Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for PETER-21 in Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands U.S., Virgin Islands British, Anguilla, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda from 19 Sep 2021 03:00 UTC to 21 Sep 2021 15:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PETER-21

in Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands U.S., Virgin Islands British, Anguilla, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda

21 Sep 2021 15 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PETER-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands U.S., Virgin Islands British, Anguilla, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	83 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability	Medium (Anguilla)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	65 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	83 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

65 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.2 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	19 Sep 2021 03:00	74	No people	No people
2	19 Sep 2021 09:00	74	No people	No people
3	19 Sep 2021 13:00	74	No people	No people
4	19 Sep 2021 15:00	74	30 thousand	No people	Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla
5	19 Sep 2021 21:00	74	No people	No people
6	20 Sep 2021 03:00	83	20 thousand	No people	Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla
7	20 Sep 2021 09:00	83	Few people	No people	Anguilla
8	20 Sep 2021 15:00	83	Few people	No people	Anguilla
9	20 Sep 2021 21:00	83	No people	No people
10	21 Sep 2021 03:00	83	220 thousand	No people	Anguilla, Virgin Islands British, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Virgin Islands U.S.
11	21 Sep 2021 09:00	83	2 million	No people	Virgin Islands British, Anguilla, Virgin Islands U.S., Puerto Rico, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda
12	21 Sep 2021 15:00	65	2.2 million	No people	Virgin Islands British, Virgin Islands U.S., Puerto Rico, Anguilla, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	19 Sep 2021 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	16.4, -53.1
2	19 Sep 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	18, -53.5
3	19 Sep 2021 13:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	17.6, -56
4	19 Sep 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	17.6, -56.5
5	19 Sep 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	18.4, -57.8
6	20 Sep 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	18.6, -58.5
7	20 Sep 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	19.1, -59.5
8	20 Sep 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	<1000 people	19.5, -60.9
9	20 Sep 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	20, -61.8
10	21 Sep 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	220000 people	19.8, -62.8
11	21 Sep 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	2 million people	19.6, -63.8
12	21 Sep 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	2 million people	19.9, -64.7
12	22 Sep 2021 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	20.7, -65.7
12	22 Sep 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	21.7, -67
12	23 Sep 2021 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	22.7, -67.5
12	23 Sep 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	23.4, -67.6
12	24 Sep 2021 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	24.4, -67
12	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	25.4, -66.2
12	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	27.5, -64.4
12	26 Sep 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	29.8, -62.5

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
British Virgin Is.
Virgin Is.
Puerto Rico
Anguilla
St. Kitts & Nevis
Antigua & Barbuda

Provinces

Region Province	Country
British Virgin Is.	Virgin Islands British
Virgin Is.	Virgin Islands U.S.
Humacao	Puerto Rico
Bayamon	Puerto Rico
San Juan	Puerto Rico
Arecibo	Puerto Rico
Guayama	Puerto Rico
Anguilla	Anguilla
St. Kitts & Nevis	Saint Kitts and Nevis
Antigua & Barbuda	Antigua and Barbuda

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Road Town		British Virgin Islands	Capital	8300 people
Charlotte Amalie		Virgin Islands	Capital	10000 people
Carolina	Carolina	Puerto Rico	Major city	170000 people
San Juan	San Juan	Puerto Rico	Capital	420000 people
Guaynabo	Guaynabo	Puerto Rico	City	79000 people
Bayamon	Bayamon	Puerto Rico	City	200000 people
The Valley		Anguilla	Capital	1400 people
Philipsburg		Netherlands Antilles	City	6400 people
Gustavia		Guadeloupe	City	-
Basseterre		St. Kitts and Nevis	Capital	13000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Anegada	NGD	unknown				0
North Sound Virgin Gorda	NSX	unknown				0
Beef Island	EIS	5	Civ.	Paved	Yes	3600
Virgin Gorda	VIJ	4	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3100
Cruz Bay		unknown				0
Stouffer Grand Beach Resort		38				0
St. John	SJF	unknown				0
H.S. Truman	STT	5	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7000
Frenchman's Reef		6				0
Benjamin Rivera Noriega	CPX	15				0
Fajardo Harbor		unknown				0
Diego Jimenez Torres	FAJ	20	Civ.	Paved	No	3600
Roosevelt Roads Ns	NRR	12	Mil.	Paved	Yes	11000
Camp Garcia Vieques		14				0
Luis Munoz Marin International	SJU	3	Civ.	Paved	Yes	10000
Vieques	VQS	14	Civ.	Paved	No	3400
State Government Number One		82				0
Prasa-Barbosa		50				0
Isla Grande	SIG	3	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5300
Prtc Office Building		53				0
Boqueron		114				0
Rexach Office Building		18				0
Humacao		10				0
Bayamon Regional Hospital		34				0
Dorado		23				0
Prasa - La Plata		110				0
Christiansted Harbor- SSB		unknown				0
Alexander Hamilton	STX	19	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7600
Wallblake	AXA	33	Civ.	Paved	Yes	3600
Grand Case	CCE	2	Civ.	Paved	No	3900
Prinses Juliana	SXM	4	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7000
St. Barthelemy	SBH	unknown	Civ.	Paved	No	2100
F D Roosevelt	EUX	38	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4200
Golden Rock	SKB	52	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8000
Barbuda Codrington	BBQ	unknown				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Anegada Island		British Virgin Islands
Virgin Gorda Island		British Virgin Islands
Road Harbour & Port Purcell		British Virgin Islands
Cruz Bay		Virgin Islands
Charlotte Amalie	VISTT	Virgin Islands
Culebra		Puerto Rico
Fajardo		Puerto Rico
Isabel Segunda		Puerto Rico
Ensenada Honda		Puerto Rico
Naguabo		Puerto Rico
San Juan	PRSJU	Puerto Rico
Puerto de Humacao		Puerto Rico
Yabucoa	PRPYA	Puerto Rico
Christiansted	VICTD	Virgin Islands
Limetree Bay	VILIB	Virgin Islands
Hovic	VIHOC	Virgin Islands
Frederiksted	VIFRD	Virgin Islands
Blowing Point	AIBLP	Anguilla
Marigot		Guadeloupe
Philipsburg	ANPHI	Netherlands Antilles
Gustavia	GPGUS	Guadeloupe
Oranjestad		Netherlands Antilles
Basseterre	KNBAS	Saint Kitts and Nevis
Barbuda	AGBBQ	Antigua and Barbuda

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	La Plata	La Plata	1974

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 11 of 21 Sep 2021 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert

Date (UTC)

Name

Country

Storm surge height (m)

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.