Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DEBBY-18
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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2018-08-09 21:31

WTNT44 KNHC 092036

TCDAT4



Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Discussion Number  10

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018

500 PM AST Thu Aug 09 2018



Debby has become post-tropical. The circulation of the cyclone has

become ill defined, and it is no longer producing enough organized

deep convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone.  Therefore,

Debby has become post-tropical, and this is the last advisory. The

cyclone is accelerating northeastward ahead of a shortwave trough,

and this should continue for the next few hours until Debby opens up

into a trough of low pressure and merges with a larger frontal

boundary later tonight.



Debby is likely still producing gale-force winds to the southeast

of its center, however all of the guidance indicates that these

winds will gradually decrease through early tomorrow.  Additional

information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts

issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header

NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web

at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  09/2100Z 45.5N  40.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

 12H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Zelinsky



2018-08-09 21:31

WTNT34 KNHC 092036

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Advisory Number  10

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018

500 PM AST Thu Aug 09 2018



...DEBBY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...

...LIKELY TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...





SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...45.5N 40.5W

ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM NW OF THE AZORES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby

was located near latitude 45.5 North, longitude 40.5 West. The

post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37

km/h).  This general motion is expected to continue for the next

few hours until the cyclone dissipates later tonight.



Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

Little change in strength is forecast until Debby dissipates later

tonight.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

None.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane

Center on Debby.  Additional information can be found in High Seas

Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header

NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at

https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.



$$

Forecaster Zelinsky



2018-08-09 21:31

WTNT24 KNHC 092043 CCA

TCMAT4



POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10...CORRECTED

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042018

2100 UTC THU AUG 09 2018



CORRECTED TO REMOVE 12-HOUR FORECAST POSITION



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N  40.5W AT 09/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  20 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.

34 KT.......  0NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N  40.5W AT 09/2100Z

AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.1N  42.0W



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.5N  40.5W



THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE

FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.





$$

FORECASTER ZELINSKY



2018-08-09 21:31

WTNT24 KNHC 092036

TCMAT4



POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042018

2100 UTC THU AUG 09 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N  40.5W AT 09/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  20 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.

34 KT.......  0NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N  40.5W AT 09/2100Z

AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.1N  42.0W



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 47.5N  35.6W...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.5N  40.5W



THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE

FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.





$$

FORECASTER ZELINSKY



2018-08-09 15:31

WTNT44 KNHC 091434

TCDAT4



Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018

1100 AM AST Thu Aug 09 2018



Debby continues to produce a small area of deep convection just

south of its exposed low-level center. Overnight and early this

morning, the cyclone passed over a warm eddy within the Gulf Stream,

and this may have provided enough energy to allow the cyclone to

maintain its convection and intensity. A recent ASCAT overpass

around 1230 UTC showed that the maximum winds of Debby are still

near 40 kt, but the cyclone has nearly opened up into a trough of

low pressure. Furthermore, the wind field has broadened, typically

an indication that a system is losing its tropical characteristics.



No significant changes have been made to the track or intensity

forecasts. The tropical storm continues to move quickly

northeastward, with an initial motion of 055/15 kt. The cyclone, or

its remnants, should accelerate northeastward today ahead of a

fast-moving shortwave trough until dissipation occurs. Debby is now

crossing over the northern wall of the Gulf Stream, so weakening is

expected to resume later today. The forecast conservatively shows

Debby as a post-tropical cyclone at 12 hours, but it is very

possible that Debby will dissipate later today as its forward speed

increases.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  09/1500Z 44.5N  43.1W   40 KT  45 MPH

 12H  10/0000Z 46.2N  39.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 24H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Zelinsky



2018-08-09 15:31

WTNT34 KNHC 091433

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number   9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018

1100 AM AST Thu Aug 09 2018



...DEBBY EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON...





SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...44.5N 43.1W

ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM WNW OF THE AZORES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was

located near latitude 44.5 North, longitude 43.1 West.  Debby is

moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and it is

expected to accelerate northeastward through the day today.



Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.

Some weakening is forecast, and Debby will likely dissipate later

today or tonight.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

None.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.



$$

Forecaster Zelinsky



2018-08-09 15:31

WTNT24 KNHC 091432

TCMAT4



TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042018

1500 UTC THU AUG 09 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.5N  43.1W AT 09/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  15 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.

34 KT.......  0NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.5N  43.1W AT 09/1500Z

AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.0N  44.4W



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 46.2N  39.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT...  0NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.5N  43.1W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z



$$

FORECASTER ZELINSKY



2018-08-09 09:31

WTNT44 KNHC 090837

TCDAT4



Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   8

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018

500 AM AST Thu Aug 09 2018



Debby is still hanging on to tropical storm status with a new burst

of deep convection having recently developed just south of the

low-level center. However, the cyclone's overall cloud pattern has

deteriorated significantly since the previous advisory, and there

are no longer any convective bands in the region where earlier

40-plus-kt ASCAT winds were observed. As a result, the initial

intensity has been lowered slightly to 40 kt, which is consistent

with an average of consensus current T-number and current intensity

estimates of T2.5 and T3.0, respectively, from both TAFB and SAB.



Debby has begun to accelerate northeastward, and the motion

estimate is now 055/15 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected

as Debby gets caught up in the high-latitude westerlies ahead of a

fast-moving shortwave trough. The small cyclone is forecast to open

up into a surface trough by 24 h or so due to Debby moving faster

than 20 kt and steady weakening of the circulation over the cold

waters of the far north Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is

similar to the previous advisory and basically lies down the middle

of the tightly packed guidance envelope.



Although Debby has been and is forecast to continue straddling a

tight SST gradient with 26+ deg C water just to the southeast and

south of the center, the ingestion of drier and more stable air

from the north is expected to induce gradual weakening until

dissipation or absorption occurs in about 24 h. Debby could briefly

become extratropical in about 18 h, followed by dissipation shortly

thereafter.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  09/0900Z 43.6N  45.1W   40 KT  45 MPH

 12H  09/1800Z 45.4N  41.4W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-08-09 09:31

WTNT34 KNHC 090836

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number   8

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018

500 AM AST Thu Aug 09 2018



...DEBBY BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE COLD WATERS

OF THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC...





SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...43.6N 45.1W

ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM WNW OF THE AZORES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was

located near latitude 43.6 North, longitude 45.1 West. Debby is

moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion

with a further increase in forward speed is expected until the storm

dissipates in another day or so.



Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.

Gradual weakening is forecast, and Debby could become an

extratropical cyclone this afternoon or evening before dissipating

on Friday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

None.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-08-09 09:31

WTNT24 KNHC 090836

TCMAT4



TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042018

0900 UTC THU AUG 09 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.6N  45.1W AT 09/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  15 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.

34 KT....... 30NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.6N  45.1W AT 09/0900Z

AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.2N  46.0W



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 45.4N  41.4W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.6N  45.1W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z



$$

FORECASTER STEWART



2018-08-09 03:31

WTNT44 KNHC 090241

TCDAT4



Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   7

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018

1100 PM AST Wed Aug 08 2018



A very recent ASCAT pass indicates that Debby is stronger than

previously estimated.  The pass showed maximum winds of about 40 kt,

and since the entire circulation was not captured, the initial

intensity is set at 45 kt.  This estimate is also in agreement with

a Dvorak CI-number from TAFB.  Although the relatively compact

tropical storm is maintaining an area of moderate convection, the

thunderstorm activity is displaced to the south-southwest of the

center due to about 15 kt of wind shear.  Debby is currently over

fairly cool 25 deg C SSTs, but it will be headed for much cooler

water during the next 24 to 36 hours.  These unfavorable oceanic

conditions combined with an increasingly stable airmass should cause

weakening and extratropical transition.  The NHC intensity forecast

shows Debby becoming extratropical by 24 hours and dissipating

shortly thereafter, following the GFS and ECMWF models.



The tropical storm is moving northeastward, or 040 degrees, at 13

kt.  A faster northeastward motion is expected until the cyclone

opens into a trough as Debby becomes more embedded in the

mid-latitude flow.  The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of

the guidance envelope.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  09/0300Z 42.8N  46.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  09/1200Z 44.4N  43.7W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  10/0000Z 46.8N  37.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 36H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Cangialosi



2018-08-09 03:31

WTNT34 KNHC 090239

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number   7

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018

1100 PM AST Wed Aug 08 2018



...DEBBY STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...





SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...42.8N 46.5W

ABOUT 1075 MI...1730 KM WNW OF THE AZORES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was

located near latitude 42.8 North, longitude 46.5 West. Debby is

moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion

with an increase in forward speed is expected until the storm

dissipates in couple of days.



Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with

higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Debby is expected

to become an extratropical cyclone on Thursday, and dissipate by

Friday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

None.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.



$$

Forecaster Cangialosi



2018-08-09 03:31

WTNT24 KNHC 090250 CCA

TCMAT4



TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7...CORRECTED

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042018

0300 UTC THU AUG 09 2018



CORRECTED FOR INITIAL WIND GUSTS



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.8N  46.5W AT 09/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT  11 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.

34 KT....... 30NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.8N  46.5W AT 09/0300Z

AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.4N  47.0W



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 44.4N  43.7W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 46.8N  37.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.8N  46.5W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z



$$

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



2018-08-09 03:31

WTNT24 KNHC 090239

TCMAT4



TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042018

0300 UTC THU AUG 09 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.8N  46.5W AT 09/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT  11 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.

34 KT....... 30NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.8N  46.5W AT 09/0300Z

AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.4N  47.0W



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 44.4N  43.7W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 46.8N  37.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.8N  46.5W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z



$$

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



2018-08-08 21:31

WTNT44 KNHC 082033

TCDAT4



Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   6

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018

500 PM AST Wed Aug 08 2018



Satellite images indicate that Debby's circulation is becoming

elongated and the low-level center is on the northeastern edge of an

area of moderate convection.  A blend of the satellite intensity

estimates, and data from an earlier ASCAT pass yields an intensity

of 35 kt at this time.  Debby is already moving over cooler waters,

so additional weakening is anticipated, and the circulation should

should open up into a trough on Thursday. In fact, this is the

solution of the GFS and the ECMWF models.



Satellite fixes indicate that Debby is moving toward the northeast

or 040 degrees at 13 knots.  The cyclone is well embedded within the

southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough, and this pattern

should continue to steer Debby northeastward with some increase in

forward speed.  The track models continue to be in pretty good

agreement.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  08/2100Z 42.0N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  09/0600Z 43.5N  45.4W   30 KT  35 MPH

 24H  09/1800Z 45.5N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 36H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-08-08 21:31

WTNT34 KNHC 082031

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number   6

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018

500 PM AST Wed Aug 08 2018



...DEBBY MOVING OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC...





SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...42.0N 47.2W

ABOUT 1100 MI...1770 KM WNW OF THE AZORES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was

located near latitude 42.0 North, longitude 47.2 West.  Debby is

moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion

is expected to continue today and tomorrow.



Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)

with higher gusts.  Debby is forecast to dissipate on Thursday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to

the southeast of the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

None.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-08-08 21:31

WTNT24 KNHC 082031

TCMAT4



TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042018

2100 UTC WED AUG 08 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.0N  47.2W AT 08/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT  13 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.

34 KT.......  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.0N  47.2W AT 08/2100Z

AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.5N  47.8W



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 43.5N  45.4W

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 45.5N  41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.0N  47.2W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z



$$

FORECASTER AVILA



2018-08-08 15:35

WTNT44 KNHC 081436

TCDAT4



Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   5

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018

1100 AM AST Wed Aug 08 2018



The cloud pattern of Debby this morning is definitely typical of a

tropical cyclone instead of a subtropical system with moderate

convection wrapping around the center, and a well defined

upper-level outflow in the eastern semicircle. A blend of the

satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and CIMMS SATCON still

support an initial intensity of 40 kt. A recent ASCAT pass suggest

that this estimate could be generous. Debby is already moving over

cooler waters, so a gradual weakening is anticipated before the

system becomes extratropical and then gets absorbed by a larger

trough. In fact, most of the reliable global models degenerate Debby

into a trough of low pressure on Thursday.



The initial motion is toward the northeast or 035 degrees at 10 kt.

The cyclone is embedded within a mid-latitude trough, and will

continue to move on this general northeastward track with some

increase in forward speed in tandem with the trough until

dissipation. The track models are in pretty good agreement on this

solution.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  08/1500Z 41.2N  48.3W   40 KT  45 MPH

 12H  09/0000Z 42.4N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  09/1200Z 44.2N  44.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  10/0000Z 46.5N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-08-08 15:35

WTNT34 KNHC 081434

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number   5

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018

1100 AM AST Wed Aug 08 2018



...DEBBY FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY OVER THE COLD WATERS OF

THE NORTH ATLANTIC...





SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...41.2N 48.3W

ABOUT 1150 MI...1855 KM WNW OF THE AZORES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was

located near latitude 41.2 North, longitude 48.3 West. Debby is

moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion

is expected to continue today and tomorrow.



Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.

Debby is forecast to dissipate on Thursday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)

to the north and east of the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

None.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-08-08 15:35

WTNT24 KNHC 081434

TCMAT4



TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042018

1500 UTC WED AUG 08 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.2N  48.3W AT 08/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  35 DEGREES AT  10 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.

34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS..150NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.2N  48.3W AT 08/1500Z

AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.8N  48.7W



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 42.4N  47.2W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 44.2N  44.0W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 46.5N  39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.2N  48.3W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z



$$

FORECASTER AVILA



2018-08-08 09:31

WTNT44 KNHC 080834

TCDAT4



Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   4

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018

500 AM AST Wed Aug 08 2018



Over the past several hours, deep convection with cloud tops of -55

to -60 deg C has developed in the southeastern semicircle, with

some of the convective tops covering the previously exposed

low-level circulation center. In addition, outer banding

features have dissipated, and an elongated upper-level anticyclone

has developed over the cyclone. These convective- and synoptic-scale

features indicate that Debby has made the transition from a

subtropical to a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity of 40 kt

is based on a blend of UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON intensity estimates

of 39 kt and 42 kt, respectively. Furthermore, the 34-kt wind radii

and radius of maximum winds (RMW) were decreased significantly on

this advisory based on ASCAT wind data.



The initial motion estimate is now 015/08 kt.  Debby has made the

forecast turn toward the north-northeast, and a further turn toward

the northeast is expected later today as the cyclone moves around

the northwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge and ahead of an

approaching mid-level trough. The latest model guidance remains in

good agreement on this developing track scenario, and the new NHC

forecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and lies close

to a blend of the track consensus models HCCA and FSSE.



Debby will be moving along a tight sea-surface temperature (SST)

gradient for the next 24-36 hours or so, with the northwestern half

the circulation being over sub-25C SSTs and the southeastern

semicircle being over warmer waters where convection could continue

to develop. Given the relatively low vertical wind shear regime

that the cyclone will be moving through, along with the possibility

of deep convection persisting near the center, the intensity

forecast calls for little change in strength today, followed by

only slight weakening tonight and early Thursday. By Thursday night

or early Friday, SSTs beneath the cyclone are expected to decrease

to near 20 deg C and the shear is forecast to increase to more than

20 kt, an unfavorable combination that should result in Debby

dissipating over the far north Atlantic by 48 hours.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  08/0900Z 40.8N  48.8W   40 KT  45 MPH

 12H  08/1800Z 41.8N  48.2W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  09/0600Z 43.2N  46.1W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  09/1800Z 44.5N  43.4W   30 KT  35 MPH

 48H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-08-08 09:31

WTNT34 KNHC 080833

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number   4

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018

500 AM AST Wed Aug 08 2018



...DEBBY STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MAKING THE TRANSITION TO A

TROPICAL STORM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC...





SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...40.8N 48.8W

ABOUT 1175 MI...1890 KM WNW OF THE AZORES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was

located near latitude 40.8 North, longitude 48.8 West. Debby is

moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this

general motion is forecast to continue this morning. A turn toward

the northeast is forecast by this afternoon, and that motion should

continue into Thursday.



Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)

with higher gusts. Little change is strength is forecast today,

with slow weakening expected to begin late tonight or on Thursday.

Debby is forecast to dissipate over the far northern Atlantic by

Thursday night.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

None.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-08-08 09:31

WTNT24 KNHC 080833

TCMAT4



TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042018

0900 UTC WED AUG 08 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.8N  48.8W AT 08/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT   8 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.

34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS..130NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.8N  48.8W AT 08/0900Z

AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.4N  49.0W



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 41.8N  48.2W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 43.2N  46.1W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 44.5N  43.4W

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.8N  48.8W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z



$$

FORECASTER STEWART



2018-08-08 07:31

WTNT44 KNHC 080231

TCDAT4



Subtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   3

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018

1100 PM AST Tue Aug 07 2018



A little bit of deep convection has developed near the center of

Debby, but the overall cloud pattern still resembles more of a

subtropical cyclone.  Most of the convection is in a ragged band

well to the northeast of the center.  The initial intensity is held

at 35 kt based on a subtropical ST2.5 classification from TAFB.

The global models are in good agreement that the system will open

up into a trough on the southern side of a large low pressure

system within 48 hours.



The initial motion estimate is a slightly slower 360/11 kt.  Debby

is likely to turn northeastward in the flow on the eastern side of

a mid-level trough.  The official forecast is somewhat faster than

the latest model consensus to maintain some continuity with the

previous NHC track.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  08/0300Z 40.3N  49.1W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  08/1200Z 41.2N  48.9W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  09/0000Z 42.5N  47.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  09/1200Z 43.9N  44.7W   30 KT  35 MPH

 48H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Pasch



2018-08-08 07:31

WTNT44 KNHC 072032

TCDAT4



Subtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   2

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018

500 PM AST Tue Aug 07 2018



Debby's cloud pattern consists of a cyclonically curved convective

band wrapping around a large but somewhat vigorous circulation. TAFB

provided a subtropical classification of ST2.5, while an earlier

ship located to the east of the center reported 35 kt. These data is

used to assign the current intensity of the subtropical cyclone.

Although transition to a tropical cyclone is still possible during

the next 24 hours, no significant strengthening is anticipated since

Debby will soon be moving over cool waters and become fully embedded

within a larger mid-latitude trough in a day or so.  Debby is

forecast to dissipate in about 48 hours or earlier.



The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north or 355

degrees at 13 kt.  The subtropical storm should continue on this

general track with a decrease in forward speed for the next 24

hours or so and then turn to the northeast ahead of the trough,

which will eventually absorb Debby.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  07/2100Z 39.7N  49.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  08/0600Z 41.0N  49.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  08/1800Z 42.3N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  09/0600Z 44.0N  46.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

 48H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-08-08 07:31

WTNT44 KNHC 071455

TCDAT4



Subtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018

1100 AM AST Tue Aug 07 2018



The non-tropical low that NHC has been tracking over the North

Atlantic for the past few days has developed subtropical

characteristics and has been upgraded to subtropical storm status.

The tropical-storm-force winds associated with Debby are well

removed from the center as indicated by a recent ASCAT pass and are

occurring within a cyclonically curved band of moderate convection.

Although transition to a tropical cyclone is possible, no

significant strengthening is anticipated since the cyclone will soon

be moving over cool water and become fully embedded within a larger

mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. Debby is expected to

dissipate in about 48 hours or earlier.



The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north or 355

degrees at 14 kt. The subtropical storm should continue on this

general track with a decrease in forward speed for the next 24

hours or so and then turn to the northeast ahead of the trough,

which will eventually absorb Debby.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  07/1500Z 38.9N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  08/0000Z 41.0N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  08/1200Z 42.7N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  09/0000Z 44.0N  47.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

 48H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-08-08 07:31

WTNT34 KNHC 080230

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Subtropical Storm Debby Advisory Number   3

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018

1100 PM AST Tue Aug 07 2018



...DEBBY CONTINUES NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...





SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...40.3N 49.1W

ABOUT 1190 MI...1915 KM WNW OF THE AZORES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Debby was

located near latitude 40.3 North, longitude 49.1 West.  The storm is

moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn toward the

northeast is expected by Wednesday night.



Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

Weakening is forecast over the next day or so, and Debby is forecast

to dissipate by Thursday.



Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the

center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

None





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.



$$

Forecaster Pasch



2018-08-08 07:31

WTNT34 KNHC 072031

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Subtropical Storm Debby Advisory Number   2

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018

500 PM AST Tue Aug 07 2018



...SUBTROPICAL STORM DEBBY MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE...

...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED...





SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...39.7N 49.2W

ABOUT 1195 MI...1925 KM WNW OF THE AZORES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Debby was

located near latitude 39.7 North, longitude 49.2 West.  The storm is

moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h), but some decrease

in forward speed is anticipated before the cyclone turns toward

the northeast on Wednesday.



Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Debby is forecast to dissipate in a couple of days or

earlier.



Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the

east of the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

None





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-08-08 07:31

WTNT34 KNHC 071454

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Subtropical Storm Debby Advisory Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018

1100 AM AST Tue Aug 07 2018



...SUBTROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORMS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC...

...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED...





SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...38.9N 48.5W

ABOUT 1160 MI...1870 KM W OF THE AZORES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Debby was

located near latitude 38.9 North, longitude 48.5 West. The storm is

moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general

motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next

24 hours. A gradual turn to the northeast is anticipated thereafter.



Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

Debby is forecast to dissipate in a couple of days.



Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) to the

northeast of the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

None





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-08-08 07:31

WTNT24 KNHC 080230

TCMAT4



SUBTROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042018

0300 UTC WED AUG 08 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.3N  49.1W AT 08/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  11 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.

34 KT.......120NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS..130NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.3N  49.1W AT 08/0300Z

AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.8N  49.1W



FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 41.2N  48.9W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT...120NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 42.5N  47.5W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT...100NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 43.9N  44.7W

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.3N  49.1W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z



$$

FORECASTER PASCH



2018-08-08 07:31

WTNT24 KNHC 072031

TCMAT4



SUBTROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042018

2100 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.7N  49.2W AT 07/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT  13 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.

34 KT.......120NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS..130NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.7N  49.2W AT 07/2100Z

AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.2N  49.1W



FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 41.0N  49.5W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT...120NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 42.3N  48.5W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT...100NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 44.0N  46.0W

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.7N  49.2W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z



$$

FORECASTER AVILA



2018-08-08 07:31

WTNT24 KNHC 071454

TCMAT4



SUBTROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042018

1500 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.9N  48.5W AT 07/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT  14 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.

34 KT.......140NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS..120NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.9N  48.5W AT 07/1500Z

AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N  48.2W



FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 41.0N  48.5W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT...140NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 42.7N  48.5W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT...120NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 44.0N  47.0W

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.9N  48.5W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z



$$

FORECASTER AVILA