Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for NORBERT-20 Off-shore from 05 Oct 2020 21:00 UTC to 15 Oct 2020 09:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NORBERT-20

Off-shore

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORBERT-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	43 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (11 Oct 05:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	43 km/h	0.2 m	119 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	76 km/h	0.2 m	749 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

76 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2020 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	05 Oct 2020 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Oct 2020 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	06 Oct 2020 00:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	06 Oct 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	07 Oct 2020 00:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	07 Oct 2020 12:00	43	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	08 Oct 2020 00:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	08 Oct 2020 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	09 Oct 2020 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	09 Oct 2020 12:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	10 Oct 2020 00:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	10 Oct 2020 12:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	11 Oct 2020 00:00	43	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2020 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Mexico	9,265

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	05 Oct 2020 00:00	318	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Oct 2020 12:00	243	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	06 Oct 2020 00:00	290	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	06 Oct 2020 12:00	224	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	07 Oct 2020 00:00	201	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	07 Oct 2020 12:00	456	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	08 Oct 2020 00:00	249	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	08 Oct 2020 12:00	361	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	09 Oct 2020 00:00	217	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	09 Oct 2020 12:00	216	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	10 Oct 2020 00:00	231	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	10 Oct 2020 12:00	375	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	11 Oct 2020 00:00	280	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 11 Oct 2020 05:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2020 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	11 Oct 2020 05:45	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.2
	11 Oct 2020 07:30	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.1
	11 Oct 2020 10:00	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.1
	11 Oct 2020 09:15	San Rafael	Mexico	0.1
	11 Oct 2020 07:15	La Choya	Mexico	0.1
	11 Oct 2020 05:15	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.1
	11 Oct 2020 11:30	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.1
	11 Oct 2020 01:00	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.1
	11 Oct 2020 12:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.1
	11 Oct 2020 12:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.1
	11 Oct 2020 12:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	11 Oct 2020 01:45	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.1
	11 Oct 2020 07:00	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.1
	11 Oct 2020 06:15	San Felipe	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.