Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KULAP-22
Off-shore
26 Sep 2022 12 UTC
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Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KULAP-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Japan
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 151 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.0 m (26 Sep 15:15 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 151 km/h 1.0 m 283 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 151 km/h 1.0 m 283 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormJapan1,633 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Sep 2022 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 25 Sep 2022 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 26 Sep 2022 00:00 83 -
- - - - - Japan
GREEN 4 26 Sep 2022 12:00 151 -
- - - - - Japan
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Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

283 mm

Up to 130 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmPhilippines127,837 
50-100 mmRussia, Japan, Philippines, Micronesia15,499,360
+
Russia4,293 
Japan12,285,842 
Philippines3,200,465 
Micronesia8,758 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Sep 2022 00:00 93 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 25 Sep 2022 12:00 116 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Sep 2022 00:00 162 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Sep 2022 12:00 282 10 thousand
- - - - Japan, Philippines




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.5 - 1.0 mRussia, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Philippines592,919
+
Russia14,957 
Japan189,974 
North Korea19,468 
South Korea172,484 
Philippines196,034 
0.25 - 0.5 mRussia, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Philippines2,603,084
+
Russia13,475 
Japan2,161,798 
North Korea54,756 
South Korea247,429 
Philippines125,623 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 26 Sep 2022 12:00 UTC