Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for NIRAN-21 in New Caledonia, Australia, Norfolk Island, Vanuatu from 01 Mar 2021 00:00 UTC to 07 Mar 2021 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for NIRAN-21

in New Caledonia, Australia, Norfolk Island, Vanuatu

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NIRAN-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries	Australia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	115 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (04 Mar 14:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (New Caledonia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	115 km/h	0.5 m	205 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	274 km/h	1.2 m	864 mm	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

274 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Mar 2021 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Australia	12

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	01 Mar 2021 00:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	01 Mar 2021 06:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
3	01 Mar 2021 12:00	79	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
4	01 Mar 2021 18:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	02 Mar 2021 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	02 Mar 2021 06:00	94	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
7	02 Mar 2021 12:00	198	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Mar 2021 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Australia	13
50-100 mm	Australia	1,709

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	01 Mar 2021 00:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	01 Mar 2021 06:00	187	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
3	01 Mar 2021 12:00	144	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
4	01 Mar 2021 18:00	238	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
5	02 Mar 2021 00:00	142	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
6	02 Mar 2021 06:00	152	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	02 Mar 2021 12:00	1096	Few people			-	-	-	-	Australia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Banana Pocket, Australia. This height is estimated for 04 Mar 2021 14:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 02 Mar 2021 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	04 Mar 2021 14:00	Banana Pocket	Australia	0.5
	04 Mar 2021 14:00	Lethebrook	Australia	0.5
	04 Mar 2021 14:00	Conway	Australia	0.5
	04 Mar 2021 14:00	Midgeton	Australia	0.5
	04 Mar 2021 13:45	Cannon Valley	Australia	0.5
	04 Mar 2021 13:45	Windermere	Australia	0.5
	04 Mar 2021 15:00	Carmila	Australia	0.5
	04 Mar 2021 15:00	Flaggy Rock	Australia	0.5
	04 Mar 2021 13:45	Te Kowai	Australia	0.4
	04 Mar 2021 13:45	Etowri	Australia	0.4
	04 Mar 2021 13:45	Nindaroo	Australia	0.4
	04 Mar 2021 13:45	Glenella	Australia	0.4
	04 Mar 2021 13:45	Bakers Creek	Australia	0.4
	04 Mar 2021 13:45	Bucasia	Australia	0.4
	04 Mar 2021 13:45	Eimeo	Australia	0.4
	04 Mar 2021 13:45	North Mackay	Australia	0.4
	04 Mar 2021 13:45	Mackay	Australia	0.4
	04 Mar 2021 13:45	Andergrove	Australia	0.4
	04 Mar 2021 13:45	Cremorne	Australia	0.4
	04 Mar 2021 13:45	Blacks Beach	Australia	0.4
	04 Mar 2021 13:45	Slade Point	Australia	0.4
	04 Mar 2021 13:45	Amhurst	Australia	0.4
	04 Mar 2021 13:45	Habana	Australia	0.4
	04 Mar 2021 13:45	Barcoo	Australia	0.4
	04 Mar 2021 13:45	Alexandra	Australia	0.4
	04 Mar 2021 13:45	Rosella	Australia	0.4
	04 Mar 2021 13:45	Chelona	Australia	0.4
	04 Mar 2021 13:45	Hay Point	Australia	0.4
	04 Mar 2021 14:00	Taffy Islet	Australia	0.4
	04 Mar 2021 14:00	Alligator Creek	Australia	0.4
	02 Mar 2021 19:15	Broadmount	Australia	0.4
	02 Mar 2021 19:15	Port Alma	Australia	0.4
	04 Mar 2021 14:00	Munbura	Australia	0.4
	04 Mar 2021 13:15	Seaforth	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 14:00	Elalie	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 13:30	Saint Helens	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 11:00	Farnborough	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 11:00	Yeppoon	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 11:00	Tanby	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 11:00	Kinka	Australia	0.3
	03 Mar 2021 08:15	Halifax	Australia	0.3
	03 Mar 2021 08:15	Cassady	Australia	0.3
	03 Mar 2021 09:00	Coolbie	Australia	0.3
	03 Mar 2021 09:00	Mutarnee	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 11:00	Coowonga	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 11:00	Coorooman	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 11:00	Emu Park	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 11:00	Keppel Sands	Australia	0.3
	02 Mar 2021 18:45	Lucinda	Australia	0.3
	03 Mar 2021 09:00	Moongobulla	Australia	0.3
	03 Mar 2021 09:00	Kinduro	Australia	0.3
	03 Mar 2021 09:00	Rollingstone	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 13:45	Kalarka	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 13:45	Clairview	Australia	0.3
	03 Mar 2021 07:30	Cardwell	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 06:00	Gladstone	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 06:00	Toolooa	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 06:00	Parsons Point	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 06:00	Benaraby	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 06:00	Boyne Island	Australia	0.3
	02 Mar 2021 13:00	Carstairs	Australia	0.3
	02 Mar 2021 13:00	Jarvisfield	Australia	0.3
	02 Mar 2021 13:00	Rita Island	Australia	0.3
	03 Mar 2021 08:15	Pallarenda	Australia	0.3
	03 Mar 2021 08:15	Belgian Gardens	Australia	0.3
	03 Mar 2021 08:15	Townsville	Australia	0.3
	03 Mar 2021 08:15	Oonoonba	Australia	0.3
	03 Mar 2021 07:15	Lower Tully	Australia	0.3
	03 Mar 2021 07:30	South Mission Beach	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 12:00	Merinda	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 12:00	Delta	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 12:00	Bootooloo	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 12:00	Inveroona	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 12:00	Queens Beach	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 12:00	Bowen	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 12:00	Yumbabullo	Australia	0.3
	02 Mar 2021 19:45	Oolbun	Australia	0.3
	03 Mar 2021 08:15	Cluden	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 13:00	Airlie	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 12:45	Mookarra	Australia	0.3
	04 Mar 2021 12:15	Cannonvale	Australia	0.2
	04 Mar 2021 11:15	Alva	Australia	0.2
	05 Mar 2021 06:30	Saint Lawrence	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 16:45	Southend	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 18:30	Innisfail	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 19:30	Dundowran	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 19:30	Urraween	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 19:30	Point Vernon	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 19:30	Kawungan	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 19:30	Pialba	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 19:30	Scarness	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 19:30	Torquay	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 19:30	Urangan	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 19:30	Bingham	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 17:30	Elliott Heads	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 17:30	Buxton	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 17:30	Woodgate	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 17:30	Burrum	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 17:30	Traviston	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 17:45	Pemberton	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 18:30	Deeral	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 18:30	Bellenden Ker	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 17:45	Toogoom	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 16:45	Port Bundaberg	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 16:45	The Grange	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 16:45	Bargara	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 21:45	Samarai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 21:45	Sidudu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 21:45	Magesina	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 21:45	Sideia I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 21:45	Tegerauna Mission	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 21:45	Bedauna	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	03 Mar 2021 06:30	Yarrabah Aboriginal Community	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 13:30	Ho	New Caledonia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 13:30	Meomo	New Caledonia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 13:30	Houailou	New Caledonia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 13:30	Ouakaya	New Caledonia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 13:30	Poro	New Caledonia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 13:30	Kouaoua	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Mar 2021 06:30	Cairns	Australia	0.2
	03 Mar 2021 06:30	Kamma	Australia	0.2
	03 Mar 2021 06:30	Gadaisu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	03 Mar 2021 06:30	Bona Bona I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	03 Mar 2021 06:30	Auneri	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	03 Mar 2021 06:30	Silo Silo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	03 Mar 2021 06:30	Lawes College	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	03 Mar 2021 06:30	Lahimoina	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	03 Mar 2021 06:30	Leileiafa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 16:15	Bustard Head	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 16:15	Seventeen Seventy	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 18:00	Trinity Beach	Australia	0.2
	02 Mar 2021 18:00	Yorkeys Knob	Australia	0.2
	03 Mar 2021 06:45	Mossman	Australia	0.1
	03 Mar 2021 06:45	Miallo	Australia	0.1
	03 Mar 2021 06:45	Wonga	Australia	0.1
	03 Mar 2021 06:45	Port Douglas	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 16:30	Avondale	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 16:30	Moore Park	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 16:30	Fairymead	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 16:30	Burnett Heads	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 12:00	Ayton	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 17:45	Hockley	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 12:00	Cooktown	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 22:00	Alotau	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 22:00	Daio	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 22:00	Toulie	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 22:00	Kaloi	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 22:00	Awaiama	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 22:00	Aigubu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 22:00	Iapoa	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 22:00	Kilakilana School	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 22:00	Piori	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 22:00	Wapulamutana	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 22:00	Lelehudi	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 22:00	Hiliwau	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 22:00	Gaduda	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	05 Mar 2021 00:45	Arama	New Caledonia	0.1
	05 Mar 2021 00:45	Pam	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 12:00	Elim	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 17:45	Barron Falls	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 17:45	Freshwater	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 17:45	Stratford	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 17:45	Woree	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 17:45	Edge Hill	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 17:15	Petrie	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 17:15	Lawnton	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 17:15	Kallangur	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 17:15	Deception Bay	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 17:15	Beachmere	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 17:15	Bribie View	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 17:15	Donnybrook	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 17:15	Toorbul	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 17:15	Margate	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 17:15	Redcliffe	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 17:15	Scarborough	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 17:15	Bellara	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 17:15	Bongaree	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 17:15	Woorim	Australia	0.1
	05 Mar 2021 03:15	Tiabet	New Caledonia	0.1
	05 Mar 2021 03:30	Poum-Plage	New Caledonia	0.1
	05 Mar 2021 02:45	Balaide	New Caledonia	0.1
	05 Mar 2021 02:45	Saint-Paul	New Caledonia	0.1
	05 Mar 2021 02:45	Pouebo	New Caledonia	0.1
	05 Mar 2021 03:30	Houone	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 21:45	Pihigole	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 21:45	Hewiia	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 22:00	Kasabanalua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 20:30	Tagula	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 20:30	Griffin Point	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 20:30	Madaua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 20:30	Bwagimogimo	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 15:00	Benowa	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 15:00	Gold Coast	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 15:00	Southport	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 15:00	Surfers Paradise	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 15:00	Broadbeach	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 15:00	West Burleigh	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 15:00	Burleigh Heads	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 15:00	Tumbulgum	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 15:00	Piggabeen	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 15:00	Bilambil	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 15:00	North Tumbulgum	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 15:00	Palm Beach	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 15:00	Currumbin	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 15:00	Tugun	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 15:00	Terranora	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 15:00	Bilinga	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 15:00	Stotts Creek	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 15:00	Tweed Heads	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 15:00	Coolangatta	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 15:00	Kingscliff-Fingal	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 15:00	Cudgen	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 15:00	Chinderah	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 15:00	Kingscliff	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 20:15	Running Creek	Australia	0.1
	03 Mar 2021 08:45	Aloszville	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 20:30	Hekampan	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 20:45	Pantava	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 20:45	Rambuso	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 19:45	Wynnum	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 19:45	Manly	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 19:45	Capalaba	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 19:45	Birkdale	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 19:45	Wellington Point	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 19:45	Ormiston	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 19:45	Thornlands	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 19:45	Cleveland	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 19:45	Alberton	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 19:45	Carbrook	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 19:45	Raby Bay	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 19:45	Gilberton	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 19:45	Redland Bay	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 19:45	Victoria Point	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 19:45	Woongoolba	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 19:45	Steiglitz	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 19:45	Dunwich	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 19:45	Wallen Wallen	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 19:45	Canalpin	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 18:30	White Rock	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 18:30	Edmonton	Australia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 21:45	East C	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	05 Mar 2021 03:15	Poum	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 21:45	Hehego Mission	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	05 Mar 2021 03:30	Pairome	New Caledonia	0.1
	05 Mar 2021 02:45	Wala	New Caledonia	0.1
	05 Mar 2021 02:45	Bweo	New Caledonia	0.1
	05 Mar 2021 02:30	Panane	New Caledonia	0.1
	05 Mar 2021 02:30	Mouane	New Caledonia	0.1
	05 Mar 2021 02:30	Ono	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 21:45	Mufuiuwabwahibiga	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Mar 2021 21:45	Paligele	Papua New Guinea	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.