Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for EIGHTEEN-21 in Australia from 31 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC to 05 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for EIGHTEEN-21

in Australia

31 Jan 2021 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EIGHTEEN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	54 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (02 Feb 19:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	54 km/h	0.5 m	15 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	83 km/h	1.1 m	444 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

83 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 31 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	31 Jan 2021 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	31 Jan 2021 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Indonesia, Australia	1,726,545	+
	Indonesia	1,707,132
	Australia	19,413
50-100 mm	Indonesia, Christmas Island, Australia	17,833,227	+
	Indonesia	17,821,679
	Christmas Island	1,530
	Australia	10,018

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	31 Jan 2021 00:00	15	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	31 Jan 2021 12:00	311	1.7 million			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Christmas Island, Australia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Learmonth, Australia. This height is estimated for 02 Feb 2021 19:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 31 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	02 Feb 2021 19:00	Learmonth	Australia	0.5
	02 Feb 2021 04:30	Dampier	Australia	0.4
	02 Feb 2021 04:30	Karratha	Australia	0.4
	02 Feb 2021 04:30	Point Samson	Australia	0.4
	02 Feb 2021 04:30	Cossack	Australia	0.4
	02 Feb 2021 04:15	Wickham	Australia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 00:45	Onslow	Australia	0.3
	02 Feb 2021 17:00	Exmouth	Australia	0.3
	02 Feb 2021 22:15	Mardie	Australia	0.3
	31 Jan 2021 12:00	Carnarvon	Australia	0.3
	31 Jan 2021 12:15	Babakancibeber	Indonesia	0.3
	31 Jan 2021 12:15	Kolitjaah	Indonesia	0.3
	31 Jan 2021 12:15	Tjiteureup	Indonesia	0.3
	31 Jan 2021 12:15	Labuhan	Indonesia	0.3
	31 Jan 2021 12:15	Kaduperasi	Indonesia	0.3
	02 Feb 2021 06:00	East Lewis I	Australia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 00:30	Glenroy	Australia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 15:00	Maringgai	Indonesia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 12:15	Tjikawung	Indonesia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 12:15	Sumur	Indonesia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 13:00	Aerdjeruk	Indonesia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 12:00	Gladstone	Australia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 15:00	Kencong	Indonesia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 15:00	Lodjedjer	Indonesia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 18:30	Vasse	Australia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 18:30	Broadwater	Australia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 18:30	Busselton	Australia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 18:30	Wonnerup	Australia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 18:30	Ludlow	Australia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 21:30	Guring	Indonesia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 21:30	Kota Agung	Indonesia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 12:15	Binangoen	Indonesia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 12:15	Ajah	Indonesia	0.2
	01 Feb 2021 03:00	Warroora	Australia	0.2
	01 Feb 2021 03:00	Gnaraloo	Australia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 12:15	Adipala	Indonesia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 12:15	Chilachap	Indonesia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 12:45	Kalianda	Indonesia	0.2
	01 Feb 2021 02:45	Cardabia	Australia	0.2
	01 Feb 2021 00:15	Pringgabaja	Indonesia	0.2
	01 Feb 2021 00:15	Lombok	Indonesia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 14:15	Shark Bay	Australia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 14:15	Monkey Mia	Australia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 12:30	Carrarang	Australia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 12:30	Tamala	Australia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 12:45	Umbulan Pepanggar	Indonesia	0.2
	01 Feb 2021 00:15	Sunut	Indonesia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 12:15	Sindangsari	Indonesia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 12:15	Cijulang	Indonesia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 12:15	Cikalong	Indonesia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 12:15	Pangadaran	Indonesia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 14:00	Merak	Indonesia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 14:00	Domas	Indonesia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 12:45	Bakau	Indonesia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 12:45	Ketapang	Indonesia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 03:30	Ningaloo	Australia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 21:30	Bandjaragung	Indonesia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 21:30	Waiharoe	Indonesia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 21:30	Karangberak	Indonesia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 03:15	Bundera Bundera	Australia	0.2
	01 Feb 2021 00:15	Djareweh	Indonesia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 19:00	Quobba	Australia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 12:45	Anjer-Kidu	Indonesia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 15:15	Horrocks	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 15:15	Drummond Cove	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 15:15	Popes Landing	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 15:15	Waggrakine	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 12:15	Kekatang	Indonesia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 12:15	Menango	Indonesia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 12:15	Tandjungkarang	Indonesia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 12:15	Telukbetung	Indonesia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 12:15	Tarahan	Indonesia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 19:00	Cape Cuvier	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 15:15	Geraldton	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 23:45	Ah Chong I	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 13:45	Kalbarri	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 18:30	Dalyellup	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 18:30	Bunbury	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 18:45	Gregory	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 18:45	Lynton	Australia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 03:15	Ambunten-timu	Indonesia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 03:15	Belukares	Indonesia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 03:15	Sumenep	Indonesia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 03:15	Batuputihkenek	Indonesia	0.1
	01 Feb 2021 08:30	Pasuruan	Indonesia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 12:15	Nanga	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 21:15	Sawangbalak	Indonesia	0.1
	01 Feb 2021 08:00	Sembelie	Indonesia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 18:15	Dunsborough	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 18:15	Quindalup	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 17:30	Useless Loop	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 21:15	Putih	Indonesia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 13:45	Denham	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 12:15	Kaliputjang	Indonesia	0.1
	01 Feb 2021 08:00	Laboean Mapin	Indonesia	0.1
	01 Feb 2021 03:00	Binningup	Australia	0.1
	01 Feb 2021 03:00	Myalup	Australia	0.1
	01 Feb 2021 03:00	Eaton	Australia	0.1
	01 Feb 2021 03:00	Burragenup	Australia	0.1
	01 Feb 2021 03:00	Australind	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 14:30	Greenough	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 14:30	Dongara	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 17:45	Dirk Hartog	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 18:00	Milyeannup	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 15:15	Condro	Indonesia	0.1
	01 Feb 2021 09:15	Muntjar	Indonesia	0.1
	01 Feb 2021 09:15	Blimbing	Indonesia	0.1
	01 Feb 2021 09:15	Dadapan	Indonesia	0.1
	01 Feb 2021 09:15	Banyuwangi	Indonesia	0.1
	01 Feb 2021 09:15	Banjuwangi	Indonesia	0.1
	01 Feb 2021 09:15	Gilimanuk	Indonesia	0.1
	01 Feb 2021 09:15	Penginoeman	Indonesia	0.1
	01 Feb 2021 09:15	Belimbingsari	Indonesia	0.1
	01 Feb 2021 09:15	Tjandikesuma	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 06:45	Picton	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 21:15	Tampang	Indonesia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 12:15	Petanahan	Indonesia	0.1
	01 Feb 2021 08:30	Bayeman	Indonesia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.