Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for RAYMOND-19
in Mexico
15 Nov 2019 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RAYMOND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 61 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (16 Nov 03:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 61 km/h 0.2 m 150 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 65 km/h 0.2 m 538 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

65 km/h

Up to 7 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Nov 2019 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico7,087 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 14 Nov 2019 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 15 Nov 2019 00:00 79 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Nov 2019 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico170,158 
50-100 mmMexico277,228 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 14 Nov 2019 12:00 193 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 15 Nov 2019 00:00 336 170 thousand
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Boca del Rio, Mexico. This height is estimated for 16 Nov 2019 03:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Nov 2019 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
16 Nov 2019 03:15 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 03:15 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 15:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 15:15 Las Bocas Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 15:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 15:15 Loreto Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 15:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 15:15 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 15:15 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 15:15 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 15:00 San Jose Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 15:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 21:30 Salinas Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 21:30 Buen Pais Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 21:30 Alvarado Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 21:30 Conejo Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 15:00 Ligui Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 14:30 Datilito Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 14:30 La Paz Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 14:30 Rosario Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 15:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 21:30 Anton Lizardo Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 15:15 Mulege Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 15:00 Tripui Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 15:00 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 15:15 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 15:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 01:00 Pesqueria Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 01:00 San Dionisio del Mar Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 01:00 San Francisco del Mar Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 15:00 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 05:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 05:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 05:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 01:15 Salina Cruz Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 01:15 Lagarto Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 14:30 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 15:00 San Ignacio Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 05:30 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 03:15 Novillero Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 03:15 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 03:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 15:00 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 03:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 03:15 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 23:30 Salmoral Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 23:30 Veracruz Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 05:15 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 14:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
17 Nov 2019 14:45 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 15:30 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 15:00 Tambobiche Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 01:00 Costa Rica Mexico  0.1