Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for MARIA-17 in Virgin IslandsU.S.GuadeloupePuerto RicoDominicaTurks and Caicos IslandsDominican RepublicMartiniqueAntigua and BarbudaMontserratSaint Kitts and NevisAnguillaBritish from 16 Sep 2017 21:00 UTC to 30 Sep 2017 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIA-17

in Virgin IslandsU.S.GuadeloupePuerto RicoDominicaTurks and Caicos IslandsDominican RepublicMartiniqueAntigua and BarbudaMontserratSaint Kitts and NevisAnguillaBritish

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIA-17 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	United States
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	0 km/h
Maximum storm surge	2.6 m (29 Sep 08:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	0 km/h	2.6 m	0 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	172 km/h	1.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

172 km/h

Up to 40 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Sep 2017 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	United States	39,917

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	16 Sep 2017 00:00	66	-	-	-	-	-	-	United States
2	16 Sep 2017 12:00	80	-	-	-	-	-	-	United States, Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe (France)
3	17 Sep 2017 00:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	United States, Sint Eustatius (Netherlands), Other countries, Montserrat, Guadeloupe (France), Dominica
4	17 Sep 2017 12:00	125	1 thousand		-	-	-	-	United States, British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Saint Martin, Sint Maarten, Saint Barthelemy, Saba (Netherlands), Sint Eustatius (Netherlands), Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Guadeloupe (France), Other countries, Dominica
5	18 Sep 2017 00:00	136	180 thousand		-	-	-	-	United States, British Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Other countries, Anguilla, Saint Martin, Sint Maarten, Saint Barthelemy, Saba (Netherlands), Sint Eustatius (Netherlands), Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Guadeloupe (France), Dominica, Martinique (France)
6	18 Sep 2017 12:00	148	130 thousand		-	-	-	-	United States, Dominican Republic, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Other countries, Anguilla, Saint Martin, Sint Maarten, Saint Barthelemy, Saba (Netherlands), Sint Eustatius (Netherlands), Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Guadeloupe (France), Dominica, Martinique (France)
7	19 Sep 2017 00:00	152	180 thousand		-	-	-	-	United States, Dominican Republic, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Other countries, Anguilla, Saint Martin, Sint Maarten, Saint Barthelemy, Antigua and Barbuda, Saba (Netherlands), Sint Eustatius (Netherlands), Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Guadeloupe (France), Dominica, Martinique (France)
8	19 Sep 2017 12:00	157	400 thousand			-	-	-	Turks and Caicos Islands, Dominican Republic, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Other countries, Anguilla, Saint Martin, Sint Maarten, Saint Barthelemy, Antigua and Barbuda, Saba (Netherlands), Sint Eustatius (Netherlands), Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Guadeloupe (France)
9	20 Sep 2017 00:00	172	1.9 million			-	-	-	United States, The Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, Other countries, Dominican Republic, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Anguilla, Saint Martin, Sint Maarten, Saint Barthelemy, Saba (Netherlands), Sint Eustatius (Netherlands), Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat
10	20 Sep 2017 12:00	132	420 thousand		-	-	-	-	Ireland, United States, Turks and Caicos Islands, Other countries, Dominican Republic, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands
11	21 Sep 2017 00:00	130	10 thousand		-	-	-	-	Ireland, Canada, United States, The Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, Other countries, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico
12	21 Sep 2017 12:00	129	10 thousand		-	-	-	-	Ireland, Canada, United States, Turks and Caicos Islands, Other countries, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico
13	22 Sep 2017 00:00	111	-	-	-	-	-	-	Ireland, Canada, United States, Turks and Caicos Islands, Other countries, Dominican Republic
14	22 Sep 2017 12:00	103	-	-	-	-	-	-	Ireland, Canada, United States, Turks and Caicos Islands, Other countries
15	23 Sep 2017 00:00	82	-	-	-	-	-	-	Ireland, Canada
16	23 Sep 2017 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	Ireland, Canada
17	24 Sep 2017 00:00	69	-	-	-	-	-	-	United States
18	24 Sep 2017 12:00	81	-	-	-	-	-	-	United States
19	25 Sep 2017 00:00	77	-	-	-	-	-	-	United States
20	25 Sep 2017 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	United States
21	26 Sep 2017 00:00	73	-	-	-	-	-	-	Ireland, United States
22	26 Sep 2017 12:00	75	-	-	-	-	-	-	United States

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 26 Sep 2017 12:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	16 Sep 2017 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 Sep 2017 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 Sep 2017 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 Sep 2017 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	18 Sep 2017 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	18 Sep 2017 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	19 Sep 2017 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	19 Sep 2017 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	20 Sep 2017 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	20 Sep 2017 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	21 Sep 2017 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	21 Sep 2017 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	22 Sep 2017 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	22 Sep 2017 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	23 Sep 2017 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	23 Sep 2017 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	24 Sep 2017 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	24 Sep 2017 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	25 Sep 2017 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	25 Sep 2017 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	26 Sep 2017 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	26 Sep 2017 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

2.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 2.6m in Barachois, Canada. This height is estimated for 29 Sep 2017 08:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 26 Sep 2017 12:00 UTC

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Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.