Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IRVING-18
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 102100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180110191100
2018011018 04S IRVING 020 02 165 33 SATL 060
T000 334S 0693E 040 R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 406S 0751E 040 R034 300 NE QD 345 SE QD 310 SW QD 225 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 33.4S 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 33 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.4S 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 40.6S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
345 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 35.2S 70.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 10147 NM


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 102100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180110191100
2018011018 04S IRVING 020 02 165 33 SATL 060
T000 334S 0693E 040 R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 406S 0751E 040 R034 300 NE QD 345 SE QD 310 SW QD 225 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 33.4S 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 33 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.4S 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 40.6S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
345 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 35.2S 70.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 10147 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MAZATLAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
33 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0418010406 98S 947E 20
0418010412 101S 946E 20
0418010418 104S 944E 20
0418010500 107S 940E 20
0418010506 112S 938E 25
0418010512 119S 933E 25
0418010518 123S 925E 30
0418010600 125S 916E 35
0418010606 126S 904E 35
0418010612 128S 893E 40
0418010618 129S 882E 45
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90
0418010900 201S 751E 85
0418010900 201S 751E 85
0418010900 201S 751E 85
0418010906 213S 735E 75
0418010906 213S 735E 75
0418010906 213S 735E 75
0418010912 225S 721E 70
0418010912 225S 721E 70
0418010912 225S 721E 70
0418010918 239S 705E 65
0418010918 239S 705E 65
0418011000 255S 693E 55
0418011000 255S 693E 55
0418011006 275S 684E 45
0418011012 302S 682E 40
0418011018 334S 693E 40


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 102100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 33.4S 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 33 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.4S 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 40.6S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
345 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 35.2S 70.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1030 NM
SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 33 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION, DISPLACED OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 101754Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS BROAD,


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 33.4S 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 33 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.4S 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 40.6S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
345 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 35.2S 70.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1030 NM
SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 33 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION, DISPLACED OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 101754Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS BROAD,
DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER WITH ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. TC 04S IS RAPIDLY
UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 12 AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN A STRONG
MIDLATITUDE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. OVERALL, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 20 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 101500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180110134355
2018011012 04S IRVING 019 03 185 27 SATL 035
T000 302S 0682E 040 R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD 135 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 364S 0713E 035 R034 270 NE QD 255 SE QD 175 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 428S 0767E 035 R034 245 NE QD 255 SE QD 270 SW QD 190 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 019
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 30.2S 68.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.2S 68.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 36.4S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 101500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180110134355
2018011012 04S IRVING 019 03 185 27 SATL 035
T000 302S 0682E 040 R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD 135 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 364S 0713E 035 R034 270 NE QD 255 SE QD 175 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 428S 0767E 035 R034 245 NE QD 255 SE QD 270 SW QD 190 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 019
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 30.2S 68.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.2S 68.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 36.4S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 42.8S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 31.8S 69.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 846 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 27
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0418010406 98S 947E 20
0418010412 101S 946E 20
0418010418 104S 944E 20
0418010500 107S 940E 20
0418010506 112S 938E 25
0418010512 119S 933E 25
0418010518 123S 925E 30
0418010600 125S 916E 35
0418010606 126S 904E 35
0418010612 128S 893E 40
0418010618 129S 882E 45
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90
0418010900 201S 751E 85
0418010900 201S 751E 85
0418010900 201S 751E 85
0418010906 213S 735E 75
0418010906 213S 735E 75
0418010906 213S 735E 75
0418010912 225S 721E 70
0418010912 225S 721E 70
0418010912 225S 721E 70
0418010918 239S 705E 65
0418010918 239S 705E 65
0418011000 255S 693E 55
0418011000 255S 693E 55
0418011006 275S 684E 45
0418011012 302S 682E 40


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 101500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 019
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 30.2S 68.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.2S 68.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 36.4S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 42.8S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 019
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 30.2S 68.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.2S 68.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 36.4S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 42.8S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 31.8S 69.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 846 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 27
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF CURRENT
INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
FEEDING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET WITH WIND SHEAR STARTING INCREASE.
TC 04S IS TRACKING EXPEDITIOUSLY AT 24 KNOTS ALONG THE WESTERN
BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS TC 04S WILL ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE
RIDGE AXIS AND INTO A FAST APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AND BEGIN
TRANSITIONING INTO A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. TC 04S WILL RAPIDLY COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY TIGHT GROUPING AND
OVERALL AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S
(FIVE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 101214
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 10/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-IRVING) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.9 S / 68.2 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 25 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDED TO
150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND 300 NM TO SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 280 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/11 AT 00 UTC:
36.6 S / 71.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/01/11 AT 12 UTC:
42.8 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THIS IS LAST BULLETIN ON THE SYSTEM EX-IRVING. IT WILL BE STILL
MONITORED IN THE FQIO20 FMEE BULLETIN.=


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 100900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180110082705
2018011006 04S IRVING 018 03 200 22 SATL 030
T000 275S 0684E 045 R034 140 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 330S 0691E 040 R034 240 NE QD 230 SE QD 125 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 400S 0746E 035 R034 310 NE QD 295 SE QD 335 SW QD 350 NW QD
T036 471S 0803E 035 R034 385 NE QD 365 SE QD 545 SW QD 570 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 018
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 27.5S 68.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5S 68.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 33.0S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 41 KTS


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 100900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180110082705
2018011006 04S IRVING 018 03 200 22 SATL 030
T000 275S 0684E 045 R034 140 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 330S 0691E 040 R034 240 NE QD 230 SE QD 125 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 400S 0746E 035 R034 310 NE QD 295 SE QD 335 SW QD 350 NW QD
T036 471S 0803E 035 R034 385 NE QD 365 SE QD 545 SW QD 570 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 018
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 27.5S 68.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5S 68.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 33.0S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 41 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 40.0S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
335 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
350 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 41 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 47.1S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 385 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
365 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
545 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
570 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 28.9S 68.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 753 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0418010406 98S 947E 20
0418010412 101S 946E 20
0418010418 104S 944E 20
0418010500 107S 940E 20
0418010506 112S 938E 25
0418010512 119S 933E 25
0418010518 123S 925E 30
0418010600 125S 916E 35
0418010606 126S 904E 35
0418010612 128S 893E 40
0418010618 129S 882E 45
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90
0418010900 201S 751E 85
0418010900 201S 751E 85
0418010900 201S 751E 85
0418010906 213S 735E 75
0418010906 213S 735E 75
0418010906 213S 735E 75
0418010912 225S 721E 70
0418010912 225S 721E 70
0418010912 225S 721E 70
0418010918 239S 705E 65
0418010918 239S 705E 65
0418011000 255S 693E 55
0418011000 255S 693E 55
0418011006 275S 684E 45


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 100900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 018
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 27.5S 68.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5S 68.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 33.0S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 41 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 40.0S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
335 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
350 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 018
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 27.5S 68.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5S 68.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 33.0S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 41 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 40.0S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
335 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
350 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 41 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 47.1S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 385 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
365 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
545 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
570 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 28.9S 68.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 753 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM
WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND WEAK
CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO
45 KNOTS) AND A 100332Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWING A SOLID REGION OF 4O
KNOTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FEEDING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET
WITH WIND SHEAR STARTING INCREASE. TC 04S IS TRACKING EXPEDITIOUSLY
AT 22 KNOTS ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TC 04S WILL ACCELERATE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND INTO A FAST APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. TC
04S WILL RAPIDLY COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY TIGHT GROUPING AND OVERALL AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND
110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 100609
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 10/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-IRVING) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.6 S / 68.3 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 20 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDED TO
150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND 200 NM TO SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/10 AT 18 UTC:
33.3 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT,
24H, VALID 2018/01/11 AT 06 UTC:
41.0 S / 75.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT,

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 100300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180110015425
2018011000 04S IRVING 017 03 215 19 SATL 025
T000 255S 0693E 060 R050 095 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
135 NE QD 170 SE QD 210 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 299S 0686E 055 R050 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 225 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 355S 0709E 050 R050 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
195 NE QD 200 SE QD 110 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 424S 0752E 045 R034 265 NE QD 215 SE QD 160 SW QD 240 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 017
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 25.5S 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 100300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180110015425
2018011000 04S IRVING 017 03 215 19 SATL 025
T000 255S 0693E 060 R050 095 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 170 SE QD 210 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 299S 0686E 055 R050 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 225 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 355S 0709E 050 R050 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 200 SE QD 110 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 424S 0752E 045 R034 265 NE QD 215 SE QD 160 SW QD 240 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 017
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 25.5S 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 29.9S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 35.5S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 42.4S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 69.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 738 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0418010406 98S 947E 20
0418010412 101S 946E 20
0418010418 104S 944E 20
0418010500 107S 940E 20
0418010506 112S 938E 25
0418010512 119S 933E 25
0418010518 123S 925E 30
0418010600 125S 916E 35
0418010606 126S 904E 35
0418010612 128S 893E 40
0418010618 129S 882E 45
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90
0418010900 201S 751E 85
0418010900 201S 751E 85
0418010900 201S 751E 85
0418010906 213S 735E 75
0418010906 213S 735E 75
0418010906 213S 735E 75
0418010912 225S 721E 70
0418010912 225S 721E 70
0418010912 225S 721E 70
0418010918 239S 705E 65
0418010918 239S 705E 65
0418011000 255S 693E 60
0418011000 255S 693E 60


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 100300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 017
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 25.5S 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 29.9S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 017
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 25.5S 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 29.9S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 35.5S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 42.4S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 69.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 738 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DISSIPATING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC AND A 092302Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THAT REMAINING CONVECTION
IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND IS SHEARED AROUND 100 NM
FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS,
SLIGHTLY BELOW A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65
KNOTS) FROM PGTW BASED ON THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING
THROUGH AN AREA OF COOLER (25-26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND NO EQUATORWARD OUTLFOW. TC 04S IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TAU 12 AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS.
AFTER TAU 12 THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING
TOUGH WHICH WILL INTRODUCE HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH,
COMBINED WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
AND BEGIN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS. TC IRVING IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE THE TRANSITION BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 100017
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/01/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 10/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-IRVING) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.7 S / 69.2 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 20 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDED TO
200 MN TO SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/10 AT 12 UTC:
30.2 S / 67.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/01/11 AT 00 UTC:
35.8 S / 70.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 092100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180109194613
2018010918 04S IRVING 016 03 225 20 SATL 025
T000 239S 0705E 065 R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034
135 NE QD 175 SE QD 180 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 271S 0687E 055 R050 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 055 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 225 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 317S 0686E 050 R050 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
195 NE QD 200 SE QD 110 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 382S 0721E 045 R034 265 NE QD 215 SE QD 160 SW QD 240 NW QD
T048 449S 0770E 045 R034 360 NE QD 225 SE QD 385 SW QD 375 NW QD AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 016
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 23.9S 70.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 092100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180109194613
2018010918 04S IRVING 016 03 225 20 SATL 025
T000 239S 0705E 065 R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 175 SE QD 180 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 271S 0687E 055 R050 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 055 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 225 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 317S 0686E 050 R050 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 200 SE QD 110 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 382S 0721E 045 R034 265 NE QD 215 SE QD 160 SW QD 240 NW QD
T048 449S 0770E 045 R034 360 NE QD 225 SE QD 385 SW QD 375 NW QD AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 016
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 23.9S 70.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S 70.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 27.1S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 31.7S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 38.2S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 44.9S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 360 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
385 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
375 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 24.7S 70.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 769 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0418010406 98S 947E 20
0418010412 101S 946E 20
0418010418 104S 944E 20
0418010500 107S 940E 20
0418010506 112S 938E 25
0418010512 119S 933E 25
0418010518 123S 925E 30
0418010600 125S 916E 35
0418010606 126S 904E 35
0418010612 128S 893E 40
0418010618 129S 882E 45
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90
0418010900 201S 751E 85
0418010900 201S 751E 85
0418010900 201S 751E 85
0418010906 213S 735E 75
0418010906 213S 735E 75
0418010906 213S 735E 75
0418010912 225S 721E 70
0418010912 225S 721E 70
0418010912 225S 721E 70
0418010918 239S 705E 65
0418010918 239S 705E 65


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 092100 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 016//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 016

03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

091800Z --- NEAR 23.9S 70.5E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 20 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S 70.5E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

100600Z --- 27.1S 68.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 092100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 016//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 016

03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

091800Z --- NEAR 23.9S 70.5E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 20 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S 70.5E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

100600Z --- 27.1S 68.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 23 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

101800Z --- 31.7S 68.6E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 36 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

110600Z --- 38.2S 72.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 38 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

111800Z --- 44.9S 77.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

EXTRATROPICAL

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 360 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

385 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

375 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

---

REMARKS:

092100Z POSITION NEAR 24.7S 70.0E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 769 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT

20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY

DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH

PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL

POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM

A 091410Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND 091638Z METOP-B ASCAT

IMAGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THAT THE DEEP

CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND IS SHEARED

SLIGHTLY FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS

WHICH IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65

KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND IS HEDGED BELOW A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF.

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF

MODERATE TO HIGH (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING

THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A STRONG POLEWARD

OUTFLOW CHANNEL.TC 04S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE

WESTERN EXTENT OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO

THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH

TAU 12, AFTER WHICH THE TRACK WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY AS TC 04S

ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE

SYSTEM HAS BEGUN A WEAKENING TREND DUE TO A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AN

APPROACHING TOUGH WHICH WILL INTRODUCE HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR

WHICH, COMBINED WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE

THE WEAKENING TREND. TC IRVING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL

TRANSITION BY TAU 36 AND COMPLETE THE TRANSITION BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH JGSM BEING THE PRINCIPLE

WESTWARD OUTLIER, SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WIDER TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN

THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS. DESPITE THESE TWO OUTLIERS THE

OVERALL AGREEMENT OF THE REMAINING OUTLIERS LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN

THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z

IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.

REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR

SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNINGS

(WTXS33 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 091816

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/2/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 09/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.3 S / 70.8 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 26 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 460 SO: 460 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 350 SO: 350 NO: 130
48 KT NE: SE: 110 SO: 130 NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 10/01/2018 06 UTC: 28.9 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 10/01/2018 18 UTC: 34.4 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 11/01/2018 06 UTC: 40.2 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE




2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
IRVING SOUFFRE DU CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST (20KT
ANALYSE PAR LE CIMSS A 1200Z). L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE DE 1317Z MONTRE
CLAIREMENT LA CONVECTION REJETEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. LES
DERNIERES IMAGES INFRAROUGES MONTRENT UNE CONVECTION DE MOINS EN
MOINS INTENSE AVEC DES SOMMETS DE PLUS EN PLUS CHAUDS EN LIEN AVEC UN
CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE TRES FAIBLE. L'ESTIMATION DE
L'INTENSITE EST EN ACCORD AVEC LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1637TU QUI INDIQUE
DES VENTS ATTEIGNANT LA FORCE TEMPETE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.

IRVING POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE
NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE DANS SON
SUD-EST. DEMAIN, EN S'ENFONA ANT VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES, IRVING
VA COMMENCER A RECOURBER PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-EST
A L'AVANT D'UN PUISSANT ET LARGE TALWEG DES LATITUDES MOYENNES.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EST DESORMAIS
INSUFFISANT ET LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST
VA ENCORE SE RENFORCER. DES DEMAIN, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU ADOPTER UNE
STRUCTURE DE SECLUSION CHAUDE AVEC UN COEUR CHAUD PEU EPAIS AVANT DE
FUSIONNER JEUDI AVEC LE TALWEG DE SURFACE ASSOCIE A LA DEPRESSION
EX-IRVING QUI EST PREVUE TRANSITER AU SUD.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 091816

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/2/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3 S / 70.8 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 26 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 460 SW: 460 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 350 SW: 350 NW: 130
48 KT NE: SE: 110 SW: 130 NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/10 06 UTC: 28.9 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2018/01/10 18 UTC: 34.4 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/11 06 UTC: 40.2 S / 75.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
IRVING SUFFERS FROM THE MODERATE NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
(ANALYSED AT 1200Z NEAR 20KT BY CIMSS). 1317Z SSMIS MICROWAVE DATA
SHOW CLEARLY THE CONVECTION DISPLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE LAST INFRARED IMAGERIES SHOW A CONVECTION LESS AND LESS INTENSE
WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMER AND WARMER LINKED TO A VERY WEAK OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATION IS IN A GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
1637Z ASCAT SWATH THAT INDICATED STORM WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

IRVING TRACKS QUICKLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LOCATED ON ITS SOUTHEAST. TOMORROW, AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES, IT SHOULD CURVE PROGRESSIVELY
SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD A WIDE AND DEEP TROUGH.

ON THIS TRACK, THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS NOW INSUFFICIENT AND THE
NORTHWESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO STRENGTHENED. FROM
TOMORROW, THE SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE LIKE A WARM CORE SECLUSION WITH A
SHALLOW WARM CORE BEFORE MERGE WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
TO EX-AVA DEPRESSION.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 091808
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 09/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (IRVING) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3 S / 70.8 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 26 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDED TO
200 MN TO SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/10 AT 06 UTC:
28.9 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/01/10 AT 18 UTC:
34.4 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 091500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180109133721
2018010912 04S IRVING 015 02 240 18 SATL 030
T000 224S 0725E 070 R064 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 225 SE QD
210 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 256S 0699E 055 R050 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 055 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 225 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 299S 0689E 050 R050 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 025 SW QD 005 NW QD R034
195 NE QD 200 SE QD 110 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 358S 0714E 045 R034 265 NE QD 215 SE QD 160 SW QD 240 NW QD
T048 425S 0752E 045 R034 385 NE QD 225 SE QD 525 SW QD 515 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 22.4S 72.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 091500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180109133721
2018010912 04S IRVING 015 02 240 18 SATL 030
T000 224S 0725E 070 R064 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 225 SE QD 210 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 256S 0699E 055 R050 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 055 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 225 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 299S 0689E 050 R050 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 025 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 200 SE QD 110 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 358S 0714E 045 R034 265 NE QD 215 SE QD 160 SW QD 240 NW QD
T048 425S 0752E 045 R034 385 NE QD 225 SE QD 525 SW QD 515 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 22.4S 72.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 72.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 25.6S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 29.9S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 35.8S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 37 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 42.5S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 385 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
525 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
515 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 71.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 861 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0418010406 98S 947E 20
0418010412 101S 946E 20
0418010418 104S 944E 20
0418010500 107S 940E 20
0418010506 112S 938E 25
0418010512 119S 933E 25
0418010518 123S 925E 30
0418010600 125S 916E 35
0418010606 126S 904E 35
0418010612 128S 893E 40
0418010618 129S 882E 45
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90
0418010900 201S 751E 85
0418010900 201S 751E 85
0418010900 201S 751E 85
0418010906 215S 742E 75
0418010906 215S 742E 75
0418010906 215S 742E 75
0418010912 224S 725E 70
0418010912 224S 725E 70
0418010912 224S 725E 70


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 091500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 22.4S 72.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 72.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 25.6S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 22.4S 72.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 72.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 25.6S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 29.9S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 35.8S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 37 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 42.5S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 385 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
525 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
515 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 71.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 861 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION
BEING SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH WITH A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES AND AN 091020Z 37GHZ SSMI IMAGE THAT
WHEN COMPARED TO THE RESPECTIVE 89GHZ CHANNEL REFLECTS A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO
77 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED TO
THE EAST TO BE THE CAUSE OF OBSERVED WIND SHEAR WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS CREATING SOME CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. POLEWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST FEEDING INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST. TC 04S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE WILL KEEP TS 04S ON ITS CURRENT TRACK AND
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24 SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND THE RIDGE
AXIS. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 26 CELSIUS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DECLINE RAPIDLY AS TC 04S TRACKS POLEWARD. THE COOLER
WATERS COMBINED WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND BEGIN INTERACTING
WITH TC 04S BRINGING INCREASED WIND SHEAR AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
TC 04S WILL ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND RAPIDLY TRANSITION INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AFUM AND JGSM BEING NOTABLE
WESTWARD OUTLIERS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WIDER TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST.
DESPITE THESE TWO OUTLIERS THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY CLOSE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND
101500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 091217

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/2/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 09/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.3 S / 71.8 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 19 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/4.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 977 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 570 SO: 370 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 410 SO: 260 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SO: 90 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 10/01/2018 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 10/01/2018 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 11/01/2018 00 UTC: 34.7 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 11/01/2018 12 UTC: 42.1 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, SE
DISSIPANT



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5+ CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION LIEE A IRVING EST TRES
FLUCTUANTE. LA PASSE SSMI DE 1034UTC PERMET DE LOCALISER LE CENTRE
VERS 21.8S/72.5E. AINSI DANS CETTE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE DE IRVING,
LE CENTRE SE TROUVE DANS LA MASSE CONVECTIVE MAIS EN BORDURE NORD.

LES MODELES NUMERIQUES RESTENT ASSEZ CONSISTANTS AU FIL DES
DIFFERENTS RESEAUX. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE DU
CMRS SUR LE SYSTEME IRVING RESTE DONC ASSEZ SEMBLABLE PAR RAPPORT AUX
PRECEDENTES PREVISIONS, MEME SI LA CHRONOLOGIE DU VIRAGE EST UN PEU
AVANCEE. LA TRAJECTOIRE D'IRVING EST GOUVERNEE PAR LA PUISSANTE
DORSALE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME, AVANT D'ETRE CAPTURE EN COURS DE
JOURNA E DE MERCREDI PAR LE VASTE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE BAROCLINE
QUI AURA PREALABLEMENT ABSORBE AVA. DANS CET ENVIRONEMENT, IRVING
BASCULERA DANS UNE CLASSIFICATION DE DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE ET
RECOURBERA ALORS VERS UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-EST TOUJOURS TRES RAPIDE
AVANT DE FUSIONNER AVEC UN FRONT FROID.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 091217

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/2/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 71.8 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE
DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 19 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 570 SW: 370 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 410 SW: 260 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SW: 90 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/10 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 69.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/10 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 68.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/11 00 UTC: 34.7 S / 70.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/11 12 UTC: 42.1 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, DISSIPATING



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5+ CI=4.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTION RELATED TO IRVING IS VERY
FLUCTUATING. THE SSMI PASS AT 1034UTC ALLOWS TO LOCATE THE CENTER
NEAR 21.8S/72.5E. IN THIS SHEAR CONFIGURATION OF IRVING, WE CAN SAY
THAT THE CENTER IS IN THE CONVECTIVE MASS BUT NORTHERN EDGE.

NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN ENOUGH CONSISTENT OVER THE DIFFERENT ANALYSIS
TIME. RSMC'S TRACK AND INTENSTY FORECAST OF IRVING REMAINS SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECASTS, EVEN IF THE CHRONOLOGY OF THE RECURVATURE BEGINS
A LITTLE BEFORE. IRVING'S TRACK IS STEERED BY A STRONG RIDGE IN THE
SOUTH-EAST, BEFORE BEING CATCHED DURING WEDNESDAY BY A BROAD
BAROCLINIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PREVIOUSLY ABSORB AVA. IN
THIS CONTEXT, IRVING WILL SWITCH IN A CLASSIFICATION OF A
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND RECURVATURE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST AT A
STILL FAST MOTION IS EXPECTED BY THAT TIME. AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST RANGE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 091205
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 09/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (IRVING) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 71.8 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 19 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDED TO
100 MN TO SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 310 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/10 AT 00 UTC:
25.4 S / 69.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/10 AT 12 UTC:
29.5 S / 68.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 090900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180109080352
2018010906 04S IRVING 014 02 210 16 SATL 025
T000 215S 0742E 075 R064 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 120 SE QD 095 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 210 SE QD
130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 241S 0713E 065 R064 025 NE QD 050 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 110 SE QD 075 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 230 SE QD
175 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 277S 0692E 055 R050 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 055 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
195 NE QD 205 SE QD 130 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 325S 0695E 050 R050 095 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
230 NE QD 215 SE QD 135 SW QD 165 NW QD
T048 393S 0742E 045 R034 285 NE QD 235 SE QD 260 SW QD 360 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 21.5S 74.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 090900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180109080352
2018010906 04S IRVING 014 02 210 16 SATL 025
T000 215S 0742E 075 R064 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 095 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 210 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 241S 0713E 065 R064 025 NE QD 050 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 110 SE QD 075 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 230 SE QD 175 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 277S 0692E 055 R050 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 055 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 205 SE QD 130 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 325S 0695E 050 R050 095 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 215 SE QD 135 SW QD 165 NW QD
T048 393S 0742E 045 R034 285 NE QD 235 SE QD 260 SW QD 360 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 21.5S 74.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 74.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 24.1S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 27.7S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 32.5S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 39 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 39.3S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
360 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 73.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0418010406 98S 947E 20
0418010412 101S 946E 20
0418010418 104S 944E 20
0418010500 107S 940E 20
0418010506 112S 938E 25
0418010512 119S 933E 25
0418010518 123S 925E 30
0418010600 125S 916E 35
0418010606 126S 904E 35
0418010612 128S 893E 40
0418010618 129S 882E 45
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90
0418010900 201S 751E 85
0418010900 201S 751E 85
0418010900 201S 751E 85
0418010906 215S 742E 75
0418010906 215S 742E 75
0418010906 215S 742E 75


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 090900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 21.5S 74.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 74.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 24.1S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 21.5S 74.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 74.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 24.1S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 27.7S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 32.5S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 39 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 39.3S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
360 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 73.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH DETERIORATING BANDING FEATURES
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON RECENT
SATELLITE FIXES AND A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE OBSERVED IN AN
090409Z 89GHZ AMSU IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75
KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS) AND A 090230Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 72 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED TO THE EAST WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CREATING
SOME CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS
ROBUST FEEDING INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 04S IS
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE
WILL KEEP TS 04S ON ITS CURRENT TRACK AND SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24 SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE
CURRENTLY AROUND 26 CELSIUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE AS TC 04S
TRACKS POLEWARD. THE COOLER WATERS COMBINED WITH INCREASING WIND
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36 ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AND BEGIN INTERACTING WITH TC 04S BRINGING INCREASED WIND SHEAR
AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. TC 04S WILL ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND RAPIDLY TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090612

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/2/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 09/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.6 S / 73.9 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 18 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 570 SO: 370 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 410 SO: 260 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SO: 90 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/01/2018 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 10/01/2018 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 10/01/2018 18 UTC: 31.7 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 11/01/2018 06 UTC: 39.1 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, SE
DISSIPANT



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.0- CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONTRAINTE DE NORD-NORD-OUEST A
BIEN ATTENUE LA CONVECTION LIEE A IRVING. LES DERNIERES IMAGES
INFRAROUGES PERMETTENT D'ESTIMER QUE LE CENTRE SE TROUVE EN BORDURE
EST DE LA CONVECTION LA PLUS MARQUEE, CE QUE CONFIRMENT LES PASSES
SSMI DE 0138UTC ET AMSU-B DE 0231UTC. LA LOCALISATION DU CENTRE
MONTRE UNE LEGERE INFLECTION DANS LA TRAJECTOIRE.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE SUR LE SYSTEME IRVING
RESTE ROBUSTE AU COURS DES RESEAUX, MEME SI LA CHRONOLOGIE DU VIRAGE
EST UN PEU AVANCEE. LA TRAJECTOIRE D'IRVING RESTE GOUVERNEE PAR LA
PUISSANTE DORSALE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME, AVANT D'ETRE CAPTURE EN
COURS DE JOURNA E DE MERCREDI PAR LE VASTE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE
BAROCLINE QUI AURA PREALABLEMENT ABSORBE AVA. DANS CET ENVIRONEMENT,
IRVING BASCULERA DANS UNE CLASSIFICATION DE DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
ET RECOURBERA ALORS VERS UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-EST TOUJOURS TRES RAPIDE
AVANT DE FUSIONNER AVEC UN FRONT FROID.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090612

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/2/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 73.9 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY THREE
DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 570 SW: 370 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 410 SW: 260 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SW: 90 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/09 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 70.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/10 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 69.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/10 18 UTC: 31.7 S / 69.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/11 06 UTC: 39.1 S / 73.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, DISSIPATING



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0- CI=4.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE NORTH-NORTH-EASTERLY CONSTRAINT WAS WELL
ATTENUATED THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IRVING. THE LAST IR DATA
ALLOW TO LOCATE THE CENTER NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION,
WHICH CONFIRMS THE SSMI PASS AT 0138UTC AND AMSU-B AT 0231UTC. THE
LOCATION OF THE CENTER SHOWS A SLIGHT INFLECTION IN THE TRACK.

TRACK AND INTENSTY FORECAST OF IRVING REMAIN ROBUST DURING NUMERICAL
MODELS RUNS, EVEN IF THE CHRONOLOGY OF THE RECURVATURE BEGINS A
LITTLE BEFORE. IRVING'S TRACK IS STEERED BY A STRONG RIDGE IN THE
SOUTH-EAST, BEFORE BEING CATCHED DURING WEDNESDAY BY A BROAD
BAROCLINIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PREVIOUSLY ABSORB AVA. IN
THIS CONTEXT, IRVING WILL SWITCH IN A CLASSIFICATION OF A
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND RECURVATURE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST AT A
STILL FAST MOTION IS EXPECTED BY THAT TIME. AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST RANGE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 090603
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 09/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (IRVING) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 73.9 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 310 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/09 AT 18 UTC:
24.2 S / 70.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/10 AT 06 UTC:
27.1 S / 69.5 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 090300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 20.1S 75.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 75.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 22.3S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 090300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180109021601
2018010900 04S IRVING 013 02 240 19 SATL 020
T000 201S 0751E 085 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 115 SE QD 130 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 210 SE QD
195 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 223S 0721E 080 R064 025 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 230 SE QD
200 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 251S 0695E 075 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 110 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 215 SE QD
180 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 291S 0684E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 095 SE QD 055 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD
145 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 344S 0703E 055 R050 090 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
230 NE QD 205 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 432S 0798E 040 R034 200 NE QD 285 SE QD 415 SW QD 430 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 20.1S 75.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 090300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180109021601
2018010900 04S IRVING 013 02 240 19 SATL 020
T000 201S 0751E 085 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 115 SE QD 130 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 210 SE QD 195 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 223S 0721E 080 R064 025 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 230 SE QD 200 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 251S 0695E 075 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 215 SE QD 180 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 291S 0684E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 095 SE QD 055 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 145 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 344S 0703E 055 R050 090 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 205 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 432S 0798E 040 R034 200 NE QD 285 SE QD 415 SW QD 430 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 20.1S 75.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 75.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 22.3S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 25.1S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 29.1S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 34.4S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 43.2S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
415 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
430 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 74.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 795 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0418010406 98S 947E 20
0418010412 101S 946E 20
0418010418 104S 944E 20
0418010500 107S 940E 20
0418010506 112S 938E 25
0418010512 119S 933E 25
0418010518 123S 925E 30
0418010600 125S 916E 35
0418010606 126S 904E 35
0418010612 128S 893E 40
0418010618 129S 882E 45
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90
0418010900 201S 751E 85
0418010900 201S 751E 85
0418010900 201S 751E 85


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 20.1S 75.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 75.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 22.3S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 25.1S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 29.1S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 34.4S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 43.2S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
415 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
430 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 74.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 795 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS CENTRALLY LOCATED DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS OCCLUDING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
082157Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS
HEDGED ABOVE A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 83 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26 TO 27 CELSIUS). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A WELL DEFINED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AND NO ORGANIZED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 04S IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 36 WHEN IT WILL ROUND THE
RIDGE AXIS. AFTER ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY
ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AROUND TAU 48, TC IRVING WILL BEGIN THE EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) PROCESS, COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD
LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090112

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/2/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 09/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.3 S / 75.3 E
(VINGT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 17 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 973 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 570 SO: 500 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 410 SO: 240 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/01/2018 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 10/01/2018 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 10/01/2018 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 11/01/2018 00 UTC: 35.3 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 11/01/2018 12 UTC: 43.4 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, SE
DISSIPANT


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.0- CI=4.5-

LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE LA NUIT MONTRENT QUE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE
DE IRVING EST FORTEMENT IMPACTEE PAR LA HAUSSE DE LA CONTRAINTE DE
NORD-NORD-EST. LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE RESTE EN CENTRE NOYE SOUS LA
MASSE. LA LOCALISATION DU CENTRE EST EXTRAPOLEE DE LA PASS SSMI DE
2149Z.

TOUJOURS PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE SUR
LE SYSTEME IRVING. L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES SONT EN EXCELLENT ACCORD
SUR SON EVOLUTION, DEFINISSANT UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION.
LA TRAJECTOIRE D'IRVING RESTE GOUVERNEE PAR LA PUISSANTE DORSALE AU
SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. MERCREDI, IRVING DEVRAIT ETRE CAPTURE PAR LE
VASTE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE BAROCLINE QUI AURA PREALABLEMENT
ABSORBE AVA. LE SYSTEME RECOURBERA ALORS VERS LE SUD-EST SUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE TOUJOURS TRES RAPIDE AVANT DE FUSIONNER AVEC UN FRONT
FROID.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090112

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/2/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 75.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 570 SW: 500 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 410 SW: 240 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/09 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 72.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/10 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 69.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/10 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 68.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/11 00 UTC: 35.3 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/11 12 UTC: 43.4 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, DISSIPATING


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0- CI=4.5-

MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT SHOW A STRONGLY IMPACTED INNER-CORE BY
THE INCREASING NORTH-NORTH-EASTERLY CONSTRAINT. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
REMAINS EMBEDDED CENTER ANS THE POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE
SSMI PASS AT 2149Z.

STILL NO MAJOR CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST FOR IRVING, ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON ITS EVOLUTION,
THEREFORE THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST. IRVING'S TRACK
IS STEERED BY A STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST. WEDNESDAY, IRVING
SHOULD BE CATCH BY A BROAD BAROCLINIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
RECURVATURE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST AT A STILL FAST MOTION IS EXPECTED
BY THAT TIME. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 090029
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/01/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 09/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (IRVING) 973 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 75.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 17 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 310 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/09 AT 12 UTC:
22.6 S / 72.2 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/10 AT 00 UTC:
25.4 S / 69.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 082100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180108200645
2018010818 04S IRVING 012 02 240 15 SATL 030
T000 191S 0768E 090 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 115 SE QD 095 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 205 SE QD
185 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 212S 0739E 085 R064 025 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 230 SE QD
200 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 238S 0710E 075 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 005 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 110 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 215 SE QD
180 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 271S 0692E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 095 SE QD 055 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD
145 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 317S 0698E 055 R050 090 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
230 NE QD 205 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 429S 0767E 040 R034 260 NE QD 345 SE QD 475 SW QD 490 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 19.1S 76.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 082100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180108200645
2018010818 04S IRVING 012 02 240 15 SATL 030
T000 191S 0768E 090 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 115 SE QD 095 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 205 SE QD 185 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 212S 0739E 085 R064 025 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 230 SE QD 200 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 238S 0710E 075 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 215 SE QD 180 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 271S 0692E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 095 SE QD 055 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 145 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 317S 0698E 055 R050 090 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 205 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 429S 0767E 040 R034 260 NE QD 345 SE QD 475 SW QD 490 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 19.1S 76.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 76.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.2S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 23.8S 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 27.1S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 31.7S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 42.9S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
345 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
475 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
490 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 76.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 762 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0418010406 98S 947E 20
0418010412 101S 946E 20
0418010418 104S 944E 20
0418010500 107S 940E 20
0418010506 112S 938E 25
0418010512 119S 933E 25
0418010518 123S 925E 30
0418010600 125S 916E 35
0418010606 126S 904E 35
0418010612 128S 893E 40
0418010618 129S 882E 45
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010812 183S 782E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90
0418010818 191S 768E 90


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 082100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 19.1S 76.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 76.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.2S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 19.1S 76.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 76.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.2S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 23.8S 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 27.1S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 31.7S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 42.9S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
345 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
475 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
490 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 76.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 762 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CENTRALLY LOCATED PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OCCLUDING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 081604Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A
CLEARLY DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 91 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26 TO 27
DEGREES CELSIUS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A WELL
DEFINED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 04S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 36 AT WHICH TIME IT WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS
TURNING SOUTHWARD INITIALLY, BEFORE IT ACCELERATES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AROUND TAU 48, TC IRVING WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND START EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC
IRVING IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 WHEN IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TAKES ON FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 29
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 081915

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/2/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.2 S / 76.8 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 18 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 210 SE: 570 SO: 500 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 390 SO: 360 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/01/2018 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/01/2018 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 10/01/2018 06 UTC: 26.8 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 10/01/2018 18 UTC: 31.5 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 11/01/2018 06 UTC: 37.4 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.0+ CI=4.5+

LES EFFETS DE LA CONTRAINTE DE NORD-EST CONTINUENT DE SE FAIRE DE
PLUS EN PLUS SENTIR SUR LA CONVECTION PROFONDE. LA CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE SE DETERIORE MAINTENANT SENSIBLEMENT ET A EVOLUE EN CENTRE
NOYE SOUS LA MASSE. LA PASS ASCAT-A DE 1602Z A ETE TRES UTILE POUR
POSITIONNER LE CENTRE ET PRECISER LA STRUCTURE DU SYSTEME.

TOUJOURS PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE SUR
LE SYSTEME IRVING. L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES SONT EN EXCELLENT ACCORD
SUR SON EVOLUTION, DEFINISSANT ALORS UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LA
PREVISION. LA TRAJECTOIRE D'IRVING RESTE GOUVERNEE PAR LA PUISSANTE
DORSALE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, IRVING DEVRAIT
ETRE ATTIRE PAR LE PASSAGE DE LA DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE DU SYSTEME
EX-AVA, ET VENIR FUSIONNER DANS LE THALWEG ASSOCIE.

A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT EGALEMENT
FORTEMENT DIMINUER AU SUD DE 27S. IRVING DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR
PUIS ENTAMER UNE PHASE DE TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE AVANT DE SE
FONDRE JEUDI D'ABORD AVEC LE SYSTEME EX-AVA, PUIS DANS UN SYSTEME
BAROCLINE FRONTAL QUI CIRCULE AU SUD DE 40S.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 081915

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/2/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 76.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 210 SE: 570 SW: 500 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 390 SW: 360 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/09 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/01/09 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 70.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/10 06 UTC: 26.8 S / 68.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/10 18 UTC: 31.5 S / 68.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/11 06 UTC: 37.4 S / 73.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0+ CI=4.5+

THE EFFECTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONSTRAINT ARE MORE AND MORE VISIBLE
ON THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETRIORATED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND SHIFT FROM AN EYE PATTERN TO EMBEDDED CENTER.
ASCAT-A PASS OF 1602Z WAS USEFUL FOR POSITIONING THE CENTER AND
ASSESS THE WIND STRUCTURE.

STILL NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST FOR IRVING, ALL NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON ITS EVOLUTION, DEFINING THEN A
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST. IRVING'S TRACK IS STEERED BY A
STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST. FROM WEDNESDAY, IRVING SHOULD BE
ATTRACTED SOUTH-EASTWARDS TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES BY A TROUGH
ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST.

ON WEDNESDAY, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL WILL STRONGLY DECREASE SOUTH OF
27S. IRVING SHOULD THEN BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEFORE
MERGING WITH THE SYSTEM EX-AVA, THEN WITH A BAROCLINIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
CIRCULATING SOUTH OF 40S.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 081849
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (IRVING) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 76.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 195 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 210 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 310 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/09 AT 06 UTC:
21.0 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/09 AT 18 UTC:
23.6 S / 70.5 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 081500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180108133806
2018010812 04S IRVING 011 02 230 15 SATL 050
T000 185S 0783E 090 R064 030 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 105 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 190 SE QD
180 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 204S 0753E 080 R064 025 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 220 SE QD
190 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 229S 0724E 075 R064 020 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 240 SE QD
195 SW QD 105 NW QD
T036 257S 0700E 070 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 220 SE QD
175 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 299S 0696E 055 R050 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
210 NE QD 205 SE QD 125 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 403S 0748E 040 R034 265 NE QD 275 SE QD 330 SW QD 305 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 78.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 081500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180108133806
2018010812 04S IRVING 011 02 230 15 SATL 050
T000 185S 0783E 090 R064 030 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 105 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 204S 0753E 080 R064 025 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 220 SE QD 190 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 229S 0724E 075 R064 020 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 240 SE QD 195 SW QD 105 NW QD
T036 257S 0700E 070 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 220 SE QD 175 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 299S 0696E 055 R050 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 205 SE QD 125 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 403S 0748E 040 R034 265 NE QD 275 SE QD 330 SW QD 305 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 78.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 78.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 20.4S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 22.9S 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 25.7S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 29.9S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 40.3S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
305 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 77.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 763 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0418010406 98S 947E 20
0418010412 101S 946E 20
0418010418 104S 944E 20
0418010500 107S 940E 20
0418010506 112S 938E 25
0418010512 119S 933E 25
0418010518 123S 925E 30
0418010600 125S 916E 35
0418010606 126S 904E 35
0418010612 128S 893E 40
0418010618 129S 882E 45
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010800 167S 813E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010806 176S 795E 90
0418010812 185S 783E 90
0418010812 185S 783E 90
0418010812 185S 783E 90


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 081500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 78.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 78.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 20.4S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 78.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 78.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 20.4S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 22.9S 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 25.7S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 29.9S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 40.3S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
305 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 77.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 763 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION WHICH IS BEGINNING
TO DECREASE IN STRENGTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 081043Z
AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0
(90 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND A 081041Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 92 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND A WELL DEFINED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (26 TO 27 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 04S IS
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36 AND THEN TURN SOUTHWARD. BY TAU 48, TC 04S WILL
BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT). TC IRVING IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 081228

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/2/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 08/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.5 S / 77.9 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 17 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/5.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 966 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 480 SO: 300 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 300 SO: 240 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 170 SO: 110 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 09/01/2018 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/01/2018 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 10/01/2018 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 10/01/2018 12 UTC: 29.3 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 11/01/2018 00 UTC: 35.1 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.5+ CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LES EFFETS DE LA CONTRAINTE DE
NORD-EST SE FONT SE PLUS EN PLUS SENTIR SUR LA CONVECTION PROFONDE.
LES DERNIERES DONNA ES MICRO-ONDES (AMSR DE 0652UTC ET SSMIS DE
1019UTC) MONTRENT UN TILT ENTRE BASSES COUCHES ET ALTITUDE,
ET UNE FAIBLESSE DE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE D'IRVING LOCALISEE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE NORD-EST. CELLE-CI EST UNE REPONSE A LA CONTRAINTE DE
NORD-EST GRANDISSANTE QUI S'EXERCE SUR LE SYSTEM.


TOUJOURS PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE SUR
LE SYSTEME IRVING. L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES SONT EN EXCELLENT ACCORD
SUR SON EVOLUTION, DEFINISSANT ALORS UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LA
PREVISION. LA TRAJECTOIRE D'IRVING RESTE GOUVERNEE PAR LA PUISSANTE
DORSALE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, IRVING DEVRAIT
ETRE ATTIRE PAR LE PASSAGE DE LA DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE DU SYSTEME
EX-AVA, ET VENIR FUSIONNER DANS LE THALWEG ASSOCIE.

LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT D'IRVING LUI PERMET ENCORE DE LIMITER LES
EFFETS D'UNE CONTRAINTE MODEREE DE SECTEUR NORD-EST EN ALTITUDE.
LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL EST PREVU AUGMENTER EN COURS DE JOURNA E ET
EGALEMENT DEMAIN MERCREDI A L'AVANT DE LA DYNAMIQUE D'ALTITUDE,
AINSI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER UNE AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT DU FAIT
DE LA PERSISTANCE D'UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE POLAIRE ET UNE
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT QUI VA RESTER ELEVEE.

A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT EGALEMENT
FORTEMENT DIMINUER AU SUD DE 27S. IRVING DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR
PUIS ENTAMER UNE PHASE DE TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE AVANT DE SE
FONDRE JEUDI D'ABORD AVEC LE SYSTEME EX-AVA, PUIS DANS UN SYSTEME
BAROCLINE FRONTAL QUI CIRCULE AU SUD DE 40S.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 081228

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/2/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 77.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN
DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 966 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 480 SW: 300 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 300 SW: 240 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 170 SW: 110 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/09 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 75.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/01/09 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 72.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/10 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 69.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/10 12 UTC: 29.3 S / 68.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/01/11 00 UTC: 35.1 S / 70.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ CI=5.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EFFECTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONSTRAINTE
ARE MORE AND MORE VISIBLE ON THE DEEP CONVECTION. LAST MW DATA (AMSR
AT 0652UTC AND SSMIS AT 1019UTC) SHOW A TILT BETWEEN LOW LEVEL AND
UPPER LEVEL, AND A WEAKNESS IN IRVING'S CORE STRUCTURE IS LOCATED IN
THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CERCLE.
THIS IS AN ANSWER AT THE GROWING MID-LEVEL SHEAR CONSTRAINT ALREADY
EXISTING OVER THE SYSTEM.

STILL NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST FOR IRVING, ALL NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON ITS EVOLUTION, DEFINING THEN A
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST. IRVING'S TRACK IS STEERED BY A
STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST. FROM WEDNESDAY, IRVING SHOULD BE
ATTRACTED SOUTH-EASTWARDS TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES BY A TROUGH
ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST.

IRVING'S SPEED IS ALWAYS ALLOWING IT TO LIMIT THE EFFECTS OF AN UPPER
NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE TODAY AND ALSO ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER ATMOSPHERIC
DYNAMICS, SO THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY DUE TO THE
PERSISTING GOOD POLAR OUTFLOW, THE HIGH SPEED OF IRVING.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL WILL STRONGLY DECREASE SOUTH OF
27S. IRVING SHOULD THEN BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEFORE
MERGING WITH THE SYSTEM EX-AVA, THEN WITH A BAROCLINIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
CIRCULATING SOUTH OF 40S.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 081210
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (IRVING) 966 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 77.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 17 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 260 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 260 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/09 AT 00 UTC:
20.6 S / 75.2 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/09 AT 12 UTC:
22.6 S / 72.4 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 080900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180108073935
2018010806 04S IRVING 010 02 245 17 SATL 045
T000 176S 0798E 090 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 190 SE QD
165 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 194S 0769E 085 R064 025 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 230 SE QD
175 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 215S 0737E 075 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 225 SE QD
180 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 243S 0710E 070 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 220 SE QD
180 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 282S 0699E 055 R050 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
215 NE QD 210 SE QD 145 SW QD 075 NW QD
T072 384S 0729E 040 R034 265 NE QD 215 SE QD 145 SW QD 310 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 17.6S 79.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 080900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180108073935
2018010806 04S IRVING 010 02 245 17 SATL 045
T000 176S 0798E 090 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 190 SE QD 165 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 194S 0769E 085 R064 025 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 230 SE QD 175 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 215S 0737E 075 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 225 SE QD 180 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 243S 0710E 070 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 220 SE QD 180 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 282S 0699E 055 R050 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 210 SE QD 145 SW QD 075 NW QD
T072 384S 0729E 040 R034 265 NE QD 215 SE QD 145 SW QD 310 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 17.6S 79.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 79.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.4S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.5S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 24.3S 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 28.2S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 38.4S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
310 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 79.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 761 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0418010406 98S 947E 20
0418010412 101S 946E 20
0418010418 104S 944E 20
0418010500 107S 940E 20
0418010506 112S 938E 25
0418010512 119S 933E 25
0418010518 123S 925E 30
0418010600 125S 916E 35
0418010606 126S 904E 35
0418010612 128S 893E 40
0418010618 129S 882E 45
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010800 169S 814E 90
0418010800 169S 814E 90
0418010800 169S 814E 90
0418010806 176S 798E 90
0418010806 176S 798E 90
0418010806 176S 798E 90


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 080900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 17.6S 79.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 79.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.4S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 17.6S 79.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 79.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.4S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.5S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 24.3S 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 28.2S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 38.4S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
310 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 79.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 761 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION AND AN ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A
CLEARLY DEFINED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 080429Z AMSU
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A WELL DEFINED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE
(26 TO 27 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 04S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. BY TAU 48, TC 04S
WILL RE-CURVE AND ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC
IRVING IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080630

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/2/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 08/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.7 S / 79.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 480 SO: 300 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 300 SO: 240 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 170 SO: 110 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 08/01/2018 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/01/2018 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 09/01/2018 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 10/01/2018 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 10/01/2018 18 UTC: 32.2 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 11/01/2018 06 UTC: 39.2 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.0

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE EN OEIL S'EST
LEGEREMENT DETERIOREE LES IMAGES INFRAROUGES, COMME ANNONCE PAR LES
DONNES MICRO-ONDES DE LA NUIT MONTRANT UNE FAIBLESSE DE LA STRUCTURE
INTERNE D'IRVING LOCALISEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD-EST. CELLE-CI EST
UNE REPONSE A LA CONTRAINTE DE NORD-EST PRESENTE SUR LE SYSTEM.


TOUJOURS PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE SUR
LE SYSTEME IRVING. L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES SONT EN EXCELLENT ACCORD
SUR SON EVOLUTION, DEFINISSANT ALORS UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LA
PREVISION. LA TRAJECTOIRE D'IRVING RESTE GOUVERNEE PAR LA PUISSANTE
DORSALE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, IRVING DEVRAIT
ETRE ATTIRE PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES ET
PLONGER VERS LE SUD-EST.

LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT D'IRVING LUI PERMET ENCORE DE COMPENSER LES
EFFETS D'UNE CONTRAINTE MODEREE DE SECTEUR NORD-EST EN ALTITUDE.
L'INTENSIFICATION SEMBLE CEPENDANT STOPPER.
LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL EST PREVU AUGMENTER EN COURS DE JOURNA E ET
EGALEMENT DEMAIN MERCREDI A L'AVANT DE LA DYNAMIQUE D'ALTITUDE,
AINSI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER UNE AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT DU FAIT
DE LA PERSISTENCE D'UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE POLAIRE ET UNE
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT QUI VA RESTER ELEVEE.

A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT EGALEMENT
FORTEMENT DIMINUER AU SUD DE 27S. IRVING DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR
PUIS ENTAMER UNE PHASE DE TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE AVANT DE SE
FONDRE JEUDI DANS UN SYSTEME BAROCLINE FRONTAL QUI CIRCULE AU SUD DE
40S.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080630

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/2/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 79.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE
DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 480 SW: 300 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 300 SW: 240 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 170 SW: 110 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/08 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 77.0 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/01/09 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 74.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/09 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 71.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/10 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/01/10 18 UTC: 32.2 S / 69.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/11 06 UTC: 39.2 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN HAS STRENGTHENED ON THE
INFRARED IMAGERY AS INDICATING BY THE LAST MW IMAGES OF LAST NIGHT
SHOWING A WEAKNESS IN IRVING'S CORE STRUCTURE, LOCATED IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS IS AN ANSWER AT THE A MID-LEVEL SHEAR
CONSTRAINT ALREADY EXISTING OVER THE SYSTEM.

STILL NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST FOR IRVING, ALL NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON ITS EVOLUTION, DEFINING THEN A
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST. IRVING'S TRACK IS STEERED BY A
STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST. FROM WEDNESDAY, IRVING SHOULD BE
ATTRACTED SOUTH-EASTWARDS TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES BY A TROUGH
ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST.

IRVING'S SPEED IS ALWAYS ALLOWING IT TO COMPENSATE THE EFFECTS OF AN
UPPER NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT. THE INTENSIFICATION SEEMS
HOWEVER STOPPED. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE TODAYS AND
ALSO ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS, SO THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY DUE TO THE PERSISTING GOOD POLAR
OUTFLOW, THE HIGH SPEED OF IRVING.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL WILL STRONGLY DECREASE SOUTH OF
27S. IRVING SHOULD THEN BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEFORE
MERGING WITH A BAROCLINIC FRONTAL SYSTEM CIRCULATING SOUTH OF 40S.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 080627
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (IRVING) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 79.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 260 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/08 AT 18 UTC:
19.7 S / 77.0 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/09 AT 06 UTC:
21.7 S / 74.1 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 080300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180108011018
2018010800 04S IRVING 009 02 235 19 SATL 020
T000 169S 0814E 090 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD
155 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 186S 0786E 090 R064 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 215 SE QD
180 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 207S 0756E 080 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 220 SE QD
190 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 232S 0728E 075 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 115 SE QD 085 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 220 SE QD
190 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 264S 0706E 065 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 005 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 105 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 210 SE QD
170 SW QD 085 NW QD
T072 371S 0721E 055 R050 095 NE QD 050 SE QD 005 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
260 NE QD 210 SE QD 060 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 451S 0824E 040 R034 355 NE QD 135 SE QD 165 SW QD 365 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 81.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 080300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180108011018
2018010800 04S IRVING 009 02 235 19 SATL 020
T000 169S 0814E 090 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 155 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 186S 0786E 090 R064 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 215 SE QD 180 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 207S 0756E 080 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 220 SE QD 190 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 232S 0728E 075 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 115 SE QD 085 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 220 SE QD 190 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 264S 0706E 065 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 105 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 085 NW QD
T072 371S 0721E 055 R050 095 NE QD 050 SE QD 005 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 210 SE QD 060 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 451S 0824E 040 R034 355 NE QD 135 SE QD 165 SW QD 365 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 81.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 81.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.6S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 20.7S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.2S 72.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 26.4S 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 37.1S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 45.1S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 355 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
365 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 80.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 786 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0418010406 98S 947E 20
0418010412 101S 946E 20
0418010418 104S 944E 20
0418010500 107S 940E 20
0418010506 112S 938E 25
0418010512 119S 933E 25
0418010518 123S 925E 30
0418010600 125S 916E 35
0418010606 126S 904E 35
0418010612 128S 893E 40
0418010618 129S 882E 45
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010800 169S 814E 90
0418010800 169S 814E 90
0418010800 169S 814E 90


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 080300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 81.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 81.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.6S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 81.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 81.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.6S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 20.7S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.2S 72.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 26.4S 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 37.1S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 45.1S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 355 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
365 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 80.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 786 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND WITH AN ASYMMETRIC EYEWALL
SURROUNDING A RAGGED 15NM EYE. A 072204Z AMSU-B 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A
SLIGHT BREAK IN THE EYEWALL OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT WITH THE BULK OF
THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 04S IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR), AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48. TC 04S SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 90 KNOTS THROUGH
TAU 12 DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 48,
TC 04S WILL RE-CURVE AND ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) NEAR TAU 72. TC IRVING IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96
AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080043

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/2/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 08/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8 S / 81.4 E
(SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 964 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 580 SO: 400 NO: 180
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SO: 180 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 08/01/2018 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 09/01/2018 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 09/01/2018 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 10/01/2018 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 10/01/2018 12 UTC: 30.4 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 11/01/2018 00 UTC: 36.4 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/01/2018 00 UTC: 52.4 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.0

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE EN OEIL S'EST
CONSOLIDEE SUR LES IMAGES INFRAROUGES. CEPENDANT LES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 DE 1916Z ET SSMIS DE 2144Z MONTRENT UNE FAIBLESSE
DE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE D'IRVING LOCALISEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
NORD-EST. CELLE-CI EST PEUT-ETRE LIEE A UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. CELA POURRAIT RALENTIR LE RYTHME
D'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME.

TOUJOURS PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION SUR LE SYSTEME
IRVING. L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES SONT EN EXCELLENT ACCORD SUR SON
EVOLUTION, DEFINISSANT ALORS UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION.
LA TRAJECTOIRE D'IRVING RESTE GOUVERNEE PAR LA PUISSANTE DORSALE AU
SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, IRVING DEVRAIT ETRE ATTIRE
PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES ET PLONGER VERS LE
SUD-EST.

LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT D'IRVING LUI PERMET DE LARGEMENT COMPENSER
LES EFFETS D'UNE CONTRAINTE MODEREE DE SECTEUR NORD-EST EN ALTITUDE.
AINSI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT GARDER DES CONDITIONS ASSEZ FAVORABLES
JUSQU'A MARDI AVEC UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, QUI
POURRAIENT LUI PERMETTRE D'ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE. ENSUITE, LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT AUGMENTER A L'AVANT DE LA
DYNAMIQUE D'ALTITUDE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
DEVRAIT EGALEMENT FORTEMENT DIMINUER AU SUD DE 27S. IRVING DEVRAIT
ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR PUIS ENTAMER UNE PHASE DE TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE
AVANT DE SE FONDRE JEUDI DANS UN SYSTEME BAROCLINE FRONTAL QUI
CIRCULE AU SUD DE 40S.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080043

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/2/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 81.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 580 SW: 400 NW: 180
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 180 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/08 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 78.6 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/01/09 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/09 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 72.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/10 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 70.2 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/10 12 UTC: 30.4 S / 68.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/11 00 UTC: 36.4 S / 70.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/12 00 UTC: 52.4 S / 78.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN STRENGTHENED ON THE INFRARED
IMAGERY. HOWEVER, AMSR2 1916Z AND 2144Z SSMIS MW IMAGES SHOW A
WEAKNESS IN IRVING'S CORE STRUCTURE, LOCATED IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS COULD BE CAUSED BY A MID-LEVEL SHEAR CONSTRAINT AND
SLOW THE PACE OF INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.

STILL NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST FOR IRVING, ALL NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON ITS EVOLUTION, DEFINING THEN A GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST. IRVING'S TRACK IS STEERED BY A STRONG
RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST. FROM WEDNESDAY, IRVING SHOULD BE ATTRACTED
SOUTH-EASTWARDS TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES BY A TROUGH ARRIVING FROM
THE SOUTH-WEST.

IRVING'S SPEED IS ALLOWING IT TO TOTALLY COMPENSATE THE EFFECTS OF AN
UPPER NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT. THUS, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
TRACK WITHIN RATHER CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNTIL TUESDAY
WITH A VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE, AND POSSIBLY REACH THE INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THEN, AHEAD OF THE UPPER ATMOSPHERIC
DYNAMICS, THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY, THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL WILL STRONGLY DECREASE SOUTH OF 27S. IRVING SHOULD THEN
BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEFORE MERGING WITH A BAROCLINIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM CIRCULATING SOUTH OF 40S.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 080024
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/01/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (IRVING) 964 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 81.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 95
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 215 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 315 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/08 AT 12 UTC:
18.7 S / 78.6 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/09 AT 00 UTC:
20.8 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 072100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180107195846
2018010718 04S IRVING 008 02 230 15 SATL 020
T000 158S 0830E 090 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 170 SE QD
105 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 174S 0803E 095 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 200 SE QD
160 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 194S 0773E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 210 SE QD
160 SW QD 105 NW QD
T036 216S 0744E 080 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 220 SE QD
165 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 242S 0714E 070 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 115 SE QD 080 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 235 SE QD
175 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 321S 0688E 055 R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
210 NE QD 220 SE QD 135 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 437S 0767E 040 R034 245 NE QD 200 SE QD 070 SW QD 190 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 83.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 072100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180107195846
2018010718 04S IRVING 008 02 230 15 SATL 020
T000 158S 0830E 090 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 170 SE QD 105 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 174S 0803E 095 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 194S 0773E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 105 NW QD
T036 216S 0744E 080 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 220 SE QD 165 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 242S 0714E 070 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 115 SE QD 080 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 235 SE QD 175 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 321S 0688E 055 R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 135 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 437S 0767E 040 R034 245 NE QD 200 SE QD 070 SW QD 190 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 83.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 83.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.4S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.4S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.6S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 24.2S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 32.1S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 43.7S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 82.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 808 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0418010406 98S 947E 20
0418010412 101S 946E 20
0418010418 104S 944E 20
0418010500 107S 940E 20
0418010506 112S 938E 25
0418010512 119S 933E 25
0418010518 123S 925E 30
0418010600 125S 916E 35
0418010606 126S 904E 35
0418010612 128S 893E 40
0418010618 129S 882E 45
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010712 148S 842E 75
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010718 158S 830E 90
0418010718 158S 830E 90


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 072100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 83.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 83.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.4S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 83.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 83.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.4S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.4S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.6S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 24.2S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 32.1S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 43.7S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 82.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 808 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 04S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 45 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS (INCREASING INTENSITY FROM 45 KNOTS TO 90
KNOTS). ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH EYEWALL CONVECTION SURROUNDING AN
11NM EYE. A 071624Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE
EYEWALL OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0
FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 04S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. TC 04S
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 12 DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO PEAK AT A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER INTENSITY
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, TC 04S WILL RE-CURVE AND
ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES,
BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 72. TC IRVING IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
(AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071836

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/2/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 07/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.8 S / 83.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 18 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 979 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 580 SO: 400 NO: 180
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SO: 180 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 08/01/2018 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 08/01/2018 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 09/01/2018 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 09/01/2018 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 10/01/2018 06 UTC: 28.3 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 10/01/2018 18 UTC: 33.6 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE NUAGEUSE EN OEIL
S'EST PROGRESSIVEMENT AFFIRMEE. CET OEIL A TEMPORAIREMENT PRESENTE UN
ASPECT DECHIQUETE MAIS LE GAIN D'ORGANISATION EST SIGNIFICATIF ET
JUSTIFIE LE PASSAGE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. LES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 1257Z MONTRENT UN COEUR EN COURS DE
CONSOLIDATION MAIS DEJA ASSEZ ROBUSTE. LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EST
IMPRESSIONNANTE AVEC DES CANAUX D'EVACUATION TRES BIEN DA FINIS.

TOUJOURS PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION SUR LE SYSTEME
IRVING. L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES SONT EN EXCELLENT ACCORD SUR SON
EVOLUTION, DEFINISSANT ALORS UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION.
LA TRAJECTOIRE D'IRVING RESTE GOUVERNEE PAR LA PUISSANTE DORSALE AU
SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, IRVING DEVRAIT ETRE ATTIRE
PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES ET PLONGER VERS LE
SUD-EST.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT GARDER DES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES JUSQU'A MARDI
AVEC UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, QUI DEVRAIENT LUI
PERMETTRE DE S'INTENSIFIER ENCORE UN PEU PLUS. ENSUITE, LE
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT AUGMENTER A L'AVANT DE LA DYNAMIQUE D'ALTITUDE
ET ADVECTER DE L'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PRES DU CENTRE DU
SYSTEME. GRACE A LA VITESSE IMPORTANTE D'IRVING, LES EFFETS NEFASTES
DE CETTE CONTRAINTE DEVRAIENT ETRE LIMITES DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS. A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT EGALEMENT
FORTEMENT DIMINUER AU SUD DE 27S. IRVING DEVRAIT ALORS ENTAMER UNE
PHASE DE TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE AVANT DE SE FONDRE JEUDI DANS UN
SYSTEME BAROCLINE FRONTAL QUI CIRCULE AU SUD DE 40S.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071836

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/2/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 83.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 580 SW: 400 NW: 180
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 180 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/08 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/01/08 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 77.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/09 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/09 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 71.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/10 06 UTC: 28.3 S / 69.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/10 18 UTC: 33.6 S / 69.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN HAS PROGRESSIVELY
STRENGTHENED. THIS EYE TEMPORARILY EXHIBITED A RAGGED ASPECT BUT THIS
ORGANISATION GAIN JUSTIFIES AN UPGRADE OF IRVING TO THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE. 1257Z SSMIS IMAGES SHOW A CONSOLIDATING BUT ALREADY
ROBUST CORE. THE UPPER DIVERGENCE STILL LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON THE SAT
IMAGES WITH CLEAR EVACUATION CHANNELS.

STILL NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST FOR IRVING, ALL NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON ITS EVOLUTION, DEFINING THEN A GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST. IRVING'S TRACK IS STEERED BY A STRONG
RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST. FROM WEDNESDAY, IRVING SHOULD BE ATTRACTED
SOUTH-EASTWARDS TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES BY A TROUGH ARRIVING FROM
THE SOUTH-WEST.

THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO KEEP CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNTIL
TUESDAY WITH A VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE, ALLOWING IT TO INTENSIFY A
BIT FURTHER. THEN, AHEAD OF THE UPPER ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS, THE SHEAR
SHOULD INCREASE AND COULD ADVECT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR IRVING'S
CORE. THANKS TO ITS SIGNIFICANT SPEED, SHEAR NEGATIVE IMPACTS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN LIMITED FOR IRVING AT FIRST. ON WEDNESDAY, THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL WILL STRONGLY DECREASE SOUTH OF 27S. IRVING SHOULD
THEN BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEFORE MERGING WITH A
BAROCLINIC FRONTAL SYSTEM CIRCULATING SOUTH OF 40S.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 071825
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 07/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (IRVING) 979 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 83.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 95
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 215 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 315 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/08 AT 06 UTC:
17.4 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/08 AT 18 UTC:
19.7 S / 77.0 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 071500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180107151219
2018010712 04S IRVING 007 02 245 15 SATL 045
T000 145S 0843E 075 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 190 SE QD
165 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 158S 0817E 080 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 200 SE QD
160 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 172S 0796E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 210 SE QD
160 SW QD 105 NW QD
T036 193S 0765E 090 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 220 SE QD
165 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 215S 0737E 085 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 115 SE QD 080 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 235 SE QD
175 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 281S 0683E 055 R050 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
210 NE QD 220 SE QD 135 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 390S 0713E 040 R034 245 NE QD 200 SE QD 070 SW QD 190 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 14.5S 84.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 071500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180107151219
2018010712 04S IRVING 007 02 245 15 SATL 045
T000 145S 0843E 075 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 190 SE QD 165 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 158S 0817E 080 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 172S 0796E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 105 NW QD
T036 193S 0765E 090 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 220 SE QD 165 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 215S 0737E 085 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 115 SE QD 080 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 235 SE QD 175 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 281S 0683E 055 R050 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 135 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 390S 0713E 040 R034 245 NE QD 200 SE QD 070 SW QD 190 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 14.5S 84.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 84.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.8S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.2S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.3S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 21.5S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 28.1S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 39.0S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 83.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 825 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0418010406 98S 947E 20
0418010412 101S 946E 20
0418010418 104S 944E 20
0418010500 107S 940E 20
0418010506 112S 938E 25
0418010512 119S 933E 25
0418010518 123S 925E 30
0418010600 125S 916E 35
0418010606 126S 904E 35
0418010612 128S 893E 40
0418010618 129S 882E 45
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010706 139S 857E 65
0418010712 145S 843E 75
0418010712 145S 843E 75
0418010712 145S 843E 75


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 071500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 14.5S 84.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 84.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.8S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 14.5S 84.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 84.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.8S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.2S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.3S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 21.5S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 28.1S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 39.0S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 83.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 825 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A DEVELOPING EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 071033Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH REVEALS THE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5
(77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND DEVELOPING OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC
04S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. TC 04S SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 90
KNOTS BY TAU 36 BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. AFTER TAU 72, TC 04S WILL
RE-CURVE AND ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES, BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 72. TC
IRVING IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071309

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/2/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 07/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.5 S / 84.5 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 330 SO: 330 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 08/01/2018 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 08/01/2018 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 09/01/2018 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 09/01/2018 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 10/01/2018 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 10/01/2018 12 UTC: 31.4 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/01/2018 12 UTC: 41.6 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE S'EST A
NOUVEAU RENFORCE DANS UNE STRUCTURE EN BANDES INCURVEES . LES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES CONFIRMENT UNE CONSOLIDATION DU COEUR DE LA CIRCULATION.
EN ACCORD AVEC LES DONNEES COMPLEMENTAIRES DE LA PASSE ASCAT DE CE
MATIN, L'INTENSITE EST RELEVEE A 55KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION SUR LE SYSTEME IRVING,
L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES SONT BIEN EN ACCORD SUR SON EVOLUTION,
DEFINISSANT ALORS UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION. LA
TRAJECTOIRE D'IRVING RESTE GOUVERNEE PAR LA PUISSANTE DORSALE AU
SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, IRVING DEVRAIT ETRE ATTIRE
PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES ET PLONGER VERS LE
SUD-EST.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT GARDER DES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES JUSQU'A DEMAIN
SOIR AVEC UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. LE STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL EST DONC ATTENDU EN DEBUT DE JOURNEE PROCHAINE. ENSUITE, LE
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT AUGMENTER A L'AVANT DE LA DYNAMIQUE D'ALTITUDE.
MALGRE SA VITESSE IMPORTANTE, LES EFFETS NEFASTES DE CETTE CONTRAINTE
SONT PREVUS LIMITER DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS SON POTENTIEL
D'INTENSIFICATION PUIS FINIR PAR AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME MARDI. JEUDI LE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT EGALEMENT FORTEMENT DIMINUE AU SUD DE
27S. IRVING COMMENCERAIT ALORS SA TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071309

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/2/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 84.5 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 330 SW: 330 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/08 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/01/08 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/09 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 75.0 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/09 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/01/10 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 69.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/01/10 12 UTC: 31.4 S / 68.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/11 12 UTC: 41.6 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

DURING THE LAST HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION GOT STRONGER NEAR THE CENTER
IN A CURVED BAND PATTERN. MICROWAVE DATA CONFIRMED THE STRENGTHENING
OF THE INNER CORE. IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNING ADDITIONAL ASCAT
DATA, THE INTENSITY IS UPGRADED TO 55KT.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST ON THE IRVING SYSTEM, ALL NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE WELL IN AGREEMENT ON ITS EVOLUTION, DEFINING THEN A GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. IRVING'S TRACK IS STEERED BY A STRONG
RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST. FROM WEDNESDAY, IRVING SHOULD BE ATTRACTED
SOUTH-EASTWARDS TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES BY A TROUGH ARRIVING FROM
THE SOUTH-WEST.

THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO KEEP CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UP TO
TOMORROW EVENING WITH A VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. IT SHOULD REACH
TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS IN THE NEXT MORNING. THEN, AHEAD OF THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS DESPITE ITS SIGNIFICANT SPEED, SHEAR NEGATIVE
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT ITS DEEPENING POTENTIAL AND THEN WEAKEN
IRVING FROM TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL AS WELL WILL
DECAY SOUTH OF 27S. IRVING SHOULD THEN BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 071223
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 07/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (IRVING) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 84.5 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/08 AT 00 UTC:
16.7 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/08 AT 12 UTC:
19.1 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 070900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180107075934
2018010706 04S IRVING 006 02 235 16 SATL 060
T000 143S 0857E 065 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 180 SE QD
130 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 158S 0826E 075 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 200 SE QD
160 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 178S 0796E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 210 SE QD
160 SW QD 105 NW QD
T036 199S 0767E 090 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 220 SE QD
165 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 225S 0738E 085 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 115 SE QD 080 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 235 SE QD
175 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 292S 0699E 055 R050 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
210 NE QD 220 SE QD 135 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 393S 0735E 040 R034 245 NE QD 200 SE QD 070 SW QD 190 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 85.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 070900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180107075934
2018010706 04S IRVING 006 02 235 16 SATL 060
T000 143S 0857E 065 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 180 SE QD 130 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 158S 0826E 075 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 178S 0796E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 105 NW QD
T036 199S 0767E 090 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 220 SE QD 165 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 225S 0738E 085 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 115 SE QD 080 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 235 SE QD 175 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 292S 0699E 055 R050 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 135 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 393S 0735E 040 R034 245 NE QD 200 SE QD 070 SW QD 190 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 85.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 85.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.8S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.8S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.9S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.5S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 29.2S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 39.3S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 84.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 890 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0418010406 98S 947E 20
0418010412 101S 946E 20
0418010418 104S 944E 20
0418010500 107S 940E 20
0418010506 112S 938E 25
0418010512 119S 933E 25
0418010518 123S 925E 30
0418010600 125S 916E 35
0418010606 126S 904E 35
0418010612 128S 893E 40
0418010618 129S 882E 45
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010700 134S 870E 55
0418010706 143S 857E 65
0418010706 143S 857E 65
0418010706 143S 857E 65


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 070900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 85.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 85.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.8S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 85.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 85.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.8S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.8S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.9S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.5S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 29.2S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 39.3S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 84.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 890 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A DEVELOPING EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 070550Z HIMAWARI ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH REVEALS THE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0
FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND DEVELOPING OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 04S IS
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. TC 04S SHOULD INTENSIFY RAPIDLY UNDER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 36
BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. AFTER TAU 72, TC 04S WILL RE-CURVE AND
ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES,
BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 72. TC IRVING IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96, THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z,
080300Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 070815

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/2/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 07/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.9 S / 85.7 E
(TREIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 330 SO: 330 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 07/01/2018 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 08/01/2018 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 08/01/2018 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 09/01/2018 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 09/01/2018 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 10/01/2018 06 UTC: 29.4 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/01/2018 06 UTC: 39.1 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.5+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX ONT EU
TENDANCE A SE RECHAUFFER TANDIS QU'UN LARGE OEIL EST APPARU SUR LES
IMAGES INFRAROUGES. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES CONFIRMENT UNE
CONSOLIDATION DU COEUR DE LA CIRCULATION. LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK
OSCILLENT ENTRE 3.5 ET 4.0 MAIS LES DERNIERES PASSES ASCAT NE
DEPASSENT PAS LES 45KT. LA STRUCTURE ASSEZ LARGE D'IRVING EST SANS
DOUTE RESPONSABLE DE CETTE DIFFERENCE. LE SYSTEME EST DONC RECLASSE
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC UNE INTENSITE DE 50KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION SUR LE SYSTEME IRVING,
L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES SONT BIEN EN ACCORD SUR SON EVOLUTION,
DEFINISSANT ALORS UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION. LA
TRAJECTOIRE D'IRVING RESTE GOUVERNEE PAR LA PUISSANTE DORSALE AU
SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, IRVING DEVRAIT ETRE ATTIRE
PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT GARDER DES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES JUSQU'A DEMAIN
SOIR AVEC UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. LE STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL EST DONC ATTENDU EN DEBUT DE JOURNEE PROCHAINE. ENSUITE, LE
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT AUGMENTER A L'AVANT DE LA DYNAMIQUE D'ALTITUDE.
MALGRE SA VITESSE IMPORTANTE, LES EFFETS NEFASTES DE CETTE CONTRAINTE
SONT PREVUS LIMITER DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS SON POTENTIEL
D'INTENSIFICATION PUIS FINIR PAR AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME MARDI. JEUDI LE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT EGALEMENT FORTEMENT DIMINUE AU SUD DE
27S. IRVING COMMENCERAIT ALORS SA TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 070815

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/2/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 85.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 330 SW: 330 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/07 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 82.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/08 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/08 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 76.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/09 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 73.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/09 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 70.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/01/10 06 UTC: 29.4 S / 69.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/11 06 UTC: 39.1 S / 73.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

DURING THE LAST HOURS, CLOUDS TOPS GOT WARMER WHILE A BROAD EYE
APPEARED ON INFRARED IMAGERY. MICROWAVE DATA CONFIRMED THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE INNER CORE. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 3.5 AND
4.0 BUT LAST ASCAT SWATHS DO NOT EXCEED 45KT. ITS LARGE STRUCTURE MAY
EXPLAIN THAT DIFFERENCE. IRVING IS SO UPGRADED TO SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM STATUS WITH 50KT FOR MAXIMUM WINDS .

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST ON THE IRVING SYSTEM, ALL NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE WELL IN AGREEMENT ON ITS EVOLUTION, DEFINING THEN A GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. IRVING'S TRACK IS STEERED BY A STRONG
RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST. FROM WEDNESDAY, IRVING SHOULD BE ATTRACTED
TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES BY A TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST.

THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO KEEP CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UP TO
TOMORROW EVENING WITH A VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. IT SHOULD REACH
TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS IN THE NEXT MORNING. THEN, AHEAD OF THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS DESPITE ITS SIGNIFICANT SPEED, SHEAR NEGATIVE
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT ITS DEEPENING POTENTIAL AND THEN WEAKEN
IRVING FROM TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL AS WELL WILL
DECAY SOUTH OF 27S. IRVING SHOULD THEN BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 070618
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 07/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (IRVING) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 85.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/07 AT 18 UTC:
15.5 S / 82.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/08 AT 06 UTC:
17.6 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 070300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180107011009
2018010700 04S IRVING 005 02 235 11 SATL 030
T000 135S 0873E 055 R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 146S 0845E 065 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 190 SE QD
155 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 164S 0816E 085 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 200 SE QD
165 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 186S 0787E 090 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 200 SE QD
165 SW QD 095 NW QD
T048 212S 0758E 085 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 115 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 215 SE QD
175 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 288S 0701E 055 R050 065 NE QD 095 SE QD 060 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
205 NE QD 230 SE QD 165 SW QD 085 NW QD
T096 376S 0745E 040 R034 250 NE QD 220 SE QD 050 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 13.5S 87.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 070300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180107011009
2018010700 04S IRVING 005 02 235 11 SATL 030
T000 135S 0873E 055 R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 146S 0845E 065 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 190 SE QD 155 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 164S 0816E 085 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 200 SE QD 165 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 186S 0787E 090 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 200 SE QD 165 SW QD 095 NW QD
T048 212S 0758E 085 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 115 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 215 SE QD 175 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 288S 0701E 055 R050 065 NE QD 095 SE QD 060 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 230 SE QD 165 SW QD 085 NW QD
T096 376S 0745E 040 R034 250 NE QD 220 SE QD 050 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 13.5S 87.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 87.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.6S 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.4S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.6S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 21.2S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 28.8S 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 37.6S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 86.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 954 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0418010406 98S 947E 20
0418010412 101S 946E 20
0418010418 104S 944E 20
0418010500 107S 940E 20
0418010506 112S 938E 25
0418010512 119S 933E 25
0418010518 123S 925E 30
0418010600 125S 916E 35
0418010606 126S 904E 35
0418010612 128S 893E 40
0418010618 129S 882E 45
0418010700 135S 873E 55
0418010700 135S 873E 55


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 070300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 13.5S 87.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 87.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.6S 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 13.5S 87.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 87.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.6S 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.4S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.6S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 21.2S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 28.8S 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 37.6S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 86.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 954 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A WEAK,
DEVELOPING EYE. A 070021Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY,
THE 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS A CYAN RING, WHICH TYPICALLY
SIGNALS AN IMMINENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM PGTW AND FMEE. TC 04S IS TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. TC 04S SHOULD INTENSIFY RAPIDLY UNDER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 36.
AFTER TAU 48, TC 04S WILL RE-CURVE AND ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 72. TC IRVING IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT
BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 070031

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/2/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 07/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.5 S / 87.0 E
(TREIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 07/01/2018 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 08/01/2018 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 08/01/2018 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 09/01/2018 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 09/01/2018 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 10/01/2018 00 UTC: 28.3 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/01/2018 00 UTC: 36.6 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
120H: 12/01/2018 00 UTC: 45.1 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.5-

APRES DES POUSSEES DE CONVECTION IMPORTANTE EN COURS DE NUIT, LA
CONVECTION MARQUE UNE LEGERE FAIBLESSE AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES.
LES DERNIERES IMAGES INFRAROUGES LAISSENT APPARAITRE UNE ESQUISSE
D'OEIL PEU APRES 00UTC.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION SUR LE SYSTEME IRVING,
L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES SONT BIEN EN ACCORD SUR SON EVOLUTION,
DEFINISSANT ALORS UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION. LA
TRAJECTOIRE D'IRVING RESTE GOUVERNEE PAR LA PUISSANTE DORSALE AU
SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, IRVING DEVRAIT ETRE ATTIRE
PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES DONT LA
CHRONOLOGIE EST ELLE AUSSI BIEN APPREHENDEE.

LA DYNAMIQUE D'ALTITUDE EST PROPICE A UN ENVIRONNEMENT CISAILLE A
PROXIMITE DU SYSTEME. CEPENDANT LA VITESSE IMPORTANTE DE DEPLACEMENT
D'IRVING DEVRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE COMPENSER EN PARTIE LES EFFETS
NEFASTES DE CETTE CONTRAINTE ET DE S'INTENSIFIER JUSQU'EN LIMITE DE
STADE DE CYCLONE, LIMITE PAR LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE A CES LATITUDES
ET A L'INFLUENCE DU THALWEG DEVENANT PLUS FORTE. IRVING DEVRAIT
COMMENCER ALORS A S'AFFAIBLIR EN ENTAMANT SA TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICALE.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 070031

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/2/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/07 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 87.0 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/07 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 84.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/08 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/08 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/09 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 75.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/01/09 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 72.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/01/10 00 UTC: 28.3 S / 69.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/11 00 UTC: 36.6 S / 71.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/01/12 00 UTC: 45.1 S / 82.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

AFTER STRONG CONVECTION BURSTS DURING THE NIGHT, THE CONVECTION IS
LIGHTLY WEAKENING DURING THE LAST HOURS. AN EYE BEGINS TO APPEAR ON
THE LATEST INFRARED DATA AFTER 00UTC.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST ON THE IRVING SYSTEM, ALL NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE WELL IN AGREEMENT ON ITS EVOLUTION, DEFINING THEN A GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. IRVING'S TRACK IS STEERED BY A STRONG
RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST. FROM WEDNESDAY, IRVING SHOULD BE ATTRACTED
TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES BY A TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST
WHOSE FORECAST IS ALSO WELL APPREHENDED.

THE UPPER ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS IS SUITABLE FOR A SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
NEAR THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE SIGNIFICANT SPEED OF DISPLACEMENT OF
IRVING SHOULD ALLOW IT TO COMPENSATE THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE
SHEAR AND TO INTENSIFY UNTIL THE MAXIMUM STAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM, RESTRICTED BY THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL TO THESE LATITUDES AND THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH STRONGER. IRVING SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN WHILE BEGINNING AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 070016
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/01/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 07/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (IRVING) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 87.0 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/07 AT 12 UTC:
15.4 S / 84.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/08 AT 00 UTC:
17.2 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 062100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180106191750
2018010618 04S IRVING 004 02 255 11 SATL 060
T000 131S 0882E 045 R034 070 NE QD 135 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 139S 0854E 050 R050 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 005 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 185 SE QD 155 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 154S 0826E 055 R050 035 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
125 NE QD 190 SE QD 165 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 175S 0797E 065 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 190 SE QD
165 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 199S 0768E 070 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 200 SE QD
175 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 256S 0708E 060 R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 235 SE QD 180 SW QD 085 NW QD
T096 350S 0709E 045 R034 175 NE QD 180 SE QD 070 SW QD 095 NW QD
T120 445S 0813E 035 R034 265 NE QD 245 SE QD 065 SW QD 260 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 88.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 062100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180106191750
2018010618 04S IRVING 004 02 255 11 SATL 060
T000 131S 0882E 045 R034 070 NE QD 135 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 139S 0854E 050 R050 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 185 SE QD 155 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 154S 0826E 055 R050 035 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 190 SE QD 165 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 175S 0797E 065 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 190 SE QD 165 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 199S 0768E 070 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 200 SE QD 175 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 256S 0708E 060 R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 235 SE QD 180 SW QD 085 NW QD
T096 350S 0709E 045 R034 175 NE QD 180 SE QD 070 SW QD 095 NW QD
T120 445S 0813E 035 R034 265 NE QD 245 SE QD 065 SW QD 260 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 88.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 88.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 13.9S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.4S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.5S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.9S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 25.6S 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 35.0S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 44.5S 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 87.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 994 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
0418010406 98S 947E 20
0418010412 101S 946E 20
0418010418 104S 944E 20
0418010500 107S 940E 20
0418010506 112S 938E 25
0418010512 119S 933E 25
0418010518 123S 925E 30
0418010600 125S 916E 35
0418010606 126S 904E 35
0418010612 128S 893E 40
0418010618 131S 882E 45


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 062100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 88.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 88.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 13.9S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.4S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 88.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 88.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 13.9S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.4S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.5S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.9S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 25.6S 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 35.0S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 44.5S 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 87.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 994 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 061941Z GMI
37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY, THIS IMAGE SHOWS A CYAN RING,
WHICH TYPICALLY CAN SIGNAL AN IMMINENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE.
A 061602Z ASCAT BULLS-EYE SHOWED 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, HOWEVER, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM ALL
AGENCIES. TC 04S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR. TC 04S
SHOULD INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A PEAK
OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 04S WILL RE-CURVE AND
ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES,
BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 60. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120, THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z,
071500Z AND 072100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 061851

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/2/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 06/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.1 S / 88.5 E
(TREIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 07/01/2018 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 07/01/2018 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 08/01/2018 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 08/01/2018 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 09/01/2018 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 09/01/2018 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/01/2018 18 UTC: 35.0 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
120H: 11/01/2018 18 UTC: 44.8 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.0+

COMME ANNONCE LORS DU PRECEDENT CMRS, AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6
HEURES, LES POUSSES DE CONVECTION DE IRVING SONT FORTES ET RESTENT
BIEN AXEES AU DESSUS DU CENTRE DE CIRCULATION.

LA TRAJECTOIRE D'IRVING EST PILOTEE PAR LA PUISSANTE DORSALE AU
SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. CETTE SITUATION EST VUE PAR L'ENSEMBLE DES MODA
LES, DEFINISSANT ALORS UNE BONNE CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION. A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI, IRVING DEVRAIT ETRE ATTIRE PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN
THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES DONT LA CHRONOLOGIE EST AUSSI BIEN
APPREHENDEE.

LA DYNAMIQUE D'ALTITUDE EST PROPICE A UN ENVIRONNEMENT CISAILLE A
PROXIMITE DU SYSTEME. CEPENDANT LA VITESSE IMPORTANTE DE DEPLACEMENT
D'IRVING DEVRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE COMPENSER EN PARTIE LES EFFETS
NEFASTES DE CETTE CONTRAINTE ET DE S'INTENSIFIER JUSQU'EN LIMITE DE
STADE DE CYCLONE, LIMITE PAR LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE A CES LATITUDES
ET A L'INFLUENCE DU THALWEG DEVENANT PLUS FORTE. IRVING DEVRAIT
COMMENCER ALORS A S'AFFAIBLIR EN ENTAMANT SA TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICALE.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 061851

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/2/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1 S / 88.5 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/07 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 85.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/07 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/08 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 79.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/08 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 76.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/01/09 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 73.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/01/09 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 70.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/10 18 UTC: 35.0 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/01/11 18 UTC: 44.8 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

AS ANNOUNCED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS DURING THE PREVIOUS RMSC
WARNING, THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE STRONG AND REMAIN WELL AXED OVER
THE CIRCULATION CENTER.

IRVING'S TRACK IS STEERED BY A STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST. ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SITUATION, DEFINING THEN
A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. FROM WEDNESDAY, IRVING SHOULD BE
ATTRACTED TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES BY A TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST WHOSE FORECAST IS ALSO WELL APPREHENDED.

THE UPPER ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS IS SUITABLE FOR A SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
NEAR THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE SIGNIFICANT SPEED OF DISPLACEMENT OF
IRVING SHOULD ALLOW IT TO COMPENSATE THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE
SHEAR AND TO INTENSIFY UNTIL THE MAXIMUM STAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM, RESTRICTED BY THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL TO THESE LATITUDES AND THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH STRONGER. IRVING SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN WHILE BEGINNING AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 061810
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 06/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (IRVING) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1 S / 88.5 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/07 AT 06 UTC:
14.5 S / 85.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/07 AT 18 UTC:
16.5 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 061500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180106134439
2018010612 04S IRVING 003 02 245 13 SATL 060
T000 131S 0892E 040 R034 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 115 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 137S 0864E 050 R050 015 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 185 SE QD 165 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 149S 0836E 060 R050 035 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
135 NE QD 205 SE QD 170 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 167S 0808E 065 R064 005 NE QD 030 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 095 SE QD 070 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 205 SE QD
170 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 190S 0778E 070 R064 010 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 215 SE QD
175 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 243S 0720E 065 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 100 SE QD 065 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 235 NE QD 250 SE QD
200 SW QD 085 NW QD
T096 314S 0686E 055 R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
235 NE QD 195 SE QD 145 SW QD 135 NW QD
T120 416S 0761E 040 R034 225 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 210 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 89.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 061500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180106134439
2018010612 04S IRVING 003 02 245 13 SATL 060
T000 131S 0892E 040 R034 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 115 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 137S 0864E 050 R050 015 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 185 SE QD 165 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 149S 0836E 060 R050 035 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 205 SE QD 170 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 167S 0808E 065 R064 005 NE QD 030 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 095 SE QD 070 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 205 SE QD 170 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 190S 0778E 070 R064 010 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 215 SE QD 175 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 243S 0720E 065 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 100 SE QD 065 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 235 NE QD 250 SE QD 200 SW QD 085 NW QD
T096 314S 0686E 055 R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 235 NE QD 195 SE QD 145 SW QD 135 NW QD
T120 416S 0761E 040 R034 225 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 210 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 89.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 89.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 13.7S 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.9S 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.7S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 19.0S 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 24.3S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 31.4S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 41.6S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 88.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1050 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0418010406 98S 947E 20
0418010412 101S 946E 20
0418010418 104S 944E 20
0418010500 107S 940E 20
0418010506 112S 938E 25
0418010512 119S 933E 25
0418010518 123S 925E 30
0418010600 125S 916E 35
0418010606 126S 904E 35
0418010612 131S 892E 40


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 061500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 89.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 89.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 13.7S 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.9S 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 89.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 89.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 13.7S 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.9S 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.7S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 19.0S 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 24.3S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 31.4S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 41.6S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 88.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1050 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION WHICH NOW SURROUNDS THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 04S. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 061130Z METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE
SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS WHICH IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON IMPROVING
STORM STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. BOTH POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (27 TO 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS). TC 04S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. AFTER
TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. TC 04S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY
TAU 48. AFTER TAU 72, TC 04S WILL BEGIN TO RE-CURVE AND ACCELERATE
AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, BEGINNING
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND
071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 061311

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/2/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 06/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.8 S / 89.8 E
(DOUZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 90 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 60



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 07/01/2018 00 UTC: 13.9 S / 86.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 07/01/2018 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 08/01/2018 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 08/01/2018 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 09/01/2018 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 09/01/2018 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/01/2018 12 UTC: 32.9 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 11/01/2018 12 UTC: 45.3 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=2.5+

L'INFLUENCE DE LA CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR EST EN ALTITUDE RESTE FORTE
SUR LA CONVECTION D'IRVING, PRINCIPALEMENT LOCALISEE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE OUEST. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE LA PASSE SSMIS DE 1215Z
MONTRENT CEPENDANT QUE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE RESTE SOLIDE ET A MEME
TENDANCE A SE CONSOLIDER. LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES CONFIRMENT
CETTE IMPRESSION AVEC DES POUSSES DE CONVECTION QUI RESTENT BIEN
AXEES AU DESSUS DU CENTRE DE CIRCULATION.

LA TRAJECTOIRE D'IRVING EST PILOTEE PAR LA PUISSANTE DORSALE AU
SUD-EST DU SYSTEME, PUIS IL DEVRAIT ETRE ATTIRE PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN
THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES A PARTIR DE MERCREDI. LE MOUVEMENT
D'IRVING DEVRAIT ETRE RAPIDE ET LA DISPERSION DES MODELES DISPONIBLES
EST TRES FAIBLE LE LONG DE CETTE CLASSIQUE TRAJECTOIRE PARABOLIQUE.

LE CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE QUI AFFECTE IRVING DEVRAIT PRENDRE UNE
DIRECTION NORD-EST PUIS NORD EN COURS DE PERIODE, SANS FAIBLIR
CEPENDANT. CETTE CONTRAINTE EST PILOTEE PAR UN PROFOND THALWEG
D'ALTITUDE AXE LE LONG DU 65EME MERIDIEN. LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT
D'IRVING DEVRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE COMPENSER EN PARTIE LES EFFETS
NEFASTES DE CETTE CONTRAINTE ET DE S'INTENSIFIER LENTEMENT JUSQU'A
ARRIVER AU SUD DE 25S. LA, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE COMMENCE A MANQUER
ET L'INFLUENCE DU THALWEG DEVIENT PLUS FORTE. IRVING DEVRAIT
COMMENCER ALORS A S'AFFAIBLIR EN ENTAMANT SA TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICALE=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 061311

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/2/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (IRVING)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 89.8 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 90 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/07 00 UTC: 13.9 S / 86.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/07 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/08 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/08 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/01/09 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 75.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/01/09 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/10 12 UTC: 32.9 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/01/11 12 UTC: 45.3 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

THE UPPER EASTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT IS CLEARLY AFFECTING IRVING'S
CONVECTION AND CONCENTRATING IT MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEVERTHELESS, 1215Z SSMIS MICRO-WAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE INTERNAL
STRUCTURE OF THE STORM REMAINS WELL DEFINED AND EVEN TENDS TO
CONSOLIDATE. THE LAST SAT IMAGES CONFIRM THIS IMPRESSION AS STRONG
CONVECTIVE BURSTS REMAIN WELL AXED OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER.

IRVING'S TRACK IS STEERED BY A STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST. FROM
WEDNESDAY, THE STORM SHOULD BE ATTRACTED TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES BY
A TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. IRVING SPEED SHOULD BE RATHER
HIGH AND THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DISPERSION REMAINS VERY LOW ALONG
THIS CLASSIC PARABOLIC TRACK.

THE UPPER SHEAR AFFECTING IRVING SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTERLY THEN
NORTHERLY OVER THE PERIOD BUT WITHOUT WEAKENING. THIS UPPER
CONSTRAINT IS DRIVEN BY A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXED ALONG THE 65TH
MERIDIAN. THE QUICK SOUTH-WESTWARD MOTION OF IRVING SHOULD PARTLY
COMPENSATE THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE SHEAR. IRVING IS THUS LIKELY
TO SLOWLY DEEPEN UNTIL REACHING 25S. SOUTH OF THIS LIMIT, THE OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT BECOMES LIMITED AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
STRONGER. IRVING SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN WHILE BEGINNING AN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 061225
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 06/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (IRVING) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 89.8 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 175 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SECTOR.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/07 AT 00 UTC:
13.9 S / 86.6 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/07 AT 12 UTC:
15.3 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 060900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180106084535
2018010606 04S IRVING 002 02 265 12 SATL 060
T000 126S 0904E 035 R034 110 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 132S 0879E 045 R034 115 NE QD 135 SE QD 120 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 142S 0851E 050 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 156S 0821E 060 R050 010 NE QD 045 SE QD 055 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 215 SE QD 165 SW QD 075 NW QD
T048 176S 0793E 065 R064 005 NE QD 040 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 225 SE QD
175 SW QD 085 NW QD
T072 229S 0731E 065 R064 025 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 230 SE QD
190 SW QD 085 NW QD
T096 292S 0691E 055 R050 075 NE QD 095 SE QD 030 SW QD 005 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 220 SE QD 150 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 401S 0731E 040 R034 180 NE QD 250 SE QD 130 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 12.6S 90.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 060900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180106084535
2018010606 04S IRVING 002 02 265 12 SATL 060
T000 126S 0904E 035 R034 110 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 132S 0879E 045 R034 115 NE QD 135 SE QD 120 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 142S 0851E 050 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 156S 0821E 060 R050 010 NE QD 045 SE QD 055 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 215 SE QD 165 SW QD 075 NW QD
T048 176S 0793E 065 R064 005 NE QD 040 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 225 SE QD 175 SW QD 085 NW QD
T072 229S 0731E 065 R064 025 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 230 SE QD 190 SW QD 085 NW QD
T096 292S 0691E 055 R050 075 NE QD 095 SE QD 030 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 220 SE QD 150 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 401S 0731E 040 R034 180 NE QD 250 SE QD 130 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 12.6S 90.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 90.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 13.2S 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 14.2S 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.6S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.6S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.9S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 29.2S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 40.1S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 89.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1108 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0418010406 98S 947E 20
0418010412 101S 946E 20
0418010418 104S 944E 20
0418010500 107S 940E 20
0418010506 112S 938E 25
0418010512 119S 933E 25
0418010518 123S 925E 30
0418010600 125S 916E 35
0418010606 126S 904E 35


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 060900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 12.6S 90.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 90.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 13.2S 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 14.2S 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 12.6S 90.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 90.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 13.2S 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 14.2S 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.6S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.6S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.9S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 29.2S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 40.1S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 89.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1108 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION, MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 04S. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 060550Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE
SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION WEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. BOTH POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (27 TO 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS). TC 04S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 12,
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. TC 04S WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
AFTER TAU 72, TC 04S WILL BEGIN TO RE-CURVE AND ACCELERATE AS IT
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, BEGINNING
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z,
070300Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 060300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180106020241
2018010600 04S IRVING 001 02 255 09 SATL 050
T000 125S 0916E 035 R034 105 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 131S 0893E 040 R034 065 NE QD 135 SE QD 135 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 138S 0867E 045 R034 065 NE QD 195 SE QD 160 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 149S 0839E 055 R050 020 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
115 NE QD 205 SE QD 160 SW QD 065 NW QD
T048 166S 0811E 065 R064 030 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 075 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 220 SE QD
170 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 214S 0747E 070 R064 035 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 115 SE QD 080 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 230 SE QD
190 SW QD 085 NW QD
T096 285S 0685E 055 R050 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 065 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
220 NE QD 235 SE QD 165 SW QD 075 NW QD
T120 381S 0724E 045 R034 195 NE QD 195 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 12.5S 91.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS52 PGTW 060300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04S SIO 180106020241
2018010600 04S IRVING 001 02 255 09 SATL 050
T000 125S 0916E 035 R034 105 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 131S 0893E 040 R034 065 NE QD 135 SE QD 135 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 138S 0867E 045 R034 065 NE QD 195 SE QD 160 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 149S 0839E 055 R050 020 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 205 SE QD 160 SW QD 065 NW QD
T048 166S 0811E 065 R064 030 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 075 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 220 SE QD 170 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 214S 0747E 070 R064 035 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 115 SE QD 080 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 230 SE QD 190 SW QD 085 NW QD
T096 285S 0685E 055 R050 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 065 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 235 SE QD 165 SW QD 075 NW QD
T120 381S 0724E 045 R034 195 NE QD 195 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 12.5S 91.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 91.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 13.1S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 13.8S 86.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.9S 83.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.6S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 21.4S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 28.5S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 38.1S 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 91.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1173 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0418010406 98S 947E 20
0418010412 101S 946E 20
0418010418 104S 944E 20
0418010500 107S 940E 20
0418010506 112S 938E 25
0418010512 119S 933E 25
0418010518 123S 925E 30
0418010600 125S 916E 35


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 060300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 12.5S 91.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 91.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 13.1S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 13.8S 86.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 12.5S 91.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 91.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 13.1S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 13.8S 86.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.9S 83.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.6S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 21.4S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 28.5S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 38.1S 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 91.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (IRVING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1173 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 052340Z CORIOLIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING,
PRIMARILY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND SHALLOW BANDING
OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER.
THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
RECENT TRACK MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM PGTW AND APRF. TC
04S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR. TC SHOULD
STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A
PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, TC 04S WILL RE-CURVE AND
ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES,
BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120, THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z,
062100Z AND 070300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//