Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19
in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
05 Dec 2019 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Seychelles, Madagascar
Exposed population Few people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 94 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (05 Dec 05:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 94 km/h 0.2 m 263 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 212 km/h 0.5 m 661 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

212 km/h

Up to 230 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Seychelles, Madagascar469
+
Seychelles138 
Madagascar331 
Tropical StormSeychelles, Madagascar227,840
+
Seychelles78 
Madagascar227,762 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Dec 2019 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 05 Dec 2019 00:00 209 Few people
- - - - Seychelles, Madagascar
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmSeychelles, Madagascar26,388
+
Seychelles138 
Madagascar26,250 
100-250 mmSeychelles, Madagascar, Mayotte594,272
+
Seychelles291 
Madagascar507,633 
Mayotte86,348 
50-100 mmSeychelles, Comoros, Mayotte, Madagascar515,035
+
Seychelles278 
Comoros102 
Madagascar451,927 
Mayotte62,728 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Dec 2019 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 05 Dec 2019 00:00 680 620 thousand
- - - Seychelles, Comoros, Madagascar, Mayotte




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Zanzibar, Tanzania. This height is estimated for 05 Dec 2019 05:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
05 Dec 2019 05:30 Zanzibar Tanzania  0.2
05 Dec 2019 05:30 Kiembi Samaki Tanzania  0.2
05 Dec 2019 05:30 Mchamba Wima Tanzania  0.2
05 Dec 2019 05:30 Fumba Tanzania  0.2
05 Dec 2019 05:30 Kibele Tanzania  0.2
05 Dec 2019 05:30 Uzi Tanzania  0.2
05 Dec 2019 05:30 Mapopwe Tanzania  0.2
05 Dec 2019 05:30 Chwaka Tanzania  0.2
05 Dec 2019 05:30 Kitogani Tanzania  0.2
05 Dec 2019 05:30 Kijini Tanzania  0.2
05 Dec 2019 05:15 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:15 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:15 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:15 Vila de Mocimboa da Praia Mozambique  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:15 Libambai Mozambique  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:15 Meronvi Mozambique  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:15 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:15 Tsinjorano Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:15 Amboaboaka Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:15 Matahibory Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:15 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:15 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Mkwaja Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 06:00 Bumbwini Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Bet-el-Mali Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:30 Bevatry Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:30 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:30 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 06:00 Sadani Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Donge Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:15 Quissengue Mozambique  0.1
05 Dec 2019 06:00 Mkokotoni Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 06:00 Mkuuni Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:15 Somanga Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:15 Pombwe Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:15 Jaja Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:00 Kilindoni Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:30 Mkarangama Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:30 Kipingwe Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:30 Kirongwe Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:30 Jimbo Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:30 Bwereu Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:00 Mbweni Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:00 Doriya Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 06:00 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
05 Dec 2019 06:00 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
05 Dec 2019 06:00 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
05 Dec 2019 02:15 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 02:15 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Andriana Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Ankaranakatra Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Marovoha Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Antonibe Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Antantiloky Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:30 Kiombani Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:30 Mwera Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:15 Sakura Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 06:00 Ambolikapika Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 02:15 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:15 Mchungu Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:15 Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Ampitily Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:15 Banda Kuu Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:00 Kisiju Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 06:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 06:00 Ampondrahazo Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 06:00 Ambolobozokely Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 06:00 Ambaritsatrana Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:15 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:15 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:15 Mbwera Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 02:15 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 02:15 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 02:15 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:30 Konduchi Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:30 Gazija Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:15 Tsianinkiro Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 06:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 06:00 Ambohimena Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 02:15 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:15 Matapatapa Tanzania  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:00 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:00 Androlavy Madagascar  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1