Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for EIGHTEEN-21 in Australia from 31 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC to 05 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for EIGHTEEN-21

in Australia

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EIGHTEEN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	54 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (02 Feb 21:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	54 km/h	0.3 m	15 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	94 km/h	1.0 m	466 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

94 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 02 Feb 2021 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	31 Jan 2021 12:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
2	31 Jan 2021 18:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
3	01 Feb 2021 00:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
4	01 Feb 2021 06:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	01 Feb 2021 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	01 Feb 2021 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	02 Feb 2021 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	02 Feb 2021 06:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Feb 2021 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Australia	12
100-250 mm	Australia	154
50-100 mm	Australia	3,305

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	31 Jan 2021 12:00	19	Few people	-	-	-	-	-	-	Australia
2	31 Jan 2021 18:00	20	Few people	-	-	-	-	-	-	Australia
3	01 Feb 2021 00:00	18	Few people	-	-	-	-	-	-	Australia
4	01 Feb 2021 06:00	19	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	01 Feb 2021 12:00	18	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	01 Feb 2021 18:00	18	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	02 Feb 2021 00:00	14	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	02 Feb 2021 06:00	542	Few people				-	-	-	Australia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Point Samson, Australia. This height is estimated for 02 Feb 2021 21:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 02 Feb 2021 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	02 Feb 2021 21:30	Point Samson	Australia	0.3
	02 Feb 2021 21:30	Cossack	Australia	0.3
	02 Feb 2021 12:45	Dampier	Australia	0.3
	02 Feb 2021 12:45	Karratha	Australia	0.3
	02 Feb 2021 06:00	East Lewis I	Australia	0.3
	02 Feb 2021 07:00	Mardie	Australia	0.3
	02 Feb 2021 06:00	Wickham	Australia	0.3
	05 Feb 2021 02:30	Dirk Hartog	Australia	0.3
	05 Feb 2021 02:30	Useless Loop	Australia	0.3
	02 Feb 2021 14:15	Onslow	Australia	0.2
	02 Feb 2021 08:15	Gregory	Australia	0.2
	02 Feb 2021 08:15	Lynton	Australia	0.2
	05 Feb 2021 05:00	Carrarang	Australia	0.2
	05 Feb 2021 05:00	Tamala	Australia	0.2
	02 Feb 2021 17:00	Milyeannup	Australia	0.2
	05 Feb 2021 06:00	Denham	Australia	0.2
	05 Feb 2021 00:00	Nanga	Australia	0.2
	04 Feb 2021 22:45	Hamelin Pool	Australia	0.2
	04 Feb 2021 22:45	Hamelin	Australia	0.2
	05 Feb 2021 06:00	Shark Bay	Australia	0.2
	05 Feb 2021 06:00	Monkey Mia	Australia	0.2
	02 Feb 2021 08:15	Horrocks	Australia	0.2
	02 Feb 2021 17:00	Augusta	Australia	0.2
	02 Feb 2021 06:00	Glenroy	Australia	0.2
	05 Feb 2021 03:30	Gladstone	Australia	0.2
	02 Feb 2021 16:30	Learmonth	Australia	0.2
	05 Feb 2021 03:30	Carnarvon	Australia	0.2
	02 Feb 2021 09:15	Warroora	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 15:15	Exmouth	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 22:30	Ah Chong I	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 08:15	Kalbarri	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 09:15	Gnaraloo	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 16:30	Dalyellup	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 16:30	Bunbury	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 16:30	Binningup	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 16:30	Picton	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 16:30	Eaton	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 16:30	Burragenup	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 16:30	Australind	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 08:15	Drummond Cove	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 08:15	Popes Landing	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 08:15	Waggrakine	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 09:15	Cardabia	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 16:45	Myalup	Australia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 01:00	Cape Cuvier	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 16:30	Ludlow	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 08:00	Geraldton	Australia	0.1
	05 Feb 2021 02:30	Quobba	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 17:00	Hamelin Bay	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 22:30	Muntjar	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 22:30	Blimbing	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 22:30	Dadapan	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 22:30	Banyuwangi	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 22:30	Banjuwangi	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 22:30	Gilimanuk	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 22:30	Penginoeman	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 22:30	Belimbingsari	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 22:30	Tjandikesuma	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 17:00	Ningaloo	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 10:45	Kekatang	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 10:45	Menango	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 10:45	Tandjungkarang	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 10:45	Telukbetung	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 10:45	Tarahan	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 23:00	Guring	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 23:00	Kota Agung	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 15:15	Tjikawung	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 15:15	Sumur	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 15:15	Aerdjeruk	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 15:15	Babakancibeber	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 11:00	Umbulan Pepanggar	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 11:00	Kalianda	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 17:00	Bundera Bundera	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 16:30	Vasse	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 16:30	Broadwater	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 16:30	Busselton	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 16:30	Wonnerup	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 11:30	Kolitjaah	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 11:30	Tjiteureup	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 11:30	Labuhan	Indonesia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 11:30	Kaduperasi	Indonesia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.