or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Storm surge of 4 to 6 ft above normally dry ground is possible in
the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. These swells will reach the Bahamas, the Turks
and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda later this week. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 281138
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ON JAMAICA AS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 5 MELISSA SLOWLY APPROACHES...
...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED ON
THE ISLAND TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 78.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...901 MB...26.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Las Tunas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete in Jamaica and rushed to completion
in Cuba.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa.
Watches could be required later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 78.3 West. Melissa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday
and Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is
expected to move over Jamaica today, across southeastern Cuba
Wednesday morning, and across the southeastern or central Bahamas
later on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica later today. However,
Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an
extremely dangerous major hurricane, and it will still be at
hurricane strength when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km). Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston,
Jamaica, recently reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and
a gust of 58 mph (93 km/h). Sangster International Airport in
Montego Bay, Jamaica, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph
(65 km/h) and a gust of 56 mph (91 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 901 mb (26.61 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in Jamaica, and
catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected to begin this
morning. Within the eyewall, total structural failure is likely,
especially in higher elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on
the windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent
stronger.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba
today, with hurricane conditions expected in the hurricane warning
area starting tonight into Wednesday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Haiti later today and Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central
Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and
hurricane conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands on
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 6 to 12 inches for
southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima
of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with
local amounts to 25 inches, is expected into Wednesday resulting in
life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with
numerous landslides.

Over the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, rain is
expected to develop later today and continue into Wednesday. Total
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected to result in areas of flash
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the
south coast of Jamaica today. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9
to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the
center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. On the northwest coast
of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the possibility of 2 to 4
feet of storm surge above ground level.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late today or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Storm surge of 4 to 6 ft above normally dry ground is possible in
the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. These swells will reach the Bahamas, the Turks
and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda later this week. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 280857
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Melissa has a circular, 10-n-mi-wide eye surrounded by a symmetric
ring of very intense convection with cloud tops colder than -80 deg
C. Radar data from Jamaica suggests that a secondary outer eyewall
may have formed, which could signal that an eyewall replacement
cycle is underway. The last couple of overnight center fixes by the
Air Force Hurricane Hunters revealed 700-mb height falls within the
eye, and dropsonde data indicated the central pressure had fallen to
around 901 mb. A standard reduction of the peak 700-mb flight-level
winds from that mission (165 kt) supports an initial intensity of
150 kt. Conditions are deteriorating across Jamaica, where heavy
rainfall and tropical storm conditions have spread across the
island. NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled
to investigate the hurricane again this morning.

Melissa is moving slowly north-northeastward (025/4 kt). Over the
next several days, the hurricane is expected to accelerate to the
northeast within the flow ahead of an amplifying trough over the
southeastern U.S. This steering flow will bring the core of Melissa
across Jamaica today, over eastern Cuba early Wednesday, and across
the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday. Then, the
hurricane is forecast to pass near Bermuda Thursday night or early
Friday. Overall, the near-term NHC track forecast is very similar to
the previous one. At 72-120 h, the official forecast was adjusted to
the left of the previous prediction based on the latest multi-model
consensus aids and Google DeepMind ensemble guidance.

Near-term intensity fluctuations are possible this morning and will
likely be driven by internal dynamic processes like eyewall
replacement cycles. Regardless, Melissa will reach Jamaica as an
extremely dangerous major hurricane within the next 12 h. While land
interaction with Jamaica and eastern Cuba is expected to cause some
weakening, Melissa is still forecast to pass over portions of the
Bahamas as a strong hurricane on Wednesday. Increasing westerly
shear is likely to impact Melissa later this week while the
hurricane accelerates toward higher latitudes. As a result, the
hurricane is forecast to have a broader and asymmetric wind field
when it passes near Bermuda later this week. Some minor upward
adjustments were made to the NHC intensity forecast during the
middle portion of the period in agreement with the latest HCCA
and GDMI aids. Melissa is forecast to become a strong extratropical
cyclone over the North Atlantic by 96 h.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Remain sheltered! Catastrophic flash flooding,
landslides, and destructive winds will continue through today,
causing widespread infrastructure damage, power and communication
outages, and isolated communities. Total structural failure is
possible near the path of Melissa’s center. Along the southern
coast, life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected
through the day. Failure to act may result in serious injury or loss
of life.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding
and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern
portions of the Dominican Republic through midweek. In Haiti,
extensive damage and isolation of communities is likely. Tropical
storm conditions are expected later today and Wednesday.

3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall, flash flooding and landslides are
expected soon. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are
likely to begin later today. Complete all preparations now.

4. Southeastern and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos:
Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall are expected across portions of the southeastern and
central Bahamas on Wednesday. Complete preparations by tonight and
follow local official guidance. Tropical storm conditions, heavy
rains, and significant storm surge are expected in the Turks and
Caicos Islands on Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 17.2N 78.3W 150 KT 175 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 18.2N 77.7W 145 KT 165 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/0600Z 19.9N 76.5W 120 KT 140 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 29/1800Z 21.9N 75.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 24.6N 73.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 28.1N 70.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 32.4N 65.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 43.0N 52.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/0600Z 51.0N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 280855
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0900 UTC TUE OCT 28 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 78.3W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 901 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 35SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT.......170NE 130SE 60SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 78.3W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 78.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.2N 77.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.9N 76.5W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.9N 75.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.6N 73.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 28.1N 70.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 32.4N 65.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 160SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 43.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 40NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 200SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 51.0N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 250SE 200SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 78.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 28/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 280546
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...MELISSA EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM
SURGE TO JAMAICA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...901 MB...26.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Las Tunas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete in Jamaica and rushed to completion
in Cuba.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 78.4 West. Melissa is moving
toward the north-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected today,
followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday.
On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move over
Jamaica today, across southeastern Cuba Wednesday morning, and
across the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday.

Data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica later today. However,
Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an
extremely dangerous major hurricane, and will still be at hurricane
strength when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston,
Jamaica, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h)
and a gust of 52 mph (83 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 901 mb (26.61 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in Jamaica, and
catastrophic and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
to begin this morning. Within the eyewall, total structural failure
is likely, especially in higher elevation areas where wind speeds
atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to
30 percent stronger.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba
today, with hurricane conditions expected in the hurricane warning
area starting tonight into Wednesday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Haiti later today and Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central
Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and
hurricane conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands on
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 6 to 12 inches for
southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima
of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with
local amounts to 25 inches, is expected into Wednesday resulting in
life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with
numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is
expected today into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the
south coast of Jamaica today. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9
to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the
center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. On the northwest coast
of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the possibility of 2 to 4
feet of storm surge above ground level.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late today or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Storm surge of 4 to 6 ft above normally dry ground is possible in
the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. These swells will reach the Bahamas, the Turks
and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda later this week. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 280258
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been
investigating Melissa this evening. They found that the system
is maintaining category 5 intensity with the central pressure near
903 mb and peak 700 mb flight-level and tail Doppler radar winds
supporting 150 kt for the current intensity. The hurricane
continues to exhibit a well-defined eye about 10 n mi in diameter
embedded within extremely cold cloud tops to near -90 deg C.
Upper-level outflow remains well defined over the system. Although
such intense tropical cyclones typically undergo an eyewall
replacement, radar observations from Jamaica do not show this
occurring thus far.

After remaining nearly stationary over the past few hours, Melissa
now appears to be moving slowly north-northeastward with an initial
motion estimate of around 020/02 kt. During the next few days, a
mid-tropospheric trough is forecast to deepen near the southeastern
U.S. coast. This should result in Melissa moving
north-northeastward to northeastward with increasing forward speed
through the forecast period. The official forecast is similar to
the previous one and also close the tightly-clustered consensus and
Google DeepMind guidance. The only significant difference in the
track forecast compared to earlier today is a slower motion during
the first couple of days, which delays the expected arrival of the
core of Melissa over Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern or
Central Bahamas.

Some fluctuations in intensity could still occur during the short
period before Melissa reaches Jamaica. The primary influence on
the hurricane's intensity during the next 36 hours will be the
interaction with land. Some weakening is anticipated after the
system moves over Jamaica and eastern Cuba. More substantial
weakening is likely after the system moves past Cuba and over the
southwestern Atlantic, where the vertical wind shear is likely to
increase significantly. The official intensity forecast is close
to the latest LGEM guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Remain in your safe shelter. Catastrophic flash flooding
and numerous landslides are expected through Tuesday. The eyewall’s
destructive winds may cause total structural failure, particularly
in higher elevations, leading to widespread infrastructural damage,
prolonged power and communication outages, and isolated communities.
Along the southern coast, life-threatening storm surge and damaging
waves are anticipated through Tuesday. Failure to take immediate
action may result in serious injury or significant loss of life.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding
and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern
portions of the Dominican Republic through midweek. In Haiti,
extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities is
likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected late Tuesday and
Wednesday.

3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall with life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides is expected to begin shortly.
Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are expected late
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Preparations should be rushed to
completion.

4. Southeast and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane
conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of the southeast and central Bahamas on
Wednesday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials
and be sure to have preparations complete by Tuesday night.
Tropical storm conditions, heavy rains, and a significant storm
surge is expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 16.6N 78.5W 150 KT 175 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 17.5N 78.3W 150 KT 175 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 18.8N 77.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 20.7N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0000Z 23.0N 74.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 30/1200Z 25.8N 72.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 29.8N 68.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 38.9N 56.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 47.5N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 280257
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...MELISSA EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING
WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 78.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...903 MB...26.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Las Tunas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete in Jamaica and rushed to completion
in Cuba.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 78.5 West. Melissa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
on Tuesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday
and Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is
expected to move near or over Jamaica on Tuesday, across
southeastern Cuba Wednesday morning, and across the southeastern
or central Bahamas later on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica. However, Melissa is
expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely
powerful major hurricane, and will still be at hurricane strength
when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 903 mb (26.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in Jamaica, and
catastrophic and life-threatening hurricane-force wind conditions
are expected to begin Tuesday morning. Within the eyewall, total
structural failure is likely, especially in higher elevation areas
where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and
mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba on
Tuesday, with hurricane conditions expected to begin in the
hurricane warning area starting Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti late
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central
Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday with hurricane conditions
also possible on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 6 to 12 inches for
southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima
of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with
local amounts to 25 inches, is expected into Wednesday resulting in
life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with
numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is
expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the
south coast of Jamaica late tonight and on Tuesday. Peak storm
surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and
to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This
storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. On
the northwest coast of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the
possibility of 2 to 4 feet of storm surge above ground level.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Storm surge of 4 to 6 ft above normally dry ground is possible in
the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days, and the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and Bermuda later this week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 280256
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0300 UTC TUE OCT 28 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 78.5W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 903 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT.......170NE 130SE 50SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 78.5W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 78.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.5N 78.3W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.8N 77.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.7N 76.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.0N 74.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 25.8N 72.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 29.8N 68.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 150SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 38.9N 56.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 47.5N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 100SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 190SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 78.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 28/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 272352
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...MELISSA EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING
WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA LATER TONIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 78.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...909 MB...26.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Las Tunas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete in Jamaica and rushed to completion
in Cuba.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located
near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 78.6 West. Melissa is moving
slowly toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow turn toward
the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northeast at a slightly faster forward speed on Tuesday. A
northeastward motion with a faster forward speed is expected on
Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa
is expected to move near or over Jamaica by early Tuesday, across
southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern or
central Bahamas on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica. However, Melissa is
expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely
powerful major hurricane, and will still be at hurricane strength
when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is
909 mb (26.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in Jamaica, and
catastrophic and life-threatening hurricane-force wind conditions
are expected to begin late tonight and continue into Tuesday.
Within the eyewall, total structural failure is likely, especially
in higher elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on the
windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent
stronger.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba on
Tuesday, with hurricane conditions expected to begin in the
hurricane warning area starting Tuesday evening into Wednesday
morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti late
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central
Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the
Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday with hurricane conditions
also possible on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 6 to 12 inches for
southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima
of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with
local amounts to 25 inches, is expected by Monday into Wednesday
resulting in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash
flooding with numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is
expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the
south coast of Jamaica late tonight and on Tuesday. Peak storm
surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and
to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This
storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. On
the northwest coast of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the
possibility of 1 to 3 feet of storm surge above ground level.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Storm surge of 4 to 6 ft above normally dry ground is possible in
the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days, and the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and Bermuda later this week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 272042
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...CATEGORY 5 MELISSA NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED FOR THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM
SURGE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 78.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB...26.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane
Warning for the Southeastern and Central Bahamas.

The Meteorological Service of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Las Tunas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete in Jamaica and rushed to completion
in Cuba.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located
near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 78.4 West. Melissa is now
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow turn toward
the north is expected this evening, followed by a turn toward the
northeast and a slightly faster forward speed on Tuesday. A
northeastward motion with a faster forward speed is expected on
Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa
is expected to move near or over Jamaica late tonight and Tuesday,
across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern
or central Bahamas on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica. However, Melissa is
expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely
powerful major hurricane, and will still be at hurricane strength
when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km). NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are
scheduled to investigate Melissa in a few hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 906 mb (26.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in Jamaica, and
catastrophic and life-threatening hurricane-force wind conditions
are expected to begin tonight and continue into Tuesday. Within the
eyewall, total structural failure is likely, especially in higher
elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of
hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba on
Tuesday, with hurricane conditions expected to begin in the
hurricane warning area by Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Haiti late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central
Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the
Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 6 to 12 inches for
southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima
of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with
local amounts to 25 inches, is expected by Monday into Wednesday
resulting in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash
flooding with numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is
expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the
south coast of Jamaica tonight and on Tuesday. Peak storm surge
heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. On the northwest
coast of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the possibility of 1 to
3 feet of storm surge above ground level.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Storm surge of 4 to 6 ft above normally dry ground is possible in
the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days, and the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and Bermuda later this week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 272042
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

A few hours ago, data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft showed that the central pressure in Melissa had fallen to
near 906 mb. The aircraft measured maximum 700-mb flight-level
winds of 161 kt, which supports surface winds of near 145 kt. In
addition, low-level winds measured by a dropwindsonde in the
northeastern eyewall support surface winds of 155 kt. During the
time since the aircraft departed the hurricane, there has been
little change in organization and no obvious signs that Melissa has
weakened. Thus, the initial intensity is set at 150 kt as a blend
of the surface wind estimates mentioned above. NOAA and Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will again investigate Melissa
during the next few hours.

Melissa is starting its northward turn, and the initial motion is
now northwestward or 315/3 kt. The mid-level ridge north of Melissa
continues to weaken as a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moves
eastward through the southeastern United States into the
southwestern Atlantic. This should cause the hurricane to turn
northward during the next 6-12 h or so at a continued slow forward
speed. After 18 h or so, Melissa should turn northeastward with
a slight increase in forward speed as the mid-latitude westerly
flow becomes the dominant steering mechanism. A continued
northeastward motion with a significant increase in forward speed
is expected from 36 h through the end of the forecast period. On
the forecast track, the center of Melissa will be near or over
Jamaica late tonight and on Tuesday, cross eastern Cuba Tuesday
night or early Wednesday, and then move near or over the Bahamas
and the Turks and Caicos on Wednesday. After that, the cyclone
could reach the vicinity of Bermuda on Thursday night. The track
guidance envelope has nudged a little to the west and north since
the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is also a little
to the west and north of the previous track.

Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12-24 h
due to the possibility that Melissa will start an eyewall
replacement cycle (ERC). However, the previous aircraft data showed
no evidence that an ERC had started, and it is possible that the
upcoming aircraft may find Melissa is stronger than 150 kt.
Regardless, even with an ERC it is unlikely that Melissa will
weaken significantly before reaching Jamaica, and there is no
practical difference in Melissa making landfall at category 4 or 5
intensity, since both categories produce catastrophic wind damage.
After reaching Jamaica, a combination of land interaction and
increasing southwesterly shear should cause weakening, although
Melissa is still forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches
Cuba. Once over the Atlantic, stronger shear should cause more
substantial weakening, and Melissa is expected to become
extratropical by the end of the forecast period as it interacts
with a large baroclinic low over the north Atlantic. The new
intensity forecast has minor adjustments from the previous and
again follows the trend of the intensity consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Remain in your safe shelter and do not venture
outside. Catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides are expected through Tuesday. The eyewall’s destructive
winds may cause total structural failure, particularly in higher
elevations, leading to widespread infrastructural damage, prolonged
power and communication outages, and isolated communities. Along the
southern coast, life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are
anticipated through Tuesday.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across
southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic
through midweek. In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and
isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are
expected late Tuesday and Wednesday.

3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall with life-threatening and
potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides is expected
to begin tonight. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds
are expected late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Preparations should
be rushed to completion.

4. Southeast and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane
conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of the southeast and central Bahamas on
Wednesday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials
and be sure to have preparations complete by Tuesday night.
Tropical storm conditions, heavy rains, and a significant storm
surge is expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 16.7N 78.4W 150 KT 175 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 17.1N 78.3W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 18.2N 77.8W 125 KT 145 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/0600Z 19.8N 76.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 29/1800Z 21.8N 75.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 24.3N 72.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 27.8N 69.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 37.1N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 44.7N 45.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 272041
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
2100 UTC MON OCT 27 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 78.4W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 906 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT.......170NE 130SE 50SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 78.4W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 78.3W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.1N 78.3W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.2N 77.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.8N 76.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.8N 75.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.3N 72.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 170SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 27.8N 69.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 170SE 130SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 37.1N 60.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 170SE 150SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 44.7N 45.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 100SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 190SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 78.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 28/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 271733
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...CATEGORY 5 MELISSA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM
SURGE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 78.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB...26.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern and central Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete in Jamaica and rushed to completion
in Cuba.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Warning may be required for portions of the Bahamas and
the Turks and Caicos islands later today or tonight. Interests in
Bermuda should also monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 78.3 West. Melissa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow turn
toward the northwest and north is expected later today, followed by
a turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed on Tuesday.
A northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On
the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move over
Jamaica tonight and early Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday
night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.

Reports from an Air force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 175 mph
(280 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in
intensity are likely before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica on
Tuesday. However, Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and
southeastern Cuba as an extremely powerful major hurricane, and will
still be at hurricane strength when it moves across the southeastern
Bahamas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the latest Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 906 mb (26.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in Jamaica, and
catastrophic and life-threatening hurricane-force wind conditions
are expected to begin tonight and continue into early Tuesday.
Within the eyewall, total structural failure is likely, especially
in higher elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward
sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba on
Tuesday, with hurricane conditions expected to begin in the
hurricane warning area by Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Haiti late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are possible in the
southeastern and central Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos
Islands, on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 8 to 16 inches for
southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima
of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 15 to 20 inches, with
local higher amounts, is expected by Monday into Wednesday resulting
in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with
numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is
expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the
south coast of Jamaica tonight and on Tuesday. Peak storm surge
heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. On the northwest
coast of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the possibility of 1 to
3 feet of storm surge above ground level.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Storm surge of 4 to 6 ft above normally dry ground is possible in
the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days, and the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and Bermuda later this week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 271448
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Melissa has the classic strong hurricane appearance in satellite
imagery this morning, with a well-defined 10-nm wide eye embedded
in a central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -80C. The
hurricane also has a large complex of outer banding over the
eastern semicircle and a circulation that covers most of the
Caribbean west of 70 degrees west longitude. Reports from NOAA and
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the central
pressure has fallen to near 908 mb, with both aircraft releasing
dropsondes in the northeastern eyewall that support an initial
intensity of 145 kt. The NOAA aircraft left the storm early after
experiencing severe turbulence in the southwestern eyewall.

The eye is wobbling around due to the slow motion, but the best
estimate of the initial motion is 270/3 kt. The mid-level ridge
north of Melissa is weakening as a deep-layer mid-latitude trough
moves eastward through the southeastern United States. This should
cause the hurricane to turn northward during the next 12 h or so at
a continued slow forward speed. After 24 h, Melissa should turn
northeastward with some increase in forward speed as the
mid-latitude westerly flow becomes the dominant steering
mechanism. This general motion should continue for the rest of the
forecast period. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa will
be near or over Jamaica late tonight or early Tuesday, cross
eastern Cuba Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and then move near
or over the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos on Wednesday. After
that, the cyclone could reach the vicinity of Bermuda on Thursday
night. The new forecast track has some minor adjustments from the
previous track and is a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus, the
Google DeepMind ensemble mean, and the other consensus models.

Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12-24 h
due to the possibility that Melissa will start an eyewall
replacement cycle. However, this is unlikely to weaken Melissa
significantly, and there is no practical difference in Melissa
making landfall in Jamaica at category 4 or 5 intensity, since both
categories produce catastrophic wind damage. After reaching Jamaica,
a combination of land interaction and increasing southwesterly shear
should cause some weakening, although Melissa is still forecast to
be a major hurricane when it reaches Cuba. Once over the Atlantic,
stronger shear should cause more substantial weakening, and Melissa
is expected to become extratropical by the end of the forecast
period. The new intensity forecast has minor adjustments from the
previous and follows the trend of the intensity consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Do not venture out of your safe shelter. Catastrophic
and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are
likely today through Tuesday. Catastrophic winds in the eyewall have
the potential to cause total structural failure especially in higher
elevation areas tonight and early Tuesday. This will result in
extensive infrastructural damage, long-lasting power and
communication outages, and isolated communities. Life-threatening
storm surge and damaging waves are expected along the southern coast
through Tuesday.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across
southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic
through midweek. In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and
isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are
expected late Tuesday and Wednesday.

3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall with life-threatening and
potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides is expected
beginning today. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are
expected late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Preparations should be
rushed to completion.

4. Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions,
life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are possible on
Wednesday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials
and be sure to have preparations complete by Tuesday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 16.4N 78.2W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 16.9N 78.3W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 17.8N 77.9W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 19.1N 76.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 20.8N 75.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 23.0N 73.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 25.9N 71.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 34.3N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 42.8N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 271447
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...CATEGORY 5 MELISSA EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM
SURGE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 78.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...908 MB...26.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern and central Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete in Jamaica and rushed to completion
in Cuba.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Warning may be required for portions of the Bahamas and
the Turks and Caicos islands later today or tonight. Interests in
Bermuda should also monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 78.2 West. Melissa is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow turn toward the
northwest and north is expected later today, followed by a turn
toward the northeast and a faster forward speed on Tuesday. A
northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On the
forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move over Jamaica
tonight and early Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night,
and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica on Tuesday. However,
Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an
extremely powerful major hurricane, and will still be at hurricane
strength when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the latest Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 908 mb (26.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in Jamaica, and
catastrophic and life-threatening hurricane-force wind conditions
are expected to begin tonight and continue into early Tuesday.
Within the eyewall, total structural failure is likely, especially
in higher elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward
sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba on
Tuesday, with hurricane conditions expected to begin in the
hurricane warning area by Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Haiti late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are possible in the
southeastern and central Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos
Islands, on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 8 to 16 inches for
southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima
of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 15 to 20 inches, with
local higher amounts, is expected by Monday into Wednesday resulting
in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with
numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is
expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the
south coast of Jamaica tonight and on Tuesday. Peak storm surge
heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Storm surge of 4 to 6 ft above normally dry ground is possible in
the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days, and the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and Bermuda later this week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 271446
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1500 UTC MON OCT 27 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 78.2W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 908 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT.......170NE 130SE 50SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 78.2W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 78.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.9N 78.3W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.8N 77.9W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.1N 76.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.8N 75.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.0N 73.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 170SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 25.9N 71.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 170SE 130SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 34.3N 63.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 170SE 150SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 42.8N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 100SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 190SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 78.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 271147
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING
CATEGORY 5 MELISSA...
...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING WILL
WORSEN ON JAMAICA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 78.0W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...913 MB...26.96 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern and central Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete in Jamaica and rushed to completion
in Cuba.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 78.0 West. Melissa is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow turn toward the
northwest and north is expected today and tonight, followed by a
northeastward acceleration beginning on Tuesday and continuing
through at least Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of
Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica tonight and
Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the
southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h)
with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is forecast today, with fluctuations in intensity likely before
Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica early Tuesday. Melissa is
expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as a powerful major
hurricane, and will still be at hurricane strength when it moves
across the southeastern Bahamas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The minimum central pressure from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft
data is 913 mb (26.96 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in Jamaica, and
destructive hurricane conditions are expected to begin tonight or
early Tuesday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills
and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger than the
near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated
locations could be even greater.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba on
Tuesday, with hurricane conditions expected to begin in the
hurricane warning area by Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Haiti late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are possible in the
southeastern and central Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos
Islands, on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 8 to 16 inches for
southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima
of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with
local amounts to 20 inches, is expected today through Wednesday
resulting in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash
flooding with numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is
expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the
south coast of Jamaica tonight and on Tuesday. Peak storm surge
heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Storm surge is possible in the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and
Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days, and the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and Bermuda later this week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 270851
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

An ongoing Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been
measuring progressively higher winds and lower central pressures
during each of its passes through Melissa's eye. On the third and
final pass, the crew measured a peak flight-level wind of 154 kt and
a central pressure of 917 mb. This flight-level wind reduces to
about 140 kt, making Melissa a category 5 hurricane. The
hurricane's eye is 10 n mi wide with a temperature of 20 degrees
Celsius, while the surrounding convection has cloud top temperatures
as cold as -86 degrees Celsius.

Melissa appears to be gaining some latitude again, but the 12-hour
average motion is westward (275 degrees) at 3 kt. A painstakingly
slow turn toward the northwest and north is expected during the
next 24 hours, and Melissa is forecast to make landfall on the
south coast of Jamaica Tuesday morning and emerge off the north
coast by Tuesday afternoon. A trough moving across the
southeastern United States is then expected to cause Melissa to
turn northeastward and accelerate, crossing southeastern Cuba and
the southeastern Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday, and then
reaching the vicinity of Bermuda Thursday night. The part of the
forecast track while Melissa is over the western Atlantic has been
adjusted a bit westward, following the latest Google DeepMind and
European model solutions.

Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24
hours while Melissa is south of Jamaica over waters of high oceanic
heat content and in an environment of relatively low wind shear.
Fluctuations in intensity are also possible during this period due
to internal dynamics related to eyewall replacements, which are
generally difficult to forecast. There's really no practical
difference in Melissa making landfall in Jamaica at category 4 or 5
intensity, since both categories can produce catastrophic wind
damage. In addition, winds in the mountains of Jamaica are likely
to be higher than the winds at sea level, and are likely to add to
the seriousness of the situation. Although interaction with
Jamaica will lead to some weakening, Melissa is expected to reach
southeastern Cuba as a major hurricane, and will also move across
the southeastern Bahamas and be near Bermuda as a hurricane. Some
of the guidance shows a flatlining of the intensity while Melissa
is moving over the southwestern Atlantic, and the NHC forecast has
been bumped up during that time accordingly.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Do not venture out of your safe shelter. Catastrophic
and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are
likely today through Tuesday. Destructive winds, especially in the
mountains, will begin by this evening, leading to extensive
infrastructural damage, long-lasting power and communication
outages, and isolated communities. Life-threatening storm surge and
damaging waves are expected along the southern coast through
Tuesday.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across
southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic
through midweek. In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and
isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are
expected late Tuesday and Wednesday.

3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall with life-threatening and
potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides is expected
beginning today. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are
expected late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Preparations should be
rushed to completion.

4. Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions,
life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are possible on
Wednesday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials
and be sure to have preparations complete by Tuesday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 16.4N 77.8W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 16.6N 78.1W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 17.3N 78.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 18.5N 77.3W 115 KT 130 MPH...NORTH COAST OF JAMAICA
48H 29/0600Z 20.1N 76.0W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER SE CUBA
60H 29/1800Z 22.1N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR SE BAHAMAS
72H 30/0600Z 24.7N 72.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 32.3N 65.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR BERMUDA
120H 01/0600Z 41.4N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 270850
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...MELISSA NOW A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING WILL
WORSEN ON JAMAICA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 77.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
central and southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern and central Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete in Jamaica and rushed to completion
in Cuba.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 77.8 West. Melissa is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow turn toward the
northwest and north is expected today and tonight, followed by a
northeastward acceleration beginning on Tuesday and continuing
through at least Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of
Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica tonight and
Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the
southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260
km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is forecast today, with fluctuations in intensity likely before
Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica early Tuesday. Melissa is
expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as a powerful major
hurricane, and will still be at hurricane strength when it moves
across the southeastern Bahamas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 917 mb
(27.08 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in Jamaica, and
destructive hurricane conditions are expected to begin tonight or
early Tuesday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills
and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger than the
near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated
locations could be even greater.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba on
Tuesday, with hurricane conditions expected to begin in the
hurricane warning area by Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Haiti late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are possible in the
southeastern and central Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos
Islands, on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 8 to 16 inches for
southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima
of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with
local amounts to 20 inches, is expected today through Wednesday
resulting in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash
flooding with numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is
expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the
south coast of Jamaica tonight and on Tuesday. Peak storm surge
heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Storm surge is possible in the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and
Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days, and the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and Bermuda later this week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 270849
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0900 UTC MON OCT 27 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 77.8W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 917 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT.......170NE 130SE 50SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 165SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 77.8W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 77.7W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.6N 78.1W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.3N 78.1W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.5N 77.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.1N 76.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.1N 74.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 170SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.7N 72.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 170SE 130SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 32.3N 65.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 170SE 150SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 41.4N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 100SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 190SE 190SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 77.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 270557
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND DESTRUCTIVE STORM SURGE EXPECTED ON
JAMAICA BY TONIGHT...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA ALSO EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 77.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB...27.34 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete in Jamaica and rushed to completion
in Cuba.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in the southeastern and central Bahamas, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa.
Additional watches and warnings are likely today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 77.7 West. Melissa is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the north and
northeast is expected today and on Tuesday. On the forecast track,
the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica
tonight and Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and
across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.

Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is
a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Additional intensification is forecast today, followed by
fluctuations in intensity before Melissa reaches Jamaica. Melissa
is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when making landfall
in Jamaica and southeastern Cuba.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 926 mb (27.34 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in Jamaica, and
hurricane conditions are expected to begin tonight. Wind speeds atop
and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30
percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this
advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba by
Tuesday afternoon, with hurricane conditions expected to begin in
the hurricane warning area by Tuesday evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Haiti late Tuesday and Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 8 to 16 inches for
southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima
of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with
local amounts to 20 inches, is expected today into Wednesday
resulting in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash
flooding with numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is
expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the
south coast of Jamaica late today through Tuesday morning. Peak
storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level,
near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall.
This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days, and the Bahamas and Bermuda later this week.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 270402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 27.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM SONIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 119.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.10.2025 0 13.9N 119.7W 1003 31
1200UTC 27.10.2025 12 14.2N 120.7W 1003 30
0000UTC 28.10.2025 24 14.4N 121.6W 1003 28
1200UTC 28.10.2025 36 14.3N 122.8W 1005 27
0000UTC 29.10.2025 48 14.3N 124.3W 1007 24
1200UTC 29.10.2025 60 14.0N 126.3W 1010 25
0000UTC 30.10.2025 72 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 77.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.10.2025 0 16.4N 77.3W 975 66
1200UTC 27.10.2025 12 16.3N 77.6W 983 48
0000UTC 28.10.2025 24 16.9N 77.8W 984 52
1200UTC 28.10.2025 36 18.0N 77.4W 990 46
0000UTC 29.10.2025 48 19.5N 75.9W 988 51
1200UTC 29.10.2025 60 21.7N 73.8W 988 52
0000UTC 30.10.2025 72 24.4N 72.0W 982 52
1200UTC 30.10.2025 84 27.2N 70.0W 974 65
0000UTC 31.10.2025 96 30.3N 66.9W 972 65
1200UTC 31.10.2025 108 34.0N 62.1W 969 69
0000UTC 01.11.2025 120 38.0N 56.4W 969 68
1200UTC 01.11.2025 132 41.4N 49.9W 967 66
0000UTC 02.11.2025 144 43.9N 40.3W 979 53
1200UTC 02.11.2025 156 46.4N 29.5W 987 49
0000UTC 03.11.2025 168 48.6N 19.4W 988 43

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 32.3N 77.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.10.2025 48 32.3N 77.6W 1005 38
1200UTC 29.10.2025 60 33.3N 76.2W 1005 33
0000UTC 30.10.2025 72 34.9N 76.1W 1005 33
1200UTC 30.10.2025 84 38.7N 80.5W 998 35
0000UTC 31.10.2025 96 42.7N 79.5W 991 36
1200UTC 31.10.2025 108 45.4N 77.1W 988 36
0000UTC 01.11.2025 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 28.2N 25.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.11.2025 144 28.4N 25.6W 1012 30
1200UTC 02.11.2025 156 27.9N 26.2W 1013 30
0000UTC 03.11.2025 168 28.1N 25.9W 1014 28

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 35.7N 65.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.11.2025 168 35.7N 65.2W 1008 36


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 270402


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 270402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM SONIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 119.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.10.2025 13.9N 119.7W WEAK
12UTC 27.10.2025 14.2N 120.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.10.2025 14.4N 121.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2025 14.3N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2025 14.3N 124.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2025 14.0N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 77.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.10.2025 16.4N 77.3W STRONG
12UTC 27.10.2025 16.3N 77.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.10.2025 16.9N 77.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2025 18.0N 77.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.10.2025 19.5N 75.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2025 21.7N 73.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2025 24.4N 72.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.10.2025 27.2N 70.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.10.2025 30.3N 66.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.10.2025 34.0N 62.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.11.2025 38.0N 56.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.11.2025 41.4N 49.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.11.2025 43.9N 40.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.11.2025 46.4N 29.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.11.2025 48.6N 19.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 32.3N 77.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.10.2025 32.3N 77.6W WEAK
12UTC 29.10.2025 33.3N 76.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2025 34.9N 76.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.10.2025 38.7N 80.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.10.2025 42.7N 79.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.10.2025 45.4N 77.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.11.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 28.2N 25.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.11.2025 28.4N 25.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 02.11.2025 27.9N 26.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.11.2025 28.1N 25.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 35.7N 65.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.11.2025 35.7N 65.2W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 270402


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 270245
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Melissa remains a very intense hurricane with a well-defined eye
surrounded by extremely cold cloud tops, significantly colder than
-80 deg C. The cloud pattern is quite symmetrical on satellite
imagery with strong upper-level outflow, especially over the
northern semicircle. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been
investigating the system this evening and found that the central
pressure had fallen to near 933 mb, and peak flight-level winds
support an intensity of 125 kt. It should be noted that
satellite-based estimates, including subjective Dvorak analyses of
T7.0, suggest a higher intensity than found by the aircraft thus
far.

Although the eye wobbled a bit to the south recently, this is
believed to be temporary and a more representative initial motion
estimate is about 270/4 kt. The track forecast reasoning is
essentially unchanged from the previous advisory. The mid-level
ridge that had been steering Melissa westward is expected to weaken
by tomorrow. This should allow the hurricane to turn to the north
and north-northeast during the next day or so. Then, a developing
mid-level trough near the southeast U.S. coast is expected to
cause Melissa to move northeastward with increasing forward
speed. The official track forecast is very similar to the
previous one and lies between the HFIP corrected consensus and
Google DeepMind ensemble mean predictions.

Since the hurricane is expected to remain in a relatively low
vertical wind shear environment during the next day or two, it is
expected to strengthen some more until it interacts with the land
masses of Jamaica and eastern Cuba. The global models show stronger
vertical shear north of Cuba so the system should gradually weaken
later in the period. The official intensity forecast remains on
the high side of the model guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Seek shelter now. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall
tonight and Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
flash flooding and numerous landslides before potentially
devastating winds arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and
communication outages, and isolation of communities are expected.
Life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected along
portions of the southern coast Monday night and Tuesday morning.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across
southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic
through midweek. In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and
isolation of communities are likely. Although winds have temporarily
decreased on the Tiburon peninsula, they are likely to increase
again across much of western Haiti on Tuesday.

3. Eastern Cuba: Life-threatening storm surge is expected along
portions of the southern coast of eastern Cuba late Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall with
life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
landslides are also expected beginning on Monday. Preparations
should be rushed to completion.

4. Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa
closely. There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge,
damaging winds, and heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. Watches
will likely be required early Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 16.3N 77.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 16.5N 78.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 17.1N 78.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 18.0N 77.8W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 19.4N 76.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 21.1N 75.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 23.4N 73.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 30.1N 67.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 38.1N 56.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 270243
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...MELISSA LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH
FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN
HISPANIOLA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE TOMORROW IN
JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 77.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Haiti north of
Port-Au-Prince to the border with the Dominican Republic on the
north coast. The Hurricane Watch for the southwestern peninsula of
Haiti has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the southeastern and
central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda
should monitor the progress of Melissa. Additional watches and
warnings could be required later tonight or tomorrow.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 77.5 West. Melissa is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow westward motion
is expected overnight, followed by a turn to the north and northeast
on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa
is expected to move near or over Jamaica on Tuesday, across
southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern
Bahamas on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional intensification is forecast over
the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in intensity. Melissa
is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when making landfall
in Jamaica.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb (27.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in Jamaica, with
hurricane conditions expected to begin by late tomorrow. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin in Eastern Cuba by Tuesday
afternoon, with Hurricane conditions expected to begin in the
hurricane warning area by Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditions
are ongoing in the warning area in Haiti. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Haiti on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 8 to 16 inches for
southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima
of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with
local amounts to 20 inches, is expected by Monday into Wednesday
resulting in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash
flooding with numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is
expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the
south coast of Jamaica late Monday through Tuesday morning. Peak
storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level,
near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall.
This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days, and In the Bahamas and Bermuda later this week.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 270241
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0300 UTC MON OCT 27 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 77.5W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT.......170NE 120SE 50SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 77.5W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 77.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 120SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.1N 78.2W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.0N 77.8W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.4N 76.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 65NE 65SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.1N 75.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 170SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.4N 73.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 45SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 75NE 80SE 55SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 170SE 130SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 30.1N 67.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 95SE 65SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 140SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 38.1N 56.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE 80SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 200SE 190SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 77.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 262357
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKELY TO BEGIN TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 77.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban province of Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the
southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa. Additional
watches and warnings could be required later tonight or tomorrow.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located
near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 77.3 West. Melissa is moving
toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow westward motion
is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the north and northeast
on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa
is expected to move near or over Jamaica on Tuesday, across
southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern
Bahamas on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional intensification is forecast over
the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in intensity. Melissa
is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when making landfall
in Jamaica.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 933 mb (27.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in Jamaica, with
hurricane conditions expected to begin by Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin in Eastern Cuba by Tuesday
afternoon, with Hurricane conditions expected to begin in the
hurricane warning area by Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditions
are ongoing in the warning area in Haiti. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Haiti.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 8 to 16 inches for
southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with local storm total maxima
of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with
local amounts to 20 inches, is expected by Monday into Wednesday
resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is
expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south
coast of Jamaica late Monday through Tuesday morning. Peak storm
surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and
to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This
storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days, and In the Bahamas and Bermuda later this week.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 262100
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

After an earlier pause in intensification, this afternoon's Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance mission has found Melissa intensifying
again. The minimum pressure has fallen 12 mb from this morning
NOAA-P3 mission, with the last dropsonde indicating a minimum
pressure of 941 mb, and the plane reported a shrinking eyewall down
to 6 n mi in diameter. In addition to the low pressure, the
satellite presentation of Melissa remains very impressive, with
1-minute visible satellite images from a GOES-19 meso-sector showing
a very clear eye with a stadium effect. The eye temperature on water
vapor imagery has continued to warm, while the thick ring of eyewall
cloud tops remains between -75 to -80 C around the eye. The
presentation of Melissa on radar reflectivity from Kingston, Jamaica
has also improved, though there still appear to be hints of a moat
forming around the inner eyewall, though without an obvious
secondary eyewall formation yet. Subjective Dvorak CI-numbers from
both SAB and TAFB were T7.0/140 kt, with objective satellite
estimates between 132-143 kt. However, Melissa's peak winds from the
last couple of recon missions have been lagging the satellite-based
estimates. The last fix had peak 700 mb flight level winds of only
129 kt, but a dropsonde launched in the north eyewall also reported
a 500 m layer average of 142 kt, with an earlier dropsonde in the NE
eyewall with a surface wind gust of 131 kt. This data is enough to
raise the maximum sustained winds of 125 kt, and given the satellite
presentation, this could be conservative.

Melissa continues to move slowly westward, estimated at 270/4 kt.
The hurricane has been moving a little faster to the west today, and
this motion will likely continue for another 12-18 hours while the
narrow mid-level ridge to the north remains in place. Soon, a
short-wave trough will be moving into the SE United States, and this
feature should create a weakness that Melissa will turn
sharply northeast into, as it gradually accelerates. The track
guidance has shifted a little westward again this cycle, and the NHC
track forecast was nudged a little west again, but still shows
landfall on Tuesday morning along the south coast of Jamaica. There
remain some timing differences thereafter, but a second landfall is
anticipated along the southeastern Cuba coast by Tuesday night or
early Wednesday morning. As Melissa then accelerates into the
southwestern Atlantic, it will move through the Bahamas and
potentially approach Bermuda by the day 4-5 time frame, with a
reinforcing trough helping to kick it farther out to sea. The latest
NHC track forecast is a little west in the first 24-60 h, but falls
back near the previous forecast track thereafter. The track is
roughly a blend of the reliable HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach
(HCCA) and Google Deep Mind ensemble mean (GDMI).

Now that Melissa is intensifying again, it seems more clear that the
earlier pause in intensification was a temporary oscillation, and
the hurricane now appears poised to intensify more in the
short-term. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows a little more
intensification in 12 h, but continues to show a peak intensity of
140 kt, which is supported by HAFS-B which shows landfall of Melissa
as a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. The Google DeepMind ensemble
members also continue to indicate this peak, with now 48/50 members
reaching this lofty intensity. However, inner-core processes like
ERCs could occur at any time, and the current small eye of Melissa
likely suggests an ERC could begin in the next 24 hours or so,
though it is very difficult to predict these occurrences with much
skill. After landfall in Jamaica, Melissa will likely weaken some
due to the interaction with that Island's high terrain, but it is
still expected to be a major hurricane when crossing the Cuba
coastline on Tuesday night. After emerging into the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean, increasing vertical wind shear should continue
gradual weakening through the end of the forecast, with the
possibility that Melissa could start extratropical transition by day
5. The NHC intensity forecast continues to be on the high side of
the guidance, but falls closer to the HCCA and IVCN aids towards the
end of the forecast period.

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Seek shelter now. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall
tonight and Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
flash flooding and numerous landslides before potentially
devastating winds arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and
communication outages, and isolation of communities are expected.
Life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected along
portions of the southern coast Monday night and Tuesday morning.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across
southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic
through midweek. In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and
isolation of communities is likely. Although winds have temporarily
decreased on the Tiburon peninsula, they are likely to increase
again across much of western Haiti on Tuesday.

3. Eastern Cuba: Life-threatening storm surge is expected along
portions of the southern coast of eastern Cuba late Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall with
life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
landslides are also expected beginning on Monday. Preparations
should be rushed to completion.

4. Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa
closely. There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge,
damaging winds, and heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. Watches
will likely be required early Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 16.4N 77.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 16.4N 77.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 16.6N 78.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 17.2N 78.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 18.4N 77.5W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND OVER JAMAICA
60H 29/0600Z 20.0N 76.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...ON THE SE CUBA COAST
72H 29/1800Z 22.1N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 30/1800Z 28.0N 69.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 31/1800Z 37.0N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 262055
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...HURRICANE MELISSA RESUMES INTENSIFYING...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKELY TO BEGIN TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 77.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Cuban
provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin. The
government of Cuba has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Cuban province of Las Tunas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban province of Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the
southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa. Additional
watches and warnings could be required later tonight or tomorrow.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was
located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude
16.4 North, longitude 77.2 West. Melissa is moving toward the west
near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected tonight,
followed by a turn to the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near
or over Jamaica on Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night,
and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional intensification is
forecast over the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in
intensity. Melissa is expected to be a powerful major hurricane
when making landfall in Jamaica Monday night or Tuesday morning and
southeastern Cuba late Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is
941 mb (27.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in Jamaica, with
hurricane conditions expected to begin by Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin in Eastern Cuba by Tuesday
afternoon, with Hurricane conditions expected to begin in the
hurricane warning area by Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditions
are ongoing in the warning area in Haiti. The potential for
hurricane conditions in the watch area in Haiti have diminished for
today, but there is still a possibility of hurricane conditions
occurring there on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 8 to 16 inches for
southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with local storm total maxima
of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with
local amounts to 20 inches, is expected by Monday into Wednesday
resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is
expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south
coast of Jamaica late Monday through Tuesday morning. Peak storm
surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and
to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This
storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days, and In the Bahamas and Bermuda later this week.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 262054
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
2100 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 77.2W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 50SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 77.2W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 76.9W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.4N 77.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 120SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.6N 78.2W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.2N 78.2W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.4N 77.5W...INLAND OVER JAMAICA
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 65NE 65SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.0N 76.1W...ON THE SE CUBA COAST
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 45SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 170SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.1N 74.4W...OVER WATER IN THE SE BAHAMAS
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 45SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 75NE 80SE 55SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 170SE 100SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 28.0N 69.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 95SE 65SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 140SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 37.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE 80SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 200SE 190SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 77.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 261736
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING MAJOR
HURRICANE MELISSA...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 76.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the
southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa. Additional
watches and warnings could be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located
by Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 16.4
North, longitude 76.9 West. Melissa is moving toward the west near 5
mph (7 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected today, followed by
a turn to the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over
Jamaica on Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and
across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional intensification is forecast over
the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in intensity. Melissa
is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when making landfall in
Jamaica Monday night or Tuesday morning and southeastern Cuba late
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is
946 mb (27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in Jamaica, with
hurricane conditions expected to begin by Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area in Haiti today. The
potential for hurricane conditions in the watch area in Haiti have
diminished for today, but there is still a possibility of hurricane
conditions occurring there on Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the watch area in eastern Cuba on Tuesday into
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 15 to
30 inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through
Wednesday, with local maxima of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic
flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with local
amounts to 20 inches, is expected by Tuesday into Wednesday
resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is
expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash
flooding. Over the Turks and Caicos, total rainfall of 1 to 4
inches is expected Tuesday into Wednesday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south
coast of Jamaica late Monday through Tuesday morning. Peak
storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level,
near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall.
This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the
southeast coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 261459
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

After rapidly intensifying over the past day or so, NOAA-P3 aircraft
data indicates that Melissa's intensity has leveled off this
morning. Melissa remains a very formidable hurricane on satellite
imagery, with a clearing eye quite evident on morning visible
imagery, and the eye temperature has warmed to +15-20C. Meanwhile
the eyewall convection continues to remain robust with cloud tops as
low as -75 to -80C encircling the core. With that said, the eye
presentation from the Kingston, Jamaica radar is not as pristine,
with the eyewall occasionally open on the east side, and some
evidence of concentric bands forming off and on. Zooming out a bit,
there still remains some evidence of light to moderate westerly
shear undercutting the expanding storm outflow, and Melissa’s
primarily rainbands are distributed mostly on the eastern side of
the circulation. NOAA-P3 aircraft data this morning had a peak 700-
mb flight level wind of 120 kt, and Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) wind
retrievals were up to 129 kt at 0.5 km, and 129 kt in the 500 m
average of a dropsonde launched in the north eyewall. While this
data would support a somewhat lower intensity, the subjective and
objective satellite based intensity estimates are mostly higher,
ranging from 115 to 140 kt. The initial intensity will be held at
120 kt, on the lower end of those estimates, and this value could be
a little generous based on the aircraft data.

The major hurricane is moving westward this morning, from aircraft
fixes estimated at 270/3 kt. This motion is expected to continue for
the next 24-36 h as a narrow mid-level ridge to the north of Melissa
imparts the majority of the steering. Thereafter, a short-wave
trough moving into the southeastern United States is expected to
erode this ridge, allowing Melissa to turn sharply to the northeast,
with gradual acceleration. On the forecast track, Melissa's core
is expected to be near the Jamaica coastline by Tuesday morning,
moving across the island and then approaching and moving over
eastern Cuba by Tuesday night. While the track guidance has become
tightly clustered over the first 24-48 hours, the along-track spread
starts to increase significantly after that time period, with Google
DeepMind ensemble solutions on Wednesday morning ranging from
between Jamaica and eastern Cuba in the Caribbean Sea, over eastern
Cuba, or in the Southwestern Atlantic near the Southeastern Bahamas
and Turks and Cacaos Islands. The latest NHC track forecast was
nudged just a little westward of the prior track, once again
blending the reliable track aids HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach
(HCCA), and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI).

It is unclear if the current pause in Melissa's intensification is
temporary. While there have not been obvious indications of a
secondary eyewall formation yet, there are some concentric
reflectivity bands appearing on both Jamaica and NOAA-P3 TDR data
occasionally, though the inner eyewall remains strong. Some of the
guidance this morning has actually increased from yesterday at this
time, and notably both the HAFS-A/B explicitly forecast a Category 5
hurricane shortly before they show landfall in Jamaica. The latest
NHC intensity forecast will continue to show a peak intensity of 140
kt. However, inner-core fluctuations like eyewall replacement cycles
could occur at any time. Regardless, Melissa is forecast to reach
Jamaica as an upper-end category 4 hurricane, which will only
exacerbate any damages caused by heavy rainfall and flooding over
the next 2 days. Melissa will likely weaken some as it traverses
over the higher terrain of Jamaica, but it is still forecast to be a
major hurricane when it subsequently moves over eastern Cuba in
60-72 hours. Thereafter, increasing southwesterly shear should
cause gradual weakening, but Melissa could still be near hurricane
intensity when it makes it closest approach to Bermuda in about 5
days. The latest NHC intensity forecast is on the high end of the
intensity guidance, but not far off the GDMI, and HAFS-A/B intensity
aids.

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Seek shelter now. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall
today and Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash
flooding and numerous landslides before potentially devastating
winds arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning. Extensive
infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication
outages, and isolation of communities are expected. Life-threatening
storm surge is likely along portions of the southern coast Monday
night and Tuesday morning.

2. Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti through midweek,
likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of
communities. Although winds are temporarily decreasing on the
Tiburon peninsula, they could increase again across much of western
Haiti on Tuesday.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall through midweek could produce
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
portions of the country.

4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:
Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a
significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall Tuesday
and Wednesday. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides is increasing. A Hurricane Watch is in
effect for portions of eastern Cuba.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 16.4N 76.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 16.4N 77.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 16.6N 77.8W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 16.9N 78.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 17.8N 77.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 19.2N 76.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 20.9N 75.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 25.5N 71.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 32.0N 65.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 261456
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...MAJOR HURRICANE MELISSA CONTINUES SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 76.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the
southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa. Additional
watches and warnings could be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located
by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 16.4 North,
longitude 76.6 West. Melissa is moving toward the west near 3 mph
(6 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected today, followed by a
turn to the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or
over Jamaica on Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday
night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional intensification is forecast over
the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in intensity. Melissa
is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when making landfall in
Jamaica Monday night or Tuesday morning and southeastern Cuba late
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data
is 953 mb (28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in Jamaica, with
hurricane conditions expected to begin by Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area in Haiti today. The
potential for hurricane conditions in the watch area in Haiti have
diminished for today, but there is still a possibility of hurricane
conditions occurring there on Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the watch area in eastern Cuba on Tuesday into
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 15 to
30 inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through
Wednesday, with local maxima of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic
flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with local
amounts to 20 inches, is expected by Tuesday into Wednesday
resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is
expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash
flooding. Over the Turks and Caicos, total rainfall of 1 to 4
inches is expected Tuesday into Wednesday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south
coast of Jamaica late Monday through Tuesday morning. Peak
storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level,
near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall.
This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the
southeast coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 261454
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1500 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 76.6W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 50SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 76.6W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 76.4W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.4N 77.1W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.6N 77.8W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.9N 78.0W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.8N 77.7W...NEAR SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 55SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.2N 76.6W...NORTH OF JAMAICA
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 65NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.9N 75.1W...NEAR ATLANTIC E CUBA COAST
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 65NE 70SE 50SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 25.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 120SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 32.0N 65.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 85SE 65SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 180SE 140SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 76.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 26/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 261136
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS SAMPLING MELISSA...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 76.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the
southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands
should monitor the progress of Melissa. Additional watches and
warnings could be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located
by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 16.3 North,
longitude 76.4 West. Melissa is moving toward the west near 5 mph
(7 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected today, followed by a
turn to the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or
over Jamaica through Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday
night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Further rapid intensification is expected
through tonight, followed by fluctuations in intensity. Melissa is
expected to be a major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica
Monday night or Tuesday morning and southeastern Cuba late Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data
is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in Jamaica,
with hurricane conditions expected by Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area in Haiti today. The
potential for hurricane conditions in the watch area in Haiti
have diminished for today, but there is still a possibility of
hurricane conditions occurring there on Tuesday. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the watch area in eastern Cuba on Tuesday
into Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 30
inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into
Wednesday, with local maxima of 40 inches possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday; uncertainty at that time
range precludes exact storm totals. Catastrophic flash flooding and
landslides are probable across portions of southern Hispaniola and
Jamaica.

For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with local
amounts to 18 inches, are expected into Wednesday resulting in
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday; uncertainty at that time range
precludes exact storm totals.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south
coast of Jamaica late Monday through Tuesday morning. Peak
storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level,
near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall.
This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the
southeast coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 260856
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Melissa is in the midst of a period of extreme rapid
intensification. Its intensity has increased by 50 kt over the
past 24 hours and 35 kt over the past 12 hours. Data from the last
pass of an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft through the
eye just before 1 AM EDT indicated that maximum winds had increased
to 105 kt and the pressure had fallen to 958 mb. The eye has been
clearing out and warming since that time in infrared satellite
imagery, with the Dvorak data-T numbers from both TAFB and SAB up to
T6.0/115 kt at 2 AM EDT. The intensity is estimated to be 120 kt at
the time of this advisory based on the latest AiDT and DPRINT
estimates.

The center had taken a west-southwestward jog over the past 12
hours, but more recent frames of satellite images suggest it is now
moving westward (270 degrees) at 4 kt. There is very little change
in the forecast reasoning or the forecast track itself. Over the
next 48 hours, Melissa is expected to make a slow westward to
north-northeastward recurvature just to the south of Jamaica, likely
reaching the island's southern coast Tuesday morning. An
acceleration toward the northeast is expected after 48 hours when
Melissa is picked up by a trough moving off the southeast coast of
the United States, and this motion should bring the center across
southeastern Cuba late Tuesday or early Wednesday, across the
southeastern Bahamas later on Wednesday, and then reaching the
vicinity of Bermuda on Friday.

It's assumed that the current period of rapid intensification will
continue, and Melissa could reach category 5 intensity by tonight.
An eyewall replacement would be likely to occur at some point over
the next couple of days, which would cause a decrease or at least
fluctuations in Melissa's intensity after 24 hours. Regardless,
Melissa is forecast to reach Jamaica as a category 4 hurricane,
which will only compound any damages caused by heavy rainfall and
flooding over the next 2 days. Melissa is likely to weaken a
little during its passage across Jamaica, but intensity guidance
suggests that it will likely still be a major hurricane when it
reaches southeastern Cuba late Tuesday and the southeastern Bahamas
on Wednesday. Stronger shear should cause the storm to weaken
below major hurricane strength on days 4 and 5 while over the
western Atlantic.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Seek shelter now. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall
today and on Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
flash flooding and numerous landslides before the strongest winds
arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning. Extensive infrastructural
damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and isolation
of communities are expected. Life-threatening storm surge is likely
along portions of the southern coast Monday night and Tuesday
morning.

2. Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti through midweek,
likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and isolation
of communities. Although winds are temporarily decreasing on the
Tiburon peninsula, they could increase again across much of western
Haiti on Tuesday.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall through midweek could produce
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
portions of the country.

4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:
Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a
significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the
middle of the week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides is increasing. A Hurricane Watch is in
effect for portions of eastern Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 16.3N 76.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 16.3N 76.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 16.5N 77.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 16.8N 77.9W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 17.5N 77.7W 135 KT 155 MPH...JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA
60H 28/1800Z 18.7N 76.8W 120 KT 140 MPH...JUST NORTH OF JAMAICA
72H 29/0600Z 20.5N 75.4W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER SE CUBA
96H 30/0600Z 24.8N 71.6W 95 KT 110 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 31/0600Z 30.3N 66.2W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 260855
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0900 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 76.3W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 110SE 50SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 76.3W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 76.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.3N 76.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.8N 77.9W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.5N 77.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.7N 76.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.5N 75.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 40SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 24.8N 71.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 110SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 30.3N 66.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 130SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 76.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 26/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 260855
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...MELISSA NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 76.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the
southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 76.3 West. Melissa is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow westward motion
is expected today, followed by a turn to the north and northeast on
Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is
expected to move near or over Jamaica through Tuesday, across
southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern
Bahamas on Wednesday.

Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have rapidly
increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is
a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Continued rapid intensification is expected through tonight,
followed by fluctuations in intensity. Melissa is expected to be a
major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica Monday night or
Tuesday morning and southeastern Cuba late Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in Jamaica,
with hurricane conditions expected by Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area in Haiti today. The
potential for hurricane conditions in the watch area in Haiti
have diminished for today, but there is still a possibility of
hurricane conditions occurring there on Tuesday. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the watch area in eastern Cuba on Tuesday
into Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 30
inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into
Wednesday, with local maxima of 40 inches possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday; uncertainty at that time
range precludes exact storm totals. Catastrophic flash flooding and
landslides are probable across portions of southern Hispaniola and
Jamaica.

For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with local
amounts to 18 inches, are expected into Wednesday resulting in
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday; uncertainty at that time range
precludes exact storm totals.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south
coast of Jamaica late Monday through Tuesday morning. Peak
storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level,
near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall.
This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the
southeast coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 260533
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...MELISSA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 76.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the
southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 76.1 West. Melissa is
moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow
westward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a turn to
the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or over
Jamaica through Tuesday, and it could be near or over eastern Cuba
by the middle of the week.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued rapid intensification is forecast
during the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in intensity.
Melissa is expected to be a major hurricane when making landfall in
Jamaica Monday night or Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is
958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely beginning in Jamaica,
with hurricane conditions expected by Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area in Haiti today. The
potential for hurricane conditions in the watch area in Haiti
have diminished for today, but there is still a possibility of
hurricane conditions occurring there on Tuesday. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the watch area in eastern Cuba on Tuesday
into Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 30
inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into
Wednesday, with local maxima of 40 inches possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday; uncertainty at that time
range precludes exact storm totals. Catastrophic flash flooding and
landslides are probable across portions of southern Hispaniola and
Jamaica.

For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with local
amounts to 18 inches, are expected into Wednesday resulting in
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday; uncertainty at that time range
precludes exact storm totals.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is becoming more likely
along the south coast of Jamaica during the next few days. Peak
storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level,
near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall.
This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the
southeast coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during
the next several days. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 260252
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Melissa is continuing rapid intensification. The Air
Force aircraft reported flight-level winds of 115 kt in the north
eyewall of the 17 nm wide eye at 700 mb, along with a central
pressure of 967 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
increased to 100 kt, making Melissa a category 3 major hurricane.

The initial motion is now just south of due west or 265/3 kt. A
low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Melissa should steer the
hurricane generally westward at a slow forward speed during the
next 36 h or so. After that time, a deep-layer mid-latitude trough
moving through the southeastern United States will break the ridge,
with Melissa expected to turn northward and then recurve into the
mid-latitude southwesterly flow. The guidance is fairly well
clustered during the first 72 h, with Melissa expected to pass over
Jamaica in 48-60 h and then be near or over eastern Cuba around 72
h. Beyond 72 h, there is some speed and direction spread, but
overall the guidance is in good agreement that Melissa should
accelerate northeastward through portions of the Bahamas into the
Atlantic. The new forecast track is a little to the south and west
of the previous track through 60 h and similar to the previous
track after that time.

Rapid intensification is expected to continue for the next 24-36 h,
and it is possible that during this time Melissa could intensify
even faster than what is currently forecast. The regional hurricane
models show the cyclone peaking before it reaches Jamaica, and
based on this the new forecast keeps a 48-h peak intensity of 140
kt. Afterwards, some inner-core oscillations such as eyewall
replacement cycles could lead to fluctuations in intensity before
Melissa's first landfall in Jamaica. It must be noted that there is
very little practical difference in the overall impacts of a
Category 4 or 5 landfall, and Melissa is expected to be at least
that intensity when it moves over Jamaica. Melissa should weaken
as it interacts with Jamaica and Cuba, although it is still forecast
to be a major hurricane when it nears Cuba. A faster weakening
should occur after passing Cuba when the cyclone encounters strong
shear over the southwestern Atlantic.

This remains a very serious situation, in terms of catastrophic
rainfall, wind, and storm surge hazards for Jamaica, and
preparations should be rushed to completion in the area currently
under a Hurricane Warning.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Seek shelter now. A multi-day period of damaging
winds and heavy rainfall have begun and will cause catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides. Extensive
infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication
outages, and isolation of communities are expected.
Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
southern coast early next week.

2. Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti into early next
week, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and isolation
of communities. Strong winds could last for a day or more over the
Tiburon peninsula.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall through the middle of next
week could produce catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides in southern portions of the country.

4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:
Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a
significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the
middle of next week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides is increasing. A Hurricane Watch is in
effect for portions of eastern Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 16.4N 75.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 16.4N 76.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 16.4N 77.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 16.6N 77.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 17.2N 77.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 18.0N 77.2W 120 KT 140 MPH...INLAND JAMAICA
72H 29/0000Z 19.4N 76.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 30/0000Z 23.0N 72.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 31/0000Z 28.0N 68.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 260251
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT
THAT MELISSA IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 75.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the
southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 75.9 West. Melissa is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward
motion is expected tonight through the end of the weekend. A turn
to the north and northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near
or over Jamaica during the weekend and early next week, and it
could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph
(185 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 3 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Continue rapid
intensification is forecast during the next day or so, followed by
fluctuations in intensity. Melissa is expected to be a major
hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Jamaica
by early Sunday morning, with hurricane conditions expected by
later on Sunday or on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected and hurricane conditions are possible within the watch and
warning area in Haiti through Sunday. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the watch area in eastern Cuba on Tuesday into
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 30
inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into
Wednesday, with local maxima of 40 inches possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday; uncertainty at that time
range precludes exact storm totals. Catastrophic flash flooding and
landslides are probable across portions of southern Hispaniola and
Jamaica.

For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with local
amounts to 18 inches, are expected into Wednesday resulting in
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday; uncertainty at that time range
precludes exact storm totals.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is becoming more likely
along the south coast of Jamaica later in the weekend or early next
week. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above
ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa
makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the
southeast coast of Cuba early next week.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 260251
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0300 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 75.9W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 40SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 75.9W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 75.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.4N 76.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT...155NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.4N 77.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.6N 77.5W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.2N 77.7W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.0N 77.2W...INLAND JAMAICA
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.4N 76.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 65NE 70SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 23.0N 72.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 75SE 55SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 28.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 170SE 120SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 75.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 26/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 252335
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT MELISSA IS
STRENGTHENING...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 75.6W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the
southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 75.6 West. Melissa is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward
motion is expected tonight through the end of the weekend. A turn
to the north and northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near
or over Jamaica during the weekend and early next week, and it
could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph
(155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast to
continue over the next day or so, and Melissa is forecast to become
a major hurricane tomorrow and is expected to still be a major
hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Jamaica by
tonight, with hurricane conditions expected by Sunday or Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch and warning area in Haiti later today.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in eastern Cuba
on Tuesday into Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 30
inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into
Wednesday, with local maxima of 40 inches possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday, but exact storm totals
are still uncertain. Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are
probable across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica.

For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with local
amounts to 18 inches, are expected into Wednesday resulting in
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday, but exact storm totals
are still uncertain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is becoming more likely
along the south coast of Jamaica later in the weekend or early next
week. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above
ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa
makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the
southeast coast of Cuba early next week.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 252101 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 18...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Corrected to update watch and warning summary.

...MELISSA LIKELY STARTING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND EXPECTED TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 75.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Cuban
provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the
southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 75.5 West. Melissa is
moving toward slowly the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward
motion is expected tonight through the end of the weekend. A turn to
the north and northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or
over Jamaica during the weekend and early next week, and it could be
near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast to continue
over the next day or so and Melissa is forecast to become a major
hurricane tomorrow and is expected to still be a major hurricane
when making landfall in Jamaica early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Jamaica by
tonight, with hurricane conditions expected by Sunday or Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch and warning area in Haiti later today.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in eastern Cuba
on Tuesday into Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 30
inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into
Wednesday, with local maxima of 40 inches possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday, but exact storm totals
are still uncertain. Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are
probable across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica.

For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with local
amounts to 18 inches, are expected into Wednesday resulting in
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday, but exact storm totals
are still uncertain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is becoming more likely
along the south coast of Jamaica later in the weekend or early next
week. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above
ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa
makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the
southeast coast of Cuba early next week.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 252100
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Melissa is likely beginning a period of rapid intensification (RI).
Since both the NOAA-P3 and Air Force Reserve C-130 aircraft sampled
the system this morning, the satellite presentation has continued to
improve, with cold -75 to -80 C cloud tops wrapping around the
center with hints of an eye starting to appear on visible images.
The eye is also becoming better defined on radar images out of
Jamaica with an overall diameter of around 20 n mi. In addition, an
earlier GMI microwave pass received after the prior advisory showed
a well-defined cyan ring on the 37-GHz, which is often a harbinger
of RI. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T5.0/90 kt from
SAB, and T4.5/77 kt from TAFB. The objective estimates from UW-CIMSS
were a little lower, but are also quickly rising, and the initial
intensity will be set at 80 kt this advisory, blending these
intensity estimates.

The hurricane now appears to be moving slowly westward, at an
estimated motion of 275/3 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge has built in
to the north of Melissa, and should be the main steering feature
over the next 24-48 hours to help move the hurricane slowly
westward. The deep-layer steering vector still has a slight
southward component, and it wouldn't be surprising to even see a
little south of due west motion occur, like the Google DeepMind
ensembles and ECMWF-AI model have been suggesting in the short-term
forecast. After the next couple of days, the ridging to the north
becomes quickly eroded by a shortwave trough moving across the
southeastern United States. The net result of this changing synoptic
pattern is that Melissa is expected to turn rather abruptly
northward and northeastward by the early to middle part of next
week. Compared to this morning, the track guidance has become more
tightly clustered in the across track direction, and even the 12z
GFS run, which was previous a eastward outlier, is now in better
agreement with the track guidance suite showing a direct landfall in
Jamaica. The main uncertainty is related to the amount of
acceleration that Melissa will undergo after it turns to the
northeast, and there remains large spread in the along-track
direction in both the deterministic and ensemble guidance in the day
3-5 time frame. The NHC track forecast is only slightly more
poleward compared to the prior forecast over the first 12-24 hours,
and convergences very close to the prior track thereafter. This
track is roughly a blend of the latest HCCA and GDMI track guidance.
On this track, this brings Melissa's core near Jamaica early on
Tuesday, and early on Wednesday along the eastern Cuba provinces,
where a hurricane watch is now in effect.

Rapid intensification appears to have started, and assuming Melissa
stays far enough south of Jamaica over the next couple of days,
there appear few impediments to its intensification in the
short-term. Both the hurricane-regional models and the Google
DeepMind ensembles suggest RI could continue for the next 36 to 48
hours. In fact, once again 4/5th s of the latter 50 member ensemble
are forecasting a peak intensity of Category 5 intensity. The 12z
HAFS-A run also showed a peak intensity of Category 5 in 48 hours,
and both HAFS-A/B have been suggesting a similar peak on and off
over the past few days. Given the current trends, the NHC intensity
forecast now shows a 140 kt peak in 48 hours, in general agreement
with this aggressive guidance. Afterwards, some inner-core
oscillations such as eyewall replacement cycles could lead to
fluctuations in intensity before its first landfall in Jamaica. It
is worth stressing that there is very little practical difference
in the overall impacts of a Category 4 or 5 landfall, and
Melissa is expected to be at least that intensity when moves over
Jamaica early next week. Land interaction will likely lead to some
weakening as it moves northeastward across Jamaica, but the storm
will likely also grow in size and is still forecast to be a major
hurricane when it moves over Cuba by the middle of this week. Only
after this period that southwesterly shear begins to increase in
earnest after it moves into the Southwestern Atlantic. The NHC
intensity forecast continues to be on the high end of the overall
guidance, siding with the higher intensity aids such as GDMI (which
has been the best preforming intensity guidance thus far this year)
and HAFS-A, but all the hurricane-regional models show a peak
intensity of at least Category 4 intensity.

Needless to say, there is a very serious situation, in terms of
catastrophic rainfall, wind, and storm surge hazards for Jamaica
and preparations should be rushed to completion in the area
currently under a Hurricane Warning.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: A multi-day period of damaging winds and heavy
rainfall is expected to begin tonight, causing catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides. Extensive
infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication
outages, and potentially prolonged isolation of communities is
likely. A life-threatening storm surge is also likely along
portions of the southern coast early next week. All preparations
should be completed today.

2. Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti into early next
week, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and
potentially prolonged isolation of communities. Strong winds could
also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce catastrophic
flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern portions of the
country.

4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:
Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a
significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the
middle of next week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides is increasing. A Hurricane Watch is
now in effect for portions of eastern Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 16.6N 75.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 16.7N 75.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 16.7N 76.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 16.7N 77.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 16.9N 77.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 17.6N 77.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 18.8N 76.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 22.0N 73.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 27.0N 69.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 252055
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...MELISSA LIKELY STARTING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND EXPECTED TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 75.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Cuban
provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, eastern Cuba,
the southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos
Islands should monitor the progress of Melissa. Watches could be
required for portions of eastern Cuba later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 75.5 West. Melissa is
moving toward slowly the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward
motion is expected tonight through the end of the weekend. A turn to
the north and northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or
over Jamaica during the weekend and early next week, and it could be
near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast to continue
over the next day or so and Melissa is forecast to become a major
hurricane tomorrow and is expected to still be a major hurricane
when making landfall in Jamaica early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Jamaica by
tonight, with hurricane conditions expected by Sunday or Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch and warning area in Haiti later today.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in eastern Cuba
on Tuesday into Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 30
inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into
Wednesday, with local maxima of 40 inches possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday, but exact storm totals
are still uncertain. Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are
probable across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica.

For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with local
amounts to 18 inches, are expected into Wednesday resulting in
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday, but exact storm totals
are still uncertain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is becoming more likely
along the south coast of Jamaica later in the weekend or early next
week. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above
ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa
makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the
southeast coast of Cuba early next week.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 252054
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
2100 UTC SAT OCT 25 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 75.5W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 40SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 60SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 75.5W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 75.2W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.7N 75.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT...160NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.7N 76.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.7N 77.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.9N 77.6W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.6N 77.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 55SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.8N 76.7W...BETWEEN JAMAICA AND E CUBA
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 65NE 70SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 22.0N 73.4W...NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 75SE 55SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 27.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 170SE 120SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 75.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 26/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 251732
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...MELISSA BECOMES A HURRICANE AND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 75.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, eastern Cuba,
the southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos
Islands should monitor the progress of Melissa. Watches could be
required for portions of eastern Cuba later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 75.2 West. Melissa is
moving slowly toward the west-northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow
west-northwestward or westward motion is expected today through
the end of the weekend. A turn to the north and northeast is
forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica during the weekend
and early next week, and it could be near or over eastern Cuba by
the middle of next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast to occur over
the next couple of days and Melissa is forecast to become a major
hurricane by Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Jamaica by
tonight, with hurricane conditions expected by Sunday or Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch and warning area in Haiti later today.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 25
inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into
Wednesday, with local maxima of 35 inches possible across eastern
Jamaica and the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday but exact storm totals are still
uncertain. Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected
across southwestern Haiti and portions of Jamaica, with the
possibility of catastrophic flood impacts also extending across the
remainder of southern Haiti into southern Dominican Republic.

For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with local
amounts to 15 inches, are expected into Wednesday resulting in
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday; uncertainty at that time range
precludes exact storm totals.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is becoming more likely
along the south coast of Jamaica later in the weekend or early next
week. Peak storm surge heights could reach 7 to 11 feet above
ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa
makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the
southeast coast of Cuba early next week.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 251458
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Melissa is very nearly a hurricane. Data from both the Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate the storm has become better
organized, with a 20 n mi eyewall that has been coming an going.
This structure has also been seen on radar images out of Kingston,
Jamaica. Compared to last night, Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) data
indicates the tropical cyclone is much better aligned vertically,
though some residual eastward tilt with height exists in the
mid-levels. The peak flight level winds at 700 mb were up to 68 kt.
Using a standard 0.9 adjustment factor to surface winds yields an
intensity of 60 kt, but Melissa could become a hurricane at any
time, as other satellite intensity estimates already support a
higher value.

The initial motion is crawling along to the west-northwest,
estimated between aircraft fixes to be 285/1 kt. Now that the
tropical cyclone has become better aligned vertically, it should
increasingly feel the deep-layer steering, which has a slight south
of due-west component from the latest ECMWF steering diagnostics.
The spread in the model solutions even in the next 12-36 hours is
higher than usual, with the AI models, Google DeepMind ensemble
mean (GDMI) and ECMWF-AI (AIFS) on the south and western end of the
guidance envelope showing a westward or even west-southwestward
motion in the short-term, while the traditional dynamical aids
(ECMWF, HAFS-A/B) show more of a west-northwestward drift
towards Jamaica over the next 24-36 hours. Still though, nearly all
of the reliable track guidance (discounting the GFS which has been
an eastward outlier since the storm formed) shows Melissa making
landfall in Jamaica sometime in the 60-72 hour time frame. During
this time, a digging mid-latitude trough in the southeastern United
States is expected to create a new weakness to the north of
Melissa, which should result in the cyclone taking a sharp turn to
the northeast. While the guidance is in good agreement on this
general turn with relatively small across-track spread, there
remains high along-track spread in the solutions, best highlighted
by the Google DeepMind ensemble which shows a spread in possible
locations in 96 h from still inland over Jamaica to northeast
of Cuba in the southwestern Atlantic. The NHC track forecast is a
touch south of the prior track for the first 24-48 hours, but
converges on the prior track forecast thereafter. This is a little
on the eastern side of the track guidance envelope, giving credence
to the AI model solutions (GDMI, ECAI) which to date are the best
preforming track guidance this hurricane season.

Melissa seems to be shaking off the negative effects of westerly
shear now that the storm is becoming better vertically aligned.
Thus, it appears likely that a period of rapid intensification
will occur as the storm moves slowly over very warm ocean waters
(30-31C sea-surface temperatures) which is also over the highest
oceanic heat content in the entire Atlantic basin, which will limit
initial ocean upwelling under the slow moving storm. Similar to the
previous cycles, roughly 40/50 Google DeepMind ensemble members show
Melissa becoming a Category 5. While I am not ready to forecast that
intensity yet given the track uncertainty, that remains a
possibility. After 48 h, inner core processes (such as eyewall
replacement cycles) could cause fluctuations in intensity, but
Melissa is still expected to make landfall in Jamaica as an
upper-end Category 4 hurricane, which could be the strongest direct
landfall for the island in since tropical cyclone record keeping has
been made in the Atlantic Basin. Weakening is expected as Melissa
moves over the high terrain of Jamaica and eastern Cuba, with
further weakening expected thereafter as southwesterly vertical wind
shear increases. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the high end
of the guidance, but closest too the Google DeepMind ensemble mean,
which has also been on of our best intensity guidance performers
this year.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Melissa’s slow movement will bring a multi-day period
of damaging winds and heavy rainfall beginning tonight, likely
causing catastrophic flash flooding, numerous landslides, extensive
infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication
outages, and potentially prolonged isolation of communities. A
life-threatening storm surge is also likely along portions of the
southern coast early next week. All preparations should be completed
today.

2. Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti into early next
week, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and
potentially prolonged isolation of communities. Strong winds could
also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce potentially
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
regions.

4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:
Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a
significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the
middle of next week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides is increasing.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 16.5N 75.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 16.4N 75.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 16.5N 76.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 16.6N 76.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 16.7N 77.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 17.2N 77.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 17.9N 77.2W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/1200Z 20.5N 75.1W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1200Z 25.0N 71.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 251452
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...MELISSA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AND FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY THIS WEEKEND...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 75.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, eastern Cuba,
the southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos
Islands should monitor the progress of Melissa. Watches could be
required for portions of eastern Cuba later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located by Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters near
latitude 16.5 North, longitude 75.1 West. Melissa is moving toward
the west-northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow west-northwestward or
westward motion is expected today through Sunday night. A turn to
the north and northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or
over Jamaica during the weekend and early next week, and it could be
near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast to occur over
the next 24 hours. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane later
today and a major hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Jamaica by
tonight, with hurricane conditions expected by Sunday or Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch and warning area in Haiti later today.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 25
inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into
Wednesday, with local maxima of 35 inches possible across eastern
Jamaica and the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday but exact storm totals are still
uncertain. Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected
across southwestern Haiti and portions of Jamaica, with the
possibility of catastrophic flood impacts also extending across the
remainder of southern Haiti into southern Dominican Republic.

For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with local
amounts to 15 inches, are expected into Wednesday resulting in
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday; uncertainty at that time range
precludes exact storm totals.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is becoming more likely
along the south coast of Jamaica later in the weekend or early next
week. Peak storm surge heights could reach 7 to 11 feet above
ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa
makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the
southeast coast of Cuba early next week.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 251451
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1500 UTC SAT OCT 25 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 75.1W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 45SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 75.1W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 75.0W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.4N 75.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.5N 76.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.6N 76.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.7N 77.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.2N 77.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 55SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.9N 77.2W...INLAND OVER JAMAICA
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 55NE 60SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 20.5N 75.1W...INLAND OVER E CUBA
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 25.0N 71.0W...OVER SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 130SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 75.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 251152
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...MELISSA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AND FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
THIS WEEKEND...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 75.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, eastern Cuba,
the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the
progress of Melissa. Watches could be required for portions of
eastern Cuba later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located by both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 75.0 West. Melissa is
moving slowly toward the west-northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h).

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast to begin over the next 24
hours. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane shortly and a major
hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure measured by Air Force and NOAA aircraft
dropsonde data is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Jamaica by
tonight, with hurricane conditions expected by Sunday or Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch and warning area in Haiti later today.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 25
inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through
Tuesday, with local maxima of 35 inches possible across the Tiburon
Peninsula of Haiti. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond
Tuesday; uncertainty at that time range precludes exact storm
totals. Potential catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are
possible across portions of Jamaica and the southern Dominican
Republic, while catastrophic flash flooding is anticipated in
southern Haiti.

For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local
amounts to 12 inches, is possible into Tuesday. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Tuesday; uncertainty at that time range
precludes exact storm totals.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of
Jamaica starting by tonight in areas of onshore winds as tropical
storm conditions begin to reach the area.

However, there is a risk of a more life-threatening storm surge,
especially along the south coast of Jamaica, later in the
weekend or early next week. Peak storm surge heights could reach 5
to 10 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the
center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 250843
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

During the last center fix of the Air Force Reserve mission into
Melissa several hours ago, a dropsonde measured a surface pressure
of 989 mb with winds of 27 kt, suggesting that the central pressure
has fallen to about 986 mb. The plane did not measure stronger
winds, but it did not fly through the area due east of the center,
which is where a nearly coincident ASCAT pass suggested the
strongest winds would be located. Some westerly shear is still
evident, but the center is now embedded far enough under the
Central Dense Overcast to yield Dvorak estimates of T4.0/65 kt from
TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB. The current intensity is estimated to
be 60 kt based on all these data. It's also worth noting that an
eye feature has occasionally been apparent in radar images from
Jamaica.

Melissa is currently moving slowly northwestward (310/3 kt).
Steering currents will remain weak for the next 3 days, and Melissa
is forecast to drift westward through Sunday night to the south of
Jamaica. A sharp but still very slow turn toward the north is
expected Monday and Monday night. Unfortunately, a large majority
of the latest reliable track models show Melissa making landfall on
Jamaica in about 72 hours. What's most concerning here is that the
island is likely to experience a couple of days of heavy rainfall
and tropical-storm-force winds before the core--and strongest
winds--even reach the coast. An increase in forward motion is
expected by days 4 and 5, with Melissa accelerating northeastward
across eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands. Although there are some speed differences among
the models, for the most part the cross-track spread is generally
small.

Although some westerly shear is likely to continue for the next few
days, high oceanic heat content and stronger upper-level
divergence should be able to support significant strengthening.
The dynamical model-based Rapid Intensification (RI) indices
(DTOPS) in particular are quite aggressive, showing a very high
probability of a 55-kt increase in intensity over the next 48
hours. In addition, 41 of the 50 Google DeepMind ensemble members
show Melissa at category 4 or 5 strength by Monday afternoon (60
hours), which is the same time that the NHC forecast continues to
show a peak intensity of 135 kt. Although some slight weakening is
possible after 60 hours, possibly due to the circulation
interacting with land and/or an eyewall replacement, Melissa still
has a significant possibility of making landfall on Jamaica as a
major hurricane. Melissa could maintain major hurricane strength
when it reaches eastern Cuba, but increased shear should lead to
weakening below major hurricane strength by day 5.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Melissa’s slow movement will bring a multi-day period
of damaging winds and heavy rainfall beginning tonight, likely
causing catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides. There
is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge early next
week. All preparations should be completed today.

2. Haiti: Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected
across southwestern Haiti into early next week, likely causing
extensive infrastructural damage and potentially prolonged isolation
of communities. Immediate preparations to protect life and property
are urged. Strong winds could also potentially last for a day or
more over the Tiburon peninsula.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce potentially
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
regions.

4. Eastern Cuba, Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa
closely. There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge,
damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the middle of next week. In
eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides is increasing.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 16.3N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 16.5N 75.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 16.7N 75.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 16.8N 76.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 16.9N 77.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 17.2N 77.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 17.8N 77.2W 125 KT 145 MPH...S COAST OF JAMAICA
96H 29/0600Z 20.4N 75.3W 105 KT 120 MPH...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
120H 30/0600Z 24.8N 71.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 250842
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0900 UTC SAT OCT 25 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 75.0W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 75.0W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 74.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.5N 75.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.7N 75.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.8N 76.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.9N 77.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.2N 77.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.8N 77.2W...S COAST OF JAMAICA
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 20.4N 75.3W...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 170SE 100SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 24.8N 71.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 140SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 75.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 250842
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...MELISSA FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE
TODAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 75.0W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, eastern Cuba,
the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the
progress of Melissa. Watches could be required for portions of
eastern Cuba later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 75.0 West. Melissa is
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow
west-northwestward to westward motion is expected today through
Sunday night. A turn to the north and northeast is forecast on
Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa
is expected to move near or over Jamaica during the weekend and
early next week, and it could be near or over eastern Cuba by the
middle of next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid intensification is expected to begin soon. Melissa is
forecast to become a hurricane today and a major hurricane by
Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Jamaica by
tonight, with hurricane conditions expected by Sunday or Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch and warning area in Haiti later today.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 25
inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through
Tuesday, with local maxima of 35 inches possible across the Tiburon
Peninsula of Haiti. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond
Tuesday; uncertainty at that time range precludes exact storm
totals. Potential catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are
possible across portions of Jamaica and the southern Dominican
Republic, while catastrophic flash flooding is anticipated in
southern Haiti.

For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local
amounts to 12 inches, is possible into Tuesday. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Tuesday; uncertainty at that time range
precludes exact storm totals.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of
Jamaica starting by tonight in areas of onshore winds as tropical
storm conditions begin to reach the area.

However, there is a risk of a more life-threatening storm surge,
especially along the south coast of Jamaica, later in the
weekend or early next week. Peak storm surge heights could reach 5
to 10 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the
center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 250541
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA SUGGEST MELISSA IS ALMOST A
HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 74.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern
Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor
the progress of Melissa. Watches could be required for portions of
eastern Cuba later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 74.9 West. Melissa is
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn to the west
is forecast today, and this general motion is expected to continue
through Monday. A turn to the north and northeast is forecast on
Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa
is expected to move near or over Jamaica during the weekend and
early next week, and it could be near or over eastern Cuba by the
middle of next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is expected to begin soon.
Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane today and a major
hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter dropsonde data is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in
Jamaica beginning Sunday, with tropical storm conditions beginning
later today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area in Haiti later this weekend, with tropical storm conditions
expected to begin today.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 25
inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through
Tuesday, with local maxima of 35 inches possible across the Tiburon
Peninsula of Haiti. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond
Tuesday; uncertainty at that time range precludes exact storm
totals. Potential catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are
possible across portions of Jamaica and the southern Dominican
Republic, while catastrophic flash flooding is anticipated in
southern Haiti.

For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local
amounts to 12 inches, are possible into Tuesday. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Tuesday; uncertainty at that time range
precludes exact storm totals.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of
Jamaica starting today in areas of onshore winds as tropical storm
conditions begin to reach the area.

However, there is a risk of a more life-threatening storm surge,
especially along the south coast of Jamaica, later in the
weekend or early next week. Peak storm surge heights could reach 5
to 10 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the
center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 242347
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT LITTLE
CHANGE IN MELISSA'S STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 74.6W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern
Cuba, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Melissa. A
hurricane warning may be required for Jamaica later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 74.6 West. A turn to
the west is forecast on Saturday and this general motion is
expected to continue through Monday. A turn to the north and
northeast is forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or over
Jamaica early next week and could be near or over eastern Cuba by
the middle of next week.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast over the
next several days, and Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane
tomorrow and a major hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti later this weekend and Jamaica beginning late this weekend or
early next week. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in
Haiti tonight or Saturday and in Jamaica late Saturday into Sunday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 25
inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through
Tuesday, with local maxima of 35 inches possible across the Tiburon
Peninsula of Haiti. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond
Tuesday. The uncertainty at that time range precludes exact storm
totals. Potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are
possible across portions of Jamaica and the southern Dominican
Republic, while catastrophic flash flooding is anticipated in
southern Haiti.

For southeast Cuba, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local
amounts to 12 inches, are possible into Tuesday. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Tuesday. The uncertainty at that time
range precludes exact storm totals.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of
Jamaica by Saturday in areas of onshore winds as tropical storm
conditions begin to reach the area.

However, there is a risk of a more life-threatening storm surge,
especially along the south coast of Jamaica, early next week. Peak
storm surge heights could reach 5 to 10 feet above ground level,
near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall.
This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 242054
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

After the previous advisory, the last couple of aircraft fixes from
the C-130 indicated that Melissa likely completed a center
relocation as a very large burst of deep convection with cloud tops
below -90C rotated up-shear of the center. This evolution was also
nicely captured on the GOES-19 mesoscale sector, where GLM lightning
flashes, which had been parked down-shear earlier in the morning,
started to rotate cyclonically along Melissa's eastern flank,
indicating convection was finally starting to wrap around the
low-level vortex. A GMI microwave pass at 1527 UTC also hinted at a
nascent inner core feature on the 37 GHz channel as the convective
burst wrapped around the center. Before the Air Force Hurricane
Hunters left Melissa, they measured a peak flight level wind of 59
kt, and a pressure down to 997 mb, supporting the 50 kt intensity
for the intermediate advisory. However, given the improvement of
Melissa's structure since that time, the initial intensity is being
raised to 55 kt for this advisory, in best agreement with the
T3.5/55-kt Dvorak intensity estimate provided by TAFB. Another Air
Force Reserve and a NOAA-P3 reconnaissance mission will be in the
storm tonight to provide more data on Melissa's intensity and
structure.

Now that the center is becoming better aligned with its mid-level
vortex, it also appears the tropical storm has finally turned more
northward, with an estimated motion of 360/2 kt. The synoptic track
reasoning remains similar to this morning, with a slow motion
expected to continue in the short-term due light steering currents,
due to competing mid-level ridges to the southeast and northwest of
Melissa. After 24 hours, the mid-level ridge located to the
northwest is expected to strengthen to the north of Melissa, and the
guidance is coming into better agreement on a very slow westward
motion through 72 hours. Beyond that time frame, a strengthening
mid-latitude trough expected to move into the Southeastern U.S.,
providing a path for Melissa to turn northeastward out of the
Caribbean Sea into the southwestern Atlantic by the end of the
forecast period. The track guidance this cycle has shifted a bit
eastward beyond day 3, and is also notably faster than before.
However, it should be stressed that there remains a substantial
amount of along track spread. On the forecast track, Melissa could
potentially be near Jamaica by day 4 and move across Cuba before the
end of the forecast period, though the timing of this track remains
more uncertain than usual.

Compared to yesterday, the UW-CIMSS shear estimates have dropped
from 25 kt a day ago to 15 kt currently with mid-level shear also
decreasing. This reduction in shear, in combination with the
dramatically improved structure of Melissa this afternoon, suggests
that the system is ready to take advantage of other favorable
environmental conditions (30-31 C sea-surface temperatures, a
moistening deep-layer environment). The intensity guidance is
sharply higher this afternoon in the short-term, and it appears that
Melissa could begin a period of rapid intensification (RI) at any
time. The NHC intensity forecast responds to this guidance change by
explicitly show RI earlier and continuing over the weekend. The
forecast now shows a 135 kt peak in 60 h, and there is a distinct
possibility that Melissa could become a Category 5 hurricane during
this time period. In fact, the latest 12z Google DeepMind ensemble
distribution shows the majority of its members reaching this lofty
intensity. After that time period, inner-core structural changes are
likely to cause fluctuations in intensity, and land interaction in
both Jamaica and Cuba will likely lead to some weakening by the end
of the forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is on the high side of
the guidance envelope, and closest too the Google DeepMind ensemble
mean (GDMI).

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Due to Melissa’s slow motion, a prolonged multi-day
period of damaging winds and heavy rainfall resulting in potentially
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides is likely to
begin late Saturday or Sunday. There is an increasing risk of
life-threatening storm surge when the center of Melissa nears
Jamaica early next week. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

2. Haiti: Heavy rainfall will result in catastrophic flash flooding
and landslides across southwestern Haiti into early next week.
Extensive damage to roads and buildings is expected, potentially
isolating communities for an extended period of time. Immediate
preparations to protect life and property should be taken. Strong
winds could also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon
peninsula of Haiti.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce potentially
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
portions of the Dominican Republic.

4. Eastern Cuba and Bahamas: Interests in Cuba and the Bahamas
should monitor the progress of Melissa since there is an increasing
risk of a significant storm storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy
rainfall by the middle of next week. The risk of life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides in eastern Cuba are increasing.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 16.0N 74.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 16.2N 74.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 16.4N 74.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 16.5N 75.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 16.5N 76.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 16.5N 76.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 16.8N 77.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 17.9N 77.4W 120 KT 140 MPH...INLAND IN JAMAICA
120H 29/1800Z 21.5N 74.8W 95 KT 110 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 242044
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...MELISSA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE
THIS WEEKEND...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 74.3W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern
Cuba, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Melissa. A
hurricane warning may be required for Jamaica later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 74.3 West. Melissa is
moving slowly toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn to the
west is forecast on Saturday and this general motion is expected to
continue through Monday. A turn to the north and northeast is
forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica early next week
and could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is now forecast over the
next several days, and Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane
tomorrow and a major hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti later this weekend and Jamaica beginning late this weekend or
early next week. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in
Haiti tonight or Saturday and in Jamaica late Saturday into Sunday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 25
inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through
Tuesday, with local maxima of 35 inches possible across the Tiburon
Peninsula of Haiti. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond
Tuesday. The uncertainty at that time range precludes exact storm
totals. Potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are
possible across portions of Jamaica and the southern Dominican
Republic, while catastrophic flash flooding is anticipated in
southern Haiti.

For southeast Cuba, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local
amounts to 12 inches, are possible into Tuesday. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Tuesday. The uncertainty at that time
range precludes exact storm totals.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of
Jamaica by Saturday in areas of onshore winds as tropical storm
conditions begin to reach the area.

However, there is a risk of a more life-threatening storm surge,
especially along the south coast of Jamaica, early next week. Peak
storm surge heights could reach 5 to 10 feet above ground level,
near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall.
This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 242041
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
2100 UTC FRI OCT 24 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 74.3W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE 30SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 74.3W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 74.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.2N 74.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.4N 74.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.5N 75.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.5N 76.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 55SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.5N 76.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 65NE 60SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.8N 77.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 17.9N 77.4W...INLAND IN JAMAICA
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 85SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 200SE 120SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 21.5N 74.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 95NE 110SE 90SW 65NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE 160SW 140NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 74.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 241738
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...MELISSA REORGANIZING AND POISED TO INTENSIFY SUBSTANTIALLY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 74.4W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern
Cuba, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Melissa. A
hurricane warning may be required for Jamaica later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data near latitude 15.6
North, longitude 74.4 West. Melissa is drifting toward the
east-southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn to the northeast and
north at a continued slow motion is expected to begin this afternoon
and tonight. A westward turn is forecast on Saturday and this
general motion is expected to continue through Monday. A turn to the
north and northeast is forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or
just south of Jamaica early next week and could be near eastern Cuba
by the middle of next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast today, followed by rapid
intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a
hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is
997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti later this weekend and Jamaica beginning late this weekend or
early next week. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin
in Haiti tonight or Saturday and in Jamaica later this weekend.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 10 to 20 inches of rain to
portions of southwestern Haiti and eastern Jamaica through Monday,
with locally higher amounts possible. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12
inches are expected across the rest of southern Haiti and the
southern Dominican Republic. Additional heavy rainfall is likely
beyond Monday. However, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward
speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are expected
in the southern Dominican Republic and eastern Jamaica, with
catastrophic flash flooding and landslides anticipated in southern
Haiti.

Across portions of northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and
western Jamaica, 3 to 5 inches of rain is expected through Monday.
Flash and urban flooding will be possible. Flooding impacts will
likely increase across western Jamaica next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of
Jamaica by Saturday in areas of onshore winds as tropical storm
conditions begin to reach the area. However, there is a potential
risk of a more significant storm surge, especially along the south
coast of Jamaica, early next week. Due to Melissa's slow motion and
large forecast uncertainty, it is still too soon to know exactly how
high the storm surge could reach.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 241630
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1230 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT MELISSA IS STRENGTHENING...

Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data indicates that
Melissa is strengthening, and maximum sustained winds are now
estimated to be 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum
pressure from aircraft dropsonde data has dropped to 999 mb
(29.50 inches).

SUMMARY OF 1230 PM EDT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 74.5W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 241459
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance that has been flying through
Melissa this morning found the center significantly further to
the east-southeast than what was observed last night. How much of
this position is related to a real motion, or a center reformation
is unclear at this time. The storm remains about the same on
satellite imagery this morning, with a large burst of
deep convection, primarily along its southeastern flank, with
evidence of northwesterly shear still undercutting the outflow. A
WSFM microwave pass shows very deep hot towers, but not with that
much structure beyond that. In addition, there hasn't been a
significant change to Melissa's intensity, with peak 850 mb flight
level winds of 49 kt, and these winds support maintaining 40 kt
intensity this advisory.

As has been stated for the last few days, the lack of persistent
steering currents, due to competing mid-level ridges to the
southeast and northwest of Melissa, is responsible for the storm's
very slow motion. This is likely to continue for the next day or so,
and much of the system's motion could be just as influenced by
center reformations during this time period. After 24 hours, the
mid-level ridge located to the northwest is expected to strengthen
to the north of Melissa, and the guidance is coming into better
agreement on a very slow westward motion through 72 hours. Beyond
that time frame, a strengthening mid-latitude trough expected to
move into the Southeastern U.S., should provide an avenue for
Melissa to escape the Caribbean Sea to the northeast by the end of
the forecast period. The track guidance overall has shifted south
over the first few days, but there is still substantial spread in
solutions at the end of the forecast period, related to when and
how fast Melissa turns to the northeast. The latest NHC track
forecast is a little south of the prior one early on, but is
shifted a little eastward in 4-5 days, roughly a blend of the latest
HCCA and GDMI model aid solutions. On the forecast track, Melissa
could potentially be near western Jamaica by day 4 and near or
over southeastern Cuba by day 5, though timing still remains more
uncertain than usual.

The GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS shear guidance indicates the
deep-layer shear is lower than yesterday, between 14-17 kt, but
there still appears to be mid-level shear undercutting the outflow
layer. Until Melissa also become better aligned vertically, any
intensification is likely to be slow to occur over the next 12 h or
so. After that, once Melissa's structure improves, environmental
conditions still appear favorable for a period of rapid
intensification (RI). Every single Google DeepMind member shows the
system become a Category 4 hurricane or higher, and the uncertainty
is more related on the timing of when RI occurs. After 96 hours,
Melissa could weaken some due to the combined effects of land
interaction, and an increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear by
the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is
on the higher end of the model solutions, but more or less in line
with the latest GDMI guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged
multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall
resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides, and storm surge continues to increase for Jamaica.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in
Jamaica on Saturday or Sunday.

2. Haiti: Heavy rainfall will result in catastrophic flash flooding
and landslides across southwestern Haiti into early next week.
Extensive damage to roads and buildings is expected, potentially
isolating communities for an extended period of time. This is a
life-threatening situation and immediate preparations to protect
life and property should be taken. Strong winds could also
potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula of
Haiti.

3. Remainder of Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall could
also produce significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
numerous landslides in southern Dominican Republic. Interests in
Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa since the risk of heavy
rainfall, damaging winds, and storm surge appears to be increasing.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 15.7N 74.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 15.9N 74.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 16.3N 74.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 16.5N 75.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 16.6N 76.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 16.6N 76.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 16.6N 77.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 17.5N 78.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 20.4N 76.7W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 241450
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT MELISSA COULD BE REFORMING TO THE
EAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 74.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern
Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa. A hurricane warning
may be required for Jamaica later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude
15.7 North, longitude 74.6 West. Melissa may have reformed recently,
with an estimated motion toward the east-southeast near 2 mph
(4 km/h). A slow motion turning to the northeast and then north is
expected to begin later today and tonight. A westward turn is then
forecast to begin on Saturday with that motion continuing through
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to
move near or just south of Jamaica early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast today, followed by rapid
intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a
hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti later this weekend and Jamaica beginning late this weekend or
early next week. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin
in Haiti tonight or Saturday and in Jamaica later this weekend.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 10 to 20 inches of rain to
portions of southwestern Haiti and eastern Jamaica through Monday,
with locally higher amounts possible. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12
inches are expected across the rest of southern Haiti and the
southern Dominican Republic. Additional heavy rainfall is likely
beyond Monday. However, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward
speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are expected
in the southern Dominican Republic and eastern Jamaica, with
catastrophic flash flooding and landslides anticipated in southern
Haiti.

Across portions of northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and
western Jamaica, 3 to 5 inches of rain is expected through Monday.
Flash and urban flooding will be possible. Flooding impacts will
likely increase across western Jamaica next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of
Jamaica by Saturday in areas of onshore winds as tropical storm
conditions begin to reach the area. However, there is a potential
risk of a more significant storm surge, especially along the south
coast of Jamaica, early next week. Due to Melissa's slow motion and
large forecast uncertainty, it is still too soon to know exactly how
high the storm surge could reach.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 241449
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1500 UTC FRI OCT 24 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 74.6W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 15SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 74.6W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 75.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.9N 74.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.3N 74.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.5N 75.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.6N 76.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.6N 76.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.6N 77.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 17.5N 78.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 65SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 80SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 20.4N 76.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 65SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 140SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 74.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 241156
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...MELISSA DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS RECONNAISSANCE
INVESTIGATES THIS MORNING...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 75.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern
Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa. A hurricane warning
may be required for Jamaica later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located by Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 15.9
North, longitude 75.0 West. Melissa is drifting toward the
east-southeast near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow drift toward the
northeast and north is expected to begin later today and tonight. A
westward drift is then forecast to begin on Saturday and continue
through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is
expected to move near or just south of Jamaica early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed
by rapid intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to
become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is
1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti on Saturday and Jamaica beginning late Saturday or Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Haiti later today
and in Jamaica on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 8 to 14 inches of rain to
southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica
through Sunday night, with locally higher amounts possible.
Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Sunday night; however,
uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence
in exact totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
numerous landslides are expected in the southern Dominican Republic
and eastern Jamaica, with catastrophic flash flooding and landslides
anticipated in southern Haiti.

Across northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western
Jamaica, 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected through Sunday night.
Flash and urban flooding will be possible through Sunday night.
Flooding impacts may increase across western Jamaica next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of
Jamaica by Saturday in areas of onshore winds as tropical storm
conditions begin to reach the area. However, there is a potential
risk of a more significant storm surge, especially along the south
coast of Jamaica, early next week. Due to Melissa's slow motion and
large forecast uncertainty, it is still too soon to know exactly how
high the storm surge could reach.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 240842
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

For all intents and purposes, Melissa is nearly stationary over the
north-central Caribbean Sea. The estimated center has been
adjusted a bit based on scatterometer data from last evening, but
wind direction data from buoy 42058 also suggest that the
circulation could still be a bit elongated. There are several deep
convective bursts embedded within the overall cloud canopy,
although banding features are not particularly well defined at the
moment. An Air Force Reserve mission should provide a more accurate
estimate of Melissa's center location and intensity in a couple of
hours, and for now the estimated intensity is maintained at 40 kt.

With Melissa located within a break in the mid-level ridge, the
steering currents remain weak. Track models suggest that some
meandering or a slow northeast to north drift is likely to occur
over the next 24 hours. By Saturday, there will likely be just
enough mid-level ridging building north of the storm to cause
Melissa to begin moving very slowly westward, with that motion
continuing through Tuesday. What's most noteworthy is that several
reliable models, including the ECMWF, HCCA, and Google DeepMind
ensemble mean have shifted southward during this period. The new
NHC forecast reflects this slight shift, but it's important to note
that several other models continue to show Melissa's center getting
perilously close to or over Jamaica in 2-3 days. A slow
recurvature is forecast on days 4 and 5, with Melissa potentially
moving near western Jamaica and approaching southeastern Cuba by
early Wednesday. Interestingly, the 00z ECMWF keeps Melissa south
or southwest of Jamaica through day 5, but it appears to be an
outlier compared to the other guidance.

Strong westerly shear continues to affect Melissa, but there are
some indications that the shear could gradually decrease over the
next 24-36 hours. At the same time, high ocean heat content values
and stronger upper-level divergence should help to induce
strengthening. There is fairly strong agreement among the
intensity models that a period of rapid intensification could begin
in about 24 hours, and the NHC forecast shows Melissa becoming a
hurricane in 36 hours. Although this is an aggressive forecast
given Melissa's current structure, several models are even stronger
than the NHC forecast at that forecast time. There is less model
agreement on Melissa's intensity after 48 hours. In order to
maintain continuity with previous forecasts, the NHC prediction is
near the top end of the guidance envelope and close to the Google
DeepMind ensemble mean. Other models show flatlining or decreasing
intensity after 48 hours, but that is likely due to scenarios that
account for more land interaction.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged
multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall
resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides, and storm surge continues to increase for Jamaica.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in
Jamaica later today or on Saturday.

2. Haiti: Heavy rainfall will result in catastrophic flash
flooding and landslides across southwestern Haiti by this weekend
into early next week. Extensive damage to roads and buildings is
expected, potentially isolating communities for an extended period
of time. This is a life-threatening situation and immediate
preparations to protect life and property should be taken. Strong
winds could also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon
peninsula of Haiti.

3. Remainder of Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall could
also produce significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
numerous landslides in southern Dominican Republic. Interests in
Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa since the risk of heavy
rainfall, damaging winds, and storm surge appears to be increasing.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 16.0N 75.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 16.1N 75.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 16.6N 75.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 16.9N 75.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 16.9N 76.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 16.9N 77.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 16.9N 78.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 17.6N 78.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 19.8N 77.9W 120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 240841
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0900 UTC FRI OCT 24 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 75.5W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 90SE 15SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 75.5W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 75.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.1N 75.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.6N 75.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.9N 75.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.9N 76.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.9N 77.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.9N 78.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 17.6N 78.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 19.8N 77.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 120SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 75.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 240841
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...MELISSA NEARLY STATIONARY...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 75.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern
Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa. A hurricane warning
may be required for Jamaica later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 75.5 West. Melissa is
nearly stationary, but a slow drift toward the northeast and
north is expected later today and tonight. A westward drift is
then forecast to begin on Saturday and continue through Monday. On
the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near
or just south of Jamaica early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed
by rapid intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to
become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti on Saturday and Jamaica beginning late Saturday or Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Haiti later today
and in Jamaica on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 8 to 14 inches of rain to
southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica
through Sunday night, with locally higher amounts possible.
Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Sunday night; however,
uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence
in exact totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
numerous landslides are expected in the southern Dominican Republic
and eastern Jamaica, with catastrophic flash flooding and landslides
anticipated in southern Haiti.

Across northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western
Jamaica, 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected through Sunday night.
Flash and urban flooding will be possible through Sunday night.
Flooding impacts may increase across western Jamaica next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of
Jamaica by Saturday in areas of onshore winds as tropical storm
conditions begin to reach the area. However, there is a potential
risk of a more significant storm surge, especially along the south
coast of Jamaica, early next week. Due to Melissa's slow motion and
large forecast uncertainty, it is still too soon to know exactly how
high the storm surge could reach.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 240536
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 75.4W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern
Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa. A hurricane warning
will likely be required for Jamaica later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 75.4 West. Melissa is
drifting toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow northward or
north-northeastward motion is forecast during the next day or so,
followed by a sharp turn westward over the weekend. On the forecast
track, Melissa is expected to move closer to Jamaica and the
southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed
by rapid intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to
become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by the end of
the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti on Saturday and Jamaica beginning late Saturday or Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Haiti later today
and in Jamaica on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 8 to 14 inches of rain to the
southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica
through Sunday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is likely beyond Sunday; however, uncertainty in
Melissa's track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact
totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides are expected in the southern Dominican Republic and
eastern Jamaica, with catastrophic flash flooding and landslides
anticipated in southern Haiti.

Across the northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western
Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected through Sunday. Flash
and urban flooding will be possible through Sunday. Flooding
impacts may increase across western Jamaica next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of
Jamaica by Saturday in areas of onshore winds as tropical storm
conditions begin to reach the area. However, there is a potential
risk of a more significant storm surge, especially along the south
coast of Jamaica, early next week. Due to Melissa's slow motion and
large forecast uncertainty, it is still too soon to know exactly how
high the storm surge could reach.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 240237
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

...MELISSA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI...
...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 75.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa. A hurricane warning will
likely be required for the island of Jamaica on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 75.5 West. Melissa is
moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow northward or
north-northeastward motion is forecast during the next day or so,
followed by a sharp turn westward over the weekend. On the forecast
track, Melissa is expected to move closer to Jamaica and the
southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed
by rapid intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to
become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by the end of
the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti and Jamaica beginning on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin in Haiti and Jamaica on Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 8 to 14 inches of rain to the
southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica
through Sunday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is likely beyond Sunday; however, uncertainty in
Melissa's track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact
totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides are expected in the southern Dominican Republic and
eastern Jamaica, with catastrophic flash flooding and landslides
anticipated in southern Haiti.

Across the northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western
Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected through Sunday. Flash
and urban flooding will be possible through Sunday. Flooding impacts
may increase across western Jamaica next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of
Jamaica by late Friday into Saturday in areas of onshore winds as
tropical storm conditions begin to reach the area. However, there
is a potential risk of a more significant storm surge, especially
along the south coast of Jamaica, early next week. Due to Melissa's
slow motion and large forecast uncertainty, it is still too soon to
know exactly how high the storm surge could reach.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 240237
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Melissa has gotten a little better organized this evening, with the
low-level center re-forming a little to the north close to a burst
of deep convection. However, tail Doppler radar data from a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggests the storm is still not
vertically aligned, and the circulation at 700 and 500 mb is still
poorly defined. The central pressure remains near 1001 mb, so the
initial intensity will be held at 40 kt. However, the aircraft wind
data suggest this could be a little generous.

The initial motion is now slowly northward, 355/3 kt. Melissa
remains trapped in an area of weak steering currents between
mid-level ridges to the southeast and northwest. During the next
couple of days, the ridge to the northwest is forecast to build
eastward to the north of Melissa in the wake of a mid-latitude
shortwave trough currently moving eastward through the Bahamas.
This evolution would cause Melissa to move slowly northward for the
next 24 h or so, followed by a westerly turn at a continued slow
forward speed. The GFS and the HAFS regional hurricane models show
a more initial eastward motion possibly due to center re-formation,
and due to this they forecast a track east of Jamaica, followed by
an eventual northward motion toward eastern Cuba. The ECMWF,
Canadian, UKMET, HFIP Corrected Consensus, and Google DeepMind
forecast a more westerly track that passes south of Jamaica,
followed by a northward turn near or west of the western end of the
island near the end of the forecast period. The HRWF, HMON, and the
other consensus models are in between these and forecast the center
to cross Jamaica. The new forecast continues to follow the more
westerly solution and is little changed from the previous forecast.
It should be noted that regardless of the exact track, the center
of Melissa is likely to pass dangerously close to Jamaica during
the next few days, and it could also come close to the southwestern
peninsula of Haiti.

Melissa is still feeling the effects of about 15 kt of westerly
shear, and between this and the disorganized structure only slow
strengthening is expected during the next 24 h. After that time, a
combination of more favorable upper-level winds and very warm sea
surface temperatures should allow considerable strengthening once
the cyclone gets better organized. The intensity guidance remains
in good agreement on the possibility of rapid intensification as
the center nears Jamaica, and the new intensity forecast is
unchanged from the previous forecast. In addition, the tropical
cyclone is expected to grow significantly in size, and it will
likely be a large and dangerous hurricane towards the end of the
forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged
multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall
resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides, and storm surge continues to increase for Jamaica.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in
Jamaica by Saturday.

2. Haiti: Heavy rainfall will result in catastrophic flash
flooding and landslides across southwestern Haiti by this weekend
into early next week. Extensive damage to roads and buildings is
expected, potentially isolating communities for an extended period
of time. This is a life-threatening situation and immediate
preparations to protect life and property should be taken. Strong
winds could also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon
peninsula of Haiti.

3. Remainder of Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall could
also produce significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
numerous landslides in southern Dominican Republic. Interests in
Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa since the risk of heavy
rainfall, damaging winds, and storm surge appears to be increasing.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 16.2N 75.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 16.4N 75.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 16.8N 75.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 17.2N 75.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 17.3N 76.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 17.4N 76.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 17.5N 77.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 17.7N 78.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 19.3N 78.5W 125 KT 145 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 240236
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0300 UTC FRI OCT 24 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 75.5W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 75.5W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 75.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.4N 75.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.8N 75.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.2N 75.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.3N 76.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.4N 76.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.5N 77.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 55NE 40SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 60SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 17.7N 78.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 65SE 40SW 65NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 80SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 19.3N 78.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 70SE 60SW 65NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 110SW 130NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 75.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 232333
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT THAT THE CENTER OF MELISSA HAS
REFORMED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH...
...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 75.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa. A hurricane warning may be
required for the island of Jamaica tonight or tomorrow.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 75.5 West. Melissa is
moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow northward or
north-northeastward motion is forecast during the next day or so,
followed by a sharp turn westward over the weekend. On the forecast
track, Melissa is expected to move closer to Jamaica and the
southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so,
followed by rapid intensification this weekend. Melissa is
forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by
the end of the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti and Jamaica beginning on late Friday or Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin in Haiti and Jamaica earlier
on Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 8 to 14 inches of rain to the
southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica
through Sunday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is likely beyond Sunday; however, uncertainty in
Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact
totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides are expected in the southern Dominican Republic and
eastern Jamaica, with catastrophic flash flooding and landslides
anticipated in southern Haiti.

Across the northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western
Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Sunday. Flash and
urban flooding will be possible through Sunday. Flooding impacts may
increase across western Jamaica next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of
Jamaica by late Friday into Saturday in areas of onshore winds as
tropical storm conditions begin to reach the area. However, there
is a potential risk of a more significant storm surge, especially
along the south coast of Jamaica, early next week. Due to Melissa’s
slow motion and large forecast uncertainty, it is still too soon to
know exactly how high the storm surge could reach.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 232059
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Like the past couple of days, Melissa's structure has degraded once
again this afternoon, with the low-level circulation yet again
becoming partially exposed on the west side of the deepest
convection. This structure is consistent with a tropical cyclone
that continues to exhibit significant tilt with height in the
downshear direction. A scatterometer pass received after the prior
advisory also indicated the center itself remains quite broad with a
continued asymmetric wind field and large radius of maximum wind.
The initial intensity is being held at 40 kt this advisory, without
a substantial change in the subjective or objective intensity aids
since the last recon plane left the storm. A NOAA-P3 recon mission
will sample the system this evening providing updated detail on
the structure and intensity of the storm.

Melissa continues to move very slowly, with the initial motion a
very slow north-northwest drift at 345/2 kt. The tropical storm's
very slow motion over the last day or so is related to it being
caught between two mid-level ridges, one located to its southeast
over the Lesser Antilles providing northeast steering, and another
mid-level ridge building in northwest from Mexico providing
southwest steering. Their combined influence is roughly canceling
Melissa's overall steering, with a lot of track influences the last
couple of nights related to center reformations to the east and
north. Interestingly, much of the hurricane-regional model guidance
suggests another reformation could occur tonight, and the track
guidance envelope has a distinct bend to the northeast in the 12 to
24 hour forecast points. Given the large convective burst ongoing
just east of the current broad center, it is feasible it may nudge
the short-term track east of due north. After the next day or so,
the mid-level ridge currently over Mexico is expected to expand
poleward of the storm, and is expected to help turn Melissa to the
west. How far north Melissa gets before it turns to the west
continues to remain uncertain. One notable change from this morning
is that the 12z Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI), which was
previously on the northeast side of the track guidance, abruptly
shifted to the southwest side of the envelope, now very close to
the latest 12z ECWMF forecast. In contrast, both the 12z HAFS-A/B
regional hurricane models shifted their tracks further north and
east, related to an overnight center reformation. All these
shuffling guidance tracks highlight the uncertainty of the overall
track forecast, and the latest NHC track was only nudged slightly
southward from this morning, blending the reliable HCCA and GDMI
aids. This forecast track takes Melissa just south of Jamaica in
60-96 hours, though it is worth noting there are guidance aids that
move it near or over Jamaica earlier in the forecast than shown
here.

Melissa's broad and asymmetric structure argues against much
short-term intensification, though the shear that had been plaguing
the system is soon expected to decrease. It will likely take at
least 24 hours for the storm's tilted structure to become better
aligned to take advantage of the other favorable environmental
factors (very warm sea-surface temperatures, sufficently moist
mid-levels). Regardless, the intensity guidance is insistent on
Melissa undergoing a period of rapid intensification in the forecast
period, and all 50 members of the Google DeepMind ensemble show the
system becoming a major hurricane or stronger. The NHC intensity
forecast will follow suit, showing rapid intensification from 36 to
72 h, intensifying Melissa from a tropical storm to a category 4
hurricane in this time period. Remarkably, this is still lower than
some of the hurricane-regional models, and is in best agreement
with the GDMI intensity forecast, which have plenty of members
stronger this the current NHC peak intensity of 125 kt. Over the
forecast period, the tropical cyclone is expected to grow in size
significantly, and it will likely be a large and dangerous hurricane
towards the end of the forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged
multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall
resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides, and storm surge continues to increase for Jamaica.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in
Jamaica by Friday or Saturday.

2. Haiti: Heavy rainfall will result in catastrophic flash
flooding and landslides across southwestern Haiti by this weekend
into early next week. Extensive damage to roads and buildings is
expected, potentially isolating communities for an extended period
of time. This is a life-threatening situation and immediate
preparations to protect life and property should be taken. Strong
winds could also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon
peninsula of Haiti.

3. Remainder of Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall could
also produce significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
numerous landslides in southern Dominican Republic. Interests in
Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa since the risk of heavy
rainfall, damaging winds, and storm surge appears to be increasing.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 15.6N 75.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 15.8N 75.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 16.0N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 16.5N 75.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 16.8N 75.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 17.1N 76.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 17.1N 76.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 17.1N 77.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 18.0N 78.4W 125 KT 145 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 232050
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

...MELISSA CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN INTENSITY...
...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 75.5W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa. A hurricane warning may be
required for the island of Jamaica tonight or tomorrow.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 75.5 West. Melissa is
moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow
northward or north-northeastward motion is forecast during the next
day or so, followed by a sharp turn westward over the weekend. On
the forecast track, Melissa is expected to move closer to Jamaica
and the southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed
by rapid intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to
become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by the end
of the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti and Jamaica beginning on late Friday or Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin in Haiti and Jamaica earlier
on Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 8 to 14 inches of rain to the
southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica
through Sunday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is likely beyond Sunday. However, uncertainty in
Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact
totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides are expected.

Across northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western
Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Sunday. Flash and
urban flooding will be possible through Sunday. Flooding impacts may
increase across western Jamaica next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of
Jamaica by late Friday into Saturday in areas of onshore winds as
tropical storm conditions begin to reach the area. However, there is
potential risk of a more significant storm surge, especially along
the south coast of Jamaica, early next week. Due to Melissa’s slow
motion and large forecast uncertainty, it is still too soon to know
exactly how high the storm surge could reach.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 232049
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
2100 UTC THU OCT 23 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 75.5W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 75.5W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 75.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.8N 75.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.5N 75.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.8N 75.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.1N 76.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.1N 76.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 55NE 40SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 60SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 17.1N 77.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 65SE 40SW 65NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 80SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 18.0N 78.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 70SE 60SW 65NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 110SW 130NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 75.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 231739
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

...MELISSA CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH-NORTHWEST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST COAST OF
HAITI, WITH HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED FOR
HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 75.3W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the southern peninsula
of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to
Port-Au-Prince.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude
15.5 North, longitude 75.3 West. Melissa is moving toward the
north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow northward motion is
forecast during the next day or two, followed by a westward turn
over the weekend. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to
move closer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during
the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed
by more rapid intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to
become a hurricane in a couple of days and a major hurricane by the
end of the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is
1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti and Jamaica beginning on late Friday or Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin in Haiti and Jamaica earlier
on Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 6 to 12 inches of rain to the
southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica
through Sunday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is likely beyond Sunday. However, uncertainty in
Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in the exact
totals. Regardless, significant, life-threatening flash flooding
and numerous landslides are expected.

Across northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western
Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Sunday. Flash and
urban flooding will be possible through Sunday. Flooding impacts may
increase across western Jamaica next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 231449
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Melissa's structure has undergone a metamorphosis this morning.
Convection developed up-shear of the system for the first time after
the prior advisory, with some evidence of loose banding beginning to
take shape. This structure could indicate that the westerly vertical
wind shear that has been affecting the system the last couple of
days is beginning to subside, and could allow the low and mid-level
centers to become better aligned. For now though, the surface
circulation remains rather broad and still tilted to the northeast
with height. The peak 850 mb flight level winds from the ongoing Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance mission have only been 40 to 45 kt. A
blend of the lower aircraft data and higher satellite estimates
results in the initial intensity being adjusted to 40 kt for this
advisory.

The center of the tropical storm may have reformed northward from
last night, as the last several aircraft fixes indicates a very
slow north-northwestward drift, estimated at 345/2 kt. As has been
emphasized over the last few discussions, Melissa is likely to
continue moving very slowly as it drifts northward towards a
weakness in the mid-level ridging produced by an upper-level trough
over the Bahamas. This trough is expected to lift out over the next
24-48 hours, allowing a narrow mid-level ridge to build back in from
the west. In response, the track guidance shows Melissa turning
westward between 48 to 96 h, but the ridge remains centered to the
northwest, likely explaining why the forward motion is expected to
remain quite slow. Compared to 24 h ago, the guidance is in better
agreement on this westward turn, but how sharp this turn is, and how
far northward Melissa makes it in the meantime still remains
uncertain. A variety of model solutions show Melissa south of
Jamaica (ECMWF), over Jamaica (GDMI), or north of Jamaica (HMON).
The track forecast this cycle continues to split the difference
between the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and GDMI
solutions, and is shifted a bit north compared to the previous track
forecast.

The shear over Melissa has been gradually decreasing, now under 20
kt in the latest ECMWF-SHIPS guidance. This shear is expected to
decrease further, remaining between 10-15 kt over the remainder of
the forecast period. Other environmental favors are also very
favorable, with 30-31 C sea-surface temperatures, and sufficient
mid-level moisture. The main intensity challenge is predicting when
Melissa becomes a more symmetric and vertical aligned tropical
cyclone. Given the improved structure seen on satellite, it seems
the time-table for this process to occur has moved up in the
forecast period. Assuming Melissa can then establish an inner core
in the next 48 hours, a period of rapid intensification also appears
increasingly likely, sometime in the 2 to 3 day period. The latest
NHC intensity forecast now makes Melissa a hurricane in 48 hours, a
major hurricane in 72 h, and a peak intensity of 115 kt in 96 hours.
The end intensity could be conservative if Melissa ends up further
south of Jamaica with less land interaction, as suggested by the 00z
ECMWF and HAFS guidance. Over this period, the tropical cyclone is
expected to grow in size, and likely be a large and dangerous
hurricane towards the end of the forecast period.

Key Messages:

1. Melissa is expected to meander over the central Caribbean Sea for
several days and become a major hurricane by late this weekend or
early next week. Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a
prolonged multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy
rainfall resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides, and coastal flooding continues to increase for Jamaica.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in
Jamaica by Friday or Saturday.

2. Strong winds could also potentially last for a day or more over
the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti. In addition, interests in Cuba and
the rest of Haiti are urged to continue monitoring the latest
forecasts for Melissa.

3. In addition to Jamaica, Melissa will produce heavy rainfall
across portions of the southern Dominican Republic and southern
Haiti through this weekend and continuing into next week. This
rainfall will result in significant, life-threatening flash flooding
and numerous landslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 15.4N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 15.9N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 16.3N 74.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 16.7N 74.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 17.1N 75.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 17.3N 75.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 17.4N 76.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 17.4N 77.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 17.7N 78.4W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 231447
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

...MELISSA REORGANIZING AND EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING SOON...
...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 74.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 74.9 West. Melissa is
moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow
northward motion is forecast during the next day or two, followed by
a westward turn over the weekend. On the forecast track, Melissa
is expected to move closer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion
of Haiti during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradually strengthening is forecast over the next day or so,
followed by more rapid intensification this weekend. Melissa is
forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days and a major
hurricane by the end of the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti and Jamaica beginning on late Friday or Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin in Jamaica earlier on Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 6 to 12 inches of rain to the
southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica
through Sunday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is likely beyond Sunday. However, uncertainty in
Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in the exact
totals. Regardless, significant, life-threatening flash flooding
and numerous landslides are expected.

Across northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western
Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Sunday. Flash and
urban flooding will be possible through Sunday. Flooding impacts may
increase across western Jamaica next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 231445
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1500 UTC THU OCT 23 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 74.9W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 60SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 74.9W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 74.9W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.9N 75.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.3N 74.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.7N 74.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.1N 75.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.3N 75.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.4N 76.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 17.4N 77.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 65NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 80SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 17.7N 78.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 70SE 60SW 65NW.
34 KT...180NE 190SE 130SW 140NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 74.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 231156
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

...HURRICANE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 74.9W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
island, and has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude
15.5 North, longitude 74.9 West. Melissa is moving toward the
northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northwest or north motion is
forecast during the next couple of days, followed by a westward turn
over the weekend. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to
move closer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during
the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so, but
significant strengthening is expected by late Friday and over the
weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti and Jamaica beginning on Friday afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin in Jamaica earlier on Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to the
southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica
through Sunday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is possible beyond Sunday; however, uncertainty in
Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact
totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides are possible.

Across Puerto Rico, northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and
western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Sunday.
Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least Sunday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 230838
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Melissa continues to struggle in strong westerly vertical wind
shear. Surface observations and Air Force aircraft data show that
the system is vertically tilted with the low-level center partially
exposed and located nearly 100 miles west of the mid-level center
that is apparent in satellite images. The wind field of the storm
also remains lopsided, with most of the strong winds confined to the
eastern half of the circulation. The initial intensity is held at
45 kt, but this is probably generous based on the aircraft data and
an ASCAT pass from last evening.

The storm has been crawling and moving erratically. In general,
Melissa is likely to inch northward during the next 36 to 48 hours
as the storm is influenced by a weakness in the subtropical ridge.
By late Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to build eastward to
the north of the storm, and that pattern change should induce a slow
westward or west-northwestward motion over the weekend. By early
next week, that ridge is expected to move away as a large-scale
trough amplifies over the eastern U.S. This change in the steering
flow should cause Melissa to begin to gain more latitude again by
the end of the forecast period. Given the complex steering pattern
and continued model differences in the predicted vertical depth of
Melissa, there remains a significant spread in the deterministic
guidance and the ensemble solutions. One thing we feel confident
about is that Melissa is likely to move slowly and remain in the
vicinity of Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba for several days. The
NHC track forecast is shifted a little to the right of the previous
one, trending toward a blend of the latest Google DeepMind ensemble
mean and HCCA solution.

The current westerly vertical wind shear over Melissa is expected to
linger for about another day, and that should keep the storm at
around the same intensity during that time. However, after that,
the upper-level wind pattern will gradually become more conducive
while the system remains over the very warm waters of the central
and northwestern Caribbean Sea. These conditions should allow
Melissa to become vertically aligned and strengthen significantly.
In fact, rapid intensification appears likely this weekend and
early next week. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope from 12 to 72 hours, but leans toward the
upper end of the guidance at days 4 and 5. As Melissa intensifies,
its wind field is expected to grow and become more symmetric.

Key Messages:

1. Melissa is expected to meander over the central Caribbean Sea for
several days and is forecast to become a major hurricane by late
this weekend or early next week. Interests in Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba,
and the Dominican Republic are urged to continue monitoring the
latest forecasts.

2. Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged period of
strong winds, possibly lasting for a day or more, is increasing for
Jamaica and the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong winds
could begin in these areas on Friday and continue increasing over
the weekend.

3. Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through the weekend,
bringing a risk of significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
numerous landslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 15.0N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 15.2N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 15.6N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 16.0N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 16.4N 75.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 16.6N 75.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 16.7N 76.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 16.9N 77.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 17.1N 78.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 230838
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

...MELISSA CRAWLING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING TO
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 74.9W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 74.9 West. Melissa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow
northwest or north motion is forecast during the next couple of
days, followed by a westward turn over the weekend. On the forecast
track, Melissa is expected to be nearer to Jamaica and the
southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so,
but significant strengthening is expected by late Friday and over
the weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple
of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti beginning on Friday. Tropical storm conditions could begin in
Jamaica on Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to the
southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica
through Sunday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is possible beyond Sunday; however, uncertainty in
Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact
totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides are possible.

Across Puerto Rico, northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and
western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Sunday.
Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least Sunday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 230837
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0900 UTC THU OCT 23 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 74.9W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....140NE 60SE 40SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 74.9W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 74.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.2N 75.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.6N 75.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.4N 75.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.6N 75.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.7N 76.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 16.9N 77.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 17.1N 78.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 140SW 150NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 74.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 230535
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

...MELISSA CRAWLING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING TO
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 74.7W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 74.7 West. Melissa is
moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow forward speed
and a gradual turn to the northwest or north-northwest is forecast
during the next day or two, followed by a westward turn by the
weekend. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to be nearer
to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or
two, with more substantial intensification expected by the
weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti beginning on Friday. Tropical storm conditions could begin in
Jamaica tonight or on Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to the
southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica
through Saturday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday. However, uncertainty
in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact
totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides are possible.

Across Puerto Rico, northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and
western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Saturday.
Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least Saturday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 230401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 23.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 75.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.10.2025 0 14.5N 75.0W 1005 33
1200UTC 23.10.2025 12 14.9N 74.5W 1005 33
0000UTC 24.10.2025 24 16.0N 75.2W 1004 34
1200UTC 24.10.2025 36 16.1N 74.8W 1004 30
0000UTC 25.10.2025 48 16.6N 74.3W 1004 34
1200UTC 25.10.2025 60 16.7N 74.8W 1005 30
0000UTC 26.10.2025 72 16.9N 74.8W 1004 30
1200UTC 26.10.2025 84 17.1N 75.7W 1005 29
0000UTC 27.10.2025 96 17.5N 78.0W 1005 26
1200UTC 27.10.2025 108 17.0N 78.6W 1005 24
0000UTC 28.10.2025 120 17.6N 79.5W 1004 24
1200UTC 28.10.2025 132 17.9N 80.9W 1005 24
0000UTC 29.10.2025 144 17.9N 82.2W 1005 23
1200UTC 29.10.2025 156 18.7N 82.9W 1005 25
0000UTC 30.10.2025 168 19.5N 82.5W 1004 28

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 29.8N 91.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.10.2025 84 29.8N 91.8W 1006 37
0000UTC 27.10.2025 96 30.7N 89.7W 1008 32
1200UTC 27.10.2025 108 31.6N 87.9W 1008 26
0000UTC 28.10.2025 120 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 230400


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 230236
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations and
satellite imagery indicate that Melissa remains a sheared tropical
cyclone, With The low-level center of the storm situated to the
west and northwest of the main areas of thunderstorms. The
convection continue to be very deep with cloud tops to -80 deg C or
colder. There is some evidence of a convective banding feature over
the southern portion of the circulation, but the overall cloud
pattern is not well organized. Upper-level outflow continues to be
restricted to the west of the storm due to the west-northwesterly
shear. Tail Doppler data from the NOAA aircraft show a
significant eastward tilt of the vortex with height. Observations
from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the central pressure is not
falling at this time, and that the maximum winds remain near 45 kt.
This is also supported by objective satellite-derived intensity
estimates from UW-CIMSS.

Center fixes from the aircraft show that Melissa is still moving
very slowly, at around 270/2 kt. In the short term, the cyclone is
expected to turn northwestward to northward in a weakness in the
mid-level ridge. In 48 hours or so, a weak ridge is expected to
build to the north of Melissa which should induce a westward turn.
Around the end of the forecast period, the ridge is expected to
weaken and the system is predicted to turn to the right. The
official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and
lies between the latest HCCA corrected consensus and the simple
dynamical model consensus. This is somewhat west of the latest
Google DeepMind ensemble mean forecast. There continues to be a
large spread in the guidance models, indicating less than normal
confidence in the track forecast, especially around day 5.

Melissa is likely to continue to be influenced by significant
westerly vertical wind shear during the next day or two, so only
slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Later in
the forecast period, the global models show a relaxation of the
shear. This, along with the very high oceanic heat content over
the area, could result in significant strengthening. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and very close
to the HCCA and FSU Superensemble guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Melissa is forecast to meander over the central Caribbean Sea and
could potentially become a major hurricane by late this weekend or
early next week. Interests in Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, and the
Dominican Republic are urged to continue monitoring the latest
forecasts.

2. Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged period of
strong winds, possibly lasting for a day or more, is increasing for
Jamaica and the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong
winds could begin in these areas as early as late Thursday or
Friday and continue increasing over the weekend.

3. Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through this weekend,
bringing a risk of significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
numerous landslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 14.3N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 14.7N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 15.0N 75.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 15.3N 75.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 15.7N 75.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 16.0N 75.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 16.1N 76.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 16.0N 77.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 16.5N 78.5W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 230235
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 74.6W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 60SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 74.6W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 74.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.7N 74.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.0N 75.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.3N 75.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.7N 75.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.0N 75.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.1N 76.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 16.0N 77.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 16.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 140SW 150NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 74.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 230235
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

...MELISSA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 74.6W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 74.6 West. Melissa is
moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow forward speed
and a gradual turn to the northwest or north-northwest is forecast
during the next couple of days, followed by a westward turn by this
weekend. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to be nearer
to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti later this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Melissa could become a hurricane by Friday, with more substantial
intensification forecast by this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti beginning on Friday. Tropical storm conditions could begin in
Jamaica late on Thursday or on Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to the
southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica
through Saturday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday. However, uncertainty
in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact
totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides are possible.

Across Puerto Rico, northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and
western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Saturday.
Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least Saturday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 222354
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

...MELISSA MOVING VERY SLOWLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
AND JAMAICA INTO THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 74.5W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 14.3
North, longitude 74.5 West. Melissa is drifting toward the west
near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow forward speed and a gradual turn to
the northwest or north-northwest is forecast during the next couple
of days, followed by a westward turn by this weekend. On the
forecast track, Melissa is expected to be nearer to Jamaica and
the southwestern portion of Haiti later this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few
days, and Melissa could become a hurricane by Friday, with more
substantial intensification forecast by this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti beginning on Friday. Tropical storm conditions could begin in
Jamaica late on Thursday or on Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to the
southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica
through Saturday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday. However, uncertainty
in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact
totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides are possible.

Across Puerto Rico, northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and
western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Saturday.
Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least Saturday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 222042
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Like yesterday, Melissa's structure has come unglued this
afternoon, with the low-level circulation becoming exposed to
the west of the bursting deep convection. While that convection
continues to have very cold cloud tops, it lacks much organization,
remaining parked down-shear of the storm with 20-30 kt of
west-northwesterly shear undercutting the outflow layer. This
disjointed structure is nicely exhibited on an 1825 UTC AMSR2 pass.
While the objective intensity estimates in general are a little
higher than this morning, the subjective Dvorak estimates are lower,
and given the disjointed structure of Melissa, it favors holding the
intensity at 45 kt this advisory. Another Air Force Reserve and the
first NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission will be in the storm this
evening to provide more structural information.

Melissa has taken a short-term jog westward as it became exposed,
but now appears to be resuming a very slow west-northwestward motion
at 290/2 kt. The track reasoning remains similar to the previous
forecast over the next 2-3 days, with the forecast storm structure
likely to have a significant role in the future track. Dynamical
models that show the storm becoming more vertically aligned and deep
(GFS, HWRF) show Melissa turning north or northeastward due to
westerly deep-layer steering into a weakness induced by a broad
upper-level trough located over the Bahamas. However, models that
show Melissa remaining more shallow and misaligned (ECMWF, HAFS-A/B)
maintain a northwestward or north-northwestward component of
motion. Compared to this morning, the track guidance has shifted
slower and farther west, possibly due to the farther west initial
position. The NHC track has been shifted westward and is also a
little southward after 60 h, but remains farther north and east of
the ECMWF and HAFS models this cycle, and is roughly in between the
HFIP consensus approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean
(GDMI). This track forecast favors the models that keep Melissa weak
and less prone to the deep-layer steering over the next 24-48 hours.
However, this remains a low confidence track forecast other than
Melissa maintaining a slow motion for the majority of the period.

The current vortex misalignment of Melissa is a significant
impediment to short-term intensification, and the vertical wind
shear is expected to maintain this tilted structure over the next
24-36 hours, although I can't preclude any center reformations
down-shear, like what occurred last night. After this period, the
ECWMF-SHIPS guidance now indicates the ongoing westerly shear will
decrease to 10-15 knots, and the storm remains over very warm
sea-surface temperatures and high oceanic heat content. The
hurricane-regional models have all responded by showing significant
intensification after the vortex becomes vertically aligned,
sometime in the 60-96 h period, though timing when this may occur is
challenging. The intensity guidance is once again higher than the
previous cycle, and the NHC intensity forecast was raised once
again, showing Melissa becoming a hurricane in 72 h, rapidly
intensifying into a major hurricane by 96 h, with additional
intensification likely thereafter. This forecast is in the best
agreement with the HCCA intensity aid, but it is worth noting it's
under the latest HAFS-A/B and HMON forecasts. Unfortunately, it is
becoming increasingly likely that Melissa will become a large and
dangerous hurricane by the end of the forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Melissa is forecast to meander over the central Caribbean Sea and
could potentially become a major hurricane by early next week.
Interests in Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, and the Dominican Republic are
urged to continue monitoring the latest forecasts.

2. Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged period of
strong winds, possibly lasting for a day or more, is increasing for
Jamaica and the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong
winds could begin in these areas as early as late Thursday or
Friday and continue increasing over the weekend.

3. Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through this weekend,
bringing a risk of significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
numerous landslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 14.4N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 14.6N 74.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 14.9N 74.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 15.2N 74.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 15.6N 74.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 16.1N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 16.3N 75.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 16.2N 76.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 16.0N 78.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 222038
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

...MELISSA MEANDERING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
AND JAMAICA INTO THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 74.3W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 74.3 West. Melissa is
moving slowly toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow
forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest or north-northwest
is forecast during the next couple of days, followed by a turn back
westward by this weekend. On the forecast track, Melissa is
expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti
later this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Melissa could become a hurricane by Friday, with more substantial
intensification forecast by this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti beginning on Friday. Tropical storm conditions could begin in
Jamaica late on Thursday or Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to the
southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica
through Saturday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday. However, uncertainty
in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact
totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides are possible.

Across Puerto Rico, northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and
western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Saturday.
Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least Saturday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 222037
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
2100 UTC WED OCT 22 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 74.3W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 60SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 74.3W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 74.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.6N 74.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.9N 74.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.2N 74.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.6N 74.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.1N 75.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.3N 75.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 16.2N 76.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 16.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 140SW 150NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 74.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 221738
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

...MELISSA REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND JOGGING SLOWLY WESTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
AND JAMAICA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 74.0W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude
14.3 North, longitude 74.0 West. Melissa is moving slowly toward the
west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow forward speed and a gradual turn to
the northwest and north is forecast during the next couple of days,
followed by a turn back westward by this weekend. On the forecast
track, Melissa is expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern
portion of Haiti later this week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual strengthening is anticipated during the next few
days, and Melissa could become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti beginning late on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could
begin in Jamaica late on Thursday or Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to
the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica
through Saturday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday; however, uncertainty in
Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact
totals. Significant flash flooding and landslides are possible.

Across Puerto Rico, northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and
western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Saturday.
Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least Saturday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 221455
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

While Melissa continues to produce bursting convection on satellite
imagery, with very cold cloud tops down to -95C, there is little
evidence these convective bands are wrapping around the center.
West-northwesterly shear of 20 to 25 kt is currently preventing the
low-level and mid-level circulation centers from aligning. This
downshear tilt with height has also been observed by the latest Air
Force Reconnaissance mission, which reported significant winds at
the surface in their most recent 850 mb center drop. The initial
intensity for this advisory is held at 45 kt, taking a blend of
recon observations which had a peak wind of 52 kt at 850 mb, and
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, ADT, and D-MINT. The wind
field of Melissa also remains very asymmetric, as evidence of a
recent 1040z RCM-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar pass showing the bulk of
tropical-storm-force winds east of the center.

The tropical storm has slowed down to a crawl this morning, with the
estimated motion at 300/2 kt. The track forecast remains challenging
today, and strongly related to the storm's structure in the
short-term. For the next 12-24 hours, Melissa is forecast to move
very slowly to the northwest as it attempts to move into a weakness
produced by an broad upper-level trough centered over the Bahamas.
Whether or not it turns more rightward into this weakness is related
to the vertical depth the various model guidance is depicting. The
06z GFS run, which is the model that has been on the right side of
the guidance envelope for days, shows a more vertically coherent
system over the next 24-48 hours, and causes Melissa to abruptly
turn northeastward over the next 48 hours. While this appears to be
an outlier solution, the Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) also
shows this northeastward motion, and a significant fraction of its
ensemble members show the Melissa making landfall on the Island of
Hispaniola. However, the remainder of the track guidance, including
the ECMWF and its ensemble mean, suggest that Melissa will remain
misaligned and move more slowly north-northwest over the next couple
of days. The NHC track solution slightly favors the latter
scenarios, lying just east of the ECMWF mean, out of respect of the
reliable GDMI aid. After about 60 h, mid-level ridging begins to
build back in to the north, and most of the guidance responds by
showing a sharp turn westward, albeit still at a snail's pace. The
overall track guidance, GFS and GDMI excluded, has shifted left this
cycle beyond 72 h, and the NHC track was shifted in that direction,
but not as far south and west as the HAFS-A/B regional models. It
goes without saying, this is a very challenging track forecast.

The intensity forecast has its own share of challenges. At least in
the short-term, vertical wind shear is expected to persist between
20 to 30 kt, and will likely prevent Melissa from becoming fully
aligned and taking advantage over the very warm 30-31C sea surface
temperatures. After about 48 hours, the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS
guidance shows the shear decreasing gradually, but the timing on
when the system becomes more vertically coherent varies among both
the global and hurricane-regional model guidance. Most of the
guidance shows significant or even rapid intensification in days
3-5, and the NHC intensity forecast was raised once again during
this time frame, but not as high as the HCCA or hurricane-regional
models due to continuity constraints to the previous forecast. The
day 5 forecast now shows Melissa becoming a major hurricane, and
further upward adjustments may be necessary in subsequent cycles.
The intensity forecast is also more uncertain than usual, in large
part related to the track uncertainty.

Key Messages:

1. Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through this weekend,
bringing a risk of significant flash flooding and landslides.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible in the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. A Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and
property should be completed by Thursday.

3. There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity
forecast of Melissa. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and Cuba
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 14.4N 73.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 14.8N 73.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 15.2N 74.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 15.6N 74.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 16.0N 74.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 16.3N 74.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 16.5N 74.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 16.6N 75.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 16.4N 77.4W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 221450
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

...MELISSA DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
AND JAMAICA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 73.6W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude
14.4 North, longitude 73.6 West. Melissa is moving slowly toward the
west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A continued slow forward speed
and a gradual turn to the northwest and north-northwest is expected
during the next couple of days, followed by a turn back westward by
the end of the week. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to
approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti later this
week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual strengthening is anticipated during the next few days,
and Melissa could become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is
1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti beginning late on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could
begin in Jamaica late on Thursday or Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to
the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica
through Saturday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday; however, uncertainty in
Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact
totals. Significant flash flooding and landslides are possible.

Across Puerto Rico, northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and
western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Saturday.
Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least Saturday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 221448
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1500 UTC WED OCT 22 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 73.6W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 60SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 73.6W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 73.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.8N 73.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.2N 74.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.6N 74.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.0N 74.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.3N 74.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.5N 74.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 16.6N 75.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 16.4N 77.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 55SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 140NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 73.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 221148
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

...RECON FINDS MELISSA MOVING VERY SLOWLY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
AND JAMAICA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 73.5W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located by Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft near latitude
14.3 North, longitude 73.5 West. Melissa is moving very slowly
toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow forward speed
and a gradual turn to the northwest and north-northwest is expected
during the next few days. On the forecast track, Melissa is
expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti
later this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual strengthening is anticipated during the next few days,
and Melissa could become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data
is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti beginning late on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could
begin in Jamaica late on Thursday or Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to
the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica
through Saturday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday; however, uncertainty in
Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact
totals. Significant flash flooding and landslides are possible.

Across the northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western
Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected through Saturday. For
Aruba and Puerto Rico, 1 to 3 inches are expected through the same
period. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least
Saturday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 220859
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been
extremely useful in showing that the center of Melissa has
re-formed to the northeast of the previous center. Earlier
scatterometer data had already shown an elongated circulation, and
the very deep convection combined with the moderate westerly shear
has caused the re-formation. The initial intensity is kept at 45
kt, a compromise between somewhat lower aircraft winds but also
lower central pressure, now at 1000 mb.

The initial motion is estimated, with low confidence, to be 295/6.
Melissa is forecast to move very slowly to the northwest and
north-northwest during the next few days into a weakness by an
approaching mid-latitude trough. There continues to be a very
large uncertainty on whether the storm would turn more into the
weakness and threaten Haiti or Cuba, or whether it would turn
more westward to the south of Jamaica as a ridge rebuilds over the
Bahamas, with reliable models in either camp. This appears to be
somewhat tied to the storm's structure, with the less vertically
coherent model solutions generally ending up on the western side of
the track envelope this weekend, and stronger initial storm
representations on the northeastern side. With such a distinct
track bifurcation noted in the guidance (excluding the consensus
aids) and dependence on structure, this should be considered an
extremely uncertain forecast, and significant changes could be
required. The model trends have been favoring the more westward
solutions recently, and the official forecast is nudged in that
direction at long range.

Melissa is likely to be encountering moderate wind shear for the
next few days, counteracted by the very warm and moist conditions
in the Caribbean Sea. This pattern favors slow intensification
through that time. At long range, some relaxation of this shear is
anticipated with the more equatorward storm solutions showing the
most conducive environment. The new NHC wind speed prediction
is much higher than the last one by day 5, but still lower than the
model consensus due to continuity constraints. While there is
still a large forecast intensity uncertainty, the chances of a major
hurricane increase if this forecast were to trend farther southwest
at long range, similar to many of the recent regional hurricane
model forecasts.


Key Messages:

1. Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through this weekend,
bringing a risk of significant flash flooding and landslides.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible in the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. A Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and
property should be completed by Thursday.

3. There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity
forecast of Melissa. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and Cuba
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 14.3N 73.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 14.7N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 15.2N 74.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 15.6N 75.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 16.0N 75.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 16.3N 75.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 16.7N 75.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 17.0N 76.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 17.0N 76.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 220854
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

...MELISSA RE-FORMS TO THE NORTHEAST...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
AND JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 73.5W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 14.3 North, longitude 73.5 West. Melissa is moving toward
the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A decrease in forward
speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and north-northwest is
expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Melissa
is expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of
Haiti later this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual strengthening is anticipated during the next few days,
and Melissa could become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches)
based on Air Force dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti beginning late on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could
begin in Jamaica late on Thursday or Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to
the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern
Jamaica through Saturday, with locally higher amounts possible.
Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday; however,
uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence
in exact totals. Significant flash flooding and landslides are
possible.

Across the northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western
Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected through Saturday. For
Aruba and Puerto Rico, 1 to 3 inches are expected through the same
period. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least
Saturday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 220853
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0900 UTC WED OCT 22 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 73.5W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 75SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 73.5W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 73.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.7N 74.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.2N 74.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.6N 75.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.0N 75.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.3N 75.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.7N 75.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 17.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 17.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 73.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 220549
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING MELISSA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 74.0W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
estimated near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 74.0 West. While the
storm has recently been nearly stationary, Melissa is expected to
move toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) overnight. A decrease
in forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and north is
expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Melissa
is expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of
Haiti later this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti beginning late on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could
begin in Jamaica on Thursday or Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is forecast to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to
southern Haiti and the southern Dominican Republic through Friday,
with locally higher amounts possible. Across eastern Jamaica, 4 to
8 inches of rain are expected, also with locally higher amounts
possible. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Friday;
however, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces
confidence in exact totals. Significant flash flooding and
landslides are possible.

Across the northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti, 2 to 4
inches of rain are expected through Friday. For Aruba, western
Jamaica, and Puerto Rico, 1 to 3 inches are expected through the
same period. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at
least Friday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 220400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 22.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 73.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.10.2025 0 13.9N 73.6W 1006 33
1200UTC 22.10.2025 12 14.1N 74.3W 1006 33
0000UTC 23.10.2025 24 14.8N 75.0W 1005 32
1200UTC 23.10.2025 36 16.2N 75.9W 1005 34
0000UTC 24.10.2025 48 15.4N 76.2W 1005 29
1200UTC 24.10.2025 60 16.3N 76.9W 1006 29
0000UTC 25.10.2025 72 15.6N 77.6W 1005 25
1200UTC 25.10.2025 84 16.2N 78.5W 1006 25
0000UTC 26.10.2025 96 15.3N 80.2W 1005 23
1200UTC 26.10.2025 108 15.3N 81.5W 1004 24
0000UTC 27.10.2025 120 15.7N 82.9W 1004 22
1200UTC 27.10.2025 132 16.3N 84.4W 1005 21
0000UTC 28.10.2025 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 33.9N 79.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.10.2025 144 33.9N 79.3W 1007 34
1200UTC 28.10.2025 156 36.4N 74.3W 1004 42
0000UTC 29.10.2025 168 37.8N 72.9W 1003 40


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 220400


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 220400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 73.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.10.2025 13.9N 73.6W WEAK
12UTC 22.10.2025 14.1N 74.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.10.2025 14.8N 75.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.10.2025 16.2N 75.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.10.2025 15.4N 76.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.10.2025 16.3N 76.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.10.2025 15.6N 77.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.10.2025 16.2N 78.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.10.2025 15.3N 80.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.10.2025 15.3N 81.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.10.2025 15.7N 82.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.10.2025 16.3N 84.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.10.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 33.9N 79.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.10.2025 33.9N 79.3W WEAK
12UTC 28.10.2025 36.4N 74.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2025 37.8N 72.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 220400


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 220231
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Melissa continues to be under the influence of significant westerly
vertical wind shear. The center of the storm appears to be exposed
to the west of a cluster of very deep convection, and overall the
system is not very well organized with poorly-defined banding
features. The advisory intensity is held at 45 kt in agreement
with a Dvorak classification from TAFB, though objective intensity
estimates from UW-CIMSS are somewhat lower. An Air Force Reserve
Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
tropical cyclone in a few hours and should provide a good intensity
estimate. Melissa remains an asymmetric storm with most of the
strong winds over the northeastern and eastern portions of the
circulation.

The system continues to move a little southwest of the previous
track with an initial motion estimate of 270/11 kt. The track
forecast for the next several days remains quite challenging.
Melissa is likely to remain in a region of weak steering currents
for most of this week. Once again, the GFS model looks like an
outlier with a track across Hispaniola by this weekend and most of
the other guidance much farther south and west. The future track
depends, among other things, on how strong and vertically deep
Melissa will become while it is over the Caribbean, and how much a
mid-level trough digs along the U.S. east coast during the next
5 days. A stronger tropical cyclone would likely move more
northward or northeastward than a weak system would. The new
official forecast is shifted somewhat west of the previous one and
is in good agreement with the dynamical model consensus and the FSU
Superensemble solution. The latest Google DeepMind ensemble mean is
just a little to the left of the official forecast.

Water vapor imagery continues to show upper-level westerlies ahead
of Melissa, and the shear is not likely to decrease much over the
next few days. The SHIPS guidance using the large-scale predictors
from the ECMWF model indicates some relaxation of the shear in 3-5
days. The official intensity forecast, like the previous one,
shows strengthening into a hurricane by the latter part of the
forecast period. This is in good agreement with the LGEM guidance.
However it should be noted that this is a low-confidence intensity
forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through this weekend,
bringing a risk of significant flash flooding and landslides.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible in the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. A Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and
property should be completed by Thursday.

3. There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity
forecast of Melissa. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and Cuba
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 14.2N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 14.6N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 15.1N 75.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 15.6N 75.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 15.9N 75.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 16.3N 75.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 16.9N 75.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 17.5N 76.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 17.6N 76.2W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 220231
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 74.0W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 74.0 West. Melissa is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A decrease in forward
speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and north is expected
during the next few days. On the forecast track, Melissa is
expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti
later this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti beginning late on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could
begin in Jamaica on Thursday or Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is forecast to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to
southern Haiti and the southern Dominican Republic through Friday,
with locally higher amounts possible. Across eastern Jamaica, 4 to
8 inches of rain is expected, also with locally higher amounts
possible. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Friday;
however, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces
confidence in exact totals. Significant flash flooding and
landslides are possible.

Across the northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti, 2 to 4
inches of rain is expected through Friday. For Aruba, western
Jamaica, and Puerto Rico, 1 to 3 inches is expected through the same
period. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least
Friday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 220230
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0300 UTC WED OCT 22 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 74.0W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 0SE 0SW 90W.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 74.0W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 73.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.6N 74.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.1N 75.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.6N 75.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.9N 75.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.3N 75.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.9N 75.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 17.5N 76.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 30SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 17.6N 76.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 74.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 212342
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 73.4W
ABOUT 310 MI...505 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 73.4 West. Melissa is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A decrease in forward
speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and north is expected
during the next few days. On the forecast track, Melissa is
expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti
later this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Melissa can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti beginning on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could begin
in Jamaica on Thursday or Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa will bring heavy rainfall to Haiti and the
Dominican Republic, with totals of 5 to 10 inches expected through
Friday. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Friday, but
uncertainty regarding the track and forward speed of Melissa
reduces confidence in exact amounts. Areas of significant flash
flooding and mudslides are possible.

Over Aruba, Puerto Rico and Jamaica rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is
expected through Friday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible
across Puerto Rico through at least Friday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 212035
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Satellite data indicate that Melissa is struggling in strong shear,
which has been the theme for many systems over the deep tropics this
year. The low-level center of the storm is exposed to the west of
the main area of thunderstorms. Air Force Hurricane Hunters have
been investigating the system this afternoon and found that the
minimum pressure is around 1003 mb. Based on their observations,
ASCAT passes, and Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is held at
45 kt. Melissa's wind field is also quite asymmetric, with most of
the tropical-storm-force winds occurring on the system's east side.
Some of the outermost northern bands are approaching Hispaniola, and
these heavy rains are expected to spread across that island during
the next couple of days.

Melissa is a little south of the previous track and it continues to
move westward at about 13 kt. There has been no change to the track
forecast scenario, which remains complicated. Over the next couple
of days, there is fair confidence that Melissa should slow down and
gradually turn to the northwest or north and approach Haiti and
Jamaica late this week. The motion after that appears to be linked
to how strong and vertically aligned the system gets, and
that is when the models diverge. If Melissa organizes like the GFS
predicts, it could turn northeastward into the weakness in the
ridge and move over Hispaniola. Conversely, if Melissa remains
sheared and lopsided, it will likely stall and eventually drift
westward as a ridge builds north of it. Given the expected
continued shear, the NHC track forecast leans toward the latter
scenario. This prediction is a little left of the previous forecast
and remains a blend of the latest Google DeepMind ensemble mean,
the corrected consensus aid HCCA, and simple consensus TVCA.

Although the ocean is very warm, the models suggest that the
vertical wind shear could persist over Melissa during the next few
days. In addition, there is also some dry air in the storm's
vicinity. Based on these mixed signals, the strengthening trend is
expected to be slow. In fact, the new guidance supports nudging the
short term intensity down a bit. If Melissa remains over the
Caribbean late this week and over the weekend, the upper-level winds
could become more conducive for more significant strengthening.
The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA model.

Key Messages:

1. Melissa is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
significant flash flooding and the danger of landslides to portions
of Haiti and the Dominican Republic through the weekend.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible in the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. A Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and
property should be completed by Thursday.

3. There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity
forecast of Melissa. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and Cuba
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 14.2N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 14.5N 73.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 15.0N 74.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 15.5N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 16.1N 75.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 16.5N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 16.9N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 17.3N 75.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 17.5N 75.2W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 212034
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
2100 UTC TUE OCT 21 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 73.0W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 73.0W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 72.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.5N 73.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.0N 74.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.1N 75.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.9N 75.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 17.3N 75.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 30SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 17.5N 75.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 73.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 212034
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 73.0W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 73.0 West. Melissa is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A decrease in
forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and north is
expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Melissa
is expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of
Haiti later this week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Melissa can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti beginning on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could begin
in Jamaica on Thursday or Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa will bring heavy rainfall to Haiti and the
Dominican Republic, with totals of 5 to 10 inches expected through
Friday. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Friday, but
uncertainty regarding the track and forward speed of Melissa
reduces confidence in exact amounts. Areas of significant flash
flooding and mudslides are possible.

Over Aruba, Puerto Rico and Jamaica rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is
expected through Friday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible
across Puerto Rico through at least Friday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 211739
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING MELISSA..
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD HISPANIOLA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 72.6W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southern coast of Haiti from the border with Dominican Republic
to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 72.6 West. Melissa is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A decrease in forward
speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and north is expected
during the next few days. On the forecast track, Melissa is
expected to approach the southwestern portion of Haiti and Jamaica
later this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Melissa can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti beginning on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could begin
in Jamaica on Thursday or Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa will bring heavy rainfall to Haiti and the
Dominican Republic, with totals of 5 to 10 inches expected through
Friday. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Friday, but
uncertainty regarding the track and forward speed of Melissa
reduces confidence in exact amounts. Areas of significant flash
flooding and mudslides are possible.

Over Aruba, Puerto Rico and Jamaica rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is
expected through Friday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible
across Puerto Rico through at least Friday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 211445
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Satellite images, regional Caribbean radar data, and surface
observations indicate that invest 98L has developed a well-defined
center and organized deep convection to be designated a tropical
cyclone. A ship report that recently passed near the center of the
system reported a minimum pressure of about 1003 mb. Satellite
imagery shows the system is asymmetric, with the low-level center
near the western edge of the central dense overcast. The initial
intensity is set at 45 kt, based on a blend of the latest satellite
intensity estimates, marking the formation of Tropical Storm
Melissa. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system this afternoon, and their data should provide
a better assessment of Melissa's strength and structure.

The system was moving very quickly westward over the past several
days, but it has slowed down significantly this morning, which has
likely helped Melissa form. The initial motion is estimated to be
280/12 kt. Melissa should continue to slow down and gradually turn
to the northwest and then north during the next couple of days
toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This motion will likely
take the storm very near the southwestern tip of Haiti and Jamaica
by Thursday. After that time, the guidance diverges significantly
with some models like the GFS and HWRF showing a motion to the
northeast into the weakness, while the other solutions show a stall
or a westward drift on the south side of a building ridge. An
examination of the GFS, ECMWF, and Google DeepMind ensemble suites
suggest that the majority of the members show Melissa not moving
into the weakness and remaining in the Caribbean Sea throughout the
week and into the weekend. The NHC official track forecast lies
between the Google DeepMind ensemble mean track and the correct
consensus aid, HCCA.

Melissa is expected to be over the very warm waters of the
Caribbean, but the models suggest that vertical wind shear will be
moderate with some dry air in the vicinity of the storm during the
next few days. Based on these mixed signals, the strengthening
trend is expected to be slow and steady, not rapid. However, the
future intensity of Melissa is linked to the track and since that is
quite uncertain beyond a couple of days, the strength of the storm
is also quite uncertain. The NHC intensity forecast is in best
agreement with the HCCA model.

Key Messages:

1. Melissa is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
significant flash flooding and the danger of landslides to portions
of Haiti and the Dominican Republic through the weekend.

2. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southern coast and
Tiburon peninsula of Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued
for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed by Thursday.

3. There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity
forecast of Melissa. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and Cuba
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 14.3N 71.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 14.4N 72.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 14.8N 73.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 15.3N 74.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 15.7N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 16.1N 74.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 16.5N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 16.9N 74.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 17.2N 74.9W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 211445
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

...THE 13TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 71.7W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southern peninsula of
Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince.
The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
island.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Border with Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of the newly formed Tropical
Storm Melissa was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 71.7
West. Melissa is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and
north is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track,
Melissa is expected to approach the southwestern portion of Haiti
and Jamaica later this week.

Surface observations and satellite data indicate that the maximum
sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual
strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Melissa can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti beginning on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could begin
in Jamaica on Thursday or Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa will bring heavy rainfall to Haiti and the
Dominican Republic, with totals of 5 to 10 inches expected through
Friday. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Friday, but
uncertainty regarding the track and forward speed of Melissa
reduces confidence in exact amounts. Areas of significant flash
flooding and mudslides are possible.

Over Aruba, Puerto Rico and Jamaica rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is
expected through Friday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible
across Puerto Rico through at least Friday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 211444
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1500 UTC TUE OCT 21 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 71.7W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 71.7W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 71.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.4N 72.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.8N 73.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.3N 74.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.7N 74.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.1N 74.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 16.9N 74.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 30SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 17.2N 74.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 71.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI