Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for KELVIN-18 in Australia from 16 Feb 2018 06:00 UTC to 18 Feb 2018 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KELVIN-18

in Australia

17 Feb 2018 12 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KELVIN-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Australia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	80 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (17 Feb 19:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	80 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
GFS Overall	77 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

77 km/h

Up to 6 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Feb 2018 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Australia	6,054

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	16 Feb 2018 06:00	73	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 Feb 2018 12:00	80	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	16 Feb 2018 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 Feb 2018 00:00	84	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 Feb 2018 06:00	69	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 Feb 2018 12:00	80	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 17 Feb 2018 12:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	16 Feb 2018 06:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 Feb 2018 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	16 Feb 2018 18:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 Feb 2018 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 Feb 2018 06:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 Feb 2018 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Thangoo, Australia. This height is estimated for 17 Feb 2018 19:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Feb 2018 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 Feb 2018 19:30	Thangoo	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2018 12:00	Derby	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2018 19:15	Broome	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2018 18:45	Waterbank	Australia	0.4
	17 Feb 2018 18:30	Kennedys Cottage	Australia	0.4
	17 Feb 2018 13:30	Pender	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2018 09:00	Setiroek	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2018 22:45	Esperance	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2018 22:45	Doombup	Australia	0.2
	19 Feb 2018 03:15	Kualalupak	Indonesia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 22:45	Segintong	Indonesia	0.2
	19 Feb 2018 03:15	Pagetan	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 03:15	Tambakkarangan	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 03:15	Tabanio	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 03:15	Bawahalajung	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 08:45	Pagatan	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:45	Batakam	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:45	Kandangan	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 12:00	Mardie	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:15	Sidoardjo	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 04:30	Fremantle	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 04:30	North Fremantle	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 04:30	Mosman Park	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 04:30	Cottesloe	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 04:30	East Fremantle	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 04:30	Coogee	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 04:30	Peppermint Grove	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 04:30	Swanbourne	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 04:30	Claremont	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 04:30	Spearwood	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 04:30	Bicton	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 04:30	Wattleup	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:45	Semisir	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:45	Semaras	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 04:45	North Beach	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 04:45	Scarborough	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 04:45	Mullalloo Beach	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 17:30	Kollan I	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:30	Boenati	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 04:30	Rockingham	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:45	Tapianbalai	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:00	Pasuruan	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 01:45	Bayeman	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 00:30	Tambak	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 01:00	Sangkapura	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 03:15	Sawarangan	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:15	Tambakbaja	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:15	Remen	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:15	Plosokere	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:15	Djenu	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:15	Tuban	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 04:30	Safety Bay	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 04:30	Warnbro	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:00	Laboean	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:00	Kalipang	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:00	Lemanbang	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:15	Padangan-wetan	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:00	Sampang	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:00	Baliga	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:00	Sumberkuning	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 01:45	Probolinggo	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:00	Semanding	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:00	Podang	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:15	Brondong	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 12:00	Fannie Bay	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 12:00	Parap	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 12:00	Darwin	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 12:00	Nightcliff	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 12:00	Ludmilla	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 12:00	Bagot	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 12:00	Leanyer	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 12:00	Berrimah	Australia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 17:30	Pardoo	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 14:45	Dampier	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 14:45	Karratha	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:00	Gending	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 01:30	Aermata	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 01:45	Sapulu	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 01:30	Klampis	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 04:45	Quinns Rock	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 05:00	Peelhurst	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 05:00	Singleton	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 05:00	Karnup	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:15	Kraksaan	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 01:45	Tlagabiru	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 01:45	Banjoeates	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:15	Karagajar	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 05:00	Mandurah	Australia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 13:15	The Palms	Australia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 13:15	Larrakeyah	Australia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 13:15	Knuckeys Lagoon	Australia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 01:15	Ketapang	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 01:15	Kelapang	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 08:00	Hopetoun	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 08:00	Jerdacuttup	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:00	Galis	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 01:15	Sokabana	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 19:30	Dalyellup	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 19:30	Bunbury	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 19:30	Binningup	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 19:30	Myalup	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 19:30	Picton	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 19:30	Eaton	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 19:30	Burragenup	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 19:30	Australind	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:15	Besuki	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:00	Mandingan	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:15	Prenduan	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:15	Djate	Indonesia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.