Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for MARIE-20 Off-shore from 29 Sep 2020 09:00 UTC to 07 Oct 2020 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIE-20

Off-shore

29 Sep 2020 18 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	68 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (01 Oct 08:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	68 km/h	0.4 m	177 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	180 km/h	0.4 m	792 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

180 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2020 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	29 Sep 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	29 Sep 2020 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	29 Sep 2020 18:00	133	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2020 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Mexico	328

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	29 Sep 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	29 Sep 2020 12:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	29 Sep 2020 18:00	392	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Cabo Tepoca, Mexico. This height is estimated for 01 Oct 2020 08:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2020 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	01 Oct 2020 08:15	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.4
	01 Oct 2020 20:00	Tecomate	Mexico	0.3
	30 Sep 2020 07:45	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.3
	29 Sep 2020 23:15	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.3
	30 Sep 2020 10:45	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.3
	30 Sep 2020 10:15	San Rafael	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 10:45	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 20:15	Guasimas	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 09:45	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 09:45	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 09:45	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 20:15	Empalme	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 10:30	El Barril	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 20:00	Tastiota	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 20:30	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 20:30	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 22:30	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 22:30	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 20:00	Mulege	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 20:30	Guaymas	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 20:00	San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 20:00	Atanacio	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 20:00	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 20:00	Borabampo	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 22:45	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 22:45	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 22:45	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 20:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 20:00	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 20:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 20:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 13:30	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 20:15	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 01:00	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 20:15	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 20:15	Liliba	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 20:15	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 19:45	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 22:15	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 20:00	Loreto	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 22:15	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 22:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 23:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 23:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 10:15	Ligui	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 10:15	Tripui	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 10:15	San Cosme	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 09:45	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 09:45	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 00:15	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 00:15	La Boca	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 10:15	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 20:00	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 19:15	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 09:45	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 09:45	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 09:45	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 09:45	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 22:30	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 10:30	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 09:30	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 20:45	Los Burros	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 19:15	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 00:30	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 20:45	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 22:30	Monteon	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 22:30	La Lima	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 09:45	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 10:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 10:00	La Ventana	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 10:00	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 10:00	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 22:00	Altata	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 22:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 22:30	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 10:15	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 10:15	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 10:45	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 10:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 10:45	Cedros	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 23:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 23:15	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 23:00	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 23:00	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 23:00	Marmol	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 23:00	Florida	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 19:00	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 19:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 19:00	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 09:30	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 09:30	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 09:30	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 09:30	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 23:00	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 23:00	San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 10:00	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 23:00	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.1
	02 Oct 2020 01:30	La Playa	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.