Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for ALVIN-19 Off-shore from 25 Jun 2019 21:00 UTC to 29 Jun 2019 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ALVIN-19

Off-shore

27 Jun 2019 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ALVIN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	86 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (28 Jun 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	86 km/h	0.2 m	388 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	122 km/h	0.2 m	436 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

122 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 27 Jun 2019 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	25 Jun 2019 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	26 Jun 2019 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	26 Jun 2019 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	26 Jun 2019 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	26 Jun 2019 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	27 Jun 2019 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Jun 2019 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Mexico	3,765,318

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	25 Jun 2019 18:00	51	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	26 Jun 2019 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	26 Jun 2019 06:00	110	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	26 Jun 2019 12:00	95	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	26 Jun 2019 18:00	128	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	27 Jun 2019 00:00	388	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Los Burros, Mexico. This height is estimated for 28 Jun 2019 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 27 Jun 2019 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	28 Jun 2019 02:00	Los Burros	Mexico	0.2
	28 Jun 2019 02:30	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	28 Jun 2019 02:30	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	28 Jun 2019 02:30	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	28 Jun 2019 02:15	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	28 Jun 2019 02:15	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.2
	28 Jun 2019 02:15	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	29 Jun 2019 20:30	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	29 Jun 2019 20:30	La Boca	Mexico	0.2
	28 Jun 2019 02:00	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	28 Jun 2019 02:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	28 Jun 2019 02:00	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.2
	28 Jun 2019 01:30	La Ventana	Mexico	0.1
	28 Jun 2019 01:30	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	28 Jun 2019 01:30	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.1
	29 Jun 2019 16:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.1
	29 Jun 2019 16:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.1
	29 Jun 2019 21:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.1
	29 Jun 2019 21:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.1
	29 Jun 2019 15:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	29 Jun 2019 20:30	Novillero	Mexico	0.1
	28 Jun 2019 01:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	29 Jun 2019 20:15	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.1
	29 Jun 2019 20:45	San Blas	Mexico	0.1
	29 Jun 2019 20:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	29 Jun 2019 20:15	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	28 Jun 2019 01:45	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	28 Jun 2019 01:45	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	28 Jun 2019 01:45	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	28 Jun 2019 01:15	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	28 Jun 2019 01:15	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	28 Jun 2019 02:00	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.1
	28 Jun 2019 02:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.1
	28 Jun 2019 01:30	Marmol	Mexico	0.1
	28 Jun 2019 01:30	Florida	Mexico	0.1
	29 Jun 2019 20:15	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	28 Jun 2019 01:45	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	28 Jun 2019 01:45	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	29 Jun 2019 20:15	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	29 Jun 2019 20:15	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.