Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for ALVIN-19 Off-shore from 25 Jun 2019 21:00 UTC to 29 Jun 2019 12:00 UTC

28 Jun 2019 18 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ALVIN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	122 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (01 Jul 10:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	122 km/h	0.2 m	436 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	122 km/h	0.2 m	436 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 28 Jun 2019 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	25 Jun 2019 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	26 Jun 2019 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	26 Jun 2019 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	26 Jun 2019 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	26 Jun 2019 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	27 Jun 2019 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	27 Jun 2019 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	27 Jun 2019 12:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	27 Jun 2019 18:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	28 Jun 2019 00:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	28 Jun 2019 06:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	28 Jun 2019 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	28 Jun 2019 18:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Mexico	1,078,436
50-100 mm	Mexico	26,182,704

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	25 Jun 2019 18:00	51	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	26 Jun 2019 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	26 Jun 2019 06:00	110	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	26 Jun 2019 12:00	95	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	26 Jun 2019 18:00	128	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	27 Jun 2019 00:00	145	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	27 Jun 2019 06:00	114	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	27 Jun 2019 12:00	125	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	27 Jun 2019 18:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	28 Jun 2019 00:00	114	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	28 Jun 2019 06:00	167	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	28 Jun 2019 12:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	28 Jun 2019 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in La Ventana, Mexico. This height is estimated for 01 Jul 2019 10:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 28 Jun 2019 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	01 Jul 2019 10:00	La Ventana	Mexico	0.2
	01 Jul 2019 10:00	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.2
	01 Jul 2019 10:00	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.2
	01 Jul 2019 10:15	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	30 Jun 2019 02:30	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	30 Jun 2019 02:30	Los Burros	Mexico	0.2
	01 Jul 2019 10:30	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	01 Jul 2019 10:30	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	29 Jun 2019 21:15	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	29 Jun 2019 21:15	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	29 Jun 2019 20:30	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	29 Jun 2019 20:30	La Boca	Mexico	0.2
	29 Jun 2019 21:15	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.2
	29 Jun 2019 21:15	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	30 Jun 2019 02:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	29 Jun 2019 20:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	29 Jun 2019 21:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	30 Jun 2019 02:45	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	01 Jul 2019 10:00	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.2
	29 Jun 2019 07:30	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	29 Jun 2019 07:30	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	29 Jun 2019 20:45	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	30 Jun 2019 04:00	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.1
	30 Jun 2019 04:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.1
	30 Jun 2019 02:30	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.1
	26 Jun 2019 17:45	San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	26 Jun 2019 17:45	Monteon	Mexico	0.1
	26 Jun 2019 17:45	La Lima	Mexico	0.1
	30 Jun 2019 02:00	San Blas	Mexico	0.1
	01 Jul 2019 10:15	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.1
	30 Jun 2019 02:45	Altata	Mexico	0.1
	30 Jun 2019 09:45	La Florida	Mexico	0.1
	30 Jun 2019 09:45	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.1
	01 Jul 2019 10:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	01 Jul 2019 09:45	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	01 Jul 2019 10:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	01 Jul 2019 09:45	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	29 Jun 2019 21:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	01 Jul 2019 11:00	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.1
	01 Jul 2019 09:45	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	30 Jun 2019 02:00	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	30 Jun 2019 02:00	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	01 Jul 2019 10:00	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	01 Jul 2019 10:00	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	01 Jul 2019 10:00	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	01 Jul 2019 10:00	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	01 Jul 2019 10:00	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	01 Jul 2019 09:45	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	30 Jun 2019 02:15	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	01 Jul 2019 09:45	Marmol	Mexico	0.1
	01 Jul 2019 09:45	Florida	Mexico	0.1
	01 Jul 2019 09:45	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	01 Jul 2019 09:45	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	28 Jun 2019 13:30	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.1
	29 Jun 2019 20:15	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.1
	29 Jun 2019 20:15	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.1