Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for JOBO-21 in Tanzania, Seychelles from 21 Apr 2021 00:00 UTC to 24 Apr 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JOBO-21

in Tanzania, Seychelles

22 Apr 2021 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone JOBO-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	104 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.1 m (22 Apr 06:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	104 km/h	0.1 m	349 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	112 km/h	0.2 m	504 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 22 Apr 2021 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	20 Apr 2021 12:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	21 Apr 2021 00:00	112	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
3	21 Apr 2021 12:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
4	22 Apr 2021 00:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Apr 2021 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Comoros, Madagascar	18,543	+
	Comoros	15,240
	Madagascar	3,303
50-100 mm	Seychelles, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar	552,250	+
	Seychelles	289
	Mozambique	627
	Comoros	148,711
	Madagascar	402,623

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	20 Apr 2021 12:00	160	7 thousand		-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Mozambique
2	21 Apr 2021 00:00	165	-	-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
3	21 Apr 2021 12:00	299	Few people		-	-	-	-	Seychelles, Tanzania
4	22 Apr 2021 00:00	441	20 thousand		-	-	-	-	Seychelles, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in Kipara, Tanzania. This height is estimated for 22 Apr 2021 06:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 22 Apr 2021 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	22 Apr 2021 06:15	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 06:15	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 06:15	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 06:15	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 06:15	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 06:15	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 06:15	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 06:15	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 08:15	Ampaha	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 08:15	Andrapengy	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 08:15	Ambinany	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 08:15	Antalaha	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 01:00	Magawa	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 01:00	Msindaji	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 01:00	Mchungu	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 00:45	Quionga	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 00:45	Quiwia	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 05:00	Ecota	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 05:00	Nacala Velha	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 05:00	Namelala	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 05:00	Capelelene	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 05:00	Nhiendgi	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 05:00	Maaia	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 05:00	Nacala	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 05:00	Chepa	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 05:00	Matiquite	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 05:00	Minhauine	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 12:15	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 01:15	Miquindane	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 01:15	Lurio	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 01:15	Mauala	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Apr 2021 01:15	Arire	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Apr 2021 14:00	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	24 Apr 2021 14:00	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	24 Apr 2021 14:00	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	23 Apr 2021 14:45	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.