Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico
12 Oct 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 8 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 119 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (12 Oct 03:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 119 km/h 0.2 m 215 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 162 km/h 0.3 m 404 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

162 km/h

Up to 8 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 2Mexico191 
CAT. 1Mexico7,960 
Tropical StormMexico712,587 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 11 Oct 2021 18:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 12 Oct 2021 00:00 198 8 thousand
- - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico54,008 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico997,812
+
United States225,361 
Mexico772,450 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico4,425,758
+
United States4,042,926 
Mexico382,831 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 291 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 272 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 285 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 163 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 137 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 226 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 11 Oct 2021 18:00 187 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 12 Oct 2021 00:00 441 1.1 million
- - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Puerto Penasco, Mexico. This height is estimated for 12 Oct 2021 03:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 04:15 La Choya Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 05:15 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 05:15 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 04:30 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 03:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 02:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 05:15 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 04:15 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 05:15 Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 02:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 02:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 01:45 Novillero Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 02:30 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 01:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 01:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:45 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 00:15 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:45 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:45 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 San Pedro United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 Wilmington United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 Signal Hill United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 Belmont Shore United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 Surfside United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 Seal Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 Sunset Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 Huntington Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:45 La Florida Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:45 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:15 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Rancho Palos Verdes United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Rolling Hills Estates United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Rolling Hills United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:00 Azure Vista United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:00 Ocean Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:00 Fort Rosecrans United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:00 Roseville United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:00 Loma Portal United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:00 San Diego United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:00 Coronado United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:00 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:00 Boal United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:45 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:00 The Muirlands United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:00 Mission Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:00 Campland on the Bay Trailer Park United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Las Flores United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Castellammare United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Pacific Palisades United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Santa Monica United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Sawtelle United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Marina del Rey United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Playa del Rey United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Alsace United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 El Segundo United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Manhattan Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Hermosa Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Palos Verdes Estates United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Clifton United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Redondo Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 La Jolla United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Easter Cross United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 Newport Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 Cliff Haven United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 Bay Shores United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 La Boca Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:00 Molino Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Loreto Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Malibu United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Monte Nido United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:00 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 05:15 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 00:00 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 Dimas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:15 Rancho Boca de San Jose Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:15 Erendria Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:00 Aguaje Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 00:15 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:00 Corpus Christi United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:00 North Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:00 Gardendale United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:00 Doyle United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:00 Orange Grove United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:00 Portland United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:00 Gregory United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:00 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Leucadia United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Encinitas United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Cardiff-by-the-Sea United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Solana Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Green Valley Mobile Estates United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Del Mar United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Sorrento United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:45 Datilito Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:45 La Paz Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:45 Rosario Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:45 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Laguna Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Canyon Acres United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Top of the World United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 South Laguna United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Capistrano Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 San Clemente United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Agra United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Las Flores United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 Balboa United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 Corona del Mar United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 Crystal Cove United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 Two Harbors United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:00 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Stuart United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Fallbrook Junction United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Camp Pendleton South United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 00:00 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 San Blas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Quinones Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:45 Altata Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Emerald Bay United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:00 Empalme Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:00 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:00 Ligui Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:00 Tripui Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 Avalon United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 San Joaquin Hills United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 Monteon Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 La Lima Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Ponto United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:45 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Escondido Junction United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Oceanside United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Carlsbad United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:00 La Gloria Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:00 Chaparral Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:45 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:45 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:45 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Rosarito Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 00:45 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:15 El Rosario Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:45 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 05:30 Ingleside United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 05:30 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 05:30 Port Ingleside United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 05:30 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 05:30 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 05:30 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 05:30 Aransas Pass United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:00 San Jose Mexico  0.1