Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for JOBO-21 in Tanzania, Seychelles from 21 Apr 2021 00:00 UTC to 24 Apr 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JOBO-21

in Tanzania, Seychelles

21 Apr 2021 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone JOBO-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries	Seychelles, Comoros
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	137 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (21 Apr 13:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	137 km/h	0.2 m	353 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	137 km/h	0.2 m	699 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Seychelles, Comoros	19,197	+
	Seychelles	495
	Comoros	18,702

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	21 Apr 2021 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
2	21 Apr 2021 06:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
3	21 Apr 2021 12:00	137	-	-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles, Comoros

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

699 mm

Up to 410 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
500-750 mm	Comoros	323
250-500 mm	Comoros	26,779
100-250 mm	Seychelles, Mozambique, Comoros	386,135	+
	Seychelles	439
	Mozambique	55,454
	Comoros	330,242
50-100 mm	Seychelles, Tanzania, Mozambique, Comoros	305,416	+
	Seychelles	56
	Tanzania	32,153
	Mozambique	56,758
	Comoros	216,449

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	21 Apr 2021 00:00	202	-	-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
2	21 Apr 2021 06:00	229	Few people		-	-	-	-	Seychelles
3	21 Apr 2021 12:00	922	410 thousand				-	-	Seychelles, Tanzania, Mozambique, Comoros

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Somanga, Tanzania. This height is estimated for 21 Apr 2021 13:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	21 Apr 2021 13:30	Somanga	Tanzania	0.2
	21 Apr 2021 13:30	Pombwe	Tanzania	0.2
	21 Apr 2021 13:30	Jaja	Tanzania	0.2
	21 Apr 2021 19:00	Magawa	Tanzania	0.2
	21 Apr 2021 19:00	Msindaji	Tanzania	0.2
	21 Apr 2021 19:00	Mchungu	Tanzania	0.2
	21 Apr 2021 14:30	Kiombani	Tanzania	0.2
	21 Apr 2021 13:15	Matapatapa	Tanzania	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 19:00	Kisiju	Tanzania	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 15:45	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 15:45	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 15:45	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 15:45	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 15:45	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 15:45	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 15:45	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 15:45	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 18:45	Dondo	Tanzania	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 13:15	Mbwera	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 07:00	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 07:00	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 07:00	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 07:00	Singalana	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 07:00	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 07:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 07:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 07:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 07:00	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 07:45	Ambalihabe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 07:45	Ambodizaotra	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 07:45	Antotoro	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 07:45	Ampohana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 18:45	Nyambati	Tanzania	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 18:45	Salale	Tanzania	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 13:30	Kiechuru	Tanzania	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 18:15	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 18:15	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 18:15	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 18:15	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 15:30	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 15:30	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 15:30	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 14:30	Mwera	Tanzania	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 14:30	Kilindoni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 15:15	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 16:45	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 16:45	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 16:45	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 16:45	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 16:45	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 16:45	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 12:45	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 12:45	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 12:45	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 12:45	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 12:45	Antsahabe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 12:45	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 12:45	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 12:45	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 12:45	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Apr 2021 16:00	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.